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Messages - nanning

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 28, 2020, 09:30:24 AM »
NSIDC Extent graphs - compare and contrast the Beaufort with the Laptev and the ESS

We can also look at it from the standpoint of a specific day to see the crash. Here it is the sum of Laptev, East Siberian and Kara seas 5 day mean of sea cie extent from NSIDC.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 28, 2020, 04:32:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 27th, 2020:
     5,883,277 km2, a century break increase of 114,107 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record on this date.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.
   
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

2020: 942K km2 versus 2016 (2nd lowest). That is a huge difference!!!

3
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 28, 2020, 02:17:14 AM »
The linked article presents new evidence that the increasing 'Atlantification' of the Arctic Ocean is beginning to release increasing quantities of methane from associated hydrates in the continental slope of the East Siberian coast.

Title: "'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find"

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find

Extract: "Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change."

See also (& the associated image):

Website Title: "The ISSS-2020 Arctic Ocean Expedition"

https://www.aces.su.se/research/projects/the-isss-2020-arctic-ocean-expedition/

Extract: "The International Siberian Shelf Study (ISSS) Program is a Russian-Swedish led international collaboration that spans back about 15 years. The overarching aim of the ISSS Program is to investigate cryosphere-climate-carbon couplings on the extensive East Siberian Arctic Ocean Shelf.

The central focus of the ISSS-2020 expedition is one of the biggest open challenges in climate change science; understanding subsea and coastal permafrost thawing, hydrate collapse and the processes that result in releases of potent greenhouse gases such as methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.

The expedition will run from 26 Sept – 4 Nov 2020 and will depart from and return to the White Sea port of Archangelsk, the cruise track stretching across the entire Arctic rim of the Eurasian margin."

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:43:42 PM »
    Huh?  They say
 "....the Arctic could become ice-free in summer for the first time within the 21st century. Projections with CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models show that this could be the case as early as 2030 to 2050 for higher emission scenarios such as RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway). Some GCMs (global circulation models) show an ice-free Arctic for the first time within this century also for the moderate emission scenarios at a warming of 1.7 °C above pre-industrial. Furthermore, observations reveal that the Arctic summer sea ice declines faster than expected in experiments from GCMs."

     Which is accurate when the term "ice-free in summer" refers to < 1M km2 ASI Extent at September summer minimum.

     Then they are vague about what ASI Extent or Area they plugged into their model.  But in Figure 1a the caption says "Regional warming for the whole Earth if Arctic summer sea ice (ASSI) in June, July and August, mountain glaciers (MG), Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) vanish at a global mean temperature of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial.   (bolding added by me).

     ALL ASI vanishing in June July and August (as in zero Extent-Area-Thickness-Volume) during peak solar input is an entirely different scenario than reaching ASI > 1M km2 Extent for a couple of days in September before refreeze resumes.

     So which is it?  <1M km2 ASI Extent or Area at September minimum, or ASI vanishing to give zero km2 ASI for June 1 - August 31?   Based on the Fig. 1A caption, it seems to be the latter, which renders that first paragraph completely out of context with their simulation and egregiously misleading.   

      Before noticing the aforementioned oddity, my hackles got raised by Figure 4.  It is one of the most easily misinterpreted, and therefore poorly designed, data graphics I have ever seen.  The X axis on a chart implies that X values cause the Y axis values as a response.  But that is not really what is happening in Fig. 4.  A reader could all too easily look at that chart and think it says that at 2.5C above preindustrial global mean temperature (GMT) we should expect 4M km2 summer ASI Area.

    At https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg286961.html#msg286961 our friend gerontocrat made it back safely from his foray into the COVID-19 infested streets to buy booze to let us know that on September 18 ASI Area reached 2,631,888 KM2. 

     2020 is coming in hotter than expected, with a good chance of beating out 2016 as the warmest year in the modern record (disturbing that given solar minimum AND piddling ENSO signal, 2020 should have come in well below 2016 despite 4 more years of incremental warming since 2016, but that's for another rant.)  2020 is nowhere near +2.5C > preindustrial GMT, yet September minimum ASI Area is already well below 4M km2 (and has been for a while). 

     Fig 4. exacerbates the confusion by showing a labeled 1979-2006 average ASI summer minimum sea ice area range of ca. 5.75M - 6.25M km2.

     I think what Fig. 4 is trying to say is that IF ASI vanished in context of GMT at +2.5C, we should expect about 0.10 C additional warming due to the increased Arctic albedo (shown on the right axis).  Whereas, if ASI vanishes for June - July - August  when GMT is at +1.5C, then we should expect an additional 0.18 C of albedo induced warming from that cause.

     So what the heck is the left Y axis referring to?  I tried to help them out by guessing, "Oh, they mean average ASI Area for June-July-August at those GMT values.  Thus about 6.8M km2 average ASI Area for June-July-August at 1.0C.  Conveniently, glennbuck had posted just the chart I needed just below the gero post at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg286915.html#msg286915.  Yes, that fits.

     But then why does the label in Fig 1A say "Minimum Arctic sea ice area (observations) average 1979-2006"?  Those values are the June-August average, not the average of the summer minima.  And what does it add to this chart except confusion?

     Correct me if I'm wrong.  Maybe I'm too dumb or tired to understand what they are saying.  But I think it is the other way around.  It is the authors' responsibility to communicate clearly, a task at which this article fails, and worse than that it very easily leads to gross misrepresentation to, and misunderstanding by, the reader.

     The ASI situation is truly bad and getting worse.  But the entire 3 month period of June-July-August is not going to be ice-free in the 2030-2050 time frame. 

      Conversely, summer minimum ASI Area is already well below 4M km2 at our present +1.1C, so there is no way that September minimum ASI Area at +2.5C GMT will be near 4M km2.  There won't be ANY September ASI Area at 2.5C GMT over preindustrial. 

     At least the fallacies balance each other.  But leading the reader to counteracting fallacies is not good enough, in fact it's a mess.




5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:31:48 PM »
What EEGs Tell Us About COVID-19 and the Brain
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-eegs-covid-brain.html

Researchers from Baylor College of Medicine and the University of Pittsburgh have gathered more than 80 studies, reviewed the data, and identified commonalities that are helping to paint a broader picture of how COVID-19 affects the brain.

The findings, published in Seizure: European Journal of Epilepsy, focused on electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities of the brain. EEG is a test used to evaluate the electrical activity in the brain. Researchers found that about one-third of patients who were given an EEG had abnormal neuroimaging localized in the frontal lobe of the brain.

"We found more than 600 patients that were affected in this way. Before, when we saw this in small groups we weren't sure if this was just a coincidence, but now we can confidently say there is a connection," said Dr. Zulfi Haneef, assistant professor of neurology/neurophysiology at Baylor.

The main reason a patient would be given an EEG is if altered mentation is noted, meaning a patient might have a slowed reaction to stimuli, followed by seizure-like events, speech issues, confusion or inability to wake up after sedation. The most common findings from the EEG were slowing or abnormal electrical discharge, mostly in the frontal lobe.

Some of the EEG alterations found in COVID-19 patients may indicate damage to the brain that might not be able to be repaired after recovering from the disease.

"As we know, the brain is an organ that cannot regenerate, so if you have any damage it will more than likely be permanent or you will not fully recover," Haneef said.

Haneef found the location of the abnormal activity interesting.

"We know that the most likely entry point for the virus is the nose, so there seems to be a connection between the part of the brain that is located directly next to that entry point," he said. "Another interesting observation was that the average age of those affected was 61, one-third were female and two-thirds were males. This suggests that brain involvement in COVID-19 could be more common in older males.  ....

Arun Raj Antony et al, Systematic review of EEG findings in 617 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, Seizure (2020).
https://www.seizure-journal.com/article/S1059-1311(20)30332-0/fulltext

6
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:03:40 PM »
Scary.

Scarier how the russians and asians talk about the hydrate release, and the USA and brits say it will never happen, or will not be catastrophic if it does.

The post about the bacteria above was posted here because it is the only active soil bacteria thread going now.

It appears when the methanotrophs digest the methane, they split out the hydrogen, and release the C.

There is only one researcher working in Antartica, on ice core studies, that is looking at the C in the cores, and he says he thinks the 13/14 shows that the high CO2/CO has signatures that it has been processed by methanotrophs. He also says that in every sample that had bubbles he looked at, that there were dormant methanotrophs.  He believes it is possible that all these gas bubble samples were originally saturated with methane, and that the trophs have slowly been converting over the millennia.
He speculates that the very high geo record of CO2 peaks is actually times that the "hydrate gun" went off, by pointing out that the methanotrophs must have been lofted into the atmosphere to be found in all the ice cores he has looked at.

(citation lost on old hard drive, circa 2003-5 i think)

With the papers postulation of separate populations in the field, if you looked for fossilized bacteria populations in the ice cores, you might be able to ID if they were seabed, soil, or seawater water source. There have been recent studies on the aero populations of microbes of diff families also, they would also likely have a distinct group of families.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:44 PM »
Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so.

Thought this might be in response to my comment where I called herd immunity evil so I will respond.

I am a white male, 64 years old, and go to work every day in one of the poorest communites in Chicago, comprised entirely of persons of color. (30% Hispanic, 70% black) I work for a not for profit that is working with community groups to bring development to a community that has suffered from decades of disinvestment. I've installed gardens, boarded up vacant buildings, connected small businesses to available resources, contributed to the revival of a rich tradition in art, routinely connect with the homeless along the commercial district and direct them to emergency services. As a white man, I have lived a life of privilege, the kind of privilege that all white men benefit from in the U.S. I decided to use the last 15 years of my professional life giving back to the city that I love.

And herd immunity which you are suggesting is the best approach will hurt the most those for whom you profess such concern, communities of color.

8
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:29:39 PM »
Dnem is right. Japan is on the right track, childbearing needs to slow as fast as possible, and most countries are far off from this target. Off the top of my head, population is still growing by about 80 million per year (130m newborn, 50m passing away). So global childbirth needs to fall by 60% just to reach temporary stability. All of humanity's resources should be spent on making the transition to sustainable living, rather than spend the resources on children who will have a bleak future on a dead planet when they become adults.
And still, one reads articles about the catastrophe Japan is in, rather than the catastrophe the rest of us are in.

9
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:15:47 PM »
It would seem ...   :-\

For an example of, why a missing arthropod in the jungle, could be important, you might enjoy the movie 'Medicine Man' ...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicine_Man_(film)#Plot

10
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:07:40 PM »

12
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 27, 2020, 09:40:29 PM »
This post is a follow-on to my last post, with:

The first image showing the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf and Thwaites Ice Tongue on May 23, 2019, with yellow arrows showing my assumed primary compressive stress pathways in this region.  I show this first image as I believe that the thick yellow arrows leading from the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf to the region on the western side of the Big Ear subglacial cavity helps to explain (together with the buttressing action of the ice floating above the Big Ear) the over 140 m of ice height above floatation shown in panel D of the second image.

The third image (from Wang et al. 2019) shows various types of historical El Nino events between 1900 and 2017, with the black bars indicating Extreme El Nino events.  I note that these black bars indicate that since about 1970 Extreme El Nino events have been occurring about every 20-years; which suggests another Extreme El Nino event circa 2035-2036.

The fourth image shows non-MICI computer model perturbation runs from a TARSAN project study presented at the 2020 WAIS Workshop; with the top images showing 2011 ice velocities & differential ice velocities, respectively; while the bottom images show a possible future case where both the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf has become unpinned and concurrently the Thwaites Ice Tongue has floated away and no longer provides buttressing to the 140m high ice cliff on the upstream side of the Big Ear.  My primary concern is that an Extreme El Nino event circa 2035-36 could simultaneously unpin the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelve and induce the ice over the Big Ear to float away; which (in my opinion) could abruptly expose a bare 140m high ice cliff and subject it to MICI-type of calving before the ice would have time to creep sufficient to ensure a MISI-type of glacier retreat into the Byrd Subglacial Basin.

&

Bin Wang et al. (November 5, 2019), "Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño", PNAS, 116 (45) 22512-22517; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911130116

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22512

Abstract
El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.

Caption for the third image: "Changing El Niño types from 1901 to 2017. The ONI bars represent the SSTA averaged in the NINO3.4 region (5°S–5°N, 120°W–170°W) and during the northern winter season from October to the next February (ONDJF). An El Niño event is defined by ONDJF ONI equal to or greater than 0.6 °C (the dashed line). The 33 El Niño events are shown in different color bars: SWB (black), MEP (blue), MCP (red), and successive (yellow), respectively. Gray bars mark the remaining warm neutral years."

13
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 27, 2020, 09:39:28 PM »
This post is intended to help orient periodic readers to better understand the immediately following post.  In this regard:

The first image (from Millian 2017) shows a bathymetric map of the seafloor around the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf and the Thwaites Ice Tongue (with the yellow line showing a circa 2011 ice face), showing the seafloor trough lead directly from the base of the Thwaites Ice Tongue into the Byrd Subglacial Basin, BSB (which is the highest risk path for a potential MICI-type of collapse of the BSB in the coming decades).

The second image shows an image (from Kim et al. 2018) with ice velocities and grounding line locations prior to 2012, for their analysis of potential local collapses of the illustrated subglacial cavities (Little Ear and Big Ear); while the actual collapses that occurred in January of 2012 are shown in the third image.  Also, I note that since 2012 it is commonly assumed that the Thwaites Ice Tongue has lost its structural integrity.

The fourth image shows a 2013 image of crevasses at the base of the Thwaites Ice Tongue, with what I take to be a grounding line circa 1996; indicating that much of the ice at the base of the Thwaites Ice Tongue has been floating for years but is too confined to float away.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 27, 2020, 09:31:12 PM »
Thank you, I like this animation very much
By using it with the forecasts, we could really have a good anticipation of the evolution of the extent at 4 to 6 days, and more by taking into account the atmospheric forecasts.
But I do not have the skills and the equipment to develop such animations.
But I will try, consulting forecasts, to do it in my mind

15
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: October 27, 2020, 09:20:31 PM »
US Firms Fund Deforestation, Abuses In Amazon: Report
https://amazonwatch.org/news/2020/1027-complicity-in-destruction-iii
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-firms-fund-deforestation-abuses-amazon.html

Major US financial firms are helping fund environmental destruction and indigenous rights abuses in the Amazon with billions of dollars in investments in questionable companies, according to a report published Tuesday.

Six top firms—BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Vanguard, Bank of America and Dimensional Fund Advisors—have invested more than $18 billion over the past three years in mining, agribusiness and energy companies involved in a "series of abuses" in the world's biggest rainforest, found the report by the environmental group Amazon Watch and the Association of Brazil's Indigenous Peoples (APIB).

"Major financiers... are using their clients' money to enable the wanton behavior of companies linked to indigenous rights violations and the devastation of the Amazon rainforest," said Amazon Watch program director Christian Poirier.

"This financial complicity in destruction contradicts the climate and human rights pledges touted by some of these firms, exposes their investors to significant risk and contributes dramatically to the world's growing biodiversity and climate crises," he said in a statement.

The report investigates the firms' investments in nine Brazilian and multi-national companies accused of abuses in the Amazon, including mining companies Vale and Anglo American, agribusiness companies Cargill and JBS, and energy company Eletronorte.

It accuses those companies of harmful practices including land seizures, violence against indigenous groups, illegal deforestation and the use of harmful pesticides.



-----------------------------------------------

Hidden Losses Deep In the Amazon Rainforest
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-hidden-losses-deep-amazon-rainforest.html

... "Our nostalgia was correct—certain birds are much less common than they used to be," Stouffer said. "If animal patterns are changing in the absence of landscape change, it signals a sobering warning that simply preserving forests will not maintain rainforest biodiversity."

In general, the birds that have experienced the most dramatic declines live on or near the forest floor where they forage on arthropods, mostly insects.

... The Musician Wren is an iconic voice in the Amazon rainforest, but new research shows that it is declining even in the untouched parts of the world's largest rainforest. Listen ...

Philip C Stouffer et al. Long‐term change in the avifauna of undisturbed Amazonian rainforest: ground‐foraging birds disappear and the baseline shifts, Ecology Letters (2020)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ele.13628

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2020, 06:34:29 PM »

The final image makes a 'prediction' for the freeze-over date for the Laptev. The image takes a copy of the blue line from 2012, colors it gold and moves it over exactly horizontally until it extends the most recent 2020 date. A dotted green line is then dropped from the intercept down to the calendar date, intercepting it in late November, almost a full month later than the previous record from 2012.
The assumption is that the Laptev will freeze to maximum almost verically/.

If you look at its neighbour, the Kara, you will see that while this used to be the case in that sea, it no longer is, at least not every year. This tends to show especially in the sea ice area graphs. Sometimes ice growth to maximum is in fits and starts, and sometimes the winter maximum is not 100%.

My speculation is that one year the Laptev is going to go the same way - but in which year?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 27, 2020, 06:00:52 PM »
0.2 Degrees C Locked In: Ice Loss Due to Warming Leads to Warming Due to Ice Loss: A Vicious Circle
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-ice-loss-due-vicious-circle.html



The loss of huge ice masses can contribute to the warming that is causing this loss and further risks. A new study now quantifies this feedback by exploring long-term if-then scenarios. If the Arctic summer sea ice were to melt completely, a scenario that is likely to become reality at least temporarily within this century, this could eventually add roughly 0.2 degrees C to global warming. It is, however, not in addition to IPCC projections of future warming, since these already take the relevant mechanisms into account. Still, the scientists have now separated the effects of the ice loss from other effects and quantified it.

The 0.2 degrees C rise is substantial, given that global mean temperature is currently about one degree higher than in pre-industrial times, and governments worldwide have agreed to stop the increase well below two degrees.

"This is not a short-term risk. Earth's ice masses are huge, which makes them very important for our Earth system as a whole—it also means that their response to anthropogenic climate change, especially that of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, unfolds on longer timescales. But even if some of the changes might take hundreds or thousands of years to manifest, it's possible we trigger them within just a couple of decades," says Ricarda Winkelmann who leads the research group.


a Regional warming for the whole Earth if Arctic summer sea ice (ASSI) in June, July and August, mountain glaciers (MG), Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) vanish at a global mean temperature of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial. b Same as in (a) with an additional zoom-in of the Arctic region if only the Arctic summer sea ice vanishes, which might happen until the end of the century. The light blue line indicates the region of removed Arctic summer sea ice extent, where its concentration in CLIMBER-2 is 15% or higher. In all panels, the average additional warming on top of 1.5 °C is shown in absolute degree.

Nico Wunderling, Matteo Willeit, Jonathan F. Donges, Ricarda Winkelmann (2020): Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice. Nature Communications,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2020, 05:43:55 PM »
Holy shit.

The unprecedented ocean heat on the Siberian shelf has triggered the Siberian shelf clathrate "methane bomb".

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

The international team onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh said most of the bubbles were currently dissolving in the water but methane levels at the surface were four to eight times what would normally be expected and this was venting into the atmosphere.

19
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: October 27, 2020, 04:57:15 PM »
But we have to wait for a peer-reviewd paper next year to find out how whoops! it really is.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find
'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find
Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

Quote
Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

The international team onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh said most of the bubbles currently are dissolving in the water but methane levels at the surface are four to eight times what would normally be expected and this is venting into the atmosphere.

At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing,” said the Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson of Stockholm University in a satellite call from the vessel.

The scientists – who are part of a multi-year International Shelf Study Expedition – stressed their findings are preliminary. The scale of methane releases will not be confirmed until they return, analyse the data and have their studies published in a peer-reviewed journal.

But the discovery of potentially destabilised slope frozen methane raises concerns that a new tipping point has been reached that could increase the speed of global heating. The Arctic is considered ground zero in the debate about the vulnerability of frozen methane deposits in the ocean. With the Arctic temperature now rising more than twice as fast as the global average, the question of when – or even whether – they will be released into the atmosphere has been a matter of considerable uncertainty in climate computer models.

The 60-member team on the Akademik Keldysh believe they are the first to observationally confirm the methane release is already under way across a wide area of the slope about 600km offshore.


The latest discovery potentially marks the third source of methane emissions from the region. Semiletov, who has been studying this area for two decades, has previously reported the gas is being released from the shelf of the Arctic – the biggest of any sea.

For the second year in a row, his team have found crater-like pockmarks in the shallower parts of the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea that are discharging bubble jets of methane, which is reaching the sea surface at levels tens to hundreds of times higher than normal. This is similar to the craters and sinkholes reported from inland Siberian tundra earlier this autumn.

20
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 27, 2020, 04:41:22 PM »
meanwhile,

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/26/asia/vietnam-typhoon-molave-evacuate-intl-hnk/index.html
Vietnam is preparing to evacuate nearly 1.3 million people ahead of Typhoon Molave, which is expected to make landfall on Wednesday.

Typhoon Molave
, with wind speeds of 125 kilometers (77 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 150 kph (93.2 mph), left the main Philippine island of Luzon earlier on Monday, with heavy rain causing seven landslides and floods in 11 areas, the disaster agency said.
There were no reports of casualties, but 12 fishermen at sea failed to return to Catanduanes province off the country's eastern coast. Molave, known as Typhoon Quinta in the Philippines, was the 17th typhoon to hit the country this year.
It will be the fourth storm to hit Vietnam in a tumultuous month, during which floods and landslides have killed 130 people and left 20 missing in the central region. When Molave makes landfall, wind speeds are forecast to reach 135 kph (83.8 mph).

21
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 27, 2020, 04:34:32 PM »
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
And come next Tuesday, the remains may be raining from Iceland to Novaya Zemla

22
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: October 27, 2020, 03:43:22 PM »
Yes, long term planning is highly challenging. However, the impact of humans on the planet goes far, far beyond the generation of electricity and I don't think we will be able to come close to sustainably generating the amount of electricity that will be needed to electrify that vastly overlarge global economy. I see falling fertility as a consequence of the "mess of messes" we are in and if I was doing the planning I would focus on easing the transition, not increasing fertility.

23
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:49:10 PM »
Over on the COVID thread Crandles said:
"Japan was already down at 1.42 children per child bearing age woman. That is nowhere near 'population grows infinitely' nor 'stable population' territory."

And Richard said:
"Managing the transition at the stage Japan is at, requires having more children. Stable requires R=1 and its been well under 1 in Japan for decades."

I get the basic math behind both of these points. However, Japan is an "advanced" economy with a strong culture of revering the elderly. I believe the world would be far better off reducing the population as quickly as possible, probably down to 2 or 3 billion (with a concomitant decrease in the size of global GDP).  This will require pushing through a large aged cohort. I'm not sure what R should be at the current population to be the right level to support a population of say 30% of the current level, but obviously it is <1 for now. If Japan can't do it, who can?


24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:45:00 PM »
With research continuing to show evidence of heart, lung, kidney and brain damage in patients that have recovered and with multiple vaccines under development, I would just like to say that herd immunity is a profoundly stupid, even evil, strategy.

Never mind the damage to placenta, the ileum in the lower intestine and the onset of diabetes which cannot yet be explained...

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:24:34 PM »
Germany Sees Exponential Rise In Cases

Germany recorded 11,409 new daily infections and 42 deaths in the last 24 hours, according to the latest data from the country's infections disease agency, the Robert Koch Institute.

More than 280 regions across the nation are now considered coronavirus hotspots, having exceeded the government threshold of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the past seven days.

The number of new coronavirus infections in Germany is likely to reach 20,000 a cases/day at the end of this week, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has said.

“We are dealing with exponential growth,” Altmaier told a German-French economic conference via video link in Berlin.

“In Germany the number of new infections is rising by 70-75% compared to the week before.”

Altmaier’s forecast shows that Germany is contending with a faster upswing in coronavirus cases than previously expected. At the end of September, Chancellor Angela Merkel said there could be 19,200 cases per day by Christmas.

------------------------------------

‘It’s Apocalyptic’: El Paso Cardiologist Fears Non-COVID Patients Will Die Due to Hospital Overflow
https://kvia.com/coronavirus/2020/10/26/its-apocalyptic-el-paso-cardiologist-fears-non-covid-patients-will-die-due-to-lack-of-hospital-capacity/



EL PASO, Texas-- Hospital capacity has a prominent El Paso cardiologist fearing for his patients.

"We are canceling every single elective procedure but as you understand, cardiac procedures most of the time are not elective if you're having chest pains, if you're having fainting spells because you're heart is not performing well you need those procedures preformed," said Dr. Juan Taveras, a cardiologist with Las Palmas Del Sol.

As ABC-7 has reported, hospitalizations are up 300% in less than a month's time. El Paso hospitals are at full capacity, and providing care to non-Covid patients has become increasingly challenging.

"To me this is apocalyptic, there is no other way of describing it," said Taveras.

Some area hospitals have already made plans to voluntarily air-lift non-Covid patients in the intensive care unit to other Texas cities. While those patients will be receiving the care they need, for Taveras not being able to treat his patients is concerning.

"This is not only a concern from a physician who has a relationship for a patient for the last 20 to 25 years it's also the concern for the family members that are not able to travel to San Antonio, Houston or Austin," Taveras said.

University Medical Center's Chief Medical Officer Dr. Joel Hedryx offered this assessment of the capacity crisis on Monday afternoon.

"We realized that this is the unexpected (huh?), this is something that we've not had to do before, we're having to house the patients here for a day or two until they are able to go home," Hedryx said.

Ultimately, Taveras fears this capacity issue will lead ambulance bays to be backlogged forcing patients to wait in line for critical care.

"This is a disaster, people are going to start dying, as a matter a fact they started dying already - not because they have the Covid, but from the Covid because the Covid has impaired the ability to deliver care. That's what is happening right now," Taveras concluded.

----------------------------------------

Coronavirus Northern Ireland: Antrim Hospital 'Beyond Capacity' as Five Deaths and 727 New Cases of Covid-19 Confirmed
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-northern-ireland-antrim-hospital-beyond-capacity-as-five-deaths-and-727-new-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-39667830.html

Antrim Area Hospital is "operating beyond capacity" with 27 sick patients awaiting admission, the Northern Trust has warned.

Patients were on Monday evening asked not to attend the hospital's emergency department unless urgent medical care was requited.

The warning came as the Trust warned Northern Ireland is "in the midst of the second Covid surge" with the hospital taking care of very ill patients.

Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service (NIAS) said it was "extremely busy" on Monday evening and asked for patience.

"We will prioritise calls to provide the quickest response to the most seriously ill or injured," it said.

Over the past seven days 6,828 people have tested positive for the virus, with 1,714 in the Belfast council area and 810 in Derry City and Strabane.

There are currently 342 Covid-19 inpatients in Northern Ireland's hospitals, with 39 in intensive care units.

Hospital bed occupancy currently stands at 96%, with 9 intensive care unit beds remaining free.

In Northern Ireland's care homes there are currently 99 active Covid-19 outbreaks.

---------------------------------

Idaho Hospitals Near Capacity, May Send New Coronavirus Patients to Portland, Seattle
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/10/idaho-hospitals-near-capacity-may-send-new-coronavirus-patients-to-portland-seattle.html

COEUR D’ALENE, Idaho. — People with COVID-19 in Northern Idaho soon may have to be sent to Portland or Seattle, 400 miles away, because the region’s hospitals are nearing capacity.

Kootenai Health hospital said in a statement Wednesday that their hospital is at 99% capacity for patients. The facility is also short-staffed, as demand for nurses grows with the rise in COVID-19 cases throughout the country, the statement said.

https://www.kh.org/regional-hospitals-reach-full-capacity/

“Because all regional hospitals are experiencing the same situation, there will be limited opportunities to transfer patients to other facilities once at capacity,” the hospital said. “If there is no room available, Kootenai Health is currently looking at hospitals in Seattle or Portland to find space to transfer patients, but it is very limited.”

As of Wednesday morning, Kootenai Health, based in Coeur D’Alene, had 31 COVID-19 inpatients and 11 required critical care. Chief Physician Executive Karen Cabell told KREM the hospital nearing capacity at its current levels is “unprecedented.”

Kootenai Health will not turn anybody away, but there may be long wait times and patients might receive treatment in different locations such as the waiting room, Cabell said.

In the southern Idaho city of Twin Falls, St. Luke’s Hospital has had to cancel all elective surgery for the month to accommodate an influx of COVID-19 patients. One in every four patients there is sick with COVID-19.

--------------------------------

Hospitals are Full But Some Parts of Idaho Refuse Mask Rules
https://omaha.com/news/national/hospitals-are-full-but-some-parts-of-idaho-refuse-mask-rules/article_212901df-c55e-5d9c-b937-4a27a0a638e8.html

BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Moments after hearing an Idaho hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and looking at sending people as far away as Seattle for care, members of a regional health department board voted Thursday to repeal a local mask mandate.

... the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.

Board member Walt Kirby said he was giving up on the idea of controlling the spread of coronavirus.

“I personally do not care whether anybody wears a mask or not. If they want to be dumb enough to walk around and expose themselves and others, that's fine with me,” Kirby said. “Nobody's wearing the damned mask anyway. ... I'm sitting back and watching them catch it and die. Hopefully I'll live through it.”

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'”
he told the medical professionals who testified.

Similar scenes — with doctors and nurses asking officials for help, only to be met with reluctance or even open skepticism — have played out across the conservative state. Idaho is sixth in the nation for new coronavirus cases per capita, with the average number of confirmed cases increasing by more than 55% every day over the past two weeks.

Still, Republican Gov. Brad Little has declined to issue a statewide mask mandate or limit crowd sizes beyond requiring social distancing at large events and in businesses, which is seldom enforced. Instead, Little has left it up to local health departments and school districts to make the tough decisions that sometimes come with blowback from the public.

In central Idaho, Adams County commissioners have approved a resolution rescinding all orders, recommendations and restrictions related to COVID-19

--------------------------------

... and it's only October

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2020, 01:46:01 PM »
NSIDC Extent graphs - compare and contrast the Beaufort with the Laptev and the ESS

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 27, 2020, 01:36:47 PM »
Two New Studies Substantially Advance Understanding of Currents That Help Regulate Climate
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-substantially-advance-currents-climate.html


Schematic of circulation in the Nordic Seas shows the pathways of warm, saline inflow (red arrows) and cold, dense outflow (green arrows). Abbreviations include: East Greenland Current (EGC); Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet (IFSJ); Norwegian Atlantic Current (NAC); North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC), and North Icelandic Jet (NIJ). Credit: Huang et al (2020)

Two studies available online in Nature Communications shed new light on a critical driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), sometimes known as the "ocean conveyor belt." Together, these give greater insight into the northern origins of the AMOC and potential impacts of warming on regions of the North Atlantic that are critical to this system of currents.

One study, led by Jie Huang, a former guest student at WHOI and currently a researcher at Tsinghua University in China, found that a common source supplies the pathways of the coldest and densest water in the AMOC. Huang arrived at this conclusion by using a new method known as "sigma-pi distance" to analyze a historical set of oceanographic data that includes the temperature and salinity of water samples collected in the region since the 1980s. In doing so, Huang was able to trace the water spilling over the Greenland-Scotland Ridge on the seafloor and into the North Atlantic via the Denmark Strait and the Faroe Bank Channel back to the same location in the Greenland Sea.

This flow of deep water is formed as surface waters in the region cool, releasing heat to the atmosphere, becoming colder and denser. Scientists have long suspected that warming in in the Arctic and North Atlantic could disrupt the formation of this deep water formation, causing the AMOC to change or weaken and cause significant changes to regional and global climate patterns.

Huang also found in his analysis that the location of deep water formation in the Greenland Sea has shifted since the 1980s from the periphery of the slowly turning counter-clockwise circulation—known as the Greenland Sea Gyre—to the center, where it is today.

"Where and how dense water is formed in the Nordic Seas is likely to change in a warming climate," said Huang. "This could affect the composition and the pathways of the dense water supplying the overflows."

The other paper, led by University of Bergen physical oceanographer and former WHOI guest student Stefanie Semper used four independent sets of observations to provide clear evidence of a previously unknown current following the seafloor slope between Iceland and the Faroe Islands. This so-called Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet supplies as much as half of the water overflowing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge into the North Atlantic via the Faroe Bank Channel, making it a major component of the overturning circulation in the region.

Jie Huang et al. Sources and upstream pathways of the densest overflow water in the Nordic Seas, Nature Communications (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19050-y

Stefanie Semper et al. The Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet: a conduit for dense water toward the Faroe Bank Channel overflow, Nature Communications (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19049-5

28
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: October 27, 2020, 01:32:27 PM »
Two New Studies Substantially Advance Understanding of Currents That Help Regulate Climate
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-substantially-advance-currents-climate.html


Schematic of circulation in the Nordic Seas shows the pathways of warm, saline inflow (red arrows) and cold, dense outflow (green arrows). Abbreviations include: East Greenland Current (EGC); Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet (IFSJ); Norwegian Atlantic Current (NAC); North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC), and North Icelandic Jet (NIJ). Credit: Huang et al (2020)

Two studies available online in Nature Communications shed new light on a critical driver of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), sometimes known as the "ocean conveyor belt." Together, these give greater insight into the northern origins of the AMOC and potential impacts of warming on regions of the North Atlantic that are critical to this system of currents.

One study, led by Jie Huang, a former guest student at WHOI and currently a researcher at Tsinghua University in China, found that a common source supplies the pathways of the coldest and densest water in the AMOC. Huang arrived at this conclusion by using a new method known as "sigma-pi distance" to analyze a historical set of oceanographic data that includes the temperature and salinity of water samples collected in the region since the 1980s. In doing so, Huang was able to trace the water spilling over the Greenland-Scotland Ridge on the seafloor and into the North Atlantic via the Denmark Strait and the Faroe Bank Channel back to the same location in the Greenland Sea.

This flow of deep water is formed as surface waters in the region cool, releasing heat to the atmosphere, becoming colder and denser. Scientists have long suspected that warming in in the Arctic and North Atlantic could disrupt the formation of this deep water formation, causing the AMOC to change or weaken and cause significant changes to regional and global climate patterns.

Huang also found in his analysis that the location of deep water formation in the Greenland Sea has shifted since the 1980s from the periphery of the slowly turning counter-clockwise circulation—known as the Greenland Sea Gyre—to the center, where it is today.

"Where and how dense water is formed in the Nordic Seas is likely to change in a warming climate," said Huang. "This could affect the composition and the pathways of the dense water supplying the overflows."

The other paper, led by University of Bergen physical oceanographer and former WHOI guest student Stefanie Semper used four independent sets of observations to provide clear evidence of a previously unknown current following the seafloor slope between Iceland and the Faroe Islands. This so-called Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet supplies as much as half of the water overflowing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge into the North Atlantic via the Faroe Bank Channel, making it a major component of the overturning circulation in the region.

Jie Huang et al. Sources and upstream pathways of the densest overflow water in the Nordic Seas, Nature Communications (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19050-y

Stefanie Semper et al. The Iceland-Faroe Slope Jet: a conduit for dense water toward the Faroe Bank Channel overflow, Nature Communications (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19049-5

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2020, 01:25:23 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 26-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,573,553 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,573,553    km2      
-1,384,287    km2   <   2010's average.
-482,669    km2   <   2019
-2,443,110    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    89    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    13    k   gain
Central Seas___    76    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    11    k   gain
Central Arctic_    21    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Kara_________    6    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 89 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 125 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,384 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,443 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 464 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 483 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 1,154 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 26-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,705,794 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 101 k, 28 k less than the 2010's average gain of 129k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,770 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,744 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1088 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 644 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,548 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
Area and extent daily gains continue to gradually increase but below the 10 year average.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
This is a very serious situation, if the report is accurate. Risking transmission from medical staff to patients is a devil's bargain. How many will that discourage from seeking treatment for other ills?

Can they call out army medical corps ?  Are there no cross border treatment agreements ?

sidd

There are some but their use is really limited. The Netherlands sends cases to Germany but not more then 10 per day due to limitations on the amount of special transport vehicles available.

We have some Belgian patients but that will be on a similar order of magnitude so that will not really help with the current numbers.

However when the Covid cases ramp up the hospitals stop performing all elective surgery that can be cancelled. So there is a high chance that the positive without symptoms personnel will work with active covid cases.


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2020, 12:13:23 PM »
Big waves are again forecasted for the siberian side. Strong winds are usual at this time of the year, but the fetch should be zero or almost zero. Here, winds are blowing over open water. As a consequences, waves of 4 - 6 meters with a period of 8 - 10 seconds for Chukchi and Kara sea... A good washing again.
Hard for ice to form in seas with 4 meter waves. How deep does the mixing of water occur in such seas?

An essay from Peter Wadhams 2003  How Does Arctic Sea Ice Form and Decay?
Quote
How ice forms in rough water
If the initial ice formation occurs in rough water, for instance at the extreme ice edge in rough seas such as the Greenland or Bering Seas, then the high energy and turbulence in the wave field maintains the new ice as a dense suspension of frazil, rather than forming nilas. This suspension undergoes cyclic compression because of the particle orbits in the wave field, and during the compression phase the crystals can freeze together to form small coherent cakes of slush which grow larger by accretion from the frazil ice and more solid through continued freezing between the crystals. This becomes known as pancake ice because collisions between the cakes pump frazil ice suspension onto the edges of the cakes, then the water drains away to leave a raised rim of ice which gives each cake the appearance of a pancake. At the ice edge the pancakes are only a few cm in diameter, but they gradually grow in diameter and thickness with increasing distance from the ice edge, until they may reach 3-5 m diameter and 50-70 cm thickness. The surrounding frazil continues to grow and supply material to the growing pancakes.

At greater distances inside the ice edge, where the wave field is calmed, the pancakes may begin to freeze together in groups and eventually coalesce to form first large floes, then finally a continuous sheet of first-year ice known as consolidated pancake ice. Such ice has a different bottom morphology from normal sea ice. The pancakes at the time of consolidation are jumbled together and rafted over one another, and freeze together in this way with the frazil acting as "glue". The result is a very rough, jagged bottom, with rafted cakes doubling or tripling the normal ice thickness, and with the edges of pancakes protruding upwards to give a surface topography resembling a "stony field".

This open access article from Nature covers winter storms in much greater detail, describing both positive and negative effects on ice growth.

Winter storms accelerate the demise of sea ice in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean
Robert M. Graham, Polona Itkin, […]Mats A. Granskog    25 June 2019
Quote
Abstract
A large retreat of sea-ice in the ‘stormy’ Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean has become evident through a series of record minima for the winter maximum sea-ice extent since 2015. Results from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition, a five-month-long (Jan-Jun) drifting ice station in first and second year pack-ice north of Svalbard, showcase how sea-ice in this region is frequently affected by passing winter storms. Here we synthesise the interdisciplinary N-ICE2015 dataset, including independent observations of the atmosphere, snow, sea-ice, ocean, and ecosystem. We build upon recent results and illustrate the different mechanisms through which winter storms impact the coupled Arctic sea-ice system. These short-lived and episodic synoptic-scale events transport pulses of heat and moisture into the Arctic, which temporarily reduce radiative cooling and henceforth ice growth. Cumulative snowfall from each sequential storm deepens the snow pack and insulates the sea-ice, further inhibiting ice growth throughout the remaining winter season. Strong winds fracture the ice cover, enhance ocean-ice-atmosphere heat fluxes, and make the ice more susceptible to lateral melt. In conclusion, the legacy of Arctic winter storms for sea-ice and the ice-associated ecosystem in the Atlantic Sector lasts far beyond their short lifespan.

<>

Winter storms enhance ocean mixing, heat fluxes, and ice melt
Sea ice dampens energy transfers between the atmosphere and ocean, and therefore the Arctic Ocean is traditionally considered to be energetically ‘quiet’ with weak turbulent mixing58. However, strong winds during the N-ICE2015 winter storms enhanced ice drift speeds54 (Figs 3a and 5a), which increased ocean-ice velocity shear59. These processes were found to generate mixing in the upper ocean, and led to increased transfer of ocean heat towards the ice59,60 (Fig. 5c–e). Observed winter ocean-ice heat fluxes typically more than tripled from 2 W m−2 to 7 W m−2 during storm periods (Fig. 5c, Methods), further impeding ice growth and in several cases initiating bottom melt59,60 (Fig. 3b).

Ocean mixing is particularly important in many regions of the Arctic Ocean because warm water of Atlantic origin is located below cold and fresh Polar Surface Water61. Along the continental slope north of Svalbard, warm Atlantic Water (>2 °C) is found close to the surface (Figs 1, 5e). Vertical mixing thus generates enhanced ocean heat fluxes. The magnitude of this heat flux is dependent on the mixing rate, as well as the depth and temperature of the warm water. During the N-ICE2015 winter drift over the deep Nansen Basin, Modified Atlantic Water (>0 °C) was found at approximately 100 m depth62. Under calm conditions in the deep Nansen Basin, Meyer et al.60 observed ocean heat fluxes at the pycnocline of approximately 3 W m−2 (Fig. S1). However, during storm periods, wind-driven mixing almost doubled the pycnocline heat fluxes to 5.5 W m−2 (Methods, Fig. S4a). These enhanced ocean heat fluxes are relatively small in comparison to changes in the atmospheric surface energy budget during storms37 and were insufficient to induce ice bottom melt, but nevertheless acted to further suppress ice growth (Figs 2e and 5c). Previous work using autonomous buoy measurements have inferred enhanced ice-ocean heat fluxes during winter storms in the Beaufort Sea25. It is therefore expected that these conditions in the Nansen Basin are representative of large areas of the central Arctic Ocean.

Accepted that the water has to be cold enough to form frazil ice.

Thanks for the post above A-team. I'll check out the error anomaly. That area seems already identified as possible out of range results.

32
A massive calving session happened again at Zachariae Isstrøm between Oct 20 and Oct 26 2020. Nice to have these Sentinel 1 Data now while it is dark up north.

Please click on image to animate!

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:51:49 AM »
Ultrasounds Show Impact of COVID-19 on the Heart
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-ultrasounds-impact-covid-heart.html

Cardiac ultrasounds (also known as echocardiograms) are providing a view of the heart and the impact of the COVID-19 virus on patients. A new study by researchers at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai identifies different types of cardiac structural damage experienced by COVID-19 patients after cardiac injury that can be associated with deadly conditions including heart attack, pulmonary embolism, heart failure, and myocarditis. These abnormalities are associated with higher risk of death among hospitalized patients. The findings, published the October 26 issue of the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.

The international, retrospective study expands on Mount Sinai's previous research showing that myocardial injury (heart damage) is prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with higher risk of mortality. That study focused on the patients' levels of troponin—proteins that are released when the heart muscle becomes damaged—and their outcomes (higher troponin levels mean greater heart damage).

This new work looked at the presence of cardiac troponin elevations in combination with the presence of echocardiographic abnormalities, and found that the combination was associated with worse prognosis and mortality than troponin elevations alone.


Among patients with Covid-19 who underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), cardiac structural abnormalities were present in nearly two-thirds of patients with myocardial injury. Cardiac structural abnormalities included right ventricular dysfunction, left ventricular wall motion abnormalities, global left ventricular dysfunction, diastolic dysfunction and pericardial effusions. LV = Left Ventricular.

Researchers found that patients with myocardial injury had more electrocardiographic abnormalities, higher inflammatory biomarkers, and an increased prevalence of TTE abnormalities when compared to patients without heart injury.

Characterization of Myocardial Injury in Patients With COVID-19
https://www.onlinejacc.org/content/76/18/2043

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:44:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,769,170 KM2 as at 26-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 136k, 7 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 129k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 2,214 k, which is 976 k, 31% less than the 10 year average of 3,190 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  853 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  969 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,332 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  1,557 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,719 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 32.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 136 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.50 million km2, 1.38 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

For the 2020-21 maximum NOT to be a record low, remaining extent gain has to be more than 20.5% above the average remaining extent gain of the last 10 years. This is greater than any of at least the last 13 years.
_________________________________________
3 days of extent gains above average gains but below 2019 gains, so 2020 is #1 by a greater amount.
However, gains in 2016 were very low at this time, which means that 2020 extent is starting to play catchup with 2016, which was lowest from the 27th October.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:15:34 AM »
The Herd Immunity Theory in Question: Antibodies 'Fall Rapidly After Infection'
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-asymptomatic-virus-antibodies-sooner.html

Antibodies against the coronavirus declined rapidly in the British population in summer, a study found on Tuesday, suggesting protection after infection may not be long-lasting and raising the prospect of waning immunity in the community.

Although virus immunity is a complex and murky topic and may be assisted by T cells, as well as B cells that can stimulate swift production of antibodies following virus re-exposure, the researchers said the experience of other coronaviruses suggested immunity might not be enduring.

The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28

More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far.

The downward trend was observed in all areas of the country and age groups, but not in health workers, which could indicate repeated or higher initial exposure to the virus, the authors suggest. The decline was largest in people aged 75 and above compared to younger people, and also in people with suspected rather than confirmed infection, indicating that the antibody response varies by age and with the severity of illness.

The decline was largest in people who didn’t report a history of COVID-19 (asymptomatic), dropping by almost two-thirds (64.0%) between rounds one and three, compared to a decrease of 22.3% in people who had an infection confirmed by lab testing.

... After accounting for the accuracy of the test, confirmed by laboratory evaluation, and the country’s population characteristics, the study found that antibody prevalence declined from 6.0% to 4.8% and then 4.4% over the three months.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/MEDRXIV-2020-219725v1-Elliott.pdf

------------------------------------

... other studies

Studies Show Long-Term COVID-19 Immune Response
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/studies-show-long-term-covid-19-immune-response

... More than 95% of patients showed seroconversion—the presence of detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies—and neutralizing antibodies in samples 8 days after symptom onset, but the magnitude of the neutralizing antibody response appears to depend on disease severity, with lower peak antibody levels in individuals exhibiting milder disease.

In some individuals with low initial levels of peak neutralizing antibodies (mean infectious dose [ID50], 100 to 300), antibodies were undetectable after 50 days, while some patients with high initial levels (ID50, 1,000 to 3,500) maintained neutralizing antibodies for more than 60 days after initial symptoms.

"In some individuals, SARS-CoV-2 infection generates only a transient neutralizing antibody response that rapidly wanes," the authors suggest. In contrast, antibody levels in patients with high initial levels (ID50  > 4,000) declined but remained in the 1,000 to 3,500 range through the end of the study period.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00813-8

Portuguese researchers found that 90% of SARS-CoV-2–positive individuals had detectable antibodies from 40 days up to 7 months post-infection, with higher levels in patients with more severe disease. 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eji.202048970

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/idmm-sad102320.php

------------------------------------

Tumbling numbers of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic are likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly ageing nation, Reuters reports.

Japan has the most aged society in the world, with more than 35% of its population expected to be 65 and over by 2050, a trend that poses risks for economic growth and straining government finances.

Recently published official data showed the number of notified pregnancies in the three months to July fell 11.4% from a year earlier, while the number of marriages over the same period dropped 36.9%. The sharp decline in marriages matters because the majority of babies in Japan are born in wedlock.

----------------------------------------

Re: Thailand vs Belgium

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg250745.html#msg250745

36
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »

-----------------------------



-----------------------------
I don't know who prepared this map, but it looks like propaganda. If US and UK  are best prepated, it means that the author likes a specific way of working. I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.
How things change. It's getting very obvious that Thailand was a lot better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

And US and UK has tought us preparedness doesn't matter if leadership is incompetent.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: October 27, 2020, 06:11:08 AM »
A new material for separating CO2 from industrial waste gases, natural gas, or biogas

It is capable of completely removing CO2 from gas mixtures without chemically binding CO2.

" The new material is an inorganic-organic hybrid. The chemical basis is clay minerals consisting of hundreds of individual glass platelets. These are only one nanometre thick each, and arranged precisely one above the other.

Between the individual glass plates there are organic molecules that act as spacers. Their shape and chemical properties have been selected so that the pore spaces created are optimally tailored to accumulate CO2. Only carbon dioxide molecules can penetrate into the pore system of the material and be retained there.

In contrast, methane, nitrogen, and other exhaust gas components must remain outside due to the size of their molecules. The researchers have used the so-called molecular sieve effect to increase the material's selectivity for CO2."

https://www.biofueldaily.com/reports/A_new_material_for_separating_CO2_from_industrial_waste_gases_natural_gas_or_biogas_999.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666386420302253?via%3Dihub

38
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:44:36 AM »
This happened just a few blocks down from my house, and I knew from first hand and from many accounts from friends, neighbors and others, that much of the arson (and attempted arson) in my neighborhood was planned and carried out by rightwing hoodlums.

As time has gone on, this observation has been more and more, finally, confirmed in the major press, though probably too late to change the perceptions of many, especially on the right, that this was a case of people in my neighborhood basically deciding to burn our own neighborhood down.


‘Boogaloo Boi’ charged in fire of Minneapolis police precinct during George Floyd protest


Ivan Harrison Hunter, a Texas rightwing extremist, bragged about helping to set the fire then was seen shooting 13 rounds at the building


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/texas-boogaloo-boi-minneapolis-police-building-george-floyd

Quote
A rightwing extremist boasted of driving from Texas to Minneapolis to help set fire to a police precinct during the George Floyd protests, federal prosecutors said.

US attorney Erica MacDonald said on Friday that she had charged Ivan Harrison Hunter, a 26-year-old Texas resident, with traveling across state lines to participate in a riot. The charges are the latest example of far-right extremists attempting to use violence to escalate national protests against police brutality into an uprising against the government, and even full civil war.

The case also reveals the extent of the coordination between violent members of the nascent far-right “Boogaloo Bois” movement operating in different cities across the country....

Hunter is the third alleged “Boogaloo Boi” to be charged in connection with protests in Minneapolis.

Across the country, the “Boogaloo” movement has been linked to more than two dozen arrests and at least five deaths this year, including the alleged plot to kidnap the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer.

39
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:29:51 AM »
this is partly OT but,


Microbial Diversity Below The Seafloor Is As Rich As On Earth's Surface



"D'Hondt analyzed 299 samples of marine sediment collected as core samples from 40 sites around the globe. Their sample depths ranged from the seafloor to 678 meters below it. To accurately determine the diversity of microbial communities, the authors extracted and sequenced DNA from each frozen sample under the same clean laboratory condition.

The 16S rRNA gene sequences (approximately 50 million sequences) obtained through comprehensive next-generation sequencing were analyzed to determine microbial community composition in each sample. From these 50 million sequences, the research team discovered nearly 40,000 different types of microorganisms in marine sediment, with diversity generally decreasing with depth. The team found that microbial community composition differs significantly between organic-rich sediment of continental margins and nutrient-poor sediment of the open ocean, and that the presence or absence of oxygen and the concentration of organic matter are major factors in determining community composition.

By comparing their results to previous studies of topsoil and seawater, the researchers discovered that each of these three global biomes--marine sediment, topsoil, and seawater--has different microbial communities but similar total diversity. "It was an unexpected discovery that microbial diversity in the dark, energy-limited world beneath the seafloor is as diverse as in Earth's surface biomes," said Hoshino.

Furthermore, by combining the estimates of bacterial and archaeal diversity for these three biomes, the researchers found that bacteria are far more diverse than archaea--microbes distinct from bacteria and known for living in extreme environments--on Earth."

http://astrobiology.com/2020/10/microbial-diversity-below-the-seafloor-is-as-rich-as-on-earths-surface.html


40
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:12:00 AM »
I will not condemn the counterviolence perpetrated by America's left in this day and age.

Quote
Nobody in the world, nobody in history, has ever gotten their freedom by appealing to the moral sense of the people who were oppressing them.

- Assata Shakur

Non-violent protesters who are beaten by the State authority (in this case heavily militarized police) gain sympathy from the public at large. The American public supported the peaceful protests of the civil rights era because they witnessed savagery perpetrated by the State. The news media of the right failed to maintain control of the narrative that violence was occurring and have spent the better part of 53 years preparing for the inevitable reignition in this conflict for rights. And now the media has an unprecedented ability to deny that peaceful protest is taking place, or spin the peaceful protests as riots. Pacifism does not work when the public does not see it.

When the police claim there was a riot, the news media reports on that information to appear non-biased and then nobody of a comparable size or weight to the authority is brought on to say "No. Obviously this was not a riot." The protesters may have been peaceful does not align the general public against the authority as well as the protesters were peaceful.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: October 26, 2020, 11:16:47 PM »
Dog Training Methods Help Teach Robots to Learn New Tricks
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-10-dog-methods-robots.html



With a training technique commonly used to teach dogs to sit and stay, Johns Hopkins University computer scientists showed a robot how to teach itself several new tricks, including stacking blocks. With the method, the robot, named Spot, was able to learn in days what typically takes a month.

By using positive reinforcement, an approach familiar to anyone who's used treats to change a dog's behavior, the team dramatically improved the robot's skills and did it quickly enough to make training robots for real-world work a more feasible enterprise. The findings are newly published in a paper called, "Good Robot!"

... Hundt recalled how he once taught his terrier mix puppy named Leah the command "leave it," so she could ignore squirrels on walks. He used two types of treats, ordinary trainer treats and something even better, like cheese. When Leah was excited and sniffing around the treats, she got nothing. But when she calmed down and looked away, she got the good stuff. "That's when I gave her the cheese and said, 'Leave it! Good Leah!'"

Similarly, to stack blocks, Spot the robot needed to learn how to focus on constructive actions. As the robot explored the blocks, it quickly learned that correct behaviors for stacking earned high points, but incorrect ones earned nothing. Reach out but don't grasp a block? No points. Knock over a stack? Definitely no points. Spot earned the most by placing the last block on top of a four-block stack.

The training tactic not only worked, it took just days to teach the robot what used to take weeks. The team was able to reduce the practice time by first training a simulated robot, which is a lot like a video game, then running tests with Spot.

"The robot wants the higher score," Hundt said. "It quickly learns the right behavior to get the best reward. In fact, it used to take a month of practice for the robot to achieve 100% accuracy. We were able to do it in two days."


Who's a Goodboi

Andrew Hundt et al, "Good Robot!": Efficient Reinforcement Learning for Multi-Step Visual Tasks with Sim to Real Transfer, IEEE Robotics and Automation Letters (2020).
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9165109

-----------------------------------------


Autonomous Boat Navigating the Canals of Amsterdam

----------------------------------------

No Implants Needed For Precise Control Deep Into The Brain
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/devices/deep-brain-control-without-implants

Optogenetics can now control neural circuits at unprecedented depths within living brain tissue without surgery

... all we need to do is genetically alter your brain cells.

----------------------------------------

Lawmaker Calls for AI to Be Integrated Into All Future Major Defense Programs
https://www.fedscoop.com/ai-development-in-all-defense-acquisition-programs-anthony-brown/

A lawmaker on the House Armed Services Committee is calling for artificial intelligence development to be mandated in future major defense programs, like helicopters or ground vehicle systems.

Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md., said during a Brookings virtual event Friday that for the DOD to modernize, it needs to get serious about fielding AI in its programs and remove outdated platforms from its roster. The DOD should “include AI development in every major defense acquisition program,” Brown said as a means to win the AI race with China.

... Many decades-old platforms, like old airplanes without modern software capabilities, would need to be scrapped or dramatically changed to incorporate modern tech. The change would also force platforms to rely more on data processing and enterprise IT systems to support the AI.

... Cyberdyne Systems has your solution right here...



------------------------------------------

For the Military, Destroying the Earth in Games May Help to Save the Real World
https://www.nextgov.com/ideas/2020/10/military-destroying-earth-games-may-help-save-real-world/169390/

It all began to crumble for the brave defenders of the United States when a nuclear warhead launched from an undetected submarine obliterated several West Coast cities. But things were going downhill even before that, with our Middle East assets taking a beating from both conventional and nuclear forces. At least we gave almost as good as we got. In the end, the so-called victor inherited a dying world filled with ash and little else other than stone age technology.

Thankfully, all of this was just a simulation of a war that nobody wants to fight.

The aforementioned battlefield was a nuclear war game called ICBM, which stands for intercontinental ballistic missile. It was created by well-known wargame developer Slitherine and is due to be released in November on the Steam gaming platform for the PC. But a few lucky members of the Pentagon’s wargaming team got an early look in a live battle challenge against the game’s developers.

They played three games. Although the Pentagon lost twice, they did win one bout. Given that they were playing the game’s developers, it was clear that Team Slitherine had home field advantage. As the Pentagon’s wargamers learned the nuances and strategy of the simulation, their experience in wargaming slowly began to give them the edge. It’s interesting to note that even when winning, the victor would inherit a very broken world with billions killed across millions of miles of ruined cities and irradiated landscapes. So I guess the lesson from the classic 1983 “War Games” movie still holds true today, that the only way to truly win a game of nuclear war is not to play. [... too bad Trump doesn't know this...]

The Pentagon team had to compete directly in the ICBM challenge using nothing but their human ingenuity and skill. But if they would have waited a couple of months, they might have been able to deploy a secret new military weapon. The Defense Advanced Research Project Agency just launched its AI Gamebreaker program in an effort to create an artificial intelligence that can overwhelm any strategy video game’s internal logic, sow chaos on the battlefield and ultimately win every skirmish, battle and war. ...


42
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 26, 2020, 10:12:19 PM »
Since you lot like oldies so much here are some:  :)

THE OLDEST SONG IN THE WORLD

This song to the Hurrian goddess Nikkal, is the oldest piece of music for which we have both the words and the accompanying musical notes. The work was written on clay tablets around 3500 years ago, and was discovered by archaeologists in the 1950’s in the ruins of the ancient city of Ugarit.



The Epic Of Gilgamesh In Sumerian




43
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 26, 2020, 09:59:14 PM »
Hausfather provided the following Tweet and associated image today comparing the observed GMSTA with the mean of 36 different CMIP6 models.  While Hausfather, indicates that he believes that these 36 models are running a bit hot; if 2020 is near, or above, the 2016 GMSTA, then these CMIP6 projections could be spot-on:

"We now have historical CMIP6 model runs from 36 different models to do some initial comparisons to observations. Heres the CMIP6 mean and 2-sigma range. Its running bit hot, which is unsurprising given all thats been written about the high sensitivity in some of the new models."

44
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: October 26, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
If you have lots of woody, high-carbon stuff (woodchips, leaves, straw), you should put in things that are high in nitrogen, like grass clippings, coffee grounds, kitchen scraps or good old fashioned urine (human as well). These all have lots of N to kickstart the process. You also might want to put a tarp on to keep the pile warm

45
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 26, 2020, 07:10:00 PM »
Of course it is possible that Biden may be the beneficiary of Trump's Executive Order.
I wouldn't want any president to have it either. This is designed to increase corruption.

46
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 26, 2020, 06:19:01 PM »
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2020, 05:50:25 PM »
Here's a side by side comparison of the first 25 days of ice growth this October compared to 2012
(Larger, better quality version on twitter here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1320764047638302720)


48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 26, 2020, 05:34:14 PM »
In Hot Spots Around the Country, Hospitals are Reaching Their Limits
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/world/in-hot-spots-around-the-country-hospitals-are-reaching-their-limits.html

Hospital administrators in Utah have sent a grim warning to Gov. Gary Herbert that they will soon be forced to ration access to their rapidly filling intensive-care units, and requested approval for criteria to decide which patients should get priority, The Salt Lake Tribune reported.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

“We told him, ‘It looks like we’re going to have to request those be activated if this trend continues,’ and we see no reason why it won’t,” the paper quoted Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, as saying.

In Tennessee, the Maury Regional Medical Center in Columbia suspended all elective procedures requiring an overnight stay on Saturday to make room for an influx of Covid-19 patients. Most of the facility’s 26 I.C.U. beds are already filled.

Hospitals in El Paso, Texas, are preparing to airlift some critical care patients to other medical facilities in the state after a record surge of Covid-19 hospitalizations, according to a statement from the University Medical Center of El Paso. Gov. Greg Abbott has asked the federal government to authorize the use of a military hospital at Fort Bliss, outside El Paso, to treat civilian non-coronavirus patients, his office said in a statement on Friday.

----------------------------------------

Military to Play Logistics-Only Role in COVID-19 Vaccine Effort
https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2393298/military-to-play-logistics-only-role-in-covid-19-vaccine-effort/source/GovDelivery/

U.S. military personnel won't be administering any COVID-19 vaccines to the American people once the vaccines are approved for use. But the U.S. military will lend it's experienced hand in logistics to ensure the vaccine is available across the nation, said Paul Mango, the deputy chief of staff for policy at the Department of Health and Human Services.

... "They will know where every vaccine dose is. If a vaccine dose is at risk of expiring, they will guide the movement of that to someplace else."

... federal military personnel will not be involved in touching the vaccine or administering it to Americans. He did add that if state governors want their own National Guard personnel to be involved as part of a state-run effort, they will do that at their discretion.

"The federal military will not be involved in moving any doses or injecting any vaccines,"

----------------------------------

North Dakota officials voted to repurpose US$221m in federal coronavirus aid to various state agencies, including a $16m grant to oil companies in support of the fracking process, AP reports.

The North Dakota Emergency Commission approved the plan Friday, the Bismarck Tribune reported.

The money comes from the $1.25bn awarded to the state through the Coronavirus Relief Fund established by the federal CARES Act.


-------------------------------------

Mexican health authorities acknowledged Sunday that the country’s true death toll from the coronavirus pandemic is far higher than thought, saying there were 193,170 “excess” deaths in the year up to 26 September, with 139,153 of those judged to be attributable to Covid-19. That is about 50,000 more deaths than Mexico’s official, test-confirmed death toll of about 89,000, and about 56% higher than the previous estimate of 103,882 pandemic deaths.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2020, 04:47:55 PM »
Quick and dirty sorry, but about the storm of tomorrow, to illustrate again. Map is wind speed (orange and yellow) at 500m (about 925 hPa), wind at same height (I hope...), theta (potential temperature) in black, surface temperature at -2°C in blue for an approximate ice edge, vertical velocity at 925 hPa (max threshold at -10 Pa/s) in gray and convective rainfall in transparence. And when I say convective rainfall, yeah I really meant that models are forecasting CBs all over the Arctic in the coming day. Next step, a subtropical storm in the Arctic.... This said. If we follow the wind, we hit a wall of theta which is the inversion over sea ice. There is surface based CAPE north to Kotel'Nyj (For central Arctic in late October, this qualify as a "holy mother of Einstein, what the f*** is going on" level on the crazyometer). This layer of unstable air is forced to rise over the ridge of theta, bringing mid level CBs over ice pack. We are swimming in a pool of craziness. This advection can be followed on soundings as the theta at the top of the inversion is the same that theta at surface north of Kotel'Nyj. We really have an isentropic lift forced by the temperature inversion over the pack, forcing ascents and instability... And on top of that, we can see that LLJ can't descend to surface over ice pack.
Soundings are from south to north (77°N, 81°N, 82°N)
Of course there is also and mostly synoptic scale forcings, etc... but there is really some things going on at the interface between sea ice and ocean, and we are to the point we need a good swath of CBs to cool down the Arctic Ocean. On top of that, in the Arctic night, CBs are powerfull at isolating the surface, radiating a lot of heat toward he surface in longwave (and sea ice is not white in IR...)

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 26, 2020, 04:08:37 PM »
Doctors with covid asked to stay at work in Belgium

Quote
A quarter of medical staff in Liege are reported to be off work with Covid-19. But another 10% of staff who have tested positive but are asymptomic have been asked to continue working.

The president of the Belgian Association of Medical Unions, Dr Philippe Devos, acknowledged the obvious risk of transferring the virus to patients, but says they’ve been left with no choice in order to avoid the hospital system collapsing within days.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54689273 post at 14:36

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