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Messages - JD

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 06:09:55 AM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Victoria got rid of Covid via masks, testing, tracing, and strong leadership.

The numbers started to drop before the weather started to warm up, and while I agree that it appears Covid thrives in colder weather and that it will have played one part of many in getting Covid under control in Victoria, it certainly wasn't the main reason.

Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.
Other regions of Australia get as cold as Melbourne but they didn't have outbreaks that got out of control.... their outbreaks were tested and traced out of existence.

What happened here was a combination of really bad luck with a few super spreaders and several trials of control that didn't work plus huge mismanagement of the Federally run aged care facilities. And aged care mismanagement is a big reason for the spread.... and to underline this point a bit more... Federally run aged care facilities with less funding, fewer nurses to patient rations, accounted for 100% of the deaths via Covid in Victoria.
Victorian run aged care had zero deaths.
This one thing alone highlights very strongly that managing the spread of Covid makes a massive difference and letting run wild is a terrible idea.
For some numbers.... Fed funded aged care facilities 650 +/- and Victoria funded is 190 +/-
655 old people died in federal funded aged care.... zero in Victoria funded aged care.

Also, State borders in Australia open or are restricted based on the circumstances. We also have open borders with New Zealand, who also has Covid under control through strong leadership, testing, tracing and masks when required.

Your line of thinking is just wrong in terms of herd immunity..... and herd immunity is just going to kill a lot of people, damage even more, and we don't even know how long natural immunity lasts so.... if it is only 3 months, it is just letting the virus do what it does so well.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:44 PM »
Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so.

Thought this might be in response to my comment where I called herd immunity evil so I will respond.

I am a white male, 64 years old, and go to work every day in one of the poorest communites in Chicago, comprised entirely of persons of color. (30% Hispanic, 70% black) I work for a not for profit that is working with community groups to bring development to a community that has suffered from decades of disinvestment. I've installed gardens, boarded up vacant buildings, connected small businesses to available resources, contributed to the revival of a rich tradition in art, routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

And herd immunity which you are suggesting is the best approach will hurt the most those for whom you profess such concern, communities of color.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 27, 2020, 10:22:35 PM »
Crazy thought, but is this virus making people stupid? Is being a covidiot a symptom of the illness?

All people are stupid. The only difference between people is that some know this and others don't.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: May 08, 2020, 11:35:26 AM »
America is getting the boot...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 25, 2020, 10:07:02 PM »

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: March 29, 2020, 06:12:25 PM »
I had prepared a commented animation, but Baking preceded me.
I publish it anyway for the added information.
I used the images from the 17th and today, with 12 days interval to highlight residual movements. I added an arrow on a reference point of the Cork2 and another arrow on a reference point of the iceberg A, the iceberg east of the Cork2, to show the shift of the Cork2 relative to A.
The images are aligned with the eastern part of the SIS to show the residual motion of the western part of the SIS, motion induced by the SWT drive.
As far as Cork2 is concerned, it should be remembered that the modest pressure of Cork2 on the SIS, whose origin I described in a previous post, is sufficient to keep it attached to the SIS. A similar speech can be made for the small iceberg B in the west of Cork2 (B is irrelevant for the rest and I only mention it as a curiosity).

The image is very zoomed, click twice to animate and zoom in.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:50:13 PM »
The two rifts in the SIS have expanded and are clearly visible in the high-resolution Sentinel1 images. I think they are even longer, but the Sentinel2 images to confirm this are not available at the moment.  >:(  >:(
I think they will extend later in the SWT and will have to be followed as they may lead to significant calvings in the SWT.
For this reason I named them SR1 and SR2 (South Rift 1 et 2).

One of the causes of these rifts could well be the SWT being pushed to NE, as it is no longer forced to turn by the pressure of the MIS (the world of old), nor by the Cork (the world of yesterday).

Translated with (free version)

Echoing the previous 2 comments, at risk of creating a "too long" off-topic comment chain.

These are the type of threads & information I come here for. I love it, thanks.


I just want to "join" Shared Humanity in saying that your contributions in this thread are very valuable and necessary. I thank you for your daily effort of informing us about the latest results of peer-reviewed science.


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