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Has the Atlantic front ever gone north of the eightyfifth parallel? It sur seems like it might this time round.
Thoughts on this as a new colour scheme?
Is it significant to see this much open water only 114 miles from 90N at this point in the season?
Is it significant to see this much open water only 114 miles from 90N at this point in the season?
That's a bit pedantic, Paul.
Okay it might be more consistent to stick with the one model, however scrollling through both ECMWF and GFS 2m anomalies over next few days both show very little +ve anomalies in the area BFTV has circled. (If anything I would say GFS is more often the warmer at the 2m level over the Arctic basin).
But this is distracting from the main point of my post - not to confuse 850hPa with 2m temps.
850hPa temps are of course very useful for other reasons. So I cannot be sure exactly what BFTV's intention was. It could be said for example that the high 850hPa's are indicative of the presence of high pressure over the area of thickest ice.
If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...
Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?
In general though, the current weather outlook should favour the sea ice but whether it will or not this year remains to be seen.
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.
Love what FRIZ contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.Geez, you're not a very pleasant fella now are you? It's FRIV, not FRIZ. Please don't misspell him, we love the guy and it hurts our feelings when you do!
Sibiria has always been hot in summer and cold in winter. Temps up to 45C are not uncommonReally?
I am sorry for the poor network. The red region means low albedo and wetter the surface. It is important for the melting momentum established.Arctic:
Can someone help me out with what I'm looking at here?
Ask this in stupid questions (it's not stupid at all though if you don't know Terra MODIS corrected reflectance satellite images, and the interface, NASA EOSDIS Worldview, Arctic view)
Another question is what Peter is trying to show apart from the obvious cloudiness over the Arctic. Ice surface wetness revealed by a more intense red?
Edit: there you go.
This is blatantly fake news. Cuomo's update has New York STATE's total deaths today at just over 200. The New York Times is literally now just entirely fake news.NYC deaths should be near zero in a week. We are already almost there.
May 8: Deaths in New York City ~500/day
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/23/upshot/five-ways-to-monitor-coronavirus-outbreak-us.html
Today's ACTUAL state-wide #s:
Deaths 216
NYC deaths should be near zero in a week. We are already almost there.
Me neither, Neill.This photograph, i believe, was created from Polarstern's bridge ~3 days ago, 28th April:Perhaps it rained, perhaps moisture, perhaps clouds. Let's see if we hear something from the Polarstern.
...
Maybe the excessive, unnecessary media and mass hysteria and fearmongering plays a role as well. But we'll never know, given that the majority determines what perceived reality is.
That graph is incomplete
Source? This is wild speculation. The reality is that the opposite is true. Deaths caused by c19 are significantly underestimated.
On 'some things' related to 'other things':
1. Deaths caused by C19 may be significantly over-reported in many countries,
as it is the killer that finishes an already sick (e.g. due to lifestyle diseases) person off, while the cause of death might be more correctly ascribed to some underlying disease the person had.
2. Deaths in nursing homes is underreported in most countries.
Staying at home keeps people from e.g. getting killed in traffic, or at work.
If we calculate YLL due to C19 we have to include these aspects as well.
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I'm watching the Austrian news tonight. For over 10 minutes they explained everything wrt how schools will re-open. It's absolutely insane what they are going to do to kids, to the point of abuse. All because of fear and control freaks who want to prevent being held accountable for anything. There is still so much irrational fear...
I'm not saying 'it's only/just the flu'. I'm saying that, epidemiologically speaking, it is much more similar to the flu than we were led to believe. Of course, there are differences, and there are still a lot of things we don't know, but they could go either way.
My problem is with narratives, especially now that data is pointing more and more to the needed context: a much lower IFR than initially projected, threat mostly if not exclusively for risk groups. Individually the disease is nastier than the flu, there is a higher chance of hospitals being overrun (although it happens with flu a lot as well, and that's because the medical system is underfunded), but from an epidemiological perspective, SARS-CoV-2 isn't radically different. It isn't what we've been led to believe, and are still being led to believe. The media and politicans, as always, are doing us a great disservice, which is why one always needs to be sceptical.My problem is that I believe your facts are wrong. An IFR of ~1% is much higher than the flu, maybe ~20 times higher, and this after requiring much higher rates of hospitalization and of ICU, and much longer hospital stays. And the virus is much more contagious to boot, including a lot of asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission. Thus lacking lockdowns and social distancing measures IFR could increase to 2-4% by overrunning the healthcare system in a much worse way than any flu ever did. The threat is not limited to risk groups and it does not only kill those who would have died in the next 3 or 12 months. Yes many of the dead are old people and about a third are those in care homes, but not all are old, and even those could have lasted another 3-5 years with good management.
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