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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 12:39:20 AM »
... It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera.

... like saying ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 13, 2020, 08:19:10 PM »

The politics / Re: Joe Biden
« on: August 12, 2020, 07:37:37 PM »
So Joe Biden chose a VP and you say this might be a bad choice.

But come on!

Joe Biden. Really?

Biden vs Trump.

Are these really the two best people America can offer for voters? If that is so, the USA is doomed

(Last time it was Hillary vs Trump which was an even worse choice). What a shame

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 11, 2020, 10:37:33 PM »

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: August 11, 2020, 11:12:00 AM »

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:52:41 PM »
Re: mac backup

time machine on two external drives, rotate one out of the house weekly


Exactly and in addition i recommend bootable backups with this nice piece of software:

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:51:19 PM »
I use Karen's Replicator for backing up data / data-only drives. Macrium Reflect (free version) for making a whole disk image of my OS (Operating System) drive. Quite easy, and the only thing you need money for is [an] external drive[ s].

This is a very easy way for even total n00bs to keep their computer fully backed up. Any questions, just ask. (feel free to PM me, if you want, gero.)

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:31:18 PM »
Re: mac backup

time machine on two external drives, rotate one out of the house weekly



Nioghalvfjerdsbrae... No wonder people say 79N glacier.  ;D

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:50:12 PM »

  Perhaps the coffee drinking pooch can access a no-spill cup when on the computer in future ..

Possibly the dog just wanted to join in the conversation.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 05, 2020, 08:49:08 PM »
What is the absolute minimum CO2 a person can emit into the atmosphere, assuming he lives 100 years and his only emissions are respiratory exhalation?
Its quite large, but also quite misleading. Thats because it comes from eating food, and that food took CO2 out of the atmosphere as it was made. What hurts the climate isn't the carbon in the carbohydrates of your food, its the carbon in the methane that was used to make the fertiliser applied to the fields where your food was grown, and the carbon in the oil that was used to drive the tractor that harvested it, and the carbon in the trees that were cut down to clear the field.
The carbon you breathe out is genuinely renewable, its the carbon that went into manufacturing your food, rather than the carbon in the food itself, that isn't.

Assume almost but not quite starvation level is 1000 calories per day. (2000-2500 is the generally recommended level for a healthy diet that avoids a relatively sedentary westerner becoming obese)
Thats 250g of sugar, which is 40% carbon, so 100g carbon per day, 36.5 kg per year, 3.65 tonnes per century. Round because this is a really rough estimate and not worth more than 1 sig fig.

4 tonnes.

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:24:09 AM »
'Worst-Case' CO2 Emissions Scenario Is Best for Assessing Climate Risk and Impacts to 2050

The RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions pathway, long considered a "worst case scenario" by the international science community, is the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 2050, according to a new article published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Long dismissed as alarmist or misleading, the paper argues that is actually the closest approximation of both historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of current global climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.

"Not only are the emissions consistent with RCP 8.5 in close agreement with historical total cumulative CO2 emissions (within 1%), but RCP8.5 is also the best match out to mid-century under current and stated policies with still highly plausible levels of CO2 emissions in 2100," the authors wrote. "... Not using RCP8.5 to describe the previous 15 years assumes a level of mitigation that did not occur, thereby skewing subsequent assessments by lessening the severity of warming and associated physical climate risk."

The commentary also emphasizes that while there are signs of progress on bending the global emissions curve and that our emissions picture may change significantly by 2100, focusing on the unknowable, distant future may distort the current debate on these issues. "For purposes of informing societal decisions, shorter time horizons are highly relevant, and it is important to have scenarios which are useful on those horizons. Looking at mid-century and sooner, RCP8.5 is clearly the most useful choice," they wrote.

The article also notes that RCP 8.5 would not be significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, adding that "we note that the usefulness of RCP 8.5 is not changed due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming pandemic restrictions remain in place until the end of 2020 would entail a reduction in emissions of -4.7 Gt CO2. This represents less than 1% of total cumulative CO2 emissions since 2005 for all RCPs and observations."

Christopher R. Schwalm el al., "RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions," PNAS (2020)


A close read of the study shows that it didn't take into account economic considerations, such as the fact that renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels.  And it's also missing the point that emissions up through the 2020s are very close in all scenarios.  Here's a figure from the paper that shows that fact:

For future projections, they rely on the IEA assessment of Government policy decisions, ignoring the impacts of the energy transition underway.  And let's not forget how badly the IEA has been at forecasting the pace of the energy transition.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:17:21 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:19:52 PM »
To all the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-everything people, this is the logical conclusion of “freedom”.

The politics / Re: The problem of social media
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:37:05 PM »
Nathan J. Robinson at it again. Brilliant article. Please read.

The Truth Is Paywalled But The Lies Are Free

Link >>

I think the best reference is the film "Chasing Ice" which caught such an event on video (2012). I know I once watched a much longer version, but the last half minute of this gives a nice visual overview of how each calving step causes the next.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 03, 2020, 01:07:26 PM »
Kassy, that was an interesting read. God knows we want to pass down clear and definite knowledge which does not change or vary over time.

Anyone who could suggest a religious cult as a way of preserving clear knowledge knows nothing about preserving fact.

I noted they missed the two most obvious things.

First that anyone in danger of the contents would have the technology to excavate it and anyone with the technology to excavate it will know the periodic table of elements.  Simply listing the full table with the elements highlighted would be a really good start.

Second, a picture speaks a thousand word.  A fresco depicting radiation poisoning with moon cycles and binary number notation for elapsed time would suffice.

Both cast in our most imperishable alloys then embedded. In crystal.

Of course this assumes that our society has fallen and others are trying to excavate our history.  In the digital age it is relatively simple to have infinite retention of knowledge, all we need to do is put the effort in.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:47:53 PM »
It's pretty clear to me that the media has actually vastly underplayed the severity of the virus.

What I haven't seen much of in the MSM (to the extent that I view it) are endless 'up close and personal' stories about victims of the disease, the suffering of their relatives...

Instead it has mostly been about the numbers and the experts and politics.

It is emotional personal stories that moves people to both care about the individual outcome as well as the larger issue, and that would prompt people to take the necessary precautions, whatever the policy makers end up doing. So while I lay the lion's share of blame for the disastrous US non-response to covid-19 at the feet of Trump and his hapless minions, I see the media as also partly to blame.

There are about 1000 stories of deaths a day they could cover, and many others of near deaths, etc. So it's not like there's a lack of freakin' material for them to work with. And they know full well what stories are most effective at changing hearts as well as minds...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 07:53:03 AM »
"That's one messed up jet stream. It's looks like the planet's atmosphere is going through some big changes. Summer's still here but the gases are throwing curve balls to the northern pole, can't see this sort of thing happening in Jupiter or Saturn, let alone Venus or even Mars. Of course the presence of water vapor makes for rather nice looking swirls, but the normal meteorological rules applied on watery planets have been, at least temporarily, thrown out of window. We should study this", Captain Picard on meeting a pre-warp civilization.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:22:15 PM »
Re: put oneself on the Ignore list?

I tried that once, didnt seem to work ...


The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 01, 2020, 09:57:36 PM »
The US always checked a lot of those bullet points. The demon sperm POTUS completed the list.

The 14 characteristics of fascism:

Political scientist Dr. Lawrence Britt recently wrote an article about fascism ("Fascism Anyone?," Free Inquiry, Spring 2003, page 20). Studying the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia), and Pinochet (Chile), Dr. Britt found they all had 14 elements in common. He calls these the identifying characteristics of fascism. The excerpt is in accordance with the magazine's policy.

The 14 characteristics are:

Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.

Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.

Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.

Supremacy of the Military
Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.

Rampant Sexism
The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Opposition to abortion is high, as is homophobia and anti-gay legislation and national policy.

Controlled Mass Media
Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.

Obsession with National Security
Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.

Religion and Government are Intertwined
Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions.

Corporate Power is Protected
The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.

Labor Power is Suppressed
Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed .

Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts is openly attacked, and governments often refuse to fund the arts.

Obsession with Crime and Punishment
Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.

Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.

Fraudulent Elections
Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

Link >>

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:05:46 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:42:40 PM »
Another deep red month.

Click to enlarge.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:33:23 PM »
Covid-19 is serious for people with comorbidity and the very old. The History books will use Covid-19 as the cause of the Second Great Depression, deflecting blame from the Capitalist class, we never recovered from the 2008 Economic crash by 2019 and a Depression was already baked into the cake.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 01, 2020, 03:43:35 AM »
Swiss cheese is made with two strains of cheese bacteria so the parable is excellent, swiss cheese bacteria act as plumes of hotter water... --> tries to go on to parable other types of cheeses to other types of ice. White mould cheese with the crust - multiyear ice, blue cheese- leads and pressure ridges. Gorgonzola - stacking ice slabs, peppered cheese, soft cheese...

Thanks. :)

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: July 31, 2020, 06:53:28 PM »
Important Twitter thread. Please read!

Today Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo unveiled the real nightmare scenario for the 2020 election—and the question of what Trump has legal authority to do has nothing to do with it. I hope you'll read on and retweet—as what I'm describing here is what America is heading for.

Autocracies aren't born in rule of law. They're not even primarily born in violence. Rather they arise *despite* rule of law—often on the strength of a benighted populism, in fact just the sort of populist movement Trump is building now over false fears of a "rigged" election.

The question isn't whether Trump has legal authority to move Election Day and thereby extend his presidency—he doesn't—but a different question: what happens if he just declares that he *does* have this power? And what if he can do so with a false *veneer* of legal legitimacy?

By October 31, Trump's decision not to combat COVID-19 (indeed to worsen the pandemic with every one of his words, actions, and decisions not to act), coupled with an incipient flu season, is likely to send America's COVID-19 data—infections, deaths—into its horrifying nadir.

Meanwhile, Trump has put a crony who's likely a witness in an ongoing federal criminal probe—a man who's a peer of perjurers (and worse) Michael Cohen, Elliott Broidy and Gordon Sondland—in charge of the United States Postal Service. Already, this crony is destroying the USPS.

If, on October 30, COVID-19 is cresting—as it likely will be—and the USPS is less able to deliver mail properly than at any point in recent history, as seems likely (and on Trump's end intentional), Trump's self-manufactured "case" for a national emergency will be at its apex.

Today, Mike Pompeo told us Trump lackey Barr—who has never refused the president anything, who appears to be a Trump co-conspirator in the Ukraine scandal, and who has already shown a penchant for violating the law—gets to decide if Trump can announce a change in Election Day.

Note that each time I use the anodyne euphemism "change in Election Day," what I'm describing is in fact apocalyptic—an artificial extension of the Trump presidency corresponding with the end of American democracy and the beginning of Trump's reign as America's first autocrat.

Barr has already instructed OLC (the Office of Legal Counsel) to produce opinions that violate all existing law (for that matter, we saw that during the prior GOP administration, Bush's, as to torture). Barr can get the OLC to crush a CIA whistleblower—or change Election Day.

I ask anyone reading this to simply play out the following hypothetical—the one I offer in the next tweet—which is "hypothetical" only insomuch as it takes everything we know about Trump, Pompeo, Barr, COVID-19, and the USPS *right now* and projects it 90 days into the future:

On October 30, Trump announces, with an OLC opinion "granting" him this power in hand, that he is moving the 2020 presidential election 120 days, after which time he will review the nation's ability to safely and securely conduct an election. He announces it via tweet and TV.

Understand that this would be illegal—and wouldn't change election day. But that wouldn't be the point. The point would be to *convince Trump voters not to vote*.

You may have to read the preceding sentence multiple times—it's counterintuitive unless you're a metamodernist.

This thread isn't on metamodernism. All you need to know is that on the day in June 2015 Trump announced his candidacy, I published a HuffPost essay declaring that what made Trump dangerous was his ability to manipulate reality (in a way theorists connect to "metamodernism").

The way to win an unwinnable election, using the sort of powerful reframing of events a certain way of thinking Trump instinctively (not intelligently or responsibly) employs, is not to turn out your voters... but *declare the election invalid once your voters don't show up*.

The purpose of the pre-election Trump announcement I am hypothesizing here would not be to help Trump *win* the 2020 election, but to convince so many Trump voters *not to vote* that the results of the election favor Biden by *so much* the election looks wholly illegitimate.

Imagine a scenario in which, with 3 branches of government—executive, judicial, legislative—you have the executive branch declaring the election was moved, the judicial branch (as yet) silent, and the legislative branch in chaos because no one in the GOP knows what to say/do.

By convincing his voters to stay home—because he's "moved the election"—Trump will have caused every GOP member of Congress to *lose their reelection*, *forcing* them to back his play and say that the election was delayed and therefore Biden didn't actually win on November 3.

The result: an executive branch that says the election was invalid; half the legislative branch (the GOP half) saying the election was invalid; election results that *look* invalid (as Biden has won by 50+ points); and a judicial branch that hasn't—and can't—say anything yet.

In that circumstance, what does "rule of law" even mean? You have a separation of powers issue—a conflict between branches of government—that the Supreme Court *must* hear, and because it's the most complex case ever heard by SCOTUS in US history, it's impossible to expedite.

The mere fact that Trump would have enacted this constitutional crisis just 96 hours pre-election means SCOTUS *can't* speak on it pre-election, and the complexity of the case would throw into chaos *all* state election deadlines. Which is basically the point of Trump's plot.

All Trump needs in this scenario is a) SCOTUS to move at its usual glacial pace, and b) GOP-run states (states with GOP secretaries of state running their elections) to *refuse to certify election results* or *choose electors* until the Supreme Court has acted on the issue.

I'm not even sure *Trump* would be the plaintiff in this case—as he and his GOP allies in Congress (and GOP secretaries of state) would so adamantly declare the election results invalid they might wait to make the *Democrats* sue in federal court, making them look desperate.

And how magnanimous Trump will be! He and his GOP allies will offer to *negotiate* with Democrats in lieu of them filing a federal suit. Trump will say, "We have to wait until this invisible plague is under control. That's *all* anyone is asking here." It'll sound persuasive!

Know what'll make it *more* persuasive? Election results so insane-looking—Biden 82%, Trump 15%—they'll make Egypt's el-Sisi blush. Biden will be half-inclined to *agree* with Trump on a do-over—knowing his term as an "illegitimate monarch" may be marked by historic violence.

Right now I need everyone in media; everyone on "legal Twitter"; everyone who's a professional political analyst to comment on this thread—or on your own feeds, it doesn't matter—explaining why this Trump plan wouldn't work. Why it isn't *exactly* what he's setting us up for.

Understand that I didn't develop this thread out of some fever dream. All I did was take statements and actions by Trump, Barr, and Pompeo; the current status of COVID-19 and the USPS (and who controls each); and the way of thinking Trump has exhibited *since June 2015*.

PS/ I understand—and empathize with, as a lawyer—those who reply, "Nah, he ceases to be POTUS on January 20th at noon."

Again, that's the view that *law* determines if a coup is successful, not the brute force of populism and logistics—the logic undergirding Trump's actions now.

In the scenario I've described, yes, the law would suggest Biden—having won the election 82% to 15%; with less than 270 electoral votes; and with all GOP politicians and all GOP secretaries of state and most GOP voters saying he won a fake election—is the president. So what?

What would in mean—in that scenario—for someone to be "president"? And that's the question the five ultra-conservative justices of the Supreme Court would have to decide, probably on a timeline so glacial it couldn't be concluded effectively until early January 2021 at best.

More importantly, that's the question *Democrats* would have to decide—and would probably be deciding in the midst of historic Republican protests and threats of violence all across the country. Would *Democrats* consider it their best move to accept that election "victory"?

We learned in January '20 that impeachments are about politics, not law—though they're supposed to adhere to rule of law. In January '21 we may learn *elections* are *also* about politics, not law. What happens if Dems must allow a do-over to preserve the peace of our Union?

This scenario works for Trump even if early voting depresses Biden's win to (say) 62% to 36%. It may even work without Barr aboard. It may work if the "don't vote" effort is homegrown, inspired and supported by Trump but not demanded by him. The premise itself is the thing.

The solution here is for America to publicly discuss this scenario *now*—and invalidate it. GOP politicians must agree to abide by the election results even if Trump convinces his voters not to show up. Barr must state clearly that Trump cannot legally "move" election day.

Constitutional law experts must play out how SCOTUS would act. Election law experts must do scenario-planning on how misconduct by GOP secretaries of state could be thwarted. Dems must educate Republicans on who's POTUS on January 20 if SCOTUS is still working on a ruling.

Democrats must announce now that there'll be no "do-over" election—and anyone who opts not to vote is making a decision they must *live by*. Emergency assistance must be provided to USPS. Social media should deem Trump tweets on moving election day "election interference."

It's amazing to see responses saying "the military wouldn't allow it" or "Pelosi would be POTUS." Again, this sort of coup happens through *politics, rhetoric, and the reframing of reality with GOP pol/voter support*—it has nothing to do with law, violence or the military.

Link >>

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2020, 04:49:08 PM »
Yes, technically it is not a true hibernation as their body temperature does not decrease.  However, the bears can reduce their metabolic rate, while maintaining body temperature, a state sometimes called "walking hibernation."  Similarly, a female polar bear will enter the same state, often referred to as "denning."  In either case, less nutrition is required to maintain the lower metabolic rate.  As the winter temperature warms, less nutrition is required to maintain body temperature. 

Polar bears do not fatten up in winter, as the solid sea ice prevents hunting.  Rather, they catch seals in spring and early summer. when the ice begins to break up and seals emerge from their dens.  The longer the summer ice-free season, the fewer calories, but this is compensated for by a shorter winter ice-clad season.  Areas which have experienced thick spring ice in the past have had detrimental effects on the survival of polar bear cubs.

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: July 28, 2020, 07:52:35 PM »
Germany: Fox steals over 100 shoes in Berlin

Link >>

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:42:38 PM »
Anybody, anywhere, please give me one convincing study that shows how we can beat climate change by building 7.5 billion electric cars.

We can not beat climate change by building 7.5 billion electric cars. That's stupid.

However, we can beat climate change by:

Switching all our energy production to renewables. (Tesla Energy)
Switching all our transportation to electric (Tesla Motors)
Significantly reducing our transportation fingerprint (Boring Company, self driving cars, million mile powertrains)
Switching to sustainable farming ( Not tesla)
Do all that inside 10 years. ( Not tesla by itself, although they are trying)
Do that while working on massive carbon capture solutions. ( not tesla)
Do that while developing geoengineering solutions for the worst hit Earth systems like the Arctic.(Not Tesla)

By no means can Tesla alone save us from the horrors of climate change. However, Tesla can help tremendously and it already helped move the electric car from akward machinery to state of the art.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:57:00 PM »
This onion classic should be played everytime someone claims US is a democracy.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: July 26, 2020, 11:27:44 AM »
A Bipartisan Group Secretly Gathered to Game Out a Contested Trump-Biden Election. It Wasn’t Pretty

WASHINGTON — On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

... “He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

It is a fear that has been stoked by the president himself, who has repeatedly warned, without offering evidence, of widespread fraud involving mail-in ballots — which voters are likely to use at unprecedented levels because the pandemic has made in-person voting a potential health risk — to cast doubt on the results of November’s election.

“I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election, I really do,” he told Fox News’ Chris Wallace last Sunday. When asked if he would accept the election results, he said: “I’ll have to see.”

Former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has taken to issuing foreboding warnings of his own. “This president is going to try to indirectly steal the election by arguing that mail-in ballots don’t work — they’re not real, they’re not fair,” he said at a fund-raiser on Thursday night. He has also mused publicly about Trump having to be escorted, forcibly if need be, from the White House.

That happened in one of the four scenarios the Transition Integrity Project gamed out, according to summaries of the exercises provided to The Boston Globe. But constitutional experts — and the game play — was less focused on the possibility of a cinematic, militarized intervention on Inauguration Day, which is a possibility many still consider remote, than the room the Constitution appears to leave for a disastrous and difficult transition if the incumbent does not accept a loss.

“When we started talking about this we got a lot of reactions — oh, you guys are so paranoid, don’t be ridiculous, this isn’t going to happen,” Brooks said.

Two things have happened since then: Trump has displayed increased willingness to challenge mail-in ballots, and his administration has deployed federal forces to quell protests in front of the White House and in Portland, Ore., and has threatened to do so in other cities.

“That has really shaken people,” Brooks said. “What was really a fringe idea has now become an anxiety that’s pretty widely shared.”

Brooks, Gilman, and others recruited a slate of players including a former swing state governor, a former White House chief of staff, and a former head of the Department of Homeland Security. They invited both Democrats and Republicans who they knew had concerns about Trump’s comments on the election; nearly 80 people in all were involved. The Republicans were described by participants as “never Trump” or “not Trump Republicans.”

They played using the so-called Chatham House Rules — in which participants can discuss what was said, but not who was there.

The game was elaborate. The participants took on the roles of the Trump campaign, the Biden campaign, relevant government officials, and the media —generally, Democrats played Democrats and Republicans played Republicans — and used a 10-sided die to determine whether a team succeeded in its attempted moves. The games are not meant to be predictive; rather, they are supposed to give people a sense of possible consequences in complex scenarios.

Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.

In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.

To some participants, the game was a stark reminder of the power of incumbency.

“The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

In multiple scenarios, officials on both sides homed in on narrowly decided swing states with divided governments, such Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, hoping to persuade officials there to essentially send two different results to Congress. If a state’s election is disputed, a legislature controlled by one party and governor of another each could send competing slates of electors backing their party’s candidate.

Both sides turned out massive street protests that Trump sought to control — in one scenario he invoked the Insurrection Act, which allows the president to use military forces to quell unrest. The scenario that began with a narrow Biden win ended with Trump refusing to leave the White House, burning government documents, and having to be escorted out by the Secret Service. (The team playing Biden in that scenario, meanwhile, sought to patch things up with Republicans by appointing moderate Republican governors, including Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, to Cabinet positions.)

The scenario that produced the most contentious dynamics, however, was the one in which Trump won the Electoral College — and thus, the election — but Biden won the popular vote by 5 percentage points. Biden’s team retracted his Election Night concession, fueled by Democrats angry at losing yet another election despite capturing the popular vote, as happened in 2000 and 2016. In the mock election, Trump sought to divide Democrats — at one point giving an interview to The Intercept, a left-leaning news outlet, saying Senator Bernie Sanders would have won if Democrats had nominated him. Meanwhile, Biden’s team sought to encourage large Western states to secede unless pro-Democracy reforms were made.

That scenario seemed highly far-fetched, but it envisioned a situation in which both sides may have incentives to contest the election.

“There is a narrative among activists in both parties that the loss must be illegitimate,” he said.

According to the Constitution, the presidency ends at noon on Jan. 20, at which point the newly inaugurated president becomes the commander in chief.

The games, ultimately, were designed to explore how difficult it could be to get there.

“The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:05:14 PM »
We're 5 days ahead of 2019, 7 days ahead of '12, between 9-14 days ahead of '11-'18.
The thicker dashed blue line is the average of 2001-'05, we're >A Month ahead.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: July 25, 2020, 06:31:30 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 25, 2020, 10:39:43 AM »
admitted to hospital last night after being found COVID-19 free . Then after months of careful quarantining , within minutes of getting to the ward , I have a drunk in my face who has just had a 4 day party for his 40th . On complaining to nurses I'm told this is just the risk of coming to hospital . FFS ! b.c.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:08:43 AM »

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:38:58 PM »
A bit of a rambling rant...

To have a BOE requires the peripheral seas and the seas bordering the Arctic Ocean - except perhaps or perhaps not, North of Greenland, to melt out earlier, and they are. So the climatic effects of a BOE are already with us, as that is the direction of travel. Even the winter maximum has reduced - the JAXA March monthly average from 16 million km2 to 14 million km2 - i.e. on average 45,000 km2 less ice every year. And the September monthly average has reduced from 7.5 million km2 to 3.5 million km2 (current guess)- i.e. on average 95,000 km2 less ice every year.

So there are parts of the Arctic where the icy desert has become open water permanently, and in much of the rest of the Arctic Seas for an ever increasing part of the year..

It seems to me that a BOE will just be a bit more of the same. We just need to look at what is happening now - greening of the Tundra, heatwaves burning the Tundra, movement of ocean life north, and surely the climate scientists can tell us what the Arctic climate might be like, say in 2030, with half a million km2 less ice in winter and a million km2 less ice in summer in an average year.

Who needs tipping points & drama when disaster is already baked in, even if the baking time is long? But of course if Arctic Amplification becomes amplification of a general acceleration in world temperatures (say from collapsing carbon sinks), then the BOE would largely be an effect of global heating rather than a major  cause of regional and world climate changes.

But what a vast subject - feedbacks with Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss and / or Gain springs to mind. No, too hard a nut to even attempt to crack.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 09:10:56 PM »
I was thinking about 2012 vs 2020.

I think that the big difference is that the 2012 GAC did not add net energy to the system - on the contrary! - it simply "brought up heat" from the ocean that temporarily melted the ice but then this energy was lost during the fall through radiation to space (hence the recovery years of 2013 and 14)

The 2020 GAAC however added net new energy to the system through insolation and this energy will (at least for a good while) stay in the system (ie. will be stored in the Arctic Ocean). Probably at least until winter but likely longer.

I believe 2020 has the chance to be a (Arctic and NH) climate  game changer just like 2007 was...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:33:12 PM »
To put some content around the amount of extent loss that has occurred over the past 24 days from June 29 through July 22, the table below shows the total extent loss for each year starting in 2001.  It also lists the percentage drop of the extent that year.

2020 leads in both extent loss (with more that 3.06 million km2) as well as percentage loss (33.4%). 

In terms of extent loss, 2007 and 2013 with losses of approximate 2.7 million, are about 300k behind 2020.  After that, the next closest year was 2019 with 2.44 million extent loss, approximately 600k behind 2020 for that period.

Year    Extent Loss    Percent Decline
2001   -1,630,836   -16.2%
2002   -2,148,569   -20.4%
2003   -1,945,950   -18.9%
2004   -1,604,575   -15.6%
2005   -2,038,679   -20.9%
2006   -1,806,967   -19.1%
2007   -2,716,544   -27.9%
2008   -2,096,592   -21.1%
2009   -2,406,101   -24.0%
2010   -1,559,462   -17.3%
2011   -2,364,505   -25.8%
2012   -2,240,915   -24.1%
2013   -2,725,735   -27.7%
2014   -1,998,228   -21.4%
2015   -2,325,684   -24.2%
2016   -1,956,457   -21.5%
2017   -2,145,284   -23.3%
2018   -2,032,152   -21.4%
2019   -2,444,626   -26.6%
2020   -3,063,773   -33.4%

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:05:15 PM »
There is absolutely no indication that the world climate is cooling. Not this year, not this decade, not this century.

I recomment dropping this argument here and now!

Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: July 23, 2020, 01:42:32 PM »
Perhaps this isn't the best place for this question, but I am wondering how this new ECS estimate handles arctic ice feedbacks. The abstract says "We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record."

Do they explicitly include the possibility of an early collapse in arctic ice cover? What if we go below 2 million km^2 this year and that results in a state change and larger and larger areas of open water during summer become the norm going forward? How would that change ECS? In a way, such an event is almost independent of future rises in CO2 as we continue toward a doubling, but it would certainly effect the energy balance of the planet and the trajectory of future temperatures.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 22, 2020, 11:10:03 PM »


Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:21:34 PM »
So nanning
You don't make use of your country's excellent social welfare provisions ?
Under which any adult citizen of the Netherlands  is entitled to  receive 70%  of the mandated minimum wage of about 20,000 euros a year with further provisions for hard ship and to assist  in providing a roof over their head .
That money comes from and is therefore  taking part of our technological extractive civilization.

You don't like private cars and think we should go without.
in your country it may be possible to have a life without one due to population density, geology and climate.
In many places it may not be so easy to live without a car.
It is less than two kilometres as the crow flys to my work place.
To get there is a  14km drive on a mostly unsealed road around a range of hills that are 100 meters higher than the highest point in your entire country. Last week it rained here 220 mm fell in 12 hours that is three months average rainfall in your country .   NZ has a population density of 15 persons per sqkm for the Netherlands the  population density is 488 per sqkm. There is little public transport in northland  it is simply too uneconomic to provide outside of Whangarei city. A Private car is a necessity not a luxury in NZ outside of the large city's.

You recently complained of usa centric commentators. Me thinks you should also be weary of your own bias for the situation in your own surrounding .

It's been 124 years since Arrhenius published calculations showing increased CO2 would raise the temperature by 4+ °C. 124 years we've had to act. O n e h u n d r e d t w e n t y f o u r years!

On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground

Link >>

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2020, 07:15:28 PM »
Apologies if someone already mentioned it, but I thought it worth noting that the sea ice extent as measured by NSIDC on July 17th (6.954 million km2) is already lower than the September minimum extents from 1980 (7.533), 1982 (7.16), 1983 (7.204), 1986 (7.122), 1988 (7.048), 1992 (7.159), and 1996 (7.147).

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 18, 2020, 07:00:06 PM »
US Death Count Up 19%

The United States on Friday set another record for daily coronavirus infections, with states reporting a combined 76,403 new confirmed cases — more than double the amount the country was reporting daily during the initial surge of cases in the spring

The number of new coronavirus cases is up 19.7% from last week and the national death count is up 19% during the same period, according to an internal Federal Emergency Management Agency memo obtained by ABC News.

Those figures aren't the only increases. The national fatality rate is now 3.8% and the test positivity rate saw a slight increase in the last seven days, coming in at 10.1%. It was 9.8% during the week prior, according to the FEMA. memo.

Other concerning rises include that 13% of COVID-19 inpatients are on a ventilator, which is the first weekly rise in this stat since early June. Also, 32% of in-use ventilators across the U.S. are occupied by COVID-19 patients. At the coronavirus peak in April, it was 45%. In early June, it was 17%, according to FEMA.

The number of available ICU beds also continues to be a problem. The memo said that 19% of all medical facilities in the U.S. have more than 80% of their ICU beds filled.

Two of the hardest-hit states, Florida and Texas, are still not seeing a slowdown in cases. From July 8-14, Florida had its highest test-positivity rate to date at 17.9%. It also had a record daily death toll of 156 on July 16. Hospitalizations in the sunshine state, according to the FEMA memo, are expected to peak in 10 days.

Meanwhile in Texas, the state had record highs of cases and deaths on July 15.

This grim news is not exclusive to the U.S., COVID-19 cases reached 14 million across the globe Friday. The world hit 10 million on June 28 — a 40% increase in less than three weeks.


Coronavirus Symptoms Fall Into Six Different Groupings, Study Finds

Symptoms of Covid-19 appear to fall into six different groupings, researchers have revealed, in work they say could help to predict whether a patient will end up needing a ventilator or other breathing support.

The team say the findings could give healthcare providers several days advanced warning of demand for hospital care and respiratory support.

... The researchers drew on data from 1,653 app users who tested positive for Covid-19, reported persistent symptoms and regularly logged updates on their health and situation. Overall, 383 of these users made at least one trip to hospital, and 107 required either extra oxygen or ventilation.

The team then used machine learning algorithms – a type of artificial intelligence – to explore whether some symptoms, among the 14 monitored, cluster together. The results suggest six different groupings based on the type of symptoms, when they occurred, and their duration within the first 14 days of participants’ sickness.

And there was more. “We saw that there was a very clear gradient between these clusters and outcomes in terms of [participants’ need for] respiratory support,” said Dr Claire Steves, clinical senior author on the paper from King’s College London, adding other factors such as older age or certain pre-existing medical conditions were more common in some groups.

The six groupings, or “clusters”, are:

Cluster 1: Mainly upper respiratory tract symptoms, such as a persistent cough, with muscle pain also present. About 1.5% of patients in this group required respiratory support, with 16% making one or more trips to hospital. This was the most common cluster of symptoms, affecting 462 participants.

Cluster 2: Mainly upper respiratory tract symptoms, but also a greater frequency of skipped meals and fever. Of patients in this group 4.4% required respiratory support, with 17.5% making one or more trips to hospital.

Cluster 3: Gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhoea, but few other symptoms. While only 3.7% of patients in this group later needed respiratory support, almost 24% made at least one visit to hospital.

Cluster 4: Early signs of severe fatigue, continuous chest pain and cough. Of patients in this group 8.6% required respiratory support, with 23.6% making one or more trips to hospital.

Cluster 5: Confusion, skipped meals and severe fatigue. Of patients in this group 9.9% required respiratory support, with 24.6% making one or more trips to hospital.

Cluster 6: Marked respiratory distress including early onset of breathlessness and chest pain, as well as confusion, fatigue and gastrointestinal symptoms. Almost 20% of this group needed respiratory support and 45.5% made one or more visits to hospital. But this was the least common symptom cluster, affecting 167 participants.

The team said the first two clusters seem to be “milder” forms of Covid-19.

Similar groupings were found when the researchers repeated the work with data from 1,047 different app users, with the team adding headaches, and loss of smell and taste, which cropped up in all clusters, but the latter was longer lasting in milder cases.


Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: July 18, 2020, 03:48:41 PM »
How livable is the planet today? What is the Carrying Capacity? What would be the CC for a civilization using sustainable green technology? For a species living as the San people?

Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year.

In 2020, that date is August 22.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 18, 2020, 01:42:59 AM »
With CDC Out Of Data Collection, Some State Hospital Groups Can't Get COVID-19 Info

Just as the number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 approaches new highs in some parts of the country, hospital data in Kansas and Missouri is suddenly incomplete or missing.

The Missouri Hospital Association reports that it no longer has access to the data it uses to guide statewide coronavirus mitigation efforts, and the Kansas Hospital Association says its hospital data reports may be delayed.

... In an email, Missouri Hospital Association spokesperson Dave Dillon called the move "a major disruption."

"All evidence suggests that Missouri's numbers are headed in the wrong direction," Dillon wrote. "And, for now, we will have very limited situational awareness. That's all very bad news."

"It's hugely problematic," says Dr. Karen Maddox, a public health researcher at Washington University in St. Louis. "The only way that we know where things are going up and where things are going down and where we need to be putting resources and where we need to be planning is because of those data."

... In the wake of the announcement, the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services posted a notice on its website this week that the daily and weekly updates on hospitals, including the numbers of people hospitalized and the availability of standard hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, would be temporarily halted.

"Missouri Hospital Association (MHA) and the State of Missouri will be unable to access critical hospitalization data during the transition. While we are working to collect interim data, situational awareness will be limited," the notice, also on the MHA website, says.


White House Blocks CDC from Testifying On Reopening Schools Next Week

The White House is blocking US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield and other officials from the agency from testifying before a House Education and Labor Committee hearing on reopening schools next week, just as the debate over sending children back to classrooms has flared up across the US.

... House Education and Labor Chairman Bobby Scott said the testimony from CDC officials is critical to understanding how scientists would manage the reopening of US schools.

"It is alarming that the Trump administration is preventing the CDC from appearing before the Committee at a time when its expertise and guidance is so critical to the health and safety of students, parents, and educators," the Virginia Democrat said in a statement.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
Military Medics Deploy in California, Texas as Virus Surges

Teams of military medics were deployed in Texas and California to help hospitals deluged by coronavirus patients, as Miami area authorities on Friday began stepping up enforcement of a mask requirement - echoing efforts in many parts of the world to contain surging infections.

In California, military doctors, nurses and other healthcare specialists were being deployed to eight hospitals facing staffing shortages amid record-breaking case numbers. In Houston, an 86-person army medical team worked to take over a wing of United Memorial Medical Center.

There were signs elsewhere in the country's Sunbelt that the virus was stretching states' capacity to respond. The medical examiner's office in metro Phoenix has gotten portable storage coolers and ordered more to handle an influx of bodies - reminiscent of New York City at the height of the pandemic there earlier this year.

In Florida's Miami-Dade County, the county commission unanimously approved an emergency order giving all code and fire inspectors authority to issue tickets of up to $100 for individuals and $500 for businesses not complying with guidelines to wear masks and practice social distancing. Police officers already had this enforcement power.


US Military Arrives at Eisenhower Health in Rancho Mirage Amid Hospital's Staffing Shortage

... Dr. Alan Williamson, the hospital's chief medical officer and vice president of medical affairs, told ABC News earlier this week they're "close" to a breaking point.

As of late Thursday night, the intensive care unit was at capacity.


White House Document Shows 18 States in Coronavirus "Red Zone"

A document prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force but not publicized suggests more than a dozen states should revert to more stringent protective measures, limiting social gatherings to 10 people or fewer, closing bars and gyms and asking residents to wear masks at all times.

The document, dated July 14 and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, says 18 states are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases, meaning they had more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population last week. Eleven states are in the “red zone” for test positivity, meaning more than 10 percent of diagnostic test results came back positive.

The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.

The document has been shared within the federal government but does not appear to be posted publicly.

Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he thought the information and recommendations were mostly good.

“The fact that it’s not public makes no sense to me,” Jha said Thursday. “Why are we hiding this information from the American people? This should be published and updated every day.”

... In May, the World Health Organization recommended that governments make sure test positivity rates were at 5 percent or lower for 14 days before reopening. A COVID-19 tracker from Johns Hopkins University shows that 33 states were above that recommended positivity as of July 16.



Faced With Second Wave, Europe Tightens Virus Measures

Here is an overview of recent developments in each individual country, which include localised lockdowns and the obligation to wear face masks among others: ...

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: July 16, 2020, 09:23:42 PM »
USA High Tide Floods - NOAA report
2019 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding with a 2020 Outlook
NOAA tide gauges are measuring rapid changes in coastal flooding along U.S. coastlines due to
RSL rise. The most noticeable impact of RSL rise is the increasing frequency of HTF, whose
cumulative impacts are damaging to infrastructure and cause other economic impacts
(transportation delays, businesses closed, tourism impacts, etc.) in coastal communities. Thus,
HTF is of a growing concern to coastal residents, emergency managers, community planners and
resource managers. In response, NOAA will continue to provide not only projections for the
coming decades (e.g., Sweet et al., 2018) but also for the coming year to support planning and

The national median HTF occurrence was 4 days in 2019, and the trend continues to accelerate
(a nonlinear rise).The median number of HTF along U.S. coastlines was more than twice what it was in 2000 due to rising RSL,
  which nationally reached an all-time high of 0.34 m (1.1 ft) as
measured since 1920 (last 100 years). Currently HTF is affecting mostly U.S. East and Gulf
coastlines where annual HTF frequencies are upwards of twice the national rate. This is due to
relatively high rates of RSL rise (57 of 62 locations broke records in 2019), propensity for storm
surge/set up and flat and low-lying coastal elevations (Sweet and Park, 2014). Nineteen locations
broke or tied their all-time HTF records (median of 13 days) in 2019, including most locations
along the Texas coastline and at Miami, Savannah, Charleston and Annapolis to name a few. The
trend in annual frequencies of HTF is accelerating (increasing nonlinearly) in 75% of East and
Gulf Coast locations with most of the others linearly increasing. To put these records in
perspective, as an example, it took the first 58 years of operation (since 1921) of the NOAA tide
gauge in Charleston to record 13 HTFs; in 2019, it had that many alone.
Next year (May 2020–April 2021), acceleration in HTF and its impacts are expected to continue.
Near-neutral ENSO conditions are not likely to substantially affect the number of flood days.
Nationally, the median HTF outlook is 2–6 days (likely range). Regionally, the 2020 HTF
outlook is:
• 6–11 days along the Northeast Atlantic
• 5–11 days along the Western Gulf
• 3–6 days along the Southeast Atlantic
• 2–5 days along the Eastern Gulf
• 0–7 days along the Northwestern Pacific
• 0–3 days along the Southwestern Pacific

By 2030, the national HTF frequency is likely to increase about 2–3 fold (national median of 7–
15 days) compared to today without additional flood-management efforts.

By 2050, HTF is likely to be 5- to 15-fold higher (national median of 25–75 days),
and potentially in some locations reaching nearly 180 days per year, effectively becoming the
new high tide.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:30:44 PM »
At 5:29 a.m. on July 16, 1945, 75 years ago, the first nuclear bomb was tested at Trinity Site, in a New Mexico desert valley called Jornada del Muerto, or Journey of the Dead.

16 milliseconds after the beginning of the Anthropocene: The Trinity nuclear test.

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