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Messages - bbr2315

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I do think it is a very important teleconnection and I have never read about it anywhere, so I might eventually get the Nobel Prize for this :) :) :)

Anyway, I don't have the NA temp anomaly data at hand but if you can point it to me, I'll do the math. (my main interest was and is Europe as I live here)

As for dates: Nov 20 works worse. It seems to me that Dec 1 is the best.

As for current numbers: Hudson minus Chukchi % is currently below 2017,18,19, but above all other years. Would suggest a warmer European winter

What's more, my observation is that the more open the Chukchi and the more iced over the Hudson, the warmer it is in Europe during winter. So here I plot Hudson % ice cover minus Chukchi %icecover on Dec 1, and European winter temp anomaly. Lo and behold


Since 2007, whenever the Hudson freezes over early, winters are usually milder in Europe. May have something to do with the "Pole of Cold" being displaced to the American side saving Europe from the cold...

I was curious about this, so I graphed it. One is DJF, one is JFM

Two things.

1) I should have said that I used Dec 1 values
2) I think you might have mixed up the numbers, because for example the 2019 Dec 1 ice extent values need to be paired with 2019 Dec, 2020 Jan 2020 Feb temparatures (3,4C anomaly not 1,2 C as seen on your chart). I think you paired it with 2018Dec, 2019Jan, 2019Feb

here is my chart where Dec1 Hudson ice cover is paired with Copernicus European DJF anomaly:


Since 2007, whenever the Hudson freezes over early, winters are usually milder in Europe. May have something to do with the "Pole of Cold" being displaced to the American side saving Europe from the cold...

I was curious about this, so I graphed it. One is DJF, one is JFM

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 08, 2020, 05:42:21 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 05, 2020, 01:33:20 AM »
Well that speech will sure win you some hearts.  ::)
I'm still pissed off at you for deleting the cannabis thread I started that was then immediately reproduced by someone else and is now as dead as a doornail...

Why wasn't I allowed this thread?
Why did you kill it?

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 05, 2020, 12:41:56 AM »
I was never here to win hearts... I'm here for information about the planet and was trying to contribute within my own restrictions... But what's the use? I was so happy A-team was back, but I don't think that'll last long with all the resident ego trippers...

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2020, 10:54:19 PM »
This forum is a compilation of children...

When I handed a solution with Olivine, the response here was dismal... Ignored... because of personal issues...

I guess most idiots here are only here for an ego trip...
There are no solutions here. Only bickering and ego trips...

What a bunch of idiots...

My apologies to the handful of users that do try to make a difference!
They are few, and under attack constantly by the brainless idiots on an ego trip...

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 08:21:53 PM »
We discussed here and we all watched for it. BLM protests had almost no impact. Why? It was hot, it was outside, and they were mostly young people wearing masks.

There is a clear and significant negative correlation between the percentage of a
state’s population who reported protesting and the subsequent increase in cases of
COVID-19. Thus, for example, Washington D.C., which had by far the highest reported
participation rates in the protests at 13.7%, had a relatively low increase in cases during
this period. A fuller analysis -- again, beyond the scope of this report -- requires
incorporation of the various factors that have driven the surge of cases the last two
months, such as changes in mobility and adherence to health guidelines (such as mask
wearing) by the broader population in each state, and a variety of state policies. For
example, our data also indicate that individuals in states with higher levels of protests also
had higher levels of compliance with mask wearing (Figure 9).

Basically masks work if you wear them. That's why BLM didn't produce as much covid as Bar openings.

Alexander555 seems to enjoy taking racially charged stabs. Which is fine, people can't help being who they are. What makes me mad is that they act all offended when we call them Nazis. Go ahead be racist, but then don't complain when I declare you a Nazi. Have some self-respect.

Maybe i'm at the right place here for some racial stuff. We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed. But no tread about a beheaded teacher Samuel Paty defending free speech. And let me tell you something about your illegal brothers. We have several of them at work. And for the moment they are all active on social media to boycot French. Because you have to understand they insulted the prophet. A bunch of illegal lunatics that exploited people like you, and now turn against you. Because you can not argue with them, the prophet is above everything. I feel sorry for these old femenised man like you, and especially for the people you will leave behind. But you are from Puerto Rico, is'nt it. So maybe you dont even understand about what i'm talking.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 08:57:54 PM »
The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.

It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)

If nobody works, how does any work get done?
The main forum has drifted off from citizen-science to chat room and copy/paste. The notion of posting a bald-faced claim without somewhat supporting it with a source, outside link, satellite product, other data or analysis -- who wants to do other people's homework? 

Climate change reminds me of covid19: a lot of immensely uninformed people running around making things worse. The very best communicators are not getting through despite setting up extraordinary resources (eg E Topol).

I post science-lite expository material: open data / freeware / no code / no calculus / no physics / no models but even that now exceeds the interest level.

I've no idea how the unprecedented current anomaly will play out but it is a good stand-in for a tipping point and imminent climate emergency -- and the experts are certainly taking it that way. It is definitely the biggest thing we've seen since the 2007 minimum and GAAC 2012.

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ... if so, climate chaos won't end with a bang but a brain-fog whimper.

I have long thought that as the Arctic seas remain open longer during autumn, the Aleutian Low will be displaced. I think this might be happening this year. When you have very warm seas and continental land masses cool during October, cold air moves toward the warm seas and rises, creating our well know Icelandic and Aleutian Lows. What happens though when the Siberian seas are very warm? It seems that the Aleutian low is displaced and a new, Siberian Seas Low is created (I believe that eventually this will morph into the Arctic Low when we reach BOE). You can see this year's air pressure chart on the first pic, and the climatological average on the second. The Aleutian low is very weak, and there is a new low in the Siberian Seas.

The loss of the Aleutian Low has significant consequences for NH weather. The Aleutian Low used to push wet, mild air into Canada, warming it and separating colder, Arctic airmasses from the US. As you can see on the third picture, the lack of these airmasses led to cold breakouts into the US this year. Also, as warm Atlantic air is no longer pushed towards Mongolia but instead into Northern Siberia/ESS region, the inner parts of Eurasia are also cooler than average.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 27, 2020, 02:50:44 AM »
I was being antagonistic to the position of A-Team, not the person, since he uses his expertise in the area to construct “express science” pictures of very alarmist scenarios. Many posters swallow his paintings as if it was ex cathedra truth. It is not. He complains of slow science sometimes (and of bothersome contributors, and of a thousand things more, he’s basically a “victim”) but the truth is, slow science is rigorous and true and at the end will save our skin, all the noise here will not, including his beautiful constructions.

I hoped you would have not touched my post, but it’s ok.

A-Team gives numerous references to back up his main points and to educate those of us who want to dig into the details. He is not just dazzling us with beautiful graphics. The "alarmist scenarios" are possible outcomes that are consistent with the data and models at hand. To date, scenarios once presented as most likely by the IPCC have been replaced by ones that are more "alarmist".

Your use of the word "alarmist" makes you sound like a right wing troll. Your abusive comments about posters do as well. Have a nice day.
First of all, if you are American I am a socialist leftist for you, if you are European out of UK then I am a moderate social democrat for you.
My carbon footprint is much under the medium class average in Spain, so abysmally lower than average American, probably you. It’s just that I don’t depend on private transport very much lately.
I am very environmentally conscious, but not to the point of living in a cave or a refuge. I taught my daughter to love and care for the planet.
I find (some) climate alarmists and climate denialists really really annoying.
I don’t like A-Team or you but I had dropped this weeks ago, you want to fight on this now? My plan was to stay away or not create more quarrels and avoid extra work to moderators.
What? Am I a troll for disliking your posts?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »
Trend in the maximum extent minus the minimum extent.
Inset map of the 2020 max and min extent too.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 01:45:15 PM »
vox_mundi, your quote of the Lancet articles does say “July 2020” as the time of the data, even if the date of the publication is September 25.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:41:08 PM »
Interestingly, there was a moratorium placed on the Laboratory in Wuhan China during the Obama administration to stop research modifying coronavirus genetic structure.  The Wuhan laboratory was specifically studying bat coronaviruses, see:


The current administration in the US lifted these restrictions... ;)

Gain-of-Function Research and the Relevance to Clinical Practice

There are also risks associated with GOF research, of which the clinical community will have to be acutely aware. As recent lapses at high-profile laboratories have illustrated, there remains the potential that bacterial and viral strains can escape even the most secure environments.

The role of dual-use gain-of-function research in SARS-CoV-2 origin

Unless the intermediate host
necessary for completing a natural
zoonotic jump is identified, the dual‐use
gain‐of‐function research practice of
viral serial passage should be considered
a viable route by which the novel
coronavirus arose.

The practice of serial
passage mimics a natural zoonotic jump,
and offers explanations for SARS‐CoV‐2's
distinctive spike‐protein region and its
unexpectedly high affinity for
angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE2),
as well as the notable polybasic furin
cleavage site within it.

The long‐standing practice of serial
passage is a form of gain‐of‐function
research that forces zoonosis between
species, and requires the same molecular
adaptations necessary for a natural
zoonotic jump to occur within a laboratory,
leaving the same genetic signatures behind
as a natural jump but occurring in a much
shorter period of time.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:33:58 PM »
There were many reports earlier this year proclaiming the virus natural. Since you make extraordinary claims, feel free to support them.

Well, @BBR it looks like we can finally more or less agree on something.

I also am of the opinion that there's no way on this blue Earth that this virus mysteriously appeared in an open food market.  Truth is that it made such a good "story" that they knew the ignorantly masses would believe that story, but it's not realistic.

Was this virus actually synthesized in a lab?  Personally, I do not believe this is a "laboratory created virus", but could it have been modified?  That's certainly possible, but I do doubt that China has the sophistication to perform such a modification successfully.

Did this virus ORIGINATE in a lab.  IMO absolutely yes, it came from the lab in Wuhan China. 

That particular lab's speciality was studying bat coronaviruses, and several papers were published on the subject.  Horeshoe bats, I believe is the species name - or at least one of them, that the team in Wuhan was studying.

Did they make this virus artificially?  I don't think China is sophisticated enough to do that - they could barely manage to keep this virus safe within their lab to begin with, and I seriously doubt they have the capability to synthesize a novel virus on their own.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:35:54 PM »
The Economist is a liberal, pro-capitalist media (and BTW a very vocal proponent of the need to curb AGW, the need for clean energy, carbon-taxes, etc). So what?

We are talking about the number of flu cases here, which is hard data. And the Economist is definitely NOT fake-news media, they are very meticulous about their data sources.

Interestingly, harpy never had a problem with eg. vox's newssources, like usnews,cnbc,abcnews,usatoday to name just a few. I am 100% sure that the Economist's data-verification is way above those.

Anyway, I found this missing case of flu interesting and relevant to COVID.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: September 10, 2020, 07:28:08 PM »
Not a very bold prediction given the state of the ice, but I predict a record or near-record late refreeze of the Kara and Laptev Sea. My reasoning behind this is because those two seas...:

a) had a very early complete melt-out this year. The Laptev Sea broke the record by about 2 weeks, the Kara had (eyeballing) a tied record-early melt-out with some other years. This can be seen in Attachment 1 (graph from here).

b) were exposed to very high temperatures compared to normal. Throughout the whole summer (and also a long time in spring) these areas recorded very high temperature anomalies. Because of the early melt-out, this additionaly means that during a long time period it was open water exposed to those temperatures. Here are the temperature anomalies for May, June, July and August.

c) are expected to keep being exposed to really high temperatures in the coming days, as can be seen in the 7-day forecast.

I think all these factors put together make a record-late refreeze possible or even likely. Of course cold, clear weather with little wind in October could change this outlook.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 07, 2020, 07:27:41 PM »

That’s nice Vox. The problem is that this can be applied to all kinds of people when the thing gets politicized, and politicized. As much as I dislike Trump, I hate what they’re doing (dems and friends) to make this a political tool. There’s not an iota of proof that the current dems (the demented and the guys that tell him what to do early in the morning before he disconnects) would have done a better job.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 04:37:26 AM »
Osi Saf still reporting lots of ice movement, not surprising given the Nullschool animations we've been looking at. Movement has subsided along the Laptev front but increased at the Barents front. In addition, the Beaufort arm has finally responded to the persistent air flow and started moving as well. With wind not forecast to let up but actually intensify, bottom melt quite significant (as also reported on the Mosaic thread) and the CAB ice disturbingly thin, a cold spell and initial refreeze had better come soon - or else.

Click to enlarge.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 04:28:49 AM »
Comparisons with previous years shows the uniqueness the Atlantic side retreat, and also the improbability of Beaufort survival coupled with a low ice year. The only year that comes close along the Barents CAB front is 2013, which had lots of ice elsewhere.

August is in the monthly NCEP/NCAR R1

temps at 925mb for the entire Arctic over the past 4 months have been the most extreme ever observed.  Hard to reckon with this signal over the past two years.

Second is gif of 1999-2020 925mb air temperature anomaly vs the 1981-2010 average (click to run)

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 02, 2020, 10:02:06 PM »
It's the second time igs has done this. He used to post as magnamentis, deleted his profile, and then came back. So, it seems valuable members can also return!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 01, 2020, 08:54:52 PM »
This is my last try harpy to help you out with the maths

Your quote:

"For example, if an LFIA is applied to a population with a true SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 10%, for every 1000 people tested, 31 who never had covid-19 will be incorrectly told they are immune, and 34 people who had covid-19 will be incorrectly told that they were never infected."

Now what does it mean? We have 1000 people. 100 had been infected, 31 uninfected will be told they are immune but they are not, 34 of the immune will be told they are not. So the test will say that in total 97 people had the virus (instead of the real number, which is 100). How will that change mnortality numbers? It won't. If 1 people died, the mortality rate will be 0,97% instead of the true rate of 1%.

please read up on fales positives, false negatives, do some calculations for populations with 1,5 and 25% real infection and you will understand. If you have done that we can continue.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:55:59 PM »

Spread betters now in favour of a Trump win.

Covid19 is now seemingly playing in Trump's favour.

Odds for D winning the Senate sharply down.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 27, 2020, 02:58:34 PM »
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.
Severe Cold Winter in North America Linked to Bering Sea Ice Loss
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades. Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice. Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 22, 2020, 02:46:36 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: August 21

Arctic Sea ice area: 2,835,222 million km^2.

Change from yesterday: 81,783 km^2

August 21, 2020 daily Area and Extent below.

(2020) NSIDC: Area daily: 2.835               NSIDC: Extent daily: 4.630       

NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 18
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 04:07:07 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.

If this post is to inflammatory then delete it.

Anyways reading back a few pages I notice multiple contributors who spent all summer for downplaying what took place, at times pushed data products in the not so genuine way and one poster from what I could gather since I can't see his posts even started posting daily during the slow early August stage in the daily records thread.

Well that stopped.  And now this thread haa seemingly gone silent.

Even tho 2019 is below 2020 on jaxa attn 2020 is going  to finish somewhere between 250-500K below 2019.

We are all bias but it's just a chuckle that there was no way 2020 was finishing above 2019 on any metric except whixh year had more ice coverage at it's minimum?

2019 will win that category easily

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 02:21:42 PM »
I always liked Blum as well, until I found out what he was doing behind my back. I reported it to Neven, who then investigated it, and confirmed that what I reported to him was accurate. Neither Neven or I were responsible for Blum asking to be removed as moderator, or for him to delete his account. He decided that all by himself. So please stop thinking I'm the bad guy here! I did what I thought was best for the forum. I hope people can respect that, and move on.

This will be the last thing I will say about this. Let's focus back on the ice now.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2020, 05:17:32 PM »
does any of it really matter ? In a world of illusion , all things are what we make of them .
 Although I've stood for election , I haven't voted in the last 42 years ..
 I'm not a rat nor in a race . I'd much rather have a smoke with a politician than kill them .

  peace b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2020, 12:16:39 PM »
No worries, Oren. I do value this community. It's 99% great people. The few hustlers will not drive me off the forum. I have no respect for them whatsoever.

I deleted my account once because neven (basically) called me a nazi. Back then i respected him and his words mattered to me. They don't anymore.
Wow. So you admit that you are actively trying to get rid of the 1% you don't agree with?

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2020, 11:34:17 AM »
Please remove me as a moderator, Neven.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 14, 2020, 02:12:29 AM »
The other main thrust from Neven is his theory that a lot of the hysterical Covid publicity is part of some sort of Illuminati conspiracy.

In my own defence - and I wish had more time to reply to comments, especially the twisting and slandering - but the Illuminati conspiracy stuff is wrong. That's not what I'm pushing at all. What I always say, is that the number one goal of the current global system is to increase concentrated wealth. That's not because there's some occult cabal conspiring to do so, but because this is simply what happens when wealth reaches a certain size and level of concentration. It takes over, and then increasingly worse things happen, until it destroys itself and the cycle begins anew.

Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus.

Everything you wrote here, is either untrue or an exaggeration. Apparently, you are stuck in fighting-fascism-mode so much that just one small trigger is enough to convince you that you are dealing with 'The Enemy', and your reading comprehension goes down the drain. Or maybe you're just trolling to break this forum.

Either way, I thought that making you a moderator would make you less combative, authoritarian and annoying. Having to take on different roles can broaden one's horizon by empathizing with other perspectives, leading to further levels of understanding and wisdom. You, however, remain stuck in very simplistic and naive Us vs Them antagonisms, with no deeper analysis, wider overview or vision to speak of. Just the gut lashing out, a bit like a Trump supporter.

So, how about I revoke those moderator rights, and you can just be yourself, without having to take on a responsibility you're not cut our for?

All this shouldn't happen on a scientifically oriented forum. He drove away valued community members by doing so.

The only scientifically oriented part of this forum is the one about Arctic sea ice. That was the intended goal of this whole thing. It's the only thing that makes this forum valuable. The rest is BS that can be found all over the Internet.

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued. They need to stop putting me on a pedestal and extrapolating my work on Arctic sea ice to all my other opinions. I'm just some idiot.

And if they can make an effort to actually understand what I'm trying to stay, instead of letting it get stuck in filters and projections, that'd be great. No need to twist my words so that it can be dismissed as nazi covidiot conspiracy stuff.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 10:54:11 PM »
Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.

Well that is a whole lot slander or projection.

The valid fear of dieing also is not an issue on the internet.

People should look at issues in a less emotional laden way which is something you have a bit of a problem with. It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera. There are all kinds of other things to discuss like the actual handling of this crisis while people prefer to froth at the mouth when Donny mention HQC.

1 What you talk about on the internet does not really effect the meatworld much
2 It would probably be more interesting to see where or why the actual difference pops up and the measurement of that is not your actual allergies.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: August 09, 2020, 06:28:15 PM »
Neven, if you really think that would be the same with a Democratic president, i don't know what to say anymore.

That says more about you than about me. Keep focussing on the optics.

The politics / Re: Why CHAZ failed
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:00:42 PM »
My grandfather fought the Kaiser. My father was supposed to invade Japan, but a couple big firecrackers turned that into occupation duty and probably saved his life.
This article describes what happened at CHAZ, and how it fell into anarchy and warlordism. That is what happens when you get rid of the police. There are over two thirds of a million police officers in the United States, and 99% of them are heroes risking their lives to protect us from the muggers, rapists and murderers.
EDIT: What I am trying to prevent is this defund the police meme that has sprung up. If we end the police we will all end up as CHAZ.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 09:53:54 AM »
The question of seasonality is basically proven to me (I did not believe it at all back in March, mind you).

Take a look at this graph. This one shows how much (based on Google measurements) mobility was down in July vs pre-covid average.

Argentina , Peru, Colombia, (winter), India, Philippines (monsoon) are doing their utmost (mobility down 30-40%) to stop it and yet case numbers keep on surging. At the same time, Europe is down only 13% vs pre-covid and yet cases are rising only slowly.

How come?

There is no other explanation than seasonality. Europe was saved by the onset of summer. And will be devastated in October-December.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 

For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 28, 2020, 04:36:52 PM »
Vitamin D Deficiency is correlated with a host of diseases, including Covid 19. However, Vitamin d supplementation is not a cure or even treatment of those diseases.

If Vitamin D makes people suceptible to C19, then knowing when  people will be the most suceptible is vital.

Vitamin D (25OHD) Serum Seasonality in the United States

Vitamin D is an important micronutrient for health. Hypovitaminosis D is thought to play a role in the seasonality of a number of diseases and adverse health conditions. To refine hypotheses about the links between vitamin D and seasonal diseases, good estimates of the cyclicality of serum vitamin D are necessary.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:14:37 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:31:25 AM »;topic=3017.0;attach=277740;image

 This is probably the most destructive 3 day forecast I've seen . As bbr rightly says the ECM forecast to day 10 continues to be no less than 'catastrophic' . I'm sure there'll be some ice somewhere within the basin come September , but I'm certainly not confident enough as to where it will be to draw a map !
 It looks like the die is loaded . For three months now , pretty much only the worst forecasts verify and for three months we have watched the ice disappear and what's left deteriorate .
  A page or 2 back someone mentioned floes spreading back into the Laptev . Floes ? There is very little ice left on the Atlantic side that merits the name ! Below is how 100'000 sq kms of ice look today N. of Laptev .. I can see a few floes on the right side and a few bits and pieces embedded in the now dispersing mush . Lucky Polarstern isn't on the hunt for a floe this year !

I was going to comment earlier that it looks like the ice is kissing the Atlantic side archipelagos goodbye in aluminium's gif and WV . I wonder when they will see it back . Again , here ,  the average size of floe is a fraction of even last year's . The retreating ice will be protected by the remnants of thicker floes and ridges as the rest of the mush melts . This may help slow the retreat as it did on  the Laptev side recently where the remnants are now the perishing vanguard as the front heads south again .
             very pessimistic , but perfectly happy b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:54:24 AM »
Thankfully these crazy predictions of 2.5million are now gone. Looks like a stall will mean we finish in the pack. Though probably whether we come 2nd or 3rd will be the only question. Think 2019 and 2020 will be very close at the end despite everything. Hopefully August will be a boring month for the ice.

So you expect the endless torching over the CAA and Eastern CAB to not keep melting the ice??  Which is already showing up on modis when the clouds clear out filled with holes...

What do you think this 972MB vortex puking out rain all over the Beaufort, Chuckchi, and Western CAB in concert with 20-30KT winds over 36-48 hours is going to do to ice that is truly 50-60 percent Concentration with MILES of OPEN WATER between the DECIMATED CHUNKS of ice?

And when that system winds down we still have another 40 days of ice loss to go.

You literally call predictions for new record lows crazy while giving no evidence to back up your new prediction of 2nd or 3rd lowest. I assume you are talking about extent.

Well you did cite a few days of slower losses while winds are in the reverse dipole position.  Which hasn't stopped melting.  Just compaction.

I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 

I guess you have historical precidence on your side.  It would be nice if you would back up why you think 2020 is probably going to end up tied with or below 2019.

You may be right.  But it's pretty cheap to call the incredible analysis that dozens of members here contribute as crazy and then not actually offer any substance to back youe position.  Please no hard feelings.  Have a good night/day


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:25:31 AM »
What's with closet deniers making multiple usernames... Being disingenuous reeks through every crack that it can.  In other words it's easy to spot.

Anyways the DMI 00z surface temp map isn't out.

But the 80N map shows temps above the long term average.

Pretty wild. Might go even higher the next few days.

Also at 00Z Alert, NU reported a 17C SURFACE temp.

With a pure Southerly wind at 17KTS.

Mid 60s heading into quasi night time with a Southerly breeze pumping incredible warmth into the CAB.

On the DMI ssts graphic.  It's hard to see but the Beaufort is showing above freezing ssts slightly throughout the rubble. Which has continued to weaken under the canopy.  The sst graphic is always 2 days behind.  I look forward to seeing how much the open water in the far Southern CAB warms.

Also Barrow Alaska must be in the warm sector of the organizing system.

At 00Z Barrow was rocking a 7.4C temp and 6.5C DP with a 15-20KT pure Southerly wind.  With a decent deep and deepening mixing ratio.

So over the next 2 days in the warm sector of this system warm deep moisture will bring some rain to the rubble.

At Inuvik near the mouth of the Mackenzie delta 00z...  20C with 10C DP and deep mixing.

At Resolute 5.6/5.6C so deep fog at that temp which is ice bye bye.

Eureka, NU was 18C at 00z.  Our friends there in the science community can get outside in shorts today

Also the GFS has a wide area of 0 25-1.0" of rain over a large region from the vortex. Only 1-2" of snow in a very small spot.

Also it shows 20-30KT sustained winds directly over the weakest rubble region for 36 hours.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 26, 2020, 04:37:29 AM »
Pointless! Australia below.

Why did you delete the graph showing the second wave in Australia?
I didn't delete it, someone else did, or it disappeared (?)

It was not you, which is good because I thought it was weird that you would delete posts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 03:23:45 AM »
      After looking at the GFS July 25 18Z forecast, two things jump out that no one has commented on that may be significant. 
1.  It looks like the low pressure on the Pacific side and the moderate but not trivial high pressure on the Atlantic side is creating a sustained reversed-Arctic transport wind field moving already fractured ice toward the Laptev Sea where the high surface temperature is an ice killing zone.  The wind speeds are not that high, mostly below 15 knots, but they are persistent.  I don't know how much ice and how far the ice will actually move, but it could be one more negative influence to bleed out CAB ice.   If signficant, the Laptev bite may not have to reach the North Pole ice, that ice may come out to meet the Laptev bite halfway.

2.  Some of the surface heat in the CAA - Greenland - North Pole triangle is from a 2.5 day period of clear sky extending right up to the pole.  Looking at the surface insolation chart, even late July is still close enough to solstice for that to be another significant dagger into the heart of the CAB.  Thus, energy that does not even show up as changing the temperature will be going into melting ice. The triangle used to be home to some of the thickest toughest multiyear ice.  The ice that remains there this September could be a remnant Extent with none of those other qualitative characteristics.   

Pale, light blue = clear sky over ice.  Dark blue = clear sky over water. 
Green - rain, "Aqua-blue" = snow.

    With only 6 years as an Arctic voyeur, I don't know enough to be apocalyptic, but FWIW in addition to what we are hearing from the old hands on deck, add one more "Holy Cow, I've never seen anything like 2020".  After all the melt season conditioning this year, if these forecasts verify the cumulative effect of the different Arctic regional weather events looks to be in the same league as the GAC2012. 

    No, the low pressure system is not as intense or as long lasting as GAC2012, but this Arctic-wide scenario has someting going on just about everywhere: cyclone in the already fractured Beaufort, unprecedented subsurface heat in the Beaufort, roasting top down heat in the CAA, clear sky and heat in the heart of the CAB triangle, extensive and intensive heat across the entire Atlantic front.  All this happening to ice that has been softened up by May melt pond set up, and extended periods of heat and clear sky in June and July.  So the widespread melt pressure is going onto ice with far below normal resistance.

     Thus the cumulative effect looks equally as significant as the GAC2012.  If I'm wrong, let me know.  That's how I learn.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 01:30:56 AM »
Made a JAXA extent forecast of 2 - 2.5M in early July and I'm doubling down on it. These conditions are ridiculous and the model runs show a lower and lower low as the event approaches.

This upcoming week is incredibly active globally!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 25, 2020, 11:26:15 PM »
Another good Unherd interview:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 08:53:58 PM »
We have an absolutely insane week of weather ahead. Please observe the deep low in the Chukchi & Beaufort seas, the hurricane developing in the main development region of the Atlantic and the crazy storm that tracks from the coast of Spain to the east coast of central Greenland advecting north African air towards the pole. There's strong agreement of the ECMWF and GFS on all three storms, giving us confidence in the forecast. The ECMWF takes the hurricane into the Caribbean while the GFS takes it north of the Caribbean but there's really strong agreement on the 2 storms that will advect enormous amounts of heat from the north American and Atlantic sides towards the pole.

I should be posting this in all caps for drama, but it's not my style.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:15:55 AM »
I support the notion that Gero should not have special treatment, especially when he throws his opinions  about other posters ideas in absolutely off-topic comments. We have to be very careful when directing opinions about other posters ideas, however he has the *pass*

Another guy that is extremely bothersome is this Bintho, he has great eloquence and rhetorics (and English is obviously not his second language), which he uses to diss people’s comments and opinions, he asks for references as if he was a professor, but ideas? Creative thinking? Conjectures? Interesting debate? Rarely. He just makes his depositions here and there dissing other posters ideas without really adding anything to the conversation.
He ridicules a conjecture that I recognize needs validation ( I am not claiming terraplanism either) and he disses the idea with an absolutely wrong concept of “floes don’t jump” demonstrating a very wrong and poor physical vision. Of course, he also lacks the references or valid counter-arguments that he demands, so he is a fraud unless he really comes with something.

It’s really tiresome, these characters that think of themselves as Sires, never get moderation when they should, and honestly, give worse vibe to the Forum than a poster occasionally snapping or getting into a rage.

I think this forum is full of these egos which is what it gives the unfriendly and hostile, I would say even closed-minded character to the Forum as of today.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 25, 2020, 03:56:46 AM »
[T]he ice age/reglaciation theory that you are presenting has been rejected here on the ASIF. It is not only wrong, but a derailment in every discussion where it pops up. As a moderator in the Cryo section I cannot allow it to be bandied about. IMHO it also muddies the waters with AGW, with no scientific justification, and thus may help deniers, which is why I oppose the concession of allowing it to be discussed in a dedicated thread. . . .

If you wish to be allowed a thread to discuss it, either convince Neven or a majority of the moderators, and I will have to comply. Otherwise, I hope you can get over its absence on the ASIF, and continue to contribute on other subjects.

I think this is very unfair.  As you and others have noted, bbr’s theory has never been popular on ASIF. But, as FOOW noted above, it is not bbr’s theory.

There is science supporting what he is saying.  It comes from a peer reviewed paper published by Dr. Hansen who is one of the most respected of all climate scientists.  A couple of years ago people were picking on bbr, and he shared that paper with us.  It was a long one, but I read the whole thing and there is some support for bbr’s interpretation of the science. 

That paper might be dated, but it has not been retracted.

As bbr mentioned above, when he had his own thread, he restricted his comments on his controversial theory to just that thread almost 100% of the time. 

I see no harm in letting him continue to have a thread on that subject. If people think it is wrong, they can ignore the thread. If people think newer studies contradict the findings from the original paper they can point that out in bbr’s thread, and he can do battle there.   

I have always liked bbr, and think he is a valuable member of this community. He has always been picked on because people don’t like his pet theory, but he always presents science and data to back up his arguments.

I am not saying I agree with his theory. I don’t. But, I also know I might be wrong so I don’t mind listening to what he has to say as long as he continues to back it up with science and data.

The theory he proposes is based upon his interpretation of a study by Dr. Hansen. I see no harm in giving  him his own thread to discuss that theory.

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