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AMSR2: Some recent days of 2020 compared to 2012Rough overlay of 2012 vs 2020 using awi amsr2 v103, aug20-sep15 (am/pm)
Hello everyone!Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.
I have been lurking this forum since December 2018 (I discovered this website through a Paul Beckwith video) and I want to thank you all for the high quality content posted here everyday by the ASIF community.
I wanted to share my findings regarding some questions that were asked about the Bremen sea ice extent numbers:
-In their website https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/amsre-amsr2/time-series/, it is stated thatQuoteSince July 3, 2012, AMSR2 data is displayed which is adapted with the same parameters as its predecessor AMSR-E. The fit parameters are not deduced by comparing it during an overlap period to another time series. Hence, the data ought to be treated with caution until confirmation by independent sources.therefore if I've understood this well there's no reason we couldn't compare the (future) September 2020 sea ice extent minimum with 2012's.
-Moreover, I've found Bremen's 2012 September daily minimum here : https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_19720101-20191231_amsr2.txt, It was reached September 15th with a value of 3,274,138.00 km², today's daily value is 3,318,268.00 km², https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_n_2020_amsr2_smooth.txt, so for 2020 to beat 2012, by that measure, it would need an extent loss of at least 44,131 km². If it happens, it will surely be by the end of the week.
I hope you found my post informative and useful. I have nothing else to add for all I know about sea ice I have learnt from here. I shall now return lurking in the shadows.
The eastern Arctic Ocean's winter ice grew less than half as much as normal during the past decade, due to the growing influence of heat from the ocean's interior, researchers have found.
Typically, across much of the Arctic a thick layer of cold fresher water, known as a halocline, isolates the heat associated with the intruding Atlantic water from the sea surface and from sea ice.
This new study shows that an abnormal influx of salty warm water from the Atlantic Ocean is weakening and thinning the halocline, allowing more mixing. According to the new study, warm water of Atlantic origin is now moving much closer to the surface.
"The normal position of the upper boundary of this water in this region was about 150 meters. Now this water is at 80 meters," explained Polyakov.
The moorings measured the heat released from the ocean interior to the upper ocean and sea ice during winter. In 2016-2018, the estimated heat flux was about 10 watts per square meter, which is enough to prevent 80-90 centimeters (almost 3 feet) of sea ice from forming each year. Previous heat flux measurements were about half of that much.
August 25-29.
2019.
That retreat north of Severnaya Zemlya is really spectacular, wow. And it's not over yet. Today and tomorrow there's a peak pressure gradient of 42 hPa, but according to ECMWF it will be 44 hPa at 120 hrs. The direction of the winds will shift a bit, but overall the ice pack should continue to get pushed towards the Pole.
This could easily become the highlight of this melting season! In many ways it's worse than 2012. And no GAC.
It will be very interesting if you explain in more detail what you are thinking. I will learn for sure. I don't see anything special with Freegrass' wind video.
August 25-29.
2019.
-snip-
I am beginning to become worried that as ice is transported back into Lincoln Sea, it is going to be flushed into the Nares. The Nares is going to export a huge amount of ice into Baffin and the open water in Lincoln may keep growing through mid-September. The EURO portends something along these lines, IMO.
Changes from July 31.
Laptev ... -100%
Barents ... -100%
Hudson ... -100%
Kara ... -91%
Chukchi ... -72%
ESS ... -63%
Greenland ... -61%
Beaufort ... -37%
CAA ... -28%
Baffin ... -22%
CAB ... -16%
Great representation of the Arctic, Aluminium!
A question: What is the meaning of the red circle?
”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.
Polarstern seems intent on taking a close look at the North Pole in the near future:
Is there any information available yet on the release of methane in the ESS this year? All those storms in the ESS these last few weeks must be mixing up all that hot water there and causing a massive amount of methane to be released, no?
Using the [UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate] model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, the team concludes that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea-ice melt. A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.
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