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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 06:36:04 PM »

Quote
No one would have believed, in the last years of the nineteenth century, that human affairs were being watched from the timeless worlds of space. No one could have dreamed that we were being scrutinised as someone with a microscope studies creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. Few men even considered the possibility of life on other planets. And yet, across the gulf of space, minds immeasurably superior to ours regarded this earth with envious eyes, and they drew their plans against us......

The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one, he said
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one...
But still, they come!

Umm, better make that


The chances of anyone going to Mars are a million to one, they said...

But slowly, and surely, Musk advanced his plans.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 05, 2020, 06:12:56 PM »
For the first time since 1914, there are no drilling rigs active in Venezuela.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Venezuelas-Rig-Count-Officially-Falls-To-Zero.html

Quote
Venezuela’s Rig Count Officially Falls To Zero
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 05, 2020

Venezuela no longer has any operational oil rigs after the last oilfield services firm that was still drilling for oil in the country holding the world’s largest crude oil reserves pulled its only rig out of service.

Quote
With Nabors shutting down its rig activity, Venezuela is now left with zero oil drilling rigs, Russ Dallen, founder of investment bank Caracas Capital, told Houston Chronicle.

That sends the Latin American nation back more than a century in terms of rig count, to before 1914 when Venezuela’s first oil well was drilled, according to Dallen.

Venezuela’s oil production has been in freefall for several years, but the U.S. sanctions on its industry and exports, the crash in demand, and the pandemic further accelerated the decline.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:37:09 PM »
Quote
A single drop of evidence that personal car ownership over public transport will beat climate change. Anything. Please. For the love of god. Will this forum that prides itself as a scientific forum give me a single piece of evidence.
AKA construct a straw man and expect us to demolish it for you.
Your imagination you deal with it.

 More people use personal cars than public transport every day.
Replacing ice cars with electric ones is a win for climate change .
Musk is proposing to make personal ownership of cars obsolete. As a personal  car is used about 2% of the time increasing  that usage rate by a large margin makes better use of the emissions inherent in its construction. Another win for climate change.

Your straw man presents a binary option private cars / public transport.
This is a technique common with deniers ...pick only  only one technology then state it will not solve climate change alone so is not worth pursuing.
In the real world a range of solutions will limit our emissions  not any one technology by itself .

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 21, 2020, 04:13:26 PM »
Many people have "life without"

Some people seek "life without"

Some Many more people will have "life without" thrust upon them?

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 20, 2020, 08:41:29 PM »
I find nannings hubris grating.
He benefits from his highly developed society yet seeks to pull it down to his level.
An entire society  rejecting the modern world  has been tried before .
Year zero being one example.
The outcome was a horrific toll on human life and dignity.
I chose to live much as nanning does.
I do not think making every one else live as i do is possible without the use of force that would be more destructive to both humanity and the environment as business as usual .

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars Part Deux
« on: July 18, 2020, 11:30:43 AM »
Nanning, I wish you wouldn't be offended so. Just so that you are aware, your posts have a lot of effect and get people to thinking. But I think you are overly focused on the aspect of personal example and miss something in the aspect of a global solution.
Maybe the difference with the people in the Guardian comment section is that on this forum are gathered people who are aware of and care about solving the problems of all humanity, so are less focused on their own personal situation and issues.
A global solution to the private car problem should address the huge segments of:
* People who don't care abut AGW, pollution and other long-term trends
* People for whom the car is the most efficient, the cheapest, or the only possible method, of getting from point A to point B, especially for getting to the workplace, but also for visiting relatives and for buying everyday necessities.

You constantly assume that people who are not convinced by your ideas do so because of their own personal situation, "in love with their cars". "luxury toys", "privileged", "laziness", "scared to lose it", and so on. I think this overlooks the logical arguments people make which highlight the problem of implementing your ideas globally - namely the lack of popular support for them, and the need for alternative transportation solutions for masses of people, solution which in most cases do not currently exist, and that in many cases are not economical to be put in place, or have great political/popular resistance. This is not about you and not about me, it is about the global population, all 7.5 billion of them, and the rate of addition, 80 million net extra people every year. And about the global fleet of private cars, all 1.2 billion of them, and the rate of addition, 80 million new cars every year.
If you think all 80 million cars are sold because of consumerism, mass advertising and brainwashing, and people "in love with their cars", I believe you are wrong. There are economical and logical reasons why so many people spend so much on a huge machine that mainly gives financial headaches. Find the reasons. Deal with the reasons, in a manner that will actually get widely implemented.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:34:44 PM »
Sig, I wil hardly reach any members/readers there because this one is by far the most active one regarding posts and therefore readers.

I want to be able to influence people with strong scientific arguments against green BAU. I think that should not be hindered and I am not shouting it all over the forum. Can I please have some room to move? The chance to influence others is the primary reason why I came to this forum.

As Sigmetnow quoted from Neven:  "This thread is for discussing the latest in EV technology and infrastructure. The original Cars, cars and more cars thread can be used to discuss what it all means as a solution in the greater scheme of things."

Please respect the community here.  If your chief aim is to influence the readership, you're on the wrong forum entirely.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 16, 2020, 01:29:52 AM »
In the US, a seven year-old financial technology startup raised $100 million to invest in 300 solar power companies.

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2020/07/15/solar-energy-startups-fintech-wunder-capital.html

Quote
Boulder solar industry fintech company raises more than $100 million
By Greg Avery
July 15, 2020

Solar financing company Wunder Capital raised a fresh $100 million fund from which it will help finance commercial and industrial-scale solar power projects around the U.S.

Quote
The money will go to solar project loans that Boulder-based Wunder Capital arranges with its network of more than 300 solar project installers and developers.

Wunder Capital assembles funds from credentialled investors and then finances the commercial and local government solar power projects that property owners and investors build at malls, factories, warehouses, libraries and other places. Its goal is to eliminate bottlenecks that have traditionally limited investment in solar power projects.

The 24-employee startup formed in 2013 and later graduated from the Boulder startup accelerator Techstars. It built financing software designed to match solar projects with funding, and its loans have financed solar projects with a total generating capacity of 185 megawatts of electricity.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 14, 2020, 05:07:14 PM »
Global Push for LNG Creates 'Gas Bubble' That Could Bust

...


Much of the rationale is falling apart. The world has changed dramatically since many LNG projects originally received the go-ahead. The price of LNG in Asia — the so-called Japan-Korea Marker, or JKM —collapsed to just above $2 per MMBtu this year, while U.S. natural gas prices (using the Henry Hub benchmark) have traded at roughly $1.80/MMBtu. After factoring in the cost of liquefaction and transport, the window to export American LNG on the spot market has temporarily closed. 

But deteriorating economics pre-date the pandemic. The market was already souring last year as a wave of new projects came online and demand failed to keep up. Market prices in Europe and Asia declined by roughly 45 percent in 2019 as export capacity swelled, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

If the market was already weakening, the pandemic decisively pushed it into a depression. Even contracted cargoes have been canceled in growing numbers in recent months as the worldwide glut deepens. For July and August, LNG buyers overseas canceled around 80 cargoes from the U.S., and export terminals on the Gulf Coast are only operating at a fraction of typical capacity. The more exports decline, the more gas becomes trapped within the United States, deepening the glut.

Despite the negative direction, the gas industry and its financial backers continued to pour capital into new LNG terminals, at least until recently. Last year was a record year for investment and the trend continued into the early part of 2020. Globally, spending on LNG infrastructure soared to $196 billion between April 2019 and May 2020, up from $82 billion in the year prior, according to the Global Energy Monitor study.

The spending spree is now hitting turbulence. At least 11 major LNG projects from around the globe have run into some form of disruption, with problems stemming from low natural gas prices, heightened protest from impacted communities, as well as disruptions due to the spread of COVID-19, according to Global Energy Monitor. Delays and canceled investment decisions are mounting.

...

However, others warn that the downturn is not transitory. Global Energy Monitor warned that the “gas bubble” could pop. Massive LNG projects carry multi-billion-dollar price tags, with very aggressive assumptions about demand growth. China stands at the very core of every long-term demand forecast. If China pursues alternatives, or even finds gas supplies via pipeline from its neighbors, the rosy scenarios could badly disappoint.

“China is like the single point of failure for the LNG industry,” Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told DeSmog. “In order to really inflate this market, it doesn't work without China.”

...

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/07/13/global-energy-monitor-report-lng-gas-bubble

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 13, 2020, 08:34:01 PM »
Going towards electric cars also forwards the technology for electrification of others areas .
like electric buses, mining and farm equipment .
I can not imagine  public transport working out here in the country side.
I also think the ecomodernism idea of us all living in highly congested city's is nutty as it will result in a population even more disconnected with nature and more degradation of the environment.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 09, 2020, 06:39:03 PM »
The Washington DC transit system just sold the air space above its parking lots to solar developers.  The deal will generate funds for public transit and allow for 12.8 MW of solar power capacity in an urban environment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2020/07/08/metro-agrees-solar-power-deal-worth-50-million/

Quote
Metro agrees to solar power deal worth $50 million
By
Justin George
July 8, 2020 at 4:12 p.m. PDT

Metro has sold 13 football fields’ worth of space at its parking lots and garages in the District and Prince George’s County for a solar power project worth up to $50 million over 25 years, the transit agency said Wednesday.

The deal provides SunPower Corporation and Goldman Sachs Renewable Power space on Metro’s surface parking lots and above its parking garages to install solar-paneled carports or canopies at four rail stations. Metro said the four sites will have the capacity to generate 12.8 megawatts, making it “the largest community solar project” in the Washington region.

12
Denmark trying to make it illegal for their government to fail to achieve interim goals on climate.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200706-the-law-that-could-make-climate-change-illegal

The Danish law has several safeguards to this end. Every year, the government will need to find a majority parliamentary approval of its global and national climate strategies. “The government will be held to account every year by the parliament,” says Dan Jørgensen, Denmark’s climate and energy minister. “If you’re not on track, the parliament can say, ‘Well, sorry, you’re not on track so you don’t get a majority.’ In theory, that will lead to a government having to step down.”

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 04, 2020, 01:53:45 AM »

GoSouthYoungins
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3931 on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:55 AM

Quote
Wow, so apparently everyone has an IQ of like 70 on this thread. Cool.  I've always wanted to do some charity work.


Capex being smaller than deprec isn't some silver bullet. I was simply pointing to it to show that Neil 70IQ-idea that Tesla was totally profitable but just spending the money on other stuff was total nonsense.

There were all sorts or responses. None of them made sense. Oren's was by far the closest.


I think I will wait to post here again until the BK happens. So goodbye for the next few months. You are all "not-brilliant" as neven wishes me to phrase it.

Q3 financials will be a disaster. fElon is already throwing a tantrum and attacking reporting who are, you know, reporting facts. My guess is about a half a B loss for this joke of a company.

It is truly sad that this corporate fraud as suckered so many good spirited ppl into this charade. Good day non-geniuses. Until the biggest "I told you so" ever, so long.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/RationalWiki:Leaving_and_never_coming_back




14
Policy and solutions / Re: Trains, Trams, Subways and Buses
« on: June 21, 2020, 04:22:06 PM »
Sigmetnow, This train situation is a new development and yes a debit card can fix it , I will help get her a card. There are some services in every county and there are people like Willi who help those at the very bottom . I know without someone as an advocate life is very hard indeed. I have access to her bank account and can deposit for her but you can’t believe how many times she has been rolled for what little she has.
 The lack of pay phones that limit communication, the lack of showers and public restrooms , and the use of electronic money make life harder.  I can try to help but there are thousands with no advocate. We all need to chip in a little with some actual connections to other humans outside our economic strata . We build the walls collectively .

15
Quote
I wish all forum readers would take their personal responsibility and stop being a part of the problem of Climate Change.

We as a rule do .
Just not exactly as you do.

Some random philosopher dude about 2,000 years ago was claimed to say.
 ἐν ᾧ γὰρ κρίματι κρίνετε κριθήσεσθε, καὶ ἐν ᾧ μέτρῳ μετρεῖτε μετρηθήσεται ὑμῖν.
Translated as.
 "For in the way you judge, you will be judged; and by your standard of measure, it will be measured to you.

Giving a shite.
I know exactly where the water comes from and where it all goes when I flush the toilet . The process has a net negative carbon impact as it uses rain water from my roof and feeds the worms in the  Biodigester buried in the garden. All power used is from solar on site. Any residual by products end up enhancing the new podocarp-hardwood forest I am nurturing over the 400sqm dispersal field so will lock up carbon for a very, very long time. Over the next twenty or so years I expect the carbon stored within the dispersal field will fully off set the energy used to create the entire system water pump, pipes, tanks even the solar panels that supply the power and sequester still more to help offset other facets of my lifestyle  . My legacy will be to leave a covenant over the forest here so it will be preserved as a carbon sink long after I am but dust and long forgotten  echos .

How about  what happens when you take a shite?
Power to supply the water, environmental impact of the source it comes from and again power to pump it somewhere else and more environmental degradation from the treatment process ?

Perfect is the enemy of the good  .
Not one of us has zero impact. All homoidiotics on this planet have an environment impact to some degree even your friends living a communal hunter gatherer lifestyle in the rain forest.
   
Most of us on here work to sway understanding in those around us and take some responsibility for our lifestyles . Better to celebrate our collective efforts as a net positive than judge and find us all wanting by your standards.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 16, 2020, 01:17:03 PM »
One oil major bites one (of many) bullets heading towards the oil majors.

But net-zero carbon target for 2050 won't cut it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/15/bp-expects-covid-19-to-have-enduring-impact-on-global-economy
BP expects to take $17.5bn hit due to coronavirus writedown

company says it may be forced to leave some of its fossil fuel discoveries in the ground

Quote
BP’s boss, Bernard Looney, said the company had “reset” its oil forecasts to reflect the lasting impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy and the likelihood of “greater efforts to ‘build back better’ towards a Paris-consistent world” in the aftermath of the pandemic.

BP expects Brent crude oil to average about $55 a barrel between 2021 and 2050, and $2.90 per million British thermal units for Henry Hub gas, the benchmark for natural gas. The forecasts are 27% and 31% lower respectively than the average prices used in its latest annual report. Brent crude is trading at $38 a barrel.

The reset is likely to accelerate BP’s plans to end its contribution to the climate crisis by 2050, which BP’s incoming chief executive revealed earlier this year. Looney is expected to set out detailed plans for BP to reduce its carbon emissions to net zero in September this year.

The new chief executive, who took the helm of the oil firm in February, told the Guardian last month that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic had deepened his commitment to shrinking the oil giant’s carbon footprint to zero.

He said he was “more convinced than ever” that BP must move towards a net-zero carbon target for 2050, set out earlier this year, by spending less on oil and gas and more on low-carbon energy sources.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 15, 2020, 12:05:57 PM »
nanning:
Can you tell us how, if you are so impoverished, you are able to enjoy an online presence?

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 14, 2020, 10:08:29 PM »
Re discussion on fuel efficiency for transport under coal thread .
From the EPA fueleconomy web site.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

EVs are 60% to 73% efficient, depending upon drive cycle. However, if the energy recaptured from regenerative braking is counted (i.e., recounted when it is re-used), EVs are 77% to 100% efficient.

Only about 12%–30% of the energy from the fuel you put in a conventional vehicle is used to move it down the road, depending on the drive cycle.

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: June 13, 2020, 10:13:34 AM »
Cars with large batteries (n*daily commute) will become the buffer to reduce the intermittency problem of renewables so that grid side storage will be small.

To replace petrol and diesel, UK electricity production will have to triple, but only 1/3 will be demand-right-now, 2/3 will be topping up the batteries when the electricity is available. The 1/3 demand will be mostly covered by the increased production from renewables with minimal backup or storage.

That's without cars supporting the grid.

The limitation will be the grid and local networks which can't accommodate anywhere close to 3x transmission, so I expect much more local production, e.g.  solar on the office / factory roof to the carpark


20
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 08, 2020, 09:35:16 PM »
More detail can be found here.
https://electrek.co/2020/04/24/tesla-paten-electrode-million-mile-battery/

There have been leaks about other advances and hints that tesla intends to build its own battery production lines.
  We are waiting on the postponed battery day for information on Tesla's plans.

21
Jackson interviews Salvador at FAIR: Food in the USA is a plantation economy

"It actually is a logical thing for most farmers to plow under their food"

"this issue of food waste is a serious problem. And it is not exclusively on farmers. It’s an issue of the structure of the system."

"a channel, a sector, in the food system, which is called food service. And it operates almost invisibly to the majority of us. But if you do see it, you see it in service entries and back alleys, "

"“the structure of agriculture”—is a system that looks very much like a social hierarchy that many of us will remember from grade school, where we had slaves at the bottom of the pyramid and the pharaoh or king up at the top of the pyramid, fewer and fewer people benefiting as you go up the pyramid. In agriculture, we still have pretty much that system."

"emancipation never really came to agriculture, in the sense that we still don’t pay the full value of the labor that’s required to make the entire system work."

" we recently have been forced to recognize how essential these workers are, by actually giving them that official designation. “Essential” means, “Without you, the whole thing doesn’t work.”"

"we would like to compel them to go to work so that the rest of us could have the comfort of still ordering in our T-bone steaks and what have you. But we don’t pay these people in a way that reflects how essential they are. "

" they do work that no one in this country is willing to do. "

"under high periods of unemployment, like the one that we’re going into right now, you would think that unemployed people would seek whatever job is available to them. So there is a labor shortage in agriculture to do all of the field labor and packing, processing that I just described. And Americans are not doing that work."

"There’s a demand for agricultural labor. We’re not filling in it domestically, so we bring in people internationally, migrants, to do this work for us. And we exploit them, because we don’t pay them the fair value of their labor. So that’s the structure of our food system. It’s very much modeled on antebellum plantation economics."

"it’s another category of person that has been designated “essential, but expendable,” you might say."

"they don’t see the workers as people who have the same needs as they and everybody else in this country do, to have such things as, for instance, occupational safety standards applied to their workplace, to have health benefits, to have retirement benefits, to earn enough to have dignified livelihood, meaning you can afford decent housing, you can afford to feed yourself and your family."

"We actually see them as “inputs” ...  labor is seen as an input. And the way that you try to fatten up your profits is to cut the cost of your inputs, so that you get greater margin."

"What farmers actually need is fair prices for what they produce, which, by and large, they don’t get right now. They don’t exist in a competitive environment, and they don’t have the leverage where they can actually negotiate fair prices for them. But that’s actually what they need. If they could negotiate fair prices, they could afford to have it in their economy to pay all of their costs. But that’s not the situation that we have right now."

"the highly concentrated agribusiness sector, attempting to exploit the moment to cut as many costs as possible, and one of those costs is the cost of farm labor. And they’re cravenly taking advantage of the fact that, for all the reasons that I just described, these are people that are politically invisible; they don’t have muscle. Many of them are domestic guest workers in the country; they signed paperwork that says they’re only here to work in fields, that’s all, and when they’re done, they return home. Or else they’re not documented, and so what are they going to do when they’re exploited? Sue? They have no standing, and so that’s being cravenly exploited."

“If a Worker Is Essential, They Can’t Be Illegal.”

" the farmers that are doing well right now are the so-called small-scale family farmers. These are folks that produce in volumes, and who redistribute in local and regional networks, where they can respond very quickly, to where the schools are now becoming redistribution points for SNAP, for instance, or for school food that needs to be picked up by students that otherwise might not have access to that food, because they’re not coming to school every day, and so on. Or through farmers markets, another very important redistribution method which is very fungible. So we’re learning that that’s actually what works; we need to invest more in these kinds of highly distributed systems, and less in the highly concentrated systems."

"We need to reform immigration policy to recognize the economic value and the human rights that we need to accord to everyone that’s making us wealthy and keeping us well-fed in this country. We need to reform labor standards so that it’s safe for people that are working in the fields, and it looks like they’re living in the 21st century, and not back in the 19th century or the 18th century."

"every fiscal conservative is hiding their copy of Ayn Rand and is lining up for benefits from the nanny state. "

"They’re interested in maintaining share value more than they’re interested in preserving the health of their workers. They put out press releases saying that they value nothing more than the health of their workers, but they’re forcing them to work under highly unsafe conditions"

"We know how to stave further spread, but they’re actually not willing to adopt the recommendations that come from CDC, specifically, because it would slow their production line; it would slow their volume. Well, this is happening to them anyway, which is why they’re reacting in a way that demonstrates plutocracy in action: They’ve told the president what to do, and the president responded by saying, through an executive order, that these plants must remain open, implicitly that workers are compelled to show up to work against their health interests."

https://fair.org/home/our-food-system-is-very-much-modeled-on-plantation-economics/

sidd

22
Thanks for giving arguments against the points instead of just calling Zerohedge names, Steve.
The article projects we won’t get Unemployment beck down to 5% until 2026. Do you think that is overly pessimistic too?

I don't know, but I think it may be plausible.  The economy has instantly shed a large proportion of non-essential jobs (which is bad) and also a lot of non-essential economic activity and carbon emissions (which is good).

What I think needs to happen (and has suddenly become politically feasible) is institution of a universal basic income.  Rather than have vast numbers of people being forced to take bullshit jobs to earn a paycheck, provide everyone with a basic income and stop creating bullshit work.  In the short-term, paying for this with deficits/quantitative easing is not a problem.  Longer-term, money will need to come out of concentrated wealth and those with exorbitant incomes.  That will be a challenging political battle.

23
Of course many people can’t afford organic and would get in trouble with the city or neighborhood if the let the lawns go “natural”.

24
From zerohedge, and pushes gold, but makes some good points:

Zerohedge is an awful source, peddling conspiracy theories, doom and gloom predictions.  It's filled with click-bait garbage.

Whoever wrote this failed Econ 101.  A nation's national debt is a complex issue, but when that debt is in the nation's own currency, options for managing it are easier to manage than most realize.

Japan is considered a very strong (though slow-growth) economy.  It has a debt-to-gdp ratio of about 200%.  It's not an unmanageable problem, it's definitely not a crisis.

Yes, a deep recession is already present.  The recovery may well be slow.  It's true that deflation is a profoundly destructive process.  But the Federal Reserve has literally infinite ability to reverse deflation.  The Great Depression dragged on because economists then didn't understand the importance of the money supply.  Since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has learned to be aggressive in fighting deflation.  Quantitative easing was initially controversial, but 4 trillion of that easing during that recession did not create the feared  hyper-inflation, it barely avoided deflation.  QE now could increase that 4 trillion to several multiples of that amount.  This Federal Reserve balance sheet represents a *negative* debt, and in macro-economic terms, should be taken as effectively reducing the nominal national debt.

The zerohedge article is click-bait nonsense.  It's a terrible source for a discussion forum.


25
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 09, 2020, 12:52:49 AM »
The oil and gas rig count in the US is now at its lowest since 1940!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Gas-Rigs-Fall-Below-400-For-The-First-Time-Since-1940.html

Quote
U.S. Oil, Gas Rigs Fall Below 400 For The First Time Since 1940
By Julianne Geiger - May 08, 2020

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil and gas rigs in the US fell again this week by 34, falling to 374, with the total oil and gas rigs sitting at 614 fewer than this time last year as U.S. drillers scurry to keep their heads above water amid strict stay-at-home orders that caused oil demand to plummet at alarming rates—and oil prices along with it.

It is the fewest number of active rigs since Baker Hughes started to keep in 1940.

Quote
The EIA’s estimate for the week is that oil production in the United States fell to 11.9 million barrels of oil per day on average for week ending May 1, which is 1.2 million bpd off the all-time high and a substantial 300,000 bpd lower than the week prior. It is the fifth straight weekly production decline. It is the first sub-12 million bpd rate in the United States since February 2019.

26
"Sokath, his eyes opened"

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 01, 2020, 01:16:40 AM »
For the first time (month), the share of solar PV in the NL electricity mix exceeded 10%. The percentages shown are for April.

Shows how quickly things have changed compared to Aprils 2014 & 2015.

Jeff Gibbs, are you out there ?!

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 29, 2020, 04:01:46 PM »
Turns out letting “efficient” monopolies control our food supply was a terrible idea.

Quote
“If you pull out one little thing in that specialized, centralized, consolidated chain, then everything crashes,” said Mary Hendrickson, a rural sociology professor at University of Missouri. “Now we have an animal welfare catastrophe, an environmental catastrophe, a farmer catastrophe, and a worker catastrophe altogether, and we can trace a lot of this back to the pursuit of efficiency.”

Link >> https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/04/28/why-are-farmers-destroying-food-while-grocery-stores-are-empty/

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 27, 2020, 03:47:06 PM »
Debate it in the Trump thread. This has hardly anything to do with Lessons from COVID-19:

The most important lesson for anyone concerned about climate change to learn is this:

Our actions, or lack thereof, dictate the consequences.

That the leader of the United States consistently downplayed the threat and fed misinformation to the masses directly caused the unnecessary death of an uncountable number of people. If the reaction fo Trump would have been science-based, like the one in Germany and South Korea, the number of fatalities and the social cost of the measures taken would've been a heck of a lot less.

Anyone that has been following the climate change debate for any reasonable amount of time can see the same thing happening there. Leaders deceiving themselves and others who then take the wrong actions regarding climate change and that will result in unnecessary death and destruction. With climate change the process takes decades. With coronavirus months but the dependence on or response is the same.

Misinformation. Who would have thought that lying had consequences?

Quote
A real lesson is learned when one understands the cause of a problem. Only then can the problem be solved.

If only the world was so simple. The truth is that most abstractions we can imagine have multiple causes, depending on the analyst's point of view.

Quote
Let me repeat from my OP what in my view is the cause of the problem:

And you are way off the science.

Quote
1. the origin of the virus, two possibilities:

The origin of the virus is the same as 100 years ago and the same as 100 years before that and uncountable times in between. Novel viruses emerge all the time. Sometimes they form pandemics. Sometimes they form local epidemics. Most times they never successfully reproduce at all.

Back when humans were all "in tune" with nature and singing kumbaya to the one true God, the sun, virus and epidemics existed. I doubt planetary human pandemics existed.   

Quote
2. the spreading of the virus - caused by globalised markets and mass tourism, both caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

YOu call that on-topic but proof that the President of the US sabotaged the response with lies is off topic?

What you posted is propaganda, not science.

Quote
3. the impact of the virus - massive air pollution, an adulterated food supply full of addictive substances, and overmedication have reduced general population health to the point that a virus can have a massive impact. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

Sure the world is halfway there to idiocracy, but to blame it all on wealth concentration is shortsighted and as offtopic as Trump.

Quote
4. the response to the virus -

I'm not sure how can we talk about the response to the virus without talking about the President of the US. He literally incited people to riot against stay at home orders.


Quote
5. the exploitation of the virus
-

How can we talk exploitation without talking Trump, who exploits shamelessly?

Quote
So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. This is the problem. If enough people understand that this is the problem and how it works, the solution becomes self-evident: taking away the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. The best way to do this, is to put a cap on how much an individual is allowed to own, and then enforce it legally, culturally and socially.

All I see is an otherwise smart man basing an epidemic response on an abstract concept.


Quote
The Trump stuff would fall under 4), but it's well-established that this guy is a fake populist clown who expanded the swamp. I understand the desire to remove him from the White House, and that it's very difficult to do via elections because the Democratic Party has incapacitated itself due to its loyalty to concentrated wealth (see that Antoinette Pelosi ad?), but COVID-gate will fail just as hard as Russiagate and Ukrainegate.

Russiagate and Ukraine gate didn't fail. Only the blind fail to see that Trump is a traitor and a criminal who works with dictators like Putin to enrich themselves. Republicans and Democrats both know deep inside they are working with a criminal traitor.


Quote
If you have an absolute need to neurotically repeat how horrible Trump is every single day (which is what he wants you to do), please do it in the Trump thread.


He has an operational impact on the virus response. YOU are helping him by downplaying his impact exactly like you downplay Russia gate.  His downplaying of the threat of C19 is similar to his downplaying of climate change.


People do not act because they believe it was a hoax. Most people will not read the Mueller report like they won't read the IPCC or the WHO's recommendations.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: April 22, 2020, 08:05:57 PM »
Sweden has gone coal free, two years earlier than planned.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/22/sweden-exits-coal-two-years-early/

Quote
Sweden exits coal two years early

The Nordic nation is now the third European country to have waved goodbye to coal for power generation. Another 11 European states have made plans to follow suit over the next decade.
April 22, 2020 Marian Willuhn

Sweden has joined Europe’s scramble to decommission coal. Power utility Stockholm Exergi has announced the permanent closure of coal-fired co-generation plant KVV6, in Hjorthagen, eastern Stockholm.

The Scandinavian country had planned to rid itself of coal by 2022 but appears to have decommissioned its facilities two years early.

31
It's like reading the script for the King's Speech


32
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: April 20, 2020, 04:41:06 PM »
Japan's megabanks, taking heat for climate inaction, vow not to finance new coal plants

TOKYO - Japan's megabanks have announced commitments, of varying degrees, to stop financing new coal power projects as global pressure ramps up on the world's third largest economy for stronger climate action.

Mizuho Financial Group, the second-largest lender, unveiled its pledges last Wednesday (April 15), followed by the third-largest Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMBC) one day later.

They join Japan's largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), which decided last year that it will stop providing new investments and loans to coal power plants in principle, and is expected to announce tighter policy revisions in this regard within the next month

For details see:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japans-megabanks-taking-heat-for-climate-inaction-vow-not-to-finance-new-coal-plants

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 19, 2020, 06:25:18 AM »
Nobel at rollingstone on fracking waste: a gift that keeps on giving

"Oil fields across the country — from the Bakken in North Dakota to the Permian in Texas — have been found to produce brine that is highly radioactive"

"Tanks, filters, pumps, pipes, hoses, and trucks that brine touches can all become contaminated, with the radium building up into hardened “scale,” concentrating to as high as 400,000 picocuries per gram."

"Radium in its brine can average around 9,300 picocuries per liter, but has been recorded as high as 28,500. “If I had a beaker of that on my desk and accidentally dropped it on the floor, they would shut the place down,” says Yuri Gorby, a microbiologist who spent 15 years studying radioactivity with the Department of Energy. “And if I dumped it down the sink, I could go to jail.” "

“Legislators have laid out a careful set of exemptions that allow this industry to exist,”

"thanks to a single exemption the industry received from the EPA in 1980, the streams of waste generated at oil-and-gas wells — all of which could be radioactive and hazardous to humans — are not required to be handled as hazardous waste."

" the EPA determined that in order for oil-and-gas to flourish, its hazardous waste should not be defined as hazardous."

"The levels of radium in Louisiana oil pipes had registered as much as 20,000 times the limits set by the EPA for topsoil at uranium-mill waste sites. Templet found that workers who were cleaning oil-field piping were being coated in radioactive dust and breathing it in. One man they tested had radioactivity all over his clothes, his car, his front steps, and even on his newborn baby ... Pipes still laden with radioactivity were donated by the industry and reused to build community playgrounds. Templet sent inspectors with Geiger counters across southern Louisiana. One witnessed a kid sitting on a fence made from piping so radioactive they were set to receive a full year’s radiation dose in an hour."

"In Ohio, laws that enabled local communities to enforce zoning of oil-and-gas activities were systematically stripped during the 2000s and 2010s. Language snuck into one 2001 Ohio budget bill exempted the oil-and-gas industry from having to disclose safety information to fire departments and first responders. “A truck carrying brine for injection is the worst of the worst,” says Caggiano. “And it is going through your freeways, through your neighborhoods, through your streets, past your homes, past your schools, and the drivers are not trained in how to handle hazardous waste and don’t have to have a single piece of paper telling a fire chief like me what the hell they are carrying — it scares the fuck out of me.” "

"Neither Veolia nor Antero replied to questions on whether they were testing the steam for radioactivity. When asked if the agency was monitoring for such things, West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection official Casey Korbini said, “The WVDEP permits are in accordance with federal and state air-quality statutes, and radionuclides are not a regulated pollutant under these statutes.” He added, “This does not mean that radionuclides are prohibited; they are simply not regulated.” "

"sending solid oil-and-gas waste like drill cuttings to a low-level radioactive-waste facility could mean as much as a 100-fold increase in cost, so there’s an incentive for companies to get the waste into a regional landfill."

"The foul discharge of water passing through Westmoreland, called “leachate,” flowed downhill through a sewer pipe and into the Belle Vernon sewage-treatment plant, where superintendent Guy Kruppa says it was killing the microbes needed to digest the sewage. His facility has no ability to remove the radioactivity, he says. This means, as long as his plant was receiving the contaminated leachate, insufficiently treated sewage and radioactivity was being spewed into the Monongahela River, which runs through downtown Pittsburgh."

" “What this place is, essentially, is a permit to pollute,” says Kruppa. “It’s a free pass to go ahead and dump it in the river, because we don’t test for that stuff, we don’t have to. It’s a loophole. They found a way to take waste that no one else will take to the landfill and get rid of it in liquid form. Essentially, we are the asshole of the fracking industry.” "

 “‘What have you done to go out and find all the radioactive waste you have dumped all over the United States for the past 120 years?’ And the answer is nothing.”

“There is a massive liability that has been lying silently below the surface for all these years,”

"  “The critical component of the profit margin for these companies is that they can get rid of the waste so cheaply,” says Auch of FracTracker Alliance. “If they ever had to pay fair-market value, they wouldn’t be able to exist.” "

 “They’ve known for 110 years, but they haven’t done anything about it,”

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/oil-gas-fracking-radioactive-investigation-937389/

I run around that part of the country a very great deal. They spray it on the roads, and i surely have breathed the dust countless times. And i dont even live around there.

sidd

34
Please. I have a nice garden. The thought of feeding my family from it is preposterous. My early greens and lettuce are starting to come in nicely. We had frost the other night. Haven't even put out any summer vegetables. "Plant a garden" is not a viable answer.

35
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: April 17, 2020, 07:01:25 PM »
The Carbon We Can’t Afford to Lose

We have protected areas for wildlife; we need to protect ecosystems whose death could release massive amounts of CO2 as well

...

But in the face of today’s climate crisis, we must expand our vision of protection even further. We need to start thinking about protected areas as refuges not just for wildlife, but for carbon.

This mental shift would be subtle but profound. It would mean protecting areas that we may not have previously identified as priorities. And, as my co-authors and I found in a new paper for Nature Climate Change, it is necessary if we want to solve the climate crisis.

In addition to a rapid transition towards renewable energy, protecting carbon-rich ecosystems is one of the most effective ways we can fight climate change. For hundreds and even thousands of years, these places have absorbed carbon from the atmosphere and stored it indefinitely within trees and soil. In the process, they have created a global system of living carbon reserves.

...

Our team set out to understand the potential cost of losing these reserves. We wanted to know the extent to which human activity threatened these ecosystems, how much carbon they could potentially release and how much of that carbon we could reabsorb before 2050—when we must reach zero net emissions to minimize the impact of climate change.

What we came up with was a list of places around the world that contain “irrecoverable carbon”—carbon that, if released, we could not recover within the next three decades.

Irrecoverable carbon exists in areas that are already protected, in areas that are somewhat protected and in areas that we wouldn’t otherwise prioritize for protection. Some of them face immediate pressure from agricultural and logging interests. Others will come under threat in the coming decades.

In total, they contain more than 260 gigatons of irrecoverable carbon, equivalent to 26 times last year’s fossil fuel emissions. In other words, the destruction of these ecosystems would make our long-term climate goals effectively impossible. 

That is why we must immediately act to protect living carbon reserves, especially in the three areas with the greatest concentration of irrecoverable carbon: tropical peatlands, mangroves and old-growth forests.

and more on:
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-carbon-we-cant-afford-to-lose/

Paper can be accessed via link above.

36
The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 10, 2020, 03:34:52 PM »
Very few posters here are neutral.  Neven was a passionate Bernie supporter, and made it known.  He has done a good job here, but he was not neutral.

Quite right, I was far from neutral. Blumenkraft will monitor and moderate the Off-topic category, and I'm quite confident he will do a good job. I hope the job will help him shape his views, as it did mine. Be cause will help out as well, because it's the most difficult category to moderate. Oren will take care of the Cryosphere section, and kassy will keep an eye on the AGW in general category.

I would feel enlightened if you stay as admin in the background to slap some moderators hands if needed. :)

I will stay admin and support the moderators wherever I can.

That's how things stand right now. I will start to implement things later today.

37
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 31, 2020, 08:07:44 PM »
Jetstream at 180˚ over the equator. At 90˚east, it's also way too far south.

We keep having small circles spinning over the Pacific and Northern America.

Over the Arctic, it behaves as if there was no Arctic anymore.

At least the eastward one over Europe and the one over Africa are about to dissolve.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: March 24, 2020, 05:50:35 PM »
Greta and Svante possibly have Corona.

Quote
The last two weeks I’ve stayed inside. When I returned from my trip around Central Europe I isolated myself (in a borrowed apartment away from my mother and sister) since the number of cases of COVID-19 (in Germany for instance) were similar to Italy in the beginning. Around ten days ago I started feeling some symptoms, exactly the same time as my father - who traveled with me from Brussels. I was feeling tired, had shivers, a sore throat and coughed. My dad experienced the same symptoms, but much more intense and with a fever.
In Sweden you can not test yourself for COVID-19 unless you’re in need of emergent medical treatment. Everyone feeling ill are told to stay at home and isolate themselves.
I have therefore not been tested for COVID-19, but it’s extremely likely that I’ve had it, given the combined symptoms and circumstances.

Now I’ve basically recovered, but - AND THIS IS THE BOTTOM LINE: I almost didn’t feel ill. My last cold was much worse than this! Had it not been for someone else having the virus simultainously I might not even have suspected anything. Then I would just have thought I was feeling unusually tired with a bit of a cough.
And this it what makes it so much more dangerous. Many (especially young people) might not notice any symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms. Then they don’t know they have the virus and can pass it on to people in risk groups.
We who don’t belong to a risk group have an enormous responsibility, our actions can be the difference between life and death for many others.

Please keep that in mind, follow the advice from experts and your local authorities and #StayAtHome to slow the spread of the virus. And remember to always take care of each other and help those in need.
#COVID #flattenthecurve" - Greta Thunberg


https://www.instagram.com/p/B-HwpQkJqrc/

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: March 21, 2020, 09:13:25 AM »
TIL

Legendary scientist Marie Curie’s tomb in the Panthéon in Paris. Her tomb is lined with an inch thick of lead as radiation protection for the public. Her remains are radioactive to this day.


40
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 20, 2020, 07:08:04 PM »
CountourGlobal, a US company that builds and operates powerplants overseas, is cancelling a coal-fired power plant under construction in Kosovo.  They have announced that they'll no longer build or acquire coal fired power plants.

https://balkaninsight.com/2020/03/17/construction-of-coal-fired-power-plant-in-kosovo-halted/

Quote
Construction of Coal-Fired Power Plant in Kosovo Halted
Xhorxhina Bami and Eve-anne Travers

March 17, 2020

Environmental campaigners welcomed a decision by US company ContourGlobal to halt construction of a new coal-fired power plant in Kosovo.

US power generation company ContourGlobal has halted plans to build the 500-megawatt coal-fired Kosova e Re (New Kosovo) power plant, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Kosovo had a 1.3 billion euro contract with ContourGlobal to build the plant, which would have satisfied around half of the electricity demand in a country that suffers from power shortages.

Quote
With Kurti now in office as prime minister, ContourGlobal announced it was halting construction of the plant “as a result of the political situation in Kosovo”.

It also said that the US company, which operates over 100 power plants in Europe, Latin America and Africa, “will not develop or acquire coal power plants in the future”.

Concerns had been raised in Kosovo that the environmental impact of building the new coal-fired power plant was too high.

The project had met with fierce resistance from the Kosovo Civil Society Consortium for Sustainable Development, KOSID, an alliance of NGOs including BIRN Kosovo.

Their campaign led to the World Bank withdrawing its support for the plant in October 2018.

Quote
Kosovo is currently working on building a 170-million-euro wind farm, which has raised hopes of increasing the production of renewable energy in the country.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 17, 2020, 02:41:48 PM »
Fossil fuels enjoy large built-in inertia in the energy system. That's why it's not sufficient to generate a little bit cheaper electricity by wind or solar compared to coal or oil or gas. It has to be significantly cheaper to have an effect on emissions.

If we started from scratch today, I suppose nobody would suggest the massive upfront infrastructure investments needed to mine, transport, store and burn coal or oil. Unfortunately for decarbonization these things do exist giving FFs huge head-start against renewables. Power grids radiate from massive power plants which are located to maximize efficient fossil fuel logistics. The energy economy is designed to be load-following instead of generation-following. etc.

That's why we have absurd discussions about not having enough EV chargers which would enable to handle fuel logistics by copper wire instead of transportation by pipeline, tanker vessel, refinery, truck and the service station.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2020, 03:06:11 AM »
How Tesla Sets Itself Apart
Harvard Business Review .

https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-tesla-sets-itself-apart
Quote
In my view, the traditional automakers are ill prepared to compete in today’s software-centered world. Unlike nimble Tesla, they are big, bureaucratic, slow to respond to customers, dependent on providing customer financing for unit sales growth, and culturally different from a software company.

And they know it. Last fall, the chairman of Volkswagen — still reeling from its auto-emission scandal — declared Tesla a “serious competitor.” The biggest challenge VW and other leading automakers face is that they lack the expertise required to compete in the age of the software car.  Tesla and its flamboyant, and sometimes erratic, innovator Elon Musk have turned the more than a century old industry upside down in a mere 16 years.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 05, 2020, 02:01:22 PM »
Is the U.S. Fracking Boom Based on Fraud?

...

Sounding the Alarm
Bethany McLean was the first reporter to question whether Enron was a financially sound company in a 2001 article for Fortune magazine. McLean went on to co-author the book The Smartest Guys in the Room, which documented the fall of Enron due to its fraudulent practices, including the ones Fastow engineered.

In 2018, McLean also published the book Saudi America, which highlighted many of the financial challenges the fracking industry has faced. In a recent interview for Texas Monthly's podcast Boomtown, McLean explained one of the very accepted and blatantly misleading practices of the fracking industry:

“I’d raise a couple of points. One is that companies have long hyped these break-even numbers. They say we can break even at $25 a barrel, we can break even at $20 a barrel. And then you look at their consolidated financial statements and they are losing money. And so something is going wrong … the people called it to me [sic] … corporate math or investor economics. So they were trying to put together these investor pitch decks that would show investors a set of economics that weren’t real. So they would show you that they could break even on a well at $25 barrel of oil but then yet you’d go to the corporate financial statements and they were losing money.”

Is that a loophole? Where you can openly misrepresent to investors the financial reality of your business? Or is it fraud?

As more and more players in the fracking industry run out of options and file for bankruptcy, investors are beginning to ask questions about why all the money is gone.

...


https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/03/05/us-shale-fracking-boom-fraud-alta-mesa-enron

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 05, 2020, 07:40:26 AM »
I gave links .

Tesla model 3 is the top selling electric car world wide by a huge margin .
It is acknowledge by the leading car company's COE's that they are struggling to catch Tesla's lead.
They know if they do not compete with Tesla their firms will be history. Before Tesla manufactures  made odd looking electric cars that did not appeal to the mainstream. Legacy auto  now have to make better electric cars than their gas models or die. 
Tesla is leading the charge to electric transport and pulling all others up  behind them. 
Wait a few months and the Y will eclipse the 3's impact.
Tesla has signaled the death knell of oil based personal land transport.

Hornsdale Power Reserve
For showing how one big battery could revolutionize renewable energy
The Hornsdale power reserve has basically made all fossil fuel peaker plants obsolete.
When it was first proposed many said it was impossible . It paid for itself in first year and a half of operation. Proof of concept you can use battery backup to solar and wind on a commercial scale. It also works better than fossil fuel generation at grid modulation and is cheaper to run.

I don't think you understand the significance of Tesla and  Elon Musk.   Musk will be remembered as one of the greatest minds  of human history long after we are all long forgotten dust.

As for Terry
He adds little to the forum of value .
If we went though he comments on the Telsa thread you would find he has been consistently wrong repeating what is nothing but FUD produced by those who would benefit by delaying or destroying Tesla..  I view him with the same contempt I hold for the useful idiots who repeat Climate Denial FUD. His form of human stupidity  is holding us back from resolving one of the biggest threats humanity has faced since we first fell out of trees in Africa.

As for you.
What you suggest on here  has been tried before  it was called Year Zero.
It might seem OK to you on an intellectual level .
To bring it about will result in the same as happened  last time.
Untold unmitigated  Horror.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 04, 2020, 07:40:09 PM »
Nonsense arguments from Terry .
How totally surprising /s/
We  either transition away from fossil fuels or we fuck this planet for our civilization.
We do not have the political will to do so immediately.
So we have to except a slow change over time.
Only a gibbering loon would attack Tesla because it has not been perfect when Tesla has measurably  had  more effect to speed this transition than almost any other company on this smegging planet .

Tesla's impact.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/960121/sales-of-all-electric-vehicles-worldwide-by-model/
https://mip.pmi.org/hornsdale-power-reserve

By gibbering loon I mean a climate change denier .

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 02, 2020, 06:55:53 PM »
The headline says it all.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Drillers-Need-A-Miracle-To-Keep-Production-From-Falling.html

Quote
Shale Drillers Need A Miracle To Keep Production From Falling
By Irina Slav - Mar 01, 2020

With West Texas Intermediate falling below $45 a barrel after the latest burst in coronavirus panic, U.S. shale oil and gas producers are feeling growing heat. Except for the Permian, where production of both oil and gas is still growing, the U.S. shale patch is retrenching. And the Permian may soon follow suit.

Quote
This wasn’t all, either. According to Le Peuch, unless the oilfield service sector comes up with new extraction technology that works at lower than current costs, U.S. shale oil production will not return to growth at all, but plateau.

Quote
The situation in gas is even worse. As the Enverus report notes, the breakeven cost for gas production in the Denver-Julesburg Basin and the Bakken are now higher than the Henry Hub benchmark and quite a bit higher, at that. Henry Hub futures prices are currently below $2 per million British thermal units until July, when the futures price tops $2 per mmBtu. The breakeven for producers in the Rockies and the Bakken, on the other hand, is more than $3 per mmBtu.

While for oil the biggest problem is the slump in demand in China and the fear of slumping demand elsewhere as the coronavirus conquers new territory, for gas the problem is a persistent overhang in inventories. To make matters worse, the coronavirus fallout is also affecting demand for gas.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 23, 2020, 07:41:08 PM »
Then perhaps we should revisit lithium mining from

Most lithium comes from the small island of the coast of here called Australia were the poor mistreated peasants  only get about $120,000AU a week year to dig big holes in remote places.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_lithium_production
http://iminco.net/mining-job-salaries-how-much-can-you-earn-mining-careers/
South america and the middle east are just distractions for the easily confused  by fossil fuel industry PR FUD.   
FWIW they don't mine it in south America they pump up brine underlying  vast sterile salt pans.
No complex life lives in such inhospitable places .
In regions were rainfall is measured in mm a year and some places recording zero rain for decades it is hardly the environmental catastrophe you would think from some comments.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 17, 2020, 04:32:35 PM »
I guess i have to call them tomorrow!

The machine is answering the phone. I tried it several times, no person was reachable.

So i wrote an email. I wrote they lost my vote for being that reactionary. Very formal, not too lengthy.

However, my vote goes to Die Linke anyway. ;)
I suspect they are surprised at the size of the media storm they have created.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 17, 2020, 12:29:41 PM »
A teardown of Model 3 by the Japanese
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2

Some juicy bits:

Quote
But when it comes to electronics technology, Elon Musk's scrappy company is far ahead of the industry giants.
...
One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
...
That means Tesla beat its rivals by six years.

And the meat:

Quote
So big automakers apparently feel obliged to continue using complicated webs of dozens of ECUs, while we only found a few in the Model 3. Put another way, the supply chains that have helped today's auto giants grow are now beginning to hamper their ability to innovate.

Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available.

Our teardown underscored this in another way as well.

Most parts inside the Model 3 do not bear the name of a supplier. Instead, many have the Tesla logo, including the substrates inside the ECUs. This suggests the company maintains tight control over the development of almost all key technologies in the car.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: February 15, 2020, 01:37:50 PM »
Quote
Garnalenvissers hebben het aantal uren dat zij in beschermde natuurgebieden mochten vissen in zowel 2017 als 2018 fors overschreden, meldt de NOS zaterdag op basis van verkregen documenten. Er zouden geen straffen zijn uitgedeeld aan de vissers.

Het gaat om de Waddenzee en Noordzeekustzone, waar een limiet van 130.000 uur geldt. In beide jaren zou er meer dan 200.000 uur gewerkt zijn. Door capaciteitsproblemen bij de Nederlandse Voedsel en Warenautoriteit (NVWA) bleven de vissers echter onbestraft.

Drie personen zouden verantwoordelijk zijn voor de controles van ruim tweehonderd schepen. Technische middelen waarmee vissers zichzelf kunnen controleren, blijken al vijf jaar niet goed te werken.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6031003/beschermde-nederlandse-natuurgebieden-fors-overbevist-boetes-blijven-uit.html

This is how our environmental protection works...

There is a limit of 130k hours of fishing for two coastal zones. In 2017 and 2018 both zones saw more then 200k hours of work (shrimp fishing).

No penalties were handed out because only 3 persons have to check in the 200 ships.
The technical aids the fishermen can use to control themselves don´t work properly.

So this is yet another example were the economic needs win over environmental concerns. This is basically normal which is also why we ended with the agricultural sector we have now.

Basically the only thing you need is constant location data which ships have anyway?

So the rules are simple. Location on. Timing starts from you going into the zone.
If the location beacon inexplicably fails you return to port to fix it.
Ignoring this rule should lead to an automatic one or two month grounding. No sailing no fishing.


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