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After a bit of digging, I found the following suggested values:Thanks for the calculation, however your end result does not settle with my intuition. The other gases can't be contributing so little, given that they were quite abundant in the pre-industrial atmosphere as well. If I am not mistaken (this is not my line of expertise, if such even exists) your w/m2/ppb numbers are ppm, not ppb, (or mW, not W) and the number for methane should be 10 times higher. I also have suspicions that the O3 and N2O numbers are much lower than they should be.
CO2: 278 ppm
CH4: 722 ppb
Stratospheric Water: ??
N20: 270 ppb
Tropospheric Ozone: 270 ppb
CF4: 10-7 ppt
C2F6: 3.47x10-6 ppt
Using Forcing factors (W/m2/ppb) of:
CO2: 0.014
CH4: 0.037
N2O: 0.12
H2O: 0.011
O3: 0.02
CF4: 0.25
C2F6: 0.09
This results in a total forcing of 3,956 and reverses to a CO2(e) of 282.56 ppm, or 4.56 ppm above the CO2 background level. Stratospheric water may change that a little. So, about 4.5 ppm above the CO2 level.
The most commonly used methods use a logarithmic ratioing to the preindustrial levels. It is cleaner and likely better not to do it that way.
The only number I have found is 280ppm CO2 for pre-industrial (in the UN IPCC materials), I cannot find a preindustrial CO2e number anywhere. A calculation would also need assumptions on N2O, which was about 270 ppb in 1800.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-3#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B%22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B%22N2O%20(ppb)%22%5D%7D%7D
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218dRelated ...
In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”
Ya think?
Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
I could not find a thread already open specifically for null school output. .
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
March 7th, 2019:
14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
It needs an increase of 26,964 km2 to reach a new max.
Unfortunately the ftp server with the detailed thickness data has not been serving me for some time now. I will look into that..
That's a crying shame
Do you have any idea what the problem might be as yet?
The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.
As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.
“You have heatwave-induced wildfires that take out huge areas of forest, but this is happening underwater as well,” said Dan Smale at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, UK, who led the research published in Nature Climate Change. “You see the kelp and seagrasses dying in front of you. Within weeks or months they are just gone, along hundreds of kilometres of coastline.”
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb. So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.
There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.
I posted the numbers on the poll.
Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.
To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.
If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
February 7th, 2019:
13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
Officials in the Australian city of Townsville are deliberately flooding several neighbourhoods after record rainfall that has swollen a dam beyond capacity.
Residents in and around the north-eastern city have been warned of "risk to life" and "unprecedented flooding" that could inundate up to 20,000 homes.
People have been told to seek shelter on higher ground.
Townsville has received more than a metre (3.3ft) of rain in just a week.
That is more than 20 times the average for the time of year - beating the previous record set in 1998, in what became known as the Night of Noah.
... The Townsville Bulletin newspaper said low-lying properties were being flooded, and troops on boats were searching for residents in need of help.
Cars and livestock have already been swept away around the coastal city in the state of Queensland.
https://twitter.com/madvoice/status/1092023384941027328
Meanwhile, parts of southern Australia are in the grip of a severe drought.
January was the hottest month on record for Australia as a whole, with the southern city of Adelaide breaking its own records twice in the month, first reaching 47.7C and then 49.5C
January 21 - February 2.The Atlantic strikes again, which is how it went from 10th to 4th.
The day after President Trump posted a tweet suggesting that extreme cold temperatures in the Midwest cast doubt on the existence of global warming, the climate service for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tweeted a cartoon explaining that warming oceans result in more extreme winter weather.QuoteWinter storms don't prove that global warming isn't happening.
(link: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/are-record-snowstorms-proof-global-warming-isn%E2%80%99t-happening) climate.gov/news-features/…
https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1090263390503596032
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.Hi, Juan.
January 8th, 2019:
17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
2019 is the lowest on record.
We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!
We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!
JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.Aha!
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.
but the interview is of course mainly about the arctic.JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,820,858 km2（December 17, 2018）
Here is the analysis, even though I am still unsure about the 263k gain on 16 December. The 17 December image is complete, and appears to confirm the sudden gain in extent.
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