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Messages - Bernard

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1
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 12, 2019, 10:22:58 AM »
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.

2
Define "cool" 0 deg C, 32 deg F or 273.5 deg  K  ;D

3
It'd be cool if there was some kind of function that automatically converts everything.  ;)

4
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: February 23, 2019, 07:33:09 PM »
Environmentalists screaming the end of the world is nigh then it turns out to be a bit of variable data just makes the general population react by saying those environmentalists are always crying wolf and are increasingly likely to dismiss environmentalist views. So it is a bad idea and doesn't help the cause.

Totally agree with that.  However the long term trend is up and continues up.  I talk about this on other threads but the point is we are a LONG way from Kyoto, yet the Global annual average continues to climb.

For the last 5 years the global average (based on ESRL NOOA growth stats), show an average of 2.5ppm.  OK 2018 will continue to adjust, the same site had 2015 at over 3ppm at this time of year and then adjusted it down to 2.91.

However the trend is very clear.  This is the first 5 years in the record where no year recorded less than 2ppm growth.  If it were not for 2011, we would be almost at a decade where no year recorded a growth value less than 2ppm.  As it is we'll probably have to wait till 2022 before we see that particular domino fall.  Probably around the time we see the first reported year with 3ppm.

Whilst caution is a very good stance to take, we have had accord and treaty after accord and treaty and the only result has been an acceleration in the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The trend alone is, for some scientists, enough to produce very dire warnings.  Not only is CO2 still growing in the atmosphere, it is growing at an increasing rate.

Just when do you shout fire?  When you smell the smoke or when the flames are licking around your legs?  It is a problem because the population at large doesn't care about smoke and if you wait till the fire has really taken hold, then it's half past too late and nothing truly viable you can do about it.

5
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: February 09, 2019, 01:09:06 PM »
how to make people aware that understanding what's going on behind those difficult-to-grasp images and data has a critical impact on their future?

You don't. If people don't ask independently they will not listen most likely anyway. So spear your breath i say.

When people ask you, you have already won. In this case, encourage them to stay curious.

6
When I was in the Army we used to be taught IA's.  Or otherwise known as Immediate Actions.  The Immediate Action on sensing a Nuclear Explosion was to turn away from the flash, fall to the ground and drag as much of your kit under you as possible.

We, being Squaddies, had an alternate IA.  Stick your head between your legs and kiss your Ass goodbye.  Which, we firmly believed, was as likely to result in the same end as the one we were being taught.

Honestly subject this to a risk analysis.  There are 7.6bn people on this world. Which means that no matter where you go and no matter how safe you think it is, there will be at least 6.6 bn people trying to kill you and take it away from you so that they can survive.

Unless you factor in defence in the sustainability factor, you can forget it.  Never mind the fact that a planet, which has decided that we are the biggest issue to it's survival, is going to fairly thoroughly get rid of us.

There are two ways to survive GW.

1. Leave the planet and start again in a strict controlled environment
2. Don't cause the problem in the first place.

Given that no more than a few million would be able to take option 1, option 2 is the most likely recourse to survive AGW.

Having reasoned that out, then you have to come to the conclusion that the "critical last stand" is here, now and this site is leading the charge.

So carry on leading and, perhaps, one day, we'll win.

Failing that you can do the Squaddies Alternate IA for a Nuclear explosion.  Any bit of land will do, no need to be picky.....

7
As I said that I would make a few posts (which I take to mean three posts today), I provide the following like to an article that cites research that confirms that current ice mass loss is contributing (see blue line in the attached image) to the drift of the Earth's rotational axis about the poles:

Scientists Identified Three Reasons Responsible for Earth’s Spin Axis Drift

http://www.geologyin.com/2018/09/scientists-identified-three-reasons.html

Extract: "A typical desk globe is designed to be a geometric sphere and to rotate smoothly when you spin it. Our actual planet is far less perfect—in both shape and in rotation.

Earth is not a perfect sphere. When it rotates on its spin axis—an imaginary line that passes through the North and South Poles—it drifts and wobbles. These spin-axis movements are scientifically referred to as "polar motion." Measurements for the 20th century show that the spin axis drifted about 4 inches (10 centimeters) per year. Over the course of a century, that becomes more than 11 yards (10 meters).

Using observational and model-based data spanning the entire 20th century, NASA scientists have for the first time identified three broadly-categorized processes responsible for this drift—contemporary mass loss primarily in Greenland, glacial rebound, and mantle convection.

"The traditional explanation is that one process, glacial rebound, is responsible for this motion of Earth's spin axis. But recently, many researchers have speculated that other processes could have potentially large effects on it as well," said first author Surendra Adhikari of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California."

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 17, 2018, 06:45:49 PM »
In the forlorn hope that this post is not lost amongst all those about which dictator killed the most people...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/17/thousands-gather-to-block-london-bridges-in-climate-rebellion
Scores arrested as thousands block London bridges in climate rebellion
Protesters close five main bridges across Thames over extinction crisis in huge act of peaceful civil disobedience

Quote
Forty-five people have been arrested as thousands of demonstrators occupied five bridges in central London to voice their concern over the looming climate crisis.

Protesters including families and pensioners began massing on five of London’s main bridges from 10am on Saturday. An hour later all the crossings had been blocked in one of the biggest acts of peaceful civil disobedience in the UK in decades. Some people locked themselves together, while others linked arms and sang songs.

By 2pm the blockade of Southwark Bridge had been abandoned and protesters moved from there to Blackfriars Bridge, where organisers said they were soon to move west towards Westminster Bridge.

Demonstrators occupied Southwark, Blackfriars, Waterloo, Westminster and Lambeth bridges.

The Metropolitan police said all the bridges had since reopened. A spokesman said: “There have been over 70 arrests for obstruction of the Highway Act and Bail Act offences.

Extinction Rebellion, which cites the civil rights movement, suffragettes and Mahatma Gandhi as inspirations, said smaller events took place in other UK cities as well as overseas on Saturday.

Organisers say they are planning to escalate the campaigns from Wednesday, when small teams of activists will “swarm” around central London blocking roads and bridges, bringing widespread disruption to the capital.

“Given the scale of the ecological crisis we are facing this is the appropriate scale of expansion,” said Bradbrook. “Occupying the streets to bring about change as our ancestors have done before us. Only this kind of large-scale economic disruption can rapidly bring the government to the table to discuss our demands. We are prepared to risk it all for our futures.”

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