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Messages - Rodius

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 28, 2020, 12:33:56 PM »
Myself I figure a few months old is fine. Science isn’t advancing that fast.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 27, 2020, 03:11:58 PM »
Yes, the problem is totally over in Europe.

In NYC, it IS over, because we have herd immunity.

bbr2315, can you show me current statistics which show this?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 11:41:39 AM »
^ And once again bbr is blind to facts, and lies instead, the Lancet article was published on September 25, 2020.

Bbr, are you just stupid or are you a liar and a troll. You are pure noise and provide nothing to this forum.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 21, 2020, 10:32:49 PM »
We should allow my ice age pet theory talk in every thread again so all of you can once again have a common enemy and stop fighting w eachother.  8)

I actually would like to be taken off moderation please // I think my posting has improved pretty dramatically but obviously my observations are impartial // often my posts contain timely information which is often reposted hours later to the detriment of discussion (i.e. Archimid's repost of the same COVID study today in that thread)
Good news, with a consensus among the moderators you are off moderation, with the following caveats:
* Ice age pet theory to be discussed only in a designated thread that you can open in Cryosphere-Permafrost section.
* No Nazi name calling and other impolite stuff.
What if I ask for a pony. Will I get a pony? Let's be reasonable here. I really need a pony.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 17, 2020, 12:20:27 PM »

- whether a virus is "small" or "big" of course depends on what to compare to. Covid is worse than flu, but not anywhere near the league of, say, plague. Black death could kill 50% of population at the best of its times. We have a long way to go till that.

Plague (Yersinia pestis) is nothing, as long as we have antibiotics and half way decent hygiene. The Ebola outbreak of  2014 killed 11,000 people in 2 years. H1N1 caused 151,700-575,400 worldwide deaths in a year, without quarentines and with minimal effort to fight it.

  Covid 19 is responsible for at least 773,497 in little more than 7 months with a mostly shutdown world maximum awarness, masking and distancing measures and mostly out of coronavirus season.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 06:34:44 PM »
James Annan has an interesting thread on Twitter this morning where he discusses a new antibody study in the UK. The study, not peer reviewed yet, is reported in the Guardian. The take home is that 6% of the UK population has antibodies. Total COVID-19 deaths reported on Worldometers is 41,329, which would reflect an IFR of just above 1% if both the serology and death numbers are accurate.

There's that number again but don't worry. Most of those who have died are older or have comorbidities so f'em.

<That was of course what a lot of actual policies came down too. But this probably refers to the earlier debate. Do debate the points and try to interpret things you disagree with in a non personal manner. The latter part is also just a general note. kassy>

Fair enough.

I guess the point is that the true IFR is likely around 1%.

In New York State the fatality rate is currently 1690 deaths per million residents. This would be an IFR of 0.17% if every New York State resident had contracted the disease. Tests, however indicate that about 25% of NYC residents were infected and perhaps as little as 5% of non metro residents. Yet I see people tossing around estimates of 0.1% or 0.2% with absolutely nothing to back that number up. This thing is at least 10 times as deadly as the flu.

And the comparison to the flu from a science perspective is highly dangerous as well. This disease's infectious path may be the respiratory tract but the science has shown it is a vascular disease, able to damage organs throughout the body, wherever there are high concentrations of ACE2 receptors. People have pulmonary embolisms, heart attacks, permanently damaged kidneys, lungs and hearts and as yet unexplained neurological damage. This is not the freakin' flu.

(When I recreated my account 2 days ago, I did it with the intention of explaining more thoroughly my reason for leaving this site. The comment did not pass moderation and I am fine with that. Below is a condensed version.)

1. I was attracted to this site in 2013 by its grounding in science.
2. I am dismayed by persons on this thread for whom I had developed a great deal of respect who have abandoned all science in arguing how inconsequential this disease is.
3. This has caused me to question in a very personal way why I come here.

I hope this comment passes muster.

<I think you are wrong on count 2. Neven chose a category in his description. The actual detail was not really important because it was more about the media in general. One problem is that we make a division when someone foregrounds an issue and then people focus on the less important part as intended by the poster.

If we would all be on voice comms you can ask quick questions to clarify. Here we can´t but we can ask slow questions before jumping to conclusions.

This is a general point not for SH per se.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:28:53 AM »
Yes, but you obviously have trouble reading it correctly because of bias.

That is some chutzpah accusing Oren of all people to be biased. You, as the person who cites misinformation all the time.

You lost your track and it's horrible to watch. I wish you'd stop discrediting yourself and this forum. You make me being ashamed of being a part of this.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 23, 2020, 02:50:51 AM »
This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.
Shared humanity I would like to take the opportunity to apologize unreservedly to you.
I misinterpreted one of your earlier comments as to the severity of this virus and attacked your comment needlessly .
I would suggest a mortally rate of 2.5 plus 2.5 minus 1 .
I do this in public rather than by PM as I believe we must protect our integrity and acknowledge error honestly to maintain respect of our  peers  on this forum .

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2019, 07:11:15 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 2nd highest value, behind only 2018 with an average daily drop of -80,251 km^2. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2019, 11:22:03 AM »
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.

Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 06, 2018, 04:03:28 AM »
I would not be surprised if a lot of the waviness goes away should the Hudson (and Okhotsk for later in the season) be taken out of the statistics.
But I think the physical mechanism is that once a sea or a certain regional part commences freezing in earnest, it goes rapidly. I guess first the water is cooled and mixed downward, then at some point the whole lot is ready to freeze. Check out the behavior of Laptev and then Kara this year - waits forever, then goes boom.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2018, 09:33:03 AM »
This morning, after a long illness, my computer died.
The autopsy tomorrow may determine whether resurrection is possible or what can be rescued from the corpse.

At least the files are in the cloud, but no machine means no updates and no more posts until........?

Sorry all.

This is really sad.

It's ridiculous that in this day and age that a hardware deficiency should upset the continuity of this thread.

I would argue that GC (Gerontocrat - I hope its That's OK with you as an abbreviation) is performing a public service with his analyses and thoughtful comments so why don't we as a community crowdfund a replacement for him.

I would be prepared to organise a GoFundMe crowdfunding for say 3000 USD to allow GC to get some decent hardware.

If crowdfunders can raise 5000 USD for a new sofa for Elon Musk then I think this is the least the Arctic Sea Forum participants can do to show their appreciation of GC.

What do you think GC?

What do the other participants think?

Neven - Sorry to be off-topic  but I think the continuity of this "Area and Extent" thread is important - Please start a new thread if you think its appropriate.

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