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Messages - Bernard

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The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: January 10, 2020, 01:04:55 PM »
What could possibly go wrong?

A lot according to the American Astronomical Society.
& image below.

The Private Sector acting without thought for anyone other than themselves is likely screwing up a good deal of space science. & not just SpaceX. But Musk / SpaceX leads the charge. The sooner he goes to Mars the better.

Hi gerontocrat, that BBC article talks mostly about Starlink's potential "brightness of its satellites", which is (for LEO satellites) only an issue about 30 minutes after sunset and 30 before sunrise.

Knowing these facts, is that last remark (in bold) just a joke, or are you serious ? And if you are serious, please elaborate. Thanks !
Read previous posts concerning space debris. Satellites are machines, built by humans. As such, there is always a chance of a malfunction, and machines wear out. Put 40,000 satellites (built on a production line**) into LEO and the probability of malfunction uncontrollable from earth of some of these machines tends to certainty.

One day, nobody knows when, the sun will have a big burp pointing at earth, and 3 or 4 days later a significant solar wind/storm will arrive. Consequences? Not a clue. Do SpaceX and the other satellite  companies have a clue with tested plans in place? I dunno, but the brightness problem was not anticipated at all.

Optimism is great (I wish I had some of it). But when optimism morphs into recklessness? We are doing a pretty good job of screwing up life on earth. Will we screw up near space as well? If we do it's one of those things that can't be fixed.

** Production lines. Of every 40,000 Tesla 3 vehicles produced, how many were built with errors liable to cause malfunction? Error is inevitable. Satellites are complex machines operating in a harsher environment.
Just a reminder that Space is a difficult place to work in, even to get there.
2017 Space launches 2017
Country   Launches   Failures
USA                29   0
Russia        21   1
China        18   2
Europe          9   0
Japan          7   1
India                  5   1
New Zealand     1   1
Total               90   6

And from (to 2014)
Some descriptive statistics:
% Manned Failures in Manned, Entire Data Set = 1.64%
% Manned Failures in Manned, Last 20 Years = 0.79%
% Unmanned Failures in Unmanned, Entire Data Set = 8.08%
% Unmanned Failures in Unmanned, Last 20 Years = 6.68%

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: January 09, 2020, 07:56:07 PM »
But when The Elon calls a hero a child molester, that's acceptable behaviour. When he chops down a German forest, conservationists applaud. When Evo Morales is ousted by a right wing coup, Tesla's stock prices levitate even as the Left applauds.

Were Spacex to cause near earth orbits to sustain the horrors depicted (poorly) in the film "Gravity", his fumbling efforts to clean up the crime scene will be widely heralded and enormously rewarding.

He spends nothing on "advertising", but millions (that we know of) on "Public Relations". I'm amazed at how effective his self promotion campaign has become.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 05:11:10 PM »
I'm just glad the technology exists and there are people getting it. The more people get it, the better.

I think it is important to stop the accumulation, the growth economy. Green or black or whatever colour.
Earth's resources are not infinite. The poor get poorer. Mass extinction. Keeling curve accelerating. Habitat extinction. Ecosystem collapse... etc.
Those are effects of your accumulation and growth system.

Can we please stop this?

Going 'green' in the way you are advertising is feeding the very systems that we have to stop, to save an environment for humans and the ecosysytem functions they depend on, in order to not have the extinction of homo sapiens.
XR is sensible.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:53:40 PM »
Malizia II, a high-tech competition boat, of which initial cost of conception/construction is estimated by Wikipedia at 4 millions euros. Maybe carbon-free, but not money-free. (in French).

I guess there are three wholesome ways to cross the Atlantic: Carbon-free, or money-free, or in a coffin.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 12, 2019, 10:22:58 AM »
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.

Define "cool" 0 deg C, 32 deg F or 273.5 deg  K  ;D

It'd be cool if there was some kind of function that automatically converts everything.  ;)

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: February 23, 2019, 07:33:09 PM »
Environmentalists screaming the end of the world is nigh then it turns out to be a bit of variable data just makes the general population react by saying those environmentalists are always crying wolf and are increasingly likely to dismiss environmentalist views. So it is a bad idea and doesn't help the cause.

Totally agree with that.  However the long term trend is up and continues up.  I talk about this on other threads but the point is we are a LONG way from Kyoto, yet the Global annual average continues to climb.

For the last 5 years the global average (based on ESRL NOOA growth stats), show an average of 2.5ppm.  OK 2018 will continue to adjust, the same site had 2015 at over 3ppm at this time of year and then adjusted it down to 2.91.

However the trend is very clear.  This is the first 5 years in the record where no year recorded less than 2ppm growth.  If it were not for 2011, we would be almost at a decade where no year recorded a growth value less than 2ppm.  As it is we'll probably have to wait till 2022 before we see that particular domino fall.  Probably around the time we see the first reported year with 3ppm.

Whilst caution is a very good stance to take, we have had accord and treaty after accord and treaty and the only result has been an acceleration in the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The trend alone is, for some scientists, enough to produce very dire warnings.  Not only is CO2 still growing in the atmosphere, it is growing at an increasing rate.

Just when do you shout fire?  When you smell the smoke or when the flames are licking around your legs?  It is a problem because the population at large doesn't care about smoke and if you wait till the fire has really taken hold, then it's half past too late and nothing truly viable you can do about it.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: February 09, 2019, 01:09:06 PM »
how to make people aware that understanding what's going on behind those difficult-to-grasp images and data has a critical impact on their future?

You don't. If people don't ask independently they will not listen most likely anyway. So spear your breath i say.

When people ask you, you have already won. In this case, encourage them to stay curious.

When I was in the Army we used to be taught IA's.  Or otherwise known as Immediate Actions.  The Immediate Action on sensing a Nuclear Explosion was to turn away from the flash, fall to the ground and drag as much of your kit under you as possible.

We, being Squaddies, had an alternate IA.  Stick your head between your legs and kiss your Ass goodbye.  Which, we firmly believed, was as likely to result in the same end as the one we were being taught.

Honestly subject this to a risk analysis.  There are 7.6bn people on this world. Which means that no matter where you go and no matter how safe you think it is, there will be at least 6.6 bn people trying to kill you and take it away from you so that they can survive.

Unless you factor in defence in the sustainability factor, you can forget it.  Never mind the fact that a planet, which has decided that we are the biggest issue to it's survival, is going to fairly thoroughly get rid of us.

There are two ways to survive GW.

1. Leave the planet and start again in a strict controlled environment
2. Don't cause the problem in the first place.

Given that no more than a few million would be able to take option 1, option 2 is the most likely recourse to survive AGW.

Having reasoned that out, then you have to come to the conclusion that the "critical last stand" is here, now and this site is leading the charge.

So carry on leading and, perhaps, one day, we'll win.

Failing that you can do the Squaddies Alternate IA for a Nuclear explosion.  Any bit of land will do, no need to be picky.....

As I said that I would make a few posts (which I take to mean three posts today), I provide the following like to an article that cites research that confirms that current ice mass loss is contributing (see blue line in the attached image) to the drift of the Earth's rotational axis about the poles:

Scientists Identified Three Reasons Responsible for Earth’s Spin Axis Drift

Extract: "A typical desk globe is designed to be a geometric sphere and to rotate smoothly when you spin it. Our actual planet is far less perfect—in both shape and in rotation.

Earth is not a perfect sphere. When it rotates on its spin axis—an imaginary line that passes through the North and South Poles—it drifts and wobbles. These spin-axis movements are scientifically referred to as "polar motion." Measurements for the 20th century show that the spin axis drifted about 4 inches (10 centimeters) per year. Over the course of a century, that becomes more than 11 yards (10 meters).

Using observational and model-based data spanning the entire 20th century, NASA scientists have for the first time identified three broadly-categorized processes responsible for this drift—contemporary mass loss primarily in Greenland, glacial rebound, and mantle convection.

"The traditional explanation is that one process, glacial rebound, is responsible for this motion of Earth's spin axis. But recently, many researchers have speculated that other processes could have potentially large effects on it as well," said first author Surendra Adhikari of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California."

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 17, 2018, 06:45:49 PM »
In the forlorn hope that this post is not lost amongst all those about which dictator killed the most people...
Scores arrested as thousands block London bridges in climate rebellion
Protesters close five main bridges across Thames over extinction crisis in huge act of peaceful civil disobedience

Forty-five people have been arrested as thousands of demonstrators occupied five bridges in central London to voice their concern over the looming climate crisis.

Protesters including families and pensioners began massing on five of London’s main bridges from 10am on Saturday. An hour later all the crossings had been blocked in one of the biggest acts of peaceful civil disobedience in the UK in decades. Some people locked themselves together, while others linked arms and sang songs.

By 2pm the blockade of Southwark Bridge had been abandoned and protesters moved from there to Blackfriars Bridge, where organisers said they were soon to move west towards Westminster Bridge.

Demonstrators occupied Southwark, Blackfriars, Waterloo, Westminster and Lambeth bridges.

The Metropolitan police said all the bridges had since reopened. A spokesman said: “There have been over 70 arrests for obstruction of the Highway Act and Bail Act offences.

Extinction Rebellion, which cites the civil rights movement, suffragettes and Mahatma Gandhi as inspirations, said smaller events took place in other UK cities as well as overseas on Saturday.

Organisers say they are planning to escalate the campaigns from Wednesday, when small teams of activists will “swarm” around central London blocking roads and bridges, bringing widespread disruption to the capital.

“Given the scale of the ecological crisis we are facing this is the appropriate scale of expansion,” said Bradbrook. “Occupying the streets to bring about change as our ancestors have done before us. Only this kind of large-scale economic disruption can rapidly bring the government to the table to discuss our demands. We are prepared to risk it all for our futures.”

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