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Messages - Oscillidous

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 11:06:02 AM »
Hot damn! HOT DAMN! Friv, where are you? We need your writer's talents, sir. Seems this one is quite a fitting occasion...

Friv emptied out his hyperbole bin with his latest post.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 03:57:26 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

No it doesn't
In detail,  to be informative, rather than just contradictory, it is currently predicting 3.95 M km^2.

This would place 2019 second. However even Slater must treat August values probabalisticly and extreme results always have a low probability even this close to the end of the season.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 05:11:41 PM »
This piece of last night's image extending from the Laptev bite toward the pole really disturbs me. It has that same fractal Mandelbrot-set-look it had the last time this open area expanded.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:53:36 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

Its comes down to merely a matter of the weather as to whether there is another record low ie a single storm is going to make the difference. There's that feeling of horrified fascination again. :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:19:30 PM »
I see a lot of predictions reassuring us that 2019 will not hit first place, but the melting momentum is built in june and early july, as remarked earlier most of July 2012 was average and had cloudy bouts. All the indicators are in the red, and we can now see edge melting picking up speed, with a three fronts assault, widening and deepening of the laptev bite, quick retreat of the ess, continuous slow retreat and worsening of concentration in the chuchki. It also looks like the atlantic will activate in a couple of weeks with lower export, and the channels that possibly won t see sustained loss of extent ie beaufort and greenland are participating in the thinning of the pack with the export. When comparing with other years, that edge melting was the trademark of the later season but didn t use to be as widespread as early, because this season as seen early melting of several landfast seas, so we will probably have a new record of melting through that method. Concerning the other mechanism of melt in the later season, which is destruction by storm, i share the concern of many that fiven the ssts and awp, we might mechanically have a very stormy august, so even if it doesn t rival the gac, it will get close. This is enough to run a course parallel to 2012 and maybe (like 50/50) be first. My own prediction is that either we will see extreme compaction towards the atlantic islands, and a pack broken in two through the pole with an atlantic side and pacific side, or that we will see half the pack disappear, from the caa cab crack to the laptev bite, leaving only a very small pack close to a boe. The first scenario depends on a halting of the fram export and continuous meltponding (through rain) on the cab, whilst the other one require a gac like storm, but we will see what happens

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 07, 2019, 10:56:03 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:27:34 AM »
More on this one:

The surface has a dirty blue tint (which i interpreted as rather thin ice

Meaning, if you use the "return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]" setting in Sentinel you will see liquid water on ice as bright blue and white ice as pink.

I think the dirty blue colour indicates thin/weak ice. I found further evidence for this claim today.

In this GIF you see a floe like that (which i think is a piece of fast ice originating in Kane Basin) decomposing just by being pushed around by currents.

I guess my question is,

is this dirty blue colour indicating wet/soaked ice,

or is it so thin that it's translucent and we see the ocean darkness through it?

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