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Messages - Ardeus

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2019, 02:24:01 AM »
 I am certain that anything like the GAC would have halved the final numbers this year . Mosaic news reply 87 .. A-team SMOS runs show how little ice was left over 50cm thick . With a little bit of stirring almost any time in the late summer and the 50cm SMOS line could easily have been the minimum extent/area line .
 It was very much 'can sunny anti-cyclonic weather all summer melt all the ice' ?  Not yet . But scarily close . We are not so much 4,000,000 sq kms away from ice free . We are 50 cms away ! .. b.c.



Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 10:08:40 AM »
This is a poll I am very interested in. I would prefer you people don’t comment on your vote, just answer truthfully, or ignore it, please. Everything anonymous (or anoni-miss in deplorables dialect).

In case I wasn’t clear. I did not and will not vote at all. I believe the question and poll is malformed. It is based on an interpretation of how and why people respond as they do that has little to do with reality.

Because I believe it is malformed, I believe the results will be entirely meaningless.

And also as a result, despite your desire that people simply vote and not comment, the only meaningful vote is the opposite - no vote, and lengthy comment.


Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:55:47 PM »
short , brutish and nasty indeed ! :)

Is not the Arctic warming at twice the rate of the world average?
If so, and the ratio is maintained, for the Arctic +4 = +8.

I think that means an ice-free Arctic summer.
I think that means an awful lot of Greenland Ice Sheet melting.
I assume the Antarctic gets somewhat warmer. I guess that means WAIS collapse.

I think that means AbruptSLR happening and unstoppable.
I think that means many hundreds of millions of people having to move. Where to?

Other major impacts
- too much water (not one-off floods, permanent rainfall increase) in some places
- too little water (not one-off drought, permanent rainfall decrease) in other places
- too much heat so large areas become Death Valley

A lot more of the planet becomes unsuitable for human habitation e.g. Middle East, Phoenix, Las Vegas, large parts of the Mississippi Missouri river basin.

Another few hundred million people have to leave. Where to?

Europe bans immigration. Navies shoot on sight migrant ships.
Trump's successors build an electrified wall - border guards shoot on sight (learning from example of the Berlin Wall)

After several really difficult generations what comes out the other end ?
- A high-tech AI new human civilisation, or
- A few humans surviving quite well with pre-industrial technology, or
- Fewer humans than today with enough technology and the determination to screw up all over again. You can't change the nature of the beast?

I think if your game assumes that +4 degrees is going to happen it can't have a happy ending.
I've made myself a bit gloomy.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 22, 2019, 11:19:46 AM »
 I was the first person I knew to be a Lene Lovich fan .. even had to buy new copies of albums .. overplayed .. b.c.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 22, 2019, 10:40:22 AM »
NDW FTW! \o/

(for the non-Germans: NDW=Neue Deutsche Welle 'new German wave', is a remarkable epoche in German music history.)

Edit: Rather German-speaking than German. I remember you Falko!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 07, 2019, 12:11:26 AM »
The new near-real-time Albedo-Warming Potential script is programmed. If it updates tomorrow as intended I post the website link. The regional data has to wait until I structure the regional data from the previous 40 years.

-55 F wind chill here in Minneapolis (-48 C). Most everything is shut down, including postal service. But I'm going out in a few hours to make tons of soup for the homeless and anyone else who wants it. Probably minestrone. Anybody have good recipes?

You are a good soul.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2018, 05:10:25 AM »

December 23rd, 2018:
     11,778,497 km2, an increase of 26,104 km2.
     2018 is the 4th lowest on record.

Have an excellent day tomorrow! I will be on holiday, so I will not post.  :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: December 23, 2018, 09:57:03 AM »
Q: "How do you view humanity's present situation in terms of the climate crisis and our attempts to deal with it at the UN climate negotiations?"

NOAM: Well, we face a very serious dilemma. A stark, cruel dilemma. On the one hand there is a severe, dire crisis. Dealing with it cannot be delayed. It's the most important issue that has arisen in human history. This generation - in fact today's leaders and people - will make a decision as to whether organized human society can survive in any decent livable form. It's no less than that.

That's one horn of the dilemma. The other horn of the dilemma is that we have to face the reality of the world. We have to find ways of reacting that are not only justified, but are also feasible and effective.

So, for example it would be entirely justified to send the most powerful person in the world, the President of the United States to The Hague for trial for severe crimes against humanity. And many lesser figures as well. That would be justified. (But) It's not feasible, it's not effective. To choose approaches that are feasible and effective, we have to recognize the reality of the situation we face and adjust our approaches accordingly. [...]

No one's gonna brought to the Hague. But recognizing that it would be legitimate and justified is an important way of helping the people comprehend the enormity of what is happening before their eyes. We should always bear in mind the slogan that Antonio Gramsci made famous: "We should have pessimism of the intellect, but optimism of the will." It has never been more important than it is now.


This is an emergency situation – action is urgent.
Our Government isn’t acting in accordance with what science and history tells us.
Therefore our Government is criminally negligent.
We have a moral duty to rebel, whatever our politics.
History shows us that peaceful civil disobedience is an effective way to bring about change.
Our lives have meaning when we follow our conscience and fight to protect what we love.
We ask others who feel the same way to join our peaceful Rebellion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 14, 2018, 10:35:57 PM »
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2018, 02:31:58 PM »
The freeze is also proceeding very slowly in the Pacific Gateway seas.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2018, 02:28:19 PM »
It seems that much of the recent stall or even reverse of this season's freeze has happened in the Atlantic Front. (Please Aluminium, give us an update of your gif on the freezing thread).

Here are some graphs.

Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2018, 03:38:13 AM »
Terry btw, though somewhat younger, I do share your dreams, and disappointment in them. I guess we should have elected the science fiction writers instead of the politicians. But yeah, this is way outside the scope of 2018 Mauna Loa...

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 02, 2018, 10:30:44 AM »
Watch this

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 18, 2018, 12:38:53 AM »
To paraphrase Marie Antoinette ...

"Let them drive Teslas"

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