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Messages - kassy

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 04:55:00 PM »
The 2019 peer-reviewed publication entitled "Propagation and Vertical Structure of the Tidal Flow in Nares Strait" is open-access at

while non-peer reviewed data (1881 through 2012) and my interpretation of them can be accessed at

Enjoy and stay healthy ;-)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 01:36:51 PM »
We are not only trapped inside with the virus, but the virus is also trapped inside with us.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:43:27 AM »
methinks some of you could use some light

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 04:34:13 AM »
Church in the age of COVID-19.  ;)

Race Your Engine
We need more communal wine

Honk in time with flashers
When's the intermission?

The FSM welcomes Automated Automotive Adoration!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 30, 2020, 02:53:22 AM »
Thank you as usual uniquorn.
To anyone who thinks nothing unusual has happened re Fram export, I recommend to play the animation and not focus on Fram itself, where a trickle from the northeast can be seen all winter, but on some random ice shape below the pole. One can see how the ice moves in a random walk fashion for several months, mostly moving nowhere with a slight southern drift. But then starting around mid-February a big sweep comes along, and the ice from the pole moves all the way to the Fram finish line, a distance of more than 1000 km IIRC. This is significant volume gone, and an important piece of the Arctic's defenses against the melting season.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 03:28:28 PM »
BTW, NeilT could be entirely right, of course. He to me represents the current level our collective consciousness is at.

What we have here, is a sure sign of a failed system that a) causes a pandemic, b) causes massive damage because of the decade-long degeneration of populations due to malnutrition and over-medication, and c) causes a highly deficient response due to underfunding, corner cutting and maintaining that health care is a privilege, not a right.

But as NeilT says, this sign will be used as an argument to double down on the system. And given the many NeilTs in the world, it will probably receive wide support. I mean, just look at that insanely corrupt stimulus package that was pushed down everybody's throat in the world's largest banana republic. One could describe it as 'ironic', if it wasn't so criminally murderous.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:07:04 PM »
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
The graphs show the same.

Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:43:54 PM »
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 26, 2020, 01:42:48 PM »
I suspect that it is due to heavy cloud cover and/or other atmospheric conditions at this time of year.

Since it's moving around, i agree!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 10:52:01 AM »
The involuntary DNR Do Not Resuscitate posts were interesting.
As a mid 70s male with ongoing breathing problems I'll make sure to sign a DNR before I'm hauled off.
I'd done so in the past and survived. This time it might save my bed and ventilator for someone more likely to benefit.

When adding up the possible death counts, those unable to receive life saving interventions unrelated to CV19 need to be taken into account.
I've one friend already who isn't having her cancer treated as rapidly as would have been the case if the pandemic wasn't at our door.

Wikipedia has decent articles on the Black Death & The Black Death in England that speculate on the effect on politics, religion and the economy.

Stay Isolated. Stay in Touch

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 08:08:45 AM »
Since when have people decided that only old people die from COVID-19? Are we scientists or not?
It's all a question of percentages.
South Korea statistics are quite accurate as they have done extensive testing, also of asymptomatic cases, and their hospitals were not overwhelmed. So these are very reasonable to optimistic stats. Please bear in mind many cases in SK have still not resolved, so death rate could still go up even under these assumptions.
They show roughly (see image for stats updated to March 16):
0.1% for ages 30-49
0.4% for 50-59
1.4% for 60-69
5.3% for 70-79
9.2% for 80+

These may seem like negligible percentages but multiplied by big numbers they add up to hundreds of thousands. Actual CFRs may vary based on luck, medical know-how, prevalence of preexisting medical conditions, general health of the population. Total case counts and transient case loads will vary based on quarantine and other policies.
My little spreadsheet says over 2 million dead expected in the US, assuming 70% total infection rate and using SK CFR. I think that's quite a lot of dead people.
Add hospital overwhelm and deaths could easily double or triple or even quadruple, depending on infection patterns and management strategy.

To all, make your own assumptions as you please - but please don't throw numbers around without calculating them based on your assumptions.

Science / Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« on: March 25, 2020, 04:10:34 AM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 01:58:38 PM »
Would the Republican Party be finally willing to die to save all of our grandchildren??

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 24, 2020, 01:01:25 PM »
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.

Why not just call it very bad BBBO?
Sea 3BO?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 05:59:55 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: March 23, 2020, 05:27:03 PM »
Here is an English language transcript of the podcast called "Arctic Drift" from the MOSAiC website that is otherwise only available in German. It was posted there on 21. March but it the "now" it refers to was probably sometime in the week of the 15th March, when the Polarstern was drifting South rather rapidly.


Commentator Audio Now.....The  Audio-Logbook.

Torsten Kanzow:  my name is Torsten Kanzow: and I’m leader of the third leg of MOSAiC. I’m a physical oceanographer and work at the Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar- and Ocean- Research.

Commentator: In the meantime, the crew of the third leg of the MOSAiC expedition has reached the Icebreaker Polarstern and is already continuing scientific work. The expedition leader Torsten Kanzow and his team had to endure a journey there that was not only a very arduous and challenging, but also took much longer than originally planned.
Torsten Kanzow: we successfully completed the journey here to the MOSAiC ice floe, to the Polarstern, on board a Russian icebreaker the Captain Dranitsyn, and the journey from Tromsø up to 88 degrees North, almost to the North Pole   took a total of four weeks. And I would say it featured a number of challenges.  Immediately after our departure from Tromsø on 27. January we anchored in a neighbouring fjord for the first four or five days because we had to weather the bad conditions on the open ocean and could only continue when they’d passed. We reached the edge of the ice in the Barents sea relatively quickly
but then we suffered an excruciating slow passage through the ice that lasted for several weeks and during that time it wasn’t really predictable how long it would take until we reached the ice floe. We tried to maintain a  lot of contact with the Alfred-Wegener-Institute, that was closely following what we were doing. At some stage we realised that to some extent  it was going to be a battle with the fuel reserves of the Dranitsyn, so that at some point different options as to how we could manage the exchange with the participants of the previous leg were brought up. There was lots of discussion about whether perhaps helicopters could succeed in bridging the distance between the Dranitsyn and the Polarstern for the last part of the trip or whether the journey time of the Dranitsyn should be extended, and in the end the last variant was chosen. This was because what our home base in Bremerhaven was able to organise was that, in effect, another icebreaker would set off to sail in the direction of the Dranitsyn, to meet her in the ice  as she was returning to Tromsø after  having brought us to the floe, and refuel her. 

Torsten Kanzow: we actually arrived at the floe at the beginning of March, when the conditions had already changed so that we could see the first light of the Arctic dawn, whereas during the whole journey there we’d been in complete darkness, and so I think naturally we were very, very  relieved when we finally arrived. This is because for many of the expedition’s participants it was of decisive importance to be able to set up their experiments and do on site research. After months and in some cases years of preparation for many of us it would have been very, very distressing and shattering if we hadn’t managed to get here. So, we were very, very glad when we covered the last miles and were able to moor on the MOSAiC floe.

Commentator: after the long and gruelling trip, even before he arrived at Polarstern itself, the new expedition leader was rewarded with a visual treat.

Torsten Kanzow: as soon as we came within range of  the helicopter, it was already the case for me that I was flown to the Polarstern as part of the vanguard from the Dranitsyn, so to speak, to arrange details of the exchange between the participants of the second and third legs. What that meant was that the vanguard was able to actually observe the observatory from the air and that on a very, very beautiful day on which the dawn light could be clearly seen for the first time.  It was an absolutely breath-taking flight and an awesome sight. Then at the first opportunity after I landed,  I looked out of the window of the Polarstern at the observatory and it was of course totally, totally different to just looking at something I had, till then, only known from pictures. Then came the realisation that I was there at last and that all that travelling had been worth it.

Torsten Kanzow: as it happened, I went to the Ocean-City on the day of my arrival. My colleagues, whom I know from the Alfred-Wegener-Institute had invited me there. In the  Ocean-City measurements of the ocean are being made, mainly physical measurements, but water samples are also being taken. My colleagues are active there almost every single day and what it involves is a small tent that has been placed on pontoons on the ice and, in the middle of the tent there is a hole through the ice, so that you can see through the sea ice down to the water. Measuring instruments are put into the water, through this hole, to allow measurements and samples to be made at depths of up to 4000 metres.

Commentator: The handover of the scientific monitoring stations on the ice floe took several days and was hampered the extreme temperatures there. After successful completion of the handover the new team of leg three is correspondingly relieved and motivated to be able to finally get on with their real work.

Torsten Kanzow: It was a phase during which we had extremely low temperatures. We had temperatures of around minus 40. We had good visibility, but it was very, very cold. At such cold temperatures the mechanical devices on the ships and all the mechanical devices that are required to move freight from one ship to other are naturally operating at the limit of their capabilities.  The hydraulic systems of the cranes were not operating well. In addition, we had the situation that  the Dranitsyn wasn’t moored directly next to the Polarstern, but a kilometre away on the same floe. This was done on purpose to hinder any destruction of the ice in the vicinity of the Polarstern as a result of the arrival of the Dranitsyn. So, our colleagues prepared a sort of small road on the ice floe.   A path on the ice was cleared and for the first couple of days  the exchange of materials and personnel was really rather sluggish, because of the problems that I’ve just mentioned, but then things improved as the handling of the individual pieces of equipment could be, so to speak, better adapted to the conditions. And so, after five or six says we were through with the exchange and hadn’t just transferred all the freight from the Dranitsyn to the Polarstern, but also all the personnel, who were conveyed from one ship to the other on sleds. This was a phase during which, at the same time, the scientists from the second leg had to hand over and explain the use experimental equipment and sensors. It was a very, very intense period. But I believe that I, and everyone else who participated, was very glad when it ended and one could get cracking on one’s own.  We all appreciated it a lot to have the floe in our hands, so to speak, and to get to work as individual teams.

Commentator: Despite this, even for Kanzow and his team, the new surroundings are still very unfamiliar and so even after the first few days he still doesn’t feel quite at home.

Torsten Kanzow: I believe that that takes just a little more time. I haven’t yet inspected everything. Naturally, to begin with, we were faced with the challenge of familiarising ourselves with everything and setting up our daily routines, and then getting on with our projects. I was very strongly involved in events here on board and couldn’t be out in the field as often as many of my colleagues. I hope that that will now soon change. In particular, its self-explanatory that we don’t just have to keep the scientific side of things going, but we must also be logistically in the position to service and maintain our infrastructure to ensure that we can always be reached, especially by air. I am already active in this respect and am trying to fulfil this part of my responsibilities

Commentator: Since a few days after the arrival of the first scientists of leg one in September the sun hasn’t risen above the horizon. The polar night is now coming to an end. During the last week it’s gradually been getting lighter and the first sunrise can be seen.

Torsten Kanzow:  We would have been really happy to happy to experience the moment of seeing the sun for the first time, but today we didn’t see it. It wasn’t visible for the whole day, because we have had very, very strong winds here, bad visibility and to some extent low cloud. So today wasn’t much different from the day before. It was an exciting day, because our position shifted quite a lot and we were kept very busy organising how we could protect certain pieces of equipment from cracks in the ice. It began yesterday and has continued till now. That meant that we had a lot of practical worries to deal with rather than concerning ourselves about the sun. However, a celebration party is planned to welcome the sun. We still have to decide on the day, because at the moment the weather  really isn’t good enough for grilling outside. 

Commentator: Because of the extreme conditions in the Arctic, both the scientists and the technical staff are continually confronted with new challenges. The new expedition leader is particularly impressed by the tireless efforts of the logistics team.

Torsten Kanzow: When we arrived on the floe, a fleet of various vehicles was handed over to us. We could move around on the floe with them or use them, for instance to prepare a landing strip. It included  2 Pisten-Bullis and 8 Skidoos. But then within a few days, because of the extremely low temperatures and other technical defects we were only in a position to start 3 of the Skidoos and neither of the Pisten-Bullis could be used.  That meant that we were able to see with our own eyes how quickly the technical requirements, that are a prerequisite for working in the field here, can become shaken or even be forgone as the result of extremes of temperature and other technical difficulties.  What particularly impresses me was how the people here are applying themselves to getting all our equipment back into working order under these extreme conditions. Motors are being dismantled and parts removed, fuel lines cleaned and other diverse operations carried out at temperatures of minus 30 or minus 40. So, by now we already have 7 of the skidoos up and running  and today both Pisten-Bullis were running again. That naturally requires  the logistics people to invest a lot of energy in keeping us fully operational.

Commentator: Apart from the scientific projects the handover to the crew of the next leg must also be planned. This is should or rather must take place by air. The existing airstrip must be modified for this.

Torsten Kanzow: Until now, one of the foci of my work was to try and find and survey a site that would be suitable for a landing strip. This is because the exchange of the next cohort of scientists at the beginning of April should be taking place by air. That’s something to which we must give priority. We do have a landing strip already, but it’s not suitable for the type of aircraft that we are planning to deploy for the exchange. So we’re working on an alternative, but very recently the conditions changed rather abruptly as a result of the mobility of the ice, through cracks and leads that have appeared in the ice. I believe that we now have to work in parallel to ensure that working conditions on the ice remain safe. That must certainly be a focus that is assured or to see, after the storm that we are currently experiencing has ended, how we are still able to get to our measuring equipment.  How can we make sure that it‘s possible to carry on working safely? I think that’s one focus and another one is to work on the options for the landing strip. A third focus, that I am attempting to set up scientifically, is to enable physical oceanographic measurements to be carried out. Together with other scientists we are developing an experiment to understand the processes that go on in these areas of open water that appear as the result of cracks and leads opening and that are in direct contact with the atmosphere. That’s a situation that interests many of us here. It’s a situation in which a lot of  oceanic heat is released into the atmosphere, and that affects the ocean, which cools as the result of sea ice being formed, while on the other hand, how can I say it,  the atmosphere gets a source of energy that can drive atmospheric circulation. That’s where we are at the moment, scientifically preparing things somewhat and it’s a theme that will keep me occupied in the coming weeks.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 23, 2020, 06:38:59 AM »
Dudley Simpson Orchestra - Theme From 'Blake's 7' (i) (1978)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 09:45:33 AM »
Why does Germany have such a low coronavirus death rate?

Paywalled, so here is the whole thing:

Scientists are struggling to understand why the death rate from the coronavirus is so much lower in Germany than other countries. Germany has seen just 52 deaths from the virus so far despite recording 18,361 infections — more than anywhere except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.
That represents a fatality rate of just 0.3 per cent, compared to 7.9 per cent in Italy — raising hopes Germany might be doing something right that other countries can follow.
The disparity has even led to allegations of a German cover-up by the Italian far-Right. But experts have cautioned that Germany may simply be at an earlier stage of the pandemic, and that death rates here may soon catch up.
But they also point to other factors that may be helping keep the German death rate down.
“Germany has had a very aggressive testing process,” Dr Mike Ryan, health emergencies director at the World Health Organisation (WHO) said. “So the number of tests maybe detecting more mild cases.
“From the beginning, we have very systematically called upon our doctors to test people,” Prof Lothar Wieler of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute said.
“We can provide testing to a high degree so that we can easily look into the beginnings of the epidemic."
“Test, test, test” has become the WHO’s mantra in fighting the coronavirus, and experts say Germany’s vigorous testing programme may be doing more than just keeping the death rate down by documenting more cases.
“Italy has a much older population. And in many ways Italy is the poster child for living longer lives, but unfortunately in this case having an older population means the fatality rate may appear higher,” Dr Ryan said.
Official figures show that rates of infection among the most vulnerable age group, those aged 60 and above, are much lower in Germany than elsewhere.
That may just be a case of luck, but it may be that by identifying cases early, Germany has been able to track chains of infection and prevent the virus reaching the most vulnerable.
“There is a very big systemic difference between Germany and other countries,” Christian Drosten, the leading virologist at Berlin’s Charite teaching hospital, told Watson magazine.
“Our regulations for the introduction of new test procedures are very liberal. In other countries, there is a central authority that does all the testing for new diseases.”
By contrast, in Germany any doctor can perform a coronavirus test and public health insurance will pay. Germany is not the only country to record a lower death rate. In South Korea fatalities have also been much lower than the general trend.
“In South Korea it appears it was probably a combination of factors, rather than just one,” says Suerie Moon of the Graduate Institute in Geneva. “Initial cases were among the young, and focused around one church which made it easier for the authorities to contain. But it appears testing also played a crucial role.”
Other differences in the German health system may also be significant. The country has far more intensive care (ICU) beds than anywhere else in Europe.
Intensive care beds can mean the difference between life and death for those who become seriously ill with the virus, and dire reports from northern Italy have told of doctors being forced to choose which patients get them.
Germany has 28,000 ICU beds. By contrast, the UK has just 4,000. And 25,000 of Germany’s already have the ventilators seriously ill patients need.
At the outbreak of the crisis, Germany had 29.2 intensive care beds per 100,000 people. Italy had 12.5. The UK had just 6.6.
In part, that is because of the different way healthcare is funded in Germany. Public health insurance is compulsory and collected at source alongside income tax — but it is passed directly to insurance funds and never enters government coffers, effectively firewalling health funding.
Germany may be better prepared for the virus than most of its neighbours, but it may yet need all the beds it has. Authorities here have warned people not to be complacent about the death rate.
“This is just the beginning for Germany,” said Prof Wieler of the Robert Koch Institute. “If you imagine an epidemic like a curve, then there are countries that are simply further along it.”

Link >>

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:42:00 AM »
S E A   R E S E A R C H   S O C I E T Y ' S   A P P E A L   T O
T H E  G O V E R N M E N T S  W O R L D - W I D E  :


Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are computer models of the world's atmosphere based on observations and assumptions if there are no direct information available. World emissions shutdowns are a novel opportunity to learn about how climate system responds under different circumstances that cannot be normally experimentally checked. It is vitally important for the world's governments not to shut down meteorological measurements. Indeed, efforts must increase to use opportunity to test and search regional responses of the highly unusual situation. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and national meteorological organisations must quickly come up with new research proposals to gain every possible bit of information as this helps to understand how world's climate will respond as the world moves towards ZERO emissions. It is a tremendous tragedy if this unique opportunity to find more about how our atmosphere operates is lost. We do not foresee many situations like this rising when large world regions turn their lights off one after another. Modelling SO2, N2O, O3, CFC, CO2, CH4, CO shut downs.

Sponsors, please look at serious proposals to make research offers right now!
Let's make something positive happen out of this coronavirus calamity.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 20, 2020, 09:51:22 AM »
Climate shocks in just one country could disrupt global food supply

   A study looked at how severe drought could hit U.S. wheat harvests
    - and ripple around the world, driving up food prices
  by Thin Lei Win, Thomson Reuters Foundation

ROME, March 20 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Catastrophic crop failures caused by extreme weather in just one country could disrupt global food supplies and drive price spikes in an interconnected world, exposing how climate change threatens global stability, researchers said on Friday.

They examined how the global trade and supplies of wheat, a crop used for food staples like bread and pasta, would be affected by four years of severe drought in the United States, one of the world's top exporters of the grain.

Based on two models of how countries could try to meet their needs, an international research team found the United States would deplete nearly all its wheat reserves after four years in both scenarios, while global stocks could drop by 31%.

The 174 countries to which America exports wheat would see their reserves decrease, even though they did not themselves suffer failed harvests, according to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems.

"It affects almost every country in the world because the U.S. has so many trade links," said lead author Alison Heslin, a researcher at Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Those links mean there is a cascading effect, either directly from the United States or via one of its trading partners, which could reduce the amount of wheat available and increase prices, she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

As reserves are depleted, changes in production would have a bigger impact on the price of food, Heslin added.

Reduced global reserves would also mean a smaller buffer against future shocks such as a drought in other wheat-producing nations like Russia or France, she said.

Scientists have warned hotter temperatures and more erratic rainfall could increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with multi-year droughts already wreaking havoc in many nations.

Five years of recurring droughts have destroyed maize and bean harvests in Central America's Dry Corridor, for example, leaving poor farmers struggling to feed their families and pushing them to migrate, the United Nations said in 2019.

The wheat study was based on data from the 1930s American Dust Bowl disaster when maize and wheat production plummeted due to intense drought, higher temperatures and strong winds, causing thousands of deaths.

Heslin said global food security was key to people's health and safety, with international food price spikes in 2008 and 2011 curtailing families' ability to purchase food and rattling political stability as people protested on the streets.

Maintaining strategic food reserves and a diverse set of trading partners could help countries reduce risks, she added.

Neven can you please unsticky the freezing season thread and sticky the melting season one? Thanks.
(Sorry for OT, I know your frequent this thread)

<Done, wishing I could set Biden non-sticky; N.>

PIOMAS has updated gridded thickness data to day 75, which would normally be the 15th of March. Because a PIOMAS has no leap years, it ends in some graphs at the 16th.
Any way volume calculated from this thickness was 22.10 [km3], 8th lowest for day 75.
Here is the animation of March sofar.

Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 18, 2020, 07:37:00 AM »
Coronavirus and atmospheric concentrations of CO2

Scripps Oceanography geochemist Ralph Keeling said fossil fuel use would have to decline by about 10 percent around the world and would need to be sustained for a year to show up clearly in carbon dioxide levels.

History has shown that carbon dioxide levels typically resume their climb quickly as normal economic activity rebounds. If there is any benefit of the coronavirus event in terms of slowing the pace of climate change, it could be the changing of people’s travel and work habits in ways that lead to sustained reductions in fossil fuel use. Only those kinds of long-term systemic reductions will change the trajectory of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, Keeling said.

What does it take for the coronavirus (or other major economic events) to affect global carbon dioxide readings?


However, UK emissions of CO2 have remained lower after 2007/2008 crash.

UK's carbon footprint.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 11:31:09 PM »
From here in the UK....

To me (alone it appears?) it apears that the gods/fates are pretty pizzed at the selfissh, I ,Me,Mine, mentality which seems to be now 'deep rooted' in Society and so 'WE' are now being given a radical work over by 'Nature' Herself?

How many 'Socialist Actions' are now being rolled out, only 3 months away from a thumping 80 seat majority for the "I ,Me,Mine" mentality surely needed for such a result? How do such voters reconcile their choice on Dec 12th with the 'Reality' now (apparently?) needed?

All the folk whining for "Get Brexit Done" are now getting a real time view of just what such ' Splendid Isolation' means (prior to our severing contacts with our European Partners on Jan 1st?) to the UK?

All the folk who ignored the disabled/unemployed now face 'living' under their 98 quid a week reality....... (eat yer oats guys & all will be well!!!!)

The ''silent move' to a majority of rented accomodation now comes front and centre as folk try and make their '98 Quid' cover rent and 'leccy/gas/food'......

We may have been 'whining ,annoying voices' in the recent past but now 'Millions' will face our 'fate'..... for months beyond their 'repossession' date.....

And mortgages?

We saw in the 80's how 'compassionate' such comps were (and the millions left in negative equity for decades?)

All the folk 'turning their backs' on the 130,000 'needless'  dead since 2010 are now losing their shiite about 71 dead!!!!!!

Get Real folks!!!

You, over the past ten years.; have voted for 'YOU' alone......time to think of 'OTHERS'?

'They've done it to us' (whilst you wilfully ignored?) now they'll do it to you (and your loved ones!!!) be sure of it!!!


EDIT: Maybe ALL that a 'Corbyn Govt' promised suddenly appears more 'humane' now eh?

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: March 17, 2020, 08:17:00 PM »
Very large lead opened up on bow radar this morning

blumenkraft you beat me to it while i was changing the size of this animation to help people with low bandwidth  ;D

I agree its quite unclear unless you see it rendered in 3d, I will work on a way to animation the timeseries in 3d

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2020, 02:35:46 PM »
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.
Good question.

It's all down to the capability of the NSIDC satellite, which sends data from 625 km2 squares of the Arctic. The NSIDC algorthm then says if the signal says a square is more than 15% ice, that square goes into the extent figure as 100%. The area data for any square above 15% ice is updated according to the percentage estimated from the signal, (which is prone to greater error.) Newer satellites with higher resolution produce a lower difference between the two measures.

During the melting season (see first graph) the difference between Extent and Area increases from about 1.25 to 2.5 million km2 . This is because the ice pack becomes very fragmented. When freezing gets underway the pack becomes much more solid and the difference declines. 

We are in the period when this difference starts to grow. The second graph takes a closer look a March. It suggests on average a hiccup up this week, then a drop before the difference grows when the melting season gets into full swing. However, individual years can e very different.

From the two tables attached you can see that the NSIDC data for the EXTENT of the central arctic seas is still at 100% with no melt, while the AREA table shows melt has started for many of these seas.

ps: 2020 saw a recovery in sea ice extent - meaning a lot of thin and fragile ice. The stormy weather may be responsible for breaking up and fragmenting much of this ice, which shows in the area abut not the extent data

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 11:23:52 PM »
Assholes Who Ridiculed Preparations For the Covid-19 Pandemic Are Having a Change of Heart

Newt Gingrich on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show on February 27, 2020 ridiculing San Francisco for declaring a state of emergency over covid-19

... “I think the great irony of all this, is that the city of San Francisco, in its usual irresponsible way, has already declared an emergency even though no one in San Francisco has so far shown that they have the disease,” Gingrich said on Sean Hannity’s show on February 27.

When Gingrich made those comments on February 27, just 14 people had died in Italy, a number that’s now at 1,809 deaths and 24,747 cases. Gingrich is living in Italy because his wife is the U.S. ambassador to the Vatican.

... Newt Gingrich was on Fox News this morning explaining that all Americans should prepare for the covid-19 pandemic. But Gingrich has pulled quite a 180 during a very short period of time. Just a few weeks ago the former Republican Speaker of the House was on Fox News ridiculing San Francisco for making preparations as the threat of the new coronavirus became clear to people who were paying attention. And Gingrich’s about-face seems to be part of a larger trend of assholes changing their minds about the seriousness of the public health threat that has infected at least 3,813 Americans and killed 69 in the U.S. alone.

Compare those comments in February to what Gingrich is saying now on shows like Fox and Friends. Gingrich even wrote an op-ed in Newsweek yesterday, titled “I am in Italy amid the coronavirus crisis. American must act now—and act big,” warning that, “Faced with a pandemic threat, history teaches us it is far better to be over prepared than underprepared.”

“We in America can learn a lot of lessons from what’s happening, particularly in Northern Italy,” Gingrich said.

... Not everyone has turned the corner on their attitude about covid-19 yet.

Former Milwaukee sheriff and Trump supporter David A. Clarke Jr. told his Twitter followers over the weekend to go out in defiance of quarantines, adding, “If government doesn’t stop this foolishness...STAY IN THE STREETS.” And Ron Paul, a libertarian icon and former Congressman, also published a new blog post today suggesting the covid-19 pandemic was a “big hoax” to justify the implementation of martial law.

... There were plenty of people who took this seriously from the beginning. You don’t need to let people like Newt Gingrich warn about the covid-19 threat just because Americans have the collective memory of a fucking goldfish.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 15, 2020, 06:39:27 PM »
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.

This week's ice drift map.  8)

Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 15, 2020, 06:11:02 PM »
My Sunday evening posting about the Mauna Loa CO2 concentration is ready.

Week beginning on March 8, 2020:     414.11 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           412.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.27 ppm
Last updated: March 15, 2020

The annual increase is below the range I thought it would be last week. Six out of seven days had "valid" values, with only small intra-day variations.

Next week last year had an average of 411.8 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm is what I expect.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 09:45:56 AM »
Sometimes I am tempted to change my vote to the hundreds of millions, as I see us dropping the ball on stopping this. I originally meant to make votes changeable (messed that up).
Anybody wish they could change what they voted?

I voted 100 million plus.
I am sticking with it.
My fear when I first heard about it was entirely based around how well the virus spreads and being able to spread without symptoms.
I also figured that the world would not do enough until it is too late.

Nothing has happened since I thought that to change my thinking. This is going to be a painful year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 14, 2020, 06:11:11 PM »
Alright, I finally found the actual thread. Sorry about creating a clone! >_<

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 11:37:41 AM »
"Coronavirus Health Advice - James Robb, MD FCAP
Retired professor of pathology at UC San Diego
05 March 2020-20

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold

2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.

3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27C (78-80F) degrees. It hates the sun.

4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.

5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.

6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. Normal laundry detergent will kill it.

7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.

8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.

9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.

10. Can't emphasize enough - drink plenty of water!

You are spreading fake news.

There are several versions of the above text circulating on social media.  Some versions say it's from James Robb, other versions say it's from Stanford researchers, yet other versions say it's from Chinese researchers.  None of that is true.

See here for fact-check:

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 14, 2020, 09:11:43 AM »

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: March 13, 2020, 09:39:53 PM »
About the Antarctic core collection now at Oregon State University.  It was an archive facility at FSU. Most of the cores were collected off the USNS Eltanin, run by Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and funded by the National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs.  The cores were taken by dropping weighted pipes into the bottom to collect layers of sediments. The ship also did large numbers of water sampling as well as mapping the ocean bottom by geophysical methods.

Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: March 13, 2020, 06:52:18 PM »
MARCH UPDATE - ENSO Neutral, possible La Nina tendency

issued by
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 March 2020
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis:  ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance).

During February 2020, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were evident across the western, central, and far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nino-3.4 and Nino-3 indices were near-to-above average (+0.5°C and +0.1°C, respectively), with the Nino-4 and Nino-1+2 indices warmer, at +1.1°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained above average during the month [Fig. 3], with positive anomalies spanning the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific, from the surface to ~150m depth [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level westerly wind anomalies persisted over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern half of the basin. Tropical convection remained suppressed over Indonesia and was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the equatorial Southern Oscillation index (SOI) was negative, the traditional SOI was near average. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere fall. Despite elevated Nino 3.4 index values in the near-term, the forecaster consensus expects the Nino-3.4 index values will decrease gradually through the spring and summer. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2020.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to:

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740[/size]

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 05:16:39 PM »
The myth of “China originally hid the outbreak” is irrational, vicious and false.
It's time to move on from vapid virtue-signaling and everyone singing kumbaya to read the wrenching full account -- and censorship / reprimands that continue to this day -- written by the ER head doctor Ai Fen 艾芬 who provided the whistle that the first whistleblower drs used.

The govt knew they had a new type of coronavirus outbreak in mid-November. The disease had been raging in Wuhan for some time with the earliest hospital admissions in mid November. ER and respiratory doctors suspected immediately the "unresponsive atypical pneumonia" was related to SARS.

Metagenomic DNA sequencing from alveolar lavage just takes overnight; tBlastn at GenBank another five minutes to kick out beta Coronaviridae as the best hit (indeed SARS would be at the top of the stack at 97% identity).

So they knew because China has perhaps a million molecular biologists at the Ph.D level and beyond; the instruments are all made there as are many key bioinformatic algorithms. Some idiot at CDC offered assistance to China from US virological know-how -- it's the other way around.

This patient additionally had a bacterial infection with Ps aeruginosa, a common intractable opportunistic pathogen along with 46 other bacterial species of unknown relevance. Anti-virals alone wouldn't affect outcome in this situation.
"A 55 year-old from Hubei province contracted Covid-19 on November 17 [ie had become so ill that he went to the hospital]. From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day...."

There are new 'insider' epidemiology numbers in the above links; perhaps someone else here can do the comparisons with official releases. Divergences may be continuing up to the present date.

The lead scientist Shi Zhengli 石正丽 spent a decade collecting bat coronaviruses all over China.  Back at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, her large lab had been experimentally modifying the spike protein S from 2006 on to study for example how a 12 bp insertion engineered furin site interacting with human ACE2 receptor changes infectivity, species barriers and vaccine design (common and valid pursuits, prompt open access articles, funded in part by grants from the US).

She immediately suspected but couldn't confirm the virus escaped from her lab, not from a dropped test tube or infected lab tech but from flawed disposal.

Labs generate quite a volume of daily waste, quite a bit biological. For example, to ramp up production of a viral spike protein by growing live virus on multiple human cell lines, where does the 100 liters of left-over media go after centrifuging?

Some waste gets autoclaved, a lot gets flushed down the drain, lesser amounts go to an expensive secure incinerator, and the rest is trucked to the town dump in plastic bags to be compacted by a large bulldozer. In the US, I've seen voluminous hospital waste (syringes, bedding, bandaging etc) escaping our local landfill into the creek so this is hardly an issue just for China. The recent BSL-4 upgrade at WIV (and nationwide directives) likely addressed this.

The problem Chinese authorities have  in controlling the narrative is that 'the internet never forgets'. There's really no way to delete peer-reviewed articles from PubMed. Even if you get the journal to retract the article, PubMed will just add a note to that effect to the top of the abstract. The full text remains mirrored on PubMedCentral in multiple countries, clouds and personal computers.

It's astonishing shocking to read the research that went on with coronaviruses over the last 15 years both in China and the US. Early on, the danger wasn't recognized; it was about flu remedies. It's no crazier though than what went on with Salk and Sabin polio virus vaccines. (PV is another single stranded positive sense RNA virus but unrelated.)

Right now the research community is very divided, given an estimated 5000 additional bat coronaviruses, over whether ever more isolates should be collected, propagated and genetically engineered to prevent the next outbreak through early study.

Others say this is a terrible idea, leave the bats alone, we need fewer BSL-3 and -4 facilities, not more, that this approach all but guarantees lab accidents will happen whereas as natural transmission wouldn't have. Indeed, a long list of pathogen escapes and staff transmission from secure labs have been documented in the modern era.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 11:06:30 AM »
Programmer will understand:

Nick Craver @Nick_Craver on Twitter

"How's the US handling Coronavirus?"
"Okay so imagine you shut off all the error logging in production"
"That's it."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 01:42:39 AM »
Though I did not vote for any of these clowns (mostly Trump and his ilk, but basically all of our politicians), on behalf of the US I apologize for the circus / clown show our leadership is and has been for the past few decades. So embarrassing and terrifying that they are leading everyone to very dark places. We are collectively such a blind and stupid people (not all of us, but apparently most of us). It's not totally different elsewhere, but we seem to take it to the nth degree.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 11:50:48 PM »
U.S. Representative for California's 45th congressional district.

Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen)n3/12/20, 1:30 PM
Holy shit. Katie Porter holds the CDC Director's feet to the fire and gets him to commit to FREE TESTING for coronavirus for ALL AMERICANS.

Watch every second of this.

[Image below. Video at the link.]

- Katie Porter managed to do IN FIVE MINUTES what this administration couldn’t do for WEEKS. Might be something to consider when you decide how to cast your ballot in November.
< I love all of this, but I broke and started crying when she got the answer she wanted, and instead of bragging or rubbing it in or any other sore winner nonsense, she, without wasting a second, turned to America and said if you're listening you can and should go get tested now.

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:26:41 AM »
The New York Times:

Breaking News: Italy is locking down Milan, Venice and much of its north, risking its economy in an effort to contain Europe's worst coronavirus outbreak.

Link >>

Also the New York Times:

To fight the coronavirus, China placed nearly 60 million people under lockdown and instituted strict quarantine and travel restrictions for hundreds of millions of others. Its campaign has come at great cost to people's livelihoods and personal liberties.

Link >>

Dat framing... Dat bias...

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:54:05 AM »
Gefr. Regen = rain that freezes either hitting the ground or before.

So yeah, sleet is the right translation i guess.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:35:13 AM »
schauer are showers  (buien)

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: March 06, 2020, 09:02:59 PM »
With the actual values of CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6 for November 2019 (see the posts in the individual threads) there is an annual increase (Nov 2019 vs. Nov 2018) of 2.81 ppm CO2 eq (20 y) or 2.60 ppm CO2 eq (100 y). Both values are in the lower end of what has been observed in the last year.

I plotted the annual increases of both (20 y / 100 y) CO2 eq. in a graph (see attached). The linear trend lines are increasing (= acceleration).

Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: March 06, 2020, 08:41:18 PM »
Finally, also CH4 received an update by NOAA:

November 2019:     1877.0 ppb
November 2018:     1866.2 ppb
Last updated: March 05, 2020

This converts into CO2 eq: 57.3 / 19.1 ppm (20 y / 100 y)

The annual increase of 10.8 ppb is at the very upper end of what has been observed in the last years. You have to go back to 2015/16 to find comparable rates.

I set an index of 100 to Jan 2000. November 2019 has a relative value of 105.7.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: March 05, 2020, 08:54:55 PM »
Posted here rather than the battery thread in reply to nanning

The term Year Zero (Khmer: ឆ្នាំសូន្យ chhnam saun), applied to the takeover of Cambodia in April 1975 by the Khmer Rouge, is an analogy to the Year One of the French Revolutionary Calendar. During the French Revolution, after the abolition of the French monarchy (September 20, 1792), the National Convention instituted a new calendar and declared that date to be the beginning of Year I. The Khmer Rouge's takeover of Phnom Penh was rapidly followed by a series of drastic revolutionary de-industrialization policies which resulted in a death toll which vastly exceeded the death toll which resulted from the French Reign of Terror.

Cambodian Genocide
Lasting for four years (between 1975 and 1979), the Cambodian Genocide was an explosion of mass violence that saw between 1.5 and 3 million people killed at the hands of the Khmer Rouge, a communist political group. The Khmer Rouge had taken power in the country following the Cambodian Civil War. During their brutal four-year rule, the Khmer Rouge was responsible for the deaths of nearly a quarter of Cambodians.

The Cambodian Genocide was the result of a social engineering project by the Khmer Rouge, attempting to create a classless agrarian society. The regime would ultimately collapse when the neighboring Vietnam invaded, establishing an occupation that would last more than a decade.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 07:24:43 PM »
Gandul, i'm listening to podcasts by people living in China and/or reporting from there.

I've never heard them saying things like "psychopathic Supreme Leader", "ruthless dictatorship regime", or something like that.

May i ask you where you get these words describing China? Trump? CNN?
OH yes, they love their regime don't they?
What is your ideal regime, blumenkraft?
No you may not, not on this thread, sorry.
Blumenkraft, please try to avoid picking up political fights on this thread. I get your sensitivities but this is derailing.
There is always the off-topic off-topic thread for those who wish to take it elsewhere.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 05, 2020, 07:20:14 PM »
For the first time ever, renewable power generation growth increased at a faster rate than overall power demand growth in 2019!  The end of the fossil fuel era has begun.

Fossil fuels for power at turning point as renewables surged in 2019: data
Aaron Sheldrick

TOKYO (Reuters) - The use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil for generating electricity fell in 2019 in the United States, the European Union and India, at the same time overall power output rose, a turning point for the global energy mix.

The data also indicates that renewable power generation increased at a faster rate than the overall growth in power output for the first time, rising by 297 TWh versus 233 TWh for overall output, Kaberger said.

“It is economics driving this as low-cost renewable electricity outcompetes against fossil and nuclear power plants,” said Kaberger.

With electric vehicle usage surging and their batteries being increasingly recharged by renewable electricity supplies the decline of fossil fuels is likely to accelerate, he said.

“New renewables are even cheaper than oil per unit of energy electricity generated and even fuels produced from electricity will outcompete against fossil fuels at increasing speed in transport, heating and industry,” he said.

“Peak oil demand is close,” Kaberger said.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 05:40:19 PM »
KUDOS to this guy!

Jurgen Klopp's response when asked about Coronavirus

Link >>

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 05, 2020, 03:34:19 AM »
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.

I have two young sons, both of which get a fairly blunt assessment from me concerning climate change so there are few illusions in our family.
While I dont disagree with the above assessment, I wonder how much the youth of today are going to tolerate the upcoming bullshit before they lose their shit?

People over 60 truly need to suck it up and those who are retiring need to stop feeling so entitled to everything and then some just because they worked for it..... I find that people over 60 tend to sit on the entitle pedestal without realizing just how lucky they have been to be in the sweet spot for taking advantage of everything without having to deal with the consequences.

I wish with all my heart that Western Peoples would act better. I spent 2 years living in a village in Samoa... the elders were cared for by the youth. The elders worked hard in their time, supported community and village, and they dont walk around feeling like the world owes them. They understand that the village/community needs to be strong on all levels in order for the whole system to remain strong and that the long term decision making sits on their shoulders and they do exactly that by planning ahead with their grandkids in mind.

Why arent we doing this on a global scale?
Why are our elders retiring and hoarding at the expense of the youth?

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