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Messages - Florifulgurator

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 13, 2020, 01:27:20 AM »
It manifests in young patients so it is not related to age.

Every single medical study needs a context. Publishing news articles is not fear mongering per se. Do people need to add an essay to each news article interpreting it? No. But for the more ambiguous stuff it is a good habit to state how you interpret it.

Once again, the EU statistics confirm I was right on the primary wave emerging in autumn for most NHEM locations. We have not yet seen the cascade into elderly populations foment in most locations but I do believe it is probably now underway.

The virus cascades through school-age populations, then their parents, then their parents and peripheral elderly populations for which parents of school-age children are caretakers (IMO). It happens rapidly (NYC) or seasonally (Mexico, Peru, Argentina, the southern US), but it happens one way or the other in absence of NZ-esque control measures.

With death rates consistently around .3-.4% of total populations and possibly a good bit lower for populations with a primary wave during summertime, or those that are NOT obese and elderly, I think most EU countries will see total excess deaths around .5% this winter in absence of effective vaccine deployment due to unfavorable demographics and possible collapse of medical systems.

Lombardy will be an exception, almost everywhere else, it will be quite awful. With 741 million across the continent a total death toll of around 3 million would appear likely this winter (10X current / 200K confirmed, probably 300-400K excess actual). US deaths are probably at about 325K excess by now and are likely to double, as the primary wave is likely now OVER across most of the southern US as well as portions of the northeast, though it is underway in parts of the country that did not see major activity in summertime and successfully locked down in spring, a la most of the EU.

As a survivor of the primary wave in NYC who has tested negative (and began sheltering in late February), I would advise anyone in the aforementioned regions in NHEM who have not experienced primary wave yet REGARDLESS OF AGE to begin a 50-day hard or soft quarantine. The cascade takes a few weeks to become visible as the symptoms take 5-7 days to show up / etc. In Argentina, WITH lockdowns, cases have been doubling every four weeks, and most of the EU is entering their primary wave WITHOUT real lockdowns lingering / or they will be re-implemented too late -- the hospitals will be overwhelmed in primary wave regardless (IMO).

Make no mistake, the cascade is now underway, and while the risks of getting it as a young person are minimal, you do NOT want to be hospitalized or need medical care during a time when a substantial societal cohort is dying en masse. I think we are at the beginning of a very rapid escalation in deaths and it is likely to continue through at least early-mid November in most locations.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 09, 2020, 02:09:14 AM »
I have posted part of a Guardian article upthread and am wondering why no one has responded, because I think it is significant.

"ONS survey said 86.1% of people between April and June had none of the main symptoms of coronavirus"

Its old news. The Guardian may have only just noticed but it was on this thread by March for China and May for the UK.

It is significant. Australia and New Zealand have had significant outbreaks as a result of the people running their quarantines not taking this seriously. The UK came down from its peak a lot slower than it would have done if it had taken this seriously earlier, because a major source of infections in lockdown was hospital caught infections from asymptomatic staff and patients in non-COVID wards. There have been about 250k/day tests done in the UK since June for surveillance in hospitals and care homes to catch asymptomatic infections before they turn into outbreaks. Its probably an important reason why deaths this time round didn't go up as soon as in the first wave.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2020, 01:16:19 AM »
Would really like to see that math
It won't be forthcoming because in addition to imperative cloud considerations, it would also have to explain why the Barents no longer freezes over in winter despite reaching 80ºN where it's also rather cold. Ice may blow in from the Kara or across the FJL-SV line but apparently no longer forms significant sea ice on its own.

Like the Yermak, Barents too receives a branch of Atlantic Water inflows and has largely lost its stratification (previously maintained by fresh water from ice melt); in terms of wind mixing, over a third of the Arctic Ocean (mostly on the Siberian side) has shallower water than the ~300m deep Barents.

The Bering Sea too no longer freezes over in winter despite large water exchanges with the Chukchi -- which still has open water on Jan 1st in recent years. The Chukchi is well over a thousand km south of the Barents and only partly above the Arctic Circle.

There are no instances over the last 7 years of Jan 1st open water in the ESS or Laptev. This year bears watching however for open water persisting after mid-November because of the cumulative impact of double diffusion of Atlantic Waters over the years and the massive solar heat input this July to early low albedo open waters of the Laptev.

The AW brings in enough heat each year to melt all the ice, the question has always been how much of that heat it leaves behind -- more and more per Mercator Ocean and Laptev moorings (Polyakov 2019).

It should not be assumed that all the open water in the Arctic Basin will magically refreeze in winter. As time goes on, more and more open water will persist later and later into the depths of winter. A lot of blackbody radiation (Planck effect) comes right back down so it doesn't have the cooling effect that one might imagine.

It's all about clouds and moisture intrusions from mid-latitude:

Following moist intrusions into the Arctic using SHEBA observations in a Lagrangian perspective
S. Mubashshir Ali  Felix Pithan  19 June 2020

"Warm and moist air masses are transported into the Arctic from lower latitudes throughout the year. Especially in winter, such moist intrusions (MIs) can trigger cloud formation and surface warming. While a typical cloudy state of the Arctic winter boundary layer has been linked to the advection of moist air masses, direct observations of the transformation from moist midlatitude to dry Arctic air are lacking.

"The Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) and the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N‐ICE2015) expeditions have shown that the wintertime Arctic boundary layer is characterized by a bi‐modal distribution between a radiatively clear and an opaquely cloudy state. This bi‐modality is also observed in the time series from the ARM site at Utqiaġvik for the boreal winter (F Pithan 2014, fig 10). The two states have different net surface long‐wave radiation (NetLW) as the clear state is characterised by strong long‐wave cooling (NetLW ∼ − 40 W·m−2) under clear skies or ice clouds and the cloudy state with little to no surface cooling (NetLW ∼ 0 W·m−2) under low‐level mixed‐phase clouds."

Cloud Radiative Forcing of the Arctic Surface: The Influence of Cloud Properties, Surface Albedo, and Solar Zenith Angle
Matthew D. Shupe; Janet M. Intrieri
J. Climate (2004) 17 (3): 616–628.  classic paper on subject from co-leader of Mosaic

"An annual cycle of cloud and radiation measurements made as part of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) program are utilized to determine which properties of Arctic clouds control the surface radiation balance. Surface cloud radiative forcing (CF), defined as the difference between the all-sky and clear-sky net surface radiative fluxes, was calculated from ground-based measurements of broadband fluxes and results from a clear-sky model. Longwave cloud forcing (CFLW) is shown to be a function of cloud temperature, height, and emissivity (i.e., microphysics). Shortwave cloud forcing (CFSW) is a function of cloud transmittance, surface albedo, and the solar zenith angle. The annual cycle of Arctic CF reveals cloud-induced surface warming through most of the year and a short period of surface cooling in the middle of summer, when cloud shading effects overwhelm cloud greenhouse effects."

Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2
Aiguo Dai, Dehai Luo, Mirong Song & Jiping Liu   10 January 2019

"Increased outgoing longwave radiation and heat fluxes from the newly opened waters cause Arctic Amplification, whereas all other processes can only indirectly contribute to it by melting sea-ice. Seasonal sea-ice melting from May to September opens a large portion of the Arctic Ocean, allowing it to absorb sunlight during the warm season. Most of this energy is released to the atmosphere through longwave (LW) radiation, and latent and sensible heat fluxes during the cold season from October to April when the Arctic Ocean becomes a heat source to the atmosphere10 (Supplementary Figure 1)"

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 08, 2020, 07:06:49 PM »
The lies (and flies! :) ) were pretty much all from the Pence side, as confirmed here

Harris was pretty consistently truthful, though of course she told truths that emphasized the (many) negatives of the Trump admin obviously without trying to 'balance' them with truths that give Trump a couple of here unquestionably true statements were nevertheless labeled as 'misleading'--but again, far more of Pences statements (I don't say 'answers' because he hardly actually answered any of the actual questions) were labeled misleading, and unlike Harris, tons were outright lies, and yes, told calmly without batting an eyelash (or a fly :) )

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2020, 02:25:37 PM »
This article pretty much ignore clouds or overall atmospheric circulation, or anything else, and is just saying that if you remove sea ice, a lot, lot, lot of energy will be radiated to space in winter. Yes of course, nothing new. But it is likely that things will not proceed as linearly. Studies and measures are showing that it seems likely that open water during fall and winter is going to destabilize the PBL. Implying more clouds and moisture, which is going to limit the amount of heat lost to space. And atmospheric circulation, and oceanic circulation, and etc... are also going to respond to an ice free Arctic and establish a new equilibrium which is definitively not going to be the same that "all else equal excepted for sea ice".

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 28, 2020, 07:25:18 PM »
I continue to be amazed by the expertise shown on a couple Antarctic glacier threads.  Quite impressive for an Arctic Sea Ice Forum!

Something I've learned these past few months:
As for ... links ... between season and calving, there have been none in the past and there are none now.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 28, 2020, 04:55:35 PM »
I can't confirm your impression, indeed the two images in the animation, posted by Baking, don't have quite the same brightness and contrast (look at the darker structures in the image).
What I can confirm is that the two rifts: cR1 (the rift that was next to P2) and smR2 (the rift upstream of P2) are active rifts: in the month before this calving they have regularly widened and extended (with moderation)
As for the links you assume between season and calving, there have been none in the past and there are none now. But the season could be interesting: continuation of small calvings at the NSM and SSM and preparation for extended rifts across the PIG that may lead to larger calvings in the future. As I said above, I am waiting for the first clear Sentinel2 image to make a more accurate forecast.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 28, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »
A little analysis :
> Measurements: calved area 17km2, including 2.5km2 of ice mélages aggregated at P2 and that ,at the time of calving, detached from P2
> Ice Origin: Calved ice is part of the SIS ice aggregated at the upstream PIG.This ice, being part of the SSM, is thinner than the ice of the PIG and of the ice of T11.
This ice, being part of the SSM, is thinner than the ice of the PIG next door and the ice of T11
> Causes: the piles of icebergs between the SIS and the PIG that were pointing west/east and that contrasted with the advance of the PIG are probably the cause of the opening of the marginal rifts, and are therefore the main cause of the calving, but we must not forget the icebergs that were stuck downstream between the SIS and P2 and that pushed P2 northwards.  ;)

I, like everyone else, am looking forward to the first clear picture of Sentinel2 to discuss with you about what we can expect in the future.

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 28, 2020, 12:41:04 PM »
And we even have a high-resolution image of P2's calving  8)

Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 28, 2020, 12:08:51 PM »
I modified the image of my previous post (2547), containing only the lines related to the main calvings, and replacing the front line on 20/09 with today's front line  ;)

click to zoom in

Image update: I had forgotten to change the date in the image

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2020, 10:05:56 AM »

I'm one of those returners. None of my old posts are deleted. The old account just is labelled "guest".

If you want to take rebirth here: It would be nice to give a hint of your previous existence.
Same here, posts are there and labelled as guest. My former login was bluice

I deleted my account because I wouldn't have had the discipline to stay out otherwise. I wanted to delete my account because I got tired and annoyed about the rants bordering conspiracy theories, often related to Covid threads. Also I spent way too much time on the forum at the time.

I share your opinion about the Russia threads. I honestly think they undermine the credibility of the community here. But at the same time I don't want to complain too much. This is not my forum. If one cannot stand the discussion and moderation it is better to leave than whine.

The politics / Re: The problem of social media
« on: September 25, 2020, 12:50:28 AM »
Former Facebook Manager: “We Took a Page from Big Tobacco’s Playbook”

Speaking to Congress today, the former Facebook manager first tasked with making the company make money did not mince words about his role. He told lawmakers that the company "took a page from Big Tobacco's playbook, working to make our offering addictive at the outset" and arguing that his former employer has been hugely detrimental to society.

Tim Kendall, who served as director of monetization for Facebook from 2006 through 2010, spoke to Congress today as part of a House Commerce subcommittee hearing examining how social media platforms contribute to the mainstreaming of extremist and radicalizing content.

"The social media services that I and others have built over the past 15 years have served to tear people apart with alarming speed and intensity," Kendall said in his opening testimony (PDF). "At the very least, we have eroded our collective understanding—at worst, I fear we are pushing ourselves to the brink of a civil war."

As director of monetization, he added, "We sought to mine as much attention as humanly possible... We took a page form Big Tobacco's playbook, working to make our offering addictive at the outset."

His analogy continued:

... Tobacco companies initially just sought to make nicotine more potent. But eventually that wasn't enough to grow the business as fast as they wanted. And so they added sugar and menthol to cigarettes so you could hold the smoke in your lungs for longer periods. At Facebook, we added status updates, photo tagging, and likes, which made status and reputation primary and laid the groundwork for a teenage mental health crisis.

Allowing for misinformation, conspiracy theories, and fake news to flourish were like Big Tobacco's bronchodilators, which allowed the cigarette smoke to cover more surface area of the lungs. But that incendiary content alone wasn't enough. To continue to grow the user base and in particular, the amount of time and attention users would surrender to Facebook, they needed more.

Engagement leads to profits, and so engagement with content is everything, Kendall later expanded in response to questions, adding that "engagement" was the metric that drove all Facebook decisions when he was at the company, and he assumes that's still true today.

"We initially used engagement as sort of a proxy for user benefit," Kendall explained. "But we also started to realize that engagement could also mean [users] were sufficiently sucked in that they couldn't work in their own best long-term interest to get off the platform... We started to see real-life consequences, but they weren't given much weight. Engagement always won, it always trumped."

"There's no incentive to stop [toxic content] and there's incredible incentive to keep going and get better," Kendall said. "I just don't believe that's going to change unless there are financial, civil, or criminal penalties associated with the harm that they create. Without enforcement, they're just going to continue to be embarrassed by the mistakes, and they'll talk about empty platitudes... but I don't believe anything systemic will change... the incentives to keep the status quo are just too lucrative at the moment."

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 23, 2020, 10:56:12 AM »
wili, sorry to hear that your father is dying. I wish it is not COVID-19 related and that his departure will be a moment of unity and love. I think it's okay to hug people if each turns their face to the same side.
I'll miss you for a while.


All dogma's are wrong.
People lose sight of the reasons behind the dogma, and dogma is a fixed set of behaviour and rules which makes it completely closed to changes in society/culture, new science-based insights and the fact that humans cannot be put in one category. Furthermore it implies a ruler but many times the ruler is long gone and people keep blindly following old dogma without leader or original arguments. Such as economic growth; tidiness; forced monogamy; a pet animal; material accumulation.

This is my opinion, not an attack on other opinions. And not specific to abortion.
Child death is completely natural.

Oren, you're right, this leads to nowhere because in general people with dogma's are very biased and are not open for change.

Tom, please give it a rest. There's no sense in trying to change our opinions of your dogma.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 23, 2020, 12:01:14 AM »
And...false equivalence rules the day again.

Can't post for a while--father dying.

Best wishes to all in troubled times.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 21, 2020, 12:16:06 AM »
Feck it!

I have been sanctioned (not here you understand?) for my Jan/Feb take on the threat of this Virus and now I feel I must speak out again (though I've hinted at my concerns these past few weeks?)

The U.S is finding an upsurge in School/College infection now they have gone back into class

Young, immature, Lungs do not have the same 'density' of 'receptor cells' as does an adult Lung.

The 'Corona Virus' is named for its 'Corona' of protein spikes in its surface.

These 'Protein Spikes' have already seen a 4 to 5  fold increase in number over the surface of the virus as it adapts to the 'New Host'.

How will WE force it to adapt when we offer it the new diet of 'Immature Lungs'?

I guess the mutations that best offord it a chance to infect such a fayre will become the 'New' major strain in circulation?

What when this new 'Major Strain' hits an Adult, mature, filled with its 'average' quotient of 'receptor Cells' Lung?

An Adult Lung protected with a 'young/robust' immune system?

Would such a 'Mega Infector' Virus not potentially trigger an autoimmune 'over-reaction' to the threat in such folk?

The 'Cytokine Storm' that took tens of millions of our young in late 1918/early 1919 was such an 'autoimmune misfire', Blue on Blue....

Did Hominids evolve with a 'Kill Switch' to stop a 'Novel Virus' from driving extinction events?

Is that what the 'Cytokine Storm' is?

A 'Kill Switch' dropping the very folk most likely to transmit any new Virus?

The Young,Fit and Active?.........

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 20, 2020, 03:59:13 AM »
BK, if you are lurking, please know that I join in what others have said.

You were/are a very valuable member of this community!

Please consider making another account, and rejoining the discussions on the sea ice threads.  We miss your valuable input. Just stay away from the political threads and your blood pressure won’t rise so high. I know that every time I stray from the cryosphere section, I always regret it.

I have thought about deleting my account a few times. But, that would not accomplish anything, and I would miss this place. Lurking in silence is just not the same.

Give it some thought. If you do decide to comeback, I’m sure there will be no hard feelings with anyone. There seems to have been a lot of miscommunication. I don’t think anyone had it out for you, and I certainly don’t think you had it out for anyone.

I hope you decide to come back. If not, I understand, and I thank you for your contributions. If we can’t speak again, good luck to you! I wish you well!

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 10:26:07 PM »
A moderator should put a stop to your abuse.

Agreed, even though I find it mildly entertaining.

I much prefer FGs posts in the Cryosphere area. He offers good info, and his posting style there is generally pleasant.
Thanks HapH! I really appreciate that...  :)

What I would love to see on this forum is what I've already suggested a few times before, that messages about other members should always be deleted immediately by moderators.

Let's talk about the ice and so much more, but let's stop talking about other members... That only creates division and heartache and it's not beneficial to the forum...

It was a hardcore rule that was vigorously enforced on the Investors Hub financial forum, and it took the heat out of the discussions...

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »
I was lucky enough to get a PM to Blum before he left and was able to let him know I considered him a friend. He wrote and we ended our relations as friends.
 Blum was pretty far left and his perspectives kinda grated against someone like me who is basically a centrist which IMO is the most difficult placeto be . To be a good centrist you need to see issues through both liberal and conservative perspectives. So for me Blum was pulling harder to the left than I was usually comfortable with but comfort is always dangerous when balancing existential issues.
We deal with tough issues here on the forum, issues too easily swept under the rug for most people.
Here on the forum we have lots of left leaning members , some centrists , and a few brave conservatives. I would hope we could maintain enough grace around here to allow conservatives a voice on occasion because I need the challenge of considering two sides.
 Blum pushed my comfort zone and on occasion Walrus can make me work a little harder to justify where I am comfortable also.
 Thanks to all really but i’d appreciate a little peace for awhile.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:56:51 PM »
Freegrass, please, please, give it a rest. Let's say, out of respect for the forum. be cause is not dividing at all, that is only in your mind.
And realise yourself that you are in effect 'the flame'. Please ignore the oil, wood, diesel and gas.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 19, 2020, 11:20:11 AM »

World graphs attached.

At the current rate of daily deaths, 1 million dead by end of September.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 18, 2020, 08:21:03 PM »
I really don't understand the culture in this forum of people leaving and deleting their accounts anytime there is a disagreement. Take a few days and cool off instead, then reflect. After this people can solve their arguments with less emotions and insults involved.

Don't abandon this place because you have all built something special here. Its not worth it to throw away years of work for an argument.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 18, 2020, 05:18:44 PM »
perhaps it's time to remove forum decorum from the info centre

The politics / Re: Joe Biden
« on: August 15, 2020, 10:01:39 PM »
Thanks, flor

I happened to hear that Goodman interview, too...very interesting. There were other voices that were not quite as convinced, but clearly she wasn't quite as 'law and order' as some are claiming, and was more liberal than other CA prosecutors and DAs at the time

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 08, 2020, 02:16:11 PM »
A population that doesn't panic because it accepts death as a part of life?

Panic is to deny risk, forgo safety measures andthe end result is hundreds of thousands of dead.

Death is not part of life. Death is the end of life. Nobody wants it. We spend most of our energy trying to avoid it, as does every species of animal and plant. But everyone must accept it. There is no way around it. Not accepting death isn't even an option.

Virus is a hoax? Panic. Masks do not work? Panic. Herd immunity? The mother of all panicky mistakes. Hydroxychloroquine? The placebo used to lower panic in minds suceptible to propaganda.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 05, 2020, 06:00:28 PM »
That would be me, Martin. ;)

Thanks for subscribing BTW. Not original content though. I only uploaded it to my channel because it wasn't on Youtube before.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 28, 2020, 01:48:47 AM »
While BBR is correct in that fires are a natural part of Australia, the scale of the 2020 fires is not natural.

14% is a huge percentage, and fires are only going to get worse on average as the climate warms.

A lot of animals died in the fires. Animals are an important part of recovery and they are not there. Research is still being conducted concerning regrowth, but that will take time, obviously.

The Blue Mountains were hit so hard that 293 threatened animals (with the koala effectively extinct in the region) and 680 threatened plants.

I wish it was a case of this being normal and recovery will be normal, but it wont be. The fires we massive, hot, fast moving and destroyed everything in their path. While recovery will happen, it is unlikely to return to the old normal.

And rainforests.... well, they have never burned. Tasmania lost a lot of rainforest that has never burned before, so that wont be recovering like other regions where plants and animals require fire to survive. The predictions are for more rainforest to burn as the years go by.

While the 2020 fire season has been the worst one to date, the expectation is they will get worse. And since 14% was burned this time, and the frequency of the fire events is increasing, the natural environment isn't going to get a chance to recover like before.

There is no good news about this years fires, and it is going to get worse. And it isn't helped when the Govt refuses to acknowledge climate change further than it is a natural change and there is nothing we can do about it.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 08, 2020, 03:50:23 PM »
Personally I don't have those experiences you describe but I smoke most joints outside whilst mostly thinking and analysing.
Others may be very different. This depends also on the strength of the joint and the context of what you're doing and with whom.
This is very off-topic.

A busy month is coming to an end:

The politics / Re: The problem of social media
« on: May 30, 2020, 04:47:48 PM »
And learn from history

As a German, i learned this from history: If you let a populists scapegoat the shit out of people, if you allow them to spread lies and hate speech, if there is unchecked radical free speech, this may lead you to genocide. This is what i learned.

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: May 29, 2020, 11:15:55 AM »
‘Zombie fires’ are erupting in Alaska and likely Siberia, signaling severe Arctic fire season may lie ahead
Move over, ‘murder hornets.’ There’s a new 2020 phenomenon to worry about.
By Andrew Freedman
May 28 at 1:19 PM
The bitterly cold Arctic winter typically snuffs out the seasonal wildfires that erupt in this region. But every once in a while, a wildfire comes along that refuses to die.

These blazes, known as “zombie fires” or “holdover fires,” can burrow into the rich organic material beneath the surface, such as the vast peatlands that ring the Arctic, and smolder under the snowpack throughout the frigid winter.

With the Siberian Arctic seeing record warm conditions in recent weeks and months, scientists monitoring Arctic wildfire trends are becoming more convinced that some of the blazes erupting in the Arctic this spring are actually left over from last summer.

Last year brought a record surge in fires to a region that is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world. The Arctic contains vast stores of carbon and other planet-warming greenhouse gases in its soils, in peat as well as frozen soil known as permafrost, that can be freed up through combustion. Peatlands are wetlands that contain ancient, decomposed and partially decomposed organic matter.

According to Mark Parrington, senior scientist and wildfire expert at the European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), recent Arctic fire detections have been found in areas where blazes were burning last summer, which lines up with regions affected by warmer-than-average and unusually dry surface conditions.
Picture 1 footnote:
A forest fire rages outside Atka, Russia, in July 2019. (Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post)
Picture 2 footnote:
January-to-April temperature departures from average, showing the most significant temperature anomalies across Russia, including Siberia. (Berkeley Earth)

That blade came with an aluminium snath which bent long before the blade was going to. I spent some pleasant time in the woods looking for the perfectly curved young tree to make a new one but none of them were comfortable so I used a straight young tree, fitted the blade to it, measured it to my height with the blade flat to the ground and drilled holes to suit my arms. I never had a problem with it, apart from the split when I hit the ground a few times. The bolts changed the balance a bit but I soon got used to it.

I think my scythe needs a good blacksmith . I need the blade edge straightened because it has taken a beating . It is heavy and hitting the ground hard bends the blade. I guess if I can ever make this one work i deserve a new blade. I read you aren’t suppose to peen an American blade but I have ordered a preening jig so I can practice on another blade I have.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:50:22 AM »
What you are doing is simply unscientific. It's just maths.


Does the whole population get the disease, or do some people simply not get it, without their immune system being triggered?

I don't think you understand what the "Infection Fatality Rate" is. If you don't get the disease, you contribute to neither the numerator nor the denominator of the IFR.

All of this aimless conjecture to increase the bounds of uncertainty reeks of the same climate skeptic tactics that get so tiresome to encounter.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: April 29, 2020, 11:17:56 PM »
Quite frankly, because you cluttered the main thread with mask-extremism at a time when most experts were (for several good reasons) precarious about them.

There were ZERO good reasons to not wear masks. ZERO. Not even today, with the benefit of hindsight, can you make the argument that at any moment of this pandemic mask use was not warranted.

You were simply following the propaganda. The evidence for mask use has always been there.

There was a lot of evidence that they might be counterproductive. There wasn't misinformation, but the promotion of experts' recommendations.

There was zero evidence then and there is zero evidence you can present now that masks are counterproductive to combat epidemics.  Masks have been used to prevent respiratory pathogens for centuries. The physics are simple and obvious. Their use was ubiquitous in every health care setting.

Denying mask use was propaganda induced madness. Really. Cover your face and you reduce the flow of particles. That's it.

Now members bring relevant talk about masks and they are shutdown. Why?

Because there is this dedicated thread now. Here it's on topic.

This thread is dedicated to the effectiveness of mask use in general. Here we can talk mask materials, masking practices and masking effectiveness.

However, if anyone ever makes the math on how many people or billions would have been saved if mask-wearing was used from day 1, then that belongs in the Covid 19 thread.

Frankly Blumenkraft your poor defense of masking and then making you a mod on top demeans ASIF quite a bit. Not because you were wrong, but because you have not been able to process the evidence in a mature manner.

You were wrong. It happens to all of us. Admit it, learn something, and grow. You might even save a few lives while you are at it, who knows. We expect more of you now that you are a mod.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 29, 2020, 07:14:40 PM »
That complete & utter fuckup entitled "Planet of the Humans"

For those of you, who like me, have had to respond to people (e.g. my daughter) who, because of the name & reputation of Micheal Moore, have taken this heap of shit seriously, here is the link to skepticalscience's rebuttal.

Trouble is, once this balderdash has hit the cyberstreet, it can't be put back.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 27, 2020, 01:55:51 PM »
All the various pieces of data I have seen on this forum and elsewhere point to a true IFR near 1%. I would guess 0.5%-1.2%. Certainly and absolutely not 0.1%, and certainly and absolutely not 5% (with proper hospital care, an important caveat). This is of course dependent on demographics, and probably on many other factors (e.g. prevalence of comorbidities, pollution, early or late treatment depending on testing policies). Hopefully this will go down sharply at some point when a proper treatment is found, but even if not IFR should improve over time as global experience is gained in managing the disease.

IFR is hard to prove because both the deaths and the case counts are underreported to various degrees, depending on the country or region and on the epidemic progression. In addition, the serious time lags involved and the exponential nature of the epidemic cause a lot of noise and uncertainties. But wherever both deaths and cases have been estimated using proper methods, the data almost unanimously points to the above range.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 23, 2020, 01:01:07 PM »
I'm not saying 'it's only/just the flu'. I'm saying that, epidemiologically speaking, it is much more similar to the flu than we were led to believe. Of course, there are differences, and there are still a lot of things we don't know, but they could go either way.

That reminds me of people claiming there is a lot we don't know about climate, and that it could go either way, so we should not disrupt society to fight a threat that may be less severe than the consequences of the disruption.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 22, 2020, 05:22:17 PM »
General consensus of world health authorities: "If people don't put that parachute on before they jump out of that plane, they're going to go 'splat' on the pavement"

Neven, after most do in fact put on their parachutes:

"we are clearly not witnessing the 'splat' apocalypse that was announced with certainty, when there was none....

 It is now all about getting out of these parachutes, even though we are still thousands of feet up in the air,  the right way, so that an end is put to the irrational fears pavement splats"


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: April 22, 2020, 03:10:12 PM »
Some relaxing reaggea/punk rock.

No FX playing Kill All The White Men.

The white man call himself civilized
'Cause he know how to take over
The white man come to pillage my village
Now he tell me I have to bend over

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 06:32:12 AM »
Isn't COVID-19 stressful to the heart, as it needs to work harder when the lungs are less efficient? That would make (hydroxy)chloroquine even more risky and disqualifies it in severe cases.

Yes. Extremely. Though Herr Twittler assures us otherwise.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 06:20:55 AM »
Isn't COVID-19 stressful to the heart, as it needs to work harder when the lungs are less efficient? That would make (hydroxy)chloroquine even more risky and disqualifies it in severe cases.

I think this is a reply to #5524. The medicine was used early on in low doses (to prevent hospitalisation). 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 11:42:04 PM »
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)

The same holds true for all ‘major’ holidays.
I think you missed the point Sam. Easter is the celebration of Jesus Christ being alive three days after his execution. This is not the forum to discuss who  believes that or doesn't. The comment struck me as light hearted and made me smile despite the seriousness of the subjects.

Which is precisely why I skipped it - until John The Elder decided to make a point of it - and now you. It is not I who decided to bring this here. It is several of you who elected to bring religion to a science forum followed by a mild insult. If you truly want it dropped, then simply drop it.


And yet, the latest poll by Monomuth shows Biden ahead by 4, CNN by 5, the Economist/YouGov shows him ahead by 6, Quinnipiac by 8, CNN by 11.  Only Economict/YouGov has a recent Trump vs Sanders poll, and it shows the same results, Sanders +6.

Previously, the last major polls that show a comparison between the two Democratic candidates against Trump are IBD/TIPP with Biden +6 and Sanders +1, Grinnel/Selzer with Biden +4 and Sanders -1, Harvard-Harris with Biden +10 and Sanders +6, NBC News/WSJ with Biden +9 and Sanders +4. 

Summarizing these five polls shows Biden with an average lead over Trump of 7, and Sanders with a lead of 3.  I would believe these polls over a youtube video.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 10:23:00 AM »
Sometimes those things we can least influence scare us the most.


It is a comforting thought to blame humans for creating this. The real scary part is that infections like this can emerge anywhere at any time.

Freakier is that they have been recurring like clockwork once a century in world spanning outbreaks.

I doubt that speaks about the viruses. I suspect it says something about humanity.

The Indian variant may be and likely is -less- virulent, based on where the mutation affected.

However it points out a grave danger. The longer this thing is extant in the world, the more copies exist in more bodies. Each reproduction is a chance for a new variation. Each variation is a chance for an even scarier disease. And with more people infected comes more co-infections and the opportunity for cross over, and the creation of some new monster.

With variation also comes the potential that the variants require distinct vaccines. And the potential for difficulties, such as occurs with the five variants of Dengue and its vaccine.

On a different note.

It appears that self isolation as done in the US is resulting in something like a -1.5% “growth” rate. I.e. a 0.985 x/day change day to day in the number of new cases. This is excellent news. However, it is - slow. At that rate, and without massive testing, contact tracing, and isolation of those infected, it means that provided this holds across much of the US (unknown) that the new case rate about May 1 will be something like 75% of the new case rate today.

And what that means is that if self isolation / quarantine is lifted on May 1 as threatened by Donald the Dumb, and people actually return to their normal lives that the case rate will begin rising at between 1.18 x/day in mostly rural areas and ~1.355 x/day in urban metro areas.

It will take 10-11 days to see that begin to show impacts on numbers.  It will take about a week of increase to persuade decision makers that they have erred. And in that time the new case rate will have grown to between 35 and 235 times the rate the day the decision was implemented. If that is 75% of the case rate now, then the case rate will have bloomed to between 25 and 175 times the new case rate today.

And in many areas, with the peak in rates being about now, now is when many areas hospitals are at or near saturation. At 25 to 175 times today’s rates, pretty much everywhere will be in saturation. But those rates will continue to rise for another 10-11 days to 130 to 5,000 times today’s rates, before the restored quarantine begins to show effects. Should that happen a whole lot of folks will die who would not have died at lesser rates. That would take the nominal 4.5% CFR for hospitalized cases much much higher.

All of this is of course guesswork, with all sorts of questionable assumptions. People are likely to be gun shy to go back to their normal lives. Many, if not most, Governors are likely to show Herr Dumkopf their middle fingers. So the reality is likely to be much less severe than these numbers might suggest.

Then again, the stacked Federal Courts courtesy of Minnie me McConnell might well trash the Constitution and the tenth amendment and decide that the Commerce Clause supersedes everything.

Still, the impact will be bad. We can only hope that he isn’t as much of an imbecile as he appears, and that he doesn’t try to “restart” the economy on May 1, or anytime in the two months after that, without dramatically changed policies that drive the infection rates to near zero before trying to gently and tentatively restart the economy.

That is of course a vain and ridiculous hope. Our dear loser of a leader has demonstrated at every turn that he is a thin-skinned, self aggrandizing, malignant narcissist, sociopathic liar, conman, bully, idiot, fool, moron, imbecile, racist, zealot, misogynist, and utterly failed business man. Everything he touches turns into a heaping fetid pile of stinking shit the likes of which no one has seen before. There is no reason to hope or believe any decision he is involved in regarding this pandemic will be any different.

And whatever happens he will of course claim to have done the most perfectest and smartetest thing any President has ever even dreamed of doing - never mind the reality. And his troglodyte troll followers will genuflect obscenely and obsequiesly to French kiss his ass as he does it, while simultaneously blaming everything on the commies and their fantasy “deep State”. All the while, our neighbors will be dying for the economy.


The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: April 12, 2020, 03:35:44 PM »
Airplane travel during the Coronavirus

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 10, 2020, 02:40:47 PM »
Hello Neven,

i am lurker sinds 2010 on the ASIB and i am member number 16 on this forum.

I just want to use this thread to say: thank you for all your work and contributions.

I would feel enlightened if you stay as admin in the background to slap some moderators hands if needed. :)

I don't get it because you never made an argument on how this would play out.

I made an argument you can't possibly falsify because a right-wing SCOTUS would indeed CEMENT the vicious cycle.

OK, let's assume, everyone does what you are proposing and elect Trump again. What then? How would it break the vicious cycle?

PS: I too hope Sanders makes it against all odds (obviously)!

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 11, 2020, 03:12:36 PM »
Interesting.   Looking at the data at each end a little differently,

312,100 MW * 0.64 Utilization = 199,744 MW Generated

235,500 MW * 0.48 Utilization = 113,040 MW Generated.

113,040 / 199,744 = 56.6% generated last year compared to the first year in the chart

I voted for Warren but she dropped out before Washington voted. So my vote was wasted. I think Warren would make a good VP for either candidate. I much prefer Sanders on the issues but I think he identifies to openly with the socialism which makes many unwilling to even consider him.  Biden won't introduce new changes but at least he would reinstate most of the stuff Trump has deleted. 

C. If you think climate change is the number one topic, you certainly belong in this forum.

Tom has repeatedly stated his number 1 issue is not climate change. It is abortion.
And AGW is number 2, out of literally scores of competing issues.
I tried to keep this out of the forum as Neven asked. When a poster vilified me on my views on right to life in a thread that had nothing to do with that, I did not reply...and another poster called him to task. But Neven opened this with his blanket statement re Sanders. I will now drop the issue on this forum.

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