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Messages - Neven

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 10, 2019, 10:05:30 AM »
A comparison of Bering sea ice from 2015-2019, jan1-feb8 using ImageJ edge detect on amsr2-uhh. Some lower concentration data has been removed to clean up the animation so this should only be seen as a guide.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 09, 2019, 09:50:28 AM »
France has cheap energy because there is a lot of nuclear power in the grid. From power plants long paid for (also through governmental subsidies). What this chart ignores are the externalities. The French people will pay for all that nuclear waste to handle. Not via the electric bill but via taxes.

When German customer pays more via electric bill then say French, this is because it includes subsidies for renewable energy. See what politics did here? The subsidies we pay to the fossil fuel industry (yes, we still do that!!) is hidden in taxes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2019, 02:26:22 PM »
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front, jan11-feb5.
Polarview, between Svalbard and FJL, feb5
No predictions  ;) edit: Well, perhaps a smaller contribution from Kara to the CAB as the year goes on. That possible up or downwelling north of Svalbard is starting to look very persistent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 09:32:16 AM »
While waiting for the lastest January data, here is an animation of the full range 1979-2018. Made possible by a recent inclusion of 1979-1999 daily thickness data.

Displayed are thickness data every 5th day to keep the file size relatively limited.

It is coded as an mp4 file, experimental for me, over 13meg in size, see it works for you.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 01, 2019, 08:43:41 AM »
Attached the Fram volume export graph. December export below average.

Also updated regional data files:

I expect a new PIOMAS update is very near, so I postpone the latest thickness-difference maps.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 01, 2019, 08:20:19 AM »
Here are the volume and volume-anomaly graphs updated to 2018.

Obama has done more against AGW than ANY other president in history.

So he's not taking credit for the Oil boom then or the wealth generated on the stock markets? Must have been fake news. But considering the competition, GHW Bush, Bill Clinton, GW Bush, yeah you could say that. A pretty low bar. He also actively fought the Court case Our Children's Trust to the hilt that's how concerned he was about getting serious action happening in the US.

His permanent legacy is what exactly? Given anything he did or signed or said has been undone. Compare Obama's Climate action legacy to Johnson's Civil Rights Act which has never been repealed. Obama doesn't have a legacy. Only new over-paid speaking engagements with wealthy corporatists. He's doing nothing for climate chnage action today - nothing - not a single thing! 

What is there to defend except a kind of mystical belief and aura that he actually achieved something sustainable when he didn't. He'll always be a war criminal President too. Like his "new mates" were.

The core reason why GHG emissions went down for a period during Obama's term was because of the GFC. That's it. Any other 'reduction' is marginal at best and irrelevant it's so insignificant. That's how I see it.

The way I see it, if there was a time ripe for change in the USA it was in 2009 to roll out a New Green Deal - to actually a large portion of that TARP money to develop new industries and redevelop the heartland of manufacturing that had been so devastated the prior 20 years and all but destroyed in the GFC lunacy.

But no, the New Green Deal is merely a "hope for change" held by a small minority group of elected Democrats and their visionary supporters now in 2019. A decade later. But Obama was in a prime postion in 2009 to be not only a visionary for hope and change but to actually act on that and drive economic reform across the nation.

But no, because he was ill-prepared to be a decent Democratic President like say Roosevelt, Kennedy or Johnson (not that they were necessarily the bees knees in all respects either.)

The problem was "I am a really nice guy" and "Let's sit down and talk about it - you'll see the logic in my ideas and will agree with me" is NOT a rational political strategy for success in the USA given the TPTB aligned against such enlightened reforms needed to truly address GHG and climate change.

So Obama et al gave Billion$ to GM say when they could have given them some, taken a partial Nationalization stake that could have been repaid by selling that "nationalized" stake on the open market 4-10 years later and instead seriously tackled the fundamental Systemic barriers to alt-renewable energy and greening of the country possibly turning places like Flint Michigan into a New Green Deal Hub.

But he was not up to the task and neither were the rest of the Democrats or the Republican power bases. My point is NOT that it's all Obama's fault, or he's a Bad bad guy --- my point is that he didn't even realize he could have tried something like this. He was very ill-prepared as President and he really didn't have a clue what he stood for and what he wanted to achieve or how to go about it.

Why praise someone for doing basically NOTHING as if he did when he didn't? How does that drive change and reform or bring in to reality a NEW GREEN DEAL today? Go look who Obama is talking to in 2018/2016 .... CORPORATE-MEDIA SHILLS and the Mega-Wealthy and charging them Million$ for it. Is he speaking about AGW/CC urgency and strategies to address it? No, he is not!

That's the "true colours"[/i] of the man right there. Forget him and move on is what I suggest but remember enough of the IMAGE CULT-ivation to not make the same mistake again in the Ballot Box and in the Primaries next time.

By 2012 he had lost the Democrat Majority in Congress instead of building on it by appealing to that sector of society that would end up Voting for Donald Trump in 2016. Clueless imho. Clueless and incompetent or he always was a FAKE candidate, I don't know.

Obama both Lacked Vision and basic Logic if he ever saw himself as an Agent of Positive Change for the USA and the battle against Global warming.  Why people would now be looking at his time in Office as "the good old days" or a period of "great environmental successes" defies belief and the facts. imo at least.

Better than Trump? Well sure. But if that's your "yardstick" you may as well be comparing Obama to windup monkey toy clapping little cymbals and saying he did so much better. Because when it comes to long term positive actions to drive action against Climate Change the USA is the Laggard of the more enlightened global community - from Europe to India to China.

As I pointed out it took him his entire 8 years to \produce his action plan to tackle Climate Change .... Here read the date of publication and the announcement from his office AFTER Trump had won the 2016 election.

CORRECTION - Blast, now I cannot find that Report/Plan and can now also see I've a muddled memory on this because he did produce several others during his term. Anyway, there was a Climate Action Report completed in Dec 2016 by the Obama White House. Sorry I cannot find it now - I thought I had saved it, downloaded it too but can't even find on my pc either.

Here fwiw is his 2013 Climate Action PLan fwiw, all water under the bridge I suppose.

and here is a summary of Obama's Admin "achievements" regarding that plan in mid-2016

and other appraisal

SCOTUS impacts


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 29, 2019, 11:06:51 AM »
With the january poll deadline coming up, here are a couple of seas not fully included in Aluminium's regular postings.
Worldview, terra modis, bering, jan28
amsr2-uhh, baffin etc and okhotsk, jan23-28.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 22, 2019, 02:47:54 PM »
Freezing season isn't over yet ;)
A rough comparison of ascat and piomas, mar15-jan21, weekly (best efforts matching the dates) piomas only up to dec15
Thanks to wipneus, Zhang and Rothrock for piomas
edit: reposted as 8bit and replaced missing frames, 3MB, better colour representation on forum and date matching is better now For best results please download the animation

Some of the detail is lost in a weekly animation but most here will remember that a significant amount of the last of the MYI was pushed into the CAA. What little was left has been spread along the CAA and into the Beaufort.
Added latest cryosat for reference. Note that the cryosat footprint is small and the ice these days is very mobile, particularly in the Beaufort.
Postgrads or keen number crunchers looking for ideas might try cross referencing cryosat swaths with osisaf ice drift. That would be nice.

Ice Shieldz, please see the Nares thread,,176.msg186710.html#msg186710

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 20, 2019, 05:05:05 PM »
Here is a black and white version of my post above.
I found the colour one easier to understand and yes, a lot of older ice has been exported via the Fram Strait (or melted on the atlantic front before it got there). The Nares Strait is also still open.
We are increasingly dependant on the resilience of first year ice.
ascat, sep11-jan19, every 4 days (6.3MB)

The ice front approaches Svalbard again today.
polarview, jan20

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2019, 12:56:51 PM »
SST's from the argo float are here,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302
though it hasn't surfaced since dec14 (or batteries may be flat).
Agreed, evidence of melt as far as FJL. Worldview, viirsbt15n, dec23-jan1. (3MB)

On a brighter note, Bering sea is freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-31. (1.4MB)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: December 30, 2018, 08:45:21 AM »
"Snow White's" continuing campaign to put the Arctic sea ice record straight has been "liked" by Victor Venema:

To celebrate this momentous occasion and to welcome in the New Year here's my alter ego and I in festive mood:

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 27, 2018, 09:02:36 AM »
The first image shows the vulnerability of the remaining ice to melt compared with 2016.

The second is a gif showing the melt over the last few days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2018, 02:44:56 PM »
An amateur attempt to match argo float 3901910 to amsr2-uhh to see how close to the ice edge it travelled, aug18-dec14. It reported weekly until december and has been reporting daily since. Report (cycle) numbers are overlayed onto Greenland, bottom left.
The main observation is that the warm current alongside the ice front is ~2.5C at surface recently.

More details and data here,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302

edit: "These data were collected and made freely available by the Coriolis project and programmes that contribute to it ("

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 14, 2018, 01:49:08 PM »
I'm almost finished with my Northern Hemisphere AWP model, hopefully done this weekend. The most important part left is coding the calculations for each individual region and then the daily updates can start.

A proper documentation, long term graphs and other visulization will follow soon after.

In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)

Science / Re: ICESAT-2
« on: December 13, 2018, 12:31:13 PM »
ICESat-2 seems to be off to a good start. NASA released this article 2 days ago.

Here is the section of the article that I find most interesting.

The first months of ICESat-2 data collected over Arctic and Antarctic sea ice reveal thin ice, thick ice, and features such as ice ridges. Areas of open water in the cracks between the ice floes, called leads, stand out in the data because of the difference in reflectivity between ice and water. By comparing the height of that water surface in the leads with the height of the ice, scientists are estimating ice freeboard and thickness. With the high precision of ICESat-2, plus the satellite’s six beams taking data simultaneously, researchers will have an unprecedented understanding of the thickness of sea ice, which will be used to help improve climate modeling and forecasts.

Plus, the ability to identify newly formed, thin ice will help researchers track the seasonal changes in remote polar regions, and understand the processes that drive those processes. The ice-thickness data will also help scientists improve computer models of how sea ice responds to Arctic warming, as well as forecasts of sea ice cover.

“We’ll have much higher resolution of where it’s ice and where it’s water in the marginal ice zones, where the compact ice cover meets the ocean, during melt and freeze-up,” Kwok said. “That’s going to be new science to think about.

And also:

Mission managers expect to release the data to the public in early 2019.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 10, 2018, 06:00:47 PM »
Running on a platform of Trump is bad has been the fallback since 2016. Do we continue with this flailing, if not failing program, or hit Trump (and the Republicans) where they're really vulnerable.

Universal Healthcare, costs of Education, the Environment, Reproductive rights, I think they're all more popular than trying to convince the voters that our politicians aren't as crooked as your politicians. - besides, I'm not entirely convinced that the later is true. :-[


Time for the Democrats to move away from "groups" (minorities, LGBTQ, women, etc.) and start touting a policy that benefits the biggest group (which, by the way, encompasses the majority of the other groups): the 99 percent. Dems continue to splinter thier own party with groupings where one does not relate/share the ideals of the other and it is hurting us all. Create a policy where everyone has access to affordable healthcare. Everyone has access to education. Everyone has access to fair representation devoid of financial contribution. Everyone has access to a livable climate. Stop telling me you're not Trump and create policy that the public is demanding (healthcare) and that benefits society as a whole (education/trade skills, environmental/climate protection). Stop sucking (gulping) at the corporate teat and do the hard work.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 07, 2018, 12:30:38 AM »
Agreed, patches of flash freezing already visible.... but the pack is so mobile, looking a bit wounded almost (obviously I'm reading too much into it ;) )
ascat, last 20days (enhanced contrast,clahe,unsharpmask)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: December 06, 2018, 06:56:41 PM »
The poll is closed.  Distribution of the votes:

For comparison, here is a screenshot that I took on Monday 3 December:

Quite some changes in the last few days...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 06, 2018, 11:11:50 AM »
Worldview, viirs brightness temperature band15, night, dec6.
Greenland Sea looking a bit worse for wear after another storm and thick(ish) ice lined up for Fram export.
edit: Nares still open. That large floe rounding off its edges as it goes down.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 06, 2018, 03:23:12 AM »
It's frankly bizarre that so many people are suggesting to Neven to turn off politics.

Today, yesterday, and tomorrow are some of the most pivotal days of human history.

+1,000,000 ppm

imo your contributions should be celebrated, not canned. You represent a group of readers of this forum that will still be alive when the impacts seriously kick. The majority of actual posters here will be long gone. They've already had "their day" which led to today. And yet still can't let go of the belief it is they who have all "the right" answers and assume only "they know" how to make a difference in 2019 onward, or run a forum, while trying to silence anyone who dares disagree with them or whose style is totally different and passionate and in fact realistic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: AMSR2 Sea Ice Volume/Thickness
« on: December 05, 2018, 12:21:53 AM »
binntho, I doubt if it explains everything, but for a more valid comparison you need to compare PIOMAS to  NSIDC extent, which has much larger grid cells and lower accuracy.

I agree with Binntho. No gridded cells could explain that difference.

But in fairness, the PIOMAS is a better effort than the AMSR volume chart posted earlier by Tealight.

Look at the two areas circled in black. Parts of Area A in the Laptev were still not fully ice covered in early November and now it is supposed to be nearing 150cm thick ! PIOMAS puts the same area in the 75cm to 1m bin. Which is probably even a little generous.

Meanwhile Area B shows a river of blue going right up the centre of the Arctic Basin. That's less than 50cm thick. Clearly incorrect.
In defence of Tealights stalwart efforts, I ran interferometry on ascat for november (thank you A-Team) and there is a hint of lower concentration along the old ice front. Perhaps the newer, rapidly formed ice is more mobile than the older ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 04, 2018, 12:15:11 PM »
The Fram export graph. During the last few days the export has increased noticeable, which I think is visible in the animation above.

And here is the Wipneus Fram Strait export graph alongside the Greenland Ice Area (NSIDC 5-day trailing average)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2018, 04:48:26 PM »
A closer look at the Atlantic ice front using amsr2-uhh and comparing with mercator temperatures 0m and 34m depth. The mercator model showing most of the warmer Atlantic water flowing east towards Novaya Zemlya, with a smaller current flowing north towards Svalbard then turning east towards FJL along the edge of the Nansen basin.
If I understand correctly, some of the warmer salty atlantic water will mix with fresher melt water in the choppy seas along the ice front but most is destined to sink into the depths of the Nansen basin, the salt making it denser, despite being warmer.

Notice how the thinner ice north of FJL melts even when blown northward onto the warmer current.

amsr2-uhh, mercator temperature 0m and 34m, nov1-dec1

edit: Lower concentration ice is still just discernible over the 'upwelling' north of Svalbard.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 01, 2018, 02:59:35 PM »
The extent numbers look quite healthy so far, but thicker ice is still melting along the Atlantic front all the way to FJL and looks like it will continue to melt for a while longer in the Chukchi. Fram/NSvalbard export may make a bigger difference this freezing season.
jaxa 2018 and 2017, nov1-30

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 30, 2018, 03:46:40 PM »
It seems as if the resilient high pressure that's been hovering over the Arctic is finally being battered away in the next few days, pincer attacks coming in from the Atlantic and the Pacific fronts.

GIF showing the next few days, may need a click:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 30, 2018, 08:47:27 AM »
November 24-29.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.

Developers Corner / Re: Creating Animated GIFs
« on: November 22, 2018, 09:49:37 PM »
amsr2-uhh, with overlaid ice edges of 2016 in red and 2017 in yellow (shows up well against blue but not too good over white)
edit:chose a neutral grey for 100% ice color - too much at once though

not too bad for a close up view

using ImageJ, Process>find edges. Image>color>split channels. Keep blue channel. Adjust color balance to choose color (must be a better way) make montage and save.
using gimp, layer>transparency>set color to alpha, merge down, repeat and save
back to imagej. image>stack>tools>montage to stack. crop, scale, repeat final frames.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 21, 2018, 08:57:52 PM »
Worldview, north of Svalbard, brightness temperature, band15,night, nov20-21.
The lower concentration ice near to the eddy (circled) still clearly visible over recent days. They look like goodbye waves and cloud streets along the ice front. Large floes on the ice edge ~-28C.

For those who missed it first time round, some cloud street info from A-Team

"cloud streets" in the Barents (associated with cold winds of a meandering central anti-cyclonic high) will continue out to March 25th and beyond, per GFS.

Twitter can confuse these with with blowing Antarctic ice needles or katabatic Greenland winds but Zach notes correctly today these are parallel bands of cumulus clouds that form as cold winds from the north blow off the ice edge onto warmer ocean waters.

OK, but why now, why cumulus mediocris, and what causes the street banding? 

The temperature differential between cold air blowing off the ice and the sea surface water, either open leads or more commonly beyond the ice edge, can easily exceed 20ºC in March. Thermal columns of moist heated air rise off the sea surface until they hit a denser warmer lid of air (provided a temperature inversion is present).

As the thermals are advected downwind and sink or rise according to ambient density differences, they form parallel pairs of counter-rotating cylinders of air. On the upper surface of rising air, water vapor cools and condenses into flat-bottomed, fluffy-topped clouds (ie cumulus: On the downdrafts, condensates evaporate giving clear skies on the sides of the clouds, the banding.

Surprisingly, the alignment of vortices alone does not reliably indicate wind direction. Stably stratified environments have lines 30° off CCW to the left; only an unstably stratified (ie convective) situation has bands parallel to mean wind.

Cloud streets are technically called horizontal convective rolls. The most favorable conditions for them occur when the lowermost layer of air is unstable, driven by a moderate wind and capped by a stable inversion, a common situation when upper air is subsiding, such as under recently prevailing anticyclonic conditions. turbulent momentum flux in PBL

Tech note: brightness/contrast adjusted and clahe applied to the worldview images

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 21, 2018, 10:53:48 AM »
I believe that temperatures tell us the real story about the state of the Arctic. Attached is the November to October (12 months) average temperature 70N-90N (ie, the last data plot is the average temp from 2017 Nov to 2018 Oct). Nothing to cheer at, things are actually worse than 2012 or 2007:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 20, 2018, 11:41:05 PM »
Agreed. It looks like there is only movement in the Nares now.
Here is a comparison of 2017 and 2018, using amsr2-uhh, from oct1 to nov19. 2017 is outlined in green.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: November 20, 2018, 09:15:21 AM »
Here are the updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November mid-monthly update)
« on: November 20, 2018, 08:55:44 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated to the 15th of November. Volume (calculated from thickness) at 15 November is 9.42 [km3], 5th lowest after 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2017.

Here is the animation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 18, 2018, 01:29:02 PM »
Despite the low temperatures, Nares is still exporting and, surprisingly, there is still movement in the Mclure Strait.
Worldview brightness temperature,band15,night.

Walking the walk / Fuel sensitive driving
« on: November 14, 2018, 06:20:56 AM »
I just wrote an article about fuel sensitive driving for the Klima Pact campain in Luxembourg. Here is an English translation. If anybody has any comment (also regarding gramatics, I'm always happy to learn), they are welcome.  It is to be published in the county paper, so I tried to avoid direct confrontation regarding motor size and car weight.
If you would want to publish it in your area, please ask me. I'm quite open on the subject, but I'd like to be the first publisher in the Luxembourgish area, if it's accepted, it will be published in January of February.

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 13, 2018, 12:50:58 AM »
Now here's an outsider: Ojeda

“The reason why the Democratic Party fell from grace is because they become nothing more than elitist. That was it. Goldman Sachs, that’s who they were. The Democratic Party is supposed to be the party that fights for the working class, and that’s exactly what I do. I will stand with unions wholeheartedly, and that’s the problem: the Democratic Party wants to say that, but their actions do not mirror that.”

"Members of Congress, he proposes, should be required to donate their net wealth above a certain threshold — Ojeda puts it at a million dollars — to discourage using public office for private gain. In return, retired members of Congress would get a pension of $130,000 a year and be able to earn additional income to reach $250,000. Anything above that would be donated."

“When you get into politics, that’s supposed to be a life of service, but that’s not what it’s been. You know, a person goes into politics, they win a seat in Congress or the Senate, and it’s a $174,000 [salary], but yet two years later, they’re worth $30 million, and that’s one of the problems that we have in society today. That’s how come no one trusts — or has very much respect for — politicians,”

Heeheehee. I like him already.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2018, 09:38:22 PM »
Some clearer skies recently on worldview using viirs brightness temperature band15, day or night. Here is an example showing the area north Greenland, nov12, using 2 different colour palettes. Despite the cold temperatures, the ice to the east of Ellesmere still looks in bad condition.
edit: according to worldview scale, yellow ~0C, light blue ~-46C

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 11, 2018, 07:11:36 AM »
November 6-10.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 10, 2018, 02:42:56 PM »
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

Agreed, also rapid freeze at low temperatures probably means more brine in the ice.
Full size animation of ascat, oct18-nov9 as it is deliniating the different ice types so well at the moment (after enhancement).

The atlantic is still at work under the new ice front until the halocline/pynocline settles down.
amsr2-uhh, oct31-nov9, forward and back.

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:19:41 AM »
Just to let you know that the AWI CryoSat-2 data service has been resumed in the past days as can be seen by the PIOMAS - CryoSat-2 figures above. The CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness algorithm has been updated to version 2.1 with a number of changes:

  • Improved snow information for regions outside the central Arctic Ocean
  • new options for automated analysis (NSIDC region codes in gridded and orbit data
  • improved uncertainty for gridded sea ice thickness

We have also added online documentation and anonymous ftp access, you can find the necessary information here:

AWI CryoSat-2 wiki

Whats new in version 2.1

Cheers, Stefan

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November)
« on: November 06, 2018, 12:32:52 PM »
Thickness map, compared with previous years and the differences.
What I find most disturbing here is the complete absence of 4M+ ice.  We are inching closer to the end of freeze season volume matching annual heat uptake.

Time to show my PIOMAS thickness distribution. As some may remember, ice in each gridcell in the PIOMAS model is specified as a discrete distribution: there exist 12 categories of ice thickness (m):
[0.00, 0.26, 0.71, 1.46, 2.61, 4.23, 6.39, 9.10, 12.39, 16.24, 20.62, 25.49]
gice specifies the percentage less or equal to the thickness of each category.

The attached graph shows the area of ice that is thicker than each thickness cat.

4m+ ice is indeed declining dramatically,  but that is not a recent development.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 05, 2018, 09:36:08 PM »
Lapham at lithub on plutocracy and politics in the USA:

"Trump is undoubtedly a menace, but he isn’t a surprise. His smug and self-satisfied face is the face of the way things are and have been in Washington and Wall Street for the last quarter of a century."

"Trump was there to say, and say it plainly, that money is power, and power, ladies and gentlemen, is not self-sacrificing or democratic. The big money cares for nothing other than itself, always has and always will. "

"A fair enough share of his fellow citizens screamed, stamped and voted in agreement because what he was saying they knew to be true, knew it not as precept borrowed from the collected works of V.I. Lenin or Ralph Lauren but from their own downwardly mobile experience on the losing side of a class war waged over the past 40 years by America’s increasingly frightened and selfish rich against its increasingly angry and debtbound poor."

"Trump is president of the United States, and what in 1988 was a weakened but still operational democracy has become a dysfunctional, stupefied plutocracy. "

"The nation’s political discourse meanwhile has dwindled into the staging of election campaigns with candidates prized for the gift of saying nothing. Forbidden the use of words apt to disturb a Gallup poll or offend a bagman, they stand and serve as product placements for concentrated wealth, their quality to be inferred from the cost of their manufacture. "

“The fundamental division of powers in the Constitution of the United States is between voters on the one hand and property owners on the other. The forces of democracy on the one side . . . and the forces of property on the other side.”

"At no moment in its history has the country not been nailed to a cross of gold. "

 “those who own the country ought to govern it.”

"Faith in democracy survived the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963; it didn’t survive the assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King in 1968. "

"The visual order of print sustains a sequence of cause and effect, tells a story with a beginning, middle and end. The speed of light spreads stories that run around in circles, eliminate the dimensions of space and time, construct a world in which nothing follows from anything else. Sequence becomes additive instead of causative, “Graphic Man” replaces “Typographic Man,” and the images of government become a government of images."

"the amassment of wealth and the acquisition of power follows from the naming of things rather than from the making of them. The future is a product to be sold, not a story to be told."

"Advertising is the voice of money talking to money"

"Typographic Man wrote the Constitution and the Gettysburg Address; Graphic Man elects the president of the United States. "

"The comic book hero won the comic book election."

"The excellence of Mark Zuckerberg is the excellence of Donald Trump, product placements of concentrated wealth but also embodiments of the spirit of an age ... "

"What can be said about the big money can also be said about technology: it cares for nothing other than itself, collects and stores the dots but connects them only to other dots ... Siri, Watson and Alexa can access the Library of Congress, but they don’t read the books. "

" ...  if left to its own devices, the Dionysian god in the machine of creatively annihilating capitalism must devour and destroy the earth. Not with malice aforethought, but because it is a machine, and like all machines knows not what else to do."

Read the whole thing:


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 07:44:12 AM »
October 31 - November 4.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 19, 2018, 02:54:22 PM »
Daily regional volume data is updated:

The ice-velocity data was not updated, so the Fram volume export graph will have to wait.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 19, 2018, 02:44:00 PM »
Daily volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 19, 2018, 02:25:27 PM »
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated, last day 15 October.
Volume (calculated from thickness) at that day was 5.53 [1000 km3], third lowest behind 2012 and 2016 and just below 20122011 (5.55 [1000 km3])

Here is the animation for October.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 12, 2018, 12:59:08 AM »
I thought refreeze in the Beaufort was going to take hold, but it doesn't look so convincing over the last two days.
Worldview, Beaufort oct10-11

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2018, 01:14:54 PM »
Ascat, day261-280 (2.2MB)
The pack is still very mobile.
Some signs of refreeze on the ice edge (maybe wind driven slush or snow on thin ice)
Export of thicker ice continues into the CAA.
Export accelerates into the Fram Strait.
Open water north of SZ continues. (Less damping effect on storms running up the Barents into the Laptev)
tech note: images enhanced - brightness/contrast, clahe, unsharp mask

edit: Refreeze in Mackenzie Bay

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