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Messages - anaphylaxia

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2020, 03:24:39 PM »
Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?
At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 02:06:08 PM »
Is there so much ice in the Arctic this year that there is no need for the freezing season stuff anymore?
Please, get back on topic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 10, 2019, 03:03:28 AM »
Volume gain is probably about 3,000 KM^3 at this point. That is low.

Continental snowfall mass gain is now at 750KM^3.

Snow-mass-gain is now approximately 25% of ice gain to date.

The recent average for the date (11/8) is about 500KM^3 of SWE equivalent gain on about 3,200KM^3 of ice volume growth. That is about 16% of ice gain on land, to date, in recent normals.

With SWE gain to date about 50% above normal, I think it is becoming increasingly clear that the balance of seasonal cryospheric growth does not disappear when the ice melts, at least initially -- it switches to the land. We now have 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 illustrating this trend in FORCE.

Ignoring this shift would be like looking at 07, 12, 16, 19, and saying the sea ice isn't dwindling to zero or near zero. It is. But the opposite is happening on land and 2018 was Greenland's first year of no net mass loss since 1972. WHY? The answer is clear. And it is really bad news for civilization. Like 100X worse than ordinary AGW or CC narrative.

PIOMAS Zack Labe June 2019

That one doesn't seem to have been updated yet...
Yes, Neven. You are right.

PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.
It comes from Seattle, State of Washington:

Mailing Address:
Polar Science Center
Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washington
1013 NE 40th Street
Box 355640
Seattle, WA 98105-6698
Another speculation dies a death. Facts - a plague on them.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 01, 2019, 09:03:49 PM »
The fastest I've watched a floe go from top to bottom is, IIRC, seven days.  (Nares Strait is 500 km long, so 70 km/day average, but always slower near the northern end [maybe 30 or 40 km/day]).  It is about 70 km from Nares' northern entrance to the top of Hall Basin.

So how many days did floes take to go that first leg this week?

I recall the fastest movement, therefore greatest area (~volume), is transported in December.  If it was up to me, I'd prefer attempting to run a marathon (or 12 in a row!) in December, rather than in July!  (But I suspect a floe has a different set of 'cares', just the same results!.  :o ::) :P)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 05:20:55 PM »
When it freezes it forms covalent bonds
Not covalent bonds but additional H-bonds (~3.4 H-bonds per molecule in liquid water, 4 in ice).

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: June 10, 2019, 11:41:26 PM »
And for those who like to see where things are, here is a nice map of the various seas in Antarctica as used in these graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 08:19:52 AM »
Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.

For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

For reference, attached is the NSIDC concentration map for June 3rd, 2019, that matches up almost perfectly with Slater's map.

Also attached is a map from JAXA for July 21, 2012, where the sea ice extent was 7.1M sq km (exactly matching Slater's prediction for July 24, 2019). Just with a quick glance, you can see that to have 7.1M, the Hudson, Baffin and Russian coasts would have to be ice free

I somehow still haven't figured out how to embed pictures into the body of messages but I hope that helps!

*Edit - WOOT! Figured out how to embed the pics!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 20, 2019, 07:15:49 PM »
To me, all I'm saying is even if just one remote island we've never even heard of can and WILL contribute a FOOT to sea level rise seems to be something that should be a lot more on our radars!
Where did you get the foot of sea level rise figure for the Vavilov glacier from? With a total ocean surface area of about 361 million square kilometers, a foot (0.3 meters) of sea level rise requires a total volume of about 100,000 cubic kilometers of glacier ice to melt. That figure would require the ENTIRE October Revolution Island to be covered by an average of 7 kilometers of ice or the Vavilov glacier to have 50+km of ice thickness, which is hardly the case.

A foot of sea level rise sounds more like total sea-level rise potential for ALL glaciers and ice caps outside the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland - see here:

See more here:
Antarctic ice sheet - 25.71 million cubic kilometers (up to about 200 feet of sea level rise)
Greenland ice sheet - 2.85 million cubic kilometers (up to about 24 feet of sea level rise)
All other glaciers and ice caps combined - 0.22 million cubic kilometers (up to about 2 feet of sea level rise)

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: May 04, 2019, 06:29:14 PM »
I made some Glacier size comparison charts featuring Greenland & Antarctic Glaciers. I hope it better visualizes how much ice is exposed to ocean water than a Bedrock map. The charts shows the dimensions of the glacier front. Where the x-axis is the glacier width and the y-axis is the glacier height.

(same post as what's new in Greenland)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:51:33 PM »  ice surface temperature for the last freezing season (for reference)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 18, 2019, 10:00:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,926,911 km2(February 17, 2019)

- Extent gain 7k, 6k more than the average gain of 1k on this day.

Isn't the average gain closer to 20k on this day, at least judging from the graph?
That's the only misleading part of Gerontocrat great reports. He's comparing to the still 'wobbly' 10-year average instead of using the filtered trend.
I would say filtering is not fake science, so look at his nice plot, do the math in your head, and ignore that sentence on a daily basis
It's not misleading and is actually useful, because the real 10 year average is what decides if 2019 will go up or down in the rankings table in a given day. But the filtered average is also interesting as it says if the gain/loss is above or below real expectations for the date.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2019, 08:17:30 AM »
Prior to the inflection point using a polynomial trend line to predict a minimum or maximum is just bad math as they are unduly influenced by the last few data points. I avoided earlier comment because I appreciate the many tables and graphs produced and how much work that is.

Of course it is bad math. That is why in my commentary I call that section "The perils of projections". It is a nice demo of how a trend line can have an almost perfect correlation to
 a series of observations but is of zero value for looking at projections of the future.

Now that demo is done I will remove it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 09:19:42 PM »
  lol .. can anyone find the goalposts .. someone keeps moving them .. b.c.

best is looking for quoted text because that can't be altered by the author ;)
I am confident in predicting that over a good number of years Arctic Sea ice will decline.
I have zero confidence in predicting what Hudson Bay will do in the next week.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 06, 2018, 03:52:38 PM »
Arguing as passionate scientists/researchers/hobbyists is healthy so long as it is respectful.

I for one found this paper informative; I think people are at odds because they are speaking largely in cross-purposes;

One can "split" and the other cannot;

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2018, 09:19:49 PM »
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 02:19:05 AM »
2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

You can point to the date in late December 2015 when the Arctic Climate least to within a day or two.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 11:55:03 AM »
Looks like extent gains are finally beginning to get going in the CAB

Oct 13th - Oct 11th

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 17, 2018, 08:58:40 PM »
You being far north of the Arctic Circle do you have to be before 1) you have no sunlight at least one day of the year, 2) you have no civil twilight at least one day of the year, and 3) it is dark all year?
1) Given refraction (35') and Sun radius (16') you have to be 51' north of the Arctic Circle or 67°25'N.
2) 6° north of Arctic Circle or 72°34'N.
3) There is no sign of sunlight all day at Winter Solstice 18° north of Arctic Circle or 84°34'N.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 30, 2018, 05:10:43 PM »
This melting season convinced me that one of the biggest factors of area and extent loss is the prevailing export direction. This year had a pacific-wise export both in winter (the string of thick old ice) and during the melting season.
The Atlantic/Barents/Fram has an endless capacity to melt anything exported into it. Baffin/Nares is the same but the export rate is low. Baffin/CAA is the same but the export channels are usually clogged until very late in the season.
But the Beaufort does not have an endless capacity. It starts opening up and warming rather late, and the heat it imports from the Mackenzie and from the Bering/Alaskan Coastal Current seems to be not enough to kill very large amounts of ice. As evidence, the "blob" which was pushed against the coast is still surviving even after melting in situ for months and then drifting away into warm open water for several days. And this after the lowest ever Bering ice cover this winter, and the latest Chukchi refreeze ever. My expectation was for a very early pacific-side crash, but the opposite happened.
So my conclusion is that in years where there is a prevailing drift towards the Atlantic it is easier to get to low are/extent numbers, compared to years like 2018 where a lot of the export was movement towards the pacific side.
I also suspect that the resilience of the CAA is related to this general drift direction. The "garlic press" has an endless ice supply to feed it.
I am quite certain this "prevailing export/drift" can be quantified and compared across the years, though I am not able to do that myself.
What I wonder about is what factors affect this prevailing direction, or if it is just a random "luck of the season".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 11, 2018, 11:24:56 AM »
Solar eclipse. 8) Today, the Arctic receives less heat from the Sun than usual.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2018, 08:40:11 PM »
Has the Greenland Sea been ice free before ?

Not in the NSIDC record.  Here's a plot showing 2018 vs the (pre-2018) lowest value on each date (Min_1979_2017), and also the 2007-2017 average extent.

Are you sure about this? 1979 to 2017 ave a good 100 k lower than 2007 to 2017? Maybe some mixup in the legends.

Nope.  I'm showing both the *lowest* value on each date (from the entire record), and also the *average* value from the past decade.   

The green line shows the lowest extent that the Greenland Sea has had in NSIDC data during *any year* prior to 2018.  For most of the year, 2018 has been setting daily records in this particular body of water.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2018, 12:17:50 AM »
but until we see year-round ice-free arctic it will take centuries

I very much doubt about that plural.

in fact i believe that as long as this planet is supporting life, means temps are withing a range that allows for life and as long as there will be 5-6 months wihout sunshine, that we NEVER shall see year round ice-free arctic. after all there will always be winter and even regions with 20C summer water temps and up to 35C air temps are frozen nowadays during winter and that even more south where is no zero sun in winter.

while opinions remain free, my opinion is that headline like buzzwords are not target leading, we should keep it realistic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 19, 2018, 04:39:40 PM »

Where do you think the heat went?

This is not hard to work out.  Blue line, top left to bottom right.

The Arctic is far too noisy a system to try and work this out month by month or year by year.  Decade by Decade is a completely different picture.

All you have to do is follow the blue line and you have every answer you need.  But to do that you have to stop looking week by week, month by month, seasons by season or year by year.

As has been mentioned a few times on this thread, there is only so much melting budget each year because there is only so much sun each year.  The melt for any one year depends on several things:

1. The state when we exit the winter freeze
2. The weather in spring and summer
3. The amount of solar output for any given year

This year we ended the winter anomalously low.  But, as with every year, some areas were much colder than others.

We ended spring with cooler, more cloudy weather which has blocked and reflected much of the potential melt.

So far, in summer, we have had continuing cool and cloudy weather, as a whole, over the majority of the Arctic.

Finally solar cycle 24 is almost ended, we are at a low for sunspots and the sun is putting out (very slightly), less w/m2 for every hour of sunlight.

Where did the heat go?  It stopped even more ice volume from growing that might have been the case otherwise.

Why don't we have more summer ice melt this year than was expected by the start of the year?  That has more than one answer but, generally, it's been a poor season for ice melt and a good season for retention of what ice we have left.

However, overall, the legacy of the ice which did not grow in winter will be carried on into the next freezing season.

The end result of the entire package?  That blue line will continue to go down.

The result of that will be shown when we hit the peak of solar cycle 25, with a warm winter behind us and a 2012 type melting season and a 2.5 SD drop in volume.  When we probably only have 3SD left in ice.

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