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Consequences / Re: Abrupt Warming Event

« on: February 13, 2019, 12:08:11 AM »

I think this stands as a record breaking event...responses to 2 comments I made nearly 6 years ago. 

I'm so old, I don't remember making them.

That is funny. I am at  a loss as to why this thread 'suddenly' appeared as if it was recent.

Aha, now I see why. OK, well it's still funny

PS Nothing of important significance has changed since 2013 anyway.

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Consequences / Re: Abrupt Warming Event

« on: February 12, 2019, 05:03:45 PM »

Agreed, the "UN FCCC system" has turned into a force for cognitive dissonance, allowing us to continue to believe things that are being proven patently false by actual real world events - like being able to reconcile endless growth with combating climate change. The next IPCC report will be interesting reading as to what is the next wheeze to reconcile the unreconcilable, maybe ramping up BECCS and fossil fuel CCS even more, adding in speculative DACS (Direct Air Capture), or perhaps even a little SRM (Solar Radiation Management). A menu for self-deception.

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Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

« on: January 30, 2019, 10:14:45 AM »

-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?

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Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: January 26, 2019, 04:35:07 PM »

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Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

« on: January 24, 2019, 07:57:32 PM »

I think this qualifies as "weird" weather:

The NCEP GFS 0.5deg analysis 2m air temperature has the Northern Hemisphere average temperature dropping to it's lowest in at least 4 years over the coming 7 days.

Hmmmm....if I read this chart correctly, the temperatures will drop all the way to the average temperature for the days in question. What is weird about this?

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The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA-Poll

« on: November 08, 2018, 01:18:45 PM »

Well, there *was* a Blue Wave, seriously under-reported.
.

Ok, you can have "small wave" instead of "big ripple" 

Again - this still wasn't as big as people have been saying for the last 2 years. Trump still has 100% negative coverage besides FOX, endless protests and demonstrations against him , he still has about the same 42'ish average rating and the best the dems managed was to win the house by 10-12 seats and also lose more in the senate.  I guess each side feels better claiming victory.

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The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA

« on: November 07, 2018, 07:47:36 PM »

VICTORY !! said the democrats

VICTORY !! said Trump.

Not a lot has changed in opinions amongst the population of the USA in general. Say I

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Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: November 02, 2018, 09:11:13 AM »

The simple fact is that, with climate change, food insecurity across the planet will grow unrelentingly. Pointing to the effects of a couple of years of global bountiful harvests as a way of arguing that this need not be the case is no different than pointing to the effects of a La Nina as evidence that global warming will not continue.

As we are force marched to our inevitable future where billions will die of starvation and heat stress, it is necessarily so that the weakest and most vulnerable will die first. The sick, the elderly, young children, the poor will go first. This is no different than what happened in the Nazi death camps during WWII. The rest will toil relentlessly until we meet a similar fate.

The thing is, however, that those three years came on the back of a few decades of year on year reductions in the number of people going hungry. The last 3 years have set us back to where we stood 7 years beforehand, but there are still many fewer people going hungry than there were a decade before that, and it remains to be seen whether the previous downward trend will resume, or whether we truly are experiencing this sad change of direction now.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)

« on: October 25, 2018, 03:12:07 PM »

It doesn't really belong in this thread, but a lot of the argument between bbr and others hinges on the speed at which arctic warming is likely to speed up Greenland ice cap melting and  bbr is right that the Greenland ice caps's loss rate hasn't really been dented yet - which certainly doesn't mean that there isn't any climate change, as all the sea ice data presented on this thread shows.

Sam writes of the ice cap being "big and deep" and taking something like "100 - 200" years to go.

I am not sure whether some of the participants of this thread realise just how massive the ice cap is.

With a mass of over 2.6 x 10⁶ Gt at the present annual rate of loss (ca. 3  x 10² Gt /yr), the cap would take ca. 8000 yrs to melt, 40 - 80x longer than the figure mentioned by Sam.

To my way of thinking the rate of the ice cap's loss is going to have to speed up by a factor of 10 to 100 before ice cap loss in itself is going to be a big determining factor in climate change and until that happens - and this is bbr's point - there are a number of negative feedback loops that, at least in the last few years, tend to have slowed down rather than speeded up the rate of Greenland ice cap ice loss.

So the question of what happens next to climate and weather after the likely occurrence of an ice free arctic in summer during the next decade or so remains open to speculation - the effects will probably be as dramatic as bbr thinks, but one scenario that is unlikely is that there will be any really significant change to the mass of the Greenland ice cap, which still has ca. 99.9% of its mass intact compared to 2002.

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Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures

« on: October 18, 2018, 01:00:03 PM »

James Hansen just posted this graph a couple of days ago. Idea being that when you connect La Niña minima you get a decadal trend (for the last decade) of 0.38C.

There was talk about that in the comments at Tamino's recently.  I'm not the only person who was disappointed to see Hansen doing that.  It's the kind of cheesy amateurish thing that you'd normally see elsewhere.  Like, I remember some denialist connecting the 1998 El Nino and 2010 El Ninos in HADCRUT and saying "see, no warming".

Hansen can do better than that. 

Edit to add: Welcome to ASIF, wdmn.  Sorry about the grumpy response to your first post here...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: October 12, 2018, 03:48:45 AM »

Here is the animation I mentioned. It focuses on the behavior of the Chukchi on its way to being seasonally ice-free. Before 1990 the Chukchi was rather stable, with about half of it melting each year. But then changes came along - earlier melt onset, a higher percentage of melt culminated by the first BOE in 2007, a later refreeze onset, and a later refreeze completion. The process wasn't immediate, but over two decades the changes are enormous. The length of time in which the Chukchi is less than fully ice-covered has increased from ~5 months to ~8 months.
I believe the CAB will undergo a quite similar process, though hopefully longer. The process has already started, and 2012 and 2016 proved a lot of the CAB is vulnerable, while 2018 is proving that the refreeze can be delayed significantly.

Notable years pushing the Chukchi envelope:
1991 (late refreeze)
1993 (new minimum)
1998 (new minimum)
2004 (new minimum)
2006 (late refreeze)
2007 (new minimum near zero, late refreeze)
2012 (earlier near zero)
2016 (late final refreeze, first into January)
2017 (early melt, late refreeze)

Notes: January of the following year is appended to each year. The date range shown is April 15th to January 20th. Data is NSIDC extent.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: October 08, 2018, 10:02:04 AM »

I'm amazed that people can still take extrapolations seriously. If you had extrapolated in 2007, 8, or 12 based on either extent or volume or whatever, we should already be ice free. We are not, which proves the point: extrapolation does not work. It doesn't work, beacuse it is a nonlinear system, and melting the shelf is not the same as melting the central pack. Therefore extrapolations are rather a waste of time.

Even if you wanted to extrapolate I would urge to disregard anything other than the central pack, as most everything else melts out anyway, and extrapolate just the central pack going down to zero. Even this is probably close to useless but much better than using the total volume or extent numbers.

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The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

« on: October 07, 2018, 04:25:25 PM »

....snip  Focusing too much on Kavanaugh, and ignoring other issues, may be detrimental.

It sure will be. Also I have heard from the GOP side people calling to continue and haunt Ford ,her lawyers and some of the other accusers to "get to the bottom of this". For both sides this is really a bad idea.

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The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

« on: October 03, 2018, 08:07:34 AM »

At the same time as all the stuff you have written up there...  Fords testimony is being attacked for multiple perjury instances. One of her ex boyfriend has said in written statement

In a written declaration released Tuesday and obtained by Fox News, an ex-boyfriend of Christine Blasey Ford, the California professor accusing Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, directly contradicts her testimony under oath last week that she had never helped anyone prepare for a polygraph examination.

The former boyfriend, whose name was redacted in the declaration, also said Ford neither mentioned Kavanaugh nor said she was a victim of sexual misconduct during the time they were dating from about 1992 to 1998. He said he saw Ford helping a woman he believed was her "life-long best friend" prepare for a potential polygraph test. He added that the woman had been interviewing for jobs with the FBI and U.S. Attorney's office.

He also claimed Ford never voiced any fear of flying (even while aboard a propeller plane) and seemingly had no problem living in a small, 500 sq. ft. apartment with one door -- apparently contradicting her claims that she could not testify promptly in D.C. because she felt uncomfortable traveling on planes, as well as her suggestion that her memories of Kavanuagh's alleged assault prompted her to feel unsafe living in a closed space or one without a second front door.

Ford "never expressed a fear of closed quarters, tight spaces, or places with only one exit," the former boyfriend wrote. On Thursday, Ford testified, "I was hoping to avoid getting on an airplane. But I eventually was able to get up the gumption with the help of some friends and get on the plane." She also acknowledged regularly -- and, in her words, "unfortunately" -- traveling on planes for work and hobbies.

It seems the more one digs the more comes up. EVERYONE is lying at some level.

edit:
I also see that Feinstein is asking that the new FBI investigation not go public. Strange.

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The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

« on: October 02, 2018, 04:18:49 PM »

Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are pretty stable, according to 538.com.  But at this stage, the important opinion polls are about the upcoming Congressional races.  There does seem to be a slow, steady  trend of improving chances for the Dems:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The problem with most of these polls is that the total of both sides is not 100%. In this specific aggregate we have a total of 90% and most others are the same. Where are those other 10% going? In the current atmosphere I would say many are GOP or Trump supporters that aren't sure or don't want to be in polls.

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The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

« on: September 30, 2018, 11:25:13 PM »

I suspect that will happen only if the FBI finds some credible evidence to support Ford’s allegations.  If their investigation supports Kavanaugh’s claims or they find nothing, then I would expect a confirmation.  The Democrats have bet everything on an FBI investigation.  If it comes up blank, they will be out of options.  On a side note, the latest poll in Cal, shows Feinstein’s lead down to 11, and her support at less than half.  This is a big drop, since before the allegations of Dr. Ford were presented.

That's a huge loss of support in a very Blue State.
If Ford vs Kavanaugh isn't playing well in California, what does that do to Democratic hopes in much needed Purple States?


FWIW I'm ignoring the possibility of the FBI digging up anything new that will sway opinions in the next few days. Feinstein has had Ford's claims for some time & if more corroboration was out there we would have heard it by now.
Terry

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Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: September 18, 2018, 12:41:39 PM »

The remnants of Hurricane Helene have been reborn as "Storm Ali".

A sex-change, just like (but in reverse) the recent reincarnation of "Doctor Who".

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Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures

« on: September 13, 2018, 09:46:09 PM »

In other words, they're basically polar opposites! 

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The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA

« on: September 11, 2018, 04:18:30 PM »

Once again a thread is dominated by two people who should know better.

I think I will get my USA election news and opinion from everywhere and anywhere but here. (Sorry, Klondike Kat - I like your stuff but...)

"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season

« on: September 01, 2018, 11:39:52 AM »

https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

As at 31 August 2018

On schedule without drama the Greenland melting season finishes.  The SMB gain for the year is 150 gt above average.

The last two days did give a bit of drama as S. Greenland got a good bit of rain and snow from a low which is now zooming up the East Greenland coast.

GFS suggests that S Greenland will get another dose of precipitation in about a weeks time - but this time from way down south.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance which excludes mass loss from calving, that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.

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