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Messages - IceConcerned

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The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: January 10, 2021, 11:44:13 AM »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design

1. Engineering is done with numbers. Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

2. To design a spacecraft right takes an infinite amount of effort. This is why it's a good idea to design them to operate when some things are wrong .

3. Design is an iterative process. The necessary number of iterations is one more than the number you have currently done. This is true at any point in time.

4. Your best design efforts will inevitably wind up being useless in the final design. Learn to live with the disappointment.

5. (Miller's Law) Three points determine a curve.

6. (Mar's Law) Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker.

7. At the start of any design effort, the person who most wants to be team leader is least likely to be capable of it.

8. In nature, the optimum is almost always in the middle somewhere. Distrust assertions that the optimum is at an extreme point.

9. Not having all the information you need is never a satisfactory excuse for not starting the analysis.

10. When in doubt, estimate. In an emergency, guess. But be sure to go back and clean up the mess when the real numbers come along.

11. Sometimes, the fastest way to get to the end is to throw everything out and start over.

12. There is never a single right solution. There are always multiple wrong ones, though.

13. Design is based on requirements. There's no justification for designing something one bit "better" than the requirements dictate.

14. (Edison's Law) "Better" is the enemy of "good".

15. (Shea's Law) The ability to improve a design occurs primarily at the interfaces. This is also the prime location for screwing it up.

16. The previous people who did a similar analysis did not have a direct pipeline to the wisdom of the ages. There is therefore no reason to believe their analysis over yours. There is especially no reason to present their analysis as yours.

17. The fact that an analysis appears in print has no relationship to the likelihood of its being correct.

18. Past experience is excellent for providing a reality check. Too much reality can doom an otherwise worthwhile design, though.

19. The odds are greatly against you being immensely smarter than everyone else in the field. If your analysis says your terminal velocity is twice the speed of light, you may have invented warp drive, but the chances are a lot better that you've screwed up.

20. A bad design with a good presentation is doomed eventually. A good design with a bad presentation is doomed immediately.

21. (Larrabee's Law) Half of everything you hear in a classroom is crap. Education is figuring out which half is which.

22. When in doubt, document. (Documentation requirements will reach a maximum shortly after the termination of a program.)

23. The schedule you develop will seem like a complete work of fiction up until the time your customer fires you for not meeting it.

24. It's called a "Work Breakdown Structure" because the Work remaining will grow until you have a Breakdown, unless you enforce some Structure on it.

25. (Bowden's Law) Following a testing failure, it's always possible to refine the analysis to show that you really had negative margins all along.

26. (Montemerlo's Law) Don't do nuthin' dumb.

27. (Varsi's Law) Schedules only move in one direction.

28. (Ranger's Law) There ain't no such thing as a free launch.

29. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Program Management) To get an accurate estimate of final program requirements, multiply the initial time estimates by pi, and slide the decimal point on the cost estimates one place to the right.

30. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Engineering Design) If you want to have a maximum effect on the design of a new engineering system, learn to draw. Engineers always wind up designing the vehicle to look like the initial artist's concept.

31. (Mo's Law of Evolutionary Development) You can't get to the moon by climbing successively taller trees.

32. (Atkin's Law of Demonstrations) When the hardware is working perfectly, the really important visitors don't show up.

33. (Patton's Law of Program Planning) A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan next week.

34. (Roosevelt's Law of Task Planning) Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.

35. (de Saint-Exupery's Law of Design) A designer knows that they have achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.

36. Any run-of-the-mill engineer can design something which is elegant. A good engineer designs systems to be efficient. A great engineer designs them to be effective.

37. (Henshaw's Law) One key to success in a mission is establishing clear lines of blame.

38. Capabilities drive requirements, regardless of what the systems engineering textbooks say.

39. Any exploration program which "just happens" to include a new launch vehicle is, de facto, a launch vehicle program.

39. (alternate formulation) The three keys to keeping a new human space program affordable and on schedule:
       1)  No new launch vehicles.
       2)  No new launch vehicles.
       3)  Whatever you do, don't develop any new launch vehicles.

40. (McBryan's Law) You can't make it better until you make it work.

41. There's never enough time to do it right, but somehow, there's always enough time to do it over.

42. If there's not a flight program, there's no money.
      If there is a flight program, there's no time.

43. You really understand something the third time you see it (or the first time you teach it.)

44. Space is a completely unforgiving environment. If you screw up the engineering, somebody dies (and there's no partial credit because most of the analysis was right...)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 06:53:23 PM »
Though ye might like this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 08:34:09 PM »
That's really great BornFromTheVoid, many thanks.

A question, could you make a version that's much slower? And/or mark the loss per week with a colour? For me, that would mean even more information.
Your placing of dates and legenda & scale, and synchronising with the frames, and used font are also very good imo. You know your way around your tools :).
You have been a super visualizer and help for me.

Unfortunately I don't have time to do the animation this evening. But hopefully an image will suffice for now!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:14:49 AM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: April 13, 2020, 03:05:10 PM »
Is Dr. Didier Raoult (of COVID-19 miracle drug hydroxychloroquine fame) a body double of Trump doc Harold Bornstein? They even have the almost same shirt:

They also look like Jean Pierre van Rossem lightweight versions (h/t kassy)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:00:35 PM »
A storm went over Lincoln and basically popped it open.

Kennedy still shows tidal action.

Upper Kane cracking once in a while but the southern arch is still holding the door.

You will not believe what happens next!

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 06, 2019, 10:52:01 PM »
While waiting for the crack (the cork doesn't want to give in), and always to show the complementarity between Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2, I wanted to watch the rift opening at the NW in the SWT.

Attached are the commented images: Sentinel1, Sentinel 2 and two zooms of the Sentinel 2 image

I found them interesting, hence this post

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 07:50:50 AM »
The posts from Alexander555 on this subject have no basis in fact whatsoever.


For Germany, it is necessary to have migration or else it's breaking down. We are dependent on a steady population number. If this number would go down, the social system would collapse. And without migration, the population would shrink.

Germany is in the heart of Europe. Migration is normal here dating back since humans are a thing. Migration here is the default state.

Only a racist mind would think this is somehow bad.

Being German means you live here and respect the Grundgesetz, not having blond hair and blue eyes.

Racists don't respect the Grundgesetz because they are inherently anti-democratic.

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