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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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The rest / Re: Good music
« on: Today at 08:47:29 AM »
Rest in peace, Kenny Rogers. <3

Kenny Rogers - The Gambler

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 07:21:53 PM »
Chris Martenson says make your own, &@#%, with a sewing machine.
I have no machine and don’t know how to sew.

Making high-quality masks doesn't require a sewing machine, nor even needle and thread.  This shows how to make a mask using fairly common materials;

How To Make A No Sew DIY N95 Type Protective Face Mask

I'm quite impressed by the makeshift engineering shown here.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 02:07:09 AM »
I bumped into this site that measures provides estimated dates for hospitals being overwhelmed by CV.

I did a check, it seems to be good so.....

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:42:00 AM »
S E A   R E S E A R C H   S O C I E T Y ' S   A P P E A L   T O
T H E  G O V E R N M E N T S  W O R L D - W I D E  :


Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are computer models of the world's atmosphere based on observations and assumptions if there are no direct information available. World emissions shutdowns are a novel opportunity to learn about how climate system responds under different circumstances that cannot be normally experimentally checked. It is vitally important for the world's governments not to shut down meteorological measurements. Indeed, efforts must increase to use opportunity to test and search regional responses of the highly unusual situation. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and national meteorological organisations must quickly come up with new research proposals to gain every possible bit of information as this helps to understand how world's climate will respond as the world moves towards ZERO emissions. It is a tremendous tragedy if this unique opportunity to find more about how our atmosphere operates is lost. We do not foresee many situations like this rising when large world regions turn their lights off one after another. Modelling SO2, N2O, O3, CFC, CO2, CH4, CO shut downs.

Sponsors, please look at serious proposals to make research offers right now!
Let's make something positive happen out of this coronavirus calamity.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 19, 2020, 10:11:37 AM »
Sam, this analysis seems to be logical and therefore extremely worrying in the short term.

I’d be really interested in what you think about the current situation in China. It  seems to be returning to some form of normality without any significant degree of herd immunity based on a relatively low number of reported infections in a total population of 1.3 Billion.

Is it simply rigorous contract tracking, Singapore style, on a grand scale or something more opaque?

My information on what is happening inside China is quite limited. I cannot read Chinese, so I have to rely on information that is mostly in English, with a smattering of other languages. A lot that I have read is from Chinese sources. However, I cannot guage either the veracity, accuracy or completeness of much of that. Neither can I judge what, if any, biases they may contain.

From my years in industry and management, the story that I think I see goes something like this (take this with a huge dose of skeptical analysis - I am not expert in any way here):

The Chinese have nearly mopped up the last of the infection chains inside the country. They continue to exercise intense internal controls with checkpoints, isolated and compartmentalized cities, blocks within cities, apartment buildings ...  They continue to use extensive testing. And those who were infected continue to be treated, monitored, isolated and controlled until they are assuredly clear of infection.

They have sanitized everything in areas with infections. Now, their focus is two fold. First is finishing that first phase of stopping the infection at home in China. More important now is stopping any infection from entering the country. That includes mandatory quarantine and testing, and obviously treatment, isolation .... for those who show symptoms or who test positive.

The Chinese are now working to restart the economy and to do so as quickly as possible. That seems to be coming with great stresses and pains. The restart isn't going as quickly as desired, so leadership have mandated things to make it happen. Some of these are apparently unreasonable or impossible, and so at lower levels they have resorted to ways to fake it. Folks above are trying to detect and counter that. Etc...

All of that is creating serious societal stresses with people making all kinds of assumptions and assertions. I have no way to tell what is real and true and what isn't, or what political, financial, or other ideological axes and grudges are at work.

Add to this the enormous social strain that the quarantine and lockdown caused and how that has emotionally and psychologically affected people. No one likes being forced. It really doesn't matter if it was the right answer or not - for how they react and respond.

There is undoubtedly a huge amount that I am missing. And I have never lived in Chinese culture of any type anywhere. So, I cannot assess, judge or evaluate most of what I am reading in those contexts.

China is today an authoritarian dictatorship. Mostly that seems to be more like a benevolent though oppressive kingdom from western history. Is that right? I cannot judge or assess. I cannot even affirm that all of this is true. I am sure it is a very incomplete picture. I am sure my own cultural and personal biases color my perceptions in ways I cannot even know. That makes me even less certain.

About all I can reasonably do is to reflect back on a few hundred situations from my own history, and the interpretations that I observed from multiple perspectives to try to make sense of the information I have. Then I temper that somewhat with the little I know from Japanese, German and British cultures and a bare snippet from Indian, Tibetan, Persian, Slovakian, Polish, and Native American cultures, as well as from a dozen or more regional cultures in the US and Canada to try to get some idea of what is going on.

But, from discussions with Chinese friends over the years, and trying to translate Chinese stories I am all too aware that the cultural jump is quite large. That makes interpreting any of this difficult. 

Side note: I clearly remember trying to translate a paragraph from a story in a Chinese paper about a nuclear incident. The translation seemed to be talking about someone living over a grandmothers garage. It was idiomatic. It didn't translate at all well.

I encourage any one of you who may have a better perspective on that to chime in. I am quite interested to hear your thoughts and speculations. However ....

Within American cultural circles there are some enormous biases in several directions about China and the Chinese, and separately the Taiwanese. A lot of that is purely racist, or dog whistle racist. A lot is purely hatred and fear frankly associated with the economic systems involved. A lot is prejudicial biases and fears about history, or government, or culture, or .... A lot is also tribal - conflict of empires stuff. Much of it is fear based. I encourage everyone to be very careful in accepting any assertions that the answer is from pretty much any source. The cultural gap is large. Please exercise caution.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 13, 2020, 03:42:41 PM »
A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months.

That would pull us over the 2oC threshold.
A 1°C increase in global temperatures would be an increase in the arctic of around 3°C? In some very sick way, I do hope it happens this year. The world needs a good scare it seems before they wake up. Hopefully the world will come together now to fight the virus, and stay together to fight climate change. If we do go above 2°C, that should be scary enough. But I doubt that this will happen.

A gap has opened up in the Chukchi sea.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: February 25, 2020, 06:42:19 AM »
Quote from: kassy
Basically we do not see our trained behaviour while she does.

That is a very special talent. I have a similar talent but a bit different and of greater scope (I see a.o. social and non-verbal stuff).
I wish that her eyes will further open with time and not get the grown-ups' veil.
Please Greta, don't become a grown-up. You've already learned that not all children are mean and many are bullied just like you. That bullying behaviour is not normal natural for children (humans). It is in part a reaction/adaptation to perceived group behaviour and hierarchy of grown-ups (very toxic). The bullying behaviour is fleeing into a secure group because of fear. Fear of being alone and not belong (and of low hierarchy, unsuccesful). Many children who participate in this are not really bullies but are just too weak and scared to stand on their own. Greta has a lot of courage. Courage that you won't find amongst the bullies. Courage has nothing to do with violence.
... While in tears, Greta swallowed a couple of times and turned back around the corner to face the group of people in front of the houses of parliament. THAT'S COURAGE.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:50:59 AM »
I think it's been pretty clearly established the the numbers coming out of China are at best subject to changing definitions and practices.

That's why I'd like to keep special track of the reported cases outside China.

Yes, they are probably still vastly undercounting. But perhaps in a consistent enough way that the numbers give some notion of what is really going on.

I don't think it is useful to subtract 'special' cases like the Diamond Princess. Should we also discount the Korean cult? Or the Chinese prison (for numbers there)? All these are just the result of the variety of types of 'petri dishes' that humans willingly or unwillingly put ourselves into where viruses can go wild. And there will likely be an accelerating number such 'petri dishes' for some time to come.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 12, 2020, 03:57:51 PM »
Have a read about it in the press articles.

The environmentalists don't want it and oppose it.  Oh, yes, they're all for solar.  On buildings, car parks, etc.

You can't use the desert, some tortoises might be impacted.

Never mind the fact that if we don't start covering the deserts in solar, the Tortoises are going to get dried out and burned up.

We talk about the liveable biosphere being destroyed.  Yet the environmentalists don't seem to realise that the first impacts of the liveable biosphere breakdown won't be humans.  It will be animals.

The more we do this, the more they will complain.  Eventually someone will listen. Then we won't get any more solar because the economies of scale don't work on a whole bunch of separate infrastructure.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 09, 2020, 03:49:29 AM »
Health Experts Issued an Ominous Warning About a Coronavirus Pandemic 3 Months Ago. The Virus In Their Simulation Killed 65 Million People.

A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a fictional coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. In his simulated scenario, 65 million people died within 18 months.

... Toner's simulated pandemic also triggered a global financial crisis: Stock markets fell by 20% to 40%, and global gross domestic product plunged by 11%.

"The point that we tried to make in our exercise back in October is that it isn't just about the health consequences," Toner said. "It's about the consequences on economies and societies."


The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.


Segment 1 - Intro and Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Discussion

Segment 2 - Trade & Travel Discussion

Segment 3 - Finance Discussion

Segment 4 - Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video


The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

Thread by @Ben_Inskeep:
Today, I am pleased to announce a bold and ambitious commitment:

I change my diet to go 100% healthy food by 2050, and 45% healthy food by 2030 relative to my diet from 15 years ago when I was a college freshman.

Note that this commitment is contingent on my employer giving me full cost recovery for the deep fryer I just bought, but won't fully use in the future, as well as the higher upfront costs of fruits and vegetables.

If I am unable to eat healthy food myself, because it doesn't taste as delicious as fried food, I will still claim credit for eating the healthy food by paying my fiance to eat it for me

If you try to pass a law requiring me to do any of this, I will spend $38 million to defeat it and make tens of millions more in political contributions to your political enemies.

No, you are not allowed to weigh me or check my cholesterol or scrutinize my caloric intake. How dare you ask.

Why don't you trust me??

I don't know what soundcloud is so just listen to women, POC, and Indigenous people on climate, e.g.: @GretaThunberg @vanessa_vash @LicypriyaK @MaryHeglar @leahstokes @jnoisecat @amywestervelt @emorwee @maryannehitt @DrKateMarvel @CleanGridView @KHayhoe @rgunns @zhaabowekwe

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 07, 2020, 09:06:50 PM »
looks like all semblance of the truth died 2 days ago . I always doubted the figures , now I'm sure they have abandoned any connection to reality . b.c.

It's hard to know what to make of the drop in new cases.  It seems plausible that the extreme control measures in China have actually slowed the spread of the virus.

But the drop coincides closely with the government of China protesting vigorously against the travel restrictions placed on its citizens by other governments.  They might have concluded there was an urgent necessity to start under-counting to prevent economic collapse.

We might possibly get a better grasp of the global spread by looking at numbers of cases *outside* of China.  Many individual nations might egregiously under-report, but those that are open with their data should show whether spread is generally accelerating.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 04, 2020, 12:57:28 PM »
To study an illness you generally need access to the pathogen. Its possible to study a virus just by looking at it's genetic information in-silico (by computer), but it is much better to have the virus to hand.

I know first-hand that growing viruses in a lab is extremely challenging, as it is part of my skillset. It is even more challenging to grow a virus that is not normally grown in a lab.

To the best of my knowledge China has had labs which are able to stably propagate the virus for weeks.

Quite why they didn't share their virus with other academic groups worldwide is both shameful and baffling. It is possible this was done so their scientists could have "first dibs" on publications and breakthroughs. It took an Australian group playing catch-up before the samples were shared worldwide (from the Australian lab).

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: January 29, 2020, 06:05:05 PM »
Any idea what the "out of pocket" is for a Deplorable wanting to have his family checked for Coronavirus?

'Tis the season for coughs and sniffles & I'd imagine anyone involved in foodservice, from grocery store stock boys to pool parlor barmaids would want a clean bill of health. The annual deductibles come so soon after Xmas splurging that many may be tempted to ride out what feels much like a common cold.

Can the barmaid afford a night without her tips? Has the stock boy saved to pay his deductible, his co-pay, and testing costs?

My bet is that they show up for work until they can't, then they stay home in bed until someone drops them at the ER.

Pandemic? Hell, we can't afford an epidemic.


Quote from the WMO report for the IPCC -The Global Climate in 2015–2019

The average global temperature** for 2015–2019, which is currently estimated to be 1.1 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial (1850–1900) level, is therefore likely to be the warmest of any equivalent period on record. It is 0.20 ± 0.08 °C warmer than the average for 2011–2015

That's a rise of 0.2 celsius in 5 years. Does this suggest the temperature rise this decade may be more than the 0.17 degrees per decade from 1970 to 2010 ?
**Note the WMO assesses the temperature from 5 data sets.

If you include land use changes then we are still on RCP8.5.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 14, 2020, 07:32:39 AM »
Using a preliminary GISS-equivalent temperature for December and filtering out those short-term influences shows 2019 as the warmest year since modern records began.
Ocean temps apparently reached their highest levels yet, according to this article in the Guardian.

2019 shows a marked jump on the year before, also interesting is the apparent change in slope after 1990.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 14, 2020, 02:36:59 AM »
    It could just be another example of year to year variation, but seen as a trend indicator, losing 13% of thickness over a one year span is ominous.  Really makes me wonder what the upcoming melt season will bring. 

    Apart from the direct effect on total volume, the change in ice quality does not bode well for ice survival.  Maybe the remaining 2020 winter will reverse the striking difference between 2019 and 2020 in fraction of ice over 3 meters thick.  If not, 2020 melt season will start with the ASI preconditioned to match or exceed previous record for amount of summer ice melt, and from a low volume starting point.  It is both interesting and devastating to witness this process unfold.

    The NASA and NOAA GISS temperature observations for December 2019 will come out next week and thus statements about the 2019 full-year global average surface temperature.  By the face value, 2019 will almost certainly rank #2, just a bit (ca. 0.02C) below 2016. 

    But 2016 was a monster El Nino year and at the peak of upward solar cycle influence on temperature.  Filtering out the effect of the ENSO ONI3-4 sea surface temperature, solar, and aerosol influences that cause year to year variation reveals the underlying trend.  Using a preliminary GISS-equivalent temperature for December and filtering out those short-term influences shows 2019 as the warmest year since modern records began.

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 09, 2020, 01:45:26 PM »
Does anyone have access to the red graph that shows each year as a wavy horizontal line stacked above previous years?
Hi Terry, were you thinking of these? From

Thank you so much!
They provide a very easy to visualize picture of the increasing growth of CO2 in the atmosphere, as well as the fluxuations through the year.

Thanks again
You can also download the movie at

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 09, 2020, 10:55:00 AM »
El Cid, anthropogenic biosphere collapse (and mass extinction of life) are happening without a high temperature rise. Civilisation is doing it by itself.
The +4°C GMST is a separate effect. It is from anthropogenic global warming i.e. civilisation is doing it.

I think you are deluded if you think Canada will improve. Wait until the forests start burning and dying. Wait until Canada has received millions of climate refugees. Could the Alberta tar sands burn? Where will Canada's food come from without ecosystem functions? Where will Canada's potable water come from once aquifers are empty? Glaciers are disappearing so no hydropower.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 08, 2020, 01:06:07 AM »
ps .. please don't all but the shit dumper's jump ship .. there is a long way to go to the melting season .
It was never about the videos I posted, was it, you little shit? You just don't want me to post anything at all, isn't it, you miserable little shit?
First, you want Australia to burn in hell, then you blame drunkness and fail to apologize.
When asked to stop derailing the thread then immediately double down and derail it even more.
To add insult to injury, you ask Neven to delete personal attacks (I assume) on you and not long after you are insulting people.
Seriously.... just stop it, you are killing the thread.

The unfortunate reality is that people do not behave logically. Neither does economics work in the way that free marketeers would wish to believe. People work diligently to protect their own interests. For many extremely wealthy interests that means distorting the political, social, and economic systems to ensure their investments continue to pay out.

That renewables are cheaper than coal and oil only now means that political and financial incentives and disincentives are being put in place to prevent economic factors from causing change. As with everything else, this is less effective than those interests would like, and far more effective than prudence necessitates to avoid calamity.

Said differently- economics will not save us because a whole lot of very financially interested parties have their very heavy hands on the scales. Wisdom and intellect won’t save us either for the same reason. Self interest also won’t save us for the same reason.

Add to all of those the time lags involved. People tend to act primarily based on felt pain. With climate change, by the time we feel the change it is already decades too late to act meaningfully.

ASLR does a great service for us in highlighting many of the papers that show the various factors involved. Under current rules, those won’t even be considered until a decade after they are published.

That of course is based on the lame idea that we need to base our decisions on settled science solely. Rather than using the precautionary principle (looking out through the windshield to see what’s coming) our rules require that the windshield be painted black and that we base our decisions on using binoculars to look at where we were in the past. 

Add to that the several year to decade long lag between the time the data comes into existence and the time the studies are completed and published and we are forced to base our decisions on information and reality that is at least a dozen years old.

Under that system we have no possibility of avoiding calamity and catastrophe. The real trajectory will then be based on the high end of the range of projected outcomes - made worse by our refusal to recognize our own limited understanding of the positive feedbacks that makes the reality even worse than our projections.


Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 28, 2019, 04:27:25 PM »
From Sig's figures at #1135 above.

VW emits ~1% of global CO2 emissions while producing 1 of every 8 vehicles globally.


All cars combined must account for ~ 8% of global CO2 emissions.


Will a < 8% reduction put us in line for a 1.5 or 2C future, or is much more required of us?

Is reducing some fraction of this 8% through generous subsidies a reasonable approach? Would tossing money at more efficient HVAC, demanding better insulated homes, or requiring freight to travel by rail produce better results for fewer dollars?

I'm in favor of electrified buses, light rail & HSR, but if 8% is the maximum savings possible from automotive travel, then perhaps other avenues need to be explored.

Would a 4 day work week make a difference in the most polluting nations?
Mandatory white roofs would have a huge bang for the buck.
Declaring certain regions off limits for human habitation due to the high ecological costs of heating or cooling would produce immediate results.
Outlawing/discouraging lawns while mandating or encouraging ornamental trees in urban settings would save potable water, provide shade & eliminate powered lawnmowers. A triple headed winner!
Mandating repairable appliances saves dollars and GHGs.
Encouraging adobe style construction to moderate diurnal temperature swings is hard to beat.
Eliminating single use cans and bottles saves waste and eliminates plastic.
Mandate dual pane windows/doors cut power bills winter and summer.
High tariffs on AC units, high subsidies for evaporative coolers - wherever applicable.
Encourage high rises that incorporate housing, retail, government offices, service industries & light manufacturing/assembling. - a village within a building.
Discourage/eliminate bitcoin mining.
Mandate tree preservation.
Discourage/eliminate outdoor lighting.

None of these address transportation, yet combined have the potential to eliminate far more CO2 from the atmosphere than the electrification of automobiles.

I fear that many are focusing so tightly on the presumed advantages of eliminating ICE vehicles that they've lost sight of the other 92% of our problem. If we drain the coffers to promote EV's, will we have enough dollar$ left over when the bill for the other expensive programs our governments will face comes due? Will promoting an EV subsidy satisfy most voters demand for an ecological electoral platform?


The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 24, 2019, 09:53:21 PM »
To win in today's twitter world, the Democrats need a snake-oil salesman with a better pitch than Trump.

Forget decent policies, forget reasoned debate, find someone to out-Trump Trump.

Trouble is, then the Democrat establishment is likely to find itself as the Republican establishment finds itself - in thrall to a demagogue.

A little thing called scientific reticence:

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: December 15, 2019, 01:57:19 PM »
Hypothetical situation:
"I can't handle this. It must not be true that only civilisation is destroying all the forests, all life. I must find ways to water down all the good talk about those wild savages. To convince them that the savages are not better than us! Aarrgg. CAN'T be better than us. Impossible! I must convince them that us is all there is. Aaarrgg! it can't be trueee!"
hypothetical situation:

"Oh no! It can't be! I want to believe that there truly was a Golden Age, when man and all the beasts of this world lived in harmony in the Garden of Eden. What is this guy saying? He is destroying my butterfly-filled dreams! I know that modern industrial civilization is evil, and it was perfect during the great old days, when half of babies died before age 5 and expected lifespan was 35 years at most. Oh yes, those were the days. I won't let anyone spoil the glorious past when there still was balance in the Force!"

Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: December 15, 2019, 01:10:48 PM »
You just have to watch the road gangs laying 3 feet of concrete, to support the weight of traffic in the expectation that they will have to dig it up and relay it 10 years later and redo it.

No further debunking needed. You will not create a solar panel that has the strength to resist something feet of concrete cannot.

Hot off the presses

Arctic change and mid-latitude weather
The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet, a phenomenon called Arctic amplification. The enhanced warming results in a massive loss in sea ice and snow cover, which in turn interact with the atmosphere. These changes can have consequences beyond the Arctic region and they have been related to an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modelling studies. While there are some arguments for a causal relationship between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather extremes, the significance of an Arctic influence is still discussed. To reflect on this vivid debate, this Nature Research collection combines commentary and reviews articles with primary research articles published in Nature Communications, Nature, Nature Geoscience and Nature Climate Change. show less

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 22, 2019, 08:36:31 AM »
I remember the Occupy Wall Street process:

1. The state and media play nice and try to placate them, including politicians, media stars etc. engaging with them
- Doesn't make them go away or accept the "normal behaviour" of asking politely for mild changes

2. The state and media make fun of them and belittle them, "naive young people" blah, blah, blah.
- They still don't go away

3. The state and media try to make it harder for them, insult them, assume winter will empty the encampments
- They still don't go away

4. The state forcibly shuts them down and the media mostly look the other way and blame OWS for any violence
- They are forced underground and dispersed

For XR moving past stage 1 onto stage 2?

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 21, 2019, 04:36:37 AM »
I don't believe we've a lot of time left before were faced with a horrific catastrophe. I don't think it kills everyone, but I do believe it's the end of the of the civilization cycle that we're in. By the time hominids again reach a stage where space travel is possible they won't be Homo Sapiens any longer. Evolution leaps about after a "Great Die Off", and I think we're just about due for one.

Whatever succeeds us will have a much harder time making 'progress' than our ancestors had, simply because we've picked all of the low hanging fruit. It took us ~ 10k yrs. to get from the end of the old stone age (paleolithic), to where we are in an "information" age, but we did it with abundant coal, copper, and oil that was pooling on the surface, ready for use to seal early sailboats - before we discovered how valuable it could become as liquid fuel. The beasties that we father may even be brighter than ourselves, but they'll have none of our advantages and it will take them much longer (if ever) to reach our stage of development.

I think they'll reach a paleolithic level with no particular problems. (We did leave plenty of knappable rocks). :) But the neolithic will be more difficult with the lack of diverse species, the poisoning of large swaths of land, and much of the oceans still (hopefully) recovering. The copper age, bronze age and iron ages are steps that they'll need to circumvent, and it's difficult to imagine an industrial age without coal, copper or iron.

If they do follow our lead and look quizzically towards space, it will take many eons to get there, many more that it took our species, and we probably wouldn't recognize them as our descendants. We certainly wouldn't view them as being human.

Sorry about the rambling, but I craved a distraction from Spacex. ::)

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: November 20, 2019, 08:31:26 PM »
IMHO the best thing for astronomy is to launch very large space-based telescopes. The interference of the atmosphere, pollution, dust, LEO and GEO satellites, Earth gravity, Earth rotation, seismic activity, and other disruptions could be avoided, parallax could be increased, and measurement precision could be much improved (layman's opinion, not substantiated).
SpaceX could pave the way for such launches both by increased launch weight and by lower costs. Maybe Musk could win some points with astronomers by offering a free or half-price launch for such a telescope.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 19, 2019, 06:32:28 PM »
With our current technology, I still reckon that for humankind - there is no Planet B
Raman !
It's not clear to me that manned interplanetary travel will ever take place.

This all depends what is meant with "ever"

While i think i get your meaning and ever is meant to say "any time soon" and i agree, ever is only right if mankind does not survive the next billion years.

I'm not trying to have an opinion, that would be somehow futile, whether mankind will be still around in 1 billion years, but IF "we" are still around we shall HAVE to go, before the great heat up and ultimate digestion of planet earth by the red giant the sun will become.

I'm not saying the number o 1B is a straight valid number, just an approximate time in time when we shall seriously have to do some building, developing and testing to be capable once we have to space travel to survive.

 Furthermore, the 40-year update of Limits to Growth provides projections very much inline with our current BAU situation, and which projects a coming major socioeconomic contraction very much inline with my proposed sixth family of IPCC forcing scenarios (see the last two images, respectively).

Not only did Limits to Growth project a socio-economic collapse circa 2050, but so have the Australians:

Title: "Climate Change Could End Human Civilisation as We Know It by 2050, Analysis Finds"

Extract: "The new report, co-written by a former executive in the fossil fuel industry, is a harrowing follow-up to the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration's 2018 paper, which found that climate models often underestimate the most extreme scenarios.

Endorsed by former Australian defence chief Admiral Chris Barrie, the message is simple: if we do not take climate action in the next 30 years, it is entirely plausible that our planet warms by 3°C and that human civilisation as we know it collapses.

Under this scenario, the authors explain, the world will be locked into a "hothouse Earth" scenario, where 35 percent of the global land area, and 55 percent of the global population, will be subject to more than 20 days a year of "lethal heat conditions, beyond the threshold of human survivability."

With a runaway event like this, climate change will not present as a normal distribution, but instead will be skewed by a fat tail – indicating a greater likelihood of warming that is well in excess of average climate models.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, the authors explain, warming is set to reach 2.4°C by 2050. If feedback cycles are taken into account, however, there may be another 0.6°C that current models do not assume.

"It should be noted," the paper adds, "that this is far from an extreme scenario: the low-probability, high-impact warming (five percent probability) can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050.""

Edit: For ease of reference, I provide the two attached Limits to Growth images updated on its 40th anniversary

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 18, 2019, 08:36:40 PM »
lacking a plausible mechanism in no way minimizes the deductions from the data.  We cannot ignore the data, just because we do not understand why.

C'mon, you'd be the first to jump on the "correlation does not imply causation" bandwagon if the data were saying something different.

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 18, 2019, 06:36:18 PM »
Tom, does every woman that you value agree that you should make her reproductive decisions?   

Neven, likewise for your position.  I suppose every person you value agrees that you should prioritize their political considerations?

I think we need the broadest possible coalition of compatible ideology.  Unfortunately Tom, your ideology is tightly aligned, at least in the US, with those in the other party.  And a full-throated campaign effort on AGW will likely lose more votes than it gains.  Its better to have the conversation that science is good, and we will follow where the science takes us.   Notwithstanding that the results are in and the time for action is now.  You cannot take action if you do not have the power.  The candidate must have a portfolio of ideas and aggregate a plurality with those ideas.

For those who think that my estimate of a global socioeconomic collapse circa 2050 is too aggressive, consider that the first attached image showing the influence of deep uncertainty on global SLR projections (which indicates upper estimates of over 1m by 2050 and almost 5m by 2100); while the second image shows the distribution of world population impacted by a 5m SLR without considering any other climate change impacts.  The third image reminds readers (by replacing the magnitude curve with a consequence curve one gets risk in place of the 'Work' curve shown) that deep uncertainty carries much more risk with it than do left-tail consequences.

Microsoft is Storing Source Code in an Arctic Cave

In case, you know, the apocalypse happens.

Microsoft, which acquired GitHub for $7.5 billion in 2018, is preparing both companies for the apocalypse. No, not by storing cases of water bottles or Kombucha taps, but by locking down copies of original source code for projects stored on the GitHub code library.

The Arctic World Archive, as it's called, is tucked inside an old coal mine in Svalbard, an archipelago between mainland Norway and the North Pole.

Data is stored on specialized ultra-durable film, which is coated in iron oxide powder to add extra durability. According to the company that makes them, Piql, the reels should last for up to 750 years in normal conditions. It's possible that they could even remain intact for 2,000 years if stored in a cold, dry and low-oxygen cave.

GitHub intends to become the largest tenant of the cave. It will leave 200 platters of data, each carrying 120 gigabytes of open source software code. The first reel, for example, holds both the Linux and Android operating systems' code, plus that of 6,000 other important open source applications.

According to Piql's website, the data is all stored offline, where hackers can't tamper with it. The vault it's all inside is "disaster-proof," and "in one of the most geopolitically secure places in the world." It shares a home with Vatican archives, Brazilian land registry records, Italian movies, and the recipe for McDonald's "Special Sauce."


Code is useless without a computer  :o

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 10, 2019, 06:39:41 PM »
  I'm sure you read up on it.  Why not mention that Tesla has not taken the write-down, just the non-profit 'man in the middle'.  No, that runs against your narrative.  I think you would be much more effective if you took a more nuanced bear position.  I look forward to your posts because they generally contain some food for thought.  Unfortunately that nugget is typically surrounded by some heavy bias, and unnecessary attacks.

What the write-down doesn't reflect is the economic value of the solar panel factory's operations – and state officials warned against interpreting the write-down as an indication that the RiverBend factory's value has dropped by more than would be normal for a three-year-old factory. The size of write-down also reflects that Fort Schuyler receives only $1 a year in rent from Tesla, they said.
"The value to Fort Schuyler is what we're looking at here, not the value to Tesla or to New York State," said a Fort Schuyler official, who said the valuation is "somewhat subjective" and was arrived at after considerable discussions with its auditors."

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 06, 2019, 03:07:04 PM »
Gerontocrat, being one of your biggest admirers I am absolutely sure that you yourself are aware that just because some curve seems to fit the data, e.g. in the following, there is still no reason to think that the curve somehow represents reality. You can make an x^3 curve visually fit data from a few decades, fine, but without some thorough reasoning behind any claim that sea ice behaves according to a third power exponential law, it's just playing around with graphics. Which can be fun but doesn't tell us anything whatsoever about what is going on.

I put two different trend lines to show exactly what you are saying. the x3 trend shows the volume loss stopped, the x2 trend shows the volume continuing to decrease. I'm for x2 - annual increases in ppm getting higher, little sign of any real decrease in CO2 emissions, my data saying the carbon sinks are soaking up less than half of CO2 emissions while the literature says more than half.

I spent some time a month or two ago on this thread to show that there is no hiatus when it comes to sea ice loss in the whole Arctic. (see my graph used in the post by "Wherestheice" on Nov 5). I looked at the Central Arctic Sea to see if there is a contrast between the Central Arctic Sea and the 13 other seas in the NSIDC / PIOMAS data.

But to me the data does suggest that there is a contrast - for example one sees that seas such as the Chukchi, the ESS, the Laptev and the Kara have longer open water periods (i.e. extending the time when sea ice extent, area and volume is very low), while the Bering is now basically an open water sea. But the Central Arctic Sea is still basically an icy desert where sea ice area and extent are as yet only marginally impacted by AGW+polar amplification.

Volume is also showing that contrast since 2007 and, I think, will be the key. When thickness declines enough, area and extent will collapse. (That's my speculation that belongs to me). Or will it be earlier open water in the surrounding seas causing gradual nibbling away of the edges of the Central Arctic Sea ice?

When? NOT A CLUE - a pure guess is within the next 10 years.
ps: I am gratified to see some of my graphs sprayed around this thread.  I sometimes wonder what happens to the stuff I throw at the forum.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:45:42 PM »
Maybe the best solution would be for GSY to drop by once every quarter, after the results are published. During that day he can post whatever he likes, say whatever he likes (even that people are morons), troll, be trolled, and so on.

A bit like that movie, The Purge (haven't seen it, as I don't enjoy watching violence, but the premise is interesting).

How about it, GSY?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:02:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2 ...

Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
In general, as climate change has caused, decade by decade, sea ice loss in the Arctic, I would expect the end of a decade to have less than the decade's average.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 17, 2019, 03:48:55 PM »
It is a big problem in the whole thing. People will understand the problem and support moves to fix it.

But the second you start really screwing with people's lives, when those people have little option, sympathy goes out the window fast.

Then what exactly are they trying to prove?

FF cars, check
Flights, check

One of the largest and most heavily used public transport infrastructures which runs on Electricity in a country which is already in compliance with the Paris accord?


The message is supposed to be getting out of your fuel guzzling car and onto shared transport which runs on renewable energy.

"Own Goal" doesn't even begin to describe it.

All I can say is that if this continues in this way people are going to get hurt and those who get hurt will be the honest caring people, not those who organise XR.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: October 15, 2019, 12:00:56 PM »
Intelligence of Ignorance
(Longing to Know)

What i know, i know
what i do not know, i do not know
i have no reason to believe
i have no reason to disbelieve
i can enjoy it all
while longing to know.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 06, 2019, 08:44:03 PM »
Here is a quote which I provide first, and hope it will be read before being dismissed. The explanation of why it is here follows directly. Since this is one of the best summaries of the problem I've ever seen, I felt it was worth putting it out of context, and lead this comment with it. It is equal opportunity in accusing big fossil of corruption everywhere.

The saga includes, among other incidents, the purposeful detonation of a 50-kiloton nuclear bomb 8,000 feet below the earth's surface (unsettlingly close to an I70 exit ramp in Colorado); an international financial crisis; a 28,000 ton vessel dragging unmoored and unmanned on the craggy coast of Alaska; tornadoes; the novelty of man-made earthquakes; murdered cows; and a third-grade public school teacher panhandling to provide school supplies for her students. Even an inept Russian spy ring ferreted out of suburban tract houses in New Jersey and Virginia. Even Russia's interference in the 2016 US presidential election. Seems unlikely, but it all ties.

The motive force of all the action - its fuel as well as its engine - is the most consequential, the most lucrative, the most powerful, and the least-well-governed major industry in the history of mankind. Oil and gas. I do not propose to discount or minimize the powerful and positive effects the producers of our hydrocarbons have had on our own country and on the world at large. I like driving ... and heating my house as much as the next person, and the through line between energy and economic growth and development is as clear to me as an electric streetlight piercing the black night. But the political impact of the industry that brings us those things is also worth recognizing as a key ingredient in the global chaos and democratic downturn we're now living through.

I don't mean to be rude, but I also want to be clear: the oil and gas industry is essentially a big casino that can produce both power and triumphant great gobs of cash, often with little regard for merit. This equation invites gangsterism, extortion, thuggery, and the sorts of folks who enjoy these hobbies. Its practitioners have been lumbering across the globe of late, causing mindless damage and laying the groundwork for the global catastrophe that is the climate crisis, but also reordering short-term geopolitics in a strong-but-dumb survival contest that renders everything we think of as politics as just theatre. It's worth understanding why. And why now.

Why is this here? Because Neven has shut down a discussion about Rachel Maddow's superb book about the history of oil and gas and its takeover of the world (quote is from her introduction), with some blistering insults and misrepresentations (see below). This is not true (I was going to say something stronger, the lack of skepticism reflects a strange lack of interest in the facts or the truth; it is hard to understand why Neven, who has does the world a great service as one of the world's most superb reporters on the cryosphere, chooses to be guided by hate on this). It is gaslighting, ad hominem, using personal attacks to discredit some of the best reporting on big fossil we have in the world today. I didn't know exactly where to put it, so here it is.

Please at least read the above quote with an open mind (it's from the introduction to Blowout. It is a powerful bit of truthtelling. To call the author one of the out-of-touch-millionnaire stooges of smoke-and-mirrors neoliberalism is wrong, and it does harm.

Re: Last Stand of The Fossil Fools« Reply #1 on: Today at 12:38:02 PM »

But this has nothing to do whatsoever with Arctic sea ice, and a video with two out-of-touch-millionnaire stooges of smoke-and-mirrors neoliberalism is about the worst starting point one could imagine.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 04, 2019, 01:04:49 PM »
One could look at that image and say "Wow, data for last 10-15 years BELOW the prediction every single year."  One year also blasts way below the uncertainty estimates for the model.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:19:29 PM »
Golden Ratio Observed in Human Skulls

In a new study investigating whether skull shape follows the Golden Ratio (1.61803398875 … ), Johns Hopkins researchers compared 100 human skulls to 70 skulls from six other animals, and found that the human skull dimensions followed the Golden Ratio. The skulls of less related species such as dogs, two kinds of monkeys, rabbits, lions and tigers, however, diverged from this ratio.

Rafael J. Tamargo et al. Mammalian Skull Dimensions and the Golden Ratio (Φ), Journal of Craniofacial Surgery (2019)

Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: October 01, 2019, 08:18:55 PM »
Excellent work by Gerontocrat into carbon sinks. However, I am surprised to find the quantity in gigatonne of carbon sunk being on the same axis as percentage sunk given that total emissions are not constant.
It isn't.

Percentages - refer to the right axis (green)
Amounts in GT - refer to the left axis (red).

Revised graph attached with amount left in atmosphere (in GT) added. (Also after rooting around online found a better figure to convert CO2 ppm to CO2 Gigatons - minor change).

Note that as regards percentages of CO2 sunk, the most often quoted figures are 30% Ocean, 26% Land, Total Percent of Emissions captured 56%.

The ten year average on 1980 to 2019 data is never higher than just over 52%.

If 2019 data ends up in line with current estimates, the percent of CO2 captured in 2019 will be only about 42%

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