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Messages - Tim

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Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:52:14 AM »
I do not pretend to have any expertise on hurricanes.  However, I have noticed the discussion has focused on Atlantic hurricanes. 

It is my understanding the two hurricanes that hit Mozambique this year were unpresidented, I am also pretty sure that in February we had the first ever category 5 hurricane that formed (in the Pacific) that early north of the equator. 

Those seem to be some additional important facts to add to this discussion.

2
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:50:58 AM »
Quote
While models and simulations have shown the likelihood of increases, they have not been observed to date.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

What a load of BS.

The information in that page related to the statistical analysis of Atlantic hurricanes is outdated by more than a decade!

It completely misses the hottest years of record and the most destructive. It completely misses the phenomenon of rapid amplification we have seen for the last few years. It completely misses the wetness experienced during in Harvey or the incredibly crazy year of 2017.

KkK and cowards like him are counting on the increased hurricane frequency and intensity to go back down to 20th century levels. Fools. The warming will continue. So will the increase in hurricane frequency and intensity.  Can there be a lull? sure, but that likelihood is decreasing as temperatures increase.

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:44:14 AM »
There is some evidence that the intensity of the largest ones is increasing, as is expected from warmer SSTs.

There isn't "some" evidence....there is a lot of evidence.

Once again....

17 storms since 2016 w/ sustained winds >= 150 mph.
Wettest storm in US history (Harvey)
Wettest US storm north of Florida (Florence)
Wettest storm in Hawaiian history (Lane)
Highest wind speed storm globally (Patricia)
Dvorak Scale breaker....8.1 on an 8.0 scale and most powerful landfalling cyclone ever (Haiyan)
Record breaking S. Hemisphere cyclone (Idai)

Outside of the pure tropical storms, we had a record bombogenesis event in the Atlantic the winter before last. We had a record bombogenesis event in the US plains this winter.

We are living in an an era of unprecedented big storm activity in the era of record keeping.

Statistician's want large sample sizes to reach conclusions and tropical storms don't offer that. In the absence of large numbers we're left with common sense to guide us.

There is an abundance of evidence in front of us.

4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 01:07:31 AM »
It is the denier playbook to sew doubt where they can and they seize on the small number of major tropical.cyclones as their weapon. Not enough to provide a statistical sample, they say.

This despite the overwhelmingly cogent scientific argument that AGW should increase storm intensity (wind speed and precipitation).

We know that AGW is making the ocean and air warmer.
We know that a warm ocean is is a prerequisite for a major hurricane.
We know that warm air holds more water vapor.
We have paleo evidence of massive boulders being moved great distances which can only be explained by storms much larger than those we see today at times when the earth was warmer.

We have an overwhelming amount of anecdotal evidence in front of us supporting the very simple expectation that storms will get more intense and wetter as the planet heats up. In a court of law, we are way beyond the threshold of reasonable doubt.

The thickening GHG blanket is guilty.

There is no cogent explanation for why storms would not get stronger.

5
The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: June 01, 2019, 06:22:44 PM »
@wdmn
From a Guardian comment I made last year, and I think on topic:

https://discussion.theguardian.com/comment-permalink/113761736
"
humans are nature  ->
  smart humans invent potentially destructive technology  ->
    some human tribes feel and think they have supremacy over nature  ->
      these humans cut the invisible ties with nature and thus with themselves  ->
        insanity  ->
           total destruction"

(Above is a minimally expressed sequence. There are several loops in this I didn't display, concerning insanity and more 'layers' of supremacy)

Please don't ask me what the "invisible ties with nature" are. I can't explain it but I understand it. A lot of things are impossible to express exact and complete in human language.

Finally I think if you read my first couple of posts in this thread carefully perhaps then you are more open to the condensed wording I use and try to follow the line of thought.

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