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Messages - nanning

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If landlords cant pay their bills, they can sell the house.... and that is exactly what will happen eventually.
I am fairly sure that if all investors were out of the housing market, house prices would absolutely be affordable for everyone.... I mean, homelessness would disappear, people wouldn't have unstable housing (I was forced to move three times in three years because the owner wanted to sell, it is expensive to move house every year and the landlord doesn't care about that at all.) and people could turn a landlords asset into a true home where gardening, pets and decorating would be possible without the rather unpleasant task of asking permission for these things.

Housing, in itself, should never be a means of income and a place to create wealth. First and foremost, housing is shelter, one of our human rights.
And yet, those human rights are ignored in favor of a landlord who can sell the asset to maintain their wealth. It is yet another human cost to maintain the wealth with those who have enough to create more without actually adding any real value to the economy.

If the average moderately rich person (and everyone who can afford to own a rental property counts) put their money into things that grew the economy, then there would be more money to invest in things like renewables and such. But instead, the money is put into housing and creation of wealth at the expense of others who cant own a house.

Yes, landlords are people, but they have the power and the ability to sell the asset whereas renters have no such luxury.... we just get kicked out and left to our own devices.... but lets face it, most people don't think about what happens to people who are kicked out of a house and left to live in a car or on the streets or entering unstable housing or forced into smaller places that are unfit for the purpose.

It doesn't matter that the people being kicked out get records of non-payment that will stop them getting their next rental property. No, what matters is saving the wealth of those who have it.... it is how it is.

If people own a rental property and cant afford it, sell the house and stop bitching about it. The renter is screwed either way.... but who truly cares about that?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 10, 2021, 10:12:30 PM »
CryoSat is the only image that shows this big lump of thick ice between NE Greenland and the Pole Not in the Jaxa image either, and the image from DMI is just - weird.

So why is Cryosat showing such a difference?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 29, 2021, 07:17:33 AM »
This pretty much says it:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:54:45 AM »
And this pretty much sums up the rest of my misspent youth--all local musicians that I grew up listening to and still do (those still alive)--big influences on Bobby Zimmerman...errr, Dylan, and Bonnie Raitt:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:01:43 AM »
Thanks, nan.

This is something I sang with my highschool choir, among many other gospel songs:

Consequences / Hurricane Season 2021
« on: January 24, 2021, 09:01:10 PM »
New year, new storms.

Mark Sudduth
Off-Season Discussion for January 18, 2021

From: Hurricane News, Information and Live Field Coverage of Landfalls

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 01, 2021, 06:15:59 AM »
Good points, TM.

It's one of those internet conundrums - how much do you want to expose yourself online? Especially when it comes to multiple different websites.

doxing (wiki link)

Doxing, or doxxing (from "dox", abbreviation of documents), is the Internet-based practice of researching and publicly broadcasting private or identifying information (especially personally identifying information) about an individual or organization. The methods employed to acquire this information include searching publicly available databases and social media websites (like Facebook), hacking, and social engineering. It is closely related to Internet vigilantism and hacktivism.

Doxing may be carried out for various reasons, including inflicting harm, harassment, online shaming, extortion, coercion, business analysis, risk analytics, aiding law enforcement or vigilante versions of justice.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: December 31, 2020, 10:06:36 PM »
From a neighbor:

I didn’t post last night. Lots I could say.
I’m waiting to watch the cameras so that I can see for myself what happened. I don’t need any synopsis or summary.

John Elders [MPD spokesperson/pathological liar] already out making statements that are false just like last time. He’s not just an officer. He is a Councilmember in New Hope. How many of you knew that?

It should not have taken another human life to make it any more clear. The police know that there is no consequence for this. There haven’t been yet. The main murderer in the Floyd case took 4 days to arrest, they let him out and he can go to another surrounding state for safety, they wanted to move the trial to St Cloud...the list goes on. Who was the first one to get time? Officer Noor. The first and last example they made out of anyone after how many murders?

The Mayor has made changes that haven’t improved anything a few times now. You can’t reform the police, hell you can’t even control them let alone reform them.

At what point are we going to get real here? Everyone should be mortified.

THEY JUST MADE USE OF FORCE CHANGES IN AUGUST! Here we are again. Can’t shoot at moving vehicles and must use the least amount of force possible. So unless they attempted to taze, pepper spray, CS gas, or rubber bullet him first, clearly they used the most amount of force possible by shooting this person in the head.

Innocent until proven guilty. The spin cycle already churned out a fake term, “felony traffic stop”. Narrative. It gives the impression that the person deserved it.
Read it for yourself for those that don’t know.

This is exactly why GFS is holding that corner down until after the trial.
We can’t keep pretending like nothing happened, put up a monument, and then throw flowers in front of it so “we can all move on”. That $20 was never counterfeit. They never corrected for that narrative either. They want the presence of doubt.

Something did happen. It happened again last night. Cops are not jury’s or judges. They just like to play all the roles. This sends a message to the public. They don’t care about the Chief. They don’t care about the Mayor. They don’t care about the Council.

They don’t respect the communities they serve.

They don’t respect the badge because; if they did, the good ones would speak out. If Kroll [head of police union, verifiable pos] is as dangerous as we all know them to be to the point where officers fear speaking out, what does that tell you? When an overwhelming majority of the “union” federation votes for the current leadership of Kroll, a known racist, what does that tell you? When you drive from Andover and Hugo everyday to terrorize people who don’t look like you at disproportionate numbers, what does that tell you?

The police may pass out bikes and toys but that doesn’t absolve them of these murders. They are out of control. I call them the uncheckables. Even being fired by the Chief means nothing. They get reinstated. They are like meteorologists. They can be completely wrong and still have a job.
If we have rules of engagement in war (and I’m a vet so I would know) how in the hell don’t we have them here? Cops want to go home at night? Of course they do. I wanted to come home after 14 months in the desert. But we sign up for the job and that’s the risk we take.

We don’t get to go around playing shoot em up because it’s better to shoot first and ask questions later in the name of getting to go home at night. That shit is cowardly and in the military would land you in Leavenworth and dishonorably discharged.
The history of policing is important. Those of you that don’t know it need to get educated on the topic. You would know why it can’t be reformed. You would know why we need community control. You would see how the original purpose for police is still being carried out in present day.
They had their scope reduced and 8 million moved to the department that will take ownership of the work and the positions to carry them out.

In 2018, 60.8 million was spent statewide on lawsuits because of police misconduct. It’s now a billion dollar problem. This is why we leave people to freeze in parks. We pay at the expense of human lives for these “mistakes” and misconduct.

So keep asking for more money for the department and see how much safer you are. Reallocate money where it counts: housing, economic development, environmental pollution mitigation, education, youth programming, and elder care. Watch how safe we can be.

Priorities. Right now state sanctioned murder is being normalized. What is it going to take? These officers are rogue. This is why the state and FBI are investigating them and the BCA has to come in because we can’t trust them to do anything but not respond to calls and kill people.

I don’t want to hear the what about the good cops argument. Let them speak for themselves and stand up. Yes, I remember the open letter. Where did that get us? And then Former Deputy Chief DC Knight tries to call it out and the Chief demoted him. What does that tell you? This is the same Chief who sued the city and won because he knows better than most the discrimination Black officers face and the double standards they are held to.

We can’t ignore this.

 Mayor Jacob Frey
 at what point are you going to get real? Phillipe Cunningham - Ward 4 Minneapolis City Council Member

 what is the public safety committee going to do? Linea Palmisano
 what about enterprise? Is this not an enterprise issue?

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: December 31, 2020, 09:57:03 PM »
Still no bodycam footage today. The victim was a 23 year old Somali man. A vigil is planned, but also some late night protests. Conflicting witness accounts, so far, from what I've seen.

We need justice, but it would be nice to not have more opportunities for rightwing assholes to come into my neighborhood and, under the cover of righteous protests, burn much of it down again!

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 31, 2020, 09:07:32 PM »
Technology was more often the problem than the solution. We are always dealing with Jevons' paradox, it's hard to make it better without making it worse.   

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 31, 2020, 08:30:15 PM »
Is there any way we could find out who? I might want to here, but the thought that it can be done would be scary.
Does blum know they are ASIF members? Anyone can read these posts (which I feel is important, we must get the AGW message out) and could be spoofing us.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 31, 2020, 06:40:57 PM »
That's very worrying to hear that many enough morons of such kind are present here.

I recommend to use a distinct name that makes it harder to find out for the mob to know who's on the other end. I was not always happy with his moderation but any kind of violence, be it physical or mental is unacceptable and it would perhaps be really good to know who is who.

I'm sure @bk is lurking here as well hence "gute Besserung" and stay in control, nobody and nothing is worth it to lose one's peace of mind.

Happy New Year @all

I wish you that “Corona” becomes a beer again in the new year,

that when you meet again you can take a step forward instead of a step back,

that "positive" will again be something exclusively positive,

that "tests" take place again mainly in the education system,

that "isolate" again mainly applies to buildings and power cables,

that you can celebrate Carnival again with a "mask",

and that "Donald" remains a lame "Duck" forever!


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 31, 2020, 04:10:26 PM »
I am here to report some worrying news from blumenkraft.
He writes that he is being harassed on reddit by asif members. He has closed accounts multiple times to get rid of the harassing.

My friend blumenkraft is already wrestling with depression since recent brain surgery and the passing away of his beloved cat.
What some asif members are doing to blumenkraft is more than very nasty; it is detrimental to his health.

I don't know which members are doing this but will you pretty please stop with harassing blumenkraft. Please!
If it keeps on it will be time to name names and give some of it back.

I for one would gladly give the people who are doing it some real shit.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 31, 2020, 01:47:08 PM »
I am sorry to hear about Blum's troubles.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: December 31, 2020, 09:26:34 AM »
Cops in Minneapolis just shot someone dead not far from the George Floyd site. People are rightly suspicious of police around here, tho in this case witnesses do concur that the person who was shot opened fire on the police first. Still many questions unanswered at this point.

Crowds started to gather, but have now dispersed, as I understand it. Can hear a lot of helicopters from my house, which I assume are mostly police surveillance, tho some may have been news copters.

Police body camera footage is supposedly going to be released tomorrow. I hope we don't have too much disruption (looting, arson, etc), but I also do want cops to be accountable, of course.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 29, 2020, 05:16:08 PM »
HapHazard, I have to claim ownership of  some part of your amusement . I am conflicted and from the comforts of my couch I question the cost of it. And for my amusement I struggle back through the layers of tools technology has straddled us with to try and figure a way around it . And maybe no we wouldn’t be humans without fire but it’s worth some experimenting , to make sure.

“Original Sin” Robinson Jeffers

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 29, 2020, 02:23:18 PM »
I just did some skimming through the Consequences sub-forum. (I tend to stick exclusively to the Cryosphere bit, & here) I found some humour there, albeit not in the normal form I see posted in this thread.

I find many people posting there who simultaneously embrace science while rejecting technology. I found myself giggling quite a few times.

But I'm weird, so IDK.

I think you're confusing the notions of technological advances with technical progress. Don't forget that science without conscience is only the ruin of the soul (and eventually of the planet).
I give you a clue: a savage armed with a club or a savage armed with an AR15, technological advance or technological progress?

“Policy response. This decisively shapes the recovery path and is a clear silver lining of the Covid recession. The speed, feasibility, and effectiveness of fiscal policy has been demonstrated, above all in the U.S. There remains a common misperception that virus caseloads and Covid deaths are strict determinants of economic performance. In reality, the correlation is weak — precisely because a strong economic policy response effectively bridges some of the economic damage from less successful virus control efforts. Think of how U.S. efforts at virus control largely failed relative to other rich nations —  in Europe, for example — yet U.S. real growth has still come out ahead. The much bolder U.S. policy effort explains that outcome. Yet, the ultimate impact of policy is to prevent a different type of contagion — household and firm bankruptcies and a wobbly banking system — and this is where structural damage comes in.”

This says to me that if the economy isn't affected by the spread of the virus, then the extra thousands and thousands of dead people arent important.... economy number one.

The additional thousands of deaths amount to 0.07% of the population, (in 2019, 0.87% of the population died, and estimated 2020 totals will reach 0.94%).  Additionally, 75% of the deaths are people over 65.  That is not to say they are not important, but that their numbers are an extremely small percentage of the total population.  The fear of the virus likely has a bigger impact.

I am fairly sure all those people that wouldn't have died from Covid would disagree with you. Clearly, you are on the side that the health of the economy is worth killing people without a reason.

What the fuck is wrong with people?

How did you come to that ridiculous conclusion?  That would be akin to me saying that you do not care about the poor as long as the rich old guys stay healthy. 

Those are false dichotomies, and have no business in a reasonable debate.

Actually, you have been quite adamant about making sure you point out how few people have died with your percentages.... as if it isn't really all that bad.

Like this... The additional thousands of deaths amount to 0.07% of the population, (in 2019, 0.87% of the population died, and estimated 2020 totals will reach 0.94%).  ....

Hardly a small deal when an extra 9ish% of deaths happen.
And of course, my favorite, it is mostly people over 65. Clearly they don't count.

And lets not worry about the ongoing organ damage and problems Covid is producing.

The main thing by you is the economy isn't affect regardless of lockdown or not..... this is in spite of multiple countries doing lockdowns and recovering better than the likes of the US and Europe who are losing a lot of people.... and if you honestly believe the economies in those countries are doing mostly okay in spite of the rampant virus, then I am not sure you have any idea of what is actually happening.

Dozens and dozens of articles from multiple sources have been shared displaying the increased hunger, dislocation of people, potential mass evictions coming, job loses, no health care etc etc etc clearly haven't made a dent in your thinking that Covid is causing a lot of pain and misery because of the deliverate mishandling of the who event from day one by the Trump administration.

But... the rich are fine, lets move and keep finding ways to make it look like a nothing thing... just call it the flu or common cold enough and people will believe it.
Just bring up numbers that make it look smaller than it is to those who don't understand numbers.... they will believe it if you say it often enough.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: December 27, 2020, 05:29:38 PM »
This article is old, but it emphasizes how much evidence there is that much of the arson and violence in my neighborhood after the Floyd lynching was committed by rightwing a$$holes, trying (pretty successfully) to paint BLM and allies as violent. No evidence of any Antifa involvement in violence here that I've heard of, by the way.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 07, 2020, 11:58:25 PM »
when is a troll not a troll ? When he trolls the ASIF ... b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 06, 2020, 11:59:56 AM »
suddenly I find I can access internet again .. so .. please ff / martin .. appeal to neven .. only he can unmod you .. I already asked ages ago .. I have no wish to see your or the walrus' posts awaiting moderation .. they do not need it unlike some others that are not in moderation ... b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: November 05, 2020, 05:40:44 AM »
Saw this paper this morning, it relates to two recent discussions, the first was about how water absorbs energy from the sun (the conclusion was that infrared radiation was absorbed readily by water, while visible light was mostly absorbed by particulates such as algae and their remains), and the second discussion was about Arctic Amplification and how ever more open water leads to a warmer Arctic and ever more open water in a true positive feedbac.

This article points out another potentially powerful positive feedback: The more open water there is to receive insolation, the more algae and the more particulates will be found, leading to more absorbtion of insolation in the upper layers, leading to more Arctic amplification.

Amplified Arctic Surface Warming and Sea Ice Loss Due to Phytoplankton and Colored Dissolved Material

Plain language summary:
The amount of microalgae and colored dissolved organic material in the ocean determines how much light is absorbed in the surface waters and how much can reach greater depths. The vertical distribution of energy affects the upper ocean temperature and general circulation. Here, we use a numerical ocean model with biogeochemistry and sea ice, in which the individual effects of microalgae and colored dissolved organic matter can be turned on and off separately. When both effects are turned on, the summertime surface temperatures in the Arctic are larger and consequently more sea ice melts, so that the sea ice season is shorter by up to one month. We find that, to a large extent, the colored dissolved material is responsible for these changes. An increase of this material due to climate change will amplify the observed Arctic surface warming. For better projections of climate change, new models should account for the effect of these light‐absorbing water constituents.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 05, 2020, 05:35:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 4th, 2020:
     7,659,839 km2, an almost double century break increase of 192,347 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 02:43:58 AM »
Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears

"As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 04, 2020, 08:07:39 PM »
amsr2-uhh comparison of 2016 and 2020, sep21-nov3.
bad data on 20160924
click for movement (10MB)

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: November 04, 2020, 03:47:29 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the flux of water vapor from the surface to the atmosphere is becoming an increasingly important component of the Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance that is currently being ignored by consensus climate science estimates/projections:

Kopec, B. G., Akers, P. D., Klein, E. S., and Welker, J. M.: Significant water vapor fluxes from the Greenland Ice Sheet detected through water vapor isotopic (δ18O, δD, deuterium excess) measurements, The Cryosphere Discuss.,, in review, 2020.

Abstract. The summer of 2019 was marked by an extensive early onset of surface melt and record volume losses of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), which is part of a larger trend of increasing melt over time. Given the growing spatial extent of melt, the flux of water vapor from the ice to the atmosphere is becoming an increasingly important component of the GrIS mass balance that merits investigation and quantification. We examine the isotopic composition of water vapor from Thule Air Base, NW Greenland, particularly the deuterium excess (d-excess), to quantify the magnitude of GrIS vapor fluxes. To do this, we observe only water vapor transported off the ice sheet (i.e., when easterly winds occur) and during the active melt season. We find that the GrIS-derived water vapor d-excess values are controlled by two main factors: 1) the d-excess of the sublimating vapor, which is determined, in part, by the relative humidity and wind speed above the ice sheet, and 2) the proportion of sublimation- vs. marine-sourced moisture. Here, the GrIS melt extent serves as a proxy for the sublimation source and the North Atlantic Oscillation provides a measure of the meridional transport of marine moisture. We demonstrate that sublimation contributes ~20 % of the water vapor transported from the GrIS during the melt season. Sublimation is thus an important component of GrIS mass balance and the regional hydrologic cycle, and this flux will become more important in the coming years as further warming continues GrIS negative mass balance trends.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: November 04, 2020, 03:37:34 PM »
The linked reference confirms that albedo effects due to increased phytoplankton growth in the Arctic Ocean is contributing to Arctic Amplification and that consensus climate months do not yet account for this positive feedback:

Vasileios Pefanis et al. (26 October 2020), "Amplified Arctic Surface Warming and Sea Ice Loss Due to Phytoplankton and Colored Dissolved Material", Geophysical Research Letters,

Abstract: "Optically active water constituents attenuate solar radiation and hence affect the vertical distribution of energy in the upper ocean. To understand their implications, we operate an ocean biogeochemical model coupled to a general circulation model with sea ice. Incorporating the effect of phytoplankton and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) on light attenuation in the model increases the sea surface temperature in summer and decreases sea ice concentration in the Arctic Ocean. Locally, the sea ice season is reduced by up to one month. CDOM drives a significant part of these changes, suggesting that an increase of this material will amplify the observed Arctic surface warming through its direct thermal effect. Indirectly, changing advective processes in the Nordic Seas may further intensify this effect. Our results emphasize the phytoplankton and CDOM feedbacks on the Arctic ocean and sea ice system and underline the need to consider these effects in future modeling studies to enhance their plausibility."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 04, 2020, 11:12:11 AM »
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.
Thanks, much clearer.

gmrt bathymetry with amsr2-awi-v103 overlay at 90% with heavy contrast to help view lower concentration ice, oct25-nov3

Siberian coastal ice is shown drifting out to sea. That may fasten up with more northerly winds forecast.

Some discussion upthread about ice movement close to Severnaya Zemlya. It appears that the ice that formed and drifted to the south west did melt or disperse to the point where it became undetectable to amsr2. Too cloudy for viirs brightness temperature to verify, those interested could check if there are any Sentinel images. Coastal Kara ice is spreading from the south east with favourable winds to replace it.

My interest in this presentation is the area north of NSI previously looked at here.
Not much to see but there may be a further weakness over the Lomonosov Ridge. Looking for evidence to identify if there is persistent turbulence causing vertical mixing there.

It's easy to see the more well known turbulent area north east of Chukchi as the warmer Pacific waters sink into the basin.
Recent extent gains have been impressive. There's still a long way to go.
click for movement

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2020, 10:22:40 AM »
Good morning.

This was posted by Alexander555 in the COVID-19 thread:
(bolding by me)
"We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed[sic]"

This was allowed to stand . . . . . . .
But I cannot stand it being allowed to stand as someone who has posted in the George Floyd thread and stands firmly with the oppressed. I'd thought that I was not alone.

If this still stands tomorrow, I'll make a stand and will peacefully protest by not participating for a while. If I can find the motivation again.

kassy I believe that you are the moderator of the COVID-19 thread. Your level of morality and justice shines through in your moderating acts. I find it shocking that you think that the quoted sentence is okay on this forum. In this way YOU select the forummembers. The moaners and flames stay and the silent good ones leave. This has nothing to do with my appreciation of the other efforts you put in as moderator and contributor. I don't think that you're bad as a person, nothing like that is intended.

See how a couple of emotionally- and personality-challenged members are taking up so much of your time (and ours) and effort and lower the general tone, readbility and quality of the forum by doing that. When someone is on a third try, I would be much harder on them and not allow any transgressions or it is into the corner again. Why not ask Neven for help with moderating issues? He's experienced here and you could learn from him.

Without naming them as trolls specifically (but I believe they are, difficult to explain here), their behaviour is very succesfull in destabilising the site and dragging the fiends-feelings down; invoking emotions and people taking sides and more.

I'm still disgusted by Alexander's post.

+1 on that sentence being allowed to remain.
I said nothing mostly because I thought it would be removed for a number of reasons.

The blatant hate speech that is happening in the Covid thread is ridiculous.
It seems okay to throw Nazi around for reasons that don't make sense.... and it is the same people doing it after they were told to stop it.

Several people are baiting others, the rubbish not just individuals but the entire forum should their opinions be pushed back on with evidence.... and their idea of evidence comes from far right sources and Murdock media (a well-known political influencer,  climate denier and Covid hoax promoter and Non-White hater)

Normally it is okay to let things slip, it exposes the haters of the world to see them rant, but when is enough, enough?

A few members need to be banned, they are only here to argue their unbackable opinions and run down others while trying to make themselves look like some sort of genius or something and play victim along the way.

The hate talk is becoming a derailing factor in the Covid thread in particular. If those people want to talk politics, take it elsewhere.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 04, 2020, 09:54:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  7,467,492 KM2 as at 03-Nov-2020

- Extent gain on this day 199k, 86 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 113k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 3,913 k, which is 124 k, 3% less than the 10 year average of 4,036 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  469 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  164 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  492 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,074 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  899 k LESS than the 2010's Average
On average 40.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 128 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.32 million km2, 0.56 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
Are daily extent gains going to moderate from now on?
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 04, 2020, 09:43:56 AM »
Sorry both, Mpemba effect is an example of awfully executed pseudoscience- sometimes sarcasm does not carry. Still though, it would be interesting if it was real

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: November 04, 2020, 12:33:13 AM »
The attached tweeted graphic shows that the Northeast Passage just closed, and that 2020 had the longest period for the Arctic Ocean being passable; which is a clear indication of Arctic Amplification.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 09:59:35 PM »
I take it as a good sign that this thread is going off-topic, but nevertheless I would like to ask all of you to take these discussions elsewhere, preferably outside of the ASIF.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 09:16:27 PM »
I would be very interested in any proof that anyone who did any looting anywhere were actual, prominent activists openly associating themselves with 'antifa' or blm (though the latter, being a much broader group, would be less surprising to find, perhaps).

Either supply proof of such inflammatory claims, or please stop filling these threads with unfounded hate mongering claims...there's already enough of that in the world.

Thank you :)

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 08:57:29 PM »

??? I did not attack oren's personality I said he has a good personality which is why he is not a good moderator

Another functionally illiterate poster on a "science" Forum, oh dear.

No, ad hominem means to the person.  It's not acceptable in such discussions to move the focus to a person you're in a discussion with.  It doesn't matter whether you're damning someone's personality with faint praise.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 08:16:06 PM »
. and bbr , your other attack on a 'functionally illiterate poster' was purely that , so deleted . b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 08:06:17 PM »
Really, save the Nazi label for National Socialists, especially German. Not all racists are Nazis. If you use it for people who are prejudiced against people of another race, it dilutes the special quality of the Third Reich.
Why are we discussing nazis in the covid-19 thread?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 06:26:23 PM »

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.
Do you have evidence for that?  Polio is spread by the fecal-oral route.  If there was that much fecal-oral transmission going on in the 1950s, we'd have had simultaneous mass epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.  We didn't.

What the world has gained by striving to control outbreaks of Covid is a much lower mortality rate now than we had in the spring.  With further incremental improvements in treatment, we can look forward to further taming of this disease.  At some point, it may indeed be reasonable to "let it rip."  But not now.  Except, perhaps, in Africa.  For reasons nobody seems to understand, it's not been a virulent infection there.

Yes, lives have been disrupted some.  Essential economic activities, however, have been largely uninterrupted.  Nations that have had a less rigorous approach to control have not had less severe economic damage. The world has lost very little by the interruption of the tourist industry, for example. The right approach to the economic suffering is not to let the epidemic flourish, but to provide something like a Universal Basic Income.
Maybe Africa is predominantly young, and not obese.... and the infections aren't recorded anyways when malaria, HIV, etc are killing way more as-is.

Saying "we don't know why Africa has no cases" is intellectual dishonesty.

No, it's not intellectual dishonesty on my part.   A range of hypothesis have been offered in the literature.  You've described just two.  But these are only hypotheses.  We don't have meaningful answers for these hypotheses yet.

I'd provide more details, but you've steered the thread off-topic already.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
Another attack on original analytical thought by Oren. He only wants regurgitation on this forum. It is offensive.

Well, that's a daft assertion.  Oren's post starts with "A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader.'

This is the exact opposite of what you claim the moderator wants.  Yes, he does quibble with a few of A-Teams assertions about what's valuable or not.  A completely reasonable contrast of opinions, and not at all an attack.

However, your over the top mischaracterization of Orens's words actually is an attack on our esteemed moderator and is not supported by evidence--and thus is corrosive to the community many have built here.
Why do you say "our esteemed moderator" as if I hold oren's moderation in esteem? Please do not put words in my mouth, and speak for yourself.

I have no problem with oren as a poster but I think he is a bad moderator. I think he is overly empathetic and does not use logic in deciding what discussions to encourage and which to shut down. Empathy is a good trait but in moderation, and an abundance can be problematic when it comes to moderating (but is good re: life in general).

This is not corrosive to the community, this is a statement of opinion. I believe this style of moderation is corrosive to the community, and that is my opinion.

You grossly mischaracterized Oren's words and attacked him with that mischaracterization.  This matter has nothing to do with Oren's speculated personality.  Deflecting the conversation to someone's personality is a form of ad hominem attack.  Such repeated ad hominems are completely out of bounds on a discussion forum.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: November 03, 2020, 01:12:16 PM »
Eta from GOES-E at 07:30 UTC
Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. 
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua.  A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:13:24 AM »
For 2°C:

Can 232 GtC (851 CO2) of soil carbon be used to update remaining carbon budgets in SR15, Ch 2, Table 2.2?

For 50% chance in Table 2.2, budget to keep below 2°C is 1500 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since 1/1/2018).

Taking 851 from 1500 gives 650 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since)

Earth system feedbacks include CO2 released by permafrost thawing or methane released by wetland. These in Table 2.2 given as 100 GtCO2 for  a 1.5°C rise, but will  be more for 2°C rise.
Guess 150GtCO2?

Emissions since date in SR15 (1/1/2018) about 100 GtCO2?

That gives remaining carbon budget of 650-150-100 = 400 Gt CO2.

That's a remaining budget of 53 tonnes CO2 per human for 2°C rise.

Crude but this it at all realistic?

How much does non-CO2 climate forcing reduce this?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:01:34 AM »
You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

To misquote the "Good the Bad and the Ugly":

"You know my friend, there are two kinds of people in this world: The ones who listen to science and reason, and the ones who are misled by populists"

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 05:45:16 AM »
You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

Can you be specific in what you mean so replies can be given?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 03, 2020, 04:35:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 2nd, 2020:
     7,268,936 km2, a double century break increase of 276,748 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:22:57 AM »

Iets face the facts, George Floyed died on the 25th of May. 14 days later the 2th wave starts in the US. And where did they had a 2th wave like that in the NH in summer 

The 2nd wave in the US occurred in AZ, FL, LA, MS, etc. ...  i.e. the US South where hot humid weather forces everyone inside to air-conditioning.

The Midwest and Northeast had declining cases during the summer. The states of MN, WI, NY, IL all declined. All had large BLM rallies. All rallies had masks mandated by peer pressure, essentially.

Outdoor mass gatherings while wearing masks are riskier than staying home alone, but are much safer than indoor dining and bars. In the South, all the Trumpers, GOPers, and COVID deniers came out of their isolation and went to indoor dining and bars. They spread COVID far and wide during the summer. BLM rallies occurred in the South, but they were not large, did not last long (too hot), all participants were near 100% masked, and did not spread COVID.

Your pouty political spin on BLM as the cause of COVID spread is roundly refuted by the facts on the ground.

Melbourne had a similar thing happen.
Just before the outbreak here there were protests concerning BLM with a strong focus on Indigenous rights.
Most people wore masks and did social distancing, it was really great to see.
Anyway.... a couple of weeks later the outbreak happened and Murdoch media blamed the marches for it.
Science leaps it and proves without a doubt that nobody from the BLM marches even had Covid and the tracing of DNA didn't lead back to anyone in the protests.
It was a Murpdoch/political motive to blame non-White people for the outbreak.

Ironically, it turns out it was several White people who set the outbreak off... some knew they were sick, the others not. But not a peep about their skin color and the Murdoch media ran the articles blaming the protests for weeks after it was shown to be completely untrue.

But, the truth doesn't matter, those who wanted to blame non-White people were convinced and decided that anything against their thinking was just a conspiracy.

It is truly sad that this shit just keeps happening and that so many people believe it.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:13:32 AM »
... and i was bullied too ..

 .. and have found it a frequent occurrence since i volunteered to help blumenkraft moderate .

bbr , you know that you are here only 'cause the mods you so frequently abuse appealed to Neven not to banish you .. if you recall he wrote you ''I didn't want to let you back on the ASIF but the 'little Eichmanns' wanted to give you a fourth chance ...''

Uniquorn , I have already asked Neven and will do so again . Only he can act . I hope this time he does .

Gandul .. ' I have moderated my tone ' ..  followed by ' the prick ' ( your endearing term for A-team ) .. really ?

 .. and as for 'A555hole' .. only one could have written such crap ..


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:10:23 AM »
If you're looking for sympathy you'll find it in the dictionary between shit and syphilis.

If you want to carry the baggage of childhood around for your entire lifetime, that's your choice.

A lifetime is long time.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:24:15 AM »
I've decided to start smoking again.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:17:07 AM »
Sco-ooo-re!!!!: AI Tracking Camera Mistakes Referee’s Bald Head for a Soccer Ball

AI cameras have come a long way when it comes to object recognition and tracking, but sometimes the “intelligence” can fail in humorous ways. At a recent professional soccer match in Scotland, the AI broadcast camera tasked with tracking the soccer ball kept getting distracted by the sideline referee’s bald head.

As you can see in the 3-minute highlights video above, the camera continually panned away from the actual soccer action to center the frame on the ref’s head, which does look remarkably similar to the ball.

The Scottish Inverness Caledonian Thistle FC soccer club began livestreaming home games at its Caledonian Stadium for season ticket holders and its pay-per-view audience.

Instead of human camera operators, the club turned to Pixellot, a company that brings AI automation to broadcasts.

The commentator had to apologise today as the camera kept on mistaking the ball for the linesman’s head...

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: November 03, 2020, 01:48:48 AM »
The linked reference (& associated linked article) explains how ECS could currently be above 5C, as indicated by several CMIP6 projections:

Bjordal, J., Storelvmo, T., Alterskjær, K. et al. Equilibrium climate sensitivity above 5 °C plausible due to state-dependent cloud feedback. Nat. Geosci. 13, 718–721 (2020).

Abstract: "The equilibrium climate sensitivity of Earth is defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase that follows a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For decades, global climate models have predicted it as between approximately 2 and 4.5 °C. However, a large subset of models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project predict values exceeding 5 °C. The difference has been attributed to the radiative effects of clouds, which are better captured in these models, but the underlying physical mechanism and thus how realistic such high climate sensitivities are remain unclear. Here we analyse Community Earth System Model simulations and find that, as the climate warms, the progressive reduction of ice content in clouds relative to liquid leads to increased reflectivity and a negative feedback that restrains climate warming, in particular over the Southern Ocean. However, once the clouds are predominantly liquid, this negative feedback vanishes. Thereafter, other positive cloud feedback mechanisms dominate, leading to a transition to a high-sensitivity climate state. Although the exact timing and magnitude of the transition may be model dependent, our findings suggest that the state dependence of the cloud-phase feedbacks is a crucial factor in the evolution of Earth’s climate sensitivity with warming."

See also:

Title: "Guest post: How declining ice in clouds makes high ‘climate sensitivity’ plausible"

Extract: "Simulations from the latest climate models have suggested that the Earth’s climate might be more sensitive to increasing atmospheric CO2 than previously thought."

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