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Messages - glennbuck

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:29:46 AM »
Tides, currents, upwelling, eddies. Others call it chaos. Point in case: The Fram Strait.

Give the GIF a click and give yourself some time to watch it.

2
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:00:53 AM »
Here we go. Give it a gentle click, please.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 05:33:33 PM »
By and large much of the north of Greenland & north Ellesmere is seeing air temperatures close to or below freezing. However microclimates can occur where combinations of downslope winds/no snow/open water can yield much higher temperatures. At Station Nord at over 81 North today the temperature has risen to 15.4 C. This localised warm value is currently not showing up on Nullschool. 

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:04:03 PM »
... How long would it take to float to the Russian coast or melt in the warm waters in the ESS/Laptev sea?
A couple years ago in the Test space thread, A-Team posted GIFs (link to an example)  that show sea ice 'drifting' during the winter.  It takes about 6 months to go half way across the Arctic (typically from near Siberia to the North Pole). For the ice to systematically go the other way would take quite a change in the dominant weather/climate system.

If I think the ice is moving fast, I need to put it in the context that the Arctic Ocean is larger than my bathtub.  Only in Nares Strait in the early winter do floes move up to 500 km in a week.  Pretty much everywhere else the ice takes its time to get to where it is going.  (Woyaya)

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 05, 2020, 10:02:10 AM »
Hypothetically what are the implications of the CAB breaking in half and 1-2 million km^2 heading for the Russian cost. How long would it take to float to the Russian coast or melt in the warm waters in the ESS/Laptev sea?
Best not deal with hypothetical scenarios too much. Why would only half be transported? And what would be the mechanism transporting it? Ice doesn't just float away. Also bear in mind the CAB is not an ice sheet, and is not cohesive. Breaking in half is not a good metaphor. All in all, I find the question meaningless.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:17:36 AM »
The Crack N. of G'land is becoming a regular feature .. click back thru the last few years on WV .. today is a good day so to do ..
  More concerning this year is the state of the ice between G'land and the pole .. clear view all the way today . Few significant floes , lots of mush and quite a lot of open water .
        https://go.nasa.gov/3k7KjVF  .. b.c.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:40:17 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?
I assume glennbuck meant the Wandel Sea.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wandel_Sea

8
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:58:07 AM »
Quote
Brandolini's law, also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, is an internet adage which emphasizes the difficulty of debunking bullshit: "The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it."

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law

We have this a lot here. I wish we wouldn't have this.

Walrus, i have homework for you. Read this:

On Bullshit is a 2005 book (originally a 1986 essay) by philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept and analyzes the applications of bullshit in the context of communication. Frankfurt determines that bullshit is speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care if what they say is true or false, but rather only cares whether their listener is persuaded.

Free to read here >> http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:06:09 PM »
It can be noted also that there is a surge event ongoing for the northern coast of Alaska. .. at least there is a surge of about 0.5 meters since the 27th of July at Prudhoe. Waves will pill up above, and as sea level is already high, tops of waves reach even higher level. As a side note, waters levels at Prudhoe are higher than in 2012. In 2019 waters levels were even higher than, now, but were not as long lasting.
Notice that the region just about 100 km farther westerly is a known hot spot for coastal erosion, consisting of permafrost soils - see below footage of Drew Point coastline damage...

https://youtu.be/b27eXPialt4?t=472

10
What would a BOE just below 1 million km^2 look like on a map of the Arctic, anyone have a map marked out with 1 million km^2 to look at thanks? To visualise this seasons BOE, i mean for the 2100 BOE when none of us will be around to see it according to the IPCC.

See this post (Reply #68) in the Maps thread for what 1,000,000 km2 looks like.

11
What would a BOE just below 1 million km^2 look like on a map of the Arctic, anyone have a map marked out with 1 million km^2 to look at thanks? To visualise this seasons BOE, i mean for the 2100 BOE when none of us will be around to see it according to the IPCC.

One handy bit of info that might help visualize this is that the entire cap north of 80 is an area about 3.8 M km^2, so 1M is roughly a quarter of that cap.  A quick calculation shows (I think), that the cap north of 85 would be about 1M km^2, but don't hold me to it.


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:50:53 PM »

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   


This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.
 

Is that an indication we could get a record low this year or a BOE!

I think very, very low possibility BOE, some possibilitiy of a record low, but more likely 2nd place, maybe even above.  2012 was a remarkable year, which could repeat, but when?
 
The history of this thread is littered with the shriveled carcasses of premature apocalyptic predictions. 

But what do I know?  My job is just rearranging the deckchairs...

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:55:37 PM »
NSIDC AREA data - a bit more..

The PLUME of minima from the last 10 years remaining area losses show that while the remaining area losses of 2012 and 2016 would produce a record low area, the same cannot be said for 2019.

With a range of outcomes spanning 0.8 million km2, for me it's far too early to be confident of any outcome.

The TABLE shows the current day's sea ice area compared with the minima of previous years.
Area is already blow the 1980's and 1990's minima, and the minima of the years 2000 to 2006.
Another 53k of area loss and its goodbye to the 2000's average minima.

Then there is a large gap of well over 400k to the next lowest minimum in 2013.

Tomorrow is another day

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:39:59 PM »
As, at he moment, extent ice losses are taking a breather, while area ice losses are not, here is   NSIDC Area data analysed as I d JAXA extent data.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  4,106,162 KM2 as at 28-Jul-2020

- Area loss on this day 100k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,260 k, 761 k, 09.0% more than the 10 year average of 8,499 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -315 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -456 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -237 k LESS than 2012
______________________________
On average 83.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 48 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.42 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
________________________________________________________

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 01:38:15 PM »
I wish we wouldn't get bogged down by the DMI N80 too much. It's a very easy to use tool but inaccurate, in that it gives very high weight to the Pole and very low weight to the 80 circle, as explained by interstitial above. I wish someone would make an identical tool, simple and easy to use and enabling quick comparison between years, but with accurate weighting. A challenge for a technically-minded user who wants to have a popular website?
Be that as it may, the uptick is indeed indicative of high temps around the pole - a look at FG's animation will easily explain why. There a strong WAA from the Atlantic side and Greenland in the direction of the Pole. The Pole is not in the middle of the Arctic Basic but much closer to the regions where the WAA is coming from, and the ice edge is quite north in that quadrant, even more than usual. This enables the temps to rise in the region of highest weighting. At the same time a lot of the extra ice this year is quite south in the direction of the Beaufort, thus not affecting the N80 measure at all. Add to that very high temps in land areas north of 80, such as Svalbard, Greenland and Ellesmere, with low weights but high departures from 0C.
Thus the uptick is not surprising, is indeed interesting and unusual, but still not a sign of the complete breakdown of the Arctic refrigerator mechanism. This too shall come I am sure, along with the dreaded BOE - but not this year. (I HOPE  :-X ).

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 01:43:57 AM »
So a cyclone starts laying waste to one third of the Arctic while the rest of the ice is bathed in direct sunshine while being caressed by warming winds...

What twisted mind thought up this scenario?

(image tweaked heavily for contrast on Photoshop)

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 26, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »
Dr John Campbell is very good, been reporting since January 2020 from the UK, called it a Pandemic in February. Lucky i seen it coming watching China in January and stockpiled food way before the March Toilet roll Apocolypse.

Thanks for sharing, Glenn. Subscribed!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:05:29 PM »
Doomerism or Realism

 All signs point to ever more powerful assaults on biodiversity in the next two decades, painting a dismal picture of the future of life, including human life.

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R. Ehrlich, and Rodolfo Dirzo
PNAS July 25, 2017 114 (30) E6089-E6096; first published July 10, 2017 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704949114

    Contributed by Paul R. Ehrlich, May 23, 2017 (sent for review March 28, 2017; reviewed by Thomas E. Lovejoy and Peter H. Raven)

https://www.pnas.org/content/114/30/E6089
There is a thread... the Holocene Extinction
 - https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2305.0.html

There is a thread... The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2800.0.html


19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 25, 2020, 05:09:33 PM »
What Do Global Death Patterns Reveal About the UK?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53279391

Most of us know that Boris & His Merry Men totally fucked up. Not so much behind the curve as on a totally different road (to perdition).

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 04:02:07 AM »
Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

 ??? interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

Thats really unlikely.  In fact the next few days will probably see the smallest drops we have seen in a long time.

While the CAA is getting crushed it's a small area of ice.

It's just a Battleground region because until 2007 it never melted out.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 06:52:29 PM »
I'll be deleting this later .. please don't engage with bbr re future ice ages etc on the melt thread .. it has been rinsed and repeated for the last 8 years .. by now Canada should be under an ice sheet .. b.c.

 ps .. high risk of your posts being deleted too .

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 06:14:03 PM »

Ah ok, my uncle talks about the Jet stream stopping and a mini ice age, whenever i talk to him about abrupt climate change. Did Professor James Hansen write something about the slowing of the Jet Stream?

There is a theory that (let's see if I can get this right) as ice melts and floods the northern seas with fresh water, it has the potential to slow down the Gulf Stream that flows from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic. The Gulf Stream keeps Europe much warmer than it would be otherwise. (Note that Rome, Italy and Chicago, US are about the same latitude. Stopping the Gulf Stream thus could make Europe get colder.

There is another theory about the Jet Stream getting less stable due to ice melting in the arctic, which can make the polar vortex break down. That can lead to cold snaps in the temperate areas.

Note: I'm using "theory" in the scientific sense here, not in the denialist, "don't believe it, it's just a theory" sense.

<I'll keep this one but no more discussions of ice age theories, not on this thread and not elsewhere. O>

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:59:08 PM »
Have we been discussing a thread on Aerosol masking effect from the Lockdown a global reduction in 20% of industrial activity can cause a 0.5 C to 1 C jump in global temperatures in a matter of months,
We have a discussion here, if that’s your question: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3202.0.html

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:33:12 PM »
To put some content around the amount of extent loss that has occurred over the past 24 days from June 29 through July 22, the table below shows the total extent loss for each year starting in 2001.  It also lists the percentage drop of the extent that year.

2020 leads in both extent loss (with more that 3.06 million km2) as well as percentage loss (33.4%). 

In terms of extent loss, 2007 and 2013 with losses of approximate 2.7 million, are about 300k behind 2020.  After that, the next closest year was 2019 with 2.44 million extent loss, approximately 600k behind 2020 for that period.

Year    Extent Loss    Percent Decline
2001   -1,630,836   -16.2%
2002   -2,148,569   -20.4%
2003   -1,945,950   -18.9%
2004   -1,604,575   -15.6%
2005   -2,038,679   -20.9%
2006   -1,806,967   -19.1%
2007   -2,716,544   -27.9%
2008   -2,096,592   -21.1%
2009   -2,406,101   -24.0%
2010   -1,559,462   -17.3%
2011   -2,364,505   -25.8%
2012   -2,240,915   -24.1%
2013   -2,725,735   -27.7%
2014   -1,998,228   -21.4%
2015   -2,325,684   -24.2%
2016   -1,956,457   -21.5%
2017   -2,145,284   -23.3%
2018   -2,032,152   -21.4%
2019   -2,444,626   -26.6%
2020   -3,063,773   -33.4%

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2020, 01:02:58 AM »
I vote 2020-2025 tried to vote on graph but does not seem to work.
voting closed 2018

26
Welcome, glennbuck.

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