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Messages - nanning

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1
Correction Re: Greta's Handler

In my Post #99 on Sept. 1, I published a photo (first attached below) and hastily intimated that Greta had a "handler" present with her.  After further research, it is most likely that the woman to Greta's left is actually a fairly mature-looking 14-yr old Alexandria Villasenor and definitely not Greta's handler.  (See second attached photo below; Alexandria's wiki page.)  I regret this mistake.

That being said, I remain entirely vigilant to the persons, handlers and forces who would attempt to co-opt, control, and/or completely silence Greta's message.  People who drive 5 million USD sailboats are NOT the good guys.

So two more weeks of NYC excitement.   And then...?  Everybody stay frosty.

2
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: Today at 05:43:41 PM »
^
Bruce: That seems like a reasonable hypothesis.

The kill-chain appears to be a mosaic - acidification, hypoxia, heatwave, starvation & disease. The ecosystem is resilient against individual variables but it can't withstand simultaneous insults like that.

Things are also washing up on the other coast.

----------------

Summer of Blob: Maine Sees More Big, Stinging Jellyfish
https://phys.org/news/2019-09-summer-blob-maine-big-jellyfish.html

The Gulf of Maine and some of its beaches, ever popular with tourists, have recorded a high number of sightings of a big jellyfish that has the ability to sting swimmers and occasionally does.

The lion's mane jellyfish, the largest known variety, can grow to five or more feet across, with tentacles more than 100 feet long.

Such giant jellyfish are uncommon, but beachgoers say larger than average ones have been exceptionally plentiful this year in the gulf, which touches Maine, two other states and two Canadian provinces.

... Jellyfish are tracked each summer by Nick Record, a senior research scientist at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences in East Boothbay, Maine. Typically fewer than half the jellyfish reported are lion's manes. This year, almost all of several hundred jellyfish observed were the lion's mane variety.

If there are more large lion's mane jellyfish, Record said one possible reason is that the Gulf of Maine is warming faster than most of the world's oceans, and the jellyfish can grow faster in warmer water.

3
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: Today at 05:30:02 PM »
Facing a possible Climate Apocalypse: How should we live? (commentary)
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/facing-a-possible-climate-apocalypse-how-should-we-live-commentary/
Quote
We live today under threat of Climate Apocalypse. But two world wars, genocides, the Bomb and untold suffering around the globe reported daily have all perhaps dulled our senses and our resolve; resulted in elders – especially our leaders – failing to face humanity’s ultimate existential crisis.
More than 30 years after the Climate Emergency was publicly declared by climatologist James Hansen, disasters multiply – record heat, drought, deluge, rising seas. But climate change deniers hold sway in the U.S. and abroad, with almost no nations on Earth on target to achieve their deeply inadequate Paris Agreement goals.
Now an even higher imperative has emerged, as new studies point not just to escalating risk, but toward potential doom. Understandingly, young people are angry and openly rebelling against their elders. The young point to a failure to act, and declare: there is no time for politics and business as usual. They’re right.
Humanity’s only way out – the path to saving civilization, and much of life on Earth – is to act as though our lives, and our children’s lives, depend on it. Because they do. And one more thing: we mustn’t give up hope. This post is a commentary. Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily Mongabay.

4
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: Today at 05:29:14 PM »
Vox-Mundi , C-CAN (Calif. Current Acidification Network) will be hosting a talk by Dave Hutchins on the increased toxicity of pseudo nitzschia when exposed to both acidification and ocean heating. The domoic acid produced has caused fishery shutdowns , bird and marine mammal dieoffs . The Blob in 2014 ,and the heat produced, magnified the severity of damage produced by pseudo nitzschia blooms.
 I have a theory that disease should be an expected result of stress caused by , acidification, hypoxia and ocean heatwaves. We saw shellfish dieoffs of abalone, urchins, starfish, and other invertebrates in ocean heatwaves associated with the 1981-82 and 1997-98 El Niño’s and the 2014-2016 ocean heatwave here in the Calif. Current Ecosystem. Stress as a driver and disease as the kill mechanism.

https://c-can.info/c-can-oar-18-september-2019/

5
The Climate Crisis Is Poised to Make Huge Swaths of America Totally Uninsurable
https://www.thedailybeast.com/climate-redlining-could-soon-make-millions-of-us-homes-totally-uninsurable?ref=home
Quote
“People are going to be trapped because once it’s uninsurable, good luck selling the house,” one climate expert cautioned.

6
Thousands of climate protesters target Frankfurt auto show
https://www.dw.com/en/thousands-of-climate-protesters-target-frankfurt-auto-show/a-50435008
Quote
Tens of thousands of climate demonstrators turned up to protest at Germany's biggest car show in Frankfurt on Saturday, using the event as a platform to demand the car industry address its role in damaging the environment.

How do Kiwis really feel about climate change?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12267160
Quote
More Kiwis are worried about climate change. What's been driving that concern? And why do some of us still refuse to accept the scientific consensus? Science reporter Jamie Morton talks to Victoria University's Associate Professor Taciano Milfont, who has been tracking attitudes over time.

Pittsburgh’s city government says it’s on track to meet climate goals in public operations. But what about the rest of the city?
https://www.publicsource.org/pittsburghs-city-government-says-its-on-track-to-meet-climate-goals-in-public-operations-but-what-about-the-rest-of-the-city/
Quote
The next steps to meeting the emissions reduction goal is targeting the biggest buildings and energy used by people at home.

'Americans are waking up': two thirds say climate crisis must be addressed
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/sep/15/americans-climate-change-crisis-cbs-poll
Quote
Two-thirds of Americans believe climate change is either a crisis or a serious problem, with a majority wanting immediate action to address global heating and its damaging consequences, major new polling has found.

7
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: Today at 05:23:05 PM »
Related to: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,622.msg226497.html#msg226497

and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2452.msg228920.html#msg228920

---------------------

Rare Weather Event Over Antarctica Driving Australia's Hot, Dry Outlook
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-06/rare-weather-event-over-antarctica-drives-hot-outlook/11481498

A rare event that took place 30 kilometres above the South Pole last week is expected to impact upon Australia's rainfall outlook.



The upper atmosphere above Antarctica warmed by as much as 40 degrees Celsius in the course of a few days — and it is continuing to warm.

This rare phenomenon, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), could deepen one of the worst droughts in Australian history.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Harry Hendon warned of dry weather ahead.

"We will typically see conditions across most of Australia, but primarily concentrated in the eastern part of Australia, become warmer and drier through spring and into early summer," Dr Hendon said.

SSW is rare in the southern hemisphere with only one major event ever identified, in 2002 — one of Australia's driest years on record.


2002 Rainfall Anomalies

Dr Hendon said similar, less intense stratospheric warmings had been linked to other dry years in Australia.

"In the past 30 years we probably have had five or six occurrences that didn't quite qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming," he said.

... Sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica causes westerly winds south of Australia to track further north, a pattern meteorologists refer to as a 'negative SAM'.

In spring and summer, this negative SAM pattern brings warmer, drier air into southern Queensland and New South Wales.

"We looked at what happened over that period and we're pretty confident that we will see an increase in temperatures and a decrease in rainfall in central-eastern Australia in the following months."



"Unfortunately, these are areas already in drought," said a lead author of the BOM's spring climate outlook, Andrew Watkins.

Dr Watkins said cooler than normal water in the Indian Ocean, a phenomenon meteorologists call a 'positive IOD', has led to a lack of moisture drifting over the continent.



"This has certainly been a big factor in why winter has been so dry in virtually all of Australia," he said

On top of that, we have the likelihood of prolonged periods of negative SAM, which also brings drier conditions to New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Dr Watkins said the impact of the SSW may be felt in Australia through to the end of the year.

"These sudden stratospheric warming events and the patterns that we see from them can go from September [to] October, sometimes persisting through to January," he said.

8
Only 7% of the questions at ABC's Democratic primary debate were about climate change
https://www.mediamatters.org/broadcast-networks/only-7-questions-abcs-democratic-primary-debate-houston-were-about-climate
Quote
Discussion of the climate crisis and solutions to address it have thus far been lacking in Democratic presidential primary debates. Climate change was the topic of 9.5% of questions during the two-night debate hosted by CNN on July 30 and 31. During the two-night debate hosted by NBC in late June, less than 6% of the questions were about climate.

9
Not just Greta:
Green with rage: Women climate change leaders face online attacks
https://theconversation.com/green-with-rage-women-climate-change-leaders-face-online-attacks-123155
Quote
Women leaders who support climate action are being attacked online with increasing regularity. These attacks should be viewed as a problem not only for the planet, but also to the goals of achieving gender equality and more inclusive, democratic politics.

Teen activist Greta Thunberg takes her youth climate campaign to Washington
https://beta.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/09/13/teen-activist-greta-thunberg-takes-her-youth-climate-campaign-washington/
Quote
Before her latest strike, in front of the White House on Friday, Thunberg sat for an interview with The Washington Post. She spoke about how the climate debate is different in the United States, whether she considers herself an optimist and how she approaches the criticism that has accompanied her meteoric rise over the past year.

10
Climate deniers go after AOC, Greta Thunberg with sexist attacks

Why do i have to share a planet with such scumbags?

Must have been a very very evil worm in a former life...

11
Antarctica / Re: SH Polar Vortex
« on: Today at 04:48:14 PM »
Current S Pole 10 hPa & 30 hPa temps.

gif showing development of the SSW - note  movement of centre of main main vortex to the Weddell Sea - click to play

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 03:40:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,932,327 km2


The 2019 Minimum Has Passed?- the data won't say no, it won't say yes.

On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by another 10 k,
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 10k (and again a new minimum, 77k below the previous on 4th Sep), JAXA extent LOSS 20 k (again a new minimum)

                        
Total Area         
 2,932,327    km2      
-225,901    km2   <   2010's average.
-359,209    km2   <   2018
-1,156,549    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    -    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area loss 10 k, 39 k different from the 2010's average area gain of 29 k on this day,
- Total area 3rd Lowest, 139 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 684 k MORE than 2012 (15 September was the 2012 minimum) ,
- Area is 22 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
Not a clue

We are now, on average, beyond the end of the season of area & extent losses.

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open, both at new minimums.

13
Misogyny, meet hypocrisy: Climate deniers go after AOC, Greta Thunberg with sexist attacks
https://cnnews9.com/2019/08/31/misogyny-meet-hypocrisy-climate-deniers-go-after-aoc-greta-thunberg-with-sexist-attacks-salon/

14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 03:12:56 PM »
Holy cow, that's a lot of export! 😳

Confined to the right side of the floating direction, so in my assumption, this is not only wind-driven but an actual surface current (as modeled by Mercator - see post above).

Now the question is i guess, has the wind caused the current? Fact is, the wind was stronger in the south end of the channel. Perhaps it caused some kind of undertow.

If so, is this the kickstart for a persistent winter current?

Edit: It came to my attention that users obviously expect an animation when the file is a GIF. The below GIF is not one but a still picture. It's a JPG i converted to GIF for file size reduction. I am very sorry if i confused someone. Your computer is NOT broken.

15
U.S. east coast

Sunscreen Chemicals Found in Chesapeake Bay Oysters
Quote
A new study finds Bay bivalves are apparently ingesting sunscreen ingredients from the water and sediment around them.

A team led by researchers from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County found ultraviolet-ray filtering chemicals used in commercial sunscreens, along with antibiotics and endocrine-disrupting hormones, in Bay water, bottom sediments and oyster tissue taken from the mouth of the Chester River and three water bodies on the Lower Eastern Shore. ...
https://chesapeakebaymagazine.com/sunscreen-chemicals-found-in-bay-oysters/

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Water Resource Management
« on: Today at 02:42:12 PM »
Thanks for this.

More proof that, for some people, no amount of evidence, even 'evidence' that destroys their lives and their towns, will convince some people to discard a cherished ideology.

If devastating droughts don't change their minds, I really doubt a Blue Ocean Event will.

18
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: Today at 02:33:21 PM »
The drought is now so severe it is biting in even the greenest corners of the country
Farmers along Australia's normally green eastern coast are reeling from the worst drought they have ever seen and face a tough summer if it doesn't rain in the next few months.
Quote
Key points:
• Even the greenest parts of the east coast are now feeling the effects of the drought
• Some areas of the NSW mid-north coast have only received 20 per cent of their annual rainfall
• Farmers have taken on work off the farm or are selling stock to make ends meet

The NSW mid-north coast is usually a lush part of the country, with reliable rain and regular flooding.  But the region has been in drought for two years now and farmers say it is starting to bite.

"We normally get 40 inches of rain [a year] and I think we are up to around 8 inches," fourth-generation beef farmer Tony Saul told 7.30.  "And that might be all we're going to get for the year."

He is standing in a dry river bed that stretches for hundreds of metres through his property near Kempsey.  It's usually full of water where his cattle drink.

"This is the longest and the driest it's been since I can remember and I've been here for my whole life," Mr Saul said.  "We've had dry periods — you know, it might be dry for three or four months.

"But it's been dry for 12 months here and the big concern is we've just been through our wet period of the calendar year." ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-16/drought-now-affecting-even-the-greenest-parts-of-the-country/11487026

19
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: Today at 02:31:11 PM »
Jaco Pastorius playing Jaco Pastorius

Thanks once again Martin. I've never seen/heard that before!

Jaco's early demise is possibly even sadder than Trane's?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaco_Pastorius#Death

20
TIME has devoted this week’s issue to climate change.

How to Save the Earth: Biggest Solutions for Climate Change
https://time.com/climate-change-solutions/

21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 12:51:41 PM »
.. southward and southerly mean the opposite .. b.c.

That's some useful information, B.C. :D

Thanks for the correction.

Quote
I like that you can relay more info in 400 kb than some can in 40,000

I know some tricks, my friend. ;)

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 12:49:14 PM »
I like that you can relay more info in 400 kb than some can in 40,000 ..  ;D

Shhhh!

23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: Today at 12:30:27 PM »
Hi bl .. southward and southerly mean the opposite .. b.c.

 ps I like that you can relay more info in 400 kb than some can in 40,000 ..  ;D

24
The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: Today at 10:44:46 AM »
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/15/cia-fort-detrick-stephen-kinzer-228109

The Secret History of Fort Detrick, the CIA’s Base for Mind Control Experiments
Today, it’s a cutting-edge lab. In the 1950s and 1960s, it was the center of the U.S. government’s darkest experiments

25
The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: Today at 10:42:27 AM »
Thanks to great Vox-mundi

*Psychologists Define the 'Dark Core of Personality'*
> https://medicalxpress.com/news/2018-09-psychologists-dark-core-personality.html

> *Egoism, Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy, sadism, spitefulness
 and others are among the traits of the malevolent side of human
> personality. As results from a recently published German-Danish research
> project show, these traits share a common "dark core." People with one of
> these tendencies are also likely to have one or more of the others.*

26
I do not get your humor (just hoping it is humor, what I do not get).

Same!

Quote
Dictionary

handler
/ˈhandlə/
noun: handler; plural noun: handlers
1.
a person who handles or deals with certain articles or commodities.
"a baggage handler"
a device which handles certain articles or substances.
"the company launched three telescopic handlers"
2.
a person who trains or has charge of an animal, in particular a police officer in charge of a dog.
3.
a person who trains or manages another person.
a person who trains and acts as second to a boxer.
a publicity agent.
a person who directs the activities of a spy or other freelance agent.

To those who call Greta a puppet of handlers, which definition of the word are you implying and for what reason?

In general, i have the impression the word is negatively connoted and i see it as a smear if used in the context of Greta.

27
A radical climate scientist, of course.
(the "handler" of Greta, context above)
That is a no brainer. Greta follows science. Today realistic is often called radical. Probably because many people got used to be radically wrong. 
Perhaps govt funded. (Hint: certainly not Russian...).
I guess the Swedish government? No, she was demonstraiting against it... Swiss? I do not get your humor (just hoping it is humor, what I do not get).

That she is not a Russian spy and that Merkel was misunderstood Greta explained here (Poeple say such bullshit just to change subject away from climate crisis. Do not follow in wrong directions):   

28
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: Today at 07:04:01 AM »
Wipneus, thank you very much.
Could you give me a link to that Sentinel B source - if I open this programme, there is no actual photograph available (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=-75.17015590641843&lng=-101.28536224365234&zoom=11&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.2&gamma=1.0&time=2018-08-01%7C2019-02-16&atmFilter=&showDates=true)


Stephan, I list and download from ESA's scihub using scripts provided by them.
The full flename of the download is:
S2B_MSIL1C_20190914T151259_N0208_R139_T14CMB_20190914T180019.zip
of use may be the productid:
'3ddd27b9-4efa-4bfb-a5b8-22cb80cd0662'

29
That would be a very good first test of finding out the melting properties of ice contaminated with microplastics.

How to get pure water?
How to contaminate pure water with a known amount and one specific type and size of microplastics?
How to get a homogenous distribution of microplastics in the ice?

I would advise to do the test not only with warming by insolation, but also with warming the tray or warming a layer of pure water underneath the ice.

I've been on vacation in the Oregon (USA) wilderness for the past week and did think about microplastics quite a bit. I live in easy reach of a number of glacial runoff streams so I will take some water samples and see what I can find from that in runoff water.

I have a water sample from a glacial stream running from Mt. Adams (Washington State, USA) I took several years ago.  I had no idea about microplastics in glacial water at that time so I will look at it microscopically to see if I can find anything first before I get more samples.  I am thinking about collecting and filtering a few gallons of water to concentrate any microplastics found in the water to get a general idea about the quantity of the microplastics in the runoff water. 

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:41:16 AM »
We are celebrating the Independence of México

Why do i hear Speedy Gonzales yelling "¡Arriba, Arriba! ¡Ándale, Ándale!" now?

Have a lot of fun Juan.  8)

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:39:33 AM »
On the bright side we've now triple-validated our work :)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:35:06 AM »
September 15th, 2019:
     4,006,036 km2, a drop of 19,682 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.


33
GM strike: 50K employees off the job at midnite

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/09/14/auto-s15.html

sidd

34
The question of climate tipping points, and cascades of climate tipping points is a complex matter, so I provide a link to the following Grist article on this topic, not because it is comprehensive (which it is not), but because it provides thoughtful color commentary on this somewhat emotional topic:

Title: "Will I be able to tell when we’ve reached a climate tipping point?"

https://grist.org/article/will-i-be-able-to-tell-when-weve-reached-a-climate-tipping-point/

Extract: "“All we can say, as loud as we can, is that every half degree matters, but especially regarding stability of polar ice sheets,” Cobb explains."

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 02:22:14 AM »
Hi everyone:

We are celebrating the Independence of México, so I will not be posting today.
Having fun with friends.  :)

If someone else makes the post. Thanks!

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

36
Farell at the conversationalist on abusive relationships in this brave new world:

“We love our phones, but we do not trust them. And love without trust is the definition of an abusive relationship.”

"What our smartphones and relationship abusers share is that they both exert power over us in a world shaped to tip the balance in their favour, and they both work really, really hard to obscure this fact and keep us confused and blaming ourselves. "

"They tell us they work for and care about us, and if we just treat them right then we can learn to trust them. But all the evidence shows the opposite is true. This cognitive dissonance confuses and paralyses us. And look around. Everyone has a smartphone. So it’s probably not so bad, and anyway, that’s just how things work. "

" while looking at our relationship with our phones through a feminist lens may be disconcerting, it’s incredibly useful, and in a deliciously counter-intuitive way."

"Feminists know about power. Specifically, they know a lot about unequal power relationships"

"Abuse isn’t just pathological. It’s political. "

"just as we don’t fix climate change by individually eschewing plastic straws, we don’t fix our smartphones’ designed-in lack of trust by individually trying to spend a bit less time on Twitter."

"There’s a clear parallel between the emotional labour of women under patriarchy and the ‘attentional labour’ extracted from all of us under surveillance capitalism. "

"everything is impossible until it’s inevitable."

"A smartphone worthy of both our love and our trust would be a smartphone that is primarily loyal to us. It wouldn’t share our data with random companies that want to exploit or manipulate us, or with governments whose acts can harm us. It would tell us in plain language what it’s doing and why. It wouldn’t run background software on behalf of organizations that don’t work for us, and it wouldn’t hide what it was doing because it knew we wouldn’t like it. It wouldn’t be pockmarked with vulnerabilities that hostile agents exploit and sell to the highest bidder."

"Instead of monetizing our distraction, a trustworthy smartphone would help us do the sustained intellectual and creative work that gives our life meaning. It would deepen and broaden our relationships, not exploit them for a social graph. It would dive into immersive storytelling and communication with the goal to make new ways for us to love and be loved."

"Using a feminist lens brings the unequal power relationship into focus, shows just how weird it is and reminds us how we’ve dealt with this kind of problem before."

I have difficulty designating a smartphone as an object of love, but read the whole thing:

https://conversationalist.org/2019/09/13/feminism-explains-our-toxic-relationships-with-our-smartphones/

sidd



37
Buttistoni on Latour in dissent magazine:

"What if the global ruling class was intentionally destroying the climate? Think about it: educated in the world’s most expensive institutions, they must understand what climate change means. They might understand its implications so well, in fact, that they have set out to make sure they are protected from it at the expense of everyone else. Having lost faith in the long-promised world of prosperity, and recognizing that the planet cannot support all of us, elites have deregulated the economy and dismantled the welfare state while lavishly funding the denial of climate change."

"Latour is not interested in talking about climate science any longer. Of course we know climate change is happening, of course we know it is bad. Instead he is interested in how these facts are received, why they are accepted—or not—and, ultimately, in how we should face them."

"Nature is no longer a distant ecosystem that we can choose to care about or not, but terrestrial: what is now threatened is the very ground beneath our feet. "

“We don’t have to choose between workers’ wages and the fate of some little birds,”

“What do you want? What are you capable of? With whom are you prepared to cohabit? Who can threaten you?”

"The obvious problem is that we may not like the answers."

"Latour is adamant that Europeans are in no position to keep refugees out."

"It’s bracing to see him flirting with class war. If only he had better advice on how to win it."

https://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/material-world

sidd

38
More than two weeks, now, since the last post here. Others who would like to contribute are probably also perplexed and fascinated by the melting season that would not stop. (That is kinda important, I suppose.) In this cross-post from comments under a CommonDreams article about the German PFOA study,  I'm sincere in my implicit apology for neglecting this important thread, here, and perhaps it helps keep the thread alive. Please remember this thread, people, it needs your help! I seriously consider approaching the local high school about ice-cube studies!

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/14/german-study-alarming-levels-dangerous-plastics-childrens-bodies

(my comment also goads an old online fried to speak up more, maybe):

Quote
Hi webwalk,

(I don’t see enough of your granite wisdom to lean on around here lately, btw.)

Your disquisition on “research” brings to mind a guilty debt weighing on me: I’ve been desperately scrabbling for some time to conduct more reading into the microplastics mess. Indications mount that ubiquitous microplastics are as serious a contamination of the global ecosphere as CO2 in the atmosphere – and that’s worse than deadly serious.

A quick example of something we don’t know is illuminating. Take pure water, freeze it in tray A. Water suffused with microplastics, freeze it in tray B. Melting under sunlight will vary consistently for any two cubes from trays A and B, I expect, because solar irradiation doesn’t do the same thing to plastic as it does to ice.

Could be a junior high-school science project, right? But we can’t find hardly anything published on this little matter, which probably has something to do with how long the icecap hangs around, because, alas, the icecap is also full of microplastics.

Was I asking why you don’t post more frequently? Sorry, nevermind.

39
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: Today at 01:20:37 AM »
Really interesting song.

If you play around with drones that I - V is an interesting pattern to play around with and play all around the circle.

PS: i never was into jazz much but i had Arnie Berles book.
Clearly jazz required a lot of dedication. :)

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 01:15:41 AM »
@aperson
It's not a denialist mistake to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes with their predictions. It's just a mistake. What do we call people who voted for BOE option THIS YEAR, during this melting season. Or do you think that was more realistic than weatherdude's prediction. They were just wronglike him. That is it. No conspiracies or hidden meanings behind every false prediction. Some are more realistic, some are less.

Hi colchonero, I agree with you. Regardless, I don't think you understand the context for this specific poster. They post denialist rhetoric on other forums like americanwx and then disappear whenever SIE or SIA goes back to low values. They seem to have registered here to do the same.

I agree with making falsifiable predictions and verifying them, in fact I have one coming up in just a few days that may bust that I will be posting about! It is not his prediction I have a problem with, it is his hubris: "Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent."

And note that this is not the first time this specific user has done this on this forum or elsewhere. Without this surrounding context I would have not been so judgmental.

41
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: Today at 12:12:20 AM »
^^
I think it boils down to language representation limits and not understanding the concept of conscience. To thinking in the wrong level of detail; missing many 'bigger pictures'. To trying to define something that in reality is not one thing.

The problem here is which model of the mind they used.

This would not imply, as Libet had thought, that people’s brains “decide” to move their fingers before they know it. Hardly. Rather, it would mean that the noisy activity in people’s brains sometimes happens to tip the scale if there’s nothing else to base a choice on, saving us from endless indecision when faced with an arbitrary task. The Bereitschaftspotential would be the rising part of the brain fluctuations that tend to coincide with the decisions. This is a highly specific situation, not a general case for all, or even many, choices.

Cells are spiking all over the human body and these spikes then get collected in the neural net which makes it´s own spikes and then the brain does something with it. It triggers some behaviour but it does not specifically decide anything.

I really like the debunking argument.

PS: Try Zen practice. Just sit down in a correct posture breathe in and breathe out and think about nothing. It is hard but rewarding (you will probably run into stuff you have to handle before you can get to nothing) and basically it is also free.  :)

42
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:12:12 PM »
...
Must we expect a destabilisation of the whole ice sheet in the coming austral summer?

The is almost no chance of the whole West Antarctic Ice Sheet becoming unstable this coming austral summer, as the pending major calving event for the PIIS should leave plenty of ice shelf left to continue to buttress the PIG.

43
I have not discussed the bipolar seesaw mechanism for a while, so I present the two linked references that present paleo-finding about the bipolar seesaw and the Southern Ocean.  These references confirm that cooling of the Southern Ocean surface (possibly/probably from an armada melting icebergs) leads to warming of the Northern Hemisphere over a period of more than a century.  Nevertheless, I suspect that possible future bipolar seesaw activity could happen this century for reasons including:

a) radiative forcing is currently increase at a rate of several hundreds to several thousands of times faster than in the paleo cases cited in the two references;

b) the current ozone hole was not extant in the cited paleo cases; which is upwelling relatively warm CDW faster now than in the past, and

c) rapid climate change (as is currently occurring) would give Antarctic marine glaciers less time to thin, which may well lead to taller ice cliffs in coming decades; which may likely result in faster MICI propagation in the WAIS in coming decades:

Andrew F. Thompson et al. (2019), "Southern Ocean Mechanism for the Interhemispheric Coupling and Phasing of the Bipolar Seesaw", JCLI, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0621.1

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0621.1

Abstract: "The last glacial period is punctuated by abrupt changes in Northern Hemisphere temperatures that are known as Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. A striking and largely unexplained feature of DO events is an interhemispheric asymmetry characterized by cooling in Antarctica during periods of warming in Greenland and vice versa—the bipolar seesaw. Methane-synchronized ice core records indicate that the Southern Hemisphere lags the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 200 years. Here, we propose a mechanism that produces observed features of both the bipolar seesaw and the phasing of DO events. The spatial pattern of sea ice formation and melt in the Southern Ocean imposes a rigid constraint on where water masses are modified: waters are made denser near the coast where ice forms and waters are made lighter farther north where ice melts. This pattern, coupled to the tilt of density surfaces across the Southern Ocean and the stratification of the ocean basins, produces two modes of overturning corresponding to different bipolar seesaw states. We present evolution equations for a simplified ocean model that describes the transient adjustment of the basin stratification, the Southern Ocean surface density distribution, and the overturning strength as the ocean moves between these states in response to perturbations in North Atlantic Deep Water formation, which we take as a proxy for Greenland temperatures. Transitions between different overturning states occur over a multicentennial time scale, which is qualitatively consistent with the observed Southern Hemisphere lag. The volume of deep density layers varies inversely with the overturning strength, leading to significant changes in residence times. Evidence of these dynamics in more realistic circulation models is discussed."

&

Svante Björck et al. (2019), "A south Atlantic island record uncovers shifts in westerlies and hydroclimate during the last glacial", Climate of the Past, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-65

https://www.clim-past-discuss.net/cp-2019-65/

Abstract. The period 36–18 ka was a dynamic phase of the last glacial, with large climate shifts in both hemispheres. Through the bipolar seesaw, the Antarctic Isotope Maxima and Greenland DO events were part of a global concert of large scale climate changes. The interaction between atmospheric processes and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is crucial for such shifts, controlling upwelling- and carbon cycle dynamics, and generating climate tipping points. Here we report the first temperature and humidity record for the glacial period from the central South Atlantic (SA). The presented data resolves ambiguities about atmospheric circulation shifts during bipolar climate events recorded in polar ice cores. A unique lake sediment sequence from Nightingale Island at 37° S in the SA, covering 36.4–18.6 ka, exhibits continuous impact of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHW), recording shifts in their position and strength. The SHW displayed high latitudinal and strength-wise variability 36–31 ka locked to the bipolar seesaw, followed by 4 ka of slightly falling temperatures, decreasing humidity and fairly southern westerlies. After 27.5 ka temperatures decreased 3–4 °C, marking the largest hydroclimate change with drier conditions and a variable SHW position. We note that periods with more intense and southerly positioned SHW are correlated with periods of increased CO2 outgassing from the ocean. Changes in the cross-equatorial gradient during large northern temperature changes appear as the driving mechanism for the SHW shifts. Together with coeval shifts of the South Pacific westerlies, it shows that most of the Southern Hemisphere experienced simultaneous atmospheric circulation changes during the latter part of the last glacial.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:57:48 PM »
What would the area and/or extent have been in the early-mid 20th Century?

You may want this thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1461.0.html

Or maybe one of a few others in the "Arctic Background" section

45
The forum / Re: GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:34:46 PM »
IF ALL HAPPY MAYBE NEVEN COULD MAKE THEM INTO A RULE OF SORTS

Seems like a good idea. Lets go for the solution that saves most energy.

The data loading is not really a problem for me but i would like to keep my scrollwheel alive as long as possible and the whole metadiscussions annoy me.





46
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:55:44 PM »
Wipneus, thank you very much.
Could you give me a link to that Sentinel B source - if I open this programme, there is no actual photograph available (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=-75.17015590641843&lng=-101.28536224365234&zoom=11&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=100&gain=0.2&gamma=1.0&time=2018-08-01%7C2019-02-16&atmFilter=&showDates=true)

A lot has happened since last February. I compared some of the structures and I find a lot of new cracks, and the already existing ones have massively widened. I am especially concerned about the SW edge of PIIS, because there is already a lot of broken-up stuff which is now only a few kilometers away from the calving front. Must we expect a destabilisation of the whole ice sheet in the coming austral summer?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:47:45 PM »
...
I suppose if you get some enjoyment from it, go for it.
But frankly,  I just can't be arsed to spend any of my limited resources to tell them they are a bunch of shits.

You're certainly right that engaging with a committed denier won't alter the denier.
But in a public forum, there's always many more people reading than participating.  Many of them are on the fence.  Effective, reasoned posts can shift the views of the readership.

But it's a massive, thankless, Sisyphean task.   Kudos to Jim for fighting the good fight.  Personally, I don't have the patience, time, or stomach for it.  Maybe when I'm retired from employment.

48
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:41:13 PM »
The current problem is with mp4 files. Although they require a click to play they still load into the browser. If DM or Neven can disable this autoloading and just load a thumbnail it would fix everything.

I thought mp4 files were ideal because they don't play automatically. Hmmm, there doesn't seem to be a setting I can tweak in the SMF Mod that is enabling videos to be played on the forum.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Freezing Season For Dummies
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:34:48 PM »
Freezing season hasn't started yet, and we already have the stupid questions thread.

50
Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:57:58 PM »
Not so good.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-chinas-co2-emissions-grew-4-during-first-half-of-2019

Guest post: Why China’s CO2 emissions grew 4% during first half of 2019

Very informative, but I've read enough bad stuff today

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