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Messages - karl dubhe2

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 08:37:27 PM »
More and more credible sources pointing to the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus/Wuhan pneumonia/Chinese virus to the Wuhan Laboratory:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8223779/Coronavirus-originated-bungled-experiments-Wuhan-lab-bombshell-report-claims.html

I've been pointing out this virus came from a lab for weeks, and now we're getting closer and closer to getting that info confirmed.

This is just one more instance of the right wing nuts wanting someone to blame, preferably the Chinese, preferably communism.

There is no truth to it. There never was. This is a natural variation of a virus from nature jumping to humans from animals in a high contact zone, hybridizing with a human virus to gain capability. This happens frequently. This happens more often the higher the population density and the higher the contact rate with the wild.

This is not in any way surprising. It is and was entirely expected. It was so expected that the Chinese focused two large research groups on this very virus family AND began construction of a bio lab to study these viruses - the very lab the right wing nuts want to blame for creating it.

This is not (99+% likelihood) in any way associated with human meddling with this virus. This is nature at work weeding the herd.

Sam

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 08:25:27 PM »
The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

Neven,

This is a basic and common error. Our society is conditioned to think in terms that put commerce as primary. It isn’t. It is essential. It is not primary.

The psychological effects of this disease are terrible. The impacts of those on commerce are great. More impactful is the disease itself.  It is not in any way the messaging or narrative that is the problem. That places commerce as the priority to resolve the crisis.

To resolve the crisis requires first understanding that the disease spread is itself primary. It leads. It governs all that happens. The impacts of the disease on psychology are secondary AND important.

The impacts on commerce are tertiary. And their impacts on employment, income, work, social life ... are feedbacks from that. They are all vitally important. But they are tertiary.

Focusing on those focuses on the wrong problem.

The narrative in media is quaternary, not even tertiary. But it is for most people the first thing they see. And between the primacy of that flow of information and the vital importance of economics to day to day survival, it is not in the least surprising to find people believing that to be most important and hence primary. It still isn’t. It also easily lends itself to memes, and to political campaigns focused on those aspects. That still does not make it primary.

The disease and its progression are and remain primary. They drive everything else.

Solving the crisis requires solving the disease spread. Solving the crisis requires focusing on that primary problem.

And there two major aspects. First is the disease itself. Treatments, drugs, herbs, vaccines and such are the primary weapons there. Second is the spread of the disease. That is dominated by human behavior. There is as yet no suggestion even of an animal or insect vector playing any role. Stopping human to human spread is the major control. That then goes to isolation through many means, blocking transmission with masks, sanitizers, hand washing, and behavioral interventions are the major tools.

This virus is as contagious as chicken pox. That is hugely contagious. Controlling it requires actions commensurate with that. And that means lockdown.

If - and this is a huge if - we could simultaneously stop everyone from moving around for five to six weeks, we would likely end the virus. Five to six weeks in very small groups would cause the disease to run its course and die out. Even a few somewhat larger groups, or limited movement of essential people provide pathways for the virus to continue.

And even a single contagion chain is enough that when that isolation is lifted - the virus resumes its rampage. The vast majority of people don’t have five to six weeks of food and essential supplies on hand. Medical and other emergencies still happen.

So, five to six weeks isn’t enough. It requires longer - a lot longer.

That then endangers the existence of small companies. It depletes individual resources or strains them to the breaking point. Accordingly, massive societal sharing (financial bailouts being one such) become essential.

But these are not one time things. They have to last as long as the contagion persists - requiring isolation and shutdown.

And how long that lasts is decided by how tightly we are willing to lock ourselves down (all of us), and by how effective we are at it.

If we do this badly, or even moderately well. The period required is extended indefinitely. And that then drives people bonkers psychologically which causes controls to fail.

But failure means ultimately infecting about 90% of the population. And that means killing circa 3-9+% of the population in the first wave. And if this virus only provides two year immunity as it appears to, it means killing something like 2-6% in a second wave, and 1-5% in a third wave etc...  Each wave depletes the society of older and vulnerable people, presumably lessening the impact of each wave. But over a decade, this likely sums to 12-15% of the population dying, unless massive controls are put in place, or successful treatments or vaccines are developed. That then might limit the dying to 4% over the decade.

However, even a single adverse mutation in all those quadrillions of quadrillion+ copies of the virus throws all of this analysis out. Now we deal with a more lethal disease that spreads faster, and kills more and different people. It perhaps then targets the young, or young adults, or those in middle age.

In time, that too dies out. Extremely lethal viruses are self limiting. They destroy the population in the process.

Focusing on putting business recovery as primary assures that the disease spreads farther and faster and that it kills more people. That raises the decades death toll substantially. AND it destroys more businesses. Focusing on saving business and commerce as primary kills business and commerce.

The problem is not the narrative about the virus. The problem is and remains the virus.

Sam


3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 10:23:00 AM »
Sometimes those things we can least influence scare us the most.

Exactly.

It is a comforting thought to blame humans for creating this. The real scary part is that infections like this can emerge anywhere at any time.

Freakier is that they have been recurring like clockwork once a century in world spanning outbreaks.

I doubt that speaks about the viruses. I suspect it says something about humanity.

The Indian variant may be and likely is -less- virulent, based on where the mutation affected.

However it points out a grave danger. The longer this thing is extant in the world, the more copies exist in more bodies. Each reproduction is a chance for a new variation. Each variation is a chance for an even scarier disease. And with more people infected comes more co-infections and the opportunity for cross over, and the creation of some new monster.

With variation also comes the potential that the variants require distinct vaccines. And the potential for difficulties, such as occurs with the five variants of Dengue and its vaccine.

On a different note.

It appears that self isolation as done in the US is resulting in something like a -1.5% “growth” rate. I.e. a 0.985 x/day change day to day in the number of new cases. This is excellent news. However, it is - slow. At that rate, and without massive testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected, it means that provided this holds across much of the US (unknown) that the new case rate about May 1 will be something like 75% of the new case rate today.

And what that means is that if self isolation / quarantine is lifted on May 1 as threatened by Donald the Dumb, and people actually return to their normal lives that the case rate will begin rising at between 1.18 x/day in mostly rural areas and ~1.355 x/day in urban metro areas.

It will take 10-11 days to see that begin to show impacts on numbers.  It will take about a week of increase to persuade decision makers that they have erred. And in that time the new case rate will have grown to between 35 and 235 times the rate the day the decision was implemented. If that is 75% of the case rate now, then the case rate will have bloomed to between 25 and 175 times the new case rate today.

And in many areas, with the peak in rates being about now, now is when many areas hospitals are at or near saturation. At 25 to 175 times today’s rates, pretty much everywhere will be in saturation. But those rates will continue to rise for another 10-11 days to 130 to 5,000 times today’s rates, before the restored quarantine begins to show effects. Should that happen a whole lot of folks will die who would not have died at lesser rates. That would take the nominal 4.5% CFR for hospitalized cases much much higher.

All of this is of course guesswork, with all sorts of questionable assumptions. People are likely to be gun shy to go back to their normal lives. Many, if not most, Governors are likely to show Herr Dumkopf their middle fingers. So the reality is likely to be much less severe than these numbers might suggest.

Then again, the stacked Federal Courts courtesy of Minnie me McConnell might well trash the Constitution and the tenth amendment and decide that the Commerce Clause supersedes everything.

Still, the impact will be bad. We can only hope that he isn’t as much of an imbecile as he appears, and that he doesn’t try to “restart” the economy on May 1, or anytime in the two months after that, without dramatically changed policies that drive the infection rates to near zero before trying to gently and tentatively restart the economy.

That is of course a vain and ridiculous hope. Our dear loser of a leader has demonstrated at every turn that he is a thin-skinned, self aggrandizing, malignant narcissist, sociopathic liar, conman, bully, idiot, fool, moron, imbecile, racist, zealot, misogynist, and utterly failed business man. Everything he touches turns into a heaping fetid pile of stinking shit the likes of which no one has seen before. There is no reason to hope or believe any decision he is involved in regarding this pandemic will be any different.

And whatever happens he will of course claim to have done the most perfectest and smartetest thing any President has ever even dreamed of doing - never mind the reality. And his troglodyte troll followers will genuflect obscenely and obsequiesly to French kiss his ass as he does it, while simultaneously blaming everything on the commies and their fantasy “deep State”. All the while, our neighbors will be dying for the economy.

Sam

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 06:52:53 PM »
Harpy,

I know this us useless and I am wasting my breath.

Please stop being a racist.

Sam

5
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:17:51 PM »
Quote from: SharedHumanity
... There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede. 
Can you share a peer-reviewed reference to qualify that opinion ... otherwise your creating a distraction that is going nowhere.

"Comparative studies of ethnically diverse human populations, particularly in Africa, are important for reconstructing human evolutionary history and for understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation and complex disease. African populations are characterized by greater levels of genetic diversity, extensive population substructure, and less linkage disequilibrium (LD) among loci compared to non-African populations."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2953791/

This is not surprising as the modern human has spent far more time in Africa than the relative short space of time on the rest of earth as humans left Africa and spread rapidly across the planet. So, when people say something like "the genetic diversity between races", they are talking out of their ass and it says far more about themselves than science. I would strongly suggest this discussion talk about genetic differences between subgroups because race is a social construct with no meaning or proper role in scientific discussions.





6
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 11, 2019, 03:03:41 AM »
Leading Civil Rights Lawyer Shows 20 Ways Trump Is Copying Hitler’s Early Rhetoric and Policies
http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/steven-rosenfeld/86013/leading-civil-rights-lawyer-shows-20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitler-s-early-rhetoric-and-policies

A new book by one of the nation’s foremost civil liberties lawyers powerfully describes how America’s constitutional checks and balances are being pushed to the brink by a president who is consciously following Adolf Hitler’s extremist propaganda and policy template from the early 1930s—when the Nazis took power in Germany.

In When at Times the Mob Is Swayed: A Citizen’s Guide to Defending Our Republic, Burt Neuborne mostly focuses on how America’s constitutional foundation in 2019—an unrepresentative Congress, the Electoral College and a right-wing Supreme Court majority—is not positioned to withstand Trump’s extreme polarization and GOP power grabs. However, its second chapter, “]Why the Sudden Concern About Fixing the Brakes?,” extensively details Trump’s mimicry of Hitler’s pre-war rhetoric and strategies.



... “Why does an ignorant, narcissistic buffoon like Trump trigger such anxiety? Why do so many Americans feel it existentially (not just politically) important to resist our forty-fifth president?” he writes. “Partly it’s just aesthetics. Trump is such a coarse and appalling man that it’s hard to stomach his presence in Abraham Lincoln’s house. But that’s not enough to explain the intensity of my dread. LBJ was coarse. Gerald Ford and George W. Bush were dumb as rocks. Richard Nixon was an anti-Semite. Bill Clinton’s mistreatment of women dishonored his office. Ronald Reagan was a dangerous ideologue. I opposed each of them when they appeared to exceed their constitutional powers. But I never felt a sense of existential dread. I never sensed that the very existence of a tolerant democracy was in play.”

A younger Trump, according to his first wife’s divorce filings, kept and studied a book translating and annotating Adolf Hitler’s pre-World War II speeches in a locked bedside cabinet, Neuborne noted. The English edition of My New Order, published in 1941, also had analyses of the speeches’ impact on his era’s press and politics. “Ugly and appalling as they are, those speeches are masterpieces of demagogic manipulation,” Neuborne says.

“Watching Trump work his crowds, though, I see a dangerously manipulative narcissist unleashing the demagogic spells that he learned from studying Hitler’s speeches—spells that he cannot control and that are capable of eroding the fabric of American democracy,” Neuborne says. “You see, we’ve seen what these rhetorical techniques can do. Much of Trump’s rhetoric—as a candidate and in office—mirrors the strategies, even the language, used by Adolf Hitler in the early 1930s to erode German democracy.”

Many Americans may seize or condemn Neuborne’s analysis, which has more than 20 major points of comparison. The author repeatedly says his goal is not “equating” the men—as “it trivializes Hitler’s obscene crimes to compare them to Trump’s often pathetic foibles.”

Indeed, the book has a larger frame: whether federal checks and balances—Congress, the Supreme Court, the Electoral College—can contain the havoc and vandalism that Trump thrives on and the Republican Party at large has embraced. But the Trump-Hitler compilation is a stunning warning, because, as many Holocaust survivors have said, few Germans or Europeans expected what unfolded in the years after Hitler amassed power.


Here’s how Neuborne introduces this section. Many recent presidents have been awful, “But then there was Donald Trump, the only president in recent American history to openly despise the twin ideals—individual dignity and fundamental equality—upon which the contemporary United States is built. When you confront the reality of a president like Trump, the state of both sets of brakes—internal [constitutional] and external [public resistance]—become hugely important because Donald Trump’s political train runs on the most potent and dangerous fuel of all: a steady diet of fear, greed, loathing, lies, and envy. It’s a toxic mixture that has destroyed democracies before, and can do so again.

“Give Trump credit,” he continues. “He did his homework well and became the twenty-first-century master of divisive rhetoric. We’re used to thinking of Hitler’s Third Reich as the incomparably evil tyranny that it undoubtedly was. But Hitler didn’t take power by force. He used a set of rhetorical tropes codified in Trump’s bedside reading that persuaded enough Germans to welcome Hitler as a populist leader. The Nazis did not overthrow the Weimar Republic. It fell into their hands as the fruit of Hitler’s satanic ability to mesmerize enough Germans to trade their birthright for a pottage of scapegoating, short-term economic gain, xenophobia, and racism. It could happen here.”

20 Common Themes, Rhetorical Tactics and Dangerous Policies

Here are 20 serious points of comparison between the early Hitler and Trump. ...

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:25:50 AM »
It is not my preference to ignore someone. All learning occurs when a person encounters information that is currently unknown. This can be from a book or a discussion where views distinct from your own cause you to reconsider something you consider to be true.

That said, I have no interest in discussing the merits of abiogenesis, that life can spontaneously emerge from nonliving matter on a time scale of minutes, weeks, or years despite that a man as brilliant as Aristotle had developed the theory and that it was generally held to be true for a couple of millennia.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 09:55:06 PM »

From NSIDC archive of daily Arctic sea ice concentration images

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2012/07_Jul/N_20120708_conc_v3.0.png
vs.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2019/07_Jul/N_20190708_conc_v3.0.png

FWIW - Some amateur opinions for consideration and feedback:
1) to my eye July 8 2019 ASI concentration looks more vulnerable than same date 2012.  The few areas where 2019 has more ice are doomed by Sept. anyway.

2) I don't think the extent and area metrics we use to compare between years fully reflect the degraded ice condition in 2019.  Volume has a better chance of reflecting actual situation, but of course it has its own issues.

3) There is still a lot of melt season weather left to go, and as reported in the forum, late July-August 2012 weather was conducive to melt.  While June 2019 was blistering, it remains to be seen what remainder of 2019 melt weather will be like, but it will be hard for 2019 to match late-season 2012.  So that's gives an edge to 2012 in terms of the Sept. minimum extent/area/volume.

4)  And 2012 had the Great Arctic Cyclone. I have to assume that an event of that impact is unlikely in 2019.  But 2019 may bring its own events -- perhaps a couple of less intense events will have cumulatively equal impact as the 2012 GAC.  A return of an Arctic dipole hinted at in the 10-12 day forecast yesterday is an example of hits 2019 could yet deliver to the weakened ice fortress.
   
 5) Of greatest importance -- 2019 includes 7 additional years of a) continued decline of anchoring multi-year sea ice, b) what appears to be qualitative functional changes in ocean heat incursion, c) increased ice pack mobility, d) polar vortex weakening, e) higher atmospheric CO2e, and f) higher global SAT -- by about 0.3C increase between 2012 to 2019.  That's a huge amount of extra energy in the surface layer of the climate system (not even counting the energy buried in the ocean, some of which could affect Arctic sea ice melting this year).  There is a lot of additional heat embedded in the Arctic and surrounding system in 2019 vs. 2012.
   
   6)  Because of #5, I think we really can't know how close to the cliff we are.  But we can be sure that we are getting closer to that cliff every subsequent year of not only persistent elevated GHG level, and not just year-on-year additions, but increases in the rate of increase of GHG loading. 
 
   7) So... 2019 vs. 2012?  A toss up for Sept minimum only because 2012 was such a blow out.  But on the current trajectory it's just a question of when, not if, cumulative progression will push the system below 2012 and make every year below 2012. 

  8) It's natural to focus on  landmarks like Sept. minimum extent/area/volume, but in case you missed it, see the 365-day running average extent the industrious and appreciated gerontocrat posted at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg211770.html#msg211770.  And the even more dramatic 365-day running average volume posted at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg211798.html#msg211798.
     More than the ASI status on a single September day, those trends show the larger story of what we are doing to a critical part of our climate system. 

     The world needs the people informed by this forum to spread the news of this existential threat to family, friends, neighbors, colleagues, and politicians.  Please talk about it, that is the essential first step.       


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 08:21:54 AM »
Quote
Don't you dare using logic as an argument here ever again. Obviously, you don't understand the concept.

I am disappointed that this is an acceptable way to communicate for intelligent people here. it reads as putting someone down, a new curious member in this case. Is it an effect of adult (academic) hierarchical groupbehaviour?
No offence intended (if you can find any). Sorry to be off-topic.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but to get this straight, HelloMeteor called people assholes, who answered their question in good faith and correctly. Getting backlash for this kind of behaviour is normal in any social situation, not hierarchical group behaviour.

10
The politics / Re: The Empire vs Venezuela - News and History
« on: February 22, 2019, 10:56:15 AM »
...
I am truly amazed by the spread of socilaism in the West especially amongst the youth. It can only happen to those who did not live in a totalitarian-socialist/communist regime. I did. I know how terrible it is and why it does not work. We had a joke: "Introduce socialism in the Sahara and soon sand will be in short supply". These regimes ALWAYS destroy human dignity, lead to opression, suffering, and lowered living standards. I can not comprehend how anyone can take the side of Maduro (Chavez).
...

Since I am in that exact group of young people who fight for socialism I think I should reply to this. And I don't reply to attack you, I just want to give you an insight of why I (and many many more especially in the youth) hold those beliefs.

I was born in this world which is run by an untouchable elite class, which has - during the last several decades - accumulated enough wealth (which in a capitalist system is power) to have total control over the life of the lower class, since money is something you need to survive in capitalist society. They have done this by exploiting people and the planet for the sole sake of profit. Since they are also the ones that are profiting from the status quo, they put a lot of effort into maintaining it. Therefore, nothing will fundamentally change (by which I mean that whoever is in power in this system still has the main goal of accumulating profit and staying in power).

Now, as you might understand, I don't like this. I don't like growing up on a planet that I will most likely see collapsing ecologically and economically. I don't like it that my life and future is controlled by same ultra-rich old men who are responsible for that and don't feel any effects of what they are doing to the people and the planet. And what I despise the most is that I have absolutely no ability to change that, since the capitalist system is built in a way that it can always survive by giving more and more power to the elite and smash every movement which intends to build a society without those classes through propaganda, sanctions and repression.

It's really not cool to look into a future where more and more people will suffer. And instead of collaborating and working together to fix the issues we face, I see leaders embracing nationalism and encouraging individualism. The "Fuck you I got mine" mindset is ultimately rooted in capitalism, and this just has no place if we want to keep this planet alive.

What I don't understand is why the majority of people keeps defending a system that is knowingly, actively and inevitably destroying lives, our planet and our future.


This went pretty off-topic sorry, but I just wanted to give an insight to El Cid. Now back to topic.

11
The rest / Re: A must read
« on: January 23, 2019, 01:31:16 PM »
Whoops  - pressed remove instead of modify

Quote
Quote from: vox_mundi on Today at 11:24:14 AM
Chris Hedges goes full-on 'medieval' with the climate denying 'Christian right' and corporate rape of the planet.

Confronting the Culture of Death
http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/chris-hedges/83130/confronting-the-culture-of-death
the climate denying 'Christian right'

I am personally convinced that many evangelical Christians (perhaps especially in the USA) are sure that climate change exists, hope that it will happen very quickly, and hope that we will accelerate our burning of fossil fuels.

Why? To bring on the end of days, Armageddon and the Second Coming.

The narrative has many strands. It was reported that amongst many evangelicals, the movement of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and worsening of relations between Israel and Palestine combined with the US's unconditional support to Israel are welcomed. In their view this is part of the process of creating Greater Israel (from the Med to the Red Sea) with all of Jerusalem as its undisputed capital. This is also a necessary condition for Armageddon and the second coming.

There is a concern amongst some commentators that there are some weirdos surrounding Trump who encourage policies that contribute to political instability, populism and conflict either through this religious conviction and / or belief that such actions will help Trump to maintain popularity with his voter base. "4 more years!!"

Perhaps I will be asked for links. I will not provide. Life is depressing enough already. Poking around in those places in the www I will no longer do.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 02:40:02 PM »
Fall ends December 21.

I would put melting continuing in the CAB, this year, until December 21st, in very low fractions of 0.5.

There is ice in the Beaufort, close to shore and in the Hudson, which still has not melted out.  Ditto the NW passage, CAA and, let us not forget, the ESS.

You are asking us to believe that a storm of such intensity that it will pump warm water, from 100m down, over the entire CAB, whether it is ice covered or not, will turn up and rage over the arctic from now until October.

Probability?  Very low.  The CAB will be below 0C by September and will drop from there.  Once the sun goes down that temp will drop much more.

There may come a day when this happens.  Just not this decade, or likely the next.

13
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 10, 2018, 02:03:23 AM »
I love all types of fish and seafood. I have quit eating it because we are destroying fisheries across the planet and I don't want to contribute to this.

My main sources of meat protein are organic chicken and beef.

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