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Messages - karl dubhe2

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1
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 11, 2019, 03:03:41 AM »
Leading Civil Rights Lawyer Shows 20 Ways Trump Is Copying Hitler’s Early Rhetoric and Policies
http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/steven-rosenfeld/86013/leading-civil-rights-lawyer-shows-20-ways-trump-is-copying-hitler-s-early-rhetoric-and-policies

A new book by one of the nation’s foremost civil liberties lawyers powerfully describes how America’s constitutional checks and balances are being pushed to the brink by a president who is consciously following Adolf Hitler’s extremist propaganda and policy template from the early 1930s—when the Nazis took power in Germany.

In When at Times the Mob Is Swayed: A Citizen’s Guide to Defending Our Republic, Burt Neuborne mostly focuses on how America’s constitutional foundation in 2019—an unrepresentative Congress, the Electoral College and a right-wing Supreme Court majority—is not positioned to withstand Trump’s extreme polarization and GOP power grabs. However, its second chapter, “]Why the Sudden Concern About Fixing the Brakes?,” extensively details Trump’s mimicry of Hitler’s pre-war rhetoric and strategies.



... “Why does an ignorant, narcissistic buffoon like Trump trigger such anxiety? Why do so many Americans feel it existentially (not just politically) important to resist our forty-fifth president?” he writes. “Partly it’s just aesthetics. Trump is such a coarse and appalling man that it’s hard to stomach his presence in Abraham Lincoln’s house. But that’s not enough to explain the intensity of my dread. LBJ was coarse. Gerald Ford and George W. Bush were dumb as rocks. Richard Nixon was an anti-Semite. Bill Clinton’s mistreatment of women dishonored his office. Ronald Reagan was a dangerous ideologue. I opposed each of them when they appeared to exceed their constitutional powers. But I never felt a sense of existential dread. I never sensed that the very existence of a tolerant democracy was in play.”

A younger Trump, according to his first wife’s divorce filings, kept and studied a book translating and annotating Adolf Hitler’s pre-World War II speeches in a locked bedside cabinet, Neuborne noted. The English edition of My New Order, published in 1941, also had analyses of the speeches’ impact on his era’s press and politics. “Ugly and appalling as they are, those speeches are masterpieces of demagogic manipulation,” Neuborne says.

“Watching Trump work his crowds, though, I see a dangerously manipulative narcissist unleashing the demagogic spells that he learned from studying Hitler’s speeches—spells that he cannot control and that are capable of eroding the fabric of American democracy,” Neuborne says. “You see, we’ve seen what these rhetorical techniques can do. Much of Trump’s rhetoric—as a candidate and in office—mirrors the strategies, even the language, used by Adolf Hitler in the early 1930s to erode German democracy.”

Many Americans may seize or condemn Neuborne’s analysis, which has more than 20 major points of comparison. The author repeatedly says his goal is not “equating” the men—as “it trivializes Hitler’s obscene crimes to compare them to Trump’s often pathetic foibles.”

Indeed, the book has a larger frame: whether federal checks and balances—Congress, the Supreme Court, the Electoral College—can contain the havoc and vandalism that Trump thrives on and the Republican Party at large has embraced. But the Trump-Hitler compilation is a stunning warning, because, as many Holocaust survivors have said, few Germans or Europeans expected what unfolded in the years after Hitler amassed power.


Here’s how Neuborne introduces this section. Many recent presidents have been awful, “But then there was Donald Trump, the only president in recent American history to openly despise the twin ideals—individual dignity and fundamental equality—upon which the contemporary United States is built. When you confront the reality of a president like Trump, the state of both sets of brakes—internal [constitutional] and external [public resistance]—become hugely important because Donald Trump’s political train runs on the most potent and dangerous fuel of all: a steady diet of fear, greed, loathing, lies, and envy. It’s a toxic mixture that has destroyed democracies before, and can do so again.

“Give Trump credit,” he continues. “He did his homework well and became the twenty-first-century master of divisive rhetoric. We’re used to thinking of Hitler’s Third Reich as the incomparably evil tyranny that it undoubtedly was. But Hitler didn’t take power by force. He used a set of rhetorical tropes codified in Trump’s bedside reading that persuaded enough Germans to welcome Hitler as a populist leader. The Nazis did not overthrow the Weimar Republic. It fell into their hands as the fruit of Hitler’s satanic ability to mesmerize enough Germans to trade their birthright for a pottage of scapegoating, short-term economic gain, xenophobia, and racism. It could happen here.”

20 Common Themes, Rhetorical Tactics and Dangerous Policies

Here are 20 serious points of comparison between the early Hitler and Trump. ...

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:25:50 AM »
It is not my preference to ignore someone. All learning occurs when a person encounters information that is currently unknown. This can be from a book or a discussion where views distinct from your own cause you to reconsider something you consider to be true.

That said, I have no interest in discussing the merits of abiogenesis, that life can spontaneously emerge from nonliving matter on a time scale of minutes, weeks, or years despite that a man as brilliant as Aristotle had developed the theory and that it was generally held to be true for a couple of millennia.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 09:55:06 PM »

From NSIDC archive of daily Arctic sea ice concentration images

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2012/07_Jul/N_20120708_conc_v3.0.png
vs.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/images/2019/07_Jul/N_20190708_conc_v3.0.png

FWIW - Some amateur opinions for consideration and feedback:
1) to my eye July 8 2019 ASI concentration looks more vulnerable than same date 2012.  The few areas where 2019 has more ice are doomed by Sept. anyway.

2) I don't think the extent and area metrics we use to compare between years fully reflect the degraded ice condition in 2019.  Volume has a better chance of reflecting actual situation, but of course it has its own issues.

3) There is still a lot of melt season weather left to go, and as reported in the forum, late July-August 2012 weather was conducive to melt.  While June 2019 was blistering, it remains to be seen what remainder of 2019 melt weather will be like, but it will be hard for 2019 to match late-season 2012.  So that's gives an edge to 2012 in terms of the Sept. minimum extent/area/volume.

4)  And 2012 had the Great Arctic Cyclone. I have to assume that an event of that impact is unlikely in 2019.  But 2019 may bring its own events -- perhaps a couple of less intense events will have cumulatively equal impact as the 2012 GAC.  A return of an Arctic dipole hinted at in the 10-12 day forecast yesterday is an example of hits 2019 could yet deliver to the weakened ice fortress.
   
 5) Of greatest importance -- 2019 includes 7 additional years of a) continued decline of anchoring multi-year sea ice, b) what appears to be qualitative functional changes in ocean heat incursion, c) increased ice pack mobility, d) polar vortex weakening, e) higher atmospheric CO2e, and f) higher global SAT -- by about 0.3C increase between 2012 to 2019.  That's a huge amount of extra energy in the surface layer of the climate system (not even counting the energy buried in the ocean, some of which could affect Arctic sea ice melting this year).  There is a lot of additional heat embedded in the Arctic and surrounding system in 2019 vs. 2012.
   
   6)  Because of #5, I think we really can't know how close to the cliff we are.  But we can be sure that we are getting closer to that cliff every subsequent year of not only persistent elevated GHG level, and not just year-on-year additions, but increases in the rate of increase of GHG loading. 
 
   7) So... 2019 vs. 2012?  A toss up for Sept minimum only because 2012 was such a blow out.  But on the current trajectory it's just a question of when, not if, cumulative progression will push the system below 2012 and make every year below 2012. 

  8) It's natural to focus on  landmarks like Sept. minimum extent/area/volume, but in case you missed it, see the 365-day running average extent the industrious and appreciated gerontocrat posted at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg211770.html#msg211770.  And the even more dramatic 365-day running average volume posted at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg211798.html#msg211798.
     More than the ASI status on a single September day, those trends show the larger story of what we are doing to a critical part of our climate system. 

     The world needs the people informed by this forum to spread the news of this existential threat to family, friends, neighbors, colleagues, and politicians.  Please talk about it, that is the essential first step.       


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 08:21:54 AM »
Quote
Don't you dare using logic as an argument here ever again. Obviously, you don't understand the concept.

I am disappointed that this is an acceptable way to communicate for intelligent people here. it reads as putting someone down, a new curious member in this case. Is it an effect of adult (academic) hierarchical groupbehaviour?
No offence intended (if you can find any). Sorry to be off-topic.

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but to get this straight, HelloMeteor called people assholes, who answered their question in good faith and correctly. Getting backlash for this kind of behaviour is normal in any social situation, not hierarchical group behaviour.

5
The rest / Re: The Empire vs Venezuela - News and History
« on: February 22, 2019, 10:56:15 AM »
...
I am truly amazed by the spread of socilaism in the West especially amongst the youth. It can only happen to those who did not live in a totalitarian-socialist/communist regime. I did. I know how terrible it is and why it does not work. We had a joke: "Introduce socialism in the Sahara and soon sand will be in short supply". These regimes ALWAYS destroy human dignity, lead to opression, suffering, and lowered living standards. I can not comprehend how anyone can take the side of Maduro (Chavez).
...

Since I am in that exact group of young people who fight for socialism I think I should reply to this. And I don't reply to attack you, I just want to give you an insight of why I (and many many more especially in the youth) hold those beliefs.

I was born in this world which is run by an untouchable elite class, which has - during the last several decades - accumulated enough wealth (which in a capitalist system is power) to have total control over the life of the lower class, since money is something you need to survive in capitalist society. They have done this by exploiting people and the planet for the sole sake of profit. Since they are also the ones that are profiting from the status quo, they put a lot of effort into maintaining it. Therefore, nothing will fundamentally change (by which I mean that whoever is in power in this system still has the main goal of accumulating profit and staying in power).

Now, as you might understand, I don't like this. I don't like growing up on a planet that I will most likely see collapsing ecologically and economically. I don't like it that my life and future is controlled by same ultra-rich old men who are responsible for that and don't feel any effects of what they are doing to the people and the planet. And what I despise the most is that I have absolutely no ability to change that, since the capitalist system is built in a way that it can always survive by giving more and more power to the elite and smash every movement which intends to build a society without those classes through propaganda, sanctions and repression.

It's really not cool to look into a future where more and more people will suffer. And instead of collaborating and working together to fix the issues we face, I see leaders embracing nationalism and encouraging individualism. The "Fuck you I got mine" mindset is ultimately rooted in capitalism, and this just has no place if we want to keep this planet alive.

What I don't understand is why the majority of people keeps defending a system that is knowingly, actively and inevitably destroying lives, our planet and our future.


This went pretty off-topic sorry, but I just wanted to give an insight to El Cid. Now back to topic.

6
The rest / Re: A must read
« on: January 23, 2019, 01:31:16 PM »
Whoops  - pressed remove instead of modify

Quote
Quote from: vox_mundi on Today at 11:24:14 AM
Chris Hedges goes full-on 'medieval' with the climate denying 'Christian right' and corporate rape of the planet.

Confronting the Culture of Death
http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/chris-hedges/83130/confronting-the-culture-of-death
the climate denying 'Christian right'

I am personally convinced that many evangelical Christians (perhaps especially in the USA) are sure that climate change exists, hope that it will happen very quickly, and hope that we will accelerate our burning of fossil fuels.

Why? To bring on the end of days, Armageddon and the Second Coming.

The narrative has many strands. It was reported that amongst many evangelicals, the movement of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and worsening of relations between Israel and Palestine combined with the US's unconditional support to Israel are welcomed. In their view this is part of the process of creating Greater Israel (from the Med to the Red Sea) with all of Jerusalem as its undisputed capital. This is also a necessary condition for Armageddon and the second coming.

There is a concern amongst some commentators that there are some weirdos surrounding Trump who encourage policies that contribute to political instability, populism and conflict either through this religious conviction and / or belief that such actions will help Trump to maintain popularity with his voter base. "4 more years!!"

Perhaps I will be asked for links. I will not provide. Life is depressing enough already. Poking around in those places in the www I will no longer do.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 02:40:02 PM »
Fall ends December 21.

I would put melting continuing in the CAB, this year, until December 21st, in very low fractions of 0.5.

There is ice in the Beaufort, close to shore and in the Hudson, which still has not melted out.  Ditto the NW passage, CAA and, let us not forget, the ESS.

You are asking us to believe that a storm of such intensity that it will pump warm water, from 100m down, over the entire CAB, whether it is ice covered or not, will turn up and rage over the arctic from now until October.

Probability?  Very low.  The CAB will be below 0C by September and will drop from there.  Once the sun goes down that temp will drop much more.

There may come a day when this happens.  Just not this decade, or likely the next.

8
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 10, 2018, 02:03:23 AM »
I love all types of fish and seafood. I have quit eating it because we are destroying fisheries across the planet and I don't want to contribute to this.

My main sources of meat protein are organic chicken and beef.

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