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Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever

« on: January 22, 2019, 10:24:14 PM »

N. American glacier mass waste increases fourfold in ten years:

"We observe a fourfold increase in mass loss rates between 2000–2009 [ 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt yr 1 ] and 2009–2018 [ 12.3 ± 4.6 Gt yr 1 ]"

Thats a doubling period of about 9 yr.

Caveats:

"Our estimated rate of WNA mass change for the early period ( 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt/yr ) is considerably less negative than the rate ( 14 ± 3 Gt/yr) previously reported for the period 2003–2009 (Gardner et al., 2013)."

"Using available SMB measurements for 14 glaciers in WNA (supporting information S1), we calculate an average mass change of 874 ± 100 kg m^2/yr over the period 2000–2017. When multiplied by the total glacierized area of WNA, this value yields an annual mass loss of 13.6 ± 4.3 Gt/yr , close to the value (14 ± 3 Gt/yr ) calculated by Gardner et al. (2013) using a similar approach. These values are twice as large as those based on our trend analysis. This discrepancy suggests that glaciers chosen for long-term monitoring programs are losing mass more rapidly than the region as a whole."

Open access, read all about it: Menunos et al doi:10.1029/2018GL080942  . Pelto is an author as might be suspected.

sidd

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Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD

« on: January 06, 2019, 06:36:25 PM »

Wili,

i completely agree and want to add an infamous quote:

Let them eat cake!

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The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future

« on: December 05, 2018, 03:12:49 AM »

There may soon come a time where I start banning people as well, who are unwilling to discuss underlying causes and oppose radical solutions to systemic problems. Especially if they display (neo)conservative tendencies, like you do, either consciously or subconsciously.

Again, if you can't even admit something as simple as George Bush being a war criminal, it may be best that you start looking for a forum that is more to your liking, or at least restrict your presence to the Arctic Sea Ice board. I think it would be better for you, and it would definitely be less tiresome and depressing for me.

Neven I have publicly predicted a long while ago that the proliferation of politics on this forum will destroy it. I am marking your post as a milestone. As you are the owner, you may not care and decide that is okay. But it's a pity really. The whole Internet is filled up with politics and political trolls. And yes, almost anybody posting incessantly in these threads is basically a troll, begging your pardon. Nothing is achieved except feeding the trolls on the "other side", whatever it may be.
But there are very few well-moderated denier-less forums dedicated to arctic sea ice, AGW, SLR, sustainability, carrying capacity, long-term trends, and all the science behind it all. But this will be gone in order to bring in useless political rants that go nowhere and convince no one.
I have asked you time and again to split the forum, start a forum on politics - with different aliases to avoid the cross-contamination of emotions, and leave the poor ASIF free of this garbage. It's 100% your call, I am just disappointed in it. Very much so.
Now I know that you say repeatedly that just the science is not enough, but a systemic social change is needed. Granted, the borders between the science, economics and politics are somewhat ambiguous, but surely fighting over whether Russia or Ukraine are the bad guys in some tiny conflagration somewhere is outside the scope, and there are many other examples. Far too many to list.
It was JimD who started some of the political threads on the ASIF - such as this Empire thread. But JimD knew how to state his opinion clearly, tie it to the long-term trends that are in the scope of this forum, and be done with it. His posts never felt irrelevant or repetitive, but now I'm sorry he opened the door and then went away. Can you imagine JimD arguing over whether Bellingcat or RT are the true bible? I am ashamed that this is going on in a forum I spend so much time on. And I am certain I am far from being the only one who feels that way.
I will let this sad post go now. Do with it what you will.

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4

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release

« on: November 29, 2018, 12:01:04 PM »

When I was a child my tonsils were taken out because scientists said that it was a "useless" organ that is only causing problems. Turns out it has an important part in the immune system. Too bad for me, I have no tonsils anymore.
When I was a child they said that it was unnecessary to feed children mother's milk after 6 weeks, because infant nutrition formulas are better. Turns out, it is completely wrong for many reasons.

In both cases common sense and the biological history of mankind would have said that scientists are talking nonsense, mother's milk is the best for children, and there are hardly any "useless" organs.

The same is true for this methane bomb threat. Yes, there might be some scientific findings that make methane klathrates a huge threat but the history of the past few million years says that (despite warmer temperatures and less arctic ice) it has never caused any runaway processes. The logical conclusion (to me) is that this will also be true this time (of course everyone is entitled to his/her opinion).

CO2 will cause significant warming this century, probably well beyond what is hoped for in the Paris agreement yet it does not necessarily mean that we are doomed and runaway processes will start. Remember that we even had 2000 ppm Co2 50 mln yrs ago without runaway processes.

Also, someone brought up on this thread that he expects a global food shortage in 2yrs. No reasons given other than the methane catastrophe. I think scaremongering like this discredit the whole movement for a more sustainable human life (which includes phasing out carbon as an energy source but many many other things as well!).

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Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.

« on: November 25, 2018, 10:52:25 AM »

Had a second look at this company. Apparently - appart from all the local greenwash bullshit around Boston - they have also landed a 40 million USD contract delivering fresh produce to Emirates. A new vertical farm installment in Dubai will now deliver 3 tons a day to transcontinental flight passengers. Nice to know that it is "local produce", when you land in Auckland.

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The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation

« on: November 20, 2018, 01:49:39 PM »

A great loss for ASIF.  Besides this transcendental thread, AbruptSLR has gems like his El niño watch, and conservative scientists debunking thread.

AbruptSLR elevated ASIF considerably. His posts revealed a great mind. AbruptSLR will be missed. 

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The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency

« on: November 16, 2018, 12:02:22 PM »

Everybody in Washington likes the Saudis (and Israelis) because of the b/trillions of dollars they pay for US bombs and rockets.

This is what needs to be focussed on, because it's not just about fighting Trump, but about changing the system at the same time:

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Policy and solutions / Re: What's New in Climate Change Acceptance and Action

« on: November 13, 2018, 08:46:12 PM »

U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Joins Environmental Activists in Protest at Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s Office

The proposed committee would, among other things, establish a 10-year plan to transition the U.S. economy to become carbon neutral, according to draft legislation that the activists presented to Pelosi’s office. The activists are also pushing Democratic leaders to reject campaign contributions from fossil fuel industry groups. “We need every person who is going to claim the mantle of Democratic leadership to take the no fossil fuel money pledge,” Prakash said at the sit-in outside Pelosi’s office.

Ocasio-Cortez’s decision to join the protesters and march on her own House leader sets a tone of urgency and combativeness that is rare on Capitol Hill. Walking into the Cannon House Office Building, she told The Intercept something new had to be tried. “The way things are done has not been getting results. We have to try new methods,” she said. ...

https://theintercept.com/2018/11/13/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-sunrise-activists-nancy-pelosi/

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9

Consequences / Re: Wildfires

« on: November 13, 2018, 08:15:32 PM »

There has been no proof that wildfires and global warming have any connection besides in the media. There is more cost of damage because there are more people and more property than before.

Yes, it's all a coincidence. Let's just wait until the proof is in... 

there is already enough proof and i as well vote to put most weight and energy to communicate clear cases than provide ammunition the the retarded who question anything without proof and catch the vast majority with no own knowledge and opinion.

BTW that is exactly of what trumps followership consists, of a vast number of people who fall for what they want to hear and doubt any facts even those with proof (lying to themselves)

i think it's clear what i want to say, doomsday pictures about things that would happen perhaps less often but still happen even when i new ice age would approach, are not best suited to convince the big REST of the population.

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires

« on: November 13, 2018, 07:40:30 PM »

Wildfires are likely to continue to outpace recent projections because the underlying global climate models used underestimate precipitation changes in California, including periods of prolonged drought.

California’s Wildfire and Climate Change Warnings Are Still Too Conservative, Scientist Says
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13112018/california-deadliest-wildfire-climate-change-warnings-firefighting-costs-too-conservative-scientists?

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The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out

« on: November 12, 2018, 08:22:34 PM »

Well. What just happened?

I'm not sure why you're so surprised.  I objected to Dore's style and pushing rhetoric like Feinstein=Gingrich.  I have stated many times that I agree with most of his policy goals.  One key difference is that I supported Clinton over Trump (but also Bernie over Clinton).  Other than that, I have simply analyzed the America that I see.  You seemed to mistake it for the America I want.

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The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out

« on: November 10, 2018, 06:52:30 PM »

Then all the POLLS must be wrong.

Some of the polls are probably wrong.  Most are probably right.  How we interpret them is a different matter.

Single payer healthcare and medicare for all are not necessarily the same thing.  A great majority wants medicare for all, but when it is actually proposed and paired with a federal tax hike, support dwindles.  Medicare for all (or "public option") preserves private health insurance.  Single payer does not.

Medicare-for-all gets nearly two-thirds support, but a “single-payer health insurance system” is a little more divisive: 48 percent have a positive reaction, and 32 percent have a negative reaction; the gap between favor and disfavor closes considerably. Medicare buy-ins poll the highest, with the support of three-fourths of Americans, including 6 out of 10 Republicans.

You could absolutely argue these numbers still seem pretty strong for single-payer described as such, given the conventional wisdom that such a plan is unworkable. But it is undoubtedly true that Medicare-for-all, as a slogan, is more popular — as are some of these more incremental policies, like giving people the option of buying into Medicare.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/2/17468448/medicare-for-all-single-payer-health-care-2018-elections

Same with free college tuition.  Conservatives want that too.  But they don't want to raise their taxes to pay for it.

Just 57 percent of free higher ed supporters would agree to coughing up more for Uncle Sam to get there.

https://www.ozy.com/acumen/ozy-poll-free-college-for-everyone/80096

That's the main point I am making.  Conservatives support progressive ideas generally, but are opposed to the costs of their implementation.  It's a problem that can't be wished away.

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires

« on: November 10, 2018, 02:48:01 PM »

Unlikely to make a difference, unfortunately. Check out Trump's tweet:

There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor. Billions of dollars are given each year, with so many lives lost, all because of gross mismanagement of the forests. Remedy now, or no more Fed payments!

I am absolutely no fan from Trump but here hé has a point.
Every year there are big fires in California and every time it seems to be a surprise. You can do nothing and blame Global warming or you can act on it and try to prevent.
I am living in the Netherlands and this would never happen over here.

No, Trump doesn't have a point. Trump's pissed because California is a progressive state that can't stand him or his policies. It's a state that kicked his ass in 2016, and kicked it even harder last Tuesday. It's a state that has Hollywood and Silicon Valley, places that neither need nor want his and the GOP's regressive bullshit. It's a state with millions of minorities. His tone-deaf, brain-dead, asshole remarks about the fires weren't to make a point; they were to childishly lash out against tens of millions of people who will never bow and scrape before him. Period.

From a strictly logical point of view, blaming forestry mismanagement for the rapidly increasing number of large, destructive, and deadly blazes in the state (and entire Southwest) is about as stupid as blaming Oklahoma farmers for tornadoes.

The man is an imbecile.

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires

« on: November 10, 2018, 01:23:30 PM »

I have expressed my views privately to Neven and Jim P, so all I will say is I concur with Gerontocrat completely on this. In my opinion, the original post nr 605 contained no redeeming rationale whatsoever. For the record I consider the planet's situation as nothing less than an energing existential crisis, happening mostly in slow motion - I am no denier. However, there are better ways to wish for people to become activated - not wishing harm or suffering, or suggesting it would helpful for it to happen here or there.
RC

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires

« on: November 10, 2018, 12:51:43 PM »

Because Lurk has responded, I'll let the FO stand.

Is it such a controversial opinion to say that if catastrophes are needed to wake people up (both climate risk deniers and 'moderates' who believe AGW is real, but essentially don't want to see the status quo changed in any menaingful way), then so be it? I mean, it's out of our hands anyway.

Maybe Lurk has a point - there is a saying "it it ain't broke, don't fix it". This can be changed to "people won't fix it 'til it's broke".

However, to gloat over an event which included people being burnt to death while trying to escape in their autos does not seem acceptable, at least to me.

Quote from Lurk:-

If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.

That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.

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The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out

« on: November 09, 2018, 04:27:26 PM »

I take it you support Pelosi and Feinstein?

Nope.  I think both should be replaced.  Pelosi being leader for 15 years is reason enough.  But I don't have a preconceived loathing of them, which is what's required to think Dore is funny or insightful in those clips.

His main ethos (which you obviously share) seems to be that running on progressive ideas like medicare for all and free college tuition will win elections.  I support those positions, but assuming that corporate democrats, independents, and conservatives are going to suddenly come to their senses is magical thinking.  78 Justice Democrats tried that, and less than 10% were elected to office.  American ideas are deeply entrenched.  Unless you want to murder the over 55 white population, socialism has a very steep path to gain a majority.  There are too many American-exceptionalist theocrats.  Progressive ideas will grow mostly through demographic change, which will take time.  Some pieces will come sooner, probably medicare for all.  Someone like Bernie may win the presidency, but socialists won't get control of government without help from Democrats in red states.  We should promote socialism, but pontificating like Dore is a waste of time.

Lurk telling me about sophistry and logical fallacies makes me laugh more than Dore.

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 09, 2018, 03:40:08 PM »

Trump would like the US to become more like Putin's Russia where journalist who ask difficult questions are murdered.

Oh really?
President Trump would like journalists who ask difficult questions murdered.
How nice of you to say so.

I sure do hope the NSA has 'your number' and are keeping an eye on you ..... and I do hope Neven didn't 'cull' my little comment on Paranoia. Such basic education to raise awareness really is needed imo.

Noted: You can't quote me without subtly changing my words

Also noted is that a comparison of Trumps direction and Putin's reality is what lights your fire.

As for your subtle threat about the NSA I think I'm OK as long as I don't mention Bomb, President, IED, attack, plane, Jihad, Allah, Plutonium or detonator especially in one sentence and post that online. And as for paranoia I use my real name and my profile has my E-Mail address with my domain that is easily traceable. I have nothing to hide do you?   

What's your real name Lurk?, what are your hiding from from?

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 09, 2018, 01:24:07 PM »

It's pretty clear the WH doctored the video.

One more time- it wasn't the WH. And Acosta was being an ass.

It wasn't the Whitehouse but they still haven't apologised for peddling a lie or admitted their mistake. Yet here you are defending them.

What you are defending is a would be tyrant who is trying to overpower one of the fundamental pillars of democracy. Until now the executive was answerable to the people in some way, Trump would like the US to become more like Putin's Russia where journalist who ask difficult questions are murdered. If people don't stand up to him this is what will happen and those that enable him in any way must be opposed.

PS Don't bother with a reply to me, I have had my say and just don't have time to waste on you.

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 09, 2018, 01:09:16 PM »

There is NOTHING that is below lying fake Christian Sarah Huckabee.  Nothing.  I hope she enjoys her last year/months lying from the podium.  The good thing for her is that FOX News is always looking for a few fake Christians to lie for them.  She should have no problem working for them.  She will fit in perfectly.

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 09, 2018, 09:46:03 AM »

Bad Journalism, does that include when the administration releases a doctored video ?

https://twitter.com/aymanndotcom/status/1060407290472398849

The intern's reach for the mic is slowed down, and the "chop" motion is accelerated. Here's an annotated side by side comparison:

Here's the video released by Sarah Sanders:
https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265

Spot on NevB.
This is another close look at this :



It's pretty clear the WH doctored the video.

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The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out

« on: November 09, 2018, 12:27:11 AM »

Jimmy Dore equates Feinstein to Gingrich because she gave a vague acceptance speech with no policy specifics.  That kind of petty "analysis" won't be keeping anyone up at night.  How shallow, visionless, ethically challenged and intellectually dishonest do you have to be to venerate Jimmy Dore?

At least Uygur presents some rational arguments. 

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The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands

« on: November 08, 2018, 10:14:01 PM »

Massacre by proxy: "there is an American imprint on every single civilian death inside Yemen."

"We sell them the bombs, we help them with the targeting, we fuel their planes in mid-air, and we give them moral cover ... We also have made no meaningful effort at all to try to find a path to peace."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/05/there-is-an-american-imprint-on-every-single-civilian-death-inside-yemen/

sidd

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 08, 2018, 09:37:45 PM »

More blood on the hands of FOX News hosts like Laura Ingraha, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and others at FOX.  When will FOX stop lying about reasonable gun control?

Donald Trump wants churches to have guns.  Now I suppose Trump and his enablers at FOX want waitresses to carry guns.

When will FOX News stop campaigning for Donald Trump?  When will FOX stop enabling Donald Trump?  When will FOX stop lying about global warming?

FOX News:  “Where truth and journalism are dead.”

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 08, 2018, 01:25:41 PM »

Bad Journalism, does that include when the administration releases a doctored video ?

https://twitter.com/aymanndotcom/status/1060407290472398849

The intern's reach for the mic is slowed down, and the "chop" motion is accelerated. Here's an annotated side by side comparison:

Here's the video released by Sarah Sanders:
https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1060374680991883265

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25

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: November 06, 2018, 11:55:12 AM »

I don't ignore anyone .. but I wonder are the posters that post voluminous crap kept going so that the forum dies .. I begin to think Neven wants this forum to die by driving away the likes of A-team while defending the right of others to fill page after page with pet theories . No ? What use a forum filled with the thoughts of the mad and the bad ?
please igmore
b.c.

Yea, it's the volume.
For long I kept the same policy of not ignoring anyone, but have slipped. I guess my first ignored member was none other than ASLR. This I did for I did want to follow discussion on ENSO, without scrolling through his daily updates... Still checked many other posts by him. Political threads here are the same as elsewhere, nowadays I won't read responses though I still post on them. Plenty of those who peruse those threads are on my ignore list. I indeed looks like Neven likes those threads on occasion but I don't have to go there.

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The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: November 06, 2018, 10:36:07 AM »

I don't ignore anyone .. but I wonder are the posters that post voluminous crap kept going so that the forum dies .. I begin to think Neven wants this forum to die by driving away the likes of A-team while defending the right of others to fill page after page with pet theories . No ? What use a forum filled with the thoughts of the mad and the bad ?
please igmore
b.c.

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27

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: November 06, 2018, 07:19:09 AM »

The ultimate scenario is 1478 members ignoring each other. I managed to ignore the comment I posted and the thread ASLR mentioned above, without killfiles.

But I do think that threads that start with a clear condescending intent of shutting down discussions, should be moderated. AGW is no joke.

Edit; howto ignore myself; read my follow up comment below.

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Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion

« on: November 05, 2018, 01:19:46 PM »

I will also reply later today, but just wanted to say that if you read my previous comment carefully, you'll see I'm not making an '"ultra rich" boogeyman'-argument. The rich are just as much a victim of this system as the poor, in some ways they even have it worse.

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism

« on: November 04, 2018, 02:10:23 PM »

I'm not sure what's better here. Rob on the verge of supporting an ISIS member to prove a point.  Or the irony of him requesting a formalized "innocent until proven guilty".
Just to remind our readers, Rob is a man who calls for war against nations based on evidence from open-sourced journalism. Rob is okay with bombing the shit out of countries because some non-arabic gamer in England posted a bunch of pictures with ms paint red circles. But when someone admits to being an ISIS member, talks about raping kurds, posts pictures of decapitated kurds - it's time give this guy the benefit of the doubt. Due process suddenly becomes important.


Those are the FACTS

One of the biggest myths on the internet is that SCREAMING SOMETHING IN ALL-CAPS makes one right.

You should have learned that by now.

As Neven has suggested to you, Zizek, even those who might agree with some--or even most--of your points generally find it difficult to publicly side with someone who spouts non-stop invective and ad hominem attacks. Debate the facts with facts. Argue the points with research. Rebut the poster with watertight logic. Anything less than that makes you easy to ignore, as easy to ignore as the crazy man at the corner dressed like a thrift-shop Moses and shouting that the end of the world is nigh.

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Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 14, 2018, 08:15:41 PM »

?

Arch, how do you square that assessment of Scott's performance with the article Sig just cited? :

No Food, No FEMA: Hurricane Michael’s Survivors Are Furious

    "The destruction is everywhere, at every corner, as far as the eye can see. Mexico Beach, where the hurricane’s eyewall slammed into Florida with 140 mph winds, is flattened. Panama City, gem of the Emerald Coast, looks like a bomb has been dropped on it. It is now a desolate landscape of toppled power poles, transformers, electrical lines, severed trees, and metal roofings, twisted and tangled into a sea of debris. Nearly all homes, businesses, stores, banks, schools are severely damaged or destroyed, skeletal remains with blown out windows or crushed facades. To residents, it is unrecognizable.
    ...
    Since the storm, there’s been no electricity and no water in Panama City. Emergency disaster relief was yet to be seen in strength as of Saturday morning and residents were growing more frustrated and desperate.

    Chantelle Goolspy sat in her car making phone calls to get help. Goolspy and many of her neighbors live in a public housing area in downtown Panama City that was badly devastated.

    “We’re in need of food, water, anything, we’re not getting any help. The whole street needs help,” Goolspy told the Red Cross. “FEMA referred me to you. That person told me to call 211.” ..."

https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-food-no-fema-hurricane-michaels-survivors-are-furious

the government can hardly admit a catastrophy that is related to something they deny it's happening [sarc]

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31

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 11:05:29 AM »

Neil

I'm absolutely fine with all that and thoroughly enjoy the lively debates on this and other strings. Hearing different views opens minds.

What I took exception to in the quote above was the description of the users of this highly respected forum as "simpletons" albeit in a financial context. It's certainly not insulting to hold radically different views on issues as uncertain as the fate of Tesla but there's no need to suggest that the broader audience enjoying the banter is unable to understand the argument.

So I'm in no way trying to shut down the argument. Far from it. But I think forum users should be treated with a little more respect.

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32

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 10:53:10 AM »

giggles. y'all would have been babbling profusely about the unsinkableness of the titanic while your bodies started to shut down from the chilly north atlantic. there is no way tesla built as many cars as you are claiming. its just some nonsense musk told fred to write.

I get it that one can be a Tesla skeptic, while still being a well-meaning environmentalist. I get it that Tesla does many things wrong. I get it that Musk tends to embellish the truth from time to time. I get it that someone decides to be short Tesla.
What I don't get is where you find that utter confidence that makes you write complete nonsense like thie bolded statement, which undermines a lot of things you write that could make sense.
The number of cars Tesla builds is tracked quite well and appears in its audited quarterly reports, on which you base your arguments of eternal losses. Fred has been reporting leaked numbers all throughout Q3 which turned out to be spot on when the oficial numbers came out. Moreover, the numbers Fred mentioned are not even high, they come out to less than 5000 a week, and are only slightly higher than the average rate throughout Q3.
When you first started posting anti-Tesla stuff I treated you as a credible source of objective criticism, and took to digging in your sources to find the truth of them. When I did find errors in them I found out you cared nothing about that. I have learned over time to discount mostly everything you write about Tesla as being hatred-driven slander. Moreover, your posts here are full of disrespecting terms and name-calling. This is why you are considered a troll in this thread, not because you are negative or short but because the hatred blinds you and makes you constantly lash out.

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33

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 10:51:02 AM »

Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help....

That's just unacceptably insulting!

Sorry I have to disagree.  It is what GSY actually believes and if people are willing to be taken in then you can't quite say they are all astrophysicist's can you?

I support the right to the opinion, although the harshness is sometimes over the top.  However I do want the opinion to be backed up with a bit more than sheer hatred of a person.  That is not constructive.

I have become significantly unhappy about the way people have begun to say "I find that insulting" to shut down a line of argument or conversation.  I'm not saying that this is your case, because GSY has been pretty damned insulting over time here, but I won't support that line of argument when a robust debate is going on.

My take is destroy the argument, not try to stop it because I have become "insulted".  In that instance a thicker skin is required to debate.

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34

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 10:45:24 AM »

I'm not anti-Tesla cuz I'm short...I'm short cuz Tesla is fundamentally unprofitable, textbook over-valued, and likely highly fraudulent.

Live by the short, die by the short....

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35

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 10:44:30 AM »

As the old saying goes, "We lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume."

You do realise that the Q1-Q2 loss reports do not make your case?  My expectation is that when we look at that chart again after the Q3 results, it will make your case even less.

There was a MASSIVE bump in production between Q1 and Q2, yet a very MODERATE increase in the loss.  That means the additional vehicles manufactured were profitable.  Even worse, there were 11,000 odd vehicles in which the manufacturing was incorporated in the loss but the sales were not completed.

I told you before you were cherry picking on the charts you submit then drawing invalid conclusions.  OK this is not cherry picked but the conclusion is certainly not valid.

Go get me an analysis of a totally new line for a fully set up company and tell me how much it loses for how long.  It takes a minimum of half a decade for a company to make a profit when breaking into a new market which has even one dominant incumbent, let alone a brand spanking new company trying to break into a market with so many dominant incumbents that the US car companies are constantly on the verge of going bust.

Just go back and work out how long it took Microsoft to become profitable with the xBox.  In fact if it were not for the Games, Microsoft would probably still not make a profit on it.  If it had been another company trying to be like Sony, they would have gone bust in the first decade.

You posted a list of companies which had not made a profit, run by Musk.  Now give me a list of companies run by Musk that are older than 25 years!  You act as if Musk is some Playboy who took over an established company and drove it into the ground by borrowing money and not delivering.

You might want to read the wiki description on a start up company.

A startup or start-up is started by individual founders or entrepreneurs to search for a repeatable and scalable business model. More specifically, a startup is a newly emerged business venture that aims to develop a viable business model to meet a marketplace need or problem. Founders design startups to effectively develop and validate a scalable business model.[1][2] Hence, the concepts of startups and entrepreneurship are similar. However, entrepreneurship refers all new businesses, including self-employment and businesses that never intend to grow big or become registered, while startups refer to new businesses that intend to grow beyond the solo founder, have employees, and intend to grow large[3]. Start-ups face high uncertainty [4] and do have high rates of failure, but the minority that go on to be successful companies have to potential to become large and influential

Shorts have become so used to shorting tech companies that they forget that they can, quite literally, destroy nascent companies simply by blocking their access to raise capital from the markets.

That, in my mind, is trading to deliberately damage investors and that is "supposed" to be illegal.

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36

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 08:57:44 AM »

Lie. Cheat. Lie. Lie. Distract well meaning climate activist simpletons with a solution that doesn't really help....

That's just unacceptably insulting!

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37

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure

« on: October 13, 2018, 06:35:28 AM »

Geez. What did Tesla every do wrong to you ?
Are you a short-seller ?

Yes, I own low strike price put options dated from next week thru jan 2020.

Ah. That explains it.

Means we still need to endure you pissing on Tesla on this fine forum for another year and 3 months ?

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38

Policy and solutions / Re: Who owns the North Pole?

« on: October 12, 2018, 11:44:51 PM »

I'm kinda confused. Do you consider it offensive to suggest that Jews are successful at owning things? 

Considering that this has been a slander against jews for quite a long time, that they "own the world" and other such nonsense, then yes, certainly this was offensive.

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39

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 11:10:36 PM »

Tor


Let us know if you're OK.


Thanks
Terry

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40

Policy and solutions / Re: Who owns the North Pole?

« on: October 12, 2018, 08:20:58 PM »

I hope we agree that the north pole should be a sanctuary like Antartica is. And I guess this is not the right time to make stupid jokes related to WWII ideology now that so many people are triing to push us in the same mental configuration, just maybe not with the same enemy. Even if you just share that we were wrong about them, they are good people, but other type of people are not, you activate behaviors that I hope never to see again.

Could you expand on the bolded?
I think I'm fully in agreement, but having it spelled out would help.
Thanks


I do think we're a little late for an Arctic Sanctuary. Too much development in place by some. Too much political baggage devoted to "ownership" by others.
I can't even imagine where or how it could begin.
Terry

Germany has many issues with the AFD, which has many things in common with right extremist groups. There are many similitudes with speaches that are done right now and what has been done in the 1930'. The US also have issues with the alt right, democracy isn't working so well in many democratic countries.
When there was that comment that the bears own the north pole, possibly a religious group, but he thinks the bears, I wanted to stress that creating connections between religious groups, racial groups, whatever kind of group brings us back to a speach were people are not considered as people anymore, but are classified according to whatever parameter can be selected for a specific purpose.
That type of comments creates as first reaction, not that religious group, but other ones, and that's what right extremists want, lets get together to fight the devil which can clearly be indentified as people carrying this specific parameter.
People are catch in a system, just like we all are, that is disrupting climate, I believe that only respect and solidarity could help, and avoiding stupid jokes is the first step. Maybe we can laugh of everything, but not everywhere, and Internet is the first place where we have to be careful.

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41

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 02:55:50 AM »

Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....
This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion

The damage to the base is catastrophic. In this and other videos the damage seems far above the usual major hurricane damage. I guess luck plays a factor, but this one was a real monster.
On a side note, IMHO these aircraft should have been evacuated ahead of the storm. On the other hand, 3 days before it hit Michael was forecast to be a tropical storm at landfall, and 1 day before it was still a Cat 1, so they probably didn't have enough time to prepare.
I think what feels like a relatively new phenomenon is the ease and suddenness of rapid intensification into a major hurricane, fueled by the warm water which seems to be just about everywhere.

Edit: it seems most aircraft were able to escape to areas unaffected by the storm, but some were  left behind because they were not capable of flight.

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42

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 02:29:14 AM »

Gotta say I’m pretty rattled here in Tampa after going through Irma last year and seeing what Michael has wrought in the Panhandle.  The pics and reports of impact speak for themselves.  It’s not hyperbole to say these intense cyclones we’ve observed globally over recent years are becoming routine, with the increasing amount of heat available in the tropical basins.

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43

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 01:36:18 AM »

Re: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg176617.html#msg176617
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town ....

... Afterward, [a survivor] sat in the shade and broke down. "I know, but we can rebuild it," a FEMA rescuer said, putting his arm around her.   

Although I feel for the survivors, this is the root of the problem.

Rebuilding, only to have it swept away in 10 or 20 years by rising sea and fiercer storms is not a rational plan.

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44

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 01:13:51 AM »

Tyndall Air Force Base In Ruins After Michael, Fighter Jets Seen Inside Roofless Hangars

Tyndall Air Force Base took a direct hit from Hurricane Michael, with its eye passing right overhead....

Supposedly, the wind gauge on the base broke after winds hit 135 mph and are now thought to have reached above 150mph or even greater. A reevaluation of meteorological data from many sources could even result in Michael being retroactively reclassified from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5 hurricane.

This Twitter video of a helicopter survey of the base shows just how bad the damage is ...
https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/videos/1460410770756992/UzpfSTIwMDk5OTQwMzQwNzA0MToxMDkxMDY3MzY0NDAwMjM2/

Major damage to F-22s. QF-16s and Mu-2s shoved into one another inside one of the base's large and now roofless hangars.

Infrastructure and aircraft damage = North of $ 1 Billion

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45

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 12, 2018, 12:53:20 AM »

”FEMA has no idea of the likelihood of rescuers finding survivors, or bodies, said spokesman Ignatius Carroll.  "We can't search every pile of rubble."
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town
http://news.trust.org/item/20181011210648-hl58c/


Massive relief and recovery effort unfolding on US 231 S. coming into Panama City.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1050458685921775621
Video clip at the link.

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46

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 11, 2018, 11:52:55 PM »

Jim
I'd just heard about the 1M mark & returned to post when I saw your post.


I don't thing the death toll of 6 is within an order of magnitude of where we'll end up.
I haven't been to Florida in decades, but for some reason this one feels like it's hitting very close to home.
Terry

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47

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018

« on: October 11, 2018, 09:00:50 PM »

The photos emerging are showing the worst hurricane devastation I've seen. We shouldn't need to be reminded that Tor lives somewhere in this region in order to feel compassion for the victims, regardless of who they voted for.
This wasn't a learning experience, this was a catastrophe.

Terry

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48

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")

« on: October 07, 2018, 07:26:59 AM »

In official Trumpistan news, it was said raping fellow Trumpistanians is now legal for people whose income is over 250000 dollars/year. It doesn't matter if you show your tax returns or not. "Unfortunately", says a discontented Party member, "I fall short of the limit, but what the heck is that judge doing behind me taking my trousers off?"

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49

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")

« on: October 07, 2018, 04:57:00 AM »

If you don't support or enable Trump, that rant wasn't directed at you.

At this point in time every delay in dealing with GHGs means more people and living things will die. No one knows exactly what the climate sensitivity to GHGs is but we are already at Miocene CO2 levels and there are enormous reserves of permafrost that will release massive amounts of CO2 when warming reaches 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And we all know that the albedo will drop when Arctic sea ice is gone in the summer. There are many amplifiers when warming passes 1.5 Celsius and because we are warming the climate very quickly the amplifiers will tend to go off one after another if we don't rapidly curtail GHG emissions.

This is life and death for millions of people. Delay and denial equal death. My rant above may seem rude and uncivil but it pales in comparison to what is happening right now in the U.S. Decisions are being made that will lead to untold amounts of suffering.

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50

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")

« on: October 07, 2018, 02:53:07 AM »

I'm not saying an economic decline won't happen..... I would like to see more evidence of this....

Ah.... you ain't watchin' all the lawsuits against the "don'T rump" administration efforts to poison various portions of the population & environment. Companies don't know if "don'T rump" stuff will last or anti-"don'T rump" stuff will grind all the "don'T rump" stuff into dust. Yeah, companies don't know how to set up their long term directions in their board meetings.

1 Like