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Messages - OffTheGrid

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 06:03:09 PM »
NSIDC Comparison tool, Arctic Ice Extent.  7 July 2020 vs same day in 2012 and in 2016.

IMO, 2020 stands out even more strongly now in terms of the comparatively massive ice losses on the Siberian side, and the relatively slower loss of ice from the Beaufort. 

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: June 24, 2020, 09:23:16 AM »
Holy smokes...  :-\

Click to play.

3
Some people have good use for the updated regional data files.

daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 01, 2020, 02:18:13 AM »
This is forecast for next Saturday made by the last five 12z runs. Now it’s converging and more assertive on a warmer prediction, but it has been switching between a couple of outcomes.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 02:53:47 PM »
I was talking about what is visible on Peter's image, but never mind, I get your point.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Yes. This year Beaufort sea surface is getting wetterr sooner than 2019 and little by little ice drift is showing open water,  a persistent Beaufort high early June is not good!!

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 01:47:07 PM »
Arctic:

Can someone help me out with what I'm looking at here?

Ask this in stupid questions (it's not stupid at all though if you don't know Terra MODIS corrected reflectance satellite images, and the interface, NASA EOSDIS Worldview, Arctic view)

Another question is what Peter is trying to show apart from the obvious cloudiness over the Arctic. Ice surface wetness revealed by a more intense red?

Edit: there you go.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:38:47 PM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 12 - 17

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:35:13 PM »
Further illumination can be found in the Nullschool Animations thread (where, they say, Freegrass is available to all):
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html

Hindcast: 9/8 to 9/12, Forecast: 9/12 to 9/16.
Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa [Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 12:26:23 PM »
How many people will be trying to get the screenshot of exactly 1 million reads today? I got this beautiful number already...

Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 996666 times)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 04:36:56 AM »
high splash.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 07:23:31 PM »
Unfortunately, by some the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

FIFY  ;)

I totally agree, the extent and area graphs are great for comparison, but you can only compare the extent and the area, and this is by far not the whole story.

Thanks to the ninjas who keep the data thread running anyway. :)
Don't thank us - thank NSIDC and JAXA and the satellites - while we've still got them.

Quote
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone?
Big Yellow Taxi- Joni Mitchell 1970

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab09b3
Quote
Passive microwave sensors have been routinely launched since 1987 and for many years multiple sensors have been in orbit. However, recent failures have reduced the number currently operating sensors and have significantly increased the risk of a gap in coverage in the next years.

AMSR-E failed in 2011, and the DMSP F-19 SSMIS failed in early 2016 after only two years of operation. In April 2016, the F-17 SSMIS started behaving anomalously and its data quality has been reduced. The suite of DMSP SSMI/SSMIS instruments has been the workhorse of passive microwave observations, but all currently operating (as of June 2018) SSMIS instruments (F-16, F-17, F-18) have been in orbit for at least 8.5 years, well beyond their design lifetime of three years (figure 1). The JAXA AMSR2 sensor, operating for a little over six years (as of June 2018) is the youngest passive microwave sensor, but it is now also past its design lifetime (five years). The only remaining sensor potentially ready to be launched in the near future (the DMSP F-20 SSMIS) has been cancelled.




13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 05:24:20 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
2019-09-11 09:00 UTC
2019-09-16 06:00 UTC

The latest temperature animation and more can be found here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html
With those winds the melting season might keep kicking the can for the rest of the week.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 05:14:12 PM »
We need to be focusing on the multi year ice, sea ice thickness  - not the "extent" data.

On that note, how's that multi-year ice doing in 2019?

Some "modelled" numbers via gerontocrat in the PIOMAS thread:





Recent thickness "measurements" will have to wait a while longer, but here's a map from the spring:

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 05:09:51 PM »
Unfortunately, by some the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

FIFY  ;)

I totally agree, the extent and area graphs are great for comparison, but you can only compare the extent and the area, and this is by far not the whole story.

Thanks to the ninjas who keep the data thread running anyway. :)


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 04:31:57 PM »
What's the official minimum then?

Currently, according to JAXA data, it is 4,158,349 km^2. Achieved on September 4th.

The extent data is misleading, at best.  The rank matters little - what matters is the sea ice thickness and the condition of the ice in general.

Unfortunately, the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

The sea ice extent is a dubious measurement, as highly fragmented slush should not be considered "extent", but it does seem to get included.  Therefore, the "extent" of the low quality single year ice of 2019 is compared against the "extent" of the multi year ice of, say 1995 - which is incorrect - it's comparing apples to oranges.

We need to be focusing on the multi year ice, sea ice thickness  - not the "extent" data.

On that note, how's that multi-year ice doing in 2019?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 02:20:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
2019-09-11 09:00 UTC
2019-09-16 06:00 UTC

The latest temperature animation and more can be found here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 10:03:19 AM »
September 6-10.

Looking at this, one might think there was an increase on the Atlantic side.

Big nope though. It's due to widening gaps.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 03:44:42 PM »
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs" thread?
Thanks Jim! That's a lot of information. The A-team really went for it...

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 01:40:21 PM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 09:00 UTC
2019-09-15 06:00 UTC

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 12:49:57 PM »
The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.
That's actually day and night that you are seeing. The trees must be the ones doing the breathing.

Quote
Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires.
That animation was posted by Cameron Beccario on his twitter feed, the man who created Nullschool. https://twitter.com/cambecc

I have to figure out now how to make such smooth animations. They're so well made.
I'm combining GIMP with EZgif now. I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 11:41:20 AM »
Time-lapse animation of 2019 Amazon rainforest fires visualized with carbon monoxide.

This animation is a one month time-lapse of carbon monoxide surface concentration, as modeled by GEOS-5. Fires begin to intensify on Aug 5th, 2019.


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 11:37:19 AM »
Animation of intense 2019 Siberian wildfires, visualized as carbon monoxide concentrations.

This two month time-lapse animation shows carbon monoxide surface concentration over Siberia, as modeled by GEOS-5, between June 1st and Aug 23rd, 2019.


24
Arctic sea ice / Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 10:48:34 AM »
I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.
Thanks for the kind words and your contributions Aleph_Null! Keep them coming! I've been using Nullschool for many years now, and I love it. I prefer these visuals over raw data any day. That's probably because I'm not a real scientist, and I'm pretty sure there are many more people like me on this forum; People without a masters degree that just want to know more about the climate.

Did you know Nullschool is an open source Github project?
https://github.com/cambecc/earth

I just changed the topic title to "Nullschool Animations", that way it includes forecasts, hindcasts, and specials. Or do you have another suggestion?

Again, thank you for adding to this thread! There are so many possibilities with Nullschool that I'm sure we can turn this into a valuable place.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:58:21 AM »
Wind + Temp @ Surface

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:10:15 AM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 09:48:33 PM »
Wind @ 250hPa Forecast

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 09, 2019, 07:43:52 PM »
You're welcome! Glad you like them!

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water Forecast

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:40:16 PM »
It's difficult to do good for everyone, so this is an elegant solution.

31
Arctic sea ice / Nullschool Forecasts
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:12:29 PM »
I will be posting my Nullschool animations here from now on.
I hope you Like Them! And don't be shy to post your own!

Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-09 09:00 UTC
2019-09-14 06:00 UTC

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