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Messages - Freegrass

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2020, 07:19:54 AM »
From one of my posts on the extent thread
A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice). To add to that, the extra strong polar vortex in the Atlantic spawned Storm Ciara and now Storm Dennis which look like it has caused, is causing and will cause havoc in the Atlantic Front.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
When looking beyond 5 days the crystal ball goes foggy.
It is about 4 weeks before the average date of maximum, and the minimum date of maximum since 2002 is 15th Feb (2015), 2nd earliest 28 Feb (2016).
Incisive as ever.

I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.  As you well point out, prediction right now is a mugs game, but the train of heat starting in the Caribbean stretching all the way to Scandinavia is astounding, along with the incredible low pressures they achieved.

All that energy has been crashing into the Barents/Kara region, and the low pressure systems themselves are predicted to track north through the Norwegian Sea into the Barents over the next few days.  At the least, that will make expansion of ice very difficult, and may dredge heat from depth that will similarly impede freezing.  I will be watching how the systems evolve closely, as well as the incredible atmospheric rivers exporting of moisture out of Caribbean and elsewhere
 in the tropical Atlantic.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 22, 2020, 05:53:45 AM »
Sorry, Rodius. Especially for you: sorry. First I thought I shouldn't have said it  :-\  But then you just proved my point...

Enough of burning forests, killing 1 billion animals - not counting aquatic life eradicated in the aftermath (*). Or, half a million cattle slowly dying in the mud produced by deforestation and overgrazing - and the mud then washed into the dying Great Barrier Reef. Etc... I'm watching Australian sui-ecocide since the early 2000s. How many Hiroshima bomb equivalents of heat has the planet accumulated since? More than a billion. I want to vomit!

Time for a more benign, yet more spectacular and shocking catastrophe that seriously hurts the livelihood of many people (not their lifes) and less the living planet. Just one little Hiroshima bomb equivalent burning down a suburb or two...
MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australia’s re-elected Prime Minister Scott Morrison once brandished a lump of coal in parliament, crying, “This is coal - don’t be afraid!” His surprise win in what some dubbed the ‘climate election’ may have stunned the country, but voters should know what comes next in energy policy - big coal.
Perhaps my picture of Australian politics is a bit simplistic. (Perhaps people are mostly innocent victims of Rupert Murdoch...)
Australia says "F# you, Earth". :(
I say "F# you, Australia". :(

(*) P.S.:
Platypus on brink of extinction

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:38:34 PM »
update of mercator 34m salinity, sep2017-jan2020
edit: forgot scale

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:37:38 PM »
After it's over ...... it isn't over.
The sweet relief of rain after bushfires threaten disaster for our rivers
Fire debris flowing into the Murray-Darling Basin will exacerbate the risk of fish and other aquatic life dying en masse

And..... lo and behold a forecast becoming reality
Hundreds of thousands of fish dead in NSW as bushfire ash washed into river
Ecologist fears the Macleay River may take decades to recover, with heavy rains likely to affect other waterways

Hundreds of thousands of native fish are estimated to have died in northern New South Wales after rains washed ash and sludge from bushfires into the Macleay River.

Parts of the Macleay River – favoured by recreational fishers – have been turned into what locals described as “runny cake mix” that stank of rotting vegetation and dead fish.

One freshwater ecologist told Guardian Australia the impact of the fish kill might be felt for decades to come, with long-lived species like Australian bass hit hard.

The NSW Department of Primary Industries has been receiving reports of “hundreds of thousands” of fish dead in the river since December 2019.

Locals say rain in the past 10 days has seen more ash and mud from the parched and burned landscape running into the river.

Larry Newberry, a recreational fisher from Frederickton, near Kempsey, said he drove 100km to George’s Creek to survey the river last weekend.

“I would say from what I’ve seen I would not be surprised that it’s wiped out every fish in at least 100 kilometres of the river,” he said. “The stench was overwhelming – it stank that much it made you heave. It’s the dead fish, the rotting vegetation and the ash from the fires and maybe the fire retardant. It is just like brown sludge. “I’ve been fishing the river for 50 years and I have seen fish kills before, but nothing of this magnitude. This will be happening in every east coast river that’s been hit by bushfires.”

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 17, 2020, 01:40:03 AM »
Only odd numbers of cells can be fully stable. Any even count of cells would require air to rise over the coldest part of the arctic and sink over warmer regions. That is not stable. In a system with an odd number of cells, the driving force of the odd numbered cells powers the even cells between them.

As we have watched the atmosphere slow and destabilize with the loss of the arctic ice, we have also seen a new dynamic form with what looks like a multi-lobed cell over the pole. Is that real? or stable?

It is fascinating to watch, though also somewhat morbid.

Exactly what happens to the atmosphere and how it changes from a three cell system to the equable climate system is as yet unknown. Also still uncertain is exactly what that looks like. Is it a true one cell system (equatorial to polar)? Or is it something different?

The coriolis forces divert the poleward flows radially creating a torque in the atmosphere that under current conditions also prevent a single cell from forming. With a deeper atmosphere, different flow conditions and drag forces that perhaps changes.

Perhaps that looks like a slowly rotating vortex over the pole that is a mostly vertically stagnant part of the down flow single cell system. Perhaps it is something else. I haven't found any research that offers a solution - other than looking to Venus as an example. Have any of you seen any papers on the subject that offer likely solutions?


Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 15, 2020, 05:03:32 PM »
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Won't happen for the whole hemisphere.
If it happens, it will be only over the oceans.

The 'failing' of the Polar jet allows for both Arctic plunges into areas covered by the Sub tropical Jet but also near direct transport of more Tropical air masses North

There has been increasing in such events/impacts since the turn of the century with record snow in areas not accustomed to such and unseasonable warmth over the dark of the polar night in the far north.

Will not the 'washing out' of distinct air mass types lead to a further lessening of the Jets and their speeds at height?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2020, 11:21:02 PM »

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 09, 2020, 10:03:56 PM »
There was a strong northern wind blowing over the Barents sea for a long time at the end of this summer, and that cooled it down a lot.

Indeed.  There have been cold north winds in that region for much of the past year.

Average surface wind anomalies during the past 12 months: (source)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:43:17 PM »
gnnng sdlkto vlspto  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:30:06 PM »
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 03:14:21 PM »
Yep, the current in Bering Strait is mostly northwards, though with occasional reversals. The surface is quite rarely outbound of Arctic, the bottom (c.50m deep) more often, but the net is usually northwards. Formerly Oyashio-current was more powerful when Ohotsk and Bering Sea had thicker ice.

If someone did the dam there they'd better open it when ever current is southbound, I guess.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 03, 2020, 06:58:11 PM »
Yes, Freegrass, the article mentioned how the air around this tiny vortex is rather warm.

Europe snow cover is also below average.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 03, 2020, 06:10:40 PM »
Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948

December 31 2019,  with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date,  surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018)

Link >>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 09:47:06 AM »
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)

Wow, that sucks. Good luck, I hope you have a good judge in a good mood.

Meanwhile, September 2019 didn't break any regional records, but was stil second warmest on record overall, and the third time after 2006 and 2016 to be above freezing (in my spreadsheet):

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 07:04:29 AM »
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

[Sorry, totally off topic, but interesting nonetheless.]

Freegrass, I don't know where you live, but in the U.S. cannabis is slowly being legalized in more and more states. Most of the Dem candidates seem to be for federal legalization. More and more conservatives are getting on board too as more data is produced showing the benefits of weed compared to many legal drugs that are more harmful. There are cannabis conferences popping up all over the place, involving merchants and lawyers. Hemp-derived CBD is essentially legal nationwide since 2018 but regulatory schemes are still in doubt. The FDA may screw it all up as they often do.

Anyway, I don't think your fight has been in vain. Attitudes toward weed have liberalized radically over the past few years.

Although I have never been a pot user, I became interested in the commercial aspects of it because a fried of mine came up with an interesting product (combo drug). Also, I developed a terrible pain in my shoulder and neck about a year ago and found great relief using a topical salve I purchased in one of the states that legalized pot. I currently live in a state that doesn't yet permit the sale of cannabis, only the sale of hemp CBD. I therefore developed my own very effective topical pain salve that contains CBD (and presumably no more than the legal limit of 0.3% THC) and other components. It has miraculously cured my pain better than the stuff I bought before.

Anyway, this is no "snow job" so hopefully on topic!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:54:54 PM »
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
ps: The ESS is being attacked from both sides - earlier melt in Laptev & Chukchi, and from the south - a warming Siberia.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .

Most regrettable you feel like that, I always welcome being able to read contributions that foster my own understanding and I have always felt that this forum has a brilliant tolerance to those less knowledgeable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 01:53:18 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The colder temperatures exactly where the ice pack is. It's about a week until the inner basin should start to refreeze very quickly. But we'll see how it will go this year since it was the highest AWP in summer this year

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 08:29:41 PM »
I wasnt aware (until today) that the old Norwegian Met Ice Service and charts, previously available at (url no longer works) are now available in a new revamped website at:

I've just perused through this site and it is a treasure trove of charts and data. ASIF members, bookmark it ! 

Maybe mods would like to add it to the ASIG section ?

Here is a sample of some of the images available on the website  (Mosaic view of Sentinel 1 images) :

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:15:57 PM »
Slideshow with the latest images.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:59:05 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

A valid hypothesis!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:45:38 AM »
7d hindcast mean...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:40:30 AM »
I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...

I don't think so in a currently significant manner.

Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.

Further as far as i can observe, the Atlantic warm waters flow ever farther east along the Russian coast. I think it has mostly to do with prevailing winds/currents and with the more mobile ice conditions.

In spring and during summer we could very well observe the thicker than usual ice north of the islands and since the north of the islands are in "Lee" current-wise it got kind of stuck there.

Of course what remains is to further carefully watch the coming seasons to see whether a pattern
is developing or not. Nothing is certain these day (or ever)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2019, 08:24:28 AM »
The wind has some say in this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 08:24:44 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 04:17:58 AM »

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling.  But the best way to get a wider cover of snow on the continents adjacent to the Arctic is to disrupt the polar vortex and allow more cold arctic air to spread further away from the central Arctic, meaning the central Arctic becomes warmer.
Yes! Extra snowcover also has the impact of aiding -500MB anomalies in the continents, with ensuing cold blasts into the mid-latitude oceans a particularly potent method of advecting additional oceanic heat into the Arctic. Continental snowfall is good from the perspective of blunting incoming warmth to the Arctic that would originate from the continents, it is bad from the perspective that -500MB anomalies are effective at evacuating mid-latitude oceanic heat northwards, into the Arctic.

IF the continents are snowcovered AND the Arcic is fully ice-covered, the outcome of snow-covered continents is probably net beneficial to sea ice. However, if the continents are snowcovered and the Arctic pack is entirely surrounded by water -- as is currently the case -- perhaps this is when the oceanic feedbacks derivative of the -500MB anomalies really kick into overdrive. When the sea ice is surrounded by hundreds or thousands of miles of open water, the positive benefits of continental snowcover are lost as that air which would normally advect overtop the sea ice, depleted of heat and moisture, is instead often muddled by cyclonic activity as it meets the open waters of the ESS / Laptev/ whathaveyou.

I had not considered this juxtaposition before, but it would make quite a bit of sense in explaining why atmospheric circulation goes to particular sh*t in the autumnal months as of late.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2019, 09:13:15 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 24, 2019, 05:42:28 PM »
I see them 'likes' as imaginary beautiful flowers to give away for free. There's no end to those flowers, they just keep on coming :).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 22, 2019, 01:52:10 PM »
Hindcast: 9/18 to 9/22, Forecast: 9/22 to 9/26.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 04:46:32 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:21:20 PM »
Hindcast: 9/14 to 9/18, Forecast: 9/18 to 9/22.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:40:43 PM »
Updated full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:,2905.msg228895.html#msg228895

Hindcast: 9/12 to 9/16, Forecast: 9/16 to 9/20. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:25:50 PM »
Hindcast: 9/12 to 9/16, Forecast: 9/16 to 9/20.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 12:37:10 AM »
Well it's funny when bbr of all the prople, starts talking (read attacking) about somebody else's false predictions, which are according to his words not just honest mistakes (btw nothing the guy said at that point looked like trash that doesn't make any sense, CAB numbers weren't weak, but July was hot and we are still practically tied with 2016.) but trolling. Man you are literally famous for that on this forum, with much more ridiculous "predictions". Every time you see something you "like", you post these 10 day forecasts of every single run that helps your "case".

It's not a denialist mistake to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes with their predictions. It's just a mistake. What do we call people who voted for BOE option THIS YEAR, during this melting season. Or do you think that was more realistic than weatherdude's prediction. They were just wronglike him. That is it. No conspiracies or hidden meanings behind every false prediction. Some are more realistic, some are less.

Please guys stop attacking and bullying people every time there is somebody who has different prediction, compared to yours, even if they are wrong.  Cause you also are wrong a lot., like many people here, including me. Nobody could have predicted such a strong HP during the first half of the summer, especially after last few years (there was a talk last year or 2017 I remember very well, that because of the warming, cloudy cool summers are a new norm). And after all of that, nobody could have predicted such a slow August melt. It was proven dozens of times to all of us that Arctic is almost impossible to predict and full of surprises.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:53:48 AM »
some people here don't like it when new members...

I'm a thick-skinned relic. I don't mind getting extra hassles from others here -- nobody knows me and why would they suspect my psychedelic swirls are actually concerned with scientific content? Call me names, swear at me, whatever... but this professorial snarky-hints style (as if I'm just an undergraduate, so it's my job to figure out what the hell they want), it can nettle me -- refreshing my memory about why I hated school!

A godfather quote comes to mind: "What have I done to cause you to disrespect me so?"

Anyhow, I'm sorry to drag you back into this silly argument -- when people can just adjust their browser settings or site preferences and not have to act so unpleasant to us, when there are plenty more deserving candidates for accusations of abusing this site. If you'd forgive just a half-tsp of unsolicited advice from me, I'd urge you not to waste a moment's mental energy diagnosing the bizarre syndromes of haters. We got other stuff to do!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:11:03 AM »
I think you both can continue to post 1 post a day of videos. It is a good contribution. Make them a size so they don't autoload.
If someone doesn't like them and it really bothers them, this forum has a block feature, were you can select to hide posts from a certain user (then it says post is hidden, click to show).
There have been alot of people posting this season, you can't like what everyone contributes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 09:49:26 PM »
I check nullchool every day, several times a day. I find these nullschool posts very insightful and  often generate insightful discussion. Aleph Null's hindcast/forecast animations are specially nice for me because I often only look at nullschool's forecast. Having the hindcast in a very quick animation right on time and often generating comments is very useful to me.

And it is right on topic. Animations of models of the current status of the melting season couldn't be more on topic.

There are advantages to linking videos instead of uploading, for example, having a broader audience, but it is more work.

This off topic. Complaints have been a common recurrence on this thread this season. Perhaps we need a "Complaints" thread where forum users can voice their dislikes and find acceptable solutions without polluting this thread?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 06:19:30 PM »
Animated gifs are roughly 3 times larger for the content I prepare.

Is that so? When an MP4 autoloads in backgroud no matter what (as i recently learned - thanks Oren!!), and everyone opening the thread causing IP traffic, the 'click to play' GIF (>700px) would save a shitton of traffic.

That said, i do enjoy your and Freegrass' animations and i do find them valuable. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 14, 2019, 08:02:13 AM »
I hope others like it like i do! :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 07:35:36 PM »
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Sincere thanks to you & blumenkraft for the initial feedback. Maybe this place is a good graphic test bed. I'm still a bit skeptical of information overload here -- like there's so much going on it's impossible to take it all in. (A complication for me with some layered views I see.)

I'm an old graphic pro from a couple of incarnations ago, hacking about with my prehistoric version of Photoshop. The basic approach: two or more layers are merged into one, over and over, then the merged layers are output as jpegs, thence to EZGif. To pirate Aluminium's artwork I needed a little help from their splitter:

[EDIT: To be clear: I'm not worried about information overload here in the greenroom, I was referring to my own product -- trying to keep it simple enough to grasp.]

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 01:36:01 PM »
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing.

It is really awesome. !!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing. I've combined Aluminium's last with the IWPD layer of my previous hindcast-forecast.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 08:43:15 AM »
This one is most useful. If you could merge the temps in there that would be perfect.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:35:13 PM »
Further illumination can be found in the Nullschool Animations thread (where, they say, Freegrass is available to all):,2905.0.html

Hindcast: 9/8 to 9/12, Forecast: 9/12 to 9/16.
Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa [Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:00:42 AM »
Yes I could see the dog, Freegrass, better viewed zoomed out on an average quality phone !

Reminds me a bit of this guy  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 11, 2019, 09:57:22 PM »
On guessing games and interpretation of data animation

The architects of the weather-data detection, assimilation, and prediction frameworks culminating in GFS & EURO might bristle at the suggestion that theirs, the most expensive and sophisticated stretch to play the odds in human history (not to mention humankind's premiere scientific accomplishment, imho), amounts to a guessing game. A super smart guessing game: a half-dozen interlocking differential equations conceived as an impossible dream by Vilhelm Bjerknes -- how could this work when it takes an army of human "computers" more than a year to figure out tomorrow's weather?

Somehow it all came together, with a little help from supercomputers, and from visionaries wild enough to see what happens if you fly into the eye of a hurricane. That's Harry Wexler, who bestowed my mantra: "The atmosphere is indivisible." From this mantra emerges all understanding. It'll take you clear through Climate Science to general enlightenment. Everyone's allowed one foolish hope. I've got dibs on that one...

Regarding the Arctic this summer, I hear consternation about continual disagreement between models in the 2019 melting-season thread. (Lurkers like me have been kindly re-christened "new ice" -- I don't know if this level of forecasting churn is unusual or not.) Lurking Dorian raises the question: given that a model's basic function is to project forward from past events, is it reasonable to expect a model capable of predicting the unprecedented?

So there are a couple of things my swirly suite of IWPD animations are meant to keep an eye on: the health of the planet, and how well the calculus of GFS holds up today, under apparently burgeoning chaotic factors. In particular, these animations intend to sharpen questions about the model to inquiries such as "What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 11, 2019, 05:16:27 PM »
I just need to figure out now how to make the transitions smoother between the frames.

Attached please find a brief test of EZGif's crossfade (I always convert to mp4 before downloading), with frame-delay set to 100 and crossfade-delay set to 20. This is the first ten frames of my jitter test, above, slowed down a lot.

I seem to recall attaining a BA degree (fwiw!) in painting & animation. Somehow I gravitate to the non-lucrative pursuits. At any rate, perhaps it's interesting that my current focus (the swirly suites of IWPD) calls for an intentionally jerky look (because I want to scrutinize each 3-hour guess as it crosses my screen), while you aspire to the naturalistic feeling of the unforgettable COsc videos you posted. We both explore graphics to understand how weather works, but from different angles, at the moment -- with regard to crossfade, at least!

Note: This test of ten frames with crossfade makes a larger file than 50 frames without.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 11, 2019, 05:15:13 PM »
When I was posting videos, I used ffmpeg to convert GIFs to MP4s. I just took a quick look on Google and there are all kind of options for smoothing videos by interpolating frames.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 04:31:57 PM »
What's the official minimum then?

Currently, according to JAXA data, it is 4,158,349 km^2. Achieved on September 4th.

The extent data is misleading, at best.  The rank matters little - what matters is the sea ice thickness and the condition of the ice in general.

Unfortunately, the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

The sea ice extent is a dubious measurement, as highly fragmented slush should not be considered "extent", but it does seem to get included.  Therefore, the "extent" of the low quality single year ice of 2019 is compared against the "extent" of the multi year ice of, say 1995 - which is incorrect - it's comparing apples to oranges.

We need to be focusing on the multi year ice, sea ice thickness  - not the "extent" data.

On that note, how's that multi-year ice doing in 2019?

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