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Messages - pikaia

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Arctic sea ice / Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: December 18, 2019, 06:01:09 PM »

I build up an Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume (NRT SIV) product based on merged data from SMOS and Cyrosat2. To make it very simple, i decide to use mean sea ice thickness(SIT) and extent(SIE) data from NSIDC, beside this, it would also be possible by grid by grid methode, but since in winter, sea ice concentration (SIC) has not much variance over the domain, its seem unlikely that much differences would occur.

First things first, some Explantion:

SIV:  Daily
SIT:  5 five-day trailing average
SIE:  5 five-day trailing average

Its because of the merged SIT is just in a 5 five-day trailing average format accessible, therefor its also used for SIE and the final product SIV. What does this mean?

SIV(5 Nov): SIT(mean(1-5Nov))*SIE(mean(1-5Nov))

Some Plots:

SIV 2011-2018

NRT SIV vs. Cyrosat2 and PIOMAS (Okt to May)

Open Points for Future:
- Uncertainy-Bads from merged SMOS-Cyrosat2
- Testing other SIE like Uni-Bremen
- Melt-Saison-Model

Data-Source: ->analysis_sea_ice_thickness CS2SMOS merged sea_ice_thicknes -> ea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx -> 5 five-day trailing average

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 14, 2019, 06:42:58 AM »
Back to some English opinions on Brexit with a music video. All too elaborate, say the commenters.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: December 11, 2019, 12:06:54 PM »
So that explains it!

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 27, 2019, 01:27:31 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Performance vs Rivals: M3, C63 S & Giulia QV (EXTENDED) | Top Gear : Series 27

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:20:00 PM »
I like using both the maximum and the minimum to glimpse into the future of the ice. Attached is an animation using the intersection of the trendlines of maximum volume and volume loss from 2007 to 2019.  Date of intersection estimated by sight, but it shouldn't be off by more than 1 year.

2032 has indeed been remarkably stable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 25, 2019, 03:22:29 PM »
Glacier rivers from above (Iceland)

Link >>

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: September 13, 2019, 08:57:31 AM »
my response to the biggest lego copy of Titanic .. built by a boy on 'the autistic spectrum ' .. 'watch out , I've got Icebergers .. '

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: September 01, 2019, 12:49:54 AM »
Leaked Draft of U.N. Climate Report Says Warming Oceans Are ‘Poised to Unleash Misery’
The report, which leaked to the French News agency AFP and focuses on the oceans and the planet’s stores of frozen water known as the cryosphere, states that if warming isn’t halted at 1.5 degrees Celsius, sea levels will rise high enough to displace around 280 million people. (If perspective is needed, that’s four times the current number of worldwide refugees, which is a record high. And that’s to say nothing of other forms of climate displacement.) By 2100, the draft states that “annual flood damages are expected to increase by two to three orders of magnitude.” That means flood damages will increase either 100- or 1,000-fold — in a world where king tides are already causing cities like Miami to flood on a regular basis, and where Indonesia just announced announced a new inland capital because Jakarta is sinking. By 2050, low-lying cities and small island nations will face “extreme sea-level events” every year. At two degrees, the report anticipates that the frequency of extreme El Niño events will double, leading to greater risk of forest fires and cyclones.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: August 25, 2019, 11:29:45 AM »
The proposal of the Dolt in Office to buy Greenland might fit here. The price of the piece of real estate should be estimated though.
The 2,850,000 cubic kilometers of frozen mineral water translates to about 3,8*10^15€, not counting the expense invested in freezing the stuff. This may be estimated by the energy requirement to freeze 20 degree regular water. Then there are the fishes the value of which could be estimated by multiplying a normal 3* restaurant meal by 8, as one fish is split to so many pieces. I don't know what a valid price for a live polar bear is, but this is a minor expense compared to fish. Then there are the few rivers that can be harnessed for energy, so their lifetimes entire potential energy should also be compensated.

Well you get the idea.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 06, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »
Some footage from the floods in Russia. In just a couple minutes the water was a couple meters high.  Looks like a tsunami.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2019, 10:20:51 AM »
The NSIDC NT Arctic Sea Ice Area annual minimum is now (2019-07-31) lower than any year before 2007 with still 5-6 weeks to to go.

Here are the bottom 20 rankings:

NH Area
1 2012-09-12 2.228429
2 2016-09-06 2.463209
3 2011-09-05 2.916451
4 2007-09-07 2.954993
5 2017-09-11 3.000742
6 2010-09-07 3.071674
7 2008-09-08 3.079552
8 2015-09-07 3.139137
9 2018-09-09 3.235357
10 2009-09-08 3.547109
11 2014-09-09 3.576643
12 2013-09-08 3.607877
13 2019-07-31 4.026394
14 2006-09-22 4.082958
15 2002-09-05 4.098445
16 2005-09-03 4.134433
17 2003-09-05 4.155104
18 2000-09-03 4.235279
19 1999-09-16 4.318875
20 1998-09-11 4.346996

Extent is a bit less extreme: 2019 has not entered the bottom 20.

NH Extent
1 2012-09-16 3.339905
2 2016-09-07 4.144993
3 2007-09-14 4.146931
4 2011-09-08 4.332572
5 2015-09-08 4.387092
6 2008-09-18 4.548265
7 2010-09-19 4.589683
8 2018-09-21 4.630291
9 2017-09-13 4.634885
10 2014-09-16 4.988244
11 2013-09-13 5.039617
12 2009-09-12 5.046571
13 2005-09-20 5.314284
14 2002-09-18 5.625038
15 1999-09-12 5.676431
16 2006-09-14 5.746404
17 2004-09-18 5.770495
18 2000-09-11 5.942586
19 2003-09-17 5.969052
20 1990-09-21 6.010841
21 1995-09-04 6.012446
22 1993-09-13 6.161196
23 2019-07-31 6.192291

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 31, 2019, 09:18:43 PM »
The "Smoking Hills" of the North West Territories have been burning for a very long time. Coal and sulfur don't make stable neighbors and the fires had been burning long before Franklin noted them in 1826.
Rain might douse the fire, but it also fires up the sulfur. The nearest village is named Paulatuk or Place of Coal.

Burning Mountain in New South Wales, Australia is a coal fire that has been burning for ~6,000 years while in Germany Brennender Berg's coal seam was only ignited in 1688.

I assume that more than a few of these peat fires may continue for an equally long duration.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:49:16 AM »
That is a huge change for only 16 days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 01:19:39 AM »
   ^^ How does one accumulate wind ? I assume it's outside the body ? .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 02:19:03 PM »
June 1-28

Trailing 5-day median

Click to animate

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: June 28, 2019, 04:23:46 AM »
I'd add the 60's ('protect all the uncommon species') and the 70's  (get rid of poisonous waste chemicals) versions too.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 22, 2019, 09:55:41 PM »
Melting snowman agrees! Uncanny...

I don't know much about meteorology, but this just doesn't look right!

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: May 20, 2019, 10:57:25 AM »
Eulagisca gigantea, a giant polynoid worm also known as an Antarctic scale worm, is a species of marine polychaete worm belonging to the family Polynoidae, the scale worms. This species is found on the seabed in the Southern Ocean

Link >>

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: April 16, 2019, 02:43:27 AM »
A recent study shows that nitrous oxide emissions from thawing Alaskan permafrost are about twelve times higher than previously assumed.

This is clearly no laughing matter...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 23, 2019, 09:42:14 AM »
A pod of narwhal in the Arctic

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 08, 2019, 02:37:51 AM »
Hurricanes are strengthening faster in the Atlantic, and climate change is a big reason why, scientists say
Rapid intensification is generally measured by comparing the strength of a hurricane over a 24-hour period. A change in storm wind speed of greater than 35 mph in 24 hours is generally the cutoff.
By this measure, the five most destructive Atlantic storms of the past two years all went through rapid intensification:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: December 01, 2018, 12:19:56 AM »
For me, you can't beat a nice big symphony. Listen to the magical opening of Bruckner's 4th.

Classic KING-FM radio in Seattle, often plays Bruckner on their 3rd High Definition Digital Symphonic radio station. Yesterday, they played Bruckner's 7th Symphony. Three or four times I've dialed into the channel to hear Bruckner's 8th Symphony. Somebody at KING loves the 8th. 

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: November 27, 2018, 03:33:47 AM »
Not really the Arctic, but it's cold here.
First picture from Mars by InSight.

I thought this was funny.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 18, 2018, 04:12:37 PM »
Evacuation plan 'out the window' when fire hit California town
When a “megafire” engulfed Paradise, California, officials and residents had to abandon their evacuation plans and improvise new ways to save lives, learning lessons that could help the growing number of U.S. communities at risk to wildfires. ...

Southern California:
Why California Authorities Are Sharing This Terrifying Video of a Woman Escaping a Wildfire

California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire
Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 04, 2018, 02:17:24 PM »
Here's a graph of JAXA extent around each year's minimum, starting four weeks before the minimum, and subtracting the minimum extent.  (i.e., the X values are shifted so that the day of each year's minimum is Day 29, and the Y values are shifted so that each year's minimum extent is 0).

I had been thinking that the refreeze was off to a very slow start, and it's true that the past week has been abnormally slow -- but overall, 2018 is in the middle of the pack for refreeze.  What's more unusual is the very late minimum, and the looooooonnnngggg ssssslllllooooowwww approach to the minimum during late August/September.

Relatedly, I keep track of how many days each year spends within 500k km2 of its minimum.  (In other words, this is a metric of how flat or steep the curve is around each year's minimum.)  During the JAXA record (2002-present), the fewest days below this threshold was 25 (in 2010 and 2016) and the most days was 46 (in 2006).  2018 is currently at 42 days, tied for second place with 2003 ... but 2018 is still well below the threshold, so it could easily set a new record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2018, 05:41:37 AM »
With September now behind us, maybe one interesting JAXA tidbit: the daily average for September was -87. That's the only time this has happened in the 2005-2018 period, meaning it's the only time  the last day of September was lower than the last day of August.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 30, 2018, 02:38:13 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 September (5 day trailing average) =  3,437,807 km2

Slow area gain continues, so area now 231k less than 2017 on this day.

Total Area gain           9 k ,

Central Seas LOSS      8 k,                                 
Peripheral Seas gain   17 k, just about all in the Greenland Sea
Other Seas loss           0 k, all seas <5% of max.

Greenland Sea              gain     16k (62k in five days)
Canadian Archipelago    gain    14 k
East Siberian Sea (ESS) gain 10 k ,
Central Arctic Sea          loss  31 k, - 33k, 25 k, 14 k the days before. warmth / weather pushing polewards in the Atlantic front.

Freezing looks like it has taken hold. Attention switches to the pace of that freezing and where it is happening.

Note:-  Daily Extent went down by 21k on this day.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 21, 2018, 02:27:11 PM »
Amazing footage in this Reuters video of Helheim glacier: calving

Wow !

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:51:23 AM »
To A Team and all the other posters who give so generously of your knowledge and expertise:  I am a non-scientist who truly appreciates this forum.  For what it's worth, this is a great resource for people who want to learn even though we've never published a paper and never will.  I am sorry that those who would plagiarize and steal are discouraging free discussion.  Thank you, A Team.  Thank you, Neven.  Thank you to all of you.  Jessica

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 19, 2018, 09:57:24 AM »
Here is an animation of the last few days using the UH AMSR2 concentrations. I intentionally left it at the highest resolution, though made an effort to crop it. Click and zoom.
I think the arctic still has lots of relatively easy ice, rather southerly and low concentration, that could still melt out and take extent down quite a bit. It is mainly found in the ESS (huge potential), the CAA, the Beaufort, the Chukchi-facing CAB, and Foxe Basin. Alternatively, a long round of properly-oriented wind could cause an immense compaction event.
It's all up to the weather as usual, but don't bury this season just yet.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 04, 2018, 03:30:37 AM »
Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)
8/3/18, 5:20 AM
Historians will look back at page 9 of today's Times with great interest.
The combination of stories by @whippletom @emilygosden @bwebster135 et al is quite something...
Image below.  Links to the articles are in the twitter replies to the above link.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 15, 2018, 12:09:39 AM »
Thanks to pikaia & gerontocrat.
Phytoplankton in ther Chukchi Sea.
Had a look - here is the image

That's pretty compelling visual proof we are changing the chemistry of the planet. I saw a time lapsed animation of annual algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico that really demonstrated how much damage these things cause.
This is a leading cause of deoxygenation in the arctic. Carbon Brief covered this last month:
"How global warming is causing ocean oxygen levels to fall"
Research shows that human-caused global warming is the principal cause of marine oxygen loss. Humans also play an additional role through the input of nutrients to the oceans in coastal regions, though the individual processes at play are not straightforward to disentangle.

Warming affects the ocean and its dissolved oxygen content in several ways. Among other things, it influences the solubility of oxygen in the water. The warmer the water, the less gas that can dissolve in it.

Until now, this process mainly affected the upper few hundred meters of the oceans, which have been in contact with the atmosphere most recently. This effect explains up to 20% of the total marine oxygen loss so far and about 50% of that in the upper 1,000 metres of the oceans.

In addition, warming alters patterns of global ocean circulation, which affects the mixing of oxygen-rich surface waters with deeper oxygen-poor water. It also changes how quickly organisms metabolise and respire, which affects consumption of marine oxygen.

Finally, there are indirect impacts of warming on upper-ocean nutrient supply and subsequent production and downward export of organic matter available for respiration throughout the ocean.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 13, 2018, 05:06:25 PM »
For me, you can't beat a nice big symphony. Listen to the magical opening of Bruckner's 4th.
Yeah. But I didn''t like the horn's timbre. Maybe it's my "Bang & Olufsen" laptop speakers, not made for serious music.

Here's my favorite when driving through long mountain autobahn tunnels:

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: March 02, 2018, 05:19:45 AM »
Russian propaganda ! Be very afraid !

The images are from the senate staff report linked in,1974.msg144168.html#msg144168


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