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Messages - igs

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Some time ago I posted regional snow extents, but the topic is kind of lost in the depth of the forum. After some minor improvements and adding two new regions in Asia I created a seperate webpage for the data. It makes it easier to analyse than several different forum posts.

On the snow-cover webpage, featuring snow maps I added the long term NOAA data since 1967. The low 200km resolution looks terrible compared to the new 24km, but the longer timespan is better to judge changes over time.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: July 23, 2020, 05:23:01 PM »
Would you like to open the NWP thread and/or poll for this year?

No sooner said than done:,3208.0.html

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:35:11 AM »
[quote author=Phoenix link=topic=3017.msg272304#msg272304 date=1594107461

OK...what is epic about the 10 day forecast? I see a temp forecast at 850 hpa. Google tells me this is generally about 1.5km above sea level, above the boundary layer.

If I open the GFS forecast and look what's doing in 10 days at sea level, I see the warm spots wherever this is open water in the forecast and all the ice covered areas are actually pretty mild ..


It's not as if you haven't been helped to understand the relevance of using 850hpa temps before ..
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.

But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.

The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.

Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.

Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful than surface temperatures.

This thread is for voting and explaining your vote, and is not intended as an opportunity to criticize others' choices or to convert them. If there was just one right choice, we wouldn't be needing a poll. Some people vote for their hope, some for their feared scenario, some for the most probable. It's up to them.

The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: May 31, 2020, 10:49:23 PM »
You won't have to move America to China, it's sufficent to move power and other assets while letting the hardware to rot where it is.

While I do not see Trump going to war with China like you, I agree with many of your points in general, details do not really matter in the analysis while of course they do matter during activities of various kinds.
"Moving America" was of course a figure of speech. It is like you say, just move intangible assets. They'll probably keep America as farmland, but I'm still thinking how they'll destroy their military power. The best way to do this is to bankrupt the nation. But with the US dollar being the global currency (which has also been changing for a while now) it's not easy to break them. I'm curious to see how that'll happen. A new pearl harbor is probably not the right option, as we've gone nuclear since then. And nobody wants a complete collapse I hope...

That's why I've created this thread. Let's keep an eye on this! Because that's where our focus should be.

So many uncertainties still, like how is London going sell a shift toward China away from the colony they lost? And why did they leave the EU now? Why did Gaddafi have to go? Because they needed to open the door for massive African migration that would surely destabilize Europe? Why does Europe need to be destabilized?

If Eurazia is the future, they'll need to move goods from east to west, and then you either need Russia, or Turkey. If Turkey, then you also need Iran... The silk road...

We're living in historic times, but look at antifa! Those are the bad guys now on US brainwash TV...  :-\

Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« on: May 21, 2020, 03:14:14 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: May 05, 2020, 09:05:38 PM »
concentration in this instance is a measurement of surface area and does not correlate to thickness or volume in any respect. Specifically it is the fraction of surface area that has ice in it per unit area.
Thickness is a measurement that is perpendicular to the surface area.
In real terms you can have 5m thick ice that only covers 3% of the surface

I can only bounce, thickness + surface area are strictly related to volume!
In your example "In real terms you can have 5m thick ice that only covers 3% of the surface" you have the same volume as 15cm thick ice and 100% surface area.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 01, 2020, 03:48:04 PM »
A seahorse in Greenland.

More here:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 14, 2020, 05:41:22 PM »
Early days but here is a look at Nico Sun's Albedo Warming Potential  Graphs.

The first graph shows the Cumulative Total anomaly & 2020 is off to am early start. The second graph shows how this early start is mainly due to just 3 peripheral seas - Okhotsk, Bering & Baffin.

The first graph also is a good demo of how the 2012 melt, being so late was not so effective in raising the AWP as in 2016 and 2019. With less warmth accumulated, 2012 saw a very rapid and early freeze, in contrast with 2016 and 2019. Remember the lack of freeze in October 2019?

Even if confined to the periphery, early melt must surely make a difference, though perhaps more to fall and early winter.

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 10, 2020, 11:52:11 PM »
Give the job to two/ three people you trust. 

Those who jump at the chance tend to be the wrong people for the job.

Better to have quiet, gentle moderation by consensus than someone wanting to make a name for themself.

The forum / Re: Neven's "TIP JAR"
« on: April 10, 2020, 04:08:12 PM »

At the right you have the atomic bombs counter below that there is an earth with four links in it.
Click on the top line Support & Donate.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: March 25, 2020, 10:08:02 PM »
All Horoscopes are the same today:


 :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 06, 2020, 07:04:04 AM »
Thanks philopek. I thought that '+1' means 'a like given' and I didn't see that in the totals beneath my profile photo. Perhaps I've missed it. It's not important at all.
Have a great day my friend.

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 05, 2020, 04:27:26 PM »
Thank you for your words.

Quote from: philopek
Where's my +1? ;)

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 05, 2020, 06:12:41 AM »
The voters will never hold them responsible in my estimate.

For that to happen, a critical investigative open and free media is required. People don't know and have been brainwashed with 'american' propaganda for decades. Most news channels are guilty of censorship and give a lopsided world view.

We in the E.U. tolerate Guantanamo Bay but our E.U. leaders have to mention human rights when visiting e.g. China.
It is a shame that we in the E.U. are on 'their side', subservant to the U.S.A.: The axis of evil (they started this modern episode with Little Boy and McCarthy I think).
People have already forgotten about the very shocking wikileaks and NSA revelations a couple of years ago.

Northern Netherlands:
Many tree branches already have quite developed leaf buds, as if expecting springtime soon.
A lot of bird sounds appeared in the past weeks which is a joy to behold for me after half a year of silence, sitting in the woods. They too may be welcoming spring and perhaps even start with an egg.

If freezing temperatures do arrive for a couple of days... the buds will die I expect and the birds may be in trouble with their eggs.
If freezing temperature don't arrive, the parasites and diseases won't get an annual die-off and get a big head start before spring season arrives.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: December 21, 2019, 07:13:36 AM »
Historic (in my view):

Civilisation's perverse population explosion was driven primarily by:

  • Religion historically (to this day) massively pushed for more births, more people, more influence and power for their religious group.
  • The idea of family in separate 'mother/father/house'-units takes away society-wide responsibility and planning of new members (babies). There is no limit on family size and because family-units are sub-groups in larger society, most won't be satisfied with just one child. Families' uncontrolled right to procreate without any planning or oversight from larger society. Uncontrolled and excessive growth.


  • Governments (commerce) are focussed on economic growth and want more consumers, more consumerists. More people = extra consumers = more growth.
  • Poor rural families in poor countries have a higher dead rate, no old-age pensions and tough manual labour. More hands means less work and more safety. Many grandchildren mean you are being cared for when you can't work yourself anymore.
  • Since late 19th century a dramatic decrease of civilisation's dead-rate through medical high technology (antibiotics etc.).

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 26, 2019, 08:19:41 PM »
Irrespective of ecological effects, based purely on geophysics, would a wall here help to preserve Arctic ice?

It would not preserve arctic ice, hence whether it would help to do so is irrelevant.

It would PERHAPS help to slow down the loss of arctic ice on that side but even that is not certain, who knows, perhaps we shall see high heat intrusion from the atlantic side and be glad that some of it can flow out there. (not saying it will be that way, just a possibility to consider due to our lack of understanding of the system as a whole.)

BTW the answer goes irrespective of ANY side-effects, there would be other than just ecological ones, this just as an aside.

The politics / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: November 25, 2019, 07:44:20 PM »
In self defense best practice would be to play dumb and pretend to cooperate and wait for the right moment to get rid of them.

Genuine cooperation with predators is suicide and fighing them as long as they are in a strong position is unwise.

People should be smart, not blunt and then the risk is that the idealistic illusionist think one belongs to them and is kissing their ass. That's a risk that is way smaller than the alternatives and anyways human-kind should learn to do less, the good and the bad, only to please others.

We should learn to think ethical and do what we believe is right because it'r right, not because we get bashed or earn disrespect otherwise or because we feel lonely, out of fear not to belong.

The herd of sheep running over the cliff following their leader is an old analogy that still is in full effect while openly refusing to run can be punished by the herd as well, hence it's important to run in the last row, watch them falling and make u turn just in time.

Looking a bit dodgy........

Anyone think the nature of the polar ice cap has changed ?

I think since we are, for the last few years, discussing more or less throughout the entire melting seasons, including late winter, about what we call; the "poor state of the ice" and/or "poor ice-quality", fragmentation and the likes, is exactly that what you mean and therefore I'm sure that most of us agree that the nature of the ice has changed significantly/dramatically and not too far in the future we shall probably witness an event/events that look like very sudden and shocking, while in fact this is the transition towards them events that we can see/feel coming.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 21, 2019, 09:00:53 PM »
Thanks for that philopek :). I'm thinking along the same lines.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 21, 2019, 06:54:56 PM »
I don't believe we've a lot of time left before were faced with a horrific catastrophe. I don't think it kills everyone, but I do believe it's the end of the of the civilization cycle that we're in. By the time hominids again reach a stage where space travel is possible they won't be Homo Sapiens any longer. Evolution leaps about after a "Great Die Off", and I think we're just about due for one.

Whatever succeeds us will have a much harder time making 'progress' than our ancestors had, simply because we've picked all of the low hanging fruit. It took us ~ 10k yrs. to get from the end of the old stone age (paleolithic), to where we are in an "information" age, but we did it with abundant coal, copper, and oil that was pooling on the surface, ready for use to seal early sailboats - before we discovered how valuable it could become as liquid fuel. The beasties that we father may even be brighter than ourselves, but they'll have none of our advantages and it will take them much longer (if ever) to reach our stage of development.

I think they'll reach a paleolithic level with no particular problems. (We did leave plenty of knappable rocks). But the neolithic will be more difficult with the lack of diverse species, the poisoning of large swaths of land, and much of the oceans still (hopefully) recovering. The copper age, bronze age and iron ages are steps that they'll need to circumvent, and it's difficult to imagine an industrial age without coal, copper or iron.

If they do follow our lead and look quizzically towards space, it will take many eons to get there, many more that it took our species, and we probably wouldn't recognize them as our descendants. We certainly wouldn't view them as being human.

Sorry about the rambling, but I craved a distraction from Spacex.

Agree 99% except that i'm an hopeless optimist ;)

hence I rarely lose hope entirely and certainly don't tend to give up on worthy goals.

Now the question remains, is our survival a worthy goal? I've got my doubts about that too unfortunately and this is not due to our environmental sins alone, but due to the reasons behind
our attitudes and doings.

Somehow we are the only animal that is smart enough to circumvent to many consequences for too long so that we not only are capable to extinct ourselves but the rest with us.

Hope dies last as most of times ;)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 20, 2019, 08:22:54 PM »
The regulations in place throughout Europe pretty well assure that the rush to the electrification of transportation won't be stopped regardless of who goes bottoms up.

Musk's companies could suffer, but EVs are here to stay, dammit.

Exactly my point and then perhaps it's worth to mention that many countries cities and provinces have already made their minds up and prohibit ICE cars relatively soon, some in increments, starting with diesels, other starting in cities and so on. But if you read the places where ICEs will be kept from being immatriculated and when, we can certainly tell that the age of ICEs is definitely over.

Parts you shall have to translate and parts are in english. I won't translate anything any longer because flawed translations distracted too much from the content in the past and i'm not willing to discuss translations when the topic is so much more important ;)

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 19, 2019, 06:32:28 PM »
With our current technology, I still reckon that for humankind - there is no Planet B
Raman !
It's not clear to me that manned interplanetary travel will ever take place.

This all depends what is meant with "ever"

While i think i get your meaning and ever is meant to say "any time soon" and i agree, ever is only right if mankind does not survive the next billion years.

I'm not trying to have an opinion, that would be somehow futile, whether mankind will be still around in 1 billion years, but IF "we" are still around we shall HAVE to go, before the great heat up and ultimate digestion of planet earth by the red giant the sun will become.

I'm not saying the number o 1B is a straight valid number, just an approximate time in time when we shall seriously have to do some building, developing and testing to be capable once we have to space travel to survive.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 18, 2019, 09:35:15 PM »
Hibernating Astronauts Need Smaller Spacecraft

They should know better:

Hybernation is only needed for very long interstellar flights and under such conditions shielding from radiation is one of the most important and most difficult tasks because mass/weight is needed to achieve it meaningfully/effectively and therefore, no matter what the disconnected task of hybernation asks for, smaller spacecraft can impossibly perform as far as protection from radiation is concerned.

In fact spacecraft for interstellar space travel at current tech standards have to be much larger and much heavier to shield the crew. Opinions differ but something around 2M of Rock or an equivlalent is needed and everyone can imagine the mass that means to accelerate as well as to decelerate, not even mentioning the ever larger amounts of fuel needed for every excess ton.

In case those guys try to be serious, they are a good example for what happens if we pick a problem and solve it without considering all other tasks/needs/problems that have to be
taken care of simultaneously.

Of course in case that we take another matierial than rock, the necessary volume would shrink not significantly so the mass/weight because all materierials that shield better than rock are heavier than rock.

My english skills do not allow to go much deeper into this, those who are more privy with the terms needed, like for example "specific weight" and more, can easily reproduce how heavy a shilding from i.e. lead would be, compared to rock/stone, not much difference in weight, only in volume.

Other solutions than "heavy matter" will consume huge amounts of energy, i.e. plasma or magnetic shielding, hence mass of matter will be taken by mass for fuel, no matter what kind and further going tech is not yet ready which is why i mentioned above "at current tech standards"

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 17, 2019, 09:34:45 PM »
It would be poetic justice for mankind if this frivolous lawsuit by impostor shareholders is the one thing that brings Tesla down, and with it, the transition to an electric world dies, and us with it.

The very idea that once Tesla is gone there won't be any ongoing electrification and the idea behind it that electrification, even though certainly better than ICEs, will save the world, is wrong, arrogant, biased and responsible for most of the blindness towards his/their business practices and financial conditions.

Tesla with their roadstar and later with the model S had a significant and very much relevant impact on development and awareness as well as acceptance of EVs.

That truth said, they are already losing ground, are financially looking into a deep abyss and Elon's business practices and attitude will be responsible for an eventual downfall of this promising former startup and now multi billion dollar business.

You stating to be a shareholder explains your bias while you don't do yourself and your fellow shareholders a favor by sticking the head under the sofa and believing not to be seen, the way how my cats are doing it LOL.

If you want to get the most out of your investment and the highest chance for Tesla and it's products to prevail and stand up against the mighty and growing competition, you will have to:

- see

- admit

- act upon (as a shareholder)


Almost everything pro Tesla in this thread is irrelevant from a business survival standpoint.
One cannot play with money infinitely, mathematics will prevail always as do the laws of nature and physics.

Every creature that acts against those and other non-debatable laws will ultimately fail and so do their achievements, technology, culture and all.

I won't debate the obvious, just come here from time to time to make a point and see what some of you shall name for an excuse once Tesla went for good.

It will be excuses along the line you just did, shareholder who claim their legal and absolute rights are responsible for the fail, not the man who made the decisions and/or influence the decisions makers under false pretenses.

BTW, ALL THE FALSE PRETENSES are the fraudulent part and what makes this a huge loss for shareholders, workers, societies who invested tax-funds and more while those of them who did
invest for greed i'm not feeling sorry for.

In short, EVs will prevail a s a major form of technology among Fuel Cells and Hydrogen with and without Tesla, so stop defending your investment with the fearmongering attitude that anyone who says something bad (but true) about Tesla is responsible for our all demise, what an arrogance and short-sightedness.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 14, 2019, 07:15:32 PM »
We have a Europe wide energy market though.

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.

There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.

I mean, especially for electricity. Which seems to be the point you are making.

Norway cant just sell its surplus hydro power to portugal. You believe in a world that doesn't exist. Maybe it should it should exist. Maybe we should advocate for it. But confusing that with WHAT IS, is childish, sad, and pathetic.

This time you are wrong, there IS an european grid and the norwegians CAN sell their surplus if there is any to portugal.

There even is an exchange for electricity and not only is it not "especially not for electricity" but on the opposite , it's "especially FOR electricity.

Be careful with such outright wrong posts because as long as you are using your famous wording (tone) you should be 99% right, else it's not tolerable.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 13, 2019, 08:22:30 PM »

There was so much slobbering on german media today that it's becoming quite
obvious that they will put a lot of public funds into the project and the hype
and expectations will keep things going for another quarter or two.

It's apparently a kind of ponzi scheme where to goal is to get subsidized as well
as keeping public attention and opinion high.

Only thing that is wondering me a bit is how and why he got the Chinese into the boat,
could be for technology transfer/know-how and the likes.

I'm really looking forward to all the angry and fake-surprised faces once the entire construct
is going to blow up into their faces.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 06:28:01 PM »

You can compare efficiency of vehicles that way but not efficiency of technology at all because to use the extremes as an example, the e-tron is an SUV and the model S is a streamlined coupé.

Further it depends if an OEM has a limited number of goals they want to or have to achieve in a certain segment or if they have to deliver on many more criteria like payload, trunk size, legroom on the backseets, noise levels etc.

What Oren said about technological advantages is in part true in others not, i.e the part about drag coefficient that i just explained depends on how many goals should be achieved that will need some compromises to get the targeted combination of features and criteria under one umbrella.

As to recuperation that is definitely not true because the optimization of common brakes with recuperation braking is not just about getting max energy out of it. That looks good on the spec-sheet but during a ride it's well worth to give some recuperation potential away for smoothness and safety.

This topic is quite complex and in parts prone to personal preference.

In about 5 years time Quality will have outperformed the simple basics the way like modern engines and build quality has started to outperform sheer power like in 7+ Liter displacement engines of the 60ies as compared to half or less the size ICEs in European and Japanese vehicles thereafter.

This post would become way too long to mention all the details which is why i say that we shall see such development and i cannot proof it today.

Only thing i suspect is that those who nowadays see Tesla through pink glasses will find all kind of lame excuses once the shit hit the fan.


Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 06, 2019, 09:27:34 PM »

Excuse the swearing sometimes blunt truths need blunt language.

Or blunt brainwashed and wishful thinkers ignorance.

Where I agree is that anything that is shaking people out of their comfort zone is good and NOT bad but as to the rest, it's a hypocrite hype and in about ten years she will be remembered as a person with good intentions and trying her best but abused by a hypocrite system and eventually muted or worse.

She is totally ok but the hype and abuse of that child and into what it will be resulting is NOT.

Unfortunately this kind of thing, if not understood by the average people, can only be confirmed in the aftermath when it's way too late.

I don't expect that you would remember my or rboyds words, hence will get back to you once things have happened (or not happened in this case) just that it will look like being righteous, but so what.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 06, 2019, 09:08:03 PM »
There is not one single significant component that is Tesla property and where Tesla is the patent holder.

Neither batteries (cells are purchased and assembled) nor magnets nor motors nor anything else.

On the other hand everything where Tesla claims a lead things are either nowhere near market readiness and/or mass production/sales in sight.

A good example would be FSD capabitlites, they are most probably close to a decade away from market introduction and anything that's needed for this to happen at all won't be TESLA patented or property but will be 5G and other technical developments that have nothing to do with TESLA.

Last but not least if those things come to fruitition there will be other companies who work on FSD like Daimler or Vokswagen/Audi who will suddenly be years ahead should the necessary ingredients be readily available.

For those who dunno anything but who like buzzwords and worshiping their gurus, without
interactivity between vehicles and eventually pedestrians there won't be any safe SFD in the near future because the array of sensors needed to sense and compute ALL necessary input, including the non-foreseeable, does either not exist, is to bulky or way too expensive.

Even if the prices will drop most probably due to higher production numbers that will take many years to reach a level where every cheapest and oldest vehicle that takes part in road traffic can be equipped and/or retrofitted with it and again, FSD only works if ALL participants are equipped with at least transmitting hard and software, else FSD capable vehicles will have to many blind spots in everyday's traffic.

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: November 04, 2019, 03:45:49 PM »
Johnstone on Syria:

"We were told that the US must intervene in Syria because the Syrian government was massacring its people. We were told that the US must intervene in Syria in order to promote freedom and democracy in the Middle East. We were told that the US must intervene in Syria because Assad used chemical weapons. We were told that the US must occupy Syria to fight ISIS. We were told that the US must continue to occupy Syria to counter Iranian influence. We were told the US must continue to occupy Syria to protect the Kurds. Now the US must continue to occupy Syria because of oil."

" arguing over which narratives are the correct ones rather than whether or not there should be an illegal military occupation of a sovereign nation at all. "

"It is not legitimate for the US empire to occupy Syria for any reason. At all. “Because oil” is not a legitimate reason. “Because Kurds” is not a legitimate reason. “Because ISIS” is not a legitimate reason. “Because Iran” is not a legitimate reason. “Because Russia” is not a legitimate reason. “Because freedom and democracy” is not a legitimate reason. “Because chemical weapons” is not a legitimate reason. And those who are driving this illegal occupation know it, which is why they keep shifting to whatever’s the most convenient narrative in any given moment."


Exactly, the only correct and ethical way to see it, great post IMO especially because it became so rare to simply say NO to illegitimate approaches, period, end of discussion, because there is nothing to discuss honestly, all discussions related to use of force under any non-defense circumstances are interest based and hypocrite.

Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet)


an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

and it's a real habit

Thanks for your observation Bernard :) (except the last sentence which is somewhat exaggerated)

Strange isn't it? They are not aware they are doing it I think.

The last sentence is not overstating the way I feel about it. There is a name for it : arrogance. And that's exactly the root of what is about to kill us all, along with a lot of our fellow living creatures.

Anyone with a clue about developments knows from the past and can currently see that:

- haughtiness comes before the fall

- downward vortex has started 2 decades ago to become obvious and doom is underway

reason why people mostly don't get it is very similar to AGW, process starts very slowly and it will take more than 150 more years and certainly a major collaps to teminate the process.

Has been like that before with all the well known and less known high-cultures/empires.

Measurements are only one of many indications of what has correctly been stated and BTW it does not only apply to that nation, it's just the falling height that is most painful if not deadly and with deadly I mean for a bigger part of the world unfortunately.

This is a painful process and MR. DONALD is a part of it. Or can anyone imagine that this could have happened 40-50 years ago ? NEVER EVER.

People dunno what to do to safe their dwindling customs and standards and The Donald is kind of a fake lifeline or the billy-goat that was made a gardener.

Even though I don't recommend to join the mostly amateurish thread on the topic of how to
prepare for collapse, i very much recommend to think about the topic because it won't take as long as many hope for the next stage to unfold.

I had not looked at the answers to this thread for months. I must say I am appalled by the level of answers to what seemed to me a quite serious question. The American-centric view of the world is proudly killing the rest of the planet.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 26, 2019, 05:48:10 PM »

But why does GSY say things like
This is so bizarrely incredible wrong, I don't know where to begin. You are delusional.

rather than providing some data or link(s) to back up his claim(s)? Don't you think that would be preferable to using perjorative words like delusional especially when providing no evidence?

Because he did/does that many times and never ever got a reply that referred to his posted proof.

I for one understand that sooner or later one tends to stop throwing pearls to the pigs.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 24, 2019, 12:29:48 AM »
Yes, the Finnish system has gone to hell with the latest renovations. According to most of my teacher acquaintances.
Would love to hear more from you about that, Pmt!
Not least as Finland has a kind of hero status among public school systems in the West. Seems everyone looks to you for at least some inspiration. So, what is "hell" now then?

That "Hero" status is mostly based on the so called "PISA" test that is a test that measures mostly how well kids get prepare to serve as tax paying middle class work horses.

Should that be the criteria I would certainly vote to circumvent public school system that among other flaws often serve as kind of "Stock-Taking" and stear the youngster as much as possible to become obedient puppies (cannon fodder in case of war and cash cows in times of peace)

Further one common flaw in any public school i have ever seen is that history classes mostly provide history with a bias.

This is especially interesting to see when comparing extremely different system like Chinese, Russion, U.S. or the various European history books. At times they tell an entirely different story which in case of conflicts is a dangerous thing.

Since I do not know the school system from "Luxembourg" I have nothing to  contribute there.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:36:44 PM »
Which Public School System ?

They are so distinct that the question is basically not possible to answer seriously.

I've been living on every continent and in 9 countries for longer than 12 months when our kids had to go to school still.

Some public school systems are so great that we chose them over private schools while others are so horrible that one either can afford to pay for private schools or home schooling or as responsible parents should let a job-offer go to avoid the effects for the children.

I suggest to change the title to something more precise, for example country or cultural background.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:29:41 PM »

Perhaps this can help avoid the to be expected discussion about changing speed of light while i think.

I was surprised to read that @GSY because for most people SoL is considered a "constant" while chances are high that only the Vmax is really absolute.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:17:30 PM »
Barrow webcam is on it's way back up to full service, just for those who are interested.

You have the visit their site and read the NOTE: to see what i mean ;)

The ASIG image does not represent the actual conditions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:09:57 PM »
Maybe the best solution would be for GSY to drop by once every quarter, after the results are published. During that day he can post whatever he likes, say whatever he likes (even that people are morons), troll, be trolled, and so on.

A bit like that movie, The Purge (haven't seen it, as I don't enjoy watching violence, but the premise is interesting).

How about it, GSY?

His statements are very precise and his questions as well, hence why should he be the one who has to make changes to his postings while the rest is simply copy pasting links and images from biased sources and mostly post in a manner with a lot of this:

Probably someone wrote a PM and complained and it does not matter much who is usually right and who is not. Names count a lot (who is who) like in the rest of the world which BTW none of the really evil things change, cumulated wealth for one or a meaningful price tag on pollution and CO2 emission etc.

As long as the guys with a benefit for the rulers vote for or against something the rulers follow suit or in other terms KTA.

As usual there is too much talk about persons instead of practical no-nonsense.

Due to never ending rivalry and group (herd) dynamics people have obviously trouble to discuss differing points of few without getting to offense and defense patterns.

One guy makes an esoteric statement based on good expertise, someone else starts to question a few extreme terms based on realistic views and the always present gooders found another reason to play their role as good hearted defenders of the poor.

Result, everything useful on the topic has been suppressed and the bickering goes on for pages to come.

We all know that @sark knows what he's talking about while my thought was what he threw in before posting, 2 whiskies or 2 joints.

This is not offending, it's just that the terminology needed to get used to and it's totally legit to tone down to a more factual level without disregarding the good intention and the valuable core of the content.

It's those who think they're entitled to fall into defense mode and defend themselves and everyone does not receive pure acclamation. It's basically the root of leftism that is well meant but will never work because we cannot afford to push the weak up and pull the strong down.

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 16, 2019, 02:54:58 PM »
The CryoSat-2 image is from the laser thingy?

IceSat-2 is "the laser thingy". CryoSat-2 is the "interferometric radar range-finder thingy":

It's a "measurement" of sorts, but still has to make assumptions about snow thickness to turn freeboard measurements into sea ice thickness numbers.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:15:24 PM »
Google Translate?

Yes and there are few turns and tweaks but when reading it again, I thought that it is well enough translated so that I don't have to rewrite the entire article from scratch into 5 languages of all the fora where i posted it.

Does it matter would be my next question?

If imperfect translations are not welcome I won't post any further translated articles of course, it was not my intention to offend native english speakers with bad translations.

I thought this could be welcome because it not only points into the right direction that will be a tech-mix depending on use cases, but it's also something I'm preaching for years to all the one sided and/or narrow minded folks who choose and favor one approach, make it a religion and
discard any other, often under false pretenses.

Last question, just in case that it's ok to use google translator to translate lengthy text, why mention it, it sounds a bit condescending while for me translating tools are a gift for better sharing across language barriers.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:07:22 PM »
Shock News!!!

I said it many times already, to tell the truth has become one of the biggest crimes nowadays and it is by no means restricted to online communities but is favored by all governments and their puppet institutions (or vice versa)

Not so long ago people were hung or burned have they been telling unpleasant truth to the average people.

Nowadays we are neither burned nor hung but our reputation is damaged and we're ridiculed, mostly and unfortunately by people who on a first glance seem to be just and honest and fighting for
good causes.

Political correctness is one of the results and US-President Truman already had his say about it upon his Admiral reported to him about Pearl Harbor.

None of us is perfect of course but those allegations are indeed far from anything I would have
guessed possible as far as @Jim is concerned.

I certainly do not consent with every thing he has to say which certainly is mutual and totally normally the case but IMO it's quite obvious who knows what he/she is speaking about an whether the intention is evil or just.

In my opinion we all err and are allowed to err in the process of learning as long as our intentions
are just, hence it's the meaning and the intention that makes things evil or just, else they're simply right, wrong, personal preference or relative.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 15, 2019, 04:14:23 PM »
E-car platform with fuel cell option
In addition to MEB and PPE, the VW Group is developing a third electric car kit that can also be equipped with a fuel cell. For luxury cars and commercial vehicles.
VW boss Diess does not want to know much about hydrogen cars yet and is officially fully committed to battery electric vehicles (BEV). In a first wave, the Group wants to build 15 million electric cars based on the modular electrical construction kit (MEB), for more powerful vehicles (more than 306 hp), Audi and Porsche jointly develop a second kit, the Premium Platform Electric (PPE). But the development of a vehicle architecture that can draw its energy not only from batteries, but also from a fuel cell, is already running. It is called Modular Platform Electric (MPE).

"The VW Group is developing a modular platform e-mobility for our cars from the B-segment upwards, which can be used across all brands," said Michael Jost, Head of Strategy of the Volkswagen brand and Group Strategy Product, the Automobilwoche.

Building set with overlaps?
This sounds confusing at first, because so far the Modular Electrical Box (MEB) for cars up to the B segment (middle class, comparable to the VW Passat) as well as the Premium Platform Electric (PPE) were known, which Porsche developed together with Audi. At the MEB stands the ID.-family; the first is the ID.3, which should roll to the first customers from 2020 onwards. The PPE should be ready for series production in 2023. First comes the first PPE Porsche, the successor to the Macan. Audi uses the PPE not first for an SUV, but for a four-door coupe, the size of an A5 Sportback. Internally, the Ingolstadt designate the competitors for BMWs i4 as E6.

The PPE should also carry more, larger and stronger vehicles, so cars from the B segment, perhaps even the successor of Audi E-Tron GT and Porsche Taycan, although technically largely identical, but not based on a separate kit.
New architecture is fuel cell compatible
So if PPE and MPE are both meant for cars from the B-segment, what's the difference? Apparently, the MPE is also intended for the use of fuel cells. For in the Automobilwoche Jost also relativized the negative attitude of VW CEO Herbert Diess to the fuel cell: "In the long run, roughly estimated at the end of the next decade, hydrogen is additionally considered as an energy source for electrically driven vehicles." And further, Jost said about the MPE: "Scalability extends not only to the length or width of the cars, but also to the application areas of volume, premium and luxury."

The fuel cell is needed for all vehicles that are particularly heavy (and correspondingly strong) or that should be able to get very far. Say: luxury cars, but also commercial vehicles. This fits Jost's description of the platform, whose "scalability extends not only on the length or width of the cars, but also on the application areas of volume, premium and luxury".

Both luxury travel cars and commercial vehicles save the fuel cell huge and heavy batteries. At the moment the ID.3., Whose smallest battery has only 48 kWh capacity, weighs about 1.700 kilograms. Current e-cars the size of an Audi E-Tron or Mercedes EQC weigh even more than 2.5 tons. With the largest battery that the kit allows (111 kWh), an MEB car would also come in well over two tons. The practice range would still not be much higher than 500 kilometers.

This is easier to visualize with the fuel cell drive, the fast refueling of 400 to 500 kilos reach by filling the hydrogen tank would be added.

Audi plans fuel cell hybrid
The development of the hydrogen drive is located in the Volkswagen Group at Audi - the MPE would then probably get fuel cells from Ingolstadt, without the new kit would be intended only for the Ingolstadt. Specifically, the development of MPE platforms for commercial vehicles is hardly imaginable for the Ingolstadt, the fuel cell already. In 2018, Audi already announced a patent exchange for Hyundai fuel cell technology, which should accelerate the series development, and announced a luxury-class SUV with fuel cell as the first Audi small series from the beginning of the next decade, ie from about 2021. Hans-Joachim Rothenpieler, Development Board in Ingolstadt, also confirmed at the beginning of July (2019) that Audi is working intensively on fuel cell hybrids. "The combination of hydrogen and battery electric drive is an interesting option for large cars that are used on long distances - about 600 to 800 kilometers".

The combination could be more or less hybrid designed: A battery needs each fuel cell car to cache the hydrogen generated electricity. But enough for less than 5 kWh. Larger batteries can serve as in the Mercedes GLC F-Cell to drive purely electric and then recharge them on the grid - so that would be fuel cell hybrids in most user profiles for the vast majority of time like an e-car on the road, the fuel cell would be used only on longer distances.

It would also be conceivable, however, to always put the fuel cell into operation while driving and to take the energy for the engine out of the battery, because it can cope better with the spontaneous power requirements for brisk acceleration maneuvers. And every intermediate stage is also conceivable, depending on the size of the battery. The larger the battery, the more the vehicle can recuperate (generate electricity with excess kinetic energy).

A plugin hybrid, which is as much as possible with mains power in the battery, carries the expensive fuel cell technology most of the time for free. If only the fuel cell charges the battery, the losses in power generation are accepted at any time during operation.

From "either or" (battery-electric vs. fuel-cell), in the future more and more will become "both and" - in the same vehicle type, but not all. Accordingly, in the future there could be purely battery-powered cars for shorter distances and travel or commercial vehicles, which also have a fuel cell on board. The concept could also change in the future - from plug-in hybrids that use hydrogen only for longer distances or fuel cell cars that need the smallest batteries for buffering and recuperation. In between are vehicles that use batteries in the size of today's plug-in hybrid models (about 15 kWh) as a fast, powerful power supply and supply this mainly with the fuel cell. They should drive like BEV, but could refuel like cars with combustion engine today.

Audi develops within the Volkswagen Group on the fuel cell drive, VW on a scalable construction kit (MPE) for it, based on the luxury travel cars larger than today's Passat, but can also be based on commercial vehicles. While the first models will be rolled out on the premium platform Electric (PPE) 2023 jointly developed by Audi and Porsche, MPE cars are expected to be available from 2030 onwards

Should we use hydrogen in the future?
Definitely! The fuel cell combines potentially CO2-free driving and range for refueling.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 14, 2019, 07:48:13 PM »
I'm all about mechanics and engineering.

I'm all about electronics, computing and engineering, and I have to agree with you that GSY's unsubstantiated allegations concerning our IQ should be taken as a compliment from someone unable to win "the argument"!

He is frustrated and is using unwise terminology at times. Had he only said many instead of "everyone" that would still be sufficiently offending but at least in the reach of the possible, while and since my own IQ has been tested many times and a few people here are obviously extremely gifted, that statement by GSY is an unfortunate overshoot, hence wrong. This is unfortunate because his arguments are mostly either totally valid and at times even simply correct.

It's a pity GSY, you don't need to go there but I feel with your frustration while I learned to
first understand the facts of human behavior and attitudes and this way smile more often than getting frustration that way.

BUT more often does not mean it works without fail haha...still losing my temper way too often ;)

And JIM i know you mean similar but to be fair, it's not possible to win an argument against:

- people who have illusions
- people who make topics a religion (believe)
- people who stop reading and listening to anything that goes against their believes (religion)
- fanboys
- ignorants  who are not aware that they are
- people with the Dunning-Kruger effect which is often obvious in this thread

Don't argue with insanes, they pull you down to their level & beat you on their home playground, you can't win

Something that I like to repeat is that the


have never had issues to unite, build up a single front against the rest until they reached
their evil goals and they tend to split and fight for their part of the cake after they got
in control or got what they wanted, while

Those with GOOD Intentions usually split their forces in tiny nitpicking starting at the very
first stages of finding ways. They rarely can build a strong counter party against the evil
doers except shortly before overrun and eliminated entirely. Only once the good people are
force into combat mode themselves are they willing and ready to wipe the evil doers of
the landscape and once that point is reached they usually prevail because they combine
a higher resource of intelligence than the simple minded faschists and criminals of the world.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 07:23:50 PM »
I'm not sure if volume is actually lowest.. that graph is missing 2012.

But i'm totally sure because volume has been almost on 2012 level at minimum when extent was many hundred thousand of km2 higher than 2012 and obviously now that extent is lower than 2012, volume is lower than 2012 by quite some margin.

Of course I'm aware that are is still above 2012 but a fraction when compared to what the difference was at minimum when volume of 2019 was very close to 2012 as mentioned above.

We are lowest in volume now and that we are by a lot IMO.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 14, 2019, 01:07:44 AM »
Still you should leave those years there. Well-intentioned mods as yours can give deniers arguments as much as discussing a hiatus. The statistical tendency backed by almost 40 years is clear without needing tweaks.

Also a good and valid point but you know what?

While this will take nothing away from your reasoning (not kidding) one of the ways a denier
is distinguished from a realistic and honest thinker is, that it does not matter what we tell them.
because they DENY facts ;) ;)

In other words, your point is valid and Gero's point is valid, and the results are very close and the tendency is obvious (even without tweaks) but since a denier denies ANY valid point, there is no
point in spending a lot of time and energy to find out which of all the valid points we want to
present to a DENIER to DENY ;)

[half kidding but true nevertheless]

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