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Messages - Gerntocratis#1

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2020, 05:39:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 17th, 2020:
     3,734,834 km2, a 100K+ increase of 104,616 km2. (confirmed)
September 18th, 2020:
     3,745,309 km2, an increase of 10,475 km2.

September 19th, 2020:
     3,723,586 km2, a drop of -21,723 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:50:19 PM »
gerontocrat gave his view on the news source. I found his post very interesting. It is not always the cold hard data that matter.

"Scissors, scissors..."
Are you a hairdresser perchance? ;)

There is a link at the bottom of every post that says "Report to moderator"
That's the one to use if you have complaints. No need to bother us all.

Perchance are you a joker?
No, I remember you now. Yeah, you are that clown that hates human kind.

Sorry for editing but I find this guy very hilarious:
“0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring”

So he places at similar level of achievement in his badge that we showers once or twice a week at most with with disinterest or inability to procreate. This is extremely rich.

0kg CO2?? Totally zero?? If you have an account in this server, your carbon footprint is very far from zero, let alone your farting.

You are so fake, lol

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:00:26 PM »
And another day's oddness in the Central Arctic Sea ... but perhaps the last day

In the last four days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 117k.
Central Arctic Sea extent declined by just another 4k on this day and is now a new record low minimum at 82k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

And just maybe some real weather hits the central arctic by middle of next week

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« on: September 18, 2020, 06:34:57 PM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data up to day 259 (15/16th September). Calculated volume on day 259 was 4.06 [1000 km3], which is second lowest for the day. It is also the preliminary minimum for 2020 but that may change of course.

Here is the animation for September so far.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:04:05 PM »
''Fear not !'' said he , for mighty dread had seized their troubled minds .. b.c.

7
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 17, 2020, 08:28:40 PM »
Nico Sun (aka Tealight) has produced some really good visuals on Albedo Warming Potential. (see links below).

The table and graph attached show how sea ice loss to date, especially in the 7 seas of the High Arctic,  has merely allowed a fraction of the AWP to be released compared with an ice-free Arctic.

The third graph shows that nevertheless increased AWP to date has the potential to significantly affect the incidence of ice-free days.

It was the work by Nico Sun & others and a comment by A-Team some time ago about the seas being in transition from icy deserts to open water that gave me the idea to show open water instead of ice in graphs The last graph is an example..

____________________________________________________
Noco Sun limks....
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp-region.html
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp

8
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 16, 2020, 09:37:06 PM »
Here I want to calculate a range of fractional BOE area values and display them over various common Arctic Ocean graphics in plausible areas and shapes for remnant ice. For example, what does two million sq km of ice look like up against the Canadian coast?

According to wikipedia, a polar cap area on a spherical earth (not quite our WGS84 ellipsoid) can be calculated by a simple formula given the radius of the earth and the latitude of the bottom of the cap. Having some target areas for BOE in mind, inverting the area formula will give the cap latitude yielding them.

The formula given is area = 2 pi r*r (1-cos (theta)) where theta is the polar angle included from the center of earth to the pole and to the bottom of the cap. This is not the latitude but rather its complement lat = 90-theta. Solving for theta for target area with the shorter polar radius of the earth taken as 6357 km amounts to finding a spreadsheet to provide the arccos function and convert radians to degrees:

90 - theta = 90- degrees(acos(1-(target area ÷ 2 *3.1416 * 6357 *6357)))

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spherical_cap

target area   cap lat
 500000   86.40
1000000   84.91
1500000   83.77
2000000   82.80
2500000   81.95
3000000   81.18
3500000   80.48
4000000   79.82
4500000   79.20
5000000   78.61

These need to be checked against a daily NSIDC matching area during late melt season (eg four million sq km but Greenland Sea and CAA unwelcome minor contributions) because the polar stereographic projection is not equal area -- the pole region is off by 5-6%. However for simply visualizing what remnant ice would look like, it is good enough.

The outcome shows the 85º latitude is convenient for BOE 1.0 as it comes provided on products such as AMSR1_UHH. The 80th parallel is similarly appropriate to the four million BOE 4.0. Elsewhere, the radius for the circle tool centered on the pole can be figured after pixels/degree are calculated from parallels provided or from known land latitudes such as the Bering Strait at 65.89°.

After drawing the polar cap out to the chosen radius in an auxiliary layer and filling it, the pixel count should be noted in the histogram tool. This will vary depending on the scale of the underlying image resource, eg OsiSaf, AMSR2_large, Mercator Ocean etc etc.

Next, the move and loop tools in Gimp freeware can be used to move the cap area to another location and to another shape while holding the pixel count at the histogram constant. For example, the fractional BOE area might adjusted so its bottom uses the upper contours of the CAA islands.

Some examples in a bit. The final shape favored will vary from person to person for each fractional BOE as the 2012-2020 shapes of remnant ice vary quite a bit.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 04:54:43 PM »
What a switch round - area losses in the Central Arctic Sea make it possible that the minimum is not yet reached (see Glennbuck's post above).

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,695,225 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,695,225    km2      
-416,027    km2   <   2010's average.
-286,915    km2   <   2019
-1,385,911    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -24    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 25 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 416 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,386 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 66 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 287 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 444 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,740,476 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 6 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 2k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 776 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,810 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 520 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 554 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 322 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 04:34:28 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: September 14th

Arctic Sea ice daily area: 2,617,631 million km^2, low for the season set today, passing previous low of 2,650,235 million km^2 on September 7th.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 63,509 km^2


(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.617               NSIDC: Extent daily:


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

11
And GFZ have just updated their GRACE-FO data to July - so here are the graphs .

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 14, 2020, 03:11:37 PM »

blaming WHO

The WHO is complicit in the spread of this virus.  The whole purpose of the WHO is to protect the world's health.

Remember back in January when they weren't telling the world it was spread via droplets, no pandemic declaration, nothing - and didn't warn anyone about international flights from China in January/February?  They praised China's response, which was literally welding people inside their apartment complexes. 

The WHO deserving is de-funded by the US - that organization lost all credibility with the COVID response in January and February.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 14, 2020, 05:49:46 AM »
Thank you, Gerontocrat and Juan, ...

And if you do put out a single, I will buy it!

You are welcome, Pagophilus.  :)
And I also thank many people who are working hard on this and other threads.  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 13th, 2020:
     3,554,798 km2, a drop of -9,058 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 14, 2020, 03:37:57 AM »
New hot spot? The northern Laptev has perhaps not been told about the end of melt season, the gold line showing the week's shrinkage. The AMSR2_AWI are just coming in now as an afternoon assembly. It seems that the 14 hr am swaths did not quite add up to complete coverage often enough.

Monday morning: the archive is back to its twice-daily! The Beaufort Arm and northern Laptev remain active areas of intra-day change.

The orbital progression is shown below. It might make sense to make an avi using each consecutive pass as a frame. This might be useful to people wanting the very latest data (or recent time series) on just a specific area who don't need the whole Arctic Ocean build. That area might fall within a consistent repeat swath (or not).

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 13, 2020, 07:53:57 PM »
Lol this is too much. I start to understand bbr. What the hell has QAnon have to do with Covid-19 “around the world”?
Is this the beginning of a second pseudo conspiracy to explain why the demented will probably lose? Russian bots, QAnon bots... LOL

Moderator: do something

16
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: September 12, 2020, 07:35:37 PM »
280 ppm is the pre-industrial level. Reaching that means returning to nature's original track. That should be the goal. To undo the damage we've done.

Back on this old nonsense eh nanning? It would have been better had humans never evolved! But then that would mean blaming... nature?

At 280ppm we were heading into a glacial period.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 04:45:22 PM »
"AUDIO: Listen to Trump's call with Bob Woodward"

That he let Woodward record the conversations reminds me of when the WH released the “perfect” letter. At the end he “won” and continues claiming the letter was perfect.

What people, I hope, don’t forget is that in February absolutely every government was minimizing the coronavirus pandemic to avoid panic but especially because they knew they were not prepared. The WHO was in murderous denial as well “not a pandemic”  “clean your hands and cough over your sliver”.
“Masks are not effective even detrimental”
Madame Pelosi was lying too, just to expose alleged Trump racism against chinese.

Almost everybody was downplaying it and what the conversation shows is that everybody knew one or two months before you and I.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2020, 05:35:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 11th, 2020:
     3,562,288 km2, a drop of -8,755 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 11, 2020, 05:29:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 10th, 2020:
     3,571,043 km2, a drop of -15,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S.: As a curious fact, the 2020 ASI extent is only 49.4% of 1980's average. That is, 2020 ASI extent is 44,313 km2 less than the half (3,615,356 km2) of 1980's average.

20
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: September 10, 2020, 08:32:31 PM »
Here is the latest monthly average of Mauna Loa CH4 concntration:

May 2020:     1874.7 ppb
May 2019:     1861.9 ppb
Last updated: September 05, 2020

This is an annual increase of 12.8 ppb. This is the highest annual increase since March 2015!

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [1601.2 ppb]. May 2020 is at 117.1 compared to that index.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 10, 2020, 04:42:16 PM »
JAXA is back up!  Data is updated through 09/09.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I will let Juan post the specifics.

Sorry I thought they will post a day later. My mistake.
Thanks JNap, RikW & Gerontocrat.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 9th, 2020:
     3,586,426 km2, a drop of -3,383 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 10, 2020, 02:12:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,694,491 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,694,491    km2      
-372,890    km2   <   2010's average.
-301,563    km2   <   2019
-1,360,536    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    0    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    2    k   gain
Central Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 0 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 10 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 373 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,361 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 216 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 302 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 376 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,791,569 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 9 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 19k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 758 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,834 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 354 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 584 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 294 k more than 2012
   
______________________________________

Extent and area losses tending to zero.
      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 06:40:14 AM »
Certainly the garlic press is very active on both sides of Ellef Ringness island, and also the crack above Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg has shrunk due to ice movement. However it seems to me some refreezing is occurring as well.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2020, 02:14:47 PM »
The melting season is not over - yet.

NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,707,776 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,707,776    km2      
-382,282    km2   <   2010's average.
-276,759    km2   <   2019
-1,352,275    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 13 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 382 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,352 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 249 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 277 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 366 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 07-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,834,377 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 55 k, 30 k more than the 2010's average loss of 25k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 760 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,824 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 367 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 529 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 317 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

25
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 08, 2020, 11:35:49 AM »
Cork3b has detached itself, waiting for P2 ...

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 07:45:17 PM »
In what region would you expect that rebound, gandul?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 04, 2020, 04:03:31 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −112

7-day average:  (3939 − 4363) / 7  =  −61
14-day average: (3939 − 4704) / 14  =  −55

2020-08-20  4.704
2020-08-21  4.630    −74
2020-08-22  4.577    −53
2020-08-23  4.552    −25
2020-08-24  4.492    −60
2020-08-25  4.429    −63
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 04, 2020, 03:45:02 PM »
With JAXA out of commission, maybe some more NSIDC stuff will dry some tears.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,084,214 KM2 as at 03-Sep-2020

- Extent loss on this day 82k, 48 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 10,800 k; 882 k, (8.9%) more than the 10 year average of 9,918 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  383 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  462 k MORE than 2012,
- Extent is  416 k LESS than 2007.
_____________________________________________
On average 97.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 11 days to minimum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-EXTENT-1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.83 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.39 million km2.
______________________________
Daily sea ice extent is already below 4 million km2 + a 112k dasily extent loss, so a few more above average extent losses may be on the cards.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 05:43:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 3rd, 2020:

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1300656613674463232?s=20

This is cruel and unusual punishment...

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 03, 2020, 08:54:25 PM »
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1301579828617863168
Quote
Plume of Siberian wildfire smoke has traveled all the way to the North Pole today...


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 03, 2020, 05:31:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 2nd, 2020:
     3,860,699 km2, a drop of -34,299 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

32
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 02, 2020, 08:12:05 PM »
What had to happen, happened  ;)

Almond, goodbye
The outermost piece of Cork3 (relative to the SIS) follows him.

Tomorrow's image will be interesting to see the latecomers who will follow them.

NB: The image is from the 02, but we don't have any images from the 01/09.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:53:56 AM »
The ice on the ESS side of the CAB is an area that really needed to melt out to 82/83N for 2020 to have a real shot at trying to reach 3 million km2 or less.


That didn't happen.

But this area also didn't get almost any compacting winds and ice from the beaufort/chuckchi was sent this way

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:31:18 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 1st, 2020:
     3,894,998 km2, a drop of -48,315 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

35
Every year, on average, the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) of Greenland increases by about 365GT.
In no year on record, (including 2012) has melting / run-off exceeded precipitation (snow and rain).

So at the moment, it is calving and melting of marine-terminating glaciers that, by being greater than SMB increase , is causing the Mass Balance of the GIS to fall.

This year Greenland melt was very high over most of the melting season, but during this time precipitation was higher than usual. This high energy weather produced an end result of about a 350 GT SMB increase - close to average. Perhaps looking at the past may not be a good way of looking at what comes next. AGW + Polar amplification, warming of the seas and reduction of winter sea ice, especially in the Baffin. More warmth, more snow, more rain? What will be the result both for SMB and melting / calving of the glaciers ?


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 03:29:51 PM »
In the Laptev Sea, 2020 finally took a new absolute record.  :'(

1. 2020    379 km2
2. 2014    887 km2
3. 2018   9031 km2
4. 2013  11830 km2
5. 2011  14157 km2
6. 2012  21509 km2

37
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: September 01, 2020, 01:45:32 PM »
Russian Glacier In Urals Region Has Completely Melted, Scientists Say

One of the largest glaciers in Russia’s Urals region has completely melted, according to members of a research group that carried out an expedition.

The glacier known as MGU, which was 2.2 kilometers long when it was discovered in 1953, has vanished, the researchers from the Scientific Center for Arctic Studies said in an August 31 statement.

The researchers carried out their expedition from August 19 to August 28 and visited the sites of two other glaciers.

MGU was the second largest glacier by mass in the Urals polar region and its longest when it was initially discovered.

Mikhail Ivanov, one of the scientists, said a “large amount” of ice still existed when they last visited MGU in 2010.

Parts of the iceberg were still visible in photographs taken by tourists to the area in recent years, he said.

“This year, it turned out, it completely melted,” Ivanov said.

Russia’s Urals and Siberian regions have experienced unusually high temperatures in recent years that have been blamed on global warming.

https://www.rferl.org/a/30813660.html

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:31:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 31st, 2020:
     3,943,313 km2, a drop of -51,770 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. 2020 became the second lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends.

39
Wow - open water at the calving face of Zacharie Isstrøm.  Don't recall ever seeing this before.



40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:10:23 PM »
So I think I have an evening off and then find that NSIDC posted the data a couple of hours later than usual....

NSIDC Total Area as at 30-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,715,948 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,715,948    km2      
-531,337    km2   <   2010's average.
-279,404    km2   <   2019
-1,489,456    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -28    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss
Central Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    10    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -30    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 28 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 27 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 531 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,489 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 24 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 279 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 199 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 30-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,356,729 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 34 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 35k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 507 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,551 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 223 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 265 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 576 k more than 2012

___________________________________________
Will NSIDC data follow JAXA with above average sea ice area and extent losses?   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2020, 05:48:02 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: August 30

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,656,970 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: Area loss of 46,807 km^2

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.656               NSIDC: Extent daily: 4.260


NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 17
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2020, 05:32:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 30th, 2020:
     3,995,083 km2, a drop of -63,462 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. 2020 became the third lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 11:34:04 PM »
Has anyone got any idea where I can read up the reasons for Arctic's Inverse stratification ?
Or can someone explain it here ?

Will try but am sure others can explain it better than I.  The simple explanation is that with a sufficient salinity difference and a temperature gradient that is not too great, cooler fresher water is less dense than warmer saltier water.  The arctic surface water is made fresher by precipitation, glacier runoff, iceberg and ice shelf melt water, river inflow (particularly over the shallow coastal shelf on the Siberian side) and also cycles of sea ice freeze and melt.

When seawater freezes it undergoes brine rejection as part of the crystallization process.  How this can be viewed is water molecules at the freezing point impact the undersurface of other water molecules that are frozen or freezing and some percentage (it is at the scale where quantum mechanics kicks in so the behaviour is statistical) surrender kinetic energy, stick and enter the solid state thus releasing latent heat.  Salt molecules are rejected in the process as not fitting into the crystalline structure.  However, as I understand it some slight amount of salt becomes trapped and encapsulated in freezing water particles and incorporated into the ice.  The rejected salt molecules create localized pockets of dense, very salty brine which rapidly sinks away into the depths.  The sea ice as a consequence is substantially freshened versus the water from which it formed.

When the sea ice subsequently melts the next melt season the resultant melt water creates a freshened lens of relatively cool less dense and salty water that floats on the warmer saltier currents below, much of which is North Atlantic surface currents that dive under the less dense Arctic Surface Water as they enter the Arctic proper, particularly once reaching the Nansen Basin which underlies the CAB on the Atlantic side where greater depth lends itself to more complex stratification.  A similar process occurs on the Pacific side to a lesser degree due to the narrowness of the Bering Strait.

As we are still undergoing a draw down of sea ice volume, freeze season extent is diminishing slower that melt season extent, and there is considerable ongoing glacier melt inflow, there is still plenty of freshened melt water each season to somewhat maintain the stratification.  The danger is that we will start to run out of non-Greenland glaciers at some point, the shallow Siberian side which is only 2% of Arctic water volume subsequently loses much of its freshening river and glacier inflow and these peripheral seas then see further extent and thickness reductions which lessens the brine rejection mechanism and a vicious feedback occurs where a saltier Arctic results in less sea ice formation, since saltier water freezes slower and at a lower temperature, which leads to a further increase in salinity and even less ice.  Looking at the pattern this year is worrying.

It gets worse, as I understand it the Arctic surface water in the CAB, specifically over the Amundsen Basin is only slightly less saline that the warmer Atlantic waters below which means it has always been on the razors edge of breaking down.  In the past this did not matter as the central arctic was proof against melting out.  But it is vulnerable, if it ever has a BOE it will start to mix with Atlantic surface water once no more fresh melt water is being added and that Atlantic water is much harder to refreeze.  That being said, we may see freshening of the CAB in the near term as more CAB melt starts to occur each year, delaying things a bit.  However models that suggest we may get a BOE every now and then in the future may be painting a too rosy picture.  BOEs likely create an environment that favors more BOEs, at some point it is probably a runaway phenomenon.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2020, 05:05:13 PM »
NSIDC graphs... Central Arctic Sea

The ice edge heading north on the Atlantic Front continues to reduce sea ice area and extent.
Ice area now below 2 million km2.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 04:27:36 PM »
My first and probable last look beyond the next 3-5 days.

My guess, that I will revisit over the coming days- either to preen or to eat crow, is as follows....

For the next 10 days or so a more or less continuous flow of warmish wettish air carried on a strongish air flow from the mid-Atlantic travelling on a broad front up the Greenland & Norwegian Seas. This will then be sent across the Central Arctic towards the CAA & Beaufort, maybe picking up some Siberian warmth on the way.

Result- the ice edge will breach 85 North on a wide front perhaps all the way from 30o East  to  75o East. Will this result in a record low Central Arctic Sea area & extent? Another hostage to fortune - YES.

What that means for the ESS, Beaufort & the CAA I do not have a clue, but my guess is that the Greenland Sea, despite current increases, will get a considerable additional melt in September.


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2020, 05:35:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 29th, 2020:
     4,058,545 km2, a drop of -60,389 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The 2007 minimum is 4,065,739 km2, today's 2020 ASIE is 7,194 km2 lower, so 2020 became the fourth lowest minimum on record today. There are still about two weeks left until the 2020 melting season ends, so 2020 will be mostly certain the second lowest daily minimum.

47
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 29, 2020, 04:37:15 PM »
The posts above this one in this thread are very off topic and should be removed.

Meanwhile the fires in Siberia are raging. Can we make it a rule that reblogging content is not allowed without analysis, it is literally just spam otherwise....!

It looks like another major plume is inbound to the Arctic.


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2020, 05:31:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 28th, 2020:
     4,118,934 km2, a drop of -37,945 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2020, 03:24:21 PM »
The Beaufort & Central Arctic Seas

The only question to me is - how far will sea ice loss go?

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2020, 03:21:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,761,785 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,761,785    km2      
-604,552    km2   <   2010's average.
-214,308    km2   <   2019
-1,517,512    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -21    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 21 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average loss of 33 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 605 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,518 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 151 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 214 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 109 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 26-Aug-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,479,600 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 40 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average loss of 52k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 557 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,572 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 423 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 163 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 451 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________
Quote from yesterday:-
Extent and area losses are slowing down.
Maybe just the weather moving into the new pattern of winds mostly from Central & West Siberia generally heading towards the Beaufort & the CAA.
Maybe the sea ice extent and area losses will slow to a crawl - at least as far as the sensors are concerned..     
   
At the moment - losses slowing to a crawl - apart from the Beaufort & Central Arctic Seas (see next post)
_________________________________________         
Note: Click once on each image to see it full-size         

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