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Messages - blumenkraft

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 08:14:14 PM »
It seems that the ice in the Arctic is in the worst condition. The scale of the melting is unique compared to past years. And soon a new stage of a sharp drop in the Extent will begin. NSDIC again registered a 100k+ loss today.

The chances that the extent will fall below 3 million km2 are increasing.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 07:16:10 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Don't forget to click the like button from time to time if you like these forecasts!

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: August 03, 2020, 06:19:11 PM »
"all one way" the distinction i make is that due to residual tangential energy in the Atl. waters by the time the peak of the tides move south the bulk of that [Atl.] water is elsewhere so is replaced by Arctic waters displaced by incoming Atl. waters. This is evidenced by the incoming holding fast to either the continent, the Barents shelf or the deeper parts of Barents, and equally by the water flowing south holding fast against Greenland due to it's deficit of tangential inertia. Looking further south the peak of the tide passing through the gap by the Faroes proceeds in the 'wrong' direction whilst the Atlantic continues it's ac rotation onto Baffin, i think that motion too is related to the residual inertia within the Atl. waters forcing them to the right.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 05:55:33 PM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like
It looks great.
G., can you perhaps make a table of each year's CAB sea ice area minimum? I think it would be interesting.
Attached
BUT it is not the CAB - Central Arctic BASIN per Wipneus - 4.432 million Km2,

It is for the NSIDC Central Arctic SEA CAS - 3.224 million km2.

& it was 2007 wot dunnit

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:02:25 PM »
Hwaet. We Gardena  in geardagum
theodcyninga   thrym gefrunon
hu tha athelingas     ellen fremedon


This is English from about a thousand years ago (first lines of Beowulf), yet it is unintelligible to modern speakers unless they have made a special study of it (and this is with modernizing the script!).

So yeah, there's a lot of problems with trying to communicate with future generations just 1000 years out, let alone tens of or hundreds of thousands.

::::::::::::

This part from kassy's article struck me as rather...ironic

Quote
The initiative came up with a number of suggestions as how to help humans in the future make informed decisions, such as libraries, time capsules and physical markers

Human during our lifetimes have made multiple of what might be called the least well 'informed decisions' in the history of the planet. Deciding to trash the planet by leaving nuclear waste all over it being not the least of these ill informed decisions.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:45:37 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5852 − 6204) / 7  =  −50
14-day average: (5852 − 6710) / 14  =  −61

2020-07-19  6.710
2020-07-20  6.600  −110
2020-07-21  6.475  −125
2020-07-22  6.330  −145
2020-07-23  6.301    −29
2020-07-24  6.311    +10
2020-07-25  6.246    −65
2020-07-26  6.204    −42
2020-07-27  6.130    −74
2020-07-28  6.221    +91
2020-07-29  6.090  −131
2020-07-30  6.069    −21
2020-07-31  6.036    −33
2020-08-01  5.976    −60
2020-08-02  5.852  −124

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:36:24 PM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:30:09 PM »
North of Greenland, change from July 24th to August 2nd.
Higher-res version on here: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1290278384564465667

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:25:08 PM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from August 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From August 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement of -108,100 (-111,187 as of Aug 2) km2 is the 4th lowest value, of which 2018 is the leader. (See attachment 2).
These numbers will vary depending on the date of 2020s minimum, with extra days decreasing this average.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:22:20 PM »
My take on the loss of ice north of Greenland is tidally forced Atl. entering by Svalbard enhancing the existing current towards Nares of the same waters but pushing more forcefully along the shelf creating turbulence/vortices which overspill onto the shelf. Not all of it makes it through to the Canadian side but may force it's way through in the two or three days left of peak tidal movement, after that the rotating ice should close the gap. Similarly the lighter fraction of Atl. waters is creating more turbulence along Barents shelf as it pushes east causing more melt/retreat there.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:21:34 PM »
Sorry I don't have the mean to fully exploit the dataset for MERRA reanalysis, but as an illustration. For June, net surface shortwave (~ solar) flux was high, but not as high as in 2019. Last year was quite extraordianry from this point of view. The first map is for 2020, the second is for 2019 and the third is the difference, 2020 minus 2019. We will see what did happened in July (MERRA data are available around the 20th for the preceding month).

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:17:19 PM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation --- Sorry for the delays and missed posts. Sometimes life gets in the way of ice. Numbers updated through August 2nd instead of July 31st.

As of August 2nd, extent is 5,669,846 km2. With on average 42 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -111,187 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss so far this season is -8,777,795 km2. This has resulted in the current season average daily drop of -57,749 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 4th fastest average daily loss from maximum to July 31st (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2). ~numbers slightly off here in order to work with the late posting.

Total extent loss from maximum to July 31st is highest on record in the post-2007 era.. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of July, 2020 lost -3,162,434 km2, averaging -102,014 km2 per day. This is the largest loss since in the post-2007 era. (See Attachment 4).

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:35:25 AM »
Well, even those numbers depend on how they register COVID deaths; If I have covid and die because of cardiac arrest; Is that counted as a COVID death? And did I die because of COVID? I could have had the cardiac arrest even if I didn't have COVID; Or not.

Or if I lose my job because of COVID and I can't afford health care anymore and die because of a cardiac arrest, but don't have COVID, is that a COVID death or not?

So even those statistics are multi interpretable, unfortunately;

Global Warming is much easier to prove I'd say and harder/weirder to deny I'd say...

14
As a follow-on to my last post:

The first image shows the relationship between the ENSO cycle and the surface elevation of the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea Sector; clearly increasing that these ice shelves float up on El Nino events and down on La Nina events; which causes flexure and cracking of the ice shelves (which weakens them and makes them more susceptible to the influence of warm CDW).

The second image shows how during the combination of an El Nino event and a positive SAM event tropical heat energy is advected from the Tropical Pacific directly to the coastal West Antarctica; where it can episodically accelerate local ice mass loss (along the coastal areas).

The third image shows how the Amundsen Bellingshausen Sea Low, ABSL (or ASL), can direct winds directly into the ASE, which also drags along ocean currents that advect more warm CDW into the ASE which accelerates local ice mass loss.

The fourth image shows the average potential temperature of the warm CDW (above freezing) typically being advected into the ASE, and the associate marine glacier ice flow velocities (because of the reduced buttressing from the degrading ice shelves and the retreating grounding lines).  Also, I note that relatively rapid ice flow velocities cause internal friction within the ice of the marine glaciers, which induces more basal meltwater beneath the marine glaciers (which further destabilize the marine glaciers).

The first linked reference concludes with regard to the Amundsen Sea Region, ASR, that:

"In contrast, the El Niño–ASR teleconnection in austral summer, which more closely resembles the Southern Annular Mode, is found to increase linearly for El Niño amplitudes up to 3 K."

As austral summer is also when surface ice melting occurs in the Amundsen Sea Region, and as El Nino events push warm CDW into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE, we should be very concerned about the impacts of coming Super El Nino events on marine glaciers in the ASE.

Yu Yeung Scott Yiu and Amanda C. Maycock (2020 Apr), "The linearity of the El Niño teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea region", Q J R Meteorol Soc.; 146, (728), 1169–1183, doi: 10.1002/qj.3731

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3731

Abstract: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives interannual variability in West Antarctic climate through altering atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen Sea region (ASR). The El Niño–ASR teleconnection is known to be strongest in austral winter and spring, but its variation with El Niño amplitude is underexplored. This study uses experiments from the HadGEM3‐A climate model to investigate the El Niño–ASR teleconnection for a range of imposed SST perturbations spanning weak (0.75 K) to strong (3 K) amplitudes. In austral winter, the El Niño–ASR teleconnection behaves linearly for El Niño amplitudes up to 2.25 K, but is found to weaken for stronger forcing (3 K). The anomalous Rossby wave source in the subtropical South Pacific increases monotonically with El Niño amplitude. However, a Rossby wave reflection surface originally located in the western South Pacific sector extends progressively eastward with increasing El Niño amplitude, reducing wave propagation into the ASR. The wave reflection surface is associated with curvature in the upper tropospheric zonal winds which intensifies as the subtropical jet strengthens under El Niño forcing. In contrast, the El Niño–ASR teleconnection in austral summer, which more closely resembles the Southern Annular Mode, is found to increase linearly for El Niño amplitudes up to 3 K. The results explicitly demonstrate that a linear approximation of the El Niño teleconnection to the ASR is reasonable based on the range of El Niño amplitudes observed in recent history.

See also:

Dätwyler, C., Grosjean, M., Steiger, N. J., and Neukom, R.: Teleconnections and relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in reconstructions and models over the past millennium, Clim. Past, 16, 743–756, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-743-2020, 2020.

https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/743/2020/

Abstract
The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is strongly influenced by variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Because of the limited length of instrumental records in most parts of the SH, very little is known about the relationship between these two key modes of variability over time. Using proxy-based reconstructions and last-millennium climate model simulations, we find that ENSO and SAM indices are mostly negatively correlated over the past millennium. Pseudo-proxy experiments indicate that currently available proxy records are able to reliably capture ENSO–SAM relationships back to at least 1600 CE. Palaeoclimate reconstructions show mostly negative correlations back to about 1400 CE. An ensemble of last-millennium climate model simulations confirms this negative correlation, showing a stable correlation of approximately −0.3. Despite this generally negative relationship we do find intermittent periods of positive ENSO–SAM correlations in individual model simulations and in the palaeoclimate reconstructions. We do not find evidence that these relationship fluctuations are caused by exogenous forcing nor by a consistent climate pattern. However, we do find evidence that strong negative correlations are associated with strong positive (negative) anomalies in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Amundsen Sea Low during periods when SAM and ENSO indices are of opposite (equal) sign.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:41:10 AM »
The information about the Milne ice shelf collapse was released today, and came from the ECCC Canadian Ice Service.

It is relevant to this melting season. 

If you want to start another thread about the historical properties of the ice shelf, that is good too! But, the current information should be left here as an important part of this melt season.

16
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:34:12 AM »
Neven's policy has always been to avoid links to denier sites from the ASIF, both so as not to lead the readers astray, and more importantly to avoid giving the deniers financial gain by increasing clicks and search engine placements.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:40:27 AM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.
This is today.  There is a lot going on.  Interesting swirls in the open areas extending north from Greenland.  Then there's the interesting feature in the lower right, and the subsequent waves propagating northward.  After seeing this gif from blumenkraft.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg277039.html#msg277039
I get the feeling the "plunger" action of the tide moving north through the Nares sends a wave that gets trapped along the coast due to coriolis. It's then forced upwards due to bathymetry, creating the swirl, with some of the wave reflect back, but much of it continuing poleward.
There is a lot of "sloshing" in the Lincoln Sea area.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

That's amazing and even more so  that the huge chunks of land fast ice have broken off from gis.

Historically those are between 6-15M thick.

Sometimes upwards of 30M thick.

They will likely never reform because the ice that replaces it will  be to thin to withstand  breaking off for many seasons.

The most immediate impact I would think besides possibly Coastal erosion will be the crack in the future along the land in the southern basin will be wide enough that warmer water will probably form there and help eat away at the thickest ice every summer.


Although this summer has seen more southerly winds coming out of the CAA in Greenland then I can remember since at least 2007

Your comment made me look a little closer friv. That was actually a floating ice tongue of the Milne? glacier. It was more like 100m thick (in the 80s) and was the second largest ice Shelf in the attic. So that’s actually a pretty substantial iceberg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milne_Ice_Shelf

https://wirl.carleton.ca/research/ice/ice-shelves/milne-ice-shelf/

https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2013/08/09/eye-on-the-arctic-understanding-the-milne-ice-shelf/

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011JF002074

Edit the shelf was thinner but still pretty thick and held back a epishelf lake. Which I had to read up on. Also the scientists camp and instruments were destroyed but luckily they were not there.

Oren you may want to move this?

18
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:17:17 AM »
If there is ever a place to post anything (barring the illegal) it should be here on the OTOT thread.

What was the actual conspiracy site? Was the content so bad we needed to be protected? The paper is pretty interesting but i have no idea how any conspiracy site would spin that and i am sort of curious. I think i would survive reading some conspiracy take on it and if there was some clear BS in it i would comment on that but now i can´t.

This annoys me more then whatever the conspiracy site can come up with.

People are responsible for what they post. I think it is ok to add reminders that the quoted site is 100% Koch funded if that is the case or whatever applies but i prefer to make my own judgements.



nanning should find this funny ! b.c.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 01:35:53 AM »
amsr2-uhh for 2012 is available from aug1. I tried hard to replicate this comparison of 2020 with 2012 but A-Team's is better. Passing it on unmodified.
Green is open water for both years
Orange, open water in 2020
Pink, open water in 2012.
pixel count overlayed onto greenland
click to run

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:37:38 AM »
overlay of amsr2-uhh on to mercator(model) 0m ocean temperature. jul1-aug1. (9.5MB)

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
Dr John Campbell has looked at peer reviewed research papers and Obesity is the highest risk factor for hospitalization with Covid-19 and deaths, followed by heart disease and diabetes. As western countries have higher rates for these three Comorbidities, the UK and USA has 30% and 40% Obesity

Higher diabetes rates and Obesity compared to Japan and South Korea/Asia. Factor in the UK and USA governments are more bothered about the Economy than saving lives in the Pandemic, opening bars and restaurants too soon. The smaller Democratic Socialist countries,Norway/Switzerland/Austria/Denmark/Iceland/New Zealand etc have handled the Pandemic far better.   


22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:47:53 PM »
It's pretty clear to me that the media has actually vastly underplayed the severity of the virus.

What I haven't seen much of in the MSM (to the extent that I view it) are endless 'up close and personal' stories about victims of the disease, the suffering of their relatives...

Instead it has mostly been about the numbers and the experts and politics.

It is emotional personal stories that moves people to both care about the individual outcome as well as the larger issue, and that would prompt people to take the necessary precautions, whatever the policy makers end up doing. So while I lay the lion's share of blame for the disastrous US non-response to covid-19 at the feet of Trump and his hapless minions, I see the media as also partly to blame.

There are about 1000 stories of deaths a day they could cover, and many others of near deaths, etc. So it's not like there's a lack of freakin' material for them to work with. And they know full well what stories are most effective at changing hearts as well as minds...

23
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:36:21 PM »
Fully agree Blum. The final straw is Trump wanting to “postpone” the election AND questioning the integrity of the electoral process which may lead to all sorts of mayhem should he lose. Is Trump going to concede a loss in November? How about his supporters? Trump truly ticks lot of boxes on the fascist inquiry.

Even more worryingly, fascism is also gaining ground on other major nations. Putin’s Russia and Erdogan’s Turkey tick every single box. India is not far behind. Neither is Brazil. In the EU we have Hungary and Poland & many large populist/fascist parties in other member states.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:32:16 PM »
I'm curious. If I say that I believe that the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is at the most 0.2%, unless there are factors like pollution and low population health at play, does that make me a 'virus denier'?

Probably not, and you wouldn't get an argument against it because it is true.

However, if you ignore that vulnerable population can easily have 2%-3% IFR, if you pretend like hospitals do not get overwhelmed or that the IFR can't hit 1% under many circumstances or that there is no risk and C19 is just a media spectacle to control our thoughts, then you are a risk denier.

25
I tried doing a height estimation on the front once before, but I forget where I obtained the sun angle at the time the image was taken.  The answer I got (80 meters) was pretty reasonable.  I'd be interested in trying it again, since I think the longest shadows are right at where I think the glacier is thickest.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 09:11:01 PM »
It's nice to see several people are taking note of what's going above Greenland/the Lincoln Sea. This entire region just continues to surprise and I wish I understood more of the dynamics which facilitated such a vast separation plus an ever-widening crack.
This is today.  There is a lot going on.  Interesting swirls in the open areas extending north from Greenland.  Then there's the interesting feature in the lower right, and the subsequent waves propagating northward.  After seeing this gif from blumenkraft.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg277039.html#msg277039
I get the feeling the "plunger" action of the tide moving north through the Nares sends a wave that gets trapped along the coast due to coriolis. It's then forced upwards due to bathymetry, creating the swirl, with some of the wave reflect back, but much of it continuing poleward.
There is a lot of "sloshing" in the Lincoln Sea area.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:49:07 PM »
COVID-19 Hospital Data Is a Hot Mess After WH HHS Takes Control
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/covid-19-hospital-data-is-a-hot-mess-after-feds-take-control/

With weird discrepancies and fluctuations, COVID trackers say the data is less useful.

As COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US approach the highest levels seen in the pandemic so far, national efforts to track patients and hospital resources remain in shambles after the federal government abruptly seized control of data collection earlier this month.

For some hospitals, that data has to be harvested from various sources, such as electronic medical records, lab reports, pharmacy data, and administrative sources. The task has been particularly onerous for small, rural hospitals and hospitals that are already strained by a crush of COVID-19 patients.

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/quick-pivot-new-hhs-covid-19-reporting-rules-meant-chaos-hospitals

... Amid all the administrative and technical hurdles, the national data on hospitalizations has become a hot mess. The COVID Tracking Project—which collects data on a variety of COVID-19 pandemic metrics—wrote in a blog post July 28 that US hospitalization data is no longer reliable.

https://covidtracking.com/blog/whats-going-on-with-covid-19-hospitalization-data

The blog noted that between July 20 and July 26, federal totals of currently hospitalized patients has been, on average, 24-percent higher than the totals reported by states. On a state-by-state level, some states are reporting fewer cases than the HHS, some are reporting more, and some federal data has significant day-to-day fluctuations not seen before the reporting transition.

In a July 30 update, the tracking project noted the continued problems, concluding: “Taken together, the gaps and uncertainties in the previously stable hospitalization data mean that this crucial indicator has become much less useful for understanding the true severity of COVID-19 outbreaks."

https://covidtracking.com/blog/cases-declining-deaths-rising-hospital-data-remains-a-question-mark

----------------------------------

COVID-19 Hospital Data System That Bypasses CDC Plagued By Delays, Inaccuracies
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/31/897429054/covid-19-hospital-data-system-that-bypasses-cdc-plagued-by-delays-inaccuracies

Earlier this month, when the Trump administration told hospitals to send crucial data about coronavirus cases and intensive care capacity to a new online system, it promised the change would be worth it. The data would be more complete and transparent and an improvement over the old platform run by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, administration officials said.

Instead, the public data hub created under the new system is updated erratically and is rife with inconsistencies and errors, data analysts say.

... The data now available to the public appears to be neither faster nor more complete.

When HHS took over the collection and reporting of this hospital capacity data, it promised to update "multiple times each day." Later, the agency walked that back to say it would be updated daily.

Those daily updates have yet to materialize. On Thursday, an HHS spokesperson told NPR via email, "We will be updating the site to make it clear that the estimates are only updated weekly."


The HHS Protect Public Data Hub, the public-facing website set up by HHS, offers three items as a "Hospital Utilization Snapshot," all of which have data that is over a week old

- A "Downloadable Dataset" estimating how many hospital beds are occupied by state — last updated on July 21.

- A table tallying the total number of hospital beds occupied across the country, which has not been updated since July 23.

- A map showing the percent of hospital beds occupied by state, which has not been updated since July 23.

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity

The only information about hospital capacity that appears to be updated regularly on the HHS Protect site is the percentage of hospitals that have submitted data in the past seven days.

But, the tallies do not include certain categories of hospitals, including rehabilitation or veterans' hospitals, which have suffered COVID-19 outbreaks. These rehabilitation and veterans' hospitals had previously been included in the data reported by CDC, says the official, who spoke to NPR on background because they were not authorized to speak on the record.

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/covid19-module

Anomalies

After the data reporting switch, unusual numbers started cropping up in data that show how many hospital beds are filled in a given state, data analysts say. In some states, the bed occupancy rates soared, even though the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients dropped or only increased modestly.

Take, for example, Arizona. Under the old system, in data last collected by CDC on July 14, an estimated 3,205 COVID-19 patients in Arizona occupied 24% of the state's inpatient hospital beds. After the switch to the new HHS reporting system, an analogous dataset posted by HHS showed 82 fewer COVID-19 patients hospitalized, but the bed occupancy rate had jumped to 42%. It's unclear how fewer patients could be occupying more hospital capacity.

There are similar anomalies in the data for other states, including Georgia and New Mexico.

In Colorado, the hospitalization data maintained by HHS conflicts with the state's data posted to a daily dashboard. As of July 30, the state dashboard lists 341 patients hospitalized in Colorado with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 cases. A dataset maintained by the HHS, updated on July 30, lists 491 patients in Colorado.

... Members of The COVID Tracking Project from The Atlantic describe the hospital capacity data as being "highly erratic in recent weeks," and noted that data has been missing or incomplete from many states, including California, Texas, South Carolina, Idaho, Missouri and Wyoming, because of complications related to switching reporting systems.

The organizers of the tracking website COVID Exit Strategy initially found the data provided by HHS Protect to be unusable. "It had some states like Rhode Island having an inpatient bed utilization of above 100%," says site co-founder Ryan Panchadsaram. "And Rhode Island is a state where hospitalizations are quite low for COVID."

---------------------------------

A Federal Data Failure Is Making It Hard to Talk About COVID
https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/07/federal-data-failure-making-it-hard-talk-about-covid/166988/

Without a standard, trusted language of COVID data collection, it’s been hard to measure the disease, track its trend, and build effective policy.

When it comes to the language of COVID, the United States stands in sharp contrast with the rest of the world. The Germans have their Robert Koch Institute—the country’s version of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—and its reports are a model of clarity and precision and political neutrality in nailing down the problem.

In the United Kingdom, there’s an up-to-the-minute dashboard of cases, hospitalizations, and the death rate, with the data broken down by region. Australia, likewise, has an easy-to-read “BeCovidSafe” dashboard that tracks the virus. In Canada, there’s a handy outbreak update. Japan has its COVID tracker powered by data from the prefectural governments, and Korea’s website builds on data from the country’s Central Disease Control Headquarters. In all these cases, the building blocks of data come from the government, and they drive the public debate.

In the United States, by contrast, the COVID language problem has been muddled from the beginning. The New York Times is reporting daily trends and hot spots based on data from county governments. For the Washington Post, data comes from the paper’s reporters and from the notable Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard, whose numbers in turn are compiled from a vast array of local and state public health departments. Then, of course, there’s the University of Washington COVID model, which builds on the Johns Hopkins Github, and the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which has its own methodology.

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:29:33 PM »
To be honest, this thread has been a good source of information, and the debates in it helped me by pointing me towards different sources and different points of view.

Absolutely.  The content of this thread, and contributions by the impressive readership here, has been far more educational, useful, and valuable than any other single source I've seen.  This is true for arctic matters, climate matters, and Covid matters.

Bringing material from an anonymous website here is like bringing brown coal to Newcastle.

29
I am less pessimistic than someone like AbruptSLR, I think the timeline is more like 100 years before we really see massive ice sheet instabilities.

But again I trying to see which glacier will go first.
One vote for Jakobshavn it is.

While Jakobshavn is already undergoing ice cliff failures and may very well undergo and temporary acceleration of ice cliff failures once the grounding line / calving front reaches the retrograde bed slope, but once that bed slope changes to a prograde slope then the temporary acceleration will stop and the ice cliff failures will slowdown to something like their current rate of calving.  Thus, if you are asking which glacier will be the first to lead to a collapse of a ice sheet, then the only marine glacier that is reasonable to cite is the Thwaites Glacier.

To me, it is more productive to discuss the validity of the reasons that I have previously cited (& for which I have previously provided references) as to why Thwaites Glacier has a good probability of triggering a MICI-type of collapse of the WAIS before 2045.  While it is not possible to cite one specific scenario I am slowly preparing a summary, but here I cite a few key points.

A freshwater hosing event (like the temporary collapse of Jakobshavn's calving front and/or as short-term reversal of the Beaufort Gyre) say between 2025 and 2035, could slow the MOC sufficiently to trigger a Super El Nino  say by 2035 to 2040 that would cause both a sufficient perturbation of both CDW pulse into the ASE and surface ice melting to trigger an ice cliff front at the base of the current Thwaites Ice Tongue in the bed trough leading to the BSB.

See also:

Title: "NASA Space Laser Missions Map 16 Years of Ice Sheet Loss"

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/nasa-space-laser-missions-map-16-years-of-ice-sheet-loss

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:46:19 PM »
Who knows, Extent region with red and yellow is more or less than the 2012 minimum?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:29:49 PM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2020, 03:36:27 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

7-day average:  (5976 − 6246) / 7  =  −39
14-day average: (5976 − 6789) / 14  =  −58

2020-07-18  6.789
2020-07-19  6.710    −79
2020-07-20  6.600  −110
2020-07-21  6.475  −125
2020-07-22  6.330  −145
2020-07-23  6.301    −29
2020-07-24  6.311    +10
2020-07-25  6.246    −65
2020-07-26  6.204    −42
2020-07-27  6.130    −74
2020-07-28  6.221    +91
2020-07-29  6.090  −131
2020-07-30  6.069    −21
2020-07-31  6.036    −33
2020-08-01  5.976    −60

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 12:35:09 PM »
This review of the long term effects of Covid 19, just published in Science, should give those at the herd immunity end of the spectrum some pause for thought:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

“Although scientists hope they’ll learn how to avert chronic symptoms and help patients currently suffering, this latest chapter in the COVID-19 chronicle has been sobering. The message many researchers want to impart: Don’t underestimate the force of this virus. “Even if the story comes out a little scary, we need a bit of that right now,” Iwasaki says, because the world needs to know how high the stakes are. “Once the disease is established, it’s really hard to go backward.”

With the global number of infections approaching 20m, many more cases out there in the Community and strong signals of a resurgence in many parts of the world - Europe, Australia, Japan... - the long term impact of post-Covid chronic illness could rapidly become a significant medical and economic burden should a vaccine not emerge from the current plethora of clinical trials.


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:48:56 AM »
Yakutia Superfires 2nd July 2020 at 500km and 50km resolutions beat even the Amazon fires.  :-[

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:44:57 AM »
Animation of the development of low concentration ice and open water north of Greenland. amsr2-uhh, jul27-aug1

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 02, 2020, 10:48:00 AM »
I'd guess a contributing factor would be that it's in the path of the river discharge so any cold ice keels would be bathed in easy to freeze fresh water.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 



For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.



38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 09:51:08 PM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

(Edit: Removed the video - didn't realise it was autoplaying. Here's a link instead:https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289672698361257984)

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:55:08 PM »
I don't know, but I cannot see a single region of the Arctic that isn't screaming at this point.

If we were at the end, or even half of August, I would relax and hope for an early refreeze.
Instead it's August 1st and I can't help but worrying.
The "spread" caused by the recent storm and the relative quiet it brought feel ominous. IMHO.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:47:19 PM »
So what happens next?
weatherdude will post something that proves this year is no big deal  ;)

42
Glaciers / Re: Vavilov Ice Cap - Severnaya Zemlya
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:35:33 PM »
July 31 vs. July 26. You can see the white part of the cap shrink and the next layer get darker in just five days, in addition to the new outflow.


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: August 01, 2020, 03:46:20 PM »
One of the gifs is big the other huge gone, just to illustrate the tidal surge into Barentz and the almost coincidental suction in the Greenland sea.
added a link to the big gif  a link to where you can either look at the current state of tides or make your own gif the large one is only three days! What these show is surface height above geoid.

44
I’m just wondering what others think. Catastrophic is defined as ice cliff failures allowing the glacier to recede at an accelerating pace.
The climate record says this has happened in the past.
Please also post your reason for naming the glacier. Has it sped up? Bed slopes down inland? What is your timeframe?
Greenland glaciers are also allowable.


Post your response here.

45
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: August 01, 2020, 02:50:15 PM »
Tidal gif and another,
Kassy  "The Arctic Ocean Surface Currents Analysis and Forecast system uses the HYCOM model at 3 km resolution forced with tides at its lateral boundaries, surface winds sea level pressure from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). HYCOM runs daily providing 10 days forecast. The output variables are the surface currents and sea surface heights, provided at 15 minutes frequency, which therefore include mesoscale signals (though without data assimilation so far), tides and storm surge signals."
I've put these both up on tides for now I'll take out the giant and leave a link later

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 01, 2020, 02:00:20 PM »
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/swiss-policy-research/

"
Swiss Policy Research is also providing information regarding the Coronavirus with mixed facts and misinformation. In this article, Facts about Covid-19, there is the use of several poor sources to support their claims such as the Daily Mail, Off-Guardian, Sputnik, and Youtube videos. Further, this list of so-called facts also contains unproven conspiracy theories such as this: “NSA wholesaler Edward Snowden warns that the “coronavirus crisis” will be used for the massive and continuous expansion of global surveillance. The well-known virologist Pablo Goldschmidt speaks of “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures.” Leading British virologist, Professor John Oxford, talks about a “media epidemic.” They further state “More than 500 scientists have warned of “unprecedented public oversight” using problematic “contact tracking” applications. In some countries, such “contact tracking” is already carried out directly by secret services. In several parts of the world, the population is already monitored by drones and is facing excessive police supervision.” While any of these may one day turn out to be true, there is zero evidence at this time to support these claims and hence they are unproven conspiracy theories.

The website also promotes other unproven conspiracy theories such as the majority of the USA media being controlled by The Council on Foreign Relations, the Bilderbergs, and the Trilateral Commission. While there is no question there is a corporate monopoly in USA media ownership, there isn’t evidence to support their claims. This story again uses Wikipedia as a source, which they have discredited numerous times. In general, this is a conspiracy website that is not credible due to poor sourcing and lack of transparency.

Overall, we rate Swiss Policy Research (SPR) a Moderate Conspiracy website based on the promotion of unproven claims. We also rate them Mixed for factual reporting due to the use of poor sources and complete lack of transparency. (M. Huitsing 5/21/2020)"

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:49:54 PM »
There's been persistent downsloping winds north of Greenland.  Looks to me like a fair amount of rifting going on here, in addition to the warm breeze flowing northward.
Contrast boosted.  Click to run.

48
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:20:51 PM »
Lots ongoing in the Sakha Republic, Russia

(Click to highlight)


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:29:50 AM »
One week's stall in daily extent losses has reduced the 365 day daily losses. At the current rate it would be Feb 2021.

I make no predictions, whereupon I make one. This year could end up a washout or havoc could be unleashed on the ice, or it could be just average from now on..

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2020, 11:12:01 AM »
Arctic sea ice extent has been lowest in the satellite record for the entire month of July.

The monthly average extent for July shows this well. Average extent at 7.01 million is 383k, or nearly 5 years annual trend reduction, below the linear trend, and 364k below 2019.

Note that 2019 was also a record low July monthly average, 74k below the previous record low year of 2011, and 112k below 2012. 
_______________________________________________
2012 is already for some months a footnote in history.

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