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Messages - blumenkraft

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Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 03:55:36 PM »
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.

Looking closer at the breakaway ice edge north of FJL/Svalbard. FJL coast very top left.
rammb, very heavy contrast, jan22-26
GFS indicating wind fairly constant northeasterly at -28C or lower so it has to be warm water rising from depth doing that. Movement suggests tidal.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: Today at 01:46:20 PM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, dec1-jan25

4, jan7-26, rotated, north down, FJL(left) and Svalbard(right)

Also interesting from the mosaic thread:
To summarize, we have used co-located acoustic and CTD data to unequivocally demonstrate that there is a one-to-one correspondence of thermohaline stairsteps and acoustic layering. We were able to track a staircase continuously (with some interruptions due to ice breaking in between drift stations) for 36 h over a ship track of 91 km (Fig. 4a), and identify an isolated staircase, extending about 100 km laterally, in the Nansen Basin (Fig. 5). We also present observations of layers forming/disappearing and splitting/merging within a thermohaline staircase (Fig. 5d–f). Finally, we present, for the first time, continuous high frequency vertical displacements of individual steps within an Arctic thermohaline staircase caused by internal waves. It is hypothesized that a sudden transition within an internal wave, where much of the high frequency energy at the trailing side of the wave suddenly disappears, is related to shear instabilities.

The data presented here suggest that in order to fully understand vertical heat fluxes, not only the presence of staircases must be considered, but also the mixing caused by decaying internal waves, which is likely not accounted for in laboratory measurements, numerical simulations, or very localized (i.e., discrete profile) measurements. A synoptic view is needed where, ideally, acoustic observations similar to the ones presented here are augmented by concurrent CTD and microstructure observations. This acoustic observational technique should offer new insights into the mechanisms controlling layer formation and evolution, and eventually allow for greater understanding of interactions between double-diffusive convection and shear-induced turbulence, as well as their control on diapycnal fluxes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:06:32 PM »
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)

Likewise BK!

Whilst I'm here perhaps I might repost this A-Team animation from the MOSAiC thread?

The overall motion of the icepack over the last three weeks is better described as a 'Siberian Slam' against the CAA than TransPolar Drift. Note the boundary between FYI and MYI remains quite distinct and easy to track.

The year to date average geopotential heights over the Arctic demonstrate the split that has been visually very striking within the circulation for the past year to three years.  December 2019's "6000 thickness" shows the same.

This 6000 thickness plot shows geopotential meter thickness between 1000-500mb.  This is where the 540 line comes from.  "“The 540 Line” refers to the difference in height between the 500mb pressure level and the 1000mb pressure level (which is roughly the surface).  If the difference between these two pressure levels is 5400 meters…then the 540 Line gets placed there on a weather map"

Centering the scale on the 540 line and plotting geopotential heights over time, the emerging split jumps right out.

These are the raw geopotential heights, not an anomaly map.  When this is increasingly split, there has to be an increasing separation of the two rotations, which is visually quite striking over the past 3 years.  It's not the fact of it happening, it's that it has become preferred.

Analysis of corotating vortex interactions is typically found in aerodynamics studies of wake turbulence from aircraft, and not geophysical fluid dynamics.  I would bet this is an unassessed bad feedback in the dynamics.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 25, 2020, 05:09:41 PM »
Confirmation from Sentinel-1 that the tip fell off.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 03:17:03 PM »
nanning are there large greenhouses anywhere upwind of your location, does it get worse when/after the sun shines, are they heated? You could try using one of those activated charcoal masks urban cyclists use, otherwise your prolonged depleted state of vitamin D may indicate problems with myelin sheathing and/or gut biome so maybe the supplements would be a good idea, what about B12 levels?. 

Antarctica / Re: Widespread Melt on the George VI Ice Shelf
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:48:33 PM »
Widespread Melt on the George VI Ice Shelf
There has been record surface melt on the edges of Antarctica since mid-November, that I am speculating is reducing sea ice melt.

I have written about it on the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent thread. Last post @,1759.msg245950.html#msg245950

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
January 13-24.


Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:43:57 AM »
Re-posted from the 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 thread:
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.
I will do it in the next time. I have the monthly reading of four gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6) on my PC, in different files, and I can put them together.
I did it, but the sum differs from what I saw from gerontocrat's posting further upthread where he provides NOAA's annual table.
I took the monthly concentrations (beginning from 2000 on, before that date I do not have all the four gases) and multiplied CH4 with the factors 85 (20 years) and 28 (100 years), N2O with 264 (20 & 100 years), and finally SF6 with 17500 (20 years) and 23500 (100 years), using the conversion factors from the later IPCC report. Then I looked up the definition of these CO2 equivalents, which are not given in moles, but in kg and converted the numbers by taking their molecular weight.
I end up with the latest data (Sep 2019) with the following values (100 years equivalent):
CO2: 408.54
CH4:   19.05
N2O:   87.65
SF6    0.78
sum: 516.01
This sum is higher than the CO2 eq given further upthread. Also the proportions of the ratio CH4 to N2O differs completely from NOAA's table. Where is the error?

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:42:55 AM »
Re: RCP 2.6 concentration in 2020 is 412.1 ppm and the RCP 8.5 concentration is 415.8 ppm.

We will not be able to tell which CO2 path we are on for a decade or so.
all RCPs are very close to each other, difference comparable to noise.

and i see no reason to denigrate Mr Feldman. nowhere does he say that january numbers are the ones to compare.


The rest / The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 01:27:02 AM »
Ever see this post which is off topic but you want to respond to it?

Or there is an interesting yet off topic discussion developing?

And said post or discussion does not fit anywhere in the subforum it is actually in then you can move it here.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 24, 2020, 06:50:23 PM »
So the 24/01 two calvings, CR hour by hour (according to the pictures):

Aqua/modis image: no calving

Sentinel1 image: Iceberg: As a result of compression detachment of a splinter from the joint with the Cork (the detached part does not belong to the core of the joint and is next to the part under compression, but now the joint is no longer flanked by lateral thickenings at the compression stress reinforcing it and the joint is so thin ...)

Terra/Modis image: calving of the SW tip of the Iceberg (emblematic of the bad condition of the iceberg, already noticed)

Now he can break at any time.

Translated with (free version)

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: January 24, 2020, 06:10:53 PM »
The polynya marked by the pale magenta circle in replies 201 & 205 has a darker streak running northwards - implying that there is some source of warmth coming to the surface in that area?

It seems probable to me that the 'darker streak running northwards' in the sea ice from the pale magenta circle might be caused by relatively warm water existing the southwestern subglacial cavity shown in the attached image, associated with the relatively warm water entering into that cavity indicated by the western yellow arrow on this image (i.e. water entering into the subglacial cavity from the eastern side of the cavity likely exists from the western side of the cavity).

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: January 24, 2020, 06:01:18 PM »

Sanders +14 in New Hampshire since December!

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 23, 2020, 08:12:54 PM »
Here is an English translation of installment 10 of the MOSAIC podcast that is only available in German on the MOSAIC webpage. It was posted there last Wednesday (15. January) but mainly covers events from mid-December last year, namely the handover from leg1 to leg 2 seen through the eyes of the leg 2 leader Christian Haas.

Moderator: Audio Now    Arctic Drift – the audio logbook.

Christian Haas: Hallo, I’m  Christian Haas, I’m the project leader for leg 2. I’m not just a researcher, I’m also head of the Sea Ice section of the Alfred-Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven and I’m very happy to have been chosen to take on this task.

Moderator: The next part of the Mosaic Expedition is in full swing. In the meantime, Christian Haas has taken over Markus Rex’s post and is now the local expedition leader for the duration of the second leg. He and the other expedition participants were only able to reach the Ice Breaker Polarstern and relieve the crew of the first leg after  a long and difficult journey through the arctic.

Christian Haas: Yes, our journey began long before we reached the Polar Stern, in fact on the 27th November in Tromsö, where we went on board the Kapitän Dranitsyn.
There were about 60 scientists including the logistic teams and Polar Bear lookouts as well as about 40 of the Polar Stern’s crew, the sailors that look after us here on the Polarstern. We boarded on the 27th and sailed off immediately, but we  only sailed about 2 miles into the fjord before we had to drop anchor as the ship wasn’t fully prepared for the high seas: because of this we had to lash all the containers on deck and store all the other freight for the expedition either in the helicopter hanger or under the foredeck. Then, sadly, there was a very bad weather forecast that predicted a big storm would be blowing over the Barents sea that would make it too dangerous to sail. 10 metre waves were forecast and the ship is only built to withstand three or four metre waves. Therefore, we had to wait for 6 days in the fjord, off  Tromsö,  before we could start the trip. After that the voyage lasted 10 days, 2 days to traverse the Barents Sea, where the waves were moderate and  most of the passengers took it well. And then we went into the ice along its edge where we safe from the next storm that had already sprung up, causing waves on the open sea. Then we sailed north of Severny island [Ed.: The northernmost part of Nova Zemlya], an island that is part of the Siberian Arctic, and set our course North to get to the Polarstern and that took another 5 days.

Christian Haas: The voyage to the Polarstern was very, very  exciting and we all had great expectations of getting there as soon as possible. To begin with the journey through the ice was relatively rapid, but then from day to day it became slower and in the end we were travelling at an average speed of only 1 knot, so that the people on the Polarstern, who were greatly looking forward to finally being relieved, asked what we had been doing. But the Dranitsyn was just very cautious going through the ice to avoid getting stuck and  so took  her time to get to the Polarstern.

Moderator:  The new crew also had to get used to conditions in the arctic. The ice breaker supply ship Dranitsyn had to make its way in the darkness from waypoint to waypoint until it was only a few metres away from the Polarstern before materials and crew could be exchanged between the 2 ships.

Christian Haas:  The first interesting thing was that  on the first day of our voyage there was already no daylight, so that we had to get used the darkness. That made our first glimpse of the Polarstern in the distance, after 10 days at sea, all the more amazing and impressive. However, because it was roughly 40 miles distant, it quickly became clear to us that what we were seeing was a Fata Morgana, caused by reflections from air layers, which was itself an interesting phenomenon. Then we received a delegation from the Polarstern that came to us by helicopter from the Polarstern. One of the officers from the Polarstern, was seconded to us. He knew the waypoints and the coordinates and had an exact plan for how we could approach the Polarstern without colliding with any of the buoys which make up the network of autonomic stations around us that carry out automatic measurements. He knew a secure route for being able to get us as close as possible to the Polarstern. This was done very professionally and  in impressive style. The prow of the Dranitsyn approached the stern of the Polarstern to within 6 metres, so that nothing had to be offloaded onto the ice but instead, using the cranes of both ships,  it was possible to transfer freight and personnel between the two ships in both directions at the same time.


Christian Haas:  Despite the amazing positioning of the two ships it was unavoidable that we did have to transfer some heavy items from the stern of the Dranitsyn to the Polarstern via the ice.  This was done using 2 cranes in tandem, because items on the Dranitsyn couldn’t be transferred from the aft part of the ship to the front part. Instead, we had to offload heavy items such as helium gas cylinders onto the ice, then they were transported from the stern to the prow with a tracked vehicle and then they were taken up by the crane again to lift them onto the starboard side of the Polarstern. We were very happy, because the ice on the port side of both ships remained very stable, at least to begin with, but on the last day a crack in the ice did appear so that immediately after the last transfers had been completed it wouldn’t have been possible to traverse the crack and transfer the last heavy items from the helicopter deck to the Polarstern..

Moderator:  The expedition members could now make an on the spot appraisal of the situation and inspect the ice floe on which they would be spending the next months. For the first time they were able to see for themselves the cracks and other ice structures from which until then they had only heard from their colleagues and which had had such a strong influence on the expedition. 
Christian Haas:  We of the second leg were now very curious to have a look at the situation on the floe and see all the changes about which we had heard so much and from which leg 1 had had to suffer so much; in particular the cracks that were opening all the time and the displacements that occurred. And, as if pre-ordained, the next cracks appeared on the day of our arrival. One of our first actions was that we had to help out. Some of the instruments, especially the remote-controlled instruments, were standing on the ice in the covered area called  ROV City under which a huge crack had developed, directly under the covered area, and we had to rescue them. There was a lot of speculation about whether the cause might have been because the Dranitsyn had to come so near to the measurement area to access the Polarstern. But I think that it was in general caused by the high drift speed and the strong wind that prevailed at the time and that it was a simple deformation event, Anyway since then it’s been the case that the ice has been very, very quiet. Indeed, actually  that was the only deformation- or  break-up event that we ourselves experienced. Since then the floe has quietened down a lot. We moved the remote-controlled instruments and ROV city to a new site. But we haven’t had to reorganize anything else simply because the ice in the immediate vicinity and in the area where we are making measurements has remained static  and we have therefore been able to concentrate 100 percent on our projects and our measurements and have been able to work unhindered

Moderator: in the next installment you will find out how the new crew has adapted to life on the Polarstern and what progress the scientific measurements are making.

Moderato:  Arctic Drift – the audio logbook

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 23, 2020, 07:37:11 PM »
I analysed the latest Sentinel image of the NW tip of the SW Tributary (SWT)
Grounded icebergs (I think we have lost one of them) are circled in yellow.
New and/or widened cracks are marked by red lines
Some minor or mini calvings have happened (green circles)
The zone of destruction S of the tip, adjacent to the much much slower mowing ice W of the SWT is circled in orange. It shows a general widening of the cracks, one of the smaller icebergs within the cracks has tumbled over. I wonder whether a further calving of the tip will open a way for open waters to reach that area. The general flow direction is noted by blue arrows.

See attached picture.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 23, 2020, 06:40:18 PM »
That all you got?  :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 23, 2020, 05:23:33 PM »
Sorry to clutter this thread with this stuff, but thought some that responded might find it interesting. When I got my system, the installer provided a monthly predicted output based on the orientation, angle and potential for shading of my system.  I used that to standardize the data, with monthly output expressed as a percentage of the predicted value for that month.  First I just averaged each year's monthly Actual/Predicted to look at degradation. A linear regression through the values indicates a decay of 0.29% year.

Then I plotted every month as a percentage of that month's prediction for all years 2011 through 2018.  Early 2012 stands out as a long period of high output, sunny weather.

I had some system issues in 2018 that make the second half of the year's data suspect.

Science / 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:46:09 PM »
OK, we blew 2019.
Let's see if this year we can reduce CO2 emissions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:27:27 PM »
Plus the fact that if only one factory can support 1 gigafactory a year (Fremont supporting Giga3 and the start of Giga4), then 2 factories should be able to support 2 new gigafactories per year.

When we reach 4 active producing factories, the figures go off the charts.

Tesla is production constrained. It can continue building factories until it is demand constrained.

The market is factoring in production capability at 5m per year by 2025.

Then we have not started to talk energy.

Or insurance, trucks, commercial vehicles.....

Tesla is so much more than just a car manufacturer and it holds both technology and patents in several fields.

Never mind the fact that starlink is running flat out to be a service within 2-3 years and the synergies of Tesla and Spacex. The reason Tesla is putting Netflix In cars is not for you to use your car as a still life movie theatre but to watch on your commute under FSD.

Some analysts realise this. Most don't.

The value may reflect how many cars they produce today, but in 2-3 years it most certainly will not.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 23, 2020, 12:36:43 PM »
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output.  I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments.  One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all.  I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big.  It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012.  Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: January 23, 2020, 10:35:07 AM »
nanning, boring as repetition is but we have to refresh memory sometime:  Arctic Café 2019-09-18 UNCCD COP14.

Planet is here to support us, this is a platform upon which we live and this platform has to be ideal for life.
When I say life - all life, you cannot make it in such a way that this works only for human beings not others.
Every creature has to live, they are far more important for maintaining the balance in this planet than human beings,
Without human beings the planet will do very well, so all life here has a life of its own, they are not here to serve us.

These are the things that need to get across to the humanity. Thank you very much.

Inclusive Consciousness

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 23, 2020, 06:23:44 AM »
Interesting Tor. Thanks for the creative work.
I think even being responsible for 1 extinction is a terrible burden on one's conscience. The losses of ecosystems and lifeforms are indescribable and unfathomable. Total destruction indeed.  :'(

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: January 23, 2020, 12:42:14 AM »
Bellingcat funding: usual suspects

NED, OSF, and a rag, tag and bobtail of empire apologists.

Porticus, Adessium, The National Endowment for Democracy, Pax For Peace, Open Society Foundation and the The Dutch Postcode Lottery.They have previously received grants from Digital News Initiative and Porticus
Craig Murray and others have more.


Klein at the intercept: the Sanders campaign is different

"Bernie will fight for us because he always has. That he has the courage to take on the billionaire class. That he has a path to victory because of the unprecedented grassroots movement that the campaign has built."

“but what I have found is that the most important thing we can do is listen. People need to share their stories. That’s even more important than talking.”

"sounds less like conventional electoral campaigning and more like old-school political organizing "

“imagining a presidential campaign that brings people out of alienation and into the political process simply by presenting stories where you might recognize some of your own struggles. He is imagining a voter, he says, who thinks, I thought it was just me who was struggling to put food on the table. I thought I was the only person. I thought it was all my fault. You mean to say there are millions of people?”

"In a culture expert at the art of isolation and disempowerment, it takes real effort to persuade a group of beat-up people that they could be part of ushering in a radically different future."

"while a great many Americans are asked to kill and die for their country, they are almost never asked — across divisions of race, gender, religion, sexual orientation, and nationality — to stand up and fight for one another. "

“You know what beats the politics of hate? The politics of solidarity.”

"social media will always be a double-edged sword for the Sanders campaign."

"These platforms are for-profit data extraction mills ruled by black-box algorithms that are designed to maximize “engagement” (aka conflict) in ways that are almost the precise inverse of the cultural shift the campaign is attempting to achieve."

"Twitter’s algorithms goad us into brawling with one another over every perceived slight. And even as the campaign encourages us to put “me” on the back burner and find the biggest possible “us,” Twitter (and Instagram and Facebook) are designed for us to flaunt and curate an idealized version of ourselves that is too often going to make somebody else feel like crap."


Antarctica / Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« on: January 22, 2020, 10:23:27 PM »
I have now voted that it will get stuck because I do not believe it will escape north yet.
I forecast it will travel west (anti-clockwise) round the coast towards the Weddell Sea over a number of years, getting frozen in during the winters.

For comparison, B15AA has spent 20 years getting from the Ross Sea to the South Atlantic, where it will soon melt away. (I did find B15AA on (Ant) on 2016-08-13, @ long. 37.11554, lat. -68.27076, which is closer to the Weddell Sea than D28. On the image for 2019-01-19 it appears at long.-40.16057, lat.-64.97348 approx., having traveled west over the north of the Weddell gyre!) It has taken yet another year to sail free northwards.

I wait to be proved wrong!

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 22, 2020, 10:23:12 PM »
Temperature gradient through snow and ice from T56, T62 and T66. ctr

Quick analysis of T62 on jan22
Therm1-40 above snow
Therm41-47 snow/ice
Therm48-111 ice
Therm111-> ocean see inset

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 22, 2020, 09:12:35 PM »
The animation colours don't really display enough detail. The charts show a lot more variation. The cold, occasionally salty, fingers appear to be quite local. O6 really struggling. ctr
tech note: should have picked a later start date, unexpected autoshrink makes text barely legible

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 22, 2020, 09:03:46 PM »
Not knowing much about capacitors (yeah, less than even that), I had this idea the moment after I heard that Tesla bought Maxwell - that one could load up a (future 1,000 km range) EV's capacitors really fast (like in 5 minutes - "megacharge"!), then get the car back on the road, and have the capacitors then, at near-optimum rates, charge up the battery.


It just seems so... logical!  But maybe increasingly fast battery charging brings it close to the time required to safely charge such a capacitor. I look forward to learning why it doesn’t work.  Maybe in Tesla’s upcoming battery and drive train investor day?  ;)

It may be as simple as not being cost effective. Totally apart from the capacitors themselves, the connectors, conductors, contactors, IGBTs and fuses for, say, a couple thousand amps or more at 400V have got to be bulky, heavy and expensive.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 22, 2020, 08:42:09 PM »
Not knowing much about capacitors (yeah, less than even that), I had this idea the moment after I heard that Tesla bought Maxwell - that one could load up a (future 1,000 km range) EV's capacitors really fast (like in 5 minutes - "megacharge"!), then get the car back on the road, and have the capacitors then, at near-optimum rates, charge up the battery.


It just seems so... logical!  But maybe increasingly fast battery charging brings it close to the time required to safely charge such a capacitor. I look forward to learning why it doesn’t work.  Maybe in Tesla’s upcoming battery and drive train investor day?  ;)

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: January 22, 2020, 08:31:33 PM »
So, 7 years and 8 months from now we'll instantly halt emissions and simultaneously quickly capture enough CO2 to counter the loss of aerosols.   ... And then still suffer the consequences of the AGW caused by the 1.5C rise.

It's been a while since I heard "350 or bust".  I guess we're more interested in "bust."

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 22, 2020, 08:19:30 PM »
He did mention he had a short position.
I hope he is not under some bridge.

The rise is insane who the hell is buying such a volatile stock at such high prices ?
If it is a Short squeeze it represents billions in losses.

Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: January 22, 2020, 06:42:29 PM »
Space mission to reveal 'Truths' about climate change

The UK is going to lead a space mission to get an absolute measurement of the light reflected off Earth's surface.

The information will be used to calibrate the observations of other satellites, allowing their data to be compared more easily


Barring technical showstoppers, the ministers should then green-light the mission for a targeted launch in 2026.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 22, 2020, 06:26:30 PM »
Here's a paper from October 2019 with a map.
A silent demise: Historical insights into population changes of the iconic platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus)
Tahneal Hawke, Gilad Bion, Richard T. Kingsford
•    Historical data highlight distribution and abundance declines in iconic platypus.
•    41.4% of sub-catchments have no platypus records in the last 10 years.
•    Shifting baselines has led to the underestimation of the magnitude of platypus declines.
Platypus map from the article.  Fire map from early January 2020.  Maps resized and rotated to approximate east coast match. [[url]EZGIF editor/maker[/url]]

Some of the fires are where platypuses haven't been seen in a decade.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2020, 03:33:07 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,199,967 km2
Total Area         
 12,199,967    km2      
 195,604    km2   >   2010's average.
-63,066    km2   <   2019
-336,135    km2   <   2000's average.
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     17    k   gain
 Central Seas__     14    k   gain
 Other Seas___     25    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____     0    k   gain
 Barents ______    -2    k   loss
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    23    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 15 k MORE than the 2010's average of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 196 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 63 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 920 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 22, 2020, 01:21:45 PM »
Obuoy temperature ani's for reference, 10-75m
Tech note: scales are different
The buoy sets are slightly different too? It looks like as many as 3 could be run without entanglement. The animation of the final frames and side-by-side are shown below.

Looking at 'Mosaic_multisensor' to see if the Mosaic expedition had access to other radar satellites in addition to what PolarView shows for Sentinel, it appears the answer is no. M_m is still poorly done with no mid-course improvements, with satellite images lacking critical access numbers, provided dates erroneous, 48 hour applicability falsely claimed, too small choice of scale, gratuitous rotations that make comparison of successive images difficult, lat/lon of position not synched with  S1AB and obliteration of the Polarstern region with the red circle. However a precise lat/lon for 0600Z can be read off the images on days no S1AB was taken. A poorly implemented scientific product inevitably raises questions about the rest.

The Polarstern is currently drifting west and more south 'on top' of a meandering anti-cyclone. Actual drift is generally 'to the right' of near-surface wind direction. Accurate latitudes are not disclosed so sailwx will sit at "87.5" even as it declines; longitude is decreasing by 1º per 22 hrs. The inset shows "87.4" is due at about 1800Z (except that wind direction and speed vary by the hour).

Very minor shearing is showing on the most recent day of bow radar. 'Follow' offered a possible explanation yesterday for varying image exposure and orientation: the radar is not gimbaled and so changes its incident angle if the stern swings around or the bow rises/falls (as ice anchors fail). This data could be used to uniformize the imagery but it is not disclosed, The PS also has strain gauges welded along its hull. That data is not disclosed either.

'Despite being solidly frozen into the ice, the forces of wind and currents* affect the ship. Depending on their directions, the Polarstern is pushed against the MOSAIC floe or pulled away from it. The latter strains the six ice anchors, which therefore need to be need to be monitored regularly. Today's check showed that five anchors were properly fixed - however one needed some additional care: Steffen and Andreas found a gap next to the 1.20 meters long metal I-beam. They filled it up with snow and poured water inside. The mix freezes solid almost immediately at the current temperatures of -28 °C.'

* No significant independent near-surface currents are known under ice in the central Arctic Ocean. A paper from N-ICE2015 describes the acoustic doppler measurement process and results; the four floes were located near the tip of the Yermak Plateau, meaning measured small currents were affected by tides, rising Atlantic Water boundary currents, adjacent ice edge, and passing storms; thus it is inapplicable to the Polarstern's situation. see 2.2.5, 3.5 and Fig 10

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 22, 2020, 12:00:34 PM »
PSY4 animations available here. Be aware that the scale is not static.
Individual static scale maps are here (just edit both dates in the address)

Global atmospheric angular momentum has gone net U positive for the first time in the record.

This should say relative AAM not total global AAM

Global AAM regularly cycles between positive and negative, but excluding the QBO, all global winds became Westerly yesterday, even in the Tropics, for the first time in the record.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 22, 2020, 08:47:53 AM »
Thanks for the information GrauerMausling and for some context blumenkraft. I don't understand the whole thing but have read upthread about Nvidia graphics cards and they use up a lot of energy and are very expensive. I have also read upthread that Tesla uses ASICs which you say is too expensive and kidding.

I am surprised that, as you explained, the bottom-up approach is used without starting of with an integral whole-car-system-design. Aren't the engineers talking to each other?
They are probably overruled by a cost-cutting business-as-usual-approach economist/financial department. Just a layman's idea.

They could look at Formula E and Formula One and get some ideas without having to 're-invent the wheel'. I expect Mercedes to use that know-how for their benefit.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 22, 2020, 04:36:12 AM »
eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

That is not a good sign. I hope the cities (and everyone in them) are spared. Stay safe!
I hope not: Better a city burns down than a forest. People are easier to evacuate than koalas and kangaroos.  Plus, a healthy shock might make deniers start thinking.

Beside these 2 purely rational reasons, methinks Australia desperately deserves it. They voted for hell, after all. So, bring it on!

This is a rediculous response.
Australia is part of the problem and the country is seeing the effects of climate change.
But it isnt as if we are the only ones.
The entire rich world is to blame for climate change.

As for the healthy shock.
Australia has healthy shocks almost every year, yet the public keep on keeping on.
The same is true of the US... of Europe, the UK, Russia and may other countries.

I honestly cant fathom comments that align with letting cities burn because of the actions of all of our actions.
I doubt Melbourne will burn this year, Sydney is looking like it might lose a suburb or two..... and should it happen, I still dont think the country ill change because the entire political class has proven themselves to not care about the people of this country... who, by the way, want climate action as a majority.

This article delves into that somewhat, but it is several months old and the fire situation is far worse now as is the level of being pissed off.... yet the Govt keeps on doing BAU.

People really need to stop saying idiot throw away words like Australia deserves to burn, because that is where the entire planet is heading and I am as sure as shit sure that most people dont deserve that result.

Week of January 19th 2020:

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 22, 2020, 12:23:46 AM »
Thanks for the ideas. I have a lot of reading/checking to do.
Posting these Obuoy temperature ani's for reference, 10-75m
Tech note: scales are different

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:20:39 PM »
Maybe more influence from itp102/mosaic being close to the interface of two very different salinities (according to the model)

While the linked article discusses several different aspects of the state of the climate in 2019, I note that in order to adjust the global mean surface temperature anomaly (GMSTA) values shown in the attached image from the 1981 to 2010 period to the 1880-1900 pre-industrial period one needs to add between 0.6 to 0.75C.  While many people like to focus on the mean GMSTA values, it is the right-tail probabilities where the risk exists (note that regarding the Copernicus data for 2019: 0.59C + 0.75C = 1.34C).

Title: "State of the climate: How the world warmed in 2019"

Extract: "All of the official climate data for 2019 is now in. In this article, Carbon Brief explains why last year proved to be so remarkable across the planet’s oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere and surface temperature.

Temperatures are shown as anomalies relative to a 1981 to 2010 average; note that the 1981 to 2010 period is around 0.6 to 0.75C warmer than the 1880-1900 preindustrial period."

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 21, 2020, 12:29:09 PM »
A recent Guardian article mentioned that Morrison has already diverted money from an AUS$ 2B restoration fund to prop up the (private) tourism sector and an international media campain to advertise Australia to potential tourists.

He and his government do know how to take quick action.

Dont get me started, otherwise I may not be able to stop..... there are so, so, so many examples of rampant corruption that it beggars belief.

And the hypocrisy...... $2 billion put up for fire recovery over 3 years while talking up jobs and security while they spend $49 billion per year on subsidies for fossil fuel companies.

I need to stop before I start.

On the fire front, rain has arrived in some regions, fires are still there but smaller and sort of contained. It looks like this will remain the case for the coming 3 to 5 days as wet weather hangs around.
But, when they moves on, we are back to heat and winds again. Next month will be the month to watch closely because that is the worst one for fires.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: January 21, 2020, 08:02:45 AM »
Hey Tom did you know this:

Mongoose are opportunistic feeders that will eat birds, small mammals, reptiles, insects, fruits, and plants. They prey on the eggs and hatchlings of native ground nesting birds and endangered sea turtles. The small Indian mongoose has been blamed with the extinction of ground-nesting birds in Jamaica and Fiji and commonly kill birds, including 8 federally listed endangered Hawaiian birds, such as the Hawaiian crow (‘alalā), petrels (ʻuʻau) and Hawaiian goose (nēnē). It was estimated in 1999 that mongoose cause $50 million in damages to Hawai`i and Puerto Rico annually.

Bad mongoose! ;)

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