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Messages - nanning

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: Today at 04:02:59 PM »
Yes, fossil-death-fuels were and are the ultimate 'forbidden fruit.' We rushed into exploiting them, and have yet to really develop effective taboos, legal or cultural, against their use. Most small scale, traditional societies do develop a rich set of such taboos that help to steer them away from over exploiting critical local resources. For many/most capitalists, the very notion of any such taboos at any level is itself taboo for them!

But, as with most things, the rise of modern industrial culture and population explosion is a bit more complicated than just ffs. Expansionist cultural drives lead to the age of colonialism (aka, the global spread of Western European piratic ventures. This in turn, among other things, lead to the world-wide spread of various (most 'New World') crops like maize, potatoes, yams...which proved to do well in many environments and allowed for global population to start its exponential increase well before the effective use of ffs.

2
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 03:55:09 PM »
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet

3
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 03:52:12 PM »
The observation about China is not batshit.

Or is it?

Let's start with this one: Who is saying they 'suffer' from the tariffs? The US is only one of the many customers China has. It's a pathetic US-centric 'argument'.

4
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 03:48:55 PM »
Maybe random posters on a PO forum are not the best sources.

Off course this is an extraordinary measure but it is a logical one faced with a new contagious disease which we do not have vaccines for.

If the cases are still largely clustered in Wuhan and the other quarantained cities this stops spread from people living there travelling to other places in China to visit people for the new year which should slow down the spread.

5
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 03:24:12 PM »
Woohoo, that's some batshit crazy shit your Cog guy is vomiting there.

6
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: Today at 02:09:01 PM »
In a follow up to Reply #1083

This is how they model it:

Quote
The size of the annual CO2 rise depends on anthropogenic emissions and the strength of natural carbon sinks which are affected by climate variability.  Our method uses a statistical relationship between the annual CO2 rise, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. We predict the rise between 2019 and 2020 will be similar to that between 2018 and 2019, which was larger than in the previous two years (Figure 2), because of relatively warm temperatures in the Niño3.4 region. Such "El Niño-like" conditions are generally associated with modified tropical weather patterns that make many land regions drier and reduce the ability of plants to grow and absorb CO2, temporarily reducing the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast

Picture of the Niño3.4 region
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst/

Quote
Historically, scientists have classified the intensity of El Niño based on SST anomalies exceeding a pre-selected threshold in a certain region of the equatorial Pacific. The most commonly used region is the Niño 3.4 region, and the most commonly used threshold is a positive SST departure from normal greater than or equal to +0.5°C. Since this region encompasses the western half of the equatorial cold tongue region, it provides a good measure of important changes in SST and SST gradients that result in changes in the pattern of deep tropical convection and atmospheric circulation.

So off course at some time the 3.4 region might become colder again but meanwhile we are cuting into the Amazon and other old forests which will in itself eats away at the sinks.

Off course the real important fact is that 2019 was the first year we overwhelmed the carbon sinks...

One highly theoretical solution is to immediately cut our emissions to below what the system can handle but that assumes sanity and by now we are on Planet Wetiko.  >:(


7
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: Today at 01:02:59 PM »
Ktb & willi:
Points.
Still, I think nanning has rose colored glasses when he looks at noncivilized humans. And I also think the problems with Civilization are from its immaturity. Ten millennia is like ten minutes in the history of a species. Maybe when it grows up we will solve those problems.
Or maybe that is only theoretically possible but not practical. Maybe that is the answer to the Fermi Paradox.

Quote
If they got tired of being agriculturalists, if they found they didn't like where it was leading them in their particular adaptation, they were *able* to give it up. They didn't say to themselves, 'Well, we've got to keep going at this even if it kills us, because its the *right* way to live.' For example, there was once a people who constructed a vast network of irrigation canals in order to farm the deserts of what is now southeastern Arizona. They maintained these canals for three thousand years and built a fairly advanced civilization, but in the end they were free to say, 'This is a toilsome and unsatisfying way to live, so to hell with it.' They simply walked away from the whole thing and put it so totally out of mind that we don't even know what they called themselves. The only name we have for them is the one the Pima Indians gave them: Hohokam--those who vanished.
- Ishmael

Quote
And every time the Takers stamp out a Leaver culture, a wisdom ultimately tested since the birth of mankind disappears from the world beyond recall.
- Ishmael

As you say, only 10,000 years or so, perhaps as far back as 12,000. The blink of an eye vs 3+million years of hominid evolution.

We know that this/our civilization will never work. That it will always go on destroying the world.

8
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 12:41:56 PM »
Thanks Sam
Well researched and well written!


We had our 1st suspected case in Toronto last night, so I opted out of a planed dinner engagement. The patient tested positive, but the result hasn't been confirmed yet?


Terry

9
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: Today at 11:55:17 AM »
This is mainly for philosophers and humanists  ;)
The more we learn about our brain the less we know about our mind.
"The barrier between mind and body appears to be crumbling."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/19/inflammation-depression-mind-body

10
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 11:46:13 AM »
look at the data below

Here's a link to the data you refer to:

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Click the map at the bottom for updates.

Quote
We developed an online dashboard (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: Today at 11:39:07 AM »
surplus it diverts to heat the hot water cylinder.

Damn clever!

Quote
“Subsidy” is a pejorative term, used by those opposed to renewables.

I'll keep that in mind. :)

12
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: Today at 11:31:32 AM »
Human Ancestors Caused Animal Extinctions Millions of Years Before We Even Arrived

...

By examining the fossil record in East Africa, biologists have been able to trace a decline in carnivores that correlates with an increase in hominin brain size and vegetation changes - but not with climate or weather changes, as is commonly found.

This, the researchers say, can be interpreted as a connection between hominin activity and carnivore extinctions.

"Our analyses show that the best explanation for the extinction of carnivores in East Africa is … that they are caused by direct competition for food with our extinct ancestors," said computational biologist Daniele Silvestro of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden.

...

"By investigating the African fossils, we can see a drastic reduction in the number of large carnivores, a decrease that started about 4 million years ago," said palaeontologist Lars Werdelin of the Swedish Museum of Natural History.

"About the same time, our ancestors may have started using a new technology to get food called kleptoparasitism."

You probably know kleptoparasitic animals very well. Seagulls, swooping in to nick your chips. Hyenas and lions, which steal each other's kills willy-nilly. The less said about the poor, displaced Australian white ibis the better.

https://www.sciencealert.com/human-ancestors-drove-animals-to-extinction-millions-of-years-ago

13
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 11:19:28 AM »
  philopek , I suppose Xi declaring the situation 'grave' could be considered the equivalent of a child pretending to drown but I'm not so sure . It would be an unusual path for a leader , hyping up a 'false alarm .
  Indeed .. look at the figures .. It would appear obvious the first few weeks of spread in China was not apparent ( or supressed ) otherwise the numbers would appear on your graph . Do you not expect a similar exponential curve outside China ?
  the accelerating rate of infection is causing the gradual shutdown of the world's mega factory . Just in time delivery may be challenged and transport hubs could find their essential staff missing .
  but no worries .. lets shut this thread down .. along with the scare-mongering threads fearful of climate change ; after all it may never happen .. especially if we are all dead ( :) )
  and yes El Cid .. employment has never been higher but job security has never been lower . The world has never been so in debt .. the same £ or $ has never been on loan to so many at one time ..

and thankfully a ban today on the sale of wild animals .. but there was already one in place . Maybe this outbreak will end some of the ongoing appalling treatment of animals . b.c.

ps .. thank you Sam !


14
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: Today at 11:09:37 AM »
Following on from the above

Councils can now charge a tax on commercial building owners for car parking spaces., I would urge them to discount those which have EV charging points. Cars are static most of the working day

Councils also set business rates, I would urge them to apply a higher tax on those with NO solar fitted, where it would be practical to do so.

Cooling takes more energy than heating (all those PCs running at a few 100s of Watts each) so the solar can run EVs plus cooling in the summer, just the EVs in the winter.

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: Today at 11:01:03 AM »
In the UK a few years back a generous Feed in Tarriff was introduced for solar.

The installation owner (e.g owner of a domestic house) got 43p/kWh for generating and was still paid the FIT even if the electricity was used within the dwelling. The deal was fixed (plus inflation) for 20 years. At that time the installation was expensive.

Extremely generous, electricity is c. 16p to buy in now

But

The built in degression mechanism meant the FIT rate dropped rapidly for new installations as more solar was installed. The generous rate was meant only to kick start the industry, which it did. Soon the FIT rate was below the production rate, c. 4p/kwh (it depends on the efficiency rating of the house, retrofit/newbuild etc.)

The above worked well

Sounds like Crandles in Reply #4606 is on a similar generous deal.

Renters – the landlord (govt council or private) collects the FIT, the occupant gets some free leccy. Both benefit.

Mine earns no FITs, it’s a DIY install to offset elec use. I have a diverter which has a current clamp on the meter tail, if I’m producing a surplus it diverts to heat the hot water cylinder.

A good inflation free investment.

NB in the UK the FIT is a guaranteed tariff paid, it’s not a subsidy. “Subsidy” is a pejorative term, used by those opposed to renewables.

16
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 10:57:14 AM »
I should also note that most of the world does not have the legal ability to do what the Chinese are doing.

Strict enforcement of rights and liberties makes containment vastly harder and vastly more likely to fail. With one to several hundred cases outside China (both confirmed infections and suspected infections), the chance that this pandemic escapes China is very high.

And if that comes to pass, we may reasonably expect over 700 million deaths as a result - before the end of May! We must bend every effort to assure that does not happen.

Sam

17
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: Today at 10:54:15 AM »
If the old ways were so good, why do all these tribes join Civilization when it arrives?

In most cases we do not give them a choice. Join us or perish. And once we have completely stamped out their old way, we have the audacity to say "See how the (insert native/aboriginal/original owner) drinks/is lazy/is dumb" etc, etc, etc.

Even when we gave the original landowners a choice of remaining in their own culture or joining ours, it was a false option. See native Alaskans. "You're free to keep practicing your way of life, but if you want to stay with your children you have to settle in this town over here."

18
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 10:46:25 AM »
Philopek,

You could not be much more wrong. The world today is a highly interconnected place with rapid movement of people everywhere. Any rapidly transmitting virus or even many other pathogens have the potential to spiral wildly out of control in no time flat. You assert flatly that this is not a pandemic to be concerned about.

Consider... the parameters we now know.

1) the R0 was first estimated at ~1.5 - 2.4. That is now more likely about 4. Our history with corona viruses (SARS in particular) track with the data so far. If this virus plays out like SARS the R0 will rise to the 5 - 7 range. That isn’t a change in the virus. That is a change in both data availability and population conditions. Viruses with R0s this large are extremely infective.

2) the mean observed incubation time is 6.4 days with the patients likely being asymptomatic and infective for at least one of those.

3) Lancet researchers estimate (rightly or wrongly) that the official counts most likely represent a bit over 5% of total actual infections. This is not at all surprising with a 6.4 day average incubation period.

4) those most severely affected are over about 55 years in age. With two thirds of those admitted to hospital being male.

5) of those admitted who have either died or recovered, the number dying slightly exceeds the number surviving. Since it takes a few days longer to survive and be discharged than to die, the temporal base for these indices is not correlated. A more reasonable estimate is 30-40% of those being fatal. About 4% require intubation and ventilation. About 5% suffer cardiac injury. These all require massive health services, with enormous amounts of protective gear. Even at current levels the hospital staffs are being exhausted and overwhelmed. Exhausted people make errors. So far two of the doctors that have become infected have died. More will. These are front line warriors in a war zone.

Based on the full population, the case fatality rate is no less than ~0.75%, and likely no more than 40%. It appears likely that the CFR is in the 4 - 20% range. SARS CFR was ~10%. This is a close relative. And that is a likely average For 2019-nCoV as well. We won’t know the true average value for a while yet, and until better data is available that traces groups of people what the actual values are. 

6) SARS is a bio safety level 3 (BSL3) vector. 2019-nCoV appears to be a BSL3 or 4 virus - i.e. extremely dangerous.

7) lunar new year celebrations in China constitute the largest mass migration of people on earth. This event happened right on top of those celebrations. This facilitated the widespread movement of infected persons during the incubation period. As a consequence tens of millions of Chinese are now in quarantine. The virus is present in every province. And the count of infected persons is growing at a rate approximating a growth of 1.32 - 1.41 fold every day.

At this growth rate, if quarantine, education and other actions are not able to contain the spread, every person on earth will have been exposed and likely infected by the later half of April.

At the moment, there are few known infected persons outside of China. Few enough that containment might occur. That is slight comfort to the 1.437 billion citizens of China. Despite enormous and unprecedented efforts in China, the disease shows every sign of being out of control and pandemic.

Best estimates place the count of infected today at 5,000 - 10,000, though the actual count may be vastly higher.

If this is indeed pandemic inside China, and if the CFR is ~10% matching SARS, that projects to 144 million Chinese (predominantly older and male) ultimately dying. The impact on China and the world will be enormous if that comes to pass - which is why I think that the Chinese are mobilizing the most massive response to a disease outbreak that has ever occurred. It is doubtful frankly that any other country could do this.

With a likely R0 of 4, and an average generation time of 6.4 days, and a current infected pool of 6,000 people, without quarantine succeeding, this plays out as follows.

Feb 1 - 24,000 infected
Feb 7 - 96,000
Feb 14 - 384,000
Feb 20 - 1.45 million
Feb 27 - 5.8 million
Mar 6 - 23 million
Mar 12 - 92 million
Mar 19 - 370 million
Mar 25 - the entire population of China.

Admission to hospital for those that ill occurs shortly after symptoms. Intensive care follows about 3 days later. For those who survive the mean time to recovery is now about 23.5 days. So by mid-April this first wave will have finished in China.

The only opportunity to stop this from playing out is to aggressively stop it now. Choosing to stick ones head in the sand because the absolute numbers are small now, assures that a catastrophic pandemic happens.

And even if the disease is contained in China, in the quarantined zones, in certain districts... the impacts are likely to be large. And what happens to and in China in a globally connected world is not limited to China. Even the impacts on production of goods in a highly connected just-in-time world are massive to the global economy and hence to everyone on earth.

These are not worst case numbers. These are most likely numbers, based on the most recent data, if containment and control fail.

8 ) more over, this virus has an animal host. If that host is as has been suggested either bats or snakes, propogation and reinfection in the wild is a small risk. If on the other hand this virus can and does infect birds, especially ducks - then all bets are off on containment.

We already know from flu, which cycles through humans, birds and pigs primarily, that transmission from bird droppings under the flyways is a major route of spread. If this virus infects ducks, well - there is no effective control.

In a somewhat more hopeful vein, there are a couple of experimental antivirals that may be effective. These have already been used in emergencies with Ebola and other corona viruses.

Throughout this early period, there are serious difficulties in assembling accurate data. Often that data is not temporally correlated. You can’t for example just take the ratio of deaths so far to known infections as a gauge. This is an exponential problem. You have to instead follow individual cases through from beginning to end to get accurate information. Lacking that, model fits using parameters from related viruses give a decent estimate.

There are also lag periods from infection to symptoms to counting, to resolution to reporting. These seriously distort the apparent seriousness in ways that can easily mislead people into believing that this isn’t a big deal - when it is actually an out of control pandemic.

Successfully intervening and stopping a pandemic is not much better. It is just luckier. As a result, the analogies to kids in a pool is just plain wrong.

At the same time, there is a large body of people who quickly and eagerly ascribe all sorts of motivations that do not exist, and who see conspiracies that don’t exist hiding under every rock and behind every tree. These are not helpful. They are in fact hurtful in several serious ways.

Sam


19
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: Today at 10:42:23 AM »
Just curious. What vit D value is abnormal?
?25OH VitD ?1,25OH VitD.
Ca / PO4 / Mg / PTH normal ?
Other fat soluble vit levels (A, E, K) low.
CRP / CK checked?
Is the test done in summer or winter ?
Are you Northern European or do you have more pigmented skin?

Why was it tested?

I assume that you’re well, with no inflammatory / renal / choke static liver disease / bone issue, not on steroids or drugs causing osteoporosis. No sign of malabsorption?

Perhaps the test is just wrong - quite likely if a battery of tests was done. Or - you are similar to people living in Australia or New Zealand, many of whom are vitamin D deficient based on 25OH VitD levels.

Probably you should just rejoice in your good respiratory and cardiovascular function! Or take my mother’s advice. She encouraged her children to have a disgusting supplement. Her children managed 2-3 doses and abandoned that. Malt extract was the suggested dietary aid.
Some pleasant foods may be supplemented. Milk in US. Margarine in some countries. Oily fish has higher levels of vit D (good for heart disease too).

Running in the sun may be better than merely sunbathing too, curiously enough.

Cheers
Henry

20
^^
Did you kill them before boiling them?
Sorry Terry, I couldn't resist ;)
At that time the limit was 10/person/day - without a license!


Myself, a friend, 3 borrowed kids & 5 open net traps, with 5 salmon heads for bait.
One run to drop the traps, a return run to haul them in, then back on the trailer & home to cook them before they tore each other apart.


We'd toss the keepers into the garbage can on board the boat, then on land we'd build a fire under the offloaded can and cook em for 5 min. after they stopped "screaming". ???


Similar to the way they trap & steam lobsters in Newfoundland outports.
Brutal perhaps, but effective, efficient and unbelievably tasty 8)
Terry

21
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 10:24:27 AM »
CNN just reported a third case in the US in Orange County, CA

Quote
The following places outside mainland China have confirmed cases:

    Hong Kong: 5 cases
    Macao: 5 cases
    Thailand: 5 cases
    Australia: 4 cases
    Malaysia: 4 cases
    Singapore: 4 cases
    France: 3 cases
    Japan: 3 cases
    South Korea: 3 cases
    Taiwan: 3 cases
    United States: 2 cases [now 3]
    Vietnam: 2 cases
    Nepal: 1 case

22
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: Today at 10:00:32 AM »
If being sober were so good, why do so many become alcoholics?
If being clean were so good, why do so many become junkies?
If being free were so good, why are so many in jail?
...

23
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 09:21:38 AM »
when you find your kids and/or grandkids yelling for help in the pool just to find out that they're pulling your leg, what would most of you say tell them (hey dad, here grand-dad)

one day there will be a real pandemie with tens of millions invected and death and then we can tell that most were not taking proper action in time after so many hyped false alarms.

look at the data below, put the numbers into relation with population, travel habits and numbers and speed of spreading over several days and then inform yourself about what is already known scientifically about this virus and i think we should delete this thread and not further add to the fearmongering hype.

BTW i wated 14 hours before writing this to :

a) check whether anything would change

b) to find the better than initial tone ;)

as to the economy, those who are responsible always need a reasonable trigger to blame to get away with their fraudulent scam to plunder billions of people. i talk about accumulated wealth and their political puppets. hence each similar event can indeed be used to trigger the next financial and economical crisis, probably starting with a stock-crash that is certainly in the making, looking at some obvious bubbles ( high stock prices without obvious reasons  and more )

so yes, pandemic events are very likely among the possible next large scale reduction in world population and can indeed be used as trigger events for economical collapse but:

THIS IS NOT IT



24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:17:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 25th, 2020:
     13,527,040 km2, an increase of 35,411 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

25
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: Today at 04:23:54 AM »
That's not funny, Alu.  Lone Russian climate striker Arshak Makichyan (he was also in Madrid) even got arrested, and there are stupid hate montages of the Greta pic out there.




P.S.: Still I can laugh about how a little girl can make the stupid and the hateful unmask themselves.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: Today at 03:17:09 AM »
EU energy chief says 2030 renewables goal may rise as wind industry slams progress

Raising the future (10 years from now) bar whilst missing the current year's one, politicians love targets so far in the future that they will not be in power when judgement comes. Europe will probably miss their 2020 20% target for renewables by 1%.

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/eu-energy-chief-says-2030-renewables-goal-may-rise-as-wind-industry-slams-progress/2-1-743783


27
The forum / Re: ASIF Style Guide
« on: Today at 02:34:14 AM »
So you think I am joking?
Dunno :)
------------------------

"Style Guide" comes from software industry.  It is mostly about how to format the code.

Bad software style guides prescribe too rigidly how to code, i.e. the ideas and constructs to use in algorithms etc.  (E.g. "Don't even use GOTO to escape nested loops." or "Four brackets is too many." (Common examples from verbal style guidance by wannabe chief engineers. My personal records are 7 nested IFs and 5 nested FORs (as demanded by the problems, not my ego). Regarding GOTO ask Stroustrup and forget about Dijkstra.  8)))

A good style guide should also give some reason for the prescriptions.  That I missed in §1. But the reason should be obvious :)
Quote
Have mercy with folks with bad eye sight.


------------------------
P.S.: The font size management of the forum software is doubly bad coding...  8)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_(typography)

28
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 01:35:37 AM »
In a vegan world ..

 unconnected to that ^^ thought .. it would have been hard to design , locate and time a more perfect launch for a virus attack on modern humanity . Considering the truely perilous situation in which the world economy exists very little more need happen before we see things unravelling .
 
Has the 2 legged locust just been 'sprayed' by nature 'raw in tooth and claw'  ?  ..  b.c.

 

29
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 01:12:13 AM »
The Role of Wild Animals in the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
https://time.com/5770904/wuhan-coronavirus-wild-animals/

We are seeing cases of pneumonia without fever or cough, which makes the control of this outbreak more difficult.

30
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 12:28:11 AM »
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

Key Findings

Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.


● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

31
With the Groningen field closing in 2022, and production already down by nearly half, would be in the interests of the Dutch to move to renewables as fast as possible. The alternative is a high degree of dependency upon LNG and Gazprom.

Output at Europe’s giant Groningen gas field plunges in Dec, dents Dutch stocks

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/output-at-europes-giant-groningen-gas-field-plunges-in-dec-dents-dutch-stocks/

32
Don’t forget the halocarbons.

The total radiative forcings, RFs, from the linked ORNL website article by Blasing, T.J. (that updates such RF values reported in April 2016, see the attached table) are used in the linked Wikipedia article to calculate a CO2e value of 526.6ppm.  This relatively high value of for CO2e appears to be associated with RF associated with tropospheric ozone and its chemical interaction in the atmosphere with GHGs like methane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_equivalent


Extract: "To calculate the CO2e of the additional radiative forcing calculated from April 2016's updated data: ∑ RF(GHGs) = 3.3793, thus CO2e = 280 e3.3793/5.35 ppmv = 526.6 ppmv."

Title: "Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations" by Blasing, T.J., 2016, DOI: 10.3334/CDIAC/atg.032

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html

33
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:53:48 PM »
While writing these lines a further question came into my mind:
Is a simple addition right at all? Maybe the IR spectra of the molecules (especially CO2 and N2O) overlap and reduce each other by some interference?

The overlapping (or not) of spectra is already built into the GWP.

One think I am not sure of is if aviation emissions are counted correctly, as they are largely in the stratosphere.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:31:07 PM »
Fee (for using fossil fuel) and dividend (a progressive per capita payment) forces the market signals while shifting taxation away from the poorer and middle class toward the top 20% (the ones who drive big cars and take lots of business and vacation trips on planes).It would quickly move the car market to EV's and the small and efficient engines and cars you see in Europe. It also benefits local goods which don't have the transport emissions.

So simple, and attractive to the majority, it will never be proposed! Instead, in Canada we get a refundable carbon tax made to be complicated to claim - also, only taxpayers can claim it. The dividend is simply a tax free check that gets mailed out to each adult, no claims necessary.

$100 per tonne of carbon, escalating by $10+ per year should do the trick.

35
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:24:33 PM »
I wouldn't pay much attention to zerohedge as a source.  Conspiracy theories galore there.

That doesn't mean the coronavirus infection isn't gravely serious, however.

I've long had an interest in influenza, SARS, and pandemics in general.  I'll share a few impressions.

In terms of contagiousness and overall mortality, this seems quite similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic ("Spanish flu," though that is a misnomer.)  A number of books and documentaries would be worth perusing.

That epidemic preferentially struck young adults, which is very unusual for respiratory viruses.  This coronavirus seems more typically to target the elderly and those with chronic health problems.

The SARS virus was probably more lethal, but far less contagious.

Modern advances in infectious disease have done essentially nothing to inhibit the spread of respiratory viruses.  Every winter, a substantial fraction of the word's population gets influenza (and that's despite vaccines and antiviral medications, neither of which are available for this virus).  I can't see any reason to believe this virus won't spread worldwide, very quickly.

I would guess that most of the world's population will be exposed/infected within a year.  The worst suffering will be those who become critically ill when health systems are overwhelmed.  Becoming a hermit for a time may be the best preventive approach.  I personally doubt that face masks are terribly useful.  Hand sanitizers may be more effective.  Shaking hands in greeting should be ceased.  The hand sanitizers are usually just gelled ethanol.   In a pinch, vodka makes an excellent substitute.  For acute emotional distress, oral administration may be useful.

36
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: January 25, 2020, 10:55:06 PM »
Prefab units are seriously overrated. Just as one example, a buddy of mine is working on a manufactured unit, on slab, no basement, just hookup water electric sewage, and ready to go right ?

Not so fast. Those things are built in climate controlled factories, where tolerances can be as tight as your machines and workmen can hold. Looks real pretty when it comes off the lines. When those are meet realworld, with real realworld temperature fluctuation from 95F to -20 F, realworld snow loads, real world storms, real world humidity, real world rodents, real world birds ... you get the picture.

Family moved in 3 yr ago. First year: windows began leaking. 2nd year: roof began leaking. Third year: misaligned condensate drain from AC had been leaking since install, nice big patch of mold in wall insulation. This year: siding starts peeling, roof tiles and siding blow away in windstorm kill neighbour's dog. Family of squirrels move into ceiling, couple die there. Family moves out, sues everybody beginning with factory, thru transport, and installers.

My buddy was working onnit, looks at me and goes, i was gonna do a gut job, but now i think is a knockdown and rebuild. All the money is goin to the lawyers, and the insurance company is doin what insurance companies do, screw their clients. So he is going to make a loball offer on the thing, he thinks the family might take it at this point.

If you want it done right, go stickbuilt with a general contractor you know and trust. Also helps if you know where he drinks, that way you can track him down at the bar if all else fails.

sidd

37
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 10:31:13 PM »
Don’t forget the halocarbons.
I didn't mention them because I only took the four "NOAA gases" that are reported on https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html in a regular way. Of course the halocarbons are relevant and must be included into any realistic calculation of the GHG in Earth's atmosphere.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 10:30:49 PM »
sounds like a very expensive way

No, it's not.
...
Expensive is not doing it! Period.

Well yes not doing it is expensive. However there are still ways of doing it that are too expensive.

30 cent per KWh taken up by 1 in 30 of the population adds 1 cent a KWh to electricity prices. That can be OK if it allows production scale to be increased to the point where subsidies are no longer needed and are removed.

However if it stays in place when it is clearly a no brainer money maker so 50% of households take it up, the price of electric goes up by 15 cent a KWh. Doubling electricity prices when different policy to achieve the same level of renewable deployment would hardly increase electricity prices at all and might reduce them... I don't think public would or should stand for that.


39
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 10:13:25 PM »

adjusting mole weight 56.80 or 18.93 ppm CO2 eq.
→ this was one of my questions whether this has to be done or is it already implemented in the GHG factor? This makes my CH4 value so low


The link seems to say the GWP ratio is based on WEIGHT
_____________________________________
https://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/co2-equivalents/
The three main greenhouse gases (along with water vapour) and their 100-year global warming potential (GWP) compared to carbon dioxide are: (1)

1 x – carbon dioxide (CO2)
25 x – methane (CH4) – I.e. Releasing 1 kg of CH4 into the atmosphere is about equivalent to releasing 25 kg of CO2
298 x – nitrous oxide (N2O) – I.e. Releasing 1 kg of N2O into the atmosphere is about equivalent to releasing 298 kg of  CO2
__________________________________________

So I think this is the correct (?) result from your calculation
Including the mole weights the values are lower:
558.89 ppm CO2 eq (20 y) or 521.22 ppm CO2 eq (100 y)


ps: I have to go back to my spreadsheets to ciorrect them,

pps: The NOAA calculation of CO2e /AGGI does not include SF6 which is becoming significant,

ppps: CFC 11 & 12 that are in the NOAA CO2e /AGGI calculation and together as significant as N20. But how they do that I do not know.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ & https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html



40
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 09:49:10 PM »
While writing these lines a further question came into my mind:
Is a simple addition right at all? Maybe the IR spectra of the molecules (especially CO2 and N2O) overlap and reduce each other by some interference?

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 09:37:29 PM »
Last page there was this mention of this structure being a choice made out of political compromise.

My hunch is just that it is a sabotage move on their part. If you live in a high rise you can´t profit from it, if you live in a rental same. So around the next election they can make a fuzz about that to combat the greens or whatever.

We have subsidized the FF since forever so that is normal (and preferred by people profiting from it hence moves such as above).

Crandles is purely looking at numbers and that is what government should do but of course all the career politicians made a career in the current system.


42
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 09:26:33 PM »
Stephan, could you please post your calculation and the numbers you used?
I re-calculate for June 2019 (recommended by ASLR)
CO2
concentration 413.92 ppm
factor 1
resulting 413.92 ppm CO2 eq

CH4
concentration 1.8596 ppm
factors 84 (20 y) and 28 (100 y)
resulting 156.21 or 52.07 ppm CO2 eq
adjusting mole weight 56.80 or 18.93 ppm CO2 eq.
→ this was one of my questions whether this has to be done or is it already implemented in the GHG factor? This makes my CH4 value so low


N2O
concentration 0.3318 ppm
factor 264 (I didn't use factor 265 for 100 y, so I used 264 for both times)
resulting 87.60 ppm CO2 eq
no adjust of mole weight necessary

SF6
concentration 0.00093 ppm
factors 17,500 (20 y) or 23,500 (100 y)
resulting 0.17 or 0.23 CO2 eq
adjusting mole weight 0.58 or 0.77 ppm CO2 eq
(same question as above, makes SF6 value much higher because it is so heavy)


The sum of the bold written black lines gives me the same value as yours, nanning (apart from the different month used) 657.90 ppm CO2 eq (20 y) or 553.82 ppm CO2 eq (100 y)
Including the mole weights the values are lower: 558.89 ppm CO2 eq (20 y) or 521.22 ppm CO2 eq (100 y)

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:40:03 PM »
Kassy, if subsidizing energy sources divides the voter base, how could governments pull it off for decades and subsidize the FF industry?

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:33:06 PM »
You are not really getting crandles point.

Is the high tariff forever?

Basically that makes no sense except as a measure to divide the voter base. It is bad policy.
You could limit the sum to where investments have been earned back and then change to some reasonable market tariff.

Wouldn't that subsidy money be better spent on utility scale solar projects which with prices as low as a couple of cents per KWh. Surely your option is costing up to 15 times too much?

This does provide more bang for the buck. Off course we should do both in an efficient way.

45
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:27:22 PM »
This individual claims the R0 of this virus is....  14.0

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=TQnMM-YNJw8&feature=emb_logo


Translation:  I ’m still in the epidemic area of ​​Hankou, Wuhan, and I ’d like to report to you the current epidemic situation in Hubei and even the whole country.

There are now more than 90,000 person-times (Note: Infected person-times?)

What is the chance of this virus being transmitted? After a person is infected, if he is not effectively isolated,

Or if effective treatment is performed, he will infect 14 people around him, so this level is very large.

Now it ’s the time of the Chinese New Year family and friends, relatives, children, and children are all going to the house to reunite the family together for a reunion dinner

The situation is special now. I hope you do n’t go out.

Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere

Let me introduce you to the situation of medical supplies in Hubei Province

At present, the entire medical system in Wuhan, which integrates the entire medical system in Hubei Province, has passed through our superiors. The health and health committee (Note: these three words are uncertain)

And various administrative departments
 

The municipal government and the provincial government are initiating donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material. For example, the goggles I wear

Wear disposable masks, wear disposable gloves, wear this gown, or even isolation pants.

This material is extremely accurate. Our current medical staff must come back to the front line when they come down from the clinic.

I am now equivalent to recording this video with everyone on the FireWire, in order to make everyone accurate.

I stress again that during the Spring Festival holiday, do n’t go out and stay in your own house, otherwise I ’m desperately ahead

Not just to keep my dad, my loved ones, healthy

I hope everyone can understand, I also know that some relatives are not in the group, please see the news of me, call each other and inform

It must be done. I hope everyone can raise awareness. This is a political task.

And I ’m reporting very bad news. This new type of coronavirus has undergone the second generation mutation

In other words, in the first generation of mutation, we can treat it symptomatically.

Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.

Then it is pour burst (note: these five characters are uncertain)

I hope everyone remembers, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t meet, do n’t have dinner

thank you all

46
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:47:11 PM »
Did a little digging into coronaviruses on the internet, and came across the article tracing SARS to bats.   The article is 3 years old and very prevalent to what is happening right now.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

47
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:43:53 PM »
Now We Are Being Told That The Incubation Period For The Coronavirus “Can Be Around Two Weeks”
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/now-we-are-being-told-that-the-incubation-period-for-the-coronavirus-can-be-around-two-weeks
Quote
The more we learn about this mysterious new coronavirus, the more frightening this outbreak becomes.  As you will see below, we are now being told that the incubation period for this virus “can be around two weeks”.  That means that there could be countless numbers of people all over the globe that are carrying this virus around without even knowing it.  In fact, a woman that returned to Chicago from China on January 13th was not exhibiting any symptoms when she arrived.  So even if she had been “screened” at the airport, they would have let her through anyway.  But now it has been confirmed that she has the Chinese coronavirus, and she is in the hospital at this moment…
Yeah, this guy likes to cry "Wolf!"
But remember, in the end the wolf did come.

48
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:15:56 PM »
we cannot trust the early info from local officials who were obviously downplaying things . Even if this has changed it is likely that we are still playing a gradual catch-up to the truth , or exactly the opposite .. an ever growing cover-up .
  This is far more contageous than SARS . I anticipate a minimum of 25 million dead worldwide and a collapse of health services . If I was in govt anywhere i would be urging retired doctors and nurses out of retirement and preparing for disaster . Even if my fears are overblown it would be a valuable exercise as the mess that is China's wildlife markets and meat production makes future epidemics a near certainty .
  World economy may well shrink unless it really is killing only the old and ill but this seems doubtful . If survival is dependent on intensive care then .. oops . b.c.

49
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?
Already affected the price of crude, share price of airlines, major hotel chains, tourism operators.
Chinese economy will be hit as is happening at Lunar New Year, when people go home to their parents. Hundreds of millions of people should be on the move, restaurants hotels and leisure facilities at their busiest.

If the outbreak is contained the effect will be temporary. If it spreads (internationally as well as in China) and is long-lasting then all bets are off.

50
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:10:40 PM »
Looks like we won't be going at all, Nanning... the developments are so rapid that it's hard to keep up, but I seriously doubt we'll even be able to get travel insurance at the moment! Rumours suggest Shanghai and Beijing will be isolated next week, and if Xi is admitting the rapid accelaration, it means they're preparing to release larger numbers in their statistics.

     That said... the statistics cover formally tested patients/victims, and most of the bodies are apparently being cremated as soon as possible.  I've seen videos with bodies lying next to patients in packed hospital corridors, sometimes with a doctor or two lying alongside. From the sound of it, there are no numbers available, and nobody is bothering to test for confirmation - at least in Wuhan, the hospitals appear to be in chaos.

Terry, do contact your friend in Jinan, and I hope for the best for them. I have many friends in Nanjing, and they're geting very worried, as you would expect.

Things to look for in relation to a worst case scenario: more official statements of how serious it is, combined with stated numbers of infected/dead increasing abruptly (means China doesn't think they'll be able to keep it under wraps); full lockdown of most Chinese cities; appearance of the virus in other countries in non-Chinese patients (probably within a week); and closing of international borders. As I say, I really hope I'm wrong.   :-\

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