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Messages - Juan C. García

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 20, 2019, 08:35:38 AM »
Compared to the 2010s average 2019 is 10 days behind, compared to the 2000s average 2019 is 31 days behind. A comparison with the 1990s and the 1980s is not possible, because their minima are higher than today's value.

Climate crisis will not be discussed at G7 next year, says Trump official

The climate crisis will not be formally discussed at the G7 summit in June next year in Miami, Donald Trump’s acting White House chief of staff said on Thursday.

“Climate change will not be on the agenda,” Mick Mulvaney told reporters, without elaborating.

... “It’s deeply ironic that the US state most vulnerable immediately to climate change impacts will host a meeting at which global leaders will be forced by the US to largely ignore the topic”

Mulvaney announced that the 2020 summit of seven of the world’s most powerful industrialised countries will take place at the National Doral Miami, one of the president’s golf resorts in Florida, despite widespread ethics concerns and an ongoing impeachment inquiry into Trump’s conduct.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 15, 2019, 09:20:15 PM »
2,667 Bags of Radioactive Waste From Fukushima Nuke Disaster Washed Away by Typhoon Hagibis

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As Typhoon Hagibis hammered Japan on Saturday (Oct. 12), thousands of bags containing radioactive waste have reportedly been carried into a local Fukushima stream by floodwaters, potentially having a devastating environmental impact.

According to Asahi Shimbun, a temporary storage facility containing some 2,667 bags stuffed with radioactive contaminants from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was unexpectedly inundated by floodwaters brought by Typhoon Hagibis. Torrential rain flooded the storage facility and released the bags into a stream 100 meters away.

Officials from Tamara City in Fukushima Prefecture said that each bag is approximately one cubic meter in size. Authorities were only able to recover six of the bags by 9 p.m. on Oct. 12, and it is uncertain how many remain on the loose while the possible environmental impact is being assessed.

... In Hakone, in Kanagawa Prefecture, 37.1 inches of rain fell in 24 hours on Saturday, setting a record for that location, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, 27 inches fell in heavily forested Shizuoka Prefecture southwest of Tokyo. In higher elevations just west of downtown Tokyo, 23.6 inches of rain fell, which was also a record.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:04:44 PM »
Global Warming and Hurricanes
An Overview of Current Research Results
F. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups.    A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing.   These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.
Absence of  95% conclusive  evidence that it is happening is not the same as evidence it is not happening.
The physics of tropical cyclones  suggest warmer seas will result in stronger storms .
Physics  also suggests we will see warm core storms migrate poleward as the oceans warm .
Both of these effects are already apparent in what reliable data we have.
Waiting for such effects to hit an arbitrary level of statistical significance before we act means we would be  to far along to halt the changes. 


Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: October 14, 2019, 08:45:51 PM »
I think it's time for an overview of the whole ice front of Thwaites Glacier so the discussion of various areas can be put in context.  The image below is from October 4 and I discuss the major sections from top to bottom (East to West.)  The image size is 112 km on a side and the width of the front as a whole is about 120 km.

Eastern Calving Front:  This is my designation.  It is usually considered to be part of the Eastern Ice Shelf, but this section does not seem to be directly pinned to the offshore ridge.  However it is slow moving because the ice behind it is probably affected by the pinned ice shelf.

Eastern Ice Shelf:  Ice that is caught directly between the glacier behind it and the undersea ridge in front of it.  This shelf was found to have thinned from 10 to 33 percent between 1978 and 2009 after early films of ice penetrating radar were recently digitized.

Melange:  Irregularly shaped ice that has calved from a transition zone between the slow moving Eastern Shelf and the fast moving Tongue.  It tends to stay trapped between the shelf and the tongue before reaching open water after 5-10 years.

Tongue:  Ice that calves from the fasting moving part of Thwaites Glacier, often called the Main Trunk, and tends to stay in formation until it passes over the submerged offshore ridge.  The trunk and the tongue move at about 5 km/year.  The ice tends to calve in long transverse pieces about 10 km long and 1 km wide, which then breakup into roughly 1km squares and get glued to each other with sea ice over many winters before finally breaking up.

Western Calving Front:  This used to be a slower moving part of the Tongue, but now the calving ice tends to float free although it doesn't always move away quickly.  There is usually a lot of ice just offshore combined with ice from the neighboring Haynes Glacier and the Crosson Ice Shelf fed by the Pope and Smith Glaciers.  The Western Calving Front is very close to the Thwaites grounding line in this sector, about a km at points.  The worst case scenario for Thwaites would be if the entire front were to degrade into a calving front like this sector, just dumping icebergs out near the grounding line and providing no buttressing to the glacier.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 09, 2019, 05:00:33 PM »
The Guardian reports on a major study into oil and gas companies' CO2 emissions since 1965.
35percent emitted by 20 companies and their products.

And they knew about climate damage by CO2 from c. 1960-1965.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: October 09, 2019, 01:06:57 PM »
Today's worldview viirs brightness temperature, band15, night with yesterday's amsr2-uhh inset.
click for full resolution

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 09, 2019, 03:19:07 AM »
'There Is Not a Climate Crisis': Trump Administration Spouts Brazen Bullshit to Justify Arctic Drilling
...attorneys with the Sierra Club stumbled upon this tidbit:

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”

This text was included five times in this section of the final environmental impact statement in response to public comments legal group Trustees for Alaska submitted. All the All group’s comments revolved around the role drilling in the Alaskan refuge could have in making climate change worse.

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:38:20 AM »
Finally a linear trend. The 2019 data point lies near perfect on the trend line. That means that the zero ice extrapolation has not shifted either and stays at 2032. That, and the fact that is has not changed much for many years gives some confidence to this date.

So for comparison I have added the same graph that I posted in 2012: also a 2032 zero ice extrapolation. The 'prediction' for 2019 is spot-on.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:29:10 AM »
Same as the previous but now a Gompertz regression, preferred by some. The Gompertz function approaches but never reaches zero, but still the same postponement to later and later dates is clear.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:24:20 AM »
Continuing discussion this, here is an attempt to show how the estimates of zero ice have been shifting. It is the same graph as in the previous post with extrapolations form former years added.
Here the dark blue line is the extrapolation using data up to 2018; The next greenish line data up to 2017
And so fort.
Many years the zero ice prediction was close to 2015 but that has been postponed, on average 1 year every year for the last 6 years or so.

The rest / Re: The Koch Watch Thread
« on: September 28, 2019, 10:09:04 PM »

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: September 27, 2019, 06:10:19 AM »
Here's a final image scaled down by a factor of 8.  A tiny portion of B22-A can be seen at the bottom edge of the image.  The movement of sea ice over a vast region, along with isolated icebergs, iceberg formations, and a huge iceberg almost the size of Rhode Island cannot be a mere coincidence.

Ocean currents and/or wind had to have been the moving force, but the shifting position of B22-A must have allowed the sea ice behind it to follow along bringing smaller icebergs and formations with it.

It also raises the question of whether the fate of Thwaites Ice Tongue can be tied to Iceberg B22-A.  If B22-A were to ever unground and drift off, would the ice tongue become even more vulnerable?

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: September 26, 2019, 04:27:59 PM »
Iceberg B22-A has shifted between September 22 and 26.  It is 44 by 24 nautical miles in size and broke off from Thwaites Ice Tongue in 2002 and drifted about 50 km to where it is grounded today.

What's interesting is that is seems to have caused the end of Thwaites Ice Tongue, about one quarter of its length, to separate slightly from the rest.

B22-A shifted in July 2018 and caused the calving of Iceberg B-45 from the nearby Crosson Ice Shelf.

What's puzzling is the mechanism that could cause an effect on the Tongue 50 km away.  The sea between the Tongue and B22-A is covered with sea ice at this time of year so it is possible that the shifting sea ice eased pressure that was holding back the Tongue.  Although it doesn't seem likely, the appearance is that the Tongue was pulled by the sea ice because the remaining 75% of the Tongue did not move as much as the 25% at the end did.  In other words, it looks as if it was pulled away.

Below are links to full resolution images, six days apart.  A small part of B22-A is seen at the bottom edge of the frame.  Please Note that PolarView only hosts these images for 30 days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:46:22 AM »
I've discovered that Peter Wadhams has just made a new preprint available via ResearchGate on my favourite, and his specialist, subject - Waves in ice!

The field work was performed in the Barents Sea, and the main focus of the paper is on wave processes in the MIZ. A model of wave damping in broken ice is formulated and applied to interpret the field work results. It is confirmed that waves of higher frequencies are subjected to stronger damping when they propagate below the ice. This reduces the frequency of most energetic wave with increasing distance from the ice edge. Difference of wave spectra measured in two relatively close locations within the MIZ is discussed. The complicated geometry and dynamics of the MIZ in the North-West Barents Sea allow waves from the Atlantic Ocean and south regions of the Barents Sea to penetrate into different locations of the MIZ.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 11:50:44 PM »
Over on the ASIB, I've just posted the late(st) PIOMAS update, and I just wanted to share the final half here, because it's how I view this melting season. Normally, I don't like it when people post long texts, but I'm the exception to that rule, of course.  ;)

Last month, I wrote at the end of the PIOMAS update:

From what I've seen on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, written by commenters I've known for years and highly respect, my gut feeling says this year won't be able to break the 2012 records.

But for weeks now, I've been thinking of those prophetic words uttered by Peter Wadhams, back in 2007: 'In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly.' I don't think all of it will melt away quite suddenly in coming weeks, but maybe more than one would expect just looking at the data.

This year is a great test that will tell us a lot about the importance of melting momentum.

To be honest, I expected a clearer melting momentum signal during this final phase of the melting season. Melting momentum took off slower than years like 2012 and 2016, but when it did take off, it was fireworks (see June 2019, one hell of a month). David Schröder's melt pond fraction maps, the SMOS pixel chart, the compactness charts, the Albedo-Warming Potential graphs, the snow cover graphs, more and more they were pointing to a massive build-up of melting momentum. On top of that, PIOMAS was showing that this year was very competitive volume-wise, and for five months in a row, 2019 was in the top 3 when it came to temperature records (August coming in lowest on record):

It was clear that the spell of extremely sunny, warm weather was ending during August. That, to me, was the great test for my melting momentum theory. Weather conditions switched, but for a week or so extent loss was keeping up with 2012's pace, despite the boost provided by the GAC. But then halfway through the month, things slowed down to a crawl after all (see red trend line):

So, what happened? Of course, there was a cyclone that was in a perfect position to disperse the ice, but there was so much weak ice that in my view, momentum should have gone on for a while longer.

There are two possibilities:

1) There wasn't as much melting momentum as I assumed.

2) Melting momentum is less important than I think it is.

As said, it took a while for melting momentum to get going. Timing is of the essence when it comes to breaking melting season records. May was actually very sunny this year, but most of the radiation coming from a Sun at a still low angle, got bounced off the pristine white ice. It may sound counterintuitive, but before the real melt ponding gets going due to open skies, cloudy weather is actually worse for the ice, because with clouds comes humidity and the clouds also block outgoing radiation. This can cause the snow on top of the ice to melt just a tiny bit, deforming the structure of the snow, making it more prone to melt when the sun starts to shine in earnest. 2019 came short in this respect, as evidenced by visual inspection of satellite images. Never mind the fact that the 2018/2019 freezing season was much less spectacular compared to the previous three winters, when it comes to temperatures and extreme weather conditions.

I'm still convinced that without a decent amount of melting momentum no records will be broken. That's why in years like 2016, 2017 and 2018 it was possible to announce at an early date that the 2012 record was safe. But conversely, a massive amount of melting momentum doesn't guarantee records either. Initial ice conditions and late stage weather obviously play important roles as well.

Maybe I'm emphasizing melting momentum too much, but I still feel kind of vindicated by recent developments on the extent front. Over the last week, just a small amount of weather conducive to melting has helped nudge 2019 below the 2007 and 2016 minimums, with quite an impressive run of daily drops. Tomorrow or the day after, the 4 million km2 mark could even be breached. I always thought that this year would come in second whatever would happen, and it looks like it has:

Either way, after almost 10 years of blogging, I'm now clearly seeing the contours of that first year when ice-free conditions will be reached (in other words, an ice cover smaller than 1 million km2, which amounts to ice-free for all practical purposes). It is preceded by a freezing season similar to that of 2015/2016, starts with the melt onset 2012 saw, builds up the massive melting momentum of 2019, and ends with the crazy weather of 2016. It makes me shudder to think what the satellite images will look like then. It may take more time than most cryospheric scientists think it will take, but unfortunately, that's not much of a comfort.

The ingredients are there, AGW is the cook.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 06:00:43 AM »
September 11th, 2019:
     4,110,564 km2, a drop of -39,332 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

Thanks Juan, always appreciated.

The forecast winds are so favourable for compaction of the ice pack that extent may well drop all the way below 4 million km2 over the course of the next several days, and before freeze-up finally takes hold.

That is so even though 4 million km2 has at times been below the predicted range obtained from extrapolating using the progressions to the minima from the previous years on record -- see the plots that gerontocrat has been posting. (After today's drop though, 4 million km2 is presumably back within the range from those projections.)

The significance of that, of course, is that 2019 would become only the second year to drop below the 4 million km2 marker and it would reach the second lowest minimum extent in the record, below all years except 2012 (all the way down at 3.18 million km2).

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 09, 2019, 02:28:41 AM »
Dorian One of Strongest, Longest-Lasting Hurricanes on Record in the Atlantic
Dorian was also among the longest-lasting named storms, Klotzbach said.
As of Friday evening, it had been a named storm for more than 13 days, nine of them as a hurricane.

"It's quite unusual for a hurricane to remain a hurricane for as many days as Dorian has," said climate scientist Michael Mann....
Dorian May Have Influenced the Gulf Stream
It also looks like Dorian may also have influenced the Gulf Stream, the strong ocean current that brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic Ocean, possibly contributing to localized coastal flooding.

An undersea monitor near Miami indicated that Dorian might have slowed the speed of that current, with powerful winds pushing against it, along with a disruptive underwater churn. A slower Gulf Stream can cause the surface of the ocean to rise by several inches to a foot or more, said Tal Ezer, an oceanographer at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

That would underlie any storm surge, he said, and the effect can linger for days as it did in 2016 in Norfolk with extended sunny weather flooding the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew, whose path was similar to Dorian's. He said he's looking for that to happen in the coming days.

"After the hurricane disappears, streets remained flooded," he said. "The drainage system was blocked and couldn't drain the rain."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:07:31 AM »
A late century drop in extent shows there are still possibilities for second lowest place ( in my limited data set).

Here is an animation of the Arctic Basin compared with 2012. Click to start.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:42:20 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:28:36 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated (official volume data not yet). Volume on 31st August was 4.17 [1000km3], second lowest behind 2012 (3.93[1000km3]).

Here is the animation for August.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 04, 2019, 03:54:24 AM »
Thread by @iCyclone:
Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane #DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong. ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:00:11 AM »
I'm not sure if things will get ugly as the low will be a cold one
Hi Paul. Your second name isn't Beckwith by any chance? That would be an honor! :)
When you say "this is a cold one", are you talking about the resident CAB low, or the new one that came off Norway, and joined the resident low? Looking at these images, you can see how it's sucking in warm moist air from Russia. This air is the engine for that low. no? The more heat it sucks in, the stronger it gets?

I need to continue watching this lecture and learn some more, but I haven't had the time yet...
Anyone familiar with this lecture?

Edit: Already on Lecture 6 now: Introduction to convective storms. This is really interesting! He explains everything clearly in detail, from the ground up. Perfect for someone like me, with only basic knowledge about the "weather".

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:44:21 PM »


... Residents climbed into their roof as floodwaters wash away homes and cars in Freeport, Grand Bahama.

... Churchill Drive in Freeport is now under water. Residents are seeking assistance.

... A growing wall of missing persons is being published by BP as families in Abaco become frantic on the location of their loveones. Communities in Abaco are under water and many are missing and feared dead


Video shows rows of power trucks assembling in Wildwood, Florida


Quote from: RikW
... I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?

Rare but not unheard of ...

NOAA Historic Hurricane Tracker

Shown here: Category 4 and 5 hurricane tracks from 1851-2016 in the East Atlantic ocean basin.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 02, 2019, 02:22:21 AM »
Why do you keep attacking the messenger?

For someone who thinks they are a well read layperson concerning Aspergers, you really dont know much about it at all.

Let me educate you somewhat because you seem to need it.

1 - she is almost certainly disliking sitting around so many people. Why? Because several of her senses will probably be overstimulated and the most effective way to cope is to attempt to ignore them. Not easily done.

2 - as mentioned elsewhere, her diagnosis, or part of it, named one aspect where she only speaks when there is a need to speak, or when she feels like she has something to say. Personally, I am the same and in that situation in the photo, I would be doing exactly the same thing. Bored, overstimulated and having nothing to add to anything because it is already being said or I have already said it.

Also, one image says bugger all. Look at the people around her with the same look on their face? I bet most are neuro typicals, are you going to give a critical analysis on them as well?

And she is on script.
She speaks her mind.
She is consistent.
She quotes the science.

3 - Asperger's people have another quality that is lacking in neurotypical people.... it is called hyper focus. If anything, she will double down on this, not disappear. She will not stop, ever, until she feels she has resolved her own criteria for action being taken.
Trust me on this one, she is hyper focused on this. She will not simply disappear.

And stop talking about the people around her as being her handler. She is not a dog or a pet. She is a teenage woman who needs support just like any other human being. Seriously, just how much more insulting could you become?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 28, 2019, 04:56:16 AM »
Nice. Didn't realise you could drag the base layers and have semi transparent modis over bathy.
No gifs with transparency though
Yesterday I compared 2012 ice cover with this year on the same date. This tool makes it easy to compare both years, and I don't see any way how we could catch up to 2012 without an apocalyptic storm.

2012 vs 2019

I have trouble uploading data and graphs to the 'arctischepinguin' google site. So the updates will be delayed until the google errors are resolved or I have found time to do it manually.

The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Here is the animation for August until now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 21, 2019, 07:36:07 AM »
The storm has shifted a little towards Ellesmere island, which seems to have taken the sharp edge of this storm. Strong winds over M'Clure Strait have diminished significantly, making it doubtful that the channels will be cleared. The biggest problem I see now is the huge wind field, which will probably cause a lot of dispersion. And it looks like the cyclone that came off Norway is strengthening. Feeding off the CAA storm?

Reminder; This is all new for me! I'm a complete amateur who's still learning. So always take my analysis with a big bag of salt! Making these videos will surely help me to learn more quickly. Enjoy!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 19, 2019, 03:00:36 AM »
Big dent in the Laptev ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 19, 2019, 12:14:19 AM »
This is an article about the gravitational pull of Greenland. I also included a NASA video that shows the lowering of sea levels around Greenland as the ice cap melts, and the gravitational pull weakens. This could also maybe explain why sea levels in Ireland are going up?

Gravitational Attraction of Ice Sheets on the Sea

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »
The blowtorch is hitting the northern Laptev again. I wonder what that rain will do to the ice. The temperature of the ocean has gone down again, so I guess now we wait to see if it goes up again after today's weather?

This GIF starts @ 2019-08-16 00:00 UTC

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 11, 2019, 06:11:16 AM »
JAXA at 5.11 -130Kish though obvs Juan's post will be better  ;D

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 10, 2019, 04:01:55 AM »
Ocean at the Door: New Homes and the Rising Sea

PDF: 2019 Research Report by Climate Central and Zillow

Connecticut is developing risk zones more than 3x faster than safer locations

Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey, Rhode Island are developing risk zones more than 2x faster than safer locations

Maine, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are developing risk zones faster than safer locations

New Jersey, Florida, and North Carolina have allowed the most homes built in risk zones, more than 9,000 since 2010

24 cities—including New York, Tampa, Virginia Beach, Charleston, and Galveston—have allowed at least 100 homes built in risk zones since 2010

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 07, 2019, 08:24:39 PM »
Holy Smoke 8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2019, 01:26:13 AM »
Stumbled on this excellent graphic. I'm sure it doesn't belong in this thread though. If someone knows a better place for it, please reply and I'll move it.

Sea ice 1992-2018 ASI-SSMI - by DKRZ

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 11:00:45 AM »
Have anyone noticed that the whole arctic ice is rotating right now under not strong storm effect. The ice melt in north CAA and north greenland seems to speed up because of ekman pumping by such a great ice pack rotating? Of course not ! ;D
There may be some upwelling in places but there doesn't appear to be much rotation of the pack recently along the north CAA/Greenland coast.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, jul30-aug5.

Hudson bay ice yesterday, worldview terra modis

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 06:47:24 AM »
August 1-5.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 04, 2019, 08:52:00 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated. I calculate volume from the thickness data, gives 6.46 [1000km3] on 2019-07-31. Lowest for the day with a small margin with 2012 (6.68 [1000km3]).

Here is the animation.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 02:56:01 AM »
Greenland Ice Sheet Beats All-Time 1-Day Melt Record - Eos

Staying in the 3.5 - 4.0 bin. 

Average for the 1980s was in the 7s.  Going by the trend, it seems the 2020s decade will be in the 3s. 2030s in the 2s.  2040s in the 1s = BOE. That's impressive in just a few decades.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 30, 2019, 02:04:18 PM »
Great footage of the Yamal sailing through some real ice. At around 1:00 the ice seems surprizingly thick, with snow drifts and pressure ridges. Great to see what it looks like in real life, as opposed to pixels on satellit photos.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:47:46 PM »
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.

The Chukchi and the ESS continue to astonish. Observe how the graphs do not just deepen, they widen, with the profile switching from a V to a U shape. Big effect on AWP.

and even the Greenland Sea is instantly responding to no drift down the Fram.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:30:42 PM »
Think the Heatwave Was Bad? Climate Already Hitting Key Tipping Points

... U.S climatologist Michael Mann believes emissions need to fall even more drastically than the IPCC assumes since the panel may be underestimating how far temperatures have already risen since pre-industrial times.

“Our work on this indicates that we might have as much as 40% less carbon left to burn than IPCC implies, if we are to avert the 1.5 Celsius warming limit,” said Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University.

Mann has urged governments to treat the transition to renewable energy with the equivalent urgency that drove the U.S. industrial mobilization in World War Two.

So far, no major economy has taken heed.

... “Either we radically transform human collective life by abandoning the use of fossil fuels or, more likely, climate change will bring about the end of global fossil-fuelled capitalist civilization,” wrote U.S. author Roy Scranton, in an April essay in MIT Technology Review.

“Revolution or collapse — in either case, the good life as we know it is no longer viable.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 28, 2019, 03:55:56 AM »
4 more screenshots - Area, Concentration (opposite of Dispersion), Volume, Thickness


Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 26, 2019, 07:49:18 PM »
Wipneus, a question popped up and i realized I did not know the definitive answer. For the regional PIOMAS volume data, do you use the NSIDC map as I had always assumed, or the CT map that you use for the AMSR2 data?

He's using the CT regions (which were also used by Chris Reynolds before) for the regional PIOMAS data.  See e.g.,119.msg117013.html#msg117013,119.msg117598.html#msg117598

Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

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