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Messages - bluice

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 05, 2020, 02:02:40 PM »

1. There was no move from 4.65% mortality to 1%. It was 1% all along.
2. R has not changed materially since the new mutation
3. Where did you get the "10% monthly falloff rate"? All I read said that once you have immunity, you have immunity


"it is becoming apparent" means that it is obvious <that there is no acquired immunity>, but it is NOT obvious at all. Now you tweaked your original statment, saying that it may be possible that there is no long term immunity. But that is not what you originally said. It is a possibility, we do not know yet.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 05, 2020, 02:00:33 PM »
Elon Musk is now a fully-paid-up-card-carrying member of the super rich.

Remember when Google was "Do No Evil"? Now Google has an army of finance people dedicated to the proposition that very rich companies and the very rich people in them do not pay taxes. Taxes are for poor people.

How long before Elon Musk & Tesla join Google et al and become just another mega-giga-tera-corp run by the Masters of The Universe? I am sure moving to Texas is partly to move the business to a low-regulation / no-regulation environment. Meanwhile, since Tesla is the only EV manufacturer with sufficient critical mass to quickly move to EV mass production in the millions, it is the price that must be paid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 12:53:23 PM »
Сan see how quickly the large ice floe of fast ice 30 km in size disappears into the Laptev Sea.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 04, 2020, 06:35:06 PM »
Finally, we have a radar shot! \o/

1st one, the original. You can see the black ocean and the ice surface that's just as wet and black. Note just how black (and wet) the Humbold Glacier is too.

2nd one is a pimped version so you are able to see something at all.

Everything is completely in scrambles.

We have a complete week of (sometimes strong(ish)) northerly winds forecasted.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 05:21:42 PM »
Today's Worldview - I don't know the outcome if this area should get some kind of strong cyclone.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 02, 2020, 08:38:49 PM »
A social media company can scale as it grows. You start with one server and once the network effect kicks in, you scale up but by then you already have revenue.

Building cars is different, you need tooling, build up know-how, etc even before you can have your first revenue. Scaling here works very differently, you have to invest hugely beforehand.

Which might explain Tesla not to be solidly in the black numbers yet, wouldn't you agree, GSY?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 02, 2020, 07:47:52 AM »
The article below is from the Fryslân province in The Netherlands and what it means is that excess green electricity is going to waste because the grid cannot handle it.
I think GSY has a point.
Free translation of link: "Hold you horses. Grid operator Liander wants solar parks to stop delivering so much electrical energy"

From Frisian to English via Google Translate and me:
At present, there are so many companies that want to connect solar panels to the power grid that it can no longer have extra energy. "A few hundred solar parks and wind farms are on the waiting list, and that has to change" says Peter Hofland of grid operator Liander.

"At this point, the producers of green power have to deliver all the electricity to the grid, on the days when the sun shines brightest, but that's only a few days a year. All those other days it is not so, then there's plenty of room, "Hofland indicates.

What this means is that grid infrastructure is not able to cope with all the green electricity being put on the grid in the near future. Many solar parks and wind turbine parks are being build and planned but already the grid has problems on very sunny days.

Infrastructure is owned by private companies now almost everywhere and they have cut 'costs' such as maintenance, over capacity, redundancy, adapting to structural change necessary for different future (which is already here).

Soon very large wind turbine parks in the North Sea will start producing a massive amount of electrical energy that is going into transformer stations in Fryslân and/or Groningen that still have to be build and are in advanced planning phase. Once connected, these will massively overload the grid that is already having problems on very sunny days.

Perhaps they'll start a second grid for all those very high energy use luxury private motor-assisted transport vehicles? ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 08:24:05 AM »
VAK, while I appreciate your posts, you must remain on-topic in this thread. This discussion/speculation of ice shelves and lake snow effect belongs elsewhere. I will have to take more drastic measures if this continues.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 29, 2020, 12:44:16 PM »
I think there are certain respectable users who would be encouraged to post more if they had a blog-like thread rather than a free-for-all thread, and who would increase the overall value of the forum, though at some cost to free speech. But this depends on technical capabilities which I am guessing the forum doesn't have.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 29, 2020, 11:47:43 AM »
Over seven years of membership of ASIF, I've posted 55 times. (Up to the beginning of this year, it was only 18 posts.) That's because I'm here to learn, without the background knowledge to be able to say much. This year, there have been several threads where I felt I could offer a meaningful contribution - hence the tripling of my post count. The posts I'm really interested in are the ones which supply evidence, and those that make reasoned, professional commentary on that evidence.

As others have said, a few posters like to jump in with pet  theories, and then stay for endless arguments about them. Normally I scroll through these, but it does take time that many professionals don't have.

I don't know the details of Simple Machines Forum software, but I've been involved with similar in the past. Is there any function for making certain threads "read only except by invitation"? If so, a thread like "2020 Sea Ice area and extent data" could be split into:

2020 Sea Ice area and extent - data (read only)
2020 Sea Ice area and extent - discussion

In the first thread, posting would be restricted to those people who have proved that they can provide facts, and discuss them in a sound, sensible manner. The second thread, open to all, would be for everyone and everything else. Extra work for admin and moderators, but it would cut down on the number of complaints, and provide a clean "reference" thread for scientific professionals or journalists who want to look up the facts.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 26, 2020, 10:25:10 PM »

did its monthly update yesterday, but still very much pre-covid19 and early covid19 data, apart from some petroleum (oil) data that is up to May.
The first graph shows monthly totals of the major fossil fuels analysed by heat content. NB. these are simple monthly totals, NOT 12 month trailing averages. For me the main points are..
- Natural Gas consumption in March did fall, but very much in the normal seasonal pattern,
- Petroleum products supplied dropped sharply in April, but with a partial recovery in May.
- Coal was king, and is now the beggar at the feast. We may hope that one result of covid is its accelerated decline.

The second graph is USA Primary energy consumption by source - the 12 month trailing average. Oil & Gas rule the roost. Crowing about coal plants shutting needs to be put into perspective.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 26, 2020, 01:43:09 PM »
Meet the OTOT thread where you can discuss all your favorite psychological theories:,2995.0.html

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: June 23, 2020, 11:45:40 PM »
Any building on or near the water faces challenges from the sea that those built further inland do not.  In low lying countries, like Bangladesh, this is a major issue.  This is not a major issue in Africa, due to the locations of the population, higher waterfront grounds, and lack of major oceanic storms.

Not a major issue i Africa? The data says the reverse ...

Sea-Level Rise: West Africa Is Sinking
The western coast of Africa, stretching more than 6500km from Mauritania to Cameroon, is in peril. Caused by global warming, rising sea levels are causing massive erosion — in some places eating away more than 30 metres of land in a single year. 

Sea levels are expected to rise by more than 76 cm around the world by the end of this century, but they are expected to rise faster than the global average in west Africa, where the coastal areas host about one-third of the region’s population and generate 56% of its GDP. A recent World Bank study shows that flooding and coastal erosion due to sea-level rise cost the region about $3.8 billion and cause 13,000 deaths in just one year. 

Ghana — the fastest growing economy in the world — is among the worst affected countries in the region. Coastal erosion at its 580km coastline comprising of sandy beaches and outcrops has consumed areas like Keta, Ada, and Shama. Rising temperatures have triggered the migration of fish stocks while salinisation has contaminated farmlands and freshwater reserves affecting the livelihoods of millions of fishermen and farmers. Frequent inundation has led to the destruction of commercial buildings, houses, and even human lives.

Once a thriving trading hub, Ghana’s Keta city has suffered massive coastal erosion in recent decades that forced more than half of the population to flee. Fuveme — a coastal village in Keta that lies between the Gulf of Guinea and the Keta Lagoon — has already been reduced to an island forcing thousands of families to migrate to the inland.

Senegal, another west African country, has been witnessing the devastating effects of sea-level rise this decade. The country’s famous colonial city Saint-Louis — a UNESCO World Heritage site with a population of 300,000 people — is seeing houses destroyed, streets flooded, and crops damaged by the encroaching saltwater.

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, too has low lying cities that are being destroyed by the sea. Its most populous city Lagos, a megacity located next to the Atlantic Ocean, consists of a mainland and a series of islands with an estimated population of 21 million. A large number of city residents who live on waterfront slums with no proper drainage or water systems have been suffering due to rising sea levels as their dwellings get flooded frequently.

Other west African countries such as Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, and Togo face a high rate of coastal erosion. A World Bank study reveals that 56% of the coastline in these countries has been eroding 2 metre per year. Damages from the sea-level rise cost the government of Cote d’Ivoire nearly $2 billion — 4.9% of its GDP, while it cost the Benin government $229 million — 2.5% of the country’s GDP.,villages%2C%20decimating%20dwellings%20and%20farmlands.&text=The%20western%20coast%20of,to%20Cameroon%2C%20is%20in%20peril.

and if you want more..
Sea level rise impact on African coastal zones

The African coastal zone, most of which is very low-lying, consists of the West, Central, East and Mediterranean coastal zones. Within these coastal zones are many cities: Dakar, Abidjan, Accra, Lagos, Dar es Salaam, Alexandria, Tripoli and Tunis. These coastal cities are characterized by teeming populations, industries, dense transportation and communication networks as well as extensive coast-based tourist resorts. At present, widespread erosion and flooding are devastating vast areas along the African coastline, causing severe ecological problems as well as creating a high level of misery for the people. A rise in sea level of say one metre, which in many places may be accentuated by the phenomenon of subsidence, would aggravate the already existing ecological problems through increased rates of coastal erosion, more persistent flooding, loss of wetlands, increased salinization of groundwater and soil as well as greater influx of diverse pollutants.

Other socio-economic impacts include uprooting human settlements, dislodging port and navigational facilities, upsetting coastal fishery as well as coast-based tourism. These adverse effects would impose unbearable pressure on the already hard-pressed African economy. This then calls for the establishment of coastal management policies including a phased disengagement from the coast, where practicable, and enforcement of set back lines. In already built-up areas, the use of low-cost, low-technology erosion and flood defense measures are advocated.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 23, 2020, 02:27:40 PM »
Well, this online community is doing a darn fine job.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: June 22, 2020, 03:54:58 PM »
The 2020s may be the decade of Sea Level Rise. But, if so, it will be the decade of SLR AND heat waves, wild fires, and...

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 22, 2020, 12:11:48 AM »
I think there is a sealion swimming around our forums.

I learned about them from following Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt on Twitter.

It is annoying as hell, and disruptive to the members who want to have honest discourse.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 21, 2020, 06:02:38 PM »
So Tulsa has volunteered as another Petri dish for Red hats without masks. Next volunteers ?
How about if the” fake news “ just doesn’t report on the results ? Give them the silence they apparently
prefer.  .
Where is Inhofe anyway? Couldn’t he do a mask burning on the Senate floor ? WHAT ARE THE
 Their denial is killing people but in this case they are killing their own people . The denial of global warming is almost universal in the group of people who attended that rally.
 I know I am stepping over the line but we should encourage them in their ignorance. Some brave liberals could attend the rallies and wear masks as bikini tops, mock those who wear them and lay bait for fools . Sometimes the only way to get through to someone is to take their own bullshit to a new extreme. 
Careful , they are armed and apparently have organized lately to burn down your cities when chaos allows. 

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 21, 2020, 05:00:09 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 21, 2020, 02:50:49 PM »
We’ve had similar reports in Finland. Apologies for not having it in English but please try and translate it
Google translate dunnit.....

Extensive study on corona's aftermath is launched - "The patient group in the intensive care unit has been truly exceptional"
Coronary patients in intensive care have experienced severe confusion, nightmares, and hallucinations during the recovery phase.

The Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District is launching an extensive study of the after-symptoms caused by the coronavirus.

The study invites 100 to 150 patients who have been on intensive care due to severe coronavirus infection. The aim is to map their recovery from a serious illness on a large scale.

The study involves taking blood samples, measuring lung function and physical performance, and includes extensive neuropsychological testing, olfactory screening, and magnetic resonance imaging of some of the head.

In addition to intensive care coronary patients, the study aims to be compared to about 50 patients treated in a hospital ward whose disease was not so severe as to require intensive care, and about 50 people with coronary at home who tested positive for a corona test.

In addition to the study, all coronary patients in intensive care would be welcome to visit the after-care clinic, as people should be able to discuss their experiences, says HUS specialist Johanna Hästbacka .

- The patient group in the intensive care unit has been really exceptional, the treatment times have been very long and the patients are extremely ill. Relatives have not been able to see them throughout their hospital stay, the symptoms have been so strange that they are not recognized by doctors, and they have also had a very common diagnosis of interest. Chewing these alone at home is probably a pretty big stress issue for patients.

In coronary patients, confusion, nightmares, and hallucinations
Hästbacka says that the after-care clinic in the intensive care unit has been in operation at HUS for ten years. Patients who have been in intensive care for more than five days have been invited there.

After a period of intensive care, many people report very troublesome symptoms, and according to Hästbacka, they have been particularly common in coronary patients.

- Coronary patients in particular have experienced really severe confusion, nightmares and hallucinations related to intensive care or corona during the recovery phase. For all these reasons, treatments may have been prolonged. I think it would be important for coronary patients in intensive care to be able to resolve these issues. We could help them and refer you to rehabilitation if needed. Often, discussing and lyricizing already awkward experiences and symptoms can be helpful.

From the post-outpatient data accumulated over a period of ten years, it is known that intensive care patients have a lot of abnormal fatigue, difficulty concentrating and mood problems for a couple of months after treatment.

- The symptoms may sound a bit vague and if you go to the health center to complain about them, you may not know how to combine the symptoms with intensive care, which is quite consuming. It involves heavy treatments and medications that can cause problems.

Many patients with corona have experienced vague prolonged symptoms. Symptoms have also been reported to fluctuate so that sometimes the symptoms disappear and come in a week, two to come back again. Hästbacka thinks the symptom sounds worrying.

- Probably in a year or two we will be wiser and understand why. Whether it is a defensive reaction in the body or reactivation of the virus. After all, this is a truly exceptional virus that has caused a wide variety of symptoms and organ disorders. In addition to a severe lung reaction, there is apparently some kind of vasculitis that can cause a wide variety of symptoms from different organ systems, and then these nervous system symptoms.

Letters of invitation to the study will be sent to the post office in mid-July.

More on this topic:

Hundreds of people suffering from prolonged coronary symptoms - "It is very important that long-term effects are monitored," says THL's chief physician

Exhaustion, fever and lack of sense of smell - in patients with severe coronary heart disease, late symptoms can last for weeks or even months

Latest information on the coronavirus: one new infection in Finland, restaurant restrictions lifted from tomorrow, more than 50,000 coronary deaths in Brazil

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 17, 2020, 05:48:46 PM »
Jens, Hierarchical and wealth accumulation were the direct result of storage of crops as agriculture provided excesses that could be hoarded. Food stores provided incentive for raiding neighbors and
strong men and hierarchy resulted.
 When we roam free again mobility will limit hoarding. Hoarding will invite raids so living lean will have benefits not inferred under civil society.
 Civilization and hunter gatherer societies don’t coexist . We as civilized humans don’t know the benefits of a system we have spent 10,000 years trying to destroy.
Some food sources like acorns are easy to collect and difficult to process so stealing them doesn’t make any sense.  We are so far removed from the old systems before agriculture that we can’t really compare the positives and negatives .

How about we limit wealth to zero or to what you can carry on your back ?  Civilization was an experiment that is dying . Good riddance. Our comfort was far overrated.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 17, 2020, 03:28:46 PM »
Howdy folks,

Just to let you know, I'm back in the operator's chair here in Alert for another few months (likely until mid-October).  This will be my final tour in Alert, sadly, but I'll try to prod the next operator into logging in occasionally!

I saw plenty of ponding going on out the window of the plane on my flight up yesterday (we generally fly straight up the Nares), things are starting to melt quickly!

An excellent, and balanced, discussion of what the rise of China means.

"What China Will Be Like As A Great Power" : Martin Jacques Keynote (32nd Annual Camden Conference)

Some real stand out statistics that he mentions:
- China forecast to become 34% of global GDP (at purchasing power parity) in 2030, versus 20% now
- India forecast to become 19% of global GDP (PPP) in 2030, versus 8% now.

- US forecast to become 15% of global GDP (PPP) in 2030, versus 15% now.
- EU28 to become 13% of global GDP (PPP) in 2030, versus 16% now

What happens in China and India (and other fast growing nations such as Indonesia) will be many times more important for climate change than what happens in the EU28 and the US, over the next decade.
And is China's march to sole superpower status to be achieved in a sustainable eco-friendly etc etc manner,  or is there a faint chance that this is the Long March to oblivion?

And does this well-balanced etc etc discourse consider the fate of our increasingly unhappy  planet at all? If it does not, then well-balanced his discourse is not.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 10, 2020, 10:20:57 PM »
I am a bit skeptical. So lets say all the regular posters use killfiles. Cleans threads up for them but it still leaves the original mess. It might reduce comments on OT comments but it does not get rid of them.

The main rule is really simple. Ice data thread is about ice data, melting season thread is about is what is going on in the Arctic at the moment not your fucking pet theory.

The rest is less important.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 09, 2020, 09:41:27 PM »
All it takes is 1 blind ego to overshadow a forum.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 09, 2020, 05:59:24 PM »
I doubt there's much permafrost at sea level in Norway. My guess is a landslide caused by high precipitation or snow melt.

Most likely, you're right. Precipitation washing out salt ions in the clay, resulting in reduced strength. Once it starts breaking, it will inevitably continue.
Quite an accessible explanation is given at

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:23:30 PM »
PIG is no longer attached to the Northern Ice Sheet (NIS) and Southwest Tributary (SWT) 
I find the gravity of the changes to be quite overwhelming. All should take a moment to reflect on the above and its implications.

Consequences / Re: World of 2100
« on: June 08, 2020, 08:56:00 PM »
Extrapolate Covid-19 out of the variables at hand in September 2019.

 :P ;)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 01, 2020, 08:03:28 PM »
In Norway this is ALL for free! And we take this for granted, paying our taxes more or less willingly. Despite this we Even survive and have handled this Corona-era fairly well. 

Personally I struggle to find any ups about living in the Promised land these days. But what do I know, being an European!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 31, 2020, 01:14:32 PM »
It's completely idiotic, Neven. Sorry, but you asked.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 27, 2020, 11:40:46 AM »
I think the best method to show the long term acceleration is to make an animation of the whole front with a proportional timescale, for example 1 or 2 or 4 images per month, over the last 10 years or so.
If images are not available from certain times, one can double the previous image, so as to maintain the sense of time.
I have seen several such animations on Twitter (Steff Lhermite for example) but they do not cover the final acceleration this year. The best animation would be rather large, rather slow, and have a pause at the end, to enable the viewer to take in the developments. A date or year counter would be quite helpful. Animation should be fixed to grid, not to any moving point. This will enable the viewer to follow the gradual dance of forward movement and calving, the net of which is the retreat.
I am not doing this myself unfortunately due to severe lack of time (and abilities), but if anyone is able and willing it would be much appreciated.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 27, 2020, 11:16:09 AM »
As I said in my post of May 24th:
"The south side is the most unstable. I thought it was interesting to follow the dismemberment of the SW-ZD, since it provided a small aid to the MIS, not as a pinning point, but by shearing, and I thought that by staying in place for a little while it would have helped to slow down the retreat of the MIS. One can only conclude that her support to the MIS is clearly insufficient and that the MIS tensions are tearing its southern side apart without hindrance.  Beyond the existing rifts we can expect the birth of new rifts further upstream, with downstream clearances leaving the upstream parts unprotected. And I'm afraid this will continue until we reach the next upstream pinning point, we've already discussed. And the SW-ZD? Now is only a secondary actor following events and it has lost much of its interest to me."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:17:31 AM »
Oren, congrats on being the new moderator! I tried to get you to do it last year, and you and Neven shut me down.

Anyway, you are doing a terrific job moderating in a fair way. I got so frustrated over the melting thread last year that I just quit contributing.  I think others might have too.

However, I always lurk to see what Friv and others are saying.

Thank you for your terrific work in moderating these forums.  The melting season has just begun, and things will get crazy.  But, I can once again read the forums without getting pissed off over the nonsense.

Thanks again,
A Lurker.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 26, 2020, 12:13:17 AM »
People should read Andrew Simms 'Ecological Debt' (or any of dozens of other well-researched books that document the massive theft of wealth from Africa and elsewhere by Europe and the US, and related issues) before embarrassing themselves further, imvho   :)

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 25, 2020, 08:49:29 PM »
How do you define overpopulation anyway? In nature it is the carrying capacity of the system. With humans this is different.

It is a developmental problem. Way back in the nineties aardrijkskunde/geography we had two theories. One said that areas would progress from simple production to more complicated processes. The other was the center periphery theory were the centre controls the periphery and that is more like the world we ended up with. Basically we never stopped exploiting Africa. See Moneyland for some examples.

Subsaharan africa does not follow the general trend but they never had reliable countries either so then you are back to family.

The african overpopulation is basically eurocentric BS. We just got there first and killed most of our forests long ago.

This is the 21st century. We have one planet and we are all one. It is disingenious to worry about african overpopulation while american  mining operations keep spewing methane (and russia and SA etc).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 08:38:07 PM »

Edited post.

Conclude away, mate.  :P ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 08:29:08 AM »
the areas of the Arctic likely to retain ice at the minimum (CAB, CAA and Beaufort).
Get your numbers straight. The areas most likely to retain ice at minimum are the CAB, the CAA and the Greenland Sea. Of the 8 years in the AMSR2 record, 5 had near-zero ice area in the Beaufort in early Sept, the rest had 150k-200k. The ESS had 3 years with 150k-250k, 3 years with 50k, and only 2 at near-zero. The Laptev is also sometimes a contributor, and even the Kara and Barents with some small amounts.
Later I will calculate average contributions to the Sept area minimum, of course you can do that yourself by downloading the file from Wipneus.

Moderator Note: everybody understands your theory by now, you don't need to post so many posts defending it, unless new data comes up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 02:42:28 AM »

By your logic, 2013 should have been a blow-out, as thickness and over-all volume were massacred at the end of 2012. 
You are clearly not fully understanding the logic, so I'll try to explain it for you by comparing 2012, 2013 and 2020 (which is a work in progress).

The logic is that the outcome of a melt season in the form of a minimum is a function of three things. 1) The previous season minimum, 2) The previous freezing season and 3) The melting season.

Looking at factor #1. All three of these years began on the foundation of a low previous minimum (2011 was the lowest volume prior to 2012).

Factor #2 - Of the three, the 2011-12 freezing season was by far the weakest. The 2012-13 freezing season was characterized by an outstanding recovery in sea ice. So there is no logic there supporting a low 2013 minimum. The 2019-20 freezing season was cold relative to the average of

Factor #3 - The wonders of the 2012 melt season have been well written here, no need to rehash. 2013 was meh, hence the outcome. 2020 remains to be seen.

Preconditioning and weather are more critical to the melt season's progress than the modest increase in volume which may have been gained.

I agree that the preconditioning and weather are important to the melt seasons (Factor 3) progress. I am merely arguing that Factor 2 (freezing season) is also important to the season ending minimum.

The additional ice won't be enough to off-set the increase in heat budget we are seeing, presuming weather continues on in the dismal trend it is currently following.

We'll see what the weather holds.

Continental snow pack has been smashed, especially in Eurasia, and the Siberian Arctic coast increase in temperatures are astonishing.

Yes. It is bloody hot in Siberia. The Kara, Laptev and ESS are going to get an early season roasting. But getting heat from Siberia to the areas of the Arctic likely to retain ice at the minimum (CAB, CAA and Beaufort) is not so obvious. 2012 had some very novel mechanisms for bringing heat to the surface of these regions in the form of the Mackenzie River discharge event and the GAC. These are not events which can be predicted to reoccur in 2020 and that's a long,long way for warm air advection.

I think we are seeing late June ice conditions moving up to late May. 

I assume you are referring to a forecast and not present conditions.

I can see that what the experts here are kindly trying to make you understand is that factor #1 is a 5%, factor #2 is a 15% and factor #3 (melting season weather) is an 80%.
2013 weather was not meh, it was the reason of the rebound that year, just as 2017, a year with a low 2016 volume, #1, and record low volume past Winter, factor #2 but a pretty late summer #3.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:09:06 PM »
BTW, the last frame in Baking's GIF (#2200) might be shot mid-calving. Fascinating!


Stopping deforestation and allowing forests to regrow could sequester 120 PgC between 2016 and 2100.  120 billion tons in 84 years is 1.4 billion tons per year, or about half of what is required.

Yes. And stopping shooting other people would end all wars.

Meanwhile in the real world:

"Between 2015 and 2020, the rate of deforestation was estimated at 10 million hectares per year, down from 16 million hectares per year in the 1990s. The area of primary forest worldwide has decreased by over 80 million hectares since 1990."

See also:

Title: "Deforestation boosts Brazil greenhouse gas emissions as global emissions fall"

Extract: "Brazil could produce 10-20% more climate-warming gases in 2020 due to deforestation and farming as compared to the most recent data from 2018, a new study said on Thursday, while emissions globally have dropped this year as the new coronavirus pandemic paralyzes society."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 22, 2020, 05:42:08 PM »
I just wanted to pull that detail out.  IFR right now is about 0.05% assuming everyone in the UK has been infected already and no one else will die.

If IFR is 0,05% then 40 million people out of a total of 8,6  million in NYC were infected.

(since they had cca 20000 dead, which is 0,25% of the population)

...she should be reading this forum, we settled on cca 1% a month ago :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 17, 2020, 10:26:23 PM »
The models still bring a quasi-dipole post day 7.

But have pushed back the arrival of the development of the ridge a couple days.

Even then the WAA is dependent On the development of a decently strong vortex.

The issue which has been the same issue since 2013 is the large +AO/+NAO that blows up centered on GIS and the Eastern CAA/NE mainland Canada.

It is more and more apparent that 05, 07-12 was highly HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.

now granted this only goes out to May 27th.

It's still disappointing.  People can argue why do I want to see arctic death.

Well it's inevitable and exciting

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: May 16, 2020, 11:18:24 AM »
I suspect we kicked the can down the road at least two decades too long.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: May 16, 2020, 09:35:38 AM »
Latest forecast is down 11% in USA CO2 emissions

"After decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 11% (572 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19. CO2 emissions decline from all fossil fuels, particularly coal (23%) and petroleum (11%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. "
A complete disruption of the world's financial & economic systems including mass unemployment results in perhaps an 8% drop in CO2 emissions.

So how the hell is the world going to manage a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 05:32:34 PM »
Can someone explain to me why Jordan and Lebanon are listed as  COUNTRIES BEATING COVID-19 on that site?

Not exactly sure, but I suspect that it is because the numbers are so low that any randomness looks like a spike.  Lebanon has had two deaths this month and Jordan only one.  In fact, Jordan is one of the few countries with a death rate of less than one per million.  Andorra is on that site with a death rate of over 600 per million. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 13, 2020, 05:40:06 AM »
I said something about it yesterday and I'm not trying to be rude but who cares what the Euro or the GFS say about surface temps.

It's totally moot when we have an almost cloudless basin which is almost impossible to find anytime of year.

The only thing that matters right now is preconditioning of the basin surface how fast the land snow melts.

The GFS is probably too warm.

But the ESS and laptev gave been above 0C because the surface is wet.

This is so unprecedented.  This surface darkening didn't happen in 2012 until the 6th-12th of JUNE!







Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 01:38:05 PM »
Surface temps N of 80N stay close to zero because they are far away from the big heated rocks of Siberia and NA. That's why the ice remains there at the September minimum. Transporting enough heat over long distance to the surface of the CAB ice is not a trivial matter.

Always interesting to read new theories of physics and meteorology in this forum.

I wonder why people think that the landmasses of Alaska and Sibera are more significant sources of heat in summer, than are the open ocean areas surrounding the ice. The open ocean absorbs much more solar energy than does dry land, has a much higher heat capacity, and has the ability to move the heat to the ice directly rather than going through the ethereal media of air.

Without the landmasses surrounding the Arcitic Ocean, I'd guess that the ice would disappear every summer. If there was no Antarctic Continent and just open ocean on the South Pole, it would lose all it''s ice every summer (methinks). It's the presence of the vast Antartic landmass that maintains the antarctic sea ice, and the same can be said for the Arctic Ocean, the ice survives by sheltering behind the landmass of America in particular, Siberia to a lesser extent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice
« on: May 10, 2020, 02:11:02 PM »
The Lena River, Olyokminsk. Current melting is slightly earlier than in 2019. The Yenisei River stuck for a while but the earliest breakup in Dudinka is still possible (before May 21).

There is a statue of the Lena in Olyokminsk.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 09:50:50 AM »
The reason that this thread has been somewhat derailed is that most of the science is close to final

- We know that IFR is 0,5-1,5% depending on healthcare and age
- We know furthermore that mortality is very much age dependent, cca 5-10% for above 75, 1-3% for 60-70, and below 0,1% for under 45/50.
- We also know that comorbidities increase mortality at least 2-3 times and very few healthy die of this disease (but of course some do)
- We know that European quarantines reduced R(t) to 0,6-0,9 from an original 2,5-4 (in China they went as low as 0,4-0,5)
- We know that it takes an average of 2-3 weeks and often more to die of COVID
- We know that once you are infected you need to be quarantined for at least two weeks to stop viral shedding
- We know that earlier antibody tests are very unreliable especially if you want to know the number of infected in that population but only a small percentage of the population has been infected
- The biggest known unknown is how long immunity lasts

But we now know most everything we need to know , so not much remains other than quarelling :)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 12:42:13 AM »
I am getting somewhat tired of this. Almost every time a new fact is posted in this scientific thread on this scientific forum ( e.g. a dangerous but rare condition affects some children) someone starts ranting about fear mongering and Trump and the media and what have you. Surprisingly that someone is the respected admin who taught us so diligently not to derail threads and not engage in meta-discussions... can't this be discussed elsewhere? Leave this thread for science.  What is the R? The IFR? Do lockdowns make a difference? Does reopening make a difference? What do models say? What is the disease progress or decline in various countries? What various policies are enacted?
E.g. Do you think IFR is lower and flu-like? Post statistics models and estimates supporting this. Is anyone on this thread fear mongering? Report them to moderator! Will the disease affect Trump reelection? Discuss in the politics section. Do Trump's policies affect disease progression? Discuss here. Massive transfer of wealth? Discuss in the COVID economics thread. But for heaven's sake please let this thread breathe a little.

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