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Messages - Juan C. García

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March mid-monthly update)
« on: March 19, 2019, 11:37:50 AM »
PIOMAS has updated gridded thickness data. Volume calculated from this was 21.95 [1000km3] on the 15th of March. That would be the 7th lowest for the day.

Here is the animation of March until sofar.

2
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 19, 2019, 10:07:31 AM »
After a bit of digging, I found the following suggested values:

CO2: 278 ppm
CH4: 722 ppb
Stratospheric Water: ??
N20: 270 ppb
Tropospheric Ozone: 270 ppb
CF4: 10-7 ppt
C2F6: 3.47x10-6 ppt

Using Forcing factors (W/m2/ppb) of:
CO2: 0.014
CH4: 0.037
N2O: 0.12
H2O: 0.011
O3:   0.02
CF4: 0.25
C2F6: 0.09

This results in a total forcing of 3,956 and reverses to a CO2(e) of 282.56 ppm, or 4.56 ppm above the CO2 background level. Stratospheric water may change that a little.  So, about 4.5 ppm above the CO2 level.

The most commonly used methods use a logarithmic ratioing to the preindustrial levels. It is cleaner and likely better not to do it that way.
Thanks for the calculation, however your end result does not settle with my intuition. The other gases can't be contributing so little, given that they were quite abundant in the pre-industrial atmosphere as well. If I am not mistaken (this is not my line of expertise, if such even exists) your w/m2/ppb numbers are ppm, not ppb, (or mW, not W) and the number for methane should be 10 times higher. I also have suspicions that the O3 and N2O numbers are much lower than they should be.
(I am looking at the table here and making rough calculations.)

3
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 19, 2019, 03:07:20 AM »
The only number I have found is 280ppm CO2 for pre-industrial (in the UN IPCC materials), I cannot find a preindustrial CO2e number anywhere. A calculation would also need assumptions on N2O, which was about 270 ppb in 1800.

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/atmospheric-concentration-of-carbon-dioxide-3#tab-chart_5_filters=%7B%22rowFilters%22%3A%7B%7D%3B%22columnFilters%22%3A%7B%22pre_config_polutant%22%3A%5B%22N2O%20(ppb)%22%5D%7D%7D

After a bit of digging, I found the following suggested values:

CO2: 278 ppm
CH4: 722 ppb
Stratospheric Water: ??
N20: 270 ppb
Tropospheric Ozone: 270 ppb
CF4: 10-7 ppt
C2F6: 3.47x10-6 ppt

Using Forcing factors (W/m2/ppb) of:
CO2: 0.014
CH4: 0.037
N2O: 0.12
H2O: 0.011
O3:   0.02
CF4: 0.25
C2F6: 0.09

This results in a total forcing of 3,956 and reverses to a CO2(e) of 282.56 ppm, or 4.56 ppm above the CO2 background level. Stratospheric water may change that a little.  So, about 4.5 ppm above the CO2 level.

The most commonly used methods use a logarithmic ratioing to the preindustrial levels. It is cleaner and likely better not to do it that way.

Worse though is that the reality is so much more complex than the simple methods suggest. The various gases exist in differing quantities at different altitudes, latitudes, and seasons, rather than as a homogeneous picture through the entire column. The IR reflections and refractions occur in differing frequency bands with very complex overlaps. Sun angles, latitude, seasonality, cloud decks and more all play roles. Etc... To actually model all of that would take an extremely sophisticated model and a supercomputer to evaluate. It isn't something we can easily do using computers at home.

Still, the simple models do seem to fairly accurately portray the situation as a smeared average. Do not take the number of digits in the result as significant. The result is only a likely central value, lacking any attempt at an error estimate.

Still, the calculation is instructive.  Where we were at CO2 of about 278 ppm and CO2(e) of about 282.5 ppm.  We are today at about 414 ppm (Mauna Loa today) CO2 and circa 540 ppm CO2(e). That represents increases since pre-industrial of about 136 ppm CO2 and 258 ppm CO2(e).

That is of course - assuming that I haven't blundered badly somewhere in the data or math.  Please check the results before using them. Assuming that I haven't seriously erred in the calculation, that suggests a starkly different consideration of the conditions using the CO2 versus CO2(e) numbers. Using the CO2(e) values, it suggests we will reach a doubling of the background in 8-9 years. Again, please check my math - especially if you have access to better models or approaches to perform the calculation.

Sam



4
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 18, 2019, 11:57:56 PM »
pre-industrial CH4 was about 700 ppb vs about 1800 ppb today:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/MethaneMatters

One should be able to make a pre-industrial CO2e.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2019, 08:36:57 AM »
It's a bit funny. Bezimyanniy (Безымянный) actually means nameless, or unnanmed...

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:42:49 AM »
Looks like this one; it's been active the past week or so ...

Bezymianny volcano eruption news and activity updates:
Bezymianny volcano (Central Kamchatka Depression, Kamchatka) activity update: Powerful explosion to 15km (50,000ft)

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bezymianny/news/76922/Bezymianny-volcano-Central-Kamchatka-Depression-Kamchatka-activity-update-Powerful-explosion-to-15km.html

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bezymianny/news/76965/Bezymianny-Volcano-Volcanic-Ash-Advisory-POSS-VA-EMISSIONS-CONTINUING-OBS-VA-DTG-160820Z-to-14000-ft.html



Edit: The present-day Bezymianny volcano, lying next to its massive sisters Kamen and Kliuchevskoi, is a young and relatively small volcano only about 4700 years old.

Klyuchevskaya Sopka (Russian: Ключевская сопка; also known as Klyuchevskoi, Russian: Ключевской) is a stratovolcano, the highest mountain on the Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia and the highest active volcano of Eurasia.

7
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:51:13 PM »
Juan, go to your profile -> profile info -> show posts -> likes given.

That'll give you an overview of everything you have 'liked', and should make it easy to find stuff, unless you 'like' a whole lot.  ;)

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 16, 2019, 08:27:00 PM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube . The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks. They are based on the latest Arctic Report Card subjects.

9
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:48:32 PM »
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
Related ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1858.msg191257.html#msg191257

Post-Hurricane Harvey, NASA Tried To Fly a Pollution-Spotting Plane over Houston… Trump's EPA Said No!
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-nasa-jet-epa-hurricane-harvey-20190305-story.html

10
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:32:56 PM »
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Null School Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
« on: March 13, 2019, 09:53:53 AM »
Thanks for this, Niall. It seems a spambot has copied that comment of yours and opened a new thread. Had me fooled. I'll try and merge the treads now.

edit: done

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Null School Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
« on: March 12, 2019, 10:00:25 PM »
I could not find a thread already open specifically for null school output. .

Here is the link to the old thread on this same topic : (Maybe mods could merge them ? )

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.0.html

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 10, 2019, 06:47:44 PM »
As many of you know the DMI moved all their Greenland data products to the Polar Portal website (http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/)

I emailed them about the missing accumulated SMB map and their reply was that it isn't as popular as the anomaly map and therefore unlikely to make it over to PolarPortal. I find it dissapointing, but to brighten up my day I found their monthly raw data is freely available for research purposes. (currently Jan 1980 to Aug 2017)

So I think I produce the accumulated SMB maps myself all the way back to 1980 and create some long term SMB graphs (whole year Sep-Aug) and only the melt season (Jun-Aug). Is there anything you would like to see that's possible to create with monthly surface mass balance data?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 08, 2019, 07:26:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2019:
     14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 26,964 km2 to reach a new max.

Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,100 k or so, not 27k?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2019, 04:41:57 PM »
The power of data visualisation,

i can't see how there is Arctic sea ice in 20 years.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: March 05, 2019, 10:22:45 PM »
It is time for the monthly update of my extrapolation when the extent [Extent], volume [Volumen] and thickness [Dicke] will reach zero. The extrapolation occured linearly and by a logarithmic function; the latter one almost constantly resulting in earlier times. February value now includes 2019.
As extent, volume and thickness in February 2019 lie above the long-term trend lines it is clear that the BOE for February will take place a few years later than calculated last February. All slopes decreased slightly.

Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 06:25:12 PM »
Thickness maps, compared with previous years and differences with those.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 06:04:49 PM »
Since there was none last month, hre is the animation of Jan-Feb 2019.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 12:52:46 PM »
Unfortunately the ftp server with the detailed thickness data has not been serving me for some time now. I will look into that..

That's a crying shame :(

Do you have any idea what the problem might be as yet?

Yes, they have moved to https :

old  ->  new
ftp://pscftp.apl.washington.edu/zhang/PIOMAS/data   ->
https://pscfiles.apl.uw.edu/zhang/PIOMAS/data


ftp is of course designed for automated computer data transfer, while https was designed for interactive browsing (with some incidentally downloading).

Looking at the required (wget) trickery to have the same level of automatisation as before.

20
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: March 04, 2019, 07:57:58 PM »
Oceans getting warmer is one thing, but heatwaves multiplying is somewhat more scary

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/04/heatwaves-sweeping-oceans-like-wildfires-scientists-reveal

Heatwaves sweeping oceans ‘like wildfires’, scientists reveal
Extreme temperatures destroy kelp, seagrass and corals – with alarming impacts for humanity

Quote
The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.

As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.

“You have heatwave-induced wildfires that take out huge areas of forest, but this is happening underwater as well,” said Dan Smale at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, UK, who led the research published in Nature Climate Change. “You see the kelp and seagrasses dying in front of you. Within weeks or months they are just gone, along hundreds of kilometres of coastline.”

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 02, 2019, 12:23:01 PM »
It is worth noting that as the Bering melts out, the Great Lakes are actually still icing. An Arctic outbreak should ensure that this continues for the next week or more. They are on the verge of cracking the top 3 recent years for early March (1979, 1994, and 2014  -- 2015 may be on the list as well?).

We need 86% to beat 1994 and approach 2014's record, it seems very doable given expected conditions.


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 Melting Season
« on: March 02, 2019, 12:11:43 AM »
We have had bigger rebounds recently, but not by much.  If today shows another drop that may be it.

The only place I can see actually changing that I'd the Barents, but there the ice is fighting the highest imported heat in our history.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2019, 03:16:04 PM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.

Because:

Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery

24
Arctic sea ice / The 2019 melting season
« on: March 01, 2019, 02:41:14 PM »
Neven still hasn't got around to opening this thread, but "Snow White" has (prematurely?) called the 2019 maximum over on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1101471926390870016

Here's the "JAXA" version. Discuss!

<edited title to match those of precious years; N.>

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2019, 10:03:49 PM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2019, 11:22:03 AM »
Thats because the periphery of the Arctic ocean is not ice-covered anymore and the edge of ice is now in the area where the solar radiation in March is very poor and the ice is still expading till the mid-March. In the 1980-s the edge was much further to the south and was already affected by solar radiation in the beginning of March.




Is it just my imagination, but it seems like the maximum used to be earlier in the year than it is now..... I am talking decade averages here.

To me, just eyeballing the graph, it looks like the 80s peaked around 3rd March.
90s peaked at about 10th March.
00s peaked about 10th March
10s then goes to 17th March and, maybe at a stretch, end of March.

If this is correct.... does anyone know why the end of the freeze is taking longer each decade?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2019, 05:50:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 06:44:45 PM »
Thanks to all that have tried and responded.

The positive feedbacks gives me confidence that I have nailed a big source of the incompatibility. In short: do not create mp4 files with an odd number of rows.

Cropping the image height from 695 to 694 gives the attached "big" animation:

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 01:13:57 PM »
I've taken the liberty of uploading it to YouTube (let me know if that's not okay with you, Wip):


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 12:46:27 PM »
Super cool, Wip!
The beating heart of Arctic Sea Ice!! Still alive!!!

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 09:32:16 AM »
While waiting for the lastest January data, here is an animation of the full range 1979-2018. Made possible by a recent inclusion of 1979-1999 daily thickness data.

Displayed are thickness data every 5th day to keep the file size relatively limited.

It is coded as an mp4 file, experimental for me, over 13meg in size, see it works for you.


32
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 03, 2019, 08:40:06 PM »
Australia Weather: Townsville Warned as Floodgates Open 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47100658

Quote
Officials in the Australian city of Townsville are deliberately flooding several neighbourhoods after record rainfall that has swollen a dam beyond capacity.

Residents in and around the north-eastern city have been warned of "risk to life" and "unprecedented flooding" that could inundate up to 20,000 homes.


People have been told to seek shelter on higher ground.

Townsville has received more than a metre (3.3ft) of rain in just a week.

That is more than 20 times the average for the time of year - beating the previous record set in 1998, in what became known as the Night of Noah.

...  The Townsville Bulletin newspaper said low-lying properties were being flooded, and troops on boats were searching for residents in need of help.

Cars and livestock have already been swept away around the coastal city in the state of Queensland.

https://twitter.com/madvoice/status/1092023384941027328



 Meanwhile, parts of southern Australia are in the grip of a severe drought.

January was the hottest month on record for Australia as a whole, with the southern city of Adelaide breaking its own records twice in the month, first reaching 47.7C and then 49.5C

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2019, 02:21:59 PM »
More data, SAT for January. Second lowest Arctic-wide for the last 15 years, all sectors down compared to last three years:


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2019, 02:14:25 PM »
January 21 - February 2.
The Atlantic strikes again, which is how it went from 10th to 4th.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: January 30, 2019, 07:20:01 PM »
Ignore the surface ships, subs own the Arctic ...

As The Arctic Warms, US Navy Considering Summer Transit, Bering Sea Port
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2019/01/arctic-warms-us-navy-considering-summer-transit-bering-sea-port/154018/



... The Arctic is heating up and changing twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Some anticipate that it could regularly be virtually ice-free in summer  by 2040. That reality, coupled with Russia’s aggressiveness, is forcing the Navy to look at its ability to operate in there with thawed eyes. “You’re seeing the discussion change dramatically,” said Spencer. “We had the Navy’s [Arctic] Roadmap. We are adjusting that…and there’s more to come.

The Navy is meeting its current requirements for Arctic ops, according to GAO reports, but Spencer said that it was time to look beyond those. He said the U.S. is exploring the possibility of opening a strategic port in the Bering Strait.

------------------------------

US Navy Plans To Send More Ships Into The Arctic As It Looks To Establish New Polar Port
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/25875/us-navy-plans-to-send-more-ships-into-the-arctic-as-it-looks-to-establish-new-polar-port

... “A strategic port up in the Bering [Sea] area is being explored, but that would be a whole-of-government approach: that would be Coast Guard, Navy and [Department of] Commerce in that regard,” Spencer explained. “But it’s an area we have to focus on, most definitely.”

... Though the Navy is well aware of the strategic importance of the Arctic, and has increasingly made it a priority issue, the service is up against a number of issues that might make it more difficult to expand its presence in the near-term. For one, it has no icebreakers and the U.S. government as a whole only owns two such ships.

.... But beyond the environmental hazards and limited infrastructure, many of the Navy’s non-ice-capable surface ships are not necessarily equipped to conduct protracted operations in extreme cold weather conditions, to begin with. The Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the first of which got laid down in 1980, was the last of its surface ship designs to feature a purpose-built steam de-icing system. This is apparently not a feature on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which form the core of the service’s combat surface fleets.

Ice buildup on weapon systems, radomes, antennas, and other features on the Navy’s ships could limit their functionality or even cause damage. Without specialized de-icing features, a crew might have to spend significant effort manually removing the ice without causing any additional harm. That's to say nothing of the need to clear flight decks and helicopter landing pads on carriers, amphibious ships, and other warships.



----------------------------------------

Navy May Deploy Surface Ships to Arctic This Summer as Shipping Lanes Open Up
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/08/navy-may-deploy-surface-ships-arctic-summer-shipping-lanes-open

... With three potential trans-Arctic routes potentially opening up, he said, the Navy’s discussion about Arctic presence has changed dramatically in the past two years.

“As an example, this summer, the [chief of naval operations] and I have talked about having some ships make the transit in the Arctic. It’s going to be a multi-service task – I think you’ll see the Coast Guard involved. We’re just fleshing it out right now. But what is the purpose of that? We have to learn what it’s like to operate in that environment,” he said.

Spencer said the Ticonderoga-class cruisers were the last class of Navy ships to be designed with steam systems to remove ice from the ship, and that newer classes are not ice-hardened or equipped with systems to remove ice.

When the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group operated north of the Arctic Circle for several weeks this fall, the carrier itself handled the environment well, but its smaller escort ships and the supply ships the carrier relied on had a tougher time in the high sea states and icy waters. Similarly, when the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group sailed from Iceland to Norway in October, the larger amphibious assault ship made the journey safely, but the smaller dock landing ship was damaged in heavy seas and had to turn back.

-----------------------------------

U.S. Warship Stuck in Montreal Since December Due to Ice Resumes Trip Home
https://saultonline.com/2018/03/u-s-warship-stuck-in-montreal-since-december-due-to-ice-resumes-trip-home/

MONTREAL — An American warship stuck in Montreal since Christmas Eve has finally resumed its trip to its home port in Florida, the U.S. Navy confirmed on Saturday.

The USS Little Rock was commissioned in Buffalo, N.Y., on Dec. 16 but was trapped by ice at the Port of Montreal less than two weeks into its maiden voyage.

The warship was equipped with temporary heaters and 16 de-icers designed to reduce ice accumulation on the hull, and the crew was provided with cold-weather clothing in light of the change to their winter plans.



------------------------------

Zukunft: Changing Arctic Could Lead to Armed U.S. Icebreakers in Future Fleet
https://news.usni.org/2017/05/18/zukunft-changing-arctic-environment-could-lead-to-more-armed-icebreakers-in-future-fleet

Adm. Paul Zukunft told the House Appropriations homeland security subcommittee today that three of each icebreakers was the shipbuilding requirement determined in a study five years ago and would still meet today’s requirements.

However, he noted that “ice has retreated at record rates” since then, which makes oil and gas reserves more accessible – which creates a particularly thorny problem for the United States, which would like to claim these resources for its own but hasn’t ratified the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention treaty that would validate this claim.

We have sovereign interests at stake up there as well. We have seen China, for example, with their icebreaker (in the region)... next thing we know we see a Chinese mobile offshore drilling unit going into the extended continental shelf to extract what otherwise would be U.S. oil.

----------------------------

Russia May Put Lasers on Its New Icebreaker Ships
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/news/a27447/russia-new-icebreaker-lasers/

Last April the Russian Navy ordered for two ships for Project 23550, the Ivan Papanin-class icebreakers. Construction of the first began last September at JSC Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. The two ships are designed to function as icebreakers, tugboats, and patrol vessels.

According to Janes, the two ships will displace about 8,500 tons, about the size of modern destroyers, but much of that weight is due to the reinforced hull needed by icebreakers to plow through thick sea ice. Dimensionally, the Papanin class will be only about the size of a frigate. The ships will carry one AK-176MA 3-inch multipurpose deck gun (76.2-millimeter), a Kamov Ka-27 search and rescue helicopter, and eight Kalibr anti-ship missiles or longer-range cruise missile variants. The ships will be powered by diesel electric engines mounted in azipods generating a combined horsepower of 9,160 horsepower, and will carry bow thrusters for precise maneuvering.

According to Russian state media Sputnik News, the Ivan Papanin ships could be outfitted with lasers in the near future. Later this year Russian engineers will test a 30-kilowatt laser on the icebreaker Dikson, with an eye toward eventually fielding a 200-kilowatt seagoing laser. The article claims the icebreaker will only use lasers for ice cutting, allowing the ships to get around the arctic faster.



----------------------------

Russia Designs Ice-Breaking Nuclear-Powered Submarine for Arctic Shelf Operations
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/01/russia-designs-ice-breaking-nuclear-powered-submarine-arctic-shelf-operations

A vessel that can both crush through the ice and dive beneath it when working on extraction of mineral resources from the Arctic seabed.

It is the design bureau Malachite, famous for developing several classes of Russian navy nuclear powered submarines, that has presented a new 82 meters long submarine with ice-breaking capabilities.

With its special bow and strengthened hull, the submarine is said to be able to navigate through 1,2 meter thick ice in surface position. The vessel will hold Arc5 ice-class according to Russian classification.

Malachite says on its site that the submarine is aimed at working safely beneath the ice without worrying about waves, wind or moving ice on the surface. Fields of operations include both oil and gas subsea installations as well as potential future extraction of other mineral resources to be mined from the Arctic sea floor.

Also Malachite’s Arctic submarine is designed to carry mini-submarines that could work independently from the mother-submarine.



--------------------------------

As the Ice Melts, Nuclear Submarines Train for Arctic War
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xw5b4d/icex-2018-arctic-war-training

... focusing on the GIUK Gap (the sea between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) may fall short of the challenge NATO now faces.

For much of the Cold War, the Soviet navy lacked land-attack cruise missiles and would have had to leave its "bastion" in the Barents Sea in order to engage NATO forces, which made the GIUK Gap an important choke point at that time, according to Steven Wills, a military historian and former US Navy surface-warfare officer.

But with the development of sub-launched missiles — especially the modern Kaliber cruise missile — "Today's Russian Navy can remain within its Barents bastion and still launch accurate attacks against ships in the Norwegian Sea and NATO land targets without leaving these protected waters,"

"The real 'Gap' where NATO must focus its deterrent action is the Greenland, Svalbard, North Cape line at the northern limit of the Norwegian and and Greenland Seas," he writes. "It is again time to consider deterrent action and potential naval warfare in the 'High North.'"

The US, Russia and China are stepping up their use of submarines, drones, sensors and other undersea military technology. This is making the security of assets such as undersea internet cables and coastal military facilities an area of growing concern.

-----------------------------------

The Arctic is Unforgiving ...

Too fast, Vasili. Too fast!

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/26178/dramatic-video-of-russian-tu-22m3-crash-landing-in-bad-weather-emerges

36
NOAA Posts Cartoon Which Appears to Challenge Trump’s Climate Change Skepticism   
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/noaa-responds-to-trumps-climate-change-skepticism-with-a-cartoon/

Quote
The day after President Trump posted a tweet suggesting that extreme cold temperatures in the Midwest cast doubt on the existence of global warming, the climate service for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tweeted a cartoon explaining that warming oceans result in more extreme winter weather.

Quote
Winter storms don't prove that global warming isn't happening. 
(link: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/are-record-snowstorms-proof-global-warming-isn%E2%80%99t-happening) climate.gov/news-features/…
 


 https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1090263390503596032 

elsewhere...

“World hunger isn’t real because I had breakfast this morning”

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c4fdf3de4b00906b26c9a2b/amp

37
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: January 16, 2019, 12:36:16 PM »
Record-breaking ocean temperatures point to trends of global warming
2018 continues record global ocean warming

An international team, released the 2018 ocean heat content observations in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on January 16, 2019. The newly available observations show that the year 2018 is the hottest year ever recorded for the global ocean, as evident in its highest ocean heat content since 1950s in the upper 2000m.

Compared to the average value that was measured 1981 - 2010, the 2018 ocean heat anomaly is approximately 19.67 x 1022 Joules, a unit measure for heat. This heat increase in 2018 relative to 2017 is ~388 times more than the total electricity generation by China in 2017, and ~ 100 million times more than the Hiroshima bomb of heat. The years 2017, 2015, 2016 and 2014 came in just after 2018 in order of decreasing ocean heat content. The values are based on an ocean temperature analysis product conducted by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at Chinese Academy of Sciences.

and more on:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-01/ioap-rbo011119.php

38
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 13, 2019, 09:24:53 PM »
There will also likely be an increase in biological activity on and in the ocean floor, both microbial and more complex life forms. These are of course hard to model, but could burrow into methane pockets, releasing the gas more quickly than a merely physical model would suggest is possible.

And then there are slopes. I large release at a crucial point along a slope could cause a kind of un-zippering effect, iirc.

I think we can't be complacent about these possibilities, but at the same time they all just mean that we have to double down on reducing our lion's share of the contribution in hopes that the optimists are right and that these more rapid release mechanisms don't end up coming into play, at least at current levels of warming.

39
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 09, 2019, 05:11:53 PM »
Further movement : dislocation of the main iceberg going on the east side, and rotation of the whole, opening the front to more open seas.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2019, 04:48:54 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)
Hi, Juan.

Computer & Mobile phone died.
Sticking plaster and soothing words applied.
Data rescue underway. (Amazingly, back-up system seems to have worked).

With luck back in action tomorrow.

What to do when this clapped out old laptop finally dies is a question I am avoiding.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2019, 03:00:26 PM »
Quote
We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!

+1

42
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: January 06, 2019, 11:19:14 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if some part of the deep ocean was still responding to a surface signal from hundreds of years ago. I seem to recall that it takes 1500 years to cycle the meridional overturning circulation, though perhaps that only applies to the Atlantic.
However, if that is indeed the case, this should also be supported by Argo data. I am susprised at the reliance on problematic data when accurate data should be available for a number of years. This is admittedly far from my area of expertise (if such even exists), so - what am I missing here?

43
During the current blast from the Arctic, Bay of Bothnia had wind speeds of category 1 hurricane equivalent. While not the first winter storm to do so, the record 10 min sustained speeds of wind is now 32,4m/s for the Finnish side of the bay. Gusts reached 40,2m/s, and hurricane-force limits also on coastal stations.
A gust of 41,6 m/s was recorded in Kökar, an island on Northern Baltic between Åland and Mainland Finland. This is among the fastest gusts measured here. Associated significant wave heights have also been the highest ever for Bothnian Bay, c.23,5 feet, top measured waveheights of near 11 meters have been observed

Update, the one fatality in Finland due the storm was after the storm, when a man clearing fallen trees had an accident with the tractor he used as help in claring the way. The three finnsh and one swedish person trekking out in Norway are still missing. And of course the same storm caused (at lest partially) the train accident in Denmark with 8 fatalities.

Update: the four ski-trekkers now presumed dead in an avalanche, two of them had some training to be wilderness guides.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 26, 2018, 10:33:26 AM »
JAXA SIE data for December 16 and 17 has been revised.
Aha!

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2018, 07:51:32 AM »
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

+1  :)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2018, 07:07:13 AM »
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

47
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: December 19, 2018, 03:13:29 PM »
I did an interview with prof. Peter Wadhams for a doc series I am working on about Lake Tanganyika and I am only using a few excerpts. He did find it strange that I wanted his input on the fate of Lake Tanganyika :) but the interview is of course mainly about the arctic.

Here's the full interview:


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid December update)
« on: December 19, 2018, 09:43:01 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs are updated (and uploaded). Attached.

No ice velocity data, so no updated Fram export graph.

Daily regional volume data uploaded:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz




49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid December update)
« on: December 19, 2018, 08:40:12 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has been updated, last date 15 December.
Calculated volume at 15 December was 13.07 [1000 km3], which is 6th lowest for the day.
Here is the animation.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 18, 2018, 12:12:41 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 11,820,858 km2(December 17, 2018)

Here is the analysis, even though I am still unsure about the 263k gain on 16 December. The 17 December image is complete, and appears to confirm the sudden gain in extent.

Remember that the ADS/NIPR extent figures are two-day averages. The spike occurred on the 16th,  affecting the 15-16 and 16-17 (reported as 16 and 17 th december data) equally. On the 18th the situation will return to normal (hopefully).

My no-average extent calculation from Jaxa SIC jumped a +1010k on the 16th.

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