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Messages - blumenkraft

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1
An example of extremely bad journalism (IMHO!), in an organ of News Corp down under. Normally you'd have to pay to read (and comment on) this garbage, but thanks to the great god Google:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:_5Z5hto1lSYJ:https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/ship-of-fools-6-global-warmists-rescued-from-icebound-ship/news-story/4c2c99d47230dff226cdb035f61d36fd+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Quote
Yet another ship of fools:

Arctic tours ship MS MALMO with 16 passengers on board got stuck in ice on Sep 3 off Longyearbyen, Svalbard Archipelago, halfway between Norway and North Pole. The ship is on Arctic tour with Climate Change documentary film team, and tourists, concerned with Climate Change and melting Arctic ice. All 16 Climate Change warriors were evacuated by helicopter.

Rescued by helicopter? But what about all the emissions?

Zero "due diligence", apart from all the other failings! For further information please see:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/ship-of-fools-iii-escapes-arctic-sea-ice/

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:36:08 AM »
Filling in for Mr. Juan Garcia :)

September 15, 2019:
4,006,036 = A decrease of -19,682 km2.

Passed 2016's minimum of 4,017,264 km2

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:35:06 AM »
September 15th, 2019:
     4,006,036 km2, a drop of 19,682 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.


4
The question of climate tipping points, and cascades of climate tipping points is a complex matter, so I provide a link to the following Grist article on this topic, not because it is comprehensive (which it is not), but because it provides thoughtful color commentary on this somewhat emotional topic:

Title: "Will I be able to tell when we’ve reached a climate tipping point?"

https://grist.org/article/will-i-be-able-to-tell-when-weve-reached-a-climate-tipping-point/

Extract: "“All we can say, as loud as we can, is that every half degree matters, but especially regarding stability of polar ice sheets,” Cobb explains."

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 02:22:14 AM »
Hi everyone:

We are celebrating the Independence of México, so I will not be posting today.
Having fun with friends.  :)

If someone else makes the post. Thanks!

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

6
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:46:09 PM »

Last year next week came in at around 405.4 ppm, the lowest value in its annual cycle. It will be challenging again this year to keep the increase below 3 ppm; an increase of 3.3-3.5 seems to be more likely, unfortunately.
My Sunday evening posting job - - - There are the actual values:
Week beginning on September 8, 2019:     408.59 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                     405.31 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             384.69 ppm
Last updated: September 15, 2019

The annual increase remains persistently above 3 ppm.

Last year next week was a bit higher than this week. With a further small and slow decline in the next days we will (hopefully) see an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:12:25 PM »
Hi weatherdude88,

I can't wait to hear your verification summary from this July prediction:

Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating).

The regions that will matter at the end of the 2019 melt season are the Central Arctic Basin, East Siberian sea, Beautfort sea, Greenland sea, and Canadian Archipelago.

For the most part, we are lagging the highest melt years in these regions (There are 5 years that lead 2019 in all these areas combined).

There is too much high latitude ice in the critical regions. All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it.

By the end of the first week of August, it will become evident that 2019 will be ordinary, as it relates to sea ice minimums over the last decade.









8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:33:04 PM »
Since the current polar blocking of warm air is causing the prevailing anticyclone to compact the ice pack, I bring the evolution of this strong HP from today till Sep 20 according to ECMWF.

Probably 2019 will beat the 2016 minimum but I don’t think this should last more than two days as winds lose strength past these two days, the orientation becomes less optimal for compacting, and it must become frigging cold in the ESS-Laptev edge.
But I was wrong one week ago, I must be right one of these weeks  ;D  ;D
PS. I post animations once a week or so lately
Edit. GFS 2m Temperatures during the same period

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:04:35 PM »
NSIDC 5 day Extent

Daily total still 70k above 2016 minimum, but estimate of Sept monthly average now 80k below 2016 Sept average.

Plume of projections shows 2018 as the outlier for very low extent increases during the next month.

10
The forum / Re: GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:17:02 PM »
In an effort to be constructive for once, I collect elsewhere what seems to be the common demands, perhaps somebody with authority can put them in tables:

- If one can go all the way to post the animation on YouTube, seems the best option. Size UNLIMITED for the main thread.
- If you are with mp4, the jump to YT seems easy (upload it to your channel there; the embedding  here is just writing the YT video url and works like a charm)
- If you are with gif, or stuck with mp4, don’t post over 1.5MB in the main thread, (or make the gif bigger than 700x pixels).
- Post on the main thread mp4 and gif only if < 1.5 MB, and avoid posting multiple per day unless absolutely necessary (avoid cluttering thread with animations only, as common sense dictates).
- if you cannot comply with any of the above, post the animation over the animations thread and link to main thread for discussion.

IF ALL HAPPY MAYBE NEVEN COULD MAKE THEM INTO A RULE OF SORTS  :) :) :) :) :)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:14:09 PM »
We can't possibly know!

Until it happens, then we will all know.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:55:32 PM »
These two charts might be of some interest. I present the average N of 70 temps from the given year (NOAA ESRL) Jan-Aug vs NSIDC September extent (I took the liberty of giving a value of 4 M Sq km to 2019).
Two takeaways:
1) There is a strong correlation between Jan-Aug temps and Sep extent. No surprise so far, but from this chart we can see that we would have a BOE if we hit -6 C vs this year's -9 C
2) 2012 was an outlier (too low extent) but 2016 was also an outlier (too high extent relative to temps!). The reason for the first is the GAC, and the second is extreme dispersion. 2019 is broadly in line (big red dot).

2 charts follow, the one with the extent and temp for each year chronologically, the other is showing the correlation

13
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:12:36 AM »
First visible light images from Sentinel 2 of the Pine Island Glacier.
The first image present the overview in reduced resolution (50m/pix). Then a detail in the native resolution of 10m/pixel.

14
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:01:25 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 18,149,860 km2(September 11, 2019)

Until about a week ago, sea ice extent was persistently increasing from the current period of record low extents (from 2016 to 2018) towards the the early 2000's higher extents. But since the 5th September extent dropped from 18.27 to 18.15 million km2. And now is back on the rise. 

- 2019 is now 6th lowest in the satellite record since 2002,
- Extent is above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 & 2008,
- Extent increase on this day 22 k, 27 k different from the average loss of 5 k on this day,
- Extent gain from minimum is 15.769 million km2, 0.111 million km2 (0.7%) MORE than the average of 15.658 million km2 by this day,
- 98.8% of average extent gain done, with 6 days to the average date of maximum (20 Sept).

The Perils of Projections

Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 18.39 million km2, 5th lowest in the satellite record, 0.33 million km2 greater than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
__________________________________________

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »
Where is the best place to find ICE VOLUME for last few years

See the PIOMAS thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg226663.html#msg226663

To summarise:





Plus of course Andy's animations:




16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:30:02 AM »
The more scientifically inclined amongst us might be interested in taking a look at this news received via Don Perovich:

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

At long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four at the MOSAiC expedition.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:18:46 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,025,718 km2(September 14, 2019)

Addendum:

JAXA extent September average

Yesterday, I showed how even if the 2019 minimum did not get below the 2016 value, it was likely the September average would.

The first table shows that with average extent increases from today, the 2019 September average would be below 2016 by nearly 200,000 km2. This is simply a reflection of that 2016 extent, after an early minimum, increased rapidly.

In my **arrogant opinion, the September average is a far better marker than the one-day value.

Plume of projections Of particular interest to me is in 2018, even though extent minimum was high, increases in the near term are so low as to be an outlier. In 2019, we have high SSTs and have had a record accumulated warming potential. Will this be enough to significantly slow refreeze so 2019 follows the 2018 path, or will a low minimum be followed by steep increases ?

365 day Average the current low extent has increased the rate of daily reduction in this average, giving a very early 2020 new record low. All will depend on extent increases during refreeze compared with 2018. Normally the difference between years declines as the freezing season progresses, which would delay or postpone indefinitely the date of the new record low.

Only a fool would dispute the above statements**
____________________________________________________________
** I've given up humble as part of my Grumpy Old Man Development Programme.

Arrogance is so much more fun than humbleness

_______________________________________________________________


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:08:29 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year?

This one you mean?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,238.msg228062.html#msg228062

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:02:47 AM »
The scientific people can have their own place as well then

Like in the good old days you mean, when the "melting season" discussion sometimes turned to scientific journal articles?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg31507.html#msg31507

Quote
Summer sea-ice cover can recover quickly in models when the climate cools into the following winter, because thin ice grows more rapidly (Notz 2009), and with diminished icecover, excess heat is more rapidly transferred to the atmosphere and radiated to space (Tietsche et al. 2011) (both are negative feedbacks). However, if cloud cover increases after summer sea-ice loss, then this could act as an insulating blanket in autumn–winter restricting sea-ice recovery (positive feedback) and potentially creating multiple stable states (Abbot et al. 2011).

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:12:16 AM »
Statisticians weep when they see people trying to fit 4-parameters functions to series with so few data points that vary so much.

That's another argument for the linear fit instead. To just see what the real experts use. I already posted the official PIOMAS graphs, which includes linear trend lines:

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png

And then there is the graphs in NSIDC's official extent discussions, such as this:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2019/09/Figure-3.png

Arctic Data archive System allows you to overlay a linear trend line but no other forms of trend line:

https://i.imgur.com/MbD14S3.png

JAXA includes a graph with a linear trend line in their Satellite Monitoring for Environmental Studies front page:

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/climate/data/graph/JASMES_CLIMATE_SIE_197811_000000_5DAVG_PS_9999_LINE_NHM_201.png

And NOAA:

https://arctic.noaa.gov/Portals/7/easygalleryimages/8/412/arc18_seaice_perovich_fig2.png

Meanwhile I don't see any serious attempts from the scientists in these organizations to get fancy with 3 or 4 or god forbid 5 parameter regression curves. Why do you think that is?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 07:48:55 AM »
P.S.: 2019 is 8,454 above the 2016 minimum of  4,017,264 km2.

That high over the NP looks set to intensify over the next 48+hrs according to GFS, and with just 8-9k more melt + compaction to add to the 144k lost over the last 5 days the next Jaxa update could very well take 2019 to 2nd lowest Arctic sea ice extent on record after 2012 with melt potentially continuing through this next week given the heat anomalies ... last years min was on 21 Sep!

What a remarkable melt season! Extreme weather events no longer appear to matter as the post 2012 new normal includes constant subtropical heat bombs, overheated peripheral seas and suppressed freezing seasons.

I've really enjoyed following the melt seasons here since 2013, and the freezing seasons since Frank rained on the NP in the dead of the Arctic night post Xmas 2015.

+1 to Jim Hunt and all the other seasoned commentators here who share their expertise and make this space such an informative place for the vast bulk of us lurkers. Please keep it coming!

22
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: September 15, 2019, 05:42:13 AM »
^^
From the article:
Quote
What can we learn from the bacteria?

"Although there is a lot of energy in methane, methane as a molecule is difficult to activate and break apart, says Professor Thamdrup.

"Finding out how microorganisms do the job is not only important for understanding the process. In the long term, it may also potentially be of biotechnological value. Maybe it can help us convert methane into other useful products."

Univ. of S.Denmark says "What can we learn from the bacteria?" -> products & exploitation.

This is from the natural sciences no less. Behaving like corporations subsidised by us.
There probably are exceptions but I see in biotech and microbiology absolutely NO RESPECT for other lifeforms and ecosystems.

   Other lifeform = potential product.  Nefarious.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:38:57 AM »
Be careful with answering Jim Hunt, you seem a candid poster and he's the worst troll if he wants to.
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain. If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Jim Hunt is one of the top contributors here. I learn a great deal from his posts, far more than I learn from your daily postings of weather gifs. And this site is about sharing real insight into AGW, not getting likes.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:40:22 AM »
Make them a size so they don't autoload.

Apparently you can't for MP4 files. Perhaps this conversation could be continued over on the topic set up for the purpose on July 8th by blumenkraft?

"GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?"

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 12:24:01 AM »
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain.

Apart from this one?

Quote
Absolutely!

Quote
If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Did it ever occur to you that the majority of those 4000+ messages were written before the "like" feature was added to the forum software?

26
The forum / Re: GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?
« on: September 14, 2019, 08:10:04 PM »
Ni .. can you help ? .. I've no idea what you said .. but I like the outcome .. I have no idea how to find the autoplay disabler . I have no education or much interest in computers other than to access what I think #I want to see . I don't understand the language and have made no attempt to learn . Could you post an 'idiots guide' to getting the job done perhaps on the gifs thread .. it would be much appreciated .. :)

Hi,

Posting here as per your suggestion via PM and do my best to get you there ;)

a) You'd need to update "Google Chrome" to anything above 76.x.xxxx.....
-   Attached screenshot(s) are OSX/Mac versions but to find and update
-   under Windows would be not so much different.

-   Thing is that a) and b) are not related but a) comes with a then new feature that would
-   not load background (invisible) media content by default which already solves one of your main
-   issues that was that each time you visit a page it would reload all the videos, images and gifs.
-   as to the videos i'm 100% sure it won't but i did not test each media file extension separately.


b) You'd have to install a specific Extension or several should you find others on my list that make sense for you ;) It allows you to decide on a "per site" basis to disable auto-launch/auto-play of
html5 content.

-   Screenshot attached as well and the link to that specific one separately below :

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/disable-html5-autoplay/efdhoaajjjgckpbkoglidkeendpkolai

c) As to dealing with .gif files in a similar manner i link you to a search collection containing various solutions and workarounds, perhaps you find one that is after your gusto.

Hopefully this is useful, else let me know, i'll come by here again ;)

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 14, 2019, 07:09:56 PM »
Oy! It seems to be ton-of-bricks day for me in the main thread today. Silly me, I thought some 10,000 downloads of a previous animation was an indication someone found it interesting. It turns out (I am informed) that everyone who visits the page is forced to download my work! (Unaware that I had this power, I remain mystified how it eludes others.)

It's gotten to the point over there where the very idea of animated data maps is not only irrelevant, but antithetical to a rigorous understanding of atmospheric science. Just nice pretty stuff. It turns out the purpose of the Nullschool Animations thread is to entirely banish our work from the other one. Who knew?

Well here's my meager 1.5 MB (down from 5) of hobbled defiance! Just kidding: I don't have a problem with this smaller version -- I think it's more appropriate for the main thread. But it's sad that intelligent contributors get so squashed around here, sometimes. As a duffer, I'm well-accustomed to the thesis that nobody has much use for me -- so I don't find it discouraging, myself. But I worry about the extremity of hazing around here. Why do we need to flame newcomers so much? (My 5 MB file is far from the largest on that page.)

From now on, the smaller (relatively data-meager) one goes on the main thread, with a link to the bigger one in here. If that isn't an adequate compromise for everyone, I don't know what compromise would look like. I appreciate having a place to show this stuff, because I have personally found it surprisingly informative (about which I hope to say more, later).

Thanks!

28
The forum / Re: GIF size, your Internet, and what is usable?
« on: September 14, 2019, 05:49:07 PM »
I have massively reduced my time on the forum lately . I did not realise just how much of my monthly data was being eaten by gifs . Freegrass has been costing me a small fortune as I race toward the inevitable data squeeze for the last week then fortnight of the month.
  I know blumenkraft and others have demonsrated there is no difficulty in providing gifs etc that do not self load or run automatically ; but most regular high megabyte uploaders ignore these options and go for maximal consumption options , obviously in a 'to hell with the planet' approach to warning us of impending doom .
 I will continue to appeal to people to consider those with low data provisions and more importantly the people who come after us .
  lol .. I just looked at the last 3 posts on the melt thread .. 8000kbs of data just gobbled . I can but try / cry .. b.c.
 
 

Are you aware that the forum has a WAP2 mode? Here you can browse in in text only, each visit only costing you 3-4 kB: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?wap2

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 05:12:24 PM »

........ this summer's deluge of data demanding posts
 

This problem has come up before - you can reduce the unwanted by altering your profile to reduce the messages displayed per page.

The default is 50, reducing to say, 25 (or even less), is supposed to reduce the load on your device. It does mean having to click onto the next page more often. (

see attached (you don't get the arrow)
_______________________________________
I have to say that if I've got a gif of more than a few hundred kb I deliberately make them more than 700 pixcels height and / or width. That stops the autoload.  For smaller image size on gifs I was reducing the number of loops, but then some people moaned because they wanted more.

I wonder if DungeonMaster could disable autoload - i.e. force "click to start" ?

30
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: September 14, 2019, 04:56:40 PM »
Suggestion:

Reduce post shown per thread to 20 (now 50).

This would reduce bits moved per thread opened by default. Fewer bits to load for users and deliver for the forum server.

@Neven, what do you think?
You can change that for yourself - choose modify profile

see attached (you don't get the arrow)
_______________________________________________________
EDIT

I have to say that if I've got a gif of more than a few hundred kb I deliberately make them more than 700 pixcels height and / or width. That stops the autoload.  For smaller image size on gifs I was reducing the number of loops, but then some people moaned because they wanted more.

I wonder if DungeonMaster could disable autoload - i.e. force "click to start" ?

That would stop the problem just like that.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 04:52:26 PM »
Sorry to see Jim declared a troll

Me too. That "troll" talk goes nowhere and is unnecessary, imho. Your concern means everything to me (of course I asked you right up there, and you just answered), so I'll find some way to drastically cut back on the size of the hindcast/forecast version I post here. But in order for there to be equity, shouldn't there be some common standard of what is acceptable? There's a case to be made that visual content can convey useful information for many visitors.

Can I have a clean conscience if I limit mp4's posted here to 2.5 MB, every couple of days? Several in this thread have posted far more.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 01:09:52 PM »
A "low bandwidth" animation of Arctic sea ice age since the 2015 minimum:




33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 14, 2019, 02:11:18 AM »
This is probably better for large file sizes. And I can tweet these...  ;D

34
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: September 13, 2019, 08:20:33 PM »
Thanks vox_mundi. This wall is abominable and obscene.
(I think you forgot to give the link to the article)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 07:35:36 PM »
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Sincere thanks to you & blumenkraft for the initial feedback. Maybe this place is a good graphic test bed. I'm still a bit skeptical of information overload here -- like there's so much going on it's impossible to take it all in. (A complication for me with some layered views I see.)

I'm an old graphic pro from a couple of incarnations ago, hacking about with my prehistoric version of Photoshop. The basic approach: two or more layers are merged into one, over and over, then the merged layers are output as jpegs, thence to EZGif. To pirate Aluminium's artwork I needed a little help from their splitter: https://ezgif.com/split

[EDIT: To be clear: I'm not worried about information overload here in the greenroom, I was referring to my own product -- trying to keep it simple enough to grasp.]

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 12:42:00 PM »
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing. I've combined Aluminium's last with the IWPD layer of my previous hindcast-forecast.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 13, 2019, 03:22:29 AM »
For an Aspie she copes with normies well.
I remember when I first read Desmond Morris "Man watching" and realized how much I miss in communication with normies . That epiphany happened long before I even knew what  asperger's  is and that I was one.
We Aspies don't do small talk it is mostly meaningless incomprehensible monkey chatter to us and very difficult to follow your thinking and read what you don't say in personal interactions.
It is not at all surprising to an  Aspie that Greta looks defensive when engaging with highly skilled social normies and comfortable when she is engaging with scientists.  We don't grok social chatter we do get and are comfortable with anyone who can impart knowledge in something that interests us. .

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 02:59:41 AM »

This makes a big assumption - that system behavior will be consistent as we reach that limit.

Based on the surprising end of season slowdown this year, I'm not sure that's safe. I'm still mulling hypotheses for what we are seeing and why the dynamics are not falling more in line with your assumptions. 

"Blue Ocean" is a boundary condition, and the retreat of the ice to where it stands now - post 2007 - suggests to me that the dynamics for the ice north of 80 are significantly different from those of the peripheral seas, which is were most significant visible changes in the Arctic have unfolded.


This is my thought too; that there isn't enough insolation to melt the ice N of 80°N with the current FDD thickness increase, even in a sunny year. To melt the ice there has to be less FDDs. Increased oceanic heat isn't going to effect the high Arctic sea ice while vertical mixing is prohibited by the halocline. The latter isn't likely to disappear completely because of the input of fresh water from rivers and ice melt. Mixing can occur during big storms, but they seem to be rare in the summer. If that's the case, then seeing the high Arctic ice free is likely to require a warm, cloudy winter as well as a bright summer.

Did I just state the obvious?
This is true but ignores the effects of export. Some years, including 2019, see constant export out of the >80o region, which effectively reduces thickness and lowers the threshold of heat required for meltout.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:49:03 PM »
osi-saf ice drift over summer for the mosaic startup area, jun-sep11 (every 2 days to reduce file size).

40
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:10:04 PM »
With the first new pictures in this austral spring from EOSDIS Worldview I estimated the movement of the calving front of PIIS from Feb 03, 2019 to Sep 10, 2019 (= 219 days). According to the actual position the front has moved in this time period by around 2.4 km, which equals to 11 m/day for this time period (checked at two different positions)

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:07:13 PM »
The latest NSIDC "quick look" sea ice age map:
Thanks Jim. Animation for (most of) this melting season from week ending mar25-sep2
edit: ani removed as it is reposted downthread

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 07:41:29 PM »
According to Jim's graphs, ice volume has decreased from 14.9 to 4.7 * 1000 cu. km from mid 80's to now
This represents approx 0.35 * 1000  cu km change / year  at time of minimum volume. Assuming a BOE occurs  when there is 15% of the 16,000,000 max in 1980 and an average thickness of remaining ice of 1 metre, the volume at a BOE would be 2.4 cu km
Therefore , at 0.35 * 1000 loss in vol / year , we could expect a BOE in (4.7-2.4)/0.35 = 6.6 years

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 12, 2019, 04:36:38 PM »
Longyearbyen, Svalbard, webcam back up after a few days’ outage. Was snow covered on September 4, prior to cam going down; now snow feee as of September 12, with cam back up and running:


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 03:15:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 September 2019 (5 day trailing average)  2,952,478   km2


On this day the 5 day trailing average AREA decreased by 9 k
One-day NSIDC EXTENT LOSS 35k (but still above the current minimum), JAXA extent LOSS 39 k (new minimum) k

                        
Total Area         
 2,952,478    km2      
-116,850    km2   <   2010's average.
-328,054    km2   <   2018
-1,105,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -9    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__   -8    k   loss
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
- Area LOSS 9 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average area loss of 7 k on this day,
- Total area 4th Lowest, 391 k MORE than 2016 (but 2016 is past its minimum), and 659 k MORE than 2012 and 5k more than 2011,
- Area is 42 k more than the current minimum on the 5th September.
________________________________________________________________________
Outlook
We are now well into the very last days of reducing and very variable daily area loss that that will slide to zero by around mid-September (or a bit later?, but the current area being 42 k more than the current minimum on 3rd September makes it very probable that the minimum has passed. Or has it?

But the book on JAXA & NSIDC Extent is still open.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 02:53:19 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 12, 2019, 02:14:01 PM »
Just a great photo


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:34:45 PM »
Here's the latest Arctic sea ice "Fake News" from all the usual suspects (except David Rose in the Fail on Sunday!):

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/ship-of-fools-iii-escapes-arctic-sea-ice/

The cryodenialistas have discovered that there's currently some sea ice off the east of Svalbard, whilst insisting it's off the west coast. For some strange reason they make no mention of the sudden absence of masses of multi-year sea ice north of Greenland.

Quote
Trygve Monsen and expedition leader Tore Toppe were among the 16 who were evacuated when MS Malmö got stuck in the ice on Tuesday. They respond strongly to what they call misinformation on the right-wing website document.no.

P.S. If any Norwegian speakers are in the house please feel free to critique my Google assisted translations into English.

48
Developers Corner / Dev library
« on: September 12, 2019, 11:48:41 AM »
Resizing table for overlays:
satellite           pxl       %      ~km/pxl    ~km^2/pxl
SMOS              397.5    75.815   11.92      5.06
Ascat              524.3   100.000    9.04      6.67
OsiSaf            1075.5   204.711    4.41     13.66
SMOS-SMAP   1146.0   218.577    4.13     14.59
AMSR2           1197.6   228.419    3.96     15.24



49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:49:15 AM »
September 11th, 2019:
     4,110,564 km2, a drop of -39,332 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:41:22 AM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 11 - 16

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?

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