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Messages - Neven

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1
Wouldn't 20.74 put it below 2018?

Indeed, I took it from the wrong (sorted) table, 20.74 is for 2017 (lowest value). The corrected value (22.46) is in the post now.

2
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up the 15th of April. My calculated volume for that day is 20.74 22.46 [1000km3]. This is third lowest day-value behind 2017 and 2018.

Here is the animation for April sofar.

FIXED: correct volume

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 18, 2019, 08:06:34 PM »
Over 400 arrests in London so far this week as protesters retain hold of a number of sites across the city for a fourth consecutive day. An attempt to evict protesters from Parliament Square failed last night with XR rebels able to move back to their blockades following a number of arrests but with many more waiting to be arrested.

Also reports of police struggling for custody capacity, with some of those arrested being moved into custody outside London.

Some pictures are probably appropriate!
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2019/apr/18/extinction-rebellion-protests-photos-from-day-four

Amazing to see that this is still snowballing, and to see that Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England - and François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France - chose this Rebellion Week to publish a letter stating that financial institutions cannot afford to ignore climate change.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/17/mark-carney-tells-global-banks-they-cannot-ignore-climate-change-dangers

David Attenborough is on the BBC tonight with a programme specifically about climate change, and is guaranteed an extremely high viewership here in the UK. Could this be a watershed moment?

If not now, then soon?

I will be in London tomorrow to join Extinction Rebellion in solidarity.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 17, 2019, 11:36:39 AM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, greenland, apr10-16.
wipneus regional extent  https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Southerlies likely to be dominant for the next two days.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 15, 2019, 10:55:27 PM »
Hi all. This is a new study that I am sure many on this forum will be interested in:

"Arctic sea ice volume variability over 1901–2010: A model-based reconstruction" (PIOMAS-20C): https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 07, 2019, 10:45:53 PM »
ascat day 96(heavy contrast)
I wonder how long the thicker ice in the Beaufort will hold out/rotate and the ESS arm, come late summer ?
Hopefully the magenta line will hold, but I doubt it. Last melting season was cloudy and the Beaufort string had a higher percentage of MYI than this year (imo). Some of it may have survived in the 'slush that wouldn't melt'. Ascat is good for tracking but not necessarily a good indicator of ice thickness.
image1: The best recent viirs brightness temperature image of the stringer I could find is apr4 (https://go.nasa.gov/2FVzQtj) Darker is colder and almost certainly thicker. Alaskan coast on left. It is already recently fractured and the slightly older 'glue ice' is clearly visible.
image2: A selection of thickness products. The stringer doesn't feature heavily in any of them and the ess arm looks like it will become isolated.
Based on recent drift it's also likely that the older laptev ice will be consumed by the warm current close to FJL while the older CAB ice may just about keep the pole frozen.

Long live the magenta line :)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 07, 2019, 01:29:53 PM »
Laptev mar31-apr7

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 07, 2019, 12:09:42 PM »
Sea of Okhotsk drop is almost vertical.

Update on Laptev, refreeze just about keeping up with the mobile ice. More southerlies are forecast, cool though.
For comparison, worldview, laptev apr7, 2010-2019

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 05, 2019, 10:09:59 AM »
The nice folks over at the RAMMB CIRA site from Colorado State University have added Suomi and N20 imagery to their slider at 51 minute intervals.  Perhaps some will find this of interest.
Here's the last 2 days focused on the Kara Sea.  There are additional bands available, along with the ability to overlay and zoom.  Unfortunately, it can't be rotated in the slider.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=2&im=54&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_m07&x=13379&y=12292

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 05, 2019, 08:12:45 AM »
March 30 - April 4.

Ice has broken in upper Ob and Yenisei rivers. Slightly earlier than usual.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 04, 2019, 05:47:18 AM »
Here are some regional volume charts comparing with previous years.
The Pacific sector looks really bad, the same exact kind of bad that we had in 2018. All 3 seas are near record lows. In 2018 Chukchi melted quite early, but Beaufort held on rather bravely. We will see what 2019 will bring, but it's certainly a disturbing winter trend.
The saving grace is with Bering volume so low, remaining loss is very limited there.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 03, 2019, 08:47:09 AM »
Volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April 2019)
« on: April 03, 2019, 08:46:07 AM »
PIOMAS  has updated, both the volume as the gridded thickness data.
Volume on 2019-03-31 was 22.218 [1000km3], fourth lowest for the day.

Here is the animation for March 2019.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 03, 2019, 12:40:41 AM »
Update on utqiagvik as seen by ascat. Chukchi sea and the Alaskan coast having quite a hard time of it.
ascat feb15-apr1, 7days/sec
edit:day labelling corrected

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 02, 2019, 12:25:52 PM »
amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, mar1-apr1.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid-monthly update)
« on: March 19, 2019, 11:42:32 AM »
Volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid-monthly update)
« on: March 19, 2019, 11:37:50 AM »
PIOMAS has updated gridded thickness data. Volume calculated from this was 21.95 [1000km3] on the 15th of March. That would be the 7th lowest for the day.

Here is the animation of March until sofar.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2019, 02:29:41 PM »
Comparison of ascat with cs2smos merged sea ice thickness for mar10. (8bit colour for the animation)
Cryosat2 not impressed with the old ice near FJL/SZ.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 06:50:14 PM »
The Fram export graph shows near normal export figures in Jan and Feb.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 06:25:12 PM »
Thickness maps, compared with previous years and differences with those.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 06:04:49 PM »
Since there was none last month, hre is the animation of Jan-Feb 2019.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 08:49:10 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the official volume data. Unfortunately the ftp server with the detailed thickness data has not been serving me for some time now. I will look into that.

Here are the volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 01, 2019, 09:04:02 AM »
Here are the tables for the extent average in February 2019. Average extent was at 13'807'922 km2, which is:

- 7th lowest in recorded history
- 27'009 km2 above the 2010 average (including 2019)
- 405'331 km2 above the record year 2018

The second image shows the rank of average extent for each month since 2011, whereas 1 means lowest.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:39:13 PM »
The test of the three SUV electric vehicles showed that even the best of the three used about 25 kWh to travel 120 kilometers ( 75 miles ). So if you devoted something like a daily production of a 5 kWh home solar array to charging your car it wouldn't even get you through a common daily  commute here Southern Calif.  That same solar array is capable of running my small farm for all it's electrical needs both for my home and my water wells. I can feed myself on the food I grow and if hard pressed wouldn't need to travel much at all.
 My point is we are trying to extend current BAU expectations for very large personal vehicles and at the same time ignoring rebuilding our lives in ways that make sense in justifying the purchase of a 5 kWh solar system which costs over $20,000 installed even with rebates. So the frustration exhibited by a number of posters here may be to a degree justified even though I believe it would be more effective if it was delivered constructively . So I am not going to name names but there are long term posters here that are doing damage to the resonable arguement that society should work towards a renewable future by supporting carmakers and technology that isn't anywhere near affordable to a vast swath of society. $ 90,000 cars, $ 40,000 solar arrays, $20,000 power wall arrays and million dollar houses are not answers to solving climate change problems, they will accelerate them. I don't accept an argument that the rich and their purchase of these extremely expensive alternative energy systems are building the technology that will lift the rest of us out of our fossil fuel dependencies. So anger will build and those elitist transportation options will eventually be sabotaged in retaliation. The fact that anger in society is building and has intruded onto our otherwise peaceful blog page should be somehow addressed. Zizek is young and angry, how do we address that anger ?   

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2019, 09:59:45 PM »
<snippage>
Technical note: uniquorn has expressed interest in doing up the interferometry on the 8 previous years so the steps are explained one by one at DevCorner. The degree of difficulty here is about 3 on a scale of 10. <snip>
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.msg143664.html#msg143664

Having taken a year to reach 'best efforts' production of difficulty 3/10 here are 339 days up to feb17. Quality has been sacrificed to keep size down to ~9MB mp4 though, in some ways, that helps when looking at the overall picture.
Quote
This amounts to land-masked framen of (R,G.B) = (dayn - dayn-1, dayn - dayn-2, dayn - dayn-3) - (50,50,50)) after contrast renormalization, adaptive histogram equalization and bicubic rescaling. In other words, it's plain gray when and where the ice isn't moving.
... and it's brighter (within the grey ice) when the ice is moving faster.
Note the movement along the interface of old/new ice and the surges towards the end in the Beaufort/Chukchi. Ascat images are affected by weather, particularly in summer, but the ice movement is still visible and it is valuable background information.
apologies in advance to anyone affected by flashing images
edit: no land mask as I think the weather effects over land are probably useful to some


 

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 10, 2019, 10:05:30 AM »
A comparison of Bering sea ice from 2015-2019, jan1-feb8 using ImageJ edge detect on amsr2-uhh. Some lower concentration data has been removed to clean up the animation so this should only be seen as a guide.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 09, 2019, 09:50:28 AM »
France has cheap energy because there is a lot of nuclear power in the grid. From power plants long paid for (also through governmental subsidies). What this chart ignores are the externalities. The French people will pay for all that nuclear waste to handle. Not via the electric bill but via taxes.

When German customer pays more via electric bill then say French, this is because it includes subsidies for renewable energy. See what politics did here? The subsidies we pay to the fossil fuel industry (yes, we still do that!!) is hidden in taxes.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 06, 2019, 02:26:22 PM »
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front, jan11-feb5.
Polarview, between Svalbard and FJL, feb5
No predictions  ;) edit: Well, perhaps a smaller contribution from Kara to the CAB as the year goes on. That possible up or downwelling north of Svalbard is starting to look very persistent.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 09:32:16 AM »
While waiting for the lastest January data, here is an animation of the full range 1979-2018. Made possible by a recent inclusion of 1979-1999 daily thickness data.

Displayed are thickness data every 5th day to keep the file size relatively limited.

It is coded as an mp4 file, experimental for me, over 13meg in size, see it works for you.


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 01, 2019, 08:43:41 AM »
Attached the Fram volume export graph. December export below average.

Also updated regional data files:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional-monthly.txt.gz
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

I expect a new PIOMAS update is very near, so I postpone the latest thickness-difference maps.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 01, 2019, 08:20:19 AM »
Here are the volume and volume-anomaly graphs updated to 2018.

33
Obama has done more against AGW than ANY other president in history.

So he's not taking credit for the Oil boom then or the wealth generated on the stock markets? Must have been fake news. But considering the competition, GHW Bush, Bill Clinton, GW Bush, yeah you could say that. A pretty low bar. He also actively fought the Court case Our Children's Trust to the hilt that's how concerned he was about getting serious action happening in the US.

His permanent legacy is what exactly? Given anything he did or signed or said has been undone. Compare Obama's Climate action legacy to Johnson's Civil Rights Act which has never been repealed. Obama doesn't have a legacy. Only new over-paid speaking engagements with wealthy corporatists. He's doing nothing for climate chnage action today - nothing - not a single thing! 

What is there to defend except a kind of mystical belief and aura that he actually achieved something sustainable when he didn't. He'll always be a war criminal President too. Like his "new mates" were.

The core reason why GHG emissions went down for a period during Obama's term was because of the GFC. That's it. Any other 'reduction' is marginal at best and irrelevant it's so insignificant. That's how I see it.

The way I see it, if there was a time ripe for change in the USA it was in 2009 to roll out a New Green Deal - to actually a large portion of that TARP money to develop new industries and redevelop the heartland of manufacturing that had been so devastated the prior 20 years and all but destroyed in the GFC lunacy.

But no, the New Green Deal is merely a "hope for change" held by a small minority group of elected Democrats and their visionary supporters now in 2019. A decade later. But Obama was in a prime postion in 2009 to be not only a visionary for hope and change but to actually act on that and drive economic reform across the nation.

But no, because he was ill-prepared to be a decent Democratic President like say Roosevelt, Kennedy or Johnson (not that they were necessarily the bees knees in all respects either.)

The problem was "I am a really nice guy" and "Let's sit down and talk about it - you'll see the logic in my ideas and will agree with me" is NOT a rational political strategy for success in the USA given the TPTB aligned against such enlightened reforms needed to truly address GHG and climate change.

So Obama et al gave Billion$ to GM say when they could have given them some, taken a partial Nationalization stake that could have been repaid by selling that "nationalized" stake on the open market 4-10 years later and instead seriously tackled the fundamental Systemic barriers to alt-renewable energy and greening of the country possibly turning places like Flint Michigan into a New Green Deal Hub.

But he was not up to the task and neither were the rest of the Democrats or the Republican power bases. My point is NOT that it's all Obama's fault, or he's a Bad bad guy --- my point is that he didn't even realize he could have tried something like this. He was very ill-prepared as President and he really didn't have a clue what he stood for and what he wanted to achieve or how to go about it.

Why praise someone for doing basically NOTHING as if he did when he didn't? How does that drive change and reform or bring in to reality a NEW GREEN DEAL today? Go look who Obama is talking to in 2018/2016 .... CORPORATE-MEDIA SHILLS and the Mega-Wealthy and charging them Million$ for it. Is he speaking about AGW/CC urgency and strategies to address it? No, he is not!

That's the "true colours"[/i] of the man right there. Forget him and move on is what I suggest but remember enough of the IMAGE CULT-ivation to not make the same mistake again in the Ballot Box and in the Primaries next time.

By 2012 he had lost the Democrat Majority in Congress instead of building on it by appealing to that sector of society that would end up Voting for Donald Trump in 2016. Clueless imho. Clueless and incompetent or he always was a FAKE candidate, I don't know.

Obama both Lacked Vision and basic Logic if he ever saw himself as an Agent of Positive Change for the USA and the battle against Global warming.  Why people would now be looking at his time in Office as "the good old days" or a period of "great environmental successes" defies belief and the facts. imo at least.

Better than Trump? Well sure. But if that's your "yardstick" you may as well be comparing Obama to windup monkey toy clapping little cymbals and saying he did so much better. Because when it comes to long term positive actions to drive action against Climate Change the USA is the Laggard of the more enlightened global community - from Europe to India to China.

As I pointed out it took him his entire 8 years to \produce his action plan to tackle Climate Change .... Here read the date of publication and the announcement from his office AFTER Trump had won the 2016 election.

CORRECTION - Blast, now I cannot find that Report/Plan and can now also see I've a muddled memory on this because he did produce several others during his term. Anyway, there was a Climate Action Report completed in Dec 2016 by the Obama White House. Sorry I cannot find it now - I thought I had saved it, downloaded it too but can't even find on my pc either.

Here fwiw is his 2013 Climate Action PLan fwiw, all water under the bridge I suppose.  https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf

and here is a summary of Obama's Admin "achievements" regarding that plan in mid-2016
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2016/06/28/third-anniversary-climate-action-plan

and other appraisal
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23122016/obama-climate-change-legacy-trump-policies

SCOTUS impacts
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/us/politics/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-epa-coal.html

LEGACY Issues
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/20/trump-coal-emissions-power-plants-rules-obama
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-to-rescind-obama-era-coal-emissions-standards/

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 29, 2019, 11:06:51 AM »
With the january poll deadline coming up, here are a couple of seas not fully included in Aluminium's regular postings.
Worldview, terra modis, bering, jan28
amsr2-uhh, baffin etc and okhotsk, jan23-28.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 22, 2019, 02:47:54 PM »
Freezing season isn't over yet ;)
A rough comparison of ascat and piomas, mar15-jan21, weekly (best efforts matching the dates) piomas only up to dec15
Thanks to wipneus, Zhang and Rothrock for piomas
edit: reposted as 8bit and replaced missing frames, 3MB, better colour representation on forum and date matching is better now For best results please download the animation


Some of the detail is lost in a weekly animation but most here will remember that a significant amount of the last of the MYI was pushed into the CAA. What little was left has been spread along the CAA and into the Beaufort.
Added latest cryosat for reference. Note that the cryosat footprint is small and the ice these days is very mobile, particularly in the Beaufort.
Postgrads or keen number crunchers looking for ideas might try cross referencing cryosat swaths with osisaf ice drift. That would be nice.

Ice Shieldz, please see the Nares thread, https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg186710.html#msg186710

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 20, 2019, 05:05:05 PM »
Here is a black and white version of my post above.
I found the colour one easier to understand and yes, a lot of older ice has been exported via the Fram Strait (or melted on the atlantic front before it got there). The Nares Strait is also still open.
We are increasingly dependant on the resilience of first year ice.
ascat, sep11-jan19, every 4 days (6.3MB)

The ice front approaches Svalbard again today.
polarview, jan20

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2019, 12:56:51 PM »
SST's from the argo float are here
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302
though it hasn't surfaced since dec14 (or batteries may be flat).
Agreed, evidence of melt as far as FJL. Worldview, viirsbt15n, dec23-jan1. (3MB)

On a brighter note, Bering sea is freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-31. (1.4MB)


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: December 30, 2018, 08:45:21 AM »
"Snow White's" continuing campaign to put the Arctic sea ice record straight has been "liked" by Victor Venema:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1076207543616225281

To celebrate this momentous occasion and to welcome in the New Year here's my alter ego and I in festive mood:

39
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 27, 2018, 09:02:36 AM »
The first image shows the vulnerability of the remaining ice to melt compared with 2016.

The second is a gif showing the melt over the last few days.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2018, 02:44:56 PM »
An amateur attempt to match argo float 3901910 to amsr2-uhh to see how close to the ice edge it travelled, aug18-dec14. It reported weekly until december and has been reporting daily since. Report (cycle) numbers are overlayed onto Greenland, bottom left.
The main observation is that the warm current alongside the ice front is ~2.5C at surface recently.

More details and data here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302

edit: "These data were collected and made freely available by the Coriolis project and programmes that contribute to it (http://www.coriolis.eu.org)."


41
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 14, 2018, 01:49:08 PM »
I'm almost finished with my Northern Hemisphere AWP model, hopefully done this weekend. The most important part left is coding the calculations for each individual region and then the daily updates can start.

A proper documentation, long term graphs and other visulization will follow soon after.

In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)


43
Science / Re: ICESAT-2
« on: December 13, 2018, 12:31:13 PM »
ICESat-2 seems to be off to a good start. NASA released this article 2 days ago.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/icesat-2-reveals-profile-of-ice-sheets-sea-ice-forests

Here is the section of the article that I find most interesting.

Quote
The first months of ICESat-2 data collected over Arctic and Antarctic sea ice reveal thin ice, thick ice, and features such as ice ridges. Areas of open water in the cracks between the ice floes, called leads, stand out in the data because of the difference in reflectivity between ice and water. By comparing the height of that water surface in the leads with the height of the ice, scientists are estimating ice freeboard and thickness. With the high precision of ICESat-2, plus the satellite’s six beams taking data simultaneously, researchers will have an unprecedented understanding of the thickness of sea ice, which will be used to help improve climate modeling and forecasts.


Plus, the ability to identify newly formed, thin ice will help researchers track the seasonal changes in remote polar regions, and understand the processes that drive those processes. The ice-thickness data will also help scientists improve computer models of how sea ice responds to Arctic warming, as well as forecasts of sea ice cover.


“We’ll have much higher resolution of where it’s ice and where it’s water in the marginal ice zones, where the compact ice cover meets the ocean, during melt and freeze-up,” Kwok said. “That’s going to be new science to think about.

And also:

Quote
Mission managers expect to release the data to the public in early 2019.

44
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 10, 2018, 06:00:47 PM »
Running on a platform of Trump is bad has been the fallback since 2016. Do we continue with this flailing, if not failing program, or hit Trump (and the Republicans) where they're really vulnerable.


Universal Healthcare, costs of Education, the Environment, Reproductive rights, I think they're all more popular than trying to convince the voters that our politicians aren't as crooked as your politicians. - besides, I'm not entirely convinced that the later is true. :-[


Terry
+1

Time for the Democrats to move away from "groups" (minorities, LGBTQ, women, etc.) and start touting a policy that benefits the biggest group (which, by the way, encompasses the majority of the other groups): the 99 percent. Dems continue to splinter thier own party with groupings where one does not relate/share the ideals of the other and it is hurting us all. Create a policy where everyone has access to affordable healthcare. Everyone has access to education. Everyone has access to fair representation devoid of financial contribution. Everyone has access to a livable climate. Stop telling me you're not Trump and create policy that the public is demanding (healthcare) and that benefits society as a whole (education/trade skills, environmental/climate protection). Stop sucking (gulping) at the corporate teat and do the hard work.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 07, 2018, 12:30:38 AM »
Agreed, patches of flash freezing already visible.... but the pack is so mobile, looking a bit wounded almost (obviously I'm reading too much into it ;) )
ascat, last 20days (enhanced contrast,clahe,unsharpmask)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: December 06, 2018, 06:56:41 PM »
The poll is closed.  Distribution of the votes:





For comparison, here is a screenshot that I took on Monday 3 December:



Quite some changes in the last few days...

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 06, 2018, 11:11:50 AM »
Worldview, viirs brightness temperature band15, night, dec6. https://tinyurl.com/y7s5h2hf
Greenland Sea looking a bit worse for wear after another storm and thick(ish) ice lined up for Fram export.
edit: Nares still open. That large floe rounding off its edges as it goes down.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: AMSR2 Sea Ice Volume/Thickness
« on: December 05, 2018, 12:21:53 AM »
binntho, I doubt if it explains everything, but for a more valid comparison you need to compare PIOMAS to  NSIDC extent, which has much larger grid cells and lower accuracy.

I agree with Binntho. No gridded cells could explain that difference.

But in fairness, the PIOMAS is a better effort than the AMSR volume chart posted earlier by Tealight.

Look at the two areas circled in black. Parts of Area A in the Laptev were still not fully ice covered in early November and now it is supposed to be nearing 150cm thick ! PIOMAS puts the same area in the 75cm to 1m bin. Which is probably even a little generous.

Meanwhile Area B shows a river of blue going right up the centre of the Arctic Basin. That's less than 50cm thick. Clearly incorrect.
In defence of Tealights stalwart efforts, I ran interferometry on ascat for november (thank you A-Team) and there is a hint of lower concentration along the old ice front. Perhaps the newer, rapidly formed ice is more mobile than the older ice.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 04, 2018, 12:15:11 PM »
The Fram export graph. During the last few days the export has increased noticeable, which I think is visible in the animation above.

And here is the Wipneus Fram Strait export graph alongside the Greenland Ice Area (NSIDC 5-day trailing average)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2018, 04:48:26 PM »
A closer look at the Atlantic ice front using amsr2-uhh and comparing with mercator temperatures 0m and 34m depth. The mercator model showing most of the warmer Atlantic water flowing east towards Novaya Zemlya, with a smaller current flowing north towards Svalbard then turning east towards FJL along the edge of the Nansen basin.
If I understand correctly, some of the warmer salty atlantic water will mix with fresher melt water in the choppy seas along the ice front but most is destined to sink into the depths of the Nansen basin, the salt making it denser, despite being warmer.

Notice how the thinner ice north of FJL melts even when blown northward onto the warmer current.

amsr2-uhh, mercator temperature 0m and 34m, nov1-dec1

edit: Lower concentration ice is still just discernible over the 'upwelling' north of Svalbard.

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