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Messages - Wildcatter

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 13, 2020, 03:29:05 AM »
      Alternate views of GFS snow depth forecast:  June 12, 18Z

      Poof!  June 17, 18Z

      The June 17 image also shows good view of dipole.  The positioning looks conducive for clear sky over Pacific side and some ice movement away from the ESS and Laptev Sea into the CAB.  But neither the high pressure or the low pressure system are very strong so wind speed where they meet should not be very strong, thus fairly wide spacing between isobar lines.  (My attempt to interpret the image for those even less familiar with pressure maps than me.  Caveat: I am not a meteorologist, I just play one on the internet). 

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: June 11, 2020, 05:25:11 PM »
Breaking through the Arctic pack-ice belt: a difficult and, even in the present day, unpredictable undertaking

On 16 May, RV Polarstern left the MOSAiC floe, which an international team of experts has been researching since last October, to pick up the crew for the next leg of the expedition off the coast of Svalbard. To reach her destination, RV Polarstern had to pass through a belt of multiyear pack ice in Fram Strait. The ship is now making her way back to the MOSAiC floe. Just how long this will take depends on more than just how thick the ice is. In the following interview with, Captain Thomas Wunderlich and Cargo Officer Felix Kentges talk about their experiences with icebreaking and explain why open leads in the ice, as well as the snow on the floes, are important aspects.

Link >>

Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: June 11, 2020, 03:23:16 PM »
Am I in time?

Still over 9 hours to go. The polls closed at 1 a.m, so there's virtually a full day extra to the challenge deadline which is the midnight after the polls close.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 10, 2020, 08:15:39 PM »
My theory that belongs to me is that when the temperature is above freezing ice melts; and the more it is above freezing and the longer that that persists, the more ice melts.
That's the most ridiculous theory I've ever heard...  ::) 

CM, it is a sad reality of Internet forums that those who are intelligent enough to employ self restraint post much less often than others who are not as self aware.
Be that as it may, I encourage you to post more often, and be aware you are easy to understand and quite coherent.
To your specific point, it seems to me the huge melt pond area is on the sea ice in the fjord, rather than on the ice shelf itself. I note that another section of sea ice adjacent to the ice shelf has extensive (but smaller) melt ponding, right of the center. I have no specific explanation for the interesting phenomenon.


If one were to zoom in with a powerful enough microscope, they would see that the ice and the brine are discrete entities.

In liquid state, sea water is H2O molecules bound by hydrogen bonds (intermolecular bonds) with salt ions (Na+ and Cl-) dissolved in solution.

During the freezing process, the salt ions and some of the H2O molecules are separated from the rest of the H2O molecules. The crystal lattice of ice is composed of only H2O molecules bound together by intermolecular bonds. Consider this lattice to be similar to a house which is held together with wood and screws.

The brine exists in the spaces within the lattice, but is not part of the lattice itself. The brine is like a sofa inside a house. It fits inside the house, but it is not a component of the ice house and does not impact the strength (heat) required to dismantle the ice house.

As you indicate, the brine does exit the ice lattice over time... by escaping through the spaces in the lattice. Most of the brine exits within a year of ice formation.

The lattice portion of the ice house is the same in the Arctic as the ice in your freezer and melts at the same temperature.

As one who in my chemistry career used salt-ice baths to achieve lower than 0ºC temperatures I wish to correct the physical chemistry referred to in this post.

When water freezes into ice, the hydrogen bonds make a hexagonally shaped network of molecules inherent to the structure of ice.
When a solute is added to water the ordering of the solvent molecules is disrupted. This means that more energy must be removed from the solution in order to freeze it.
When salt is added to water, the resulting ions in the water disrupt the usual network of hydrogen bonds made upon freezing. As a result, the freezing point of the solution is lower than it is for the pure solvent. This is termed freezing point depression.  As the ice warms up the network of hydrogen bonds (referred to above as the lattice) requires less energy to be broken up so the melting point is lower.
Because the solubility of the salt decreases with temperature some of the salt is rejected, forming brine pockets.  These brine pockets get eliminated over time but some salt remains in the ice disrupting the structure. In multiyear ice the salt content will ultimately reach the solubility of the lowest temperature the ice has reached so in thick MYI you'd expect lower salinity at the top vs. the bottom.

Here's an amusing video illustrating the difference in melting between saline and pure water ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:40:41 PM »
Freegrass, you should make a Nullschool soon :D
Your wish is my command Wildcatter. I've been having some serious problems with my family lately, so I haven't been online much these last few days.

To catch up, I've added the last 24 hours as well.

That storm in the Barents sea shifted again, so Fram export is back. And the CAA seems be getting its first heat of the season, as is the Chukchi.

That Lincoln plug held. Now I'm curious to see if that CAB low will disperse the ice.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 11:13:20 AM »
Welp, so much for this thread.

[edit] oren for Prime Minister  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:23:35 AM »
Phoenix, this has to be said:

It would do you well with a bit more humility and a bit less confidence. You have latched onto your theory like it's the gospel. I have taken the time to patiently explain some of its shortcomings in the DHACSOO thread, to no avail it seems.

Specifically I have explained the DMI N 80 data is heavily weighted around the pole itself, and is not a true measure of temperatures north of 80. And that the added energy from AGW gets soaked up by the ice and is not showing in temperature readings, this does not mean AGW is irrelevant. And that the data shows Inner Basin volume during the melting season does matter, and the CAB is not the only thing we should care about, due to melt progress, ice mobility and other factors.
I am fine with people expecting crashes and with people expecting recoveries. However I am not fine with your excessive preaching that can intimidate others from posting, others who may dislike confrontation, dislike harsh criticism and feel less sure of their insights and contributions. Be warned I am losing my patience. And the numerous moderator reports I have received say my instincts are justified.

BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.

When in doubt, there is always the 'The off topic off topic thread' to follow up on discussions.,2995.msg246051.html#msg246051

Certainly not here. You can use your recently opened PIOMAS thread, change the title to "Relation of PIOMAS volume to area minimum" or whatever, and go on from there. But if you are truly intent on not doing some of the data work yourself, effectiveness will be very limited.
In any case, leave this thread alone. You've stated your prediction, let others do the same in peace.

This thread is going OT. Stop.


I'm pretty sure that it has been very well established that there is no correlation between ice at max and at min. Annual meltout has been growing and last year was in second place for Max-Min. So predicting whether the minimum is going to be half a million km2 more or less based on the winter maximum is futile.

I don't suggest trying to use total Arctic volume at the max as the barometer for predicting total volume at the min. I would suggest using CAB or CAB + CAA (core) volume at 6/30 as a better indicator of total volume at 9/15.

We are not talking volume here, only extent. Volume is of course the only "real" measure that matters, but I don't think you have much change of making predictions there either.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 03, 2020, 11:10:57 AM »
Thickness map for day 152, compared with previous yeas and their diff's. Click for size.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 03, 2020, 11:03:12 AM »
A large amount of ice crossed the imaginary line in the Fram Straight in the beginning of May.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 03, 2020, 10:47:47 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs. Click to size.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 03, 2020, 10:28:16 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated to day 152 (~1 June). Calculated volume was 19.6 [1000 km3], 6th lowest on that day of year.

Here is the May animation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2020, 12:41:30 PM »
No mystery here. The NSIDC algorithm can see wet ice or melt ponds as loss of area, thus local surface freezing or snow can increase concentration. Besides, there is a reason why they use 5-day averaging - the data is known to be noisy. In general, I would appreciate if posters don't feed into wd88's posts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 12:58:57 PM »
Perhaps a bit more effort at content and even calculation, end slightly less emphasis on the condescension.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 04:18:00 PM »
I'm glad to see that someone brought up the topic of vapor. The large region of northern Siberia that is having the massive heat wave and snow melt has developed a large positive water vapor anomaly. It's not quite the steaming swamp that eastern North Carolina is today but heat trapping water vapor amounts are far above normal in northern Siberia. It's not just the albedo. It's the warm water and high absolute humidity that stores and traps heat contributing to subsequent sea ice loss in the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:47:20 AM »
    Ditto ArcticMelt2, thanks for the WAPost article and also those ice thickness images.  They could have spiced it up with some ASIF quotes from the Fabulous Friv.  It is a credit to the ASIF that the experts quoted in the article didn't add to what has already been noted in greater detail in the forum.  Good to see a major US press outlet paying attention to news that matters vs the latest ramblings of the mad King.  Actually, the WAPost climate team led by Chris Mooney is among the best of all the major newspapers/magazines.  Mooney even did a story about Neven and the ASIF back in 2016:

     Comparing the 2012, 2019 & 2020 sea ice thickness images, the one strength 2020 had was the thick ice near the Fram Strait.  That is the very ice that was presumably pummeled by the warmth, sun, and WIND this week.   2012 and 2019 each had a long arm that may have impeded Arctic-wide rotation.  2020 lacks that structural brace.  I don't know if Arctic-wide ice translocation is affected by the distribution of thick ice at that scale.  The significance of that pattern could just be a visual figment of my imagination.  (Or as Pete Walker said: a "Fig Newton of my immaculation") 

     The last 7 days of the current GFS shows Kara Sea temps consistently above 0C.  Not much clear sky & direct sun in that forecast, but the clouds bring some rain (too warm for snow) to deliver additional thermal energy to the surface.  All of which leads to forecast zero snow cover in the Kara by May 24

    The Kara is already running below previous years (,2975.600.html#lastPost thanks to Gerontocrat).  Putting that together with the forecast suggests that by June 1 the Kara could be in unprecedented condition.

    The Barents Sea hardly seems to matter since any ice in it is doomed anyway.  But FWIW, Earth Nullschool shows continued low-pressure system winds scouring it out for another day or two.  Does it make much difference to clear the lanes for more export out of the CAB?  Erosion of the ice on the CAB - Barents border can't help.  At least the great Fram Flush of early 2020 has ended. 

     Following up on Freegrass's tiptoe through the tulips of DMI images, looking at the DMI temperature graph for every year since 1958 shows that this early-mid May warmup has no real match in previous years. 

     It seems like every year the ASIF gets all heated about impending ice doom.  2020 so far is providing some hard numbers in that direction.  Yes, it is still early, but as wiser watchers have noted, it is the early momentum that sets the stage for the rest of the melt season.  True enough that a basin-scale clear-sky event would be worse if it happened 2-3 weeks from now and closer to the solar max.  Then again, decreasing albedo well BEFORE the solar max increases the impact of reduced reflection of solar radiation. And having a clear-sky event early does not preclude having another one later.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 08:01:04 PM »
I moved the posts to the Melting Season thread where they belong, thank you BL for the heads up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: May 12, 2020, 12:29:07 AM »
Ahh yes, I had to revive this thread as it's one of my favorites.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: May 11, 2020, 10:16:30 PM »
Laptev ice over bathymetry,, may11. click to run
Similar cause to the FJL/Svalbard side of the basin perhaps.
added a short rammb, nothing conclusive.  ctr

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 12:54:01 AM »
Really unusual is the near permanent ridge from Ireland to Alaska/Bering/Siberia .. ECM and GFS have it forecast to last the next 10 days .

  Oh .. And the wind , and the heat , the highs and the lows , the ejection of cold and it's consequences further south ...

 Welcome to the new May .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 08, 2020, 11:31:12 PM »
Instead of using adjectives like "crazy" to describe the winds

By all means, use adjectives like "crazy" to describe winds and other phenomena. In fact, be as creative as you can (friv is a good teacher  ;) ). However, make sure that the forecasted winds truly are crazy, and a bit of comparative context is always nice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 05, 2020, 11:04:05 PM »
The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.
This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.

It does not appear so.  The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains.  Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.
How fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds.  NA has been lagging behind.  This will catch it up a bit.

This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.

But Day-yum!

What does that have to do with the Arctic basin

Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: April 23, 2020, 04:37:34 PM »
Borrowed these worldview settings from A-team

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 19, 2020, 12:40:53 AM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, bering, mar10-17
added wipneus regional extent, bering, mar17

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 08, 2020, 02:58:07 AM »
sdft: lkjjthe oeuthglod '[aw  ;)  :)
asldkfjiov laigal iaoiu :P
apologies, I couldn't be bothered to type on this thread last night
ascat overlaid with unihamburg amsr2-uhh at 80% transparent.
amsr2 100% concentration, normally white, has been set to fully transparent to allow ascat features to show through. Missing or poor quality ascat days have been duplicated with the nearest day causing stutter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 11, 2019, 12:18:44 AM »
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

I read sark as a person exploring a phenomenom he doesn't fully understand, but he is trying to. I believe he posts here with the hope of acquiring insight from other posters and at the same time informing us of the changes. The vagueness is a function of his unknowledge. Exploratory science at its best.

But instead of receiving input from those who claim this is "well known", he gets pointless criticism and calls to shut up. Peer pressure.

And on the apocalyptic calls, apocalypse is the expected outcome of these changes, once you remove the illusion of human permanence. They are just barely beginning and they are being felt across the hemisphere, almost directly. It is not going to get better. Sark is right on point on that too. Scary, sure, but said any other way is lying.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:42:22 PM »
Daily gain 14k, 28 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
43k less. Also on the JAXA extent post, it seem the two bottom images are identical.

Don't mind me, just your friendly neighborhood nitpicker

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: September 30, 2019, 05:33:40 PM »
Why Electric-Powered Mobility Is Finally Finding Traction
The value proposition of EVs can’t be properly examined by just looking at the private car, which is something smart city planners are expecting will wane in popularity. Public transit, which sees a usage rate of over 56% in New York City, is a major component of any city electrification strategy, as are the multitude of delivery vehicles (vans and medium-to-large trucks that stop short of long-haul tractor trailers) that form the supply backbone of any city. The electrification of these elements within an aspiring smart city would go a long way towards reshaping our urban cores.

Jouret also raised other resistance points such as questions surrounding communal charging stations and the need for the local grids to accommodate high power demands in short bursts. The former requires a non-technical solution, something in the vein of incentives driven by policy and carefully crafted business models. The latter is a topic being carefully studied by EV fleet owners, such as the fleets of delivery vehicles mentioned earlier. A typical scenario for a delivery fleet would require the EVs charged and ready for use early in the morning. The vehicles would need to be plugged in at the end of the day, which would arguably tax any local grid. Enter the microgrid, a way to spread the load across the charging period. The depot where the vehicles are parked would have its own microgrid, supported by solar panels and older batteries that were removed from fleet vehicles. “[T]hey would use [the power from the stationary batteries] for when the vans show up in the early evening for the first part of the charging cycle, then switch over to the local grid say at 11:00pm when most of the consumer demand for electricity begins to ebb. So what that depot is doing is managing its own energy generation, energy storage and energy demand in a dynamic manner in order to optimize the cost of its own electricity and to minimize volatility peaks.”

European Countries Listed By BEV Car Market Share In H1 2019
Data below.
Denmark BEV share up x5, the biggest HoH of any European country.  Sweden up 500%.

Behind sales, a profit struggle at BMW, Mercedes
For the first half, BMW's closely watched automotive earnings before interest and taxes margin collapsed to 2.8 percent, while the Mercedes car division had a 1.4 percent operating return on sales. The results are well below the automakers' targeted 8 to 10 percent margin.

Why are roads and tracks the width they are today?  Because history.

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: September 22, 2019, 12:49:19 PM »
The agenda to demonise immigrants is clear.

Totally ignoring taxation of corporate profits that have been generated from having sufficient workers and the multiplier of government spending.

It's shameful.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:39:33 AM »
On the bright side we've now triple-validated our work :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:11:49 PM »

Is something up with the oscillation? Looks like it's getting a bit confused. Almost looks like a negative oscillation is trying to come through the front door, or setting up dipole behavior? I'm not sure. It doesn't look great though.

I think we may be seeing the kind of chaotic behavior that occurs when a system is transitioning to a new state. There's really no telling what might happen, and all our past history will not be useful if that's what this is.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 10:49:23 PM »
I am seeing some people here speculating that this season might not be a record breaker, and indeed cab area, the one most important to determine the minimum is lagging very far behind other record years. However, volume and extent are at record low and area is close behind. In addition to all the general indicators that are in the red, pious shows that the cab volume is at an all time low, meaning there has been extreme thinning throughout that region. This is the worst preconditioning possible if any notable event arise or melting momentum continues. Either we get lucky with an extremely cold august and we dodge the bullet and end up with a relatively high minimum, or, more likely, insolation remains high with severe storms, and we end up with an extremely diminished cab and a new record low by quite a mile. I d be betting on the second option

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 10:46:10 PM »
For the first time in years I checked 500 MB Geopotential height on NCEP-NCAR Daily Composites.

Because I guess I see unfolding what I was prepared to see for some years. This might become the season predicted, a very low extent/area minimum and a long, lingering slow refreeze. then some years of on/off seemingly stabilization. Followed by the feared state change in the Arctic.

The GH anomaly is, in a way, stronger than during may-july '12. Then, it was concentrated over southern Greenland, creating a strong flush-out dipole directed to Fram Strait. Now, the bulge on the mid-troposphere is strong over the Pole.

Coincides with the diagrams FishOutOfWater presented.
Strong influx of heat. Loss of Polar Cell characteristics.

And golfball-like hail in the Netherlands. And a probable all time heat record over here next Thursday.

I don't like to be a pessimist. I'll try to face what's coming with compassion.

Pretty Old Testament, isn't it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 21, 2019, 05:43:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 20th, 2019:
     6,975,962 km2, a drop of -93,858 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 04:23:28 AM »
If not one more cubic meter of ice melted or degraded for the rest of the season, I would personally not be disappointed in the slightest. It would actually be the best thing ever -- just out of sheer surprise.

That said, I also don't believe for a second any predictions about the end state of this melt season, bad or good; not yet anyways.

Why not just watch and be fascinated? We are watching in real time the collapse of a system that has been stable for thousands of years, for the entire duration of the development of modern human civilization. Even if it takes 50 years for all the ice to melt out, it would be beyond astounding. (My guess is more like 10, but who knows?) In my opinion we should reconsider our time scales.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 11:11:30 PM »
There's something interesting at the very end of the current GFS run. A compact low comes from the Pacific through the Chukchi. Obviously no one should take a model so far out as likely to happen as predicted, but it's worth noting the model coming up with this type of scenario. The last (and I think only?) time a low came through there this year, a few weeks ago, the Chukchi retreat accelerated dramatically over a wide front.

Broader point: We don't know what the weather will bring even one week from now. The models are changing fast and disagreeing. Basics of the system such as SSTs are diverging from previous norms. The actual weather could slow down the melt, or it could accelerate it, dramatically. What would happen to ice like this if a GAC comes??

This is the best month to watch.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 10, 2019, 12:08:09 AM »
For those interested in anecdotal evidence of what happened in 2012 around this time, I can highly recommend my own writings (someone has to do it) on the ASIB at the time: ASI 2012 Update 6: piggy bank

It corroborates a lot of what friv is saying.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 08:56:24 PM »
XXX-rated Pole Hole showing up on 12z EURO

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 11:33:18 PM »
For those interested in more details on volume, I've just posted PIOMAS July 2019 on the ASIB.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:35:42 AM »
Probably won't happen but my God.

Bye bye Arctic ice.

All the ice South of 85N might melt out this year.

Except near Salvbard

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 03:17:54 AM »
The biggest obstacle right now to the coastal route opening is the wind pushing ice toward the ESS and Laptev coast.

If the wind turns around and blows in the other direction, I'd give it about 2 days from that point.

If the wind keeps blowing as is, it could be many weeks.
The ESS should open a little, with this winds. And it must open more, with the heat that will melt the ASI.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 08:09:32 PM »
I'm more confused than ever - I had thought this season, and from what I've read from the experts, that this year was certainly shaping up to be roughly in the top 5...but after looking at some of the overlays and comparisons it seems as though the pack is not as small (perhaps compact is a better word for it), as I had originally thought. I guess I will wait a bit and see how the melting unfolds the fist half of this month before assuming anything. I think that if the anomalously warm water continues to inundate the basin from the Bering Straight, bottom melt will be quite vigorous.

Extent and area have very poor correlation with the final minimum at this time of the year. You can see just looking at the graphs at how close all the years are during June and July. It's not going to be until August when we might see that all this worrying heat that's being applied to the ice finally melt it out. Think of warming a pan of ice from the base. When will the extent at the top finally disappear? Has enough heat been added to melt the whole thing out, or will there be a thin skin of ice left over the top? Nobody really knows until the whole complex system has had a chance to respond.

Well put - that more or less confirms what I was thinking and why I will kinda hold my tongue until we can see the implications of what's been going on as of late.

I don't want to sound like I think that the ice in "good shape," rather I thought I would see more immediate ramifications of the weather immediately. THAT SAID, with the warm water coming in and the massive portion of shattered ice below 80 degrees, I think the melting momentum will cause a number of cascading effects.

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