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Messages - The Walrus

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: February 19, 2021, 06:22:09 PM »
I predict the professionals who predict ice futures in June [and/or July ...] (averaged) will err by expecting more September Arctic sea ice than the September reality (as published by the professionals) while we (the ASIF folks who vote in forum polls, averaged) will err by expecting less.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 18, 2021, 08:25:25 PM »
It's fine here, too (middle of nowhere BC) - this is the lowest amount of snow we've had at this time of year in the 15 years or so that I've been living here.

Also, LOL Comradez - I had the same reaction to that post...  ::)  :o  ;D
Most of Canada has been pretty dry during this cold event - but when it gets too cold I thought that stopped snow from falling, and the front of the Polar Vortex has mostly been wandering across the Lower 48?

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 18, 2021, 03:55:32 AM »
If you are not actively fighting for equality, you are part of the problem.
I agree with most of what you say, but not this part.

A week or two ago I read a rather sneering article about Louis Armstrong. Apparently fighting Eisenhower over segregation wasn't enough. He should have been spending every waking minute fighting racism, instead of enjoying his music, smoking pot and smiling a lot. Not everyone is cut out to be a full-time activist. There are other ways to get the message across.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 14, 2021, 11:49:21 PM »
Trump acquitted.
Gulty 57  Not guilty 43

America's reputation amongst those who cling to hope for the survival of democracy in the world slips down another notch.

Those in power in the world who regard democracy and accountabiluty as merely irritations to be swept aside take comfort in the verdict.

There is more than one form of collapse.

How silly, the only people trying to end Democracy are those trying to curtail free speech and those who think an International Press , dedicated to the idea that Leftist viewpoints are all correct and must be protected at all costs is the only way to go.
They think by controlling the dialogue and crushing all opposition they are protecting Democracy, it’s exactly the opposite and it’s a shame you don’t get that.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 13, 2021, 07:30:13 PM »
Not so Lefty has a line of thinking about the rich and trikle down economics that has been proven wrong time and time and time again.

It is simple to prove wrong.... the rich are getting richer in the US while the poor are getting poorer.
That lovely pie you talk about may be getting bigger, (which is also stupid given we live on a finite planet.... but lets ignore that flaw of logic as well) but the rich take almost all of the extra bits leaving the poor with less per person.

Here is a little article to read to explain this in the current situation...

What you call the so-called poor when I was a child, pretty much doesn’t  exist anymore.
Nobody is hungry, the problem for the poor in America is too much obesity, everyone has a cell phone and the Internet and in my area, everyone wears $150 sneakers LOL.
the worst cars used by the poorest for transportation work better, ride better and need less maintenance than the cars of the past.
Over 60% of Americans own their own homes which means there is more home ownership now then there were people in the country before WW2.
I live in a suburb of NYC and all I see are young people , who went to college, got married, choose a profession where they actually get paid, are having children and are buying homes that over time will add value and become a retirement fund.

my grandfather came here from Europe in 1918 right after WW1.

He was destitute and didn’t speak English but a distant cousin “ sponsored” him , which meant he guaranteed my grandfather wouldn’t use public assistance, medical debt, get in legal trouble, etc.
after three years of eating just enough to live, while working three jobs, he was able to bring over my grandmother and their daughter who was then 4.

He eventually opened his own business , made a decent living working 10 hours a day and raised 4 sons who went off to fight in WW2 instead of attending college.
Those brothers started as peddlers then opened their own business and my cousins and I were able to to attend college and we have mostly all done very well.

my three children are married have three children each and own their own homes in an upscale suburban area which they purchased themselves, not with my help.
What is the point of my story?
It took 100 years for my family to get to a place where everyone is financially “ OK”  , stable.

The American dream is not and never was Free Medical for all, it was and should be the country that no matter how poor and/or uneducated you might be   you can lift yourself up by your own bootstraps and become anything you want through hard work and determination.

Seems like today, people come here , demand everything free, go to school , major in Lesbian dance theory and Leftist ideology , don’t get married, raise children out of wedlock and then complain that the rich are getting richer when they don’t put themselves in a position to make a decent living.

Duh, compound interest is mans best friend, not the dog, the older you get the more wealth you attain just by living and having a plan.

Of course trickle down works, we are a consumer society if the middle class , upper middle class and very rich are spending & creating, people have jobs , trickle down has always worked, the problem is, since the leftists and Globalists joined up a lot of the wealth has been trickling down outside the country , which is why 75 million people supported Trump.

Lockdowns Have Devastated the Global Poor
In particular, developing countries likely do not have the same support structures be it private or public as countries like the United States do. They cannot simply print trillions of dollars to finance quantitative easing policies to prop up the stock market or send stimulus checks to ailing citizens. They also likely lack the private safety nets created by nonprofits and the general flexibility of an advanced business sector. One can only imagine the damage economic depression would bring upon such communities.

U.K. Economy Suffers Biggest Slump in 300 Years Amid Covid-19 Lockdowns
Lockdowns in Britain contributed to the largest contraction of the world’s major economies in 2020

Housing market is a little bit special because houses for rent are mainly built when prices are high, so low prices stop new constructions for rental until prices go up again.

In the US, no one is legally allowed to get evicted for non-payment.  A certain portion of the entire US population is living for free, no rent, no mortgage - free housing.

They say the eviction moratorium is to stop the spread of the virus, but that's a lie.

The real reason is because if they ever lift the moratorium, the 3rd world status of the US will be more obvious.  Massive homeless populations, and massive poverty rates would ensue.

Re: The poor always among us.
Fair, free, equal - Pick two.

Continuing problems with mail delivery
Maryland lawmakers are urging leaders of the United States Postal Service (USPS) to fix mail delivery problems they say continue to plague the USPS well after the holiday rush has ended.

Chicago mail problems mount, US lawmakers get involved
For its part, in a statement to ABC 7, USPS apologized for the inconvenience, blaming COVID-19, weather conditions, and short staff, although a cursory search on the USPS website shows no or few Chicago jobs open. Residents are still left waiting.

The UK may not be in a double-dip recession, but it will feel like it
Slowdown toward end of 2020 will be followed by slump in output in first quarter of 2021

Euro zone in double-dip recession, recovery risks to downside: Reuters poll
The euro zone economy is in double-dip recession amid lockdown restrictions due to a resurgence in coronavirus cases, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who said the risks to their already weak outlook was skewed more to the downside.

How The Pandemic Recession Has Affected Housing Insecurity
For American Indicators, NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with Lee Camp, a St. Louis attorney who represents tenants, about how the pandemic recession has affected housing insecurity.

Renters Are Getting Evicted Despite 'CDC Eviction Ban' — 'I'm Scared'
Sheila Ambert has finally found another job — scheduling people for COVID-19 vaccinations. And some of her long-delayed unemployment benefits have come through. So she has the money to start paying rent again.
But the landlord is still trying to evict her. And she says that's making it very hard to find another apartment.

Looming Wave of Evictions in San Diego County Due to Pandemic Pause
NBC 7 found that between March of last year and January this year, there were more 2,204 eviction petitions filed with the court

With eviction avalanche looming, court documents fail to ensure due process for tenants | Editorial
A flaw in the Philadelphia eviction system uncovered by this board in July and yet to be addressed is set to make an anticipated avalanche of evictions more harmful and disruptive.

Moratorium Set to Expire With Backlog of Thousands of Pending Evictions
Thousands of tenants are on the verge of eviction because of the pandemic. NBC 7’s Alexis Rivas has more.

Oklahoma bill that would prevent courts from halting evictions during a pandemic passes House committee
The bill is authored by Rep. Tom Gann, (R-Inola). It would prevent courts from halting evictions, even in the event of a health emergency, like the pandemic.   

Judge grants eviction against St. Peters woman too sick from COVID-19 to be allowed in courthouse
Legal expert says the courts face an eviction "tsunami" even with a CDC order in place to keep people in their homes.

Schools teach kids and feed them. As hunger rises, Colorado is racing to ensure kids eat this summer.
“So I think there’s a really, really significant need now that didn’t exist with these levels prior to COVID,” said Ulric, implementation director at the Colorado Blueprint to End Hunger, which aims to eliminate hunger in Colorado in the next four years.

The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 12, 2021, 01:55:00 AM »
Re: Context of Life Expectancy
How much of that is because the US makes Herculean efforts to save inviable babies who die a few days after birth, lowering life expectancy, while other countries just let them die and do not count them? Or is that "fake news"?

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 08, 2021, 01:14:49 PM »
I am certainly not alt-Right.
But am I Right or Left?
I am "Right" on right-to-life.
I am "Left" on environmentalism
I am "Right" on transgenderism.
I am "Left" on immigration.
I am "Right" on same sex marriages.
I am "Left" on racial equality and helping minorities get ahead.
When a pollster calls and asks if I am Conservative or Liberal, I keep saying "Catholic". It drives them nuts.
I do not agree with either political party.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 03, 2021, 12:26:59 AM »
>more and more open water in summer
>atmosphere over cracked up ice ... some day we are going to get a steady drizzle

What make you think these are not gradual processes slowly encroaching further into the Arctic applying throughout the period of record and into the future, and instead are going to pick up in importance in some future period to cause a noticeable acceleration in ice loss?

One is physics.

Open water. If a large stretch of water opens up earlier in the year it will soak up more heat during the summer which will make it harder to freeze when next winter comes. Then there is also a chance of storms mixing up heat from below which increases with the time we have open water during summer.

This is an accelerating process because it further hinders the overall growth of ice and in the HCO it it is the most plausible mechanism for the quick climate flips.

We can also turn the argument around.

Why would you expect this current system to be stable? If we just went through an event which flushed out the big ice then why on earth would that same process fail to flush out much thinner ice in the long term?

The key metric is volume and ice grows from ice. Prolonged open water is what will allow mixing up heat from below at some point. You can go by spreadsheets or think about the physical processes going on.

>If a large stretch of water opens up earlier in the year
This of course has been going throughout last 20 years.

>make it harder to freeze when next winter comes
Heat does build up when there is open water. But come winter open water loses heat much faster. Extent is possibly delayed by a month over last 40 year but winter is longer than a month and given the much faster rate of heat loss through no or thin ice there is quite a bit of time to mostly catch up. Of course this has also been going on throughout last 20 years.

>a chance of storms mixing up heat from below which increases with the time we have open water during summer.
A lot of open water for a long time does seem to offer much more chance for storms to stir up heat. So I think I should admit there is possibility of accelerating effect here. I did wonder whether to argue that we are already giving extra chance of stirring up heat around the edges so this effect is already built into the slow rates of decline before and after the naughties. Perhaps not fully built in and unfortunately I am not sure of the size of this effect - does a storm stir it up everywhere or is it fairly limited to ekman pumping only near the centre of rotation? How significant will this be?

>If we just went through an event which flushed out the big ice then why on earth would that same process fail to flush out much thinner ice in the long term?

I explained that the thick multi year ice if thinned does not regrow in winter. Thin ice if melted out does largely regrow in winter. This is quite different from 'flushing out'.

Since you mention flushing out, have you looked at what happens to remaining MYI from one year to the next? There are big losses in the naughties. Since then one year it may look like it is nearly at point of being flushed out the fram, next year it bounced bach to being more abundant nearer Beaufort. Another year it look like beaufort gyre is about to flush it into Beaufort sea but the next year it bounces back to being more abundant nearer Greenland, another year it may look like the 5 year old MYI is down to a tiny thin strip so perhaps the oldest MYI is going but then it bounces back to a much thicker strip.

This bouncing back makes it quite clear that the MYI is down to a new much lower equilibrium level compared to before 2000. So any losses of this MYI is now slow and the FYI largely grows back each winter.

There are still losses but these are at a slow rate compared to the fast rate when we were losing thick MYI.

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:08:49 PM »

Fracking for optimal geothermal outputs may be what is on his mind...
Or maybe Biden's mind is on the 2022 mid-term elections? Remember the Democrat results down-ballot did not live up to the hype in November. Republicans could easily get the House back. Lose the House and his presidency will only have one year max to make a big difference.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 25, 2021, 09:57:29 PM »
Looks like somebody sacrificed the population to let Trump look bad. Archimid, you bad boy, was it you ?

Birx said that her efforts to advise then-President Trump about the pandemic were complicated by people presenting him with "a parallel set of data." [... Alternate facts?]

"I saw the president presenting graphs that I never made, so I know that someone - or someone out there or someone inside - was creating a parallel set of data and graphics that were shown to the president. I k

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 23, 2021, 04:59:45 AM »
if you use the word "hiatus" then you have an agenda, nothing innocent there. Especially if you have a history of this kind of discussion.

Sorry, shouldn't have used 'hiatus' if i knew it was so controversial. Could have used 'interregnum' instead :) Where the El Ninos seem to be the rulers, at least in short terms.

My agenda is just that i'm learning all i can about climate. Currently, i've become more interested in the natural variability of the climate, and how it relates to general trends.

The forum is about an exchange of information and thoughts, that's a great learning experience to be able to have such discussions. Thanks!


I am pleased to see someone else argue optimistically that BAU has changed dramatically. Too many around here believe in climate catastrophe is imminent.


Being realistic is not equivalent to expecting climate catastrophe. I, for one, am quite cynical about politicians, but at the same time expect humanity to completely give up fossil in due time. I expect no catastrophe whatsoever. But I expect decades of warming still, because going to zero carbon is a very long process.

- 95% of cars sold in 2021 are using gas/diesel. Those cars will still be on the roads in 2050 (in India, Africa, etc).
- many industrial processes are hard to decarbonise
- gas turbines are needed to counterbalance volatile solar/wind
- newly built coal plants will NOT be closed for a long time (at least a decade) due to sunk costs

Will emissions start to go down some time in the 20s? Hopefully yes (but considering that oil will at least be stable, gas will go up, coal down and industrial and agri likely up that is not sure at all). Shall we hit zero by 2030-40? Absolutely not. Not even by 2050.

2015-20 warmed +0,29 C vs 2005-10. Considering Arctic feedback, it is hard to see how that will not be more in the next decade, since emissions are higher now than 10 yrs ago. We are already +1,2 C above pre industrial. This means that by 2030 we shall hit at least +1,5 C. If you are optimistic then you can argue that warming will slow after this, so maybe +0,2 C and +0,15 C and +0,1 C the following decades. This still means that we will reach around +2 C by 2060 - provided that there are no sudden climate impacts.

I don't think this will make the Earth unlivable. I even think that it will be positive agriculturally for many NH midlatitude countries as they will warm by another 1,5-2 C.


The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: January 20, 2021, 08:22:42 PM »
FG, you should only post when sober. (I assume).

No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 16, 2021, 07:11:28 PM »
I mostly ignore the original poll on this thread, but it's been a year (13-14 months?) from when the epidemic started with 'reported' worldwide COVID-19 deaths exceeding 2 million, and with probably an additional 1 million of 'related' deaths, aka (additional) excess deaths, I had a look. Nearly half of us underestimated the long-term consequences.

The various threads on the ASI Forum do not tend to predict things very well, but there is a chance our 'average' will come to pass in this instance.  (In other words, I'm ready for the virus to die, disappear or otherwise become harmless.)

The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 07:30:59 PM »
I don't think Trump can rise to power ten years from now, FrostKing70...he's too old. The one we have to look out for is some Joe Shmoe character who is a Governor or Senator, or maybe even less known personage, who will rise to power as the 99% get poorer and more desperate.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2021, 02:10:57 PM »
Jaxa Data - a bit more

Antarctic Sea Ice - How average can it get?

The plume shows the erratic nature of extent change over the years.

I attach the graph of the current estimate of the January monthly average. As you can see, the linear change trend is an enormously SMALL 811 Km2 gain per year with an R2 value of 0.00. At 4.7 million the average would be about 200k below that meaningless trend, or more meaningfully about 200k below the 42 year January average.

Meanwhile, the 365 day trailing average is going up - and possibly in around 2 months will reach the 42 year average of 11.6 million km2.

After 42 years of ups and downs one ends up back where one started, But AGW has happened, the AIS is losing mass. But Antarctic sea ice extent does not seem to be a nice simple metric on which to track the impact of AGW.

Tor and El Cid:
You seem to make calculations where forcings are linearly related to emissions, or to concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.
However, forcings from CO2 are logarithmic.

"The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic, at concentrations up to around eight times the current value, and thus increased concentrations have a progressively smaller warming effect."

Thus, with flat emissions, the forcings will slowly decline. The decay function for CO2 is central for the argument.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: December 30, 2020, 12:11:10 AM »
If the 2921 melting season does not at least equal that then a new record low is indefinitely postponed.
Maybe not "indefinite", but 900 years is a long time!

The forum / Re: Merry Christmas everyone.
« on: December 26, 2020, 07:20:50 AM »
Merry Christmas all. ;D
The spirit of Christmas is giving to others but not always things and not always to people you know. Think random acts of kindness. Call people and tell them how much you appreciate them.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 23, 2020, 08:40:54 AM »
RE:Dickson (and Siberian Islands) high temps during autumn, early winter

I think we have a new pattern here (my pet theory). With the Siberian seas melting early, then warming up and accumulating huge amounts of heat during summer, they can not freeze until Nov/Dec. The huge open seas are very much warmer than surrounding landmasses, so cold pours into this "warm gap" , warms up and rises, creating a huge low pressure system. I think that in the future there will be an 'Arctic Low" instead of the classical Icelandic Low due to this. (I theorized about this before, but this year) we finally saw this happening during October/November. This low creates wind patterns that "protect" Dickson. See schematic picture...

My conclusion: this will likely be a regular feature in the following years

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 20, 2020, 08:04:00 PM »
El CID,      El Niño , La Niña , and the PDO warm and cold events all have predictive value of precipitation for different regions. But I don’t see any models that accurately predict any of them two or three years in advance , let alone decades in advance, so any model predictions of long term precipitation will be flawed by where we are in any one of the cycles mentioned above. Cold or warm water PDO events can last multiple decades so model predictions of precipitation will only be accurate in very long term averages and since we farm on annual availability of rains I would much prefer better predictive values to the Ninos and PDO. Our average precipitation over century scales is interesting but not very useful considering the very likely heating involved on century scale timelines.

As a farmer you are most certainly right. What I pointed out is that models don't even get right average precipitation rates (which we know quite well from a number of sources) even 5-10 thousand years ago, so we can not expect them to have the ability to forecast future precipitation patterns.
The variablity of precipitation is of course another huge unknown and as you say is possibly more important for agriculture especially in climates with unstable and/or very seasonal rain patterns.

"Forecasting is difficult especially when it concerns the future."
Pierre DAC
 ;D    :-X

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 16, 2020, 08:29:17 AM »
As climate models can not even "backcast" localized Holocene Optimum conditions (especially precipitation, eg Europe, Green Sahara, Fertile Crescent etc.), I have not a bit of confidence in them saying anything about future California winters.
In my opinion it is much more useful to study Eeemian and Holocene optimum conditions to judge what is likely to come

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 09, 2020, 09:01:40 PM »
Oh, and before you think that maybe Zimbabwe is not very good for agriculture, let me show you its climate (ie. the climate of Harare, its capital). This is the most perfect climate for man (no wonder, we all come from the highlands of Africa). No frosts, rarely above 30 degrees, 10-15 C in the morning, 20-25 in the afternoon. A rainy season of 5-6 months. Even without irrigation you should have at least one great harvest. If you have irrigation you can harvest at least twice per year, or even thrice.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 09, 2020, 04:52:58 PM »
I have another blog post over on netweather. Looking at some examples of how Arctic Amplification is altering mid-latitude winter weather and contributing to more extremes.

This theory (waccy weather, wavy jetstream leading to extreme winters) was quite popular at the beginning of the 2010s (after a few cold winters) but I think it's been largely discredited by the very warm winters in Europe. I don't know about NA in detail, but Europe has seen very warm winters in the past 7 years, and what's more, winter minima were significantly higher than previously, ie: no extremes at all. I believe that the opening of the Chukchi/Bering modified the circulation, favoring a colder NA, warmer Europe. I wrote about that (charts, data) in the atmospheric connections thread

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 28, 2020, 05:18:13 PM »
So when is the official date the anti Trumpers start ignoring Trump in this and other threads?
January 20, 2021, at noon EST.

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 12, 2020, 12:50:24 AM »
From Wikipedia:

Nominee           Barack Obama   Mitt Romney    
Popular vote      65,915,795       60,933,504     difference:  4,982,291
Percentage        51.1%              47.2%            difference:  3.9%

2020 (96% complete)
Nominee            Joe Biden          Donald Trump    
Popular vote      77,400,101        72,266,137     difference:  5,133,964
Percentage        50.8%               47.4%            difference:  3.4% 
(Difference is increasing as CA votes get counted.  NY too?)

Yup, Greylib, my source and Walrus's were both accurate. (I'm not surprised.) 

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 11, 2020, 10:21:51 PM »
Re: "How far back do the outright lies go?"

Hearst, 1898: "’You furnish the pictures, I’ll provide the war!’"

But i imagine that the history goes much further back.


The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 11, 2020, 07:35:15 PM »
I definitely feels like a slow motion coup d'etat.

Sorry, but I do not subscribe to any of these conspiracy theories.

Same, there is no evidence there is any coup taking place.

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: November 09, 2020, 09:37:59 PM »
And "Right Wing" does not mean "Alt-Right".

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 08, 2020, 05:52:11 AM »
During the lockdown we were watching Mass over Facebook.
Of course, the problem with that is that you cannot receive Holy Eucharist that way.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 06, 2020, 08:46:53 PM »
Trouble is, even if he loses as now seems very likely, that fucker will be entitled to and demand to be addressed as President to his dying day.

Actually he is not entitled to be addresses as president.  That title is reserved for the current office holder.  His salutation reverts to his previous title, Mr. Trump.  The moderators during the debates incorrectly referred to Biden as vice president.
According to Wikipedia (and Huffington Post, per reference),
Historically, the title [President] was reserved for the incumbent president only, and was not be used for former presidents, holding that it was not proper to use the title as a courtesy title when addressing a former president. Despite that, some sources maintain that living former U.S. presidents continue to be addressed as "Mr. President", both formally and informally, and some contemporary experts on etiquette now maintain that it is entirely appropriate.
I guess we cannot agree on anything:P

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 06, 2020, 04:49:21 PM »
From Cook Report
Biden  74,042,631   50.6%
Trump 69,763,002   47.7%

2.9% spread (and counting)

polling average had a Democratic bias of +7.6 (without the Rasmussen poll.)
7.4 now.  Come on, now ( ::) ), where are those postal-truck-loads full of Biden votes in Miami-Dade County?  That'll bring it down to 7 points or something.  Still horrible for the polling organizations!  [No, they will never find those trucks, and no one will prove they even existed, and there won't be throngs of angry disenfranchised voters there, either.  Have I started a new conspiracy, despite my attempt to debunk it in the same paragraph?]

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 06, 2020, 03:24:51 PM »
I agree. But humans come into existence at conception, not birth.
I would be willing to see the Right lose every battle in the Culture War except Right to Life.
That is the best Downfall I have seen yet!
Have the military mail in ballots been counted? Could they make a difference?

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 05, 2020, 10:54:31 PM »
I just read an article about voters voting with cross purposes.  (Like this is new!) 

Florida voted for increasing the minimum wage in Florida to $15./hr by 2026 (incrementally, from the current $8.56) - 60.8% for - 39.2% against (~10,500,000 votes cast).  In the presidential race, they voted for the person who was strongly against increasing the minimum wage (Trump) and against the person who was strongly for it (Biden) - 51.2% to 47.9% (~11,000,000 votes cast).  (Some people don't vote in every race/question they could vote on.  American general election ballots can easily have 15 or 30 races and questions, including state constitution amendment proposals to local bond issues, and even the almost always proverbial "dog catcher".)  [When I voted in New Zealand in a general election (when I was a resident there - there wasn't a citizenship requirement), there were two questions on the ballot:  (1) which party did I support for parliament (no individual by name) - I think there were 3 parties, National, Labor and Values - and (2) did I support prohibition in the local district.]

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 09:35:28 PM »
It's disingenuous to lump the US as a single entity, just as it is to lump all of Europe together.

Might be. Still, you need to see the forest from the trees.

My point is that by the end of January 20-30% of the population in the US and Europe will have been infected. That will be enough for partial herd-immunity in many places given "liveable" restrictions. After that summer comes and vaccination. New infections top during Nov-Dec in most countries (deaths top in Dec-Jan) and then it is going downhill. It is simple maths.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 10:21:01 PM »
Nope, definitely the Mpemba effect  ::)

Well, that lead to me using up 15 mins of my life that I will never get back again.  But it was very interesting and a useful distraction.  So, thanks.  I guess...

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 03, 2020, 05:04:47 PM »
Voter fraud is extremely easy. There are many ways to do it. I won't list any, but if you are interested, just look up the numerous criminal cases to find examples. There was a big case in NC of a Republican hiring a ballot harvester in the primary (this year? 2018? I can't remember).

In the US or in any semi competent democratic system, voter fraud in sufficient numbers to make even a tiny difference is absolutely impossible to do without getting caught. Especially in a nationwide election.

Every election there are a handful of voters (usually Republicans) who are innumerate enough and stupid enough to think voter fraud is a good idea. Some of them get caught. The ones who don't get caught are too few to make a difference.

Trump has complained that there were "millions" of fraudulent votes in 2016 to explain his popular vote loss. After being in charge of the DOJ, the FEC, and the FBI for 4 years; and with all the resources of the largest, richest, most powerful government in history, his administration has found, prosecuted, and convicted exactly zero fraudulent voters out of those "millions".

Are Trump and every single one of his appointees monumentally incompetent, or was he lying about the "millions" of fraudulent votes?

Por que no los dos?


Instead of voter fraud, the US way to throw elections is by voter suppression, intimidation, and numerous "legal" ways of slanting the laws and rules to favor one interest group over others. Usually the oligarchists, the JimCrow/white supremacists, wealthy landowners, etc  ... these people make the rules and count the votes.

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:58:31 PM »
Why wouldn't anybody require ID when casting a vote on something that has impact on so many lives including your own???

Not to require some form of ID (passport,license etc) is not flawed anywhere in the world, it is pure common sense. Or do you think everyone is honest, and wouldn't take advantage?!

That is like saying why do you have a cashier when you buy something, why don't you just leave a box for people to put their money in.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:49:03 PM »
Voted this morning, after morning Mass.
Said a silent prayer of thanks that they moved my polling place from the school campus (where it used to take me ten minutes to find the polls) to the old church building next to our current Church.
Asked which precinct my address was in. Guard did not know but directed me to a wall of maps.
Looked and couldn't find it (I'm not good at reading maps). A poll worker came over and asked me where I lived. We thought we found it (I am at the corner of Ravenna Avenue and Rolling Meadows Drive)...but the street we thought was Rolling Meadows was labeled UNKNOWN on the map.
I decided to try the probable precinct station. Man there asked my address and confirmed it was the right precinct. Asked me to take my ID out of my wallet. I fiddled around with it for a bit and then sheepishly asked him to take it out. With a slight eyeroll he commenced. After a moment he said he would just enter the data through the wallet's "window".
I signed the screen as he told me to. He worked the screen and said "That's strange. I've done thousands of these and that never happened." He fiddled a bit more and turned over to his boss for help. She did her own voodoo on the screen and said "I've worked here ten years and I never saw that before!"
They did some more tinkering on the screen. She said "I know this is Tom!" (we sit next to each other at Mass and have become friends). I asked if I should call the toll free voting problems number posted on a sign outside the building but they said they would solve it. Which they did. I then went and voted normally.
This election will be over in a few hours (except for the counting) and God, angels, people, animals, plants, stars and rocks, I shall be

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:19:14 PM »
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Name and address widely available from phone book or online equivalent.
If someone get your birthday (hacking, knowing personally, whatever) is there anything to prevent them from voting in your name before you get a chance to?

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 02, 2020, 11:45:54 PM »
I don’t know about forcing people to vote if they don’t want to. What’s to stop them from just voting at random?
If you can’t be bothered to vote without force forcing a vote could just make things worse.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 02, 2020, 11:36:48 PM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 02, 2020, 09:58:44 PM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 01, 2020, 12:26:12 PM »
Voting in advance:
PRO: Escape long lines of potential covid patients.
     If something happens to you you get your vote in (I once missed an election because I was in the hospital with pneumonia).
CON: You can't change your vote when your candidate is caught in a sex scandal involving half a ton of dry ice and 50 live aardvarks.

The most effective way to increase radiation losses from the arctic during winter is to take the ice away. Open water is much better at putting out radiation than ice is.

Just get rid of the ice.

Which it seems we are doing anyway.

Problem solved! ;)

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