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Messages - passenger66

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 18, 2020, 03:08:58 AM »
I would guess the slow down is pretty much over, and by the stats it is exceptional.  I have gathered statistics on the other significant slow downs since 2007 during peak melting season (June to late August).  This year had the highest rate before slowdown, the second slowest rate after slowdown, a relatively large range of days for both periods.  And when measured as a number of standard deviations away from average, both periods exceptional at well over 2 standard deviations away from average.

As a very simple metric, add the two standard deviations together, to get the attached chart.

2020 Jun 28 to Jul 22, 127,657/day, 2.60 stdev above average
2020 Jul 23 to Aug 13, 45,238/day, 2.45 stdev below average

2014 Jun 18 to Jul 17, 96,460/day, 0.72 stdev above average
2014 Jul 18 to Jul 25, 40,355/day, 1.88 std dev below average

2013 Jun 24 to Jul 22, 112,316/day, 1.73 st dev above average
2013 Jul 23 to Aug 2, 50,023/day, 1.72 std dev below average

2011 Jul 1 to Jul 18 114,548/day, 1.33 std dev above average
2011 Jul 19 to Aug 3 49,780/day, 1.99 std dev below average

2010 Jun 15 to Jun 28 97,131/day 1.86 std dev above average
2010 Jun 29 to Jul 15 57,322/day 2.08 std dev below average

2009 Jul 13 to Jul 28 110,608/day 1.46 std dev above average
2009 Jul 29 to Aug 12 48,697/day 1.79 std dev below average

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