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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:09:39 PM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

If you want to contribute to the new Laptop for Gerontocrat >> https://www.gf.me/u/ym3z5b

The dog killed the old one and he needs a new one. Some members asked for a GoFundMe campaign so i set one up at the link above.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:30 AM »
... I think I will read posts in future and not write.

Sometimes Friv might be a trifle 'trigger happy' with all those guns he is touting but his postings make interesting and informative reading.

We cannot all be so knowledgeable as Friv and sometimes just feel the need to express our 'opinions', so keep posting  :)

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 04:38:38 PM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.


Just to be on the save side, I'm sure you see this the same way, I don't think the problem is to come up with false assumptions and stuff like that from time to time, the tyring part is the stubbornly insisting part despite all that point into another direction and is shared by those who have seen many seasons in the past. It would be a pity if the discussions became overstreamlined because that as well does not expand the horizons and thinking patterns.

Excellent points.  Open minds, open discussions, continuous learning, evidence-based reasoning

-- NOT ideological stances, I-thought-of-it-so-it-must-be-right, or unwillingness to concede that other evidence-based reasoning may have validity.

Learning arises from continually correcting one's own mistakes.

I really enjoy this forum BTW.  And the whole atmosphere and approach has improved greatly from when I first joined.  Thanks to all moderators and fellow participants.   :D

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 03:52:18 PM »

Please continue the Arctic flights discussion in a new thread. Point made, a good point indeed, but the details belong elsewhere.

Good moderating Oren, all the way around. Thank you

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »
So, as a non-expert, let me see if I have got this straight...

The current anticyclone over the pole looks set to compact the ice and warm the Arctic generally.
 
a. It will compact the ice pack by 'pulling' ice inwards (really the Coriolis Effect), probably producing much more open water in the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev, and maybe in the Beaufort too.  This is already happening.

b. The extra areas of exposed seawater will then soak up a whole lot of near-maximum 24/7 Arctic insolation, warming their surface waters.  The warm water will remain at the surface because of its low density.  (Upwelling may also occur in places, bringing warm, saline water to the surface in places.)  All this seems probable, especially with the forecast clear skies.

d. Compaction will probably make for dramatic extent losses, but not necessarily in and of itself be terrible for the ice in terms of ice volume, since overall melting will be reduced when all the ice is together.

The rest is more speculative.
Pagophilus, I'd rather this discussion take place in another thread. However a quick answer is needed to avoid misunderstandings by other readers.
The HP both compacts and warms the Arctic. Compaction is due to the anti-cyclone and Coriolis. Warming/enhanced melting is due to higher insolation (caused by less clouds) and warm air sinking (I hope I am getting this correctly).
Compaction per se does not bring more energy to the ice, as it just shifts ice area from one place to another. If anything, it may make the ice more protected as it is bunched together and in a higher latitude. Of course, a low that then disperses it could undo this process.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 07:04:51 PM »
If anyone is wondering where their responses to Phoenix's surface temps issues disappeared, it's all been banished to the basic melting physics thread.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 04, 2020, 03:00:48 PM »
Tom, the issue if what happened in past millennia is OT for this thread, and usually elicits responses, so should be avoided.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 04:02:47 AM »
This is what Zack had to say, and I know most people on here trust him.

I’m done now, but please don’t pick on the new people.  If you want to fight with the trolls and the old timers who have questionable theories I’m good with that.  But, let the new people have a chance to feel involved and to learn.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 08:24:05 AM »
VAK, while I appreciate your posts, you must remain on-topic in this thread. This discussion/speculation of ice shelves and lake snow effect belongs elsewhere. I will have to take more drastic measures if this continues.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 09:02:00 AM »
June 2-6.

2019.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:23:35 AM »
Phoenix, this has to be said:

It would do you well with a bit more humility and a bit less confidence. You have latched onto your theory like it's the gospel. I have taken the time to patiently explain some of its shortcomings in the DHACSOO thread, to no avail it seems.

Specifically I have explained the DMI N 80 data is heavily weighted around the pole itself, and is not a true measure of temperatures north of 80. And that the added energy from AGW gets soaked up by the ice and is not showing in temperature readings, this does not mean AGW is irrelevant. And that the data shows Inner Basin volume during the melting season does matter, and the CAB is not the only thing we should care about, due to melt progress, ice mobility and other factors.
I am fine with people expecting crashes and with people expecting recoveries. However I am not fine with your excessive preaching that can intimidate others from posting, others who may dislike confrontation, dislike harsh criticism and feel less sure of their insights and contributions. Be warned I am losing my patience. And the numerous moderator reports I have received say my instincts are justified.

BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:17:31 AM »
Oren, congrats on being the new moderator! I tried to get you to do it last year, and you and Neven shut me down.

Anyway, you are doing a terrific job moderating in a fair way. I got so frustrated over the melting thread last year that I just quit contributing.  I think others might have too.

However, I always lurk to see what Friv and others are saying.

Thank you for your terrific work in moderating these forums.  The melting season has just begun, and things will get crazy.  But, I can once again read the forums without getting pissed off over the nonsense.

Thanks again,
A Lurker.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 03:24:20 AM »
Rob Dekker had/has a model predicting the outcome of melt seasons using the continental snow anomaly. I always thought the model too simplistic, but there's certainly a correlation there. Whether the causation is obvious (albedo and other feedbacks) or not so much (warm weather affecting both land snow and sea ice) is another matter.
Just don't start a continental snow/WAA crusade, this can be discussed in more depth elsewhere/in your own thread if so desired.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 06:20:12 AM »
A better approach would be to limit the amount of posts hashing the same postulation. This is not the first time somebody came up with the idea that the rate of loss will be slower, and you are not a lone voice in thinking that, rather you are a lone voice in voicing it so much.
Wait for new data, or find old data and present it originally. In the meantime, don't try to respond to any and every post that differs from your opinion. If you must respond, do so in one such post per day. If you prefer to post endlessly on your favorite subject, feel free to open a new thread where it will not disrupt.
Using the quoted example, S. Pansa came up with an interesting fact relevant to the thread's subject - Slater's model's prediction is nosediving. The late Slater's model is well known hereabouts and did not need much explanation. Whether its prediction is good, bad, wrong or right doesn't matter. Your response, OTOH, did not provide any new information. Do I think the model is the holy grail? No, the opposite. Did I respond? No, I did not have anything new or interesting to contribute on the subject.
If you believe most people here come for the drama and are ice doomers, you believe wrongly. Most readers of this thread come here with an open mind, have no preconceived notion of what is going to happen, If they have one they change it monthly, and are humble enough to realize the Arctic is greater than them and is always full of surprises.
Maybe you have not read Friv for enough years to realize he is the first to throw a wet blanket on people's new record expectations, as soon as the evidence points in that direction. His personal wishes and love of drama notwithstanding, science is the judge.
From what I have seen so far, it seems you have built a preconceived notion of how the season will end, and constantly look for various reasons to support this conclusion. You are not being reprimanded because of your claims or opinions, but because of the way the discussion is being held. Take a breath, stick to the science, follow up on your claims and items of interest from time to time, bring new perspectives, and keep an open mind.
If you think current Beaufort volume or extent or whatever predicts Beaufort extent at season's end, why not analyze this quantitatively using past data?
If you think extent correlates with continental temperatures, why not quantify past temperature data of various weather stations, correlate with CAA and Beaufort ice, and compare to the current year so far?
I hope I have made this clear enough. You are a prolific poster with a good scientific approach, which is why I took the time to write such a lengthy post of explanation. But you must make some changes, as outlined herein.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:18:47 PM »

Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.

It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...

LOL. The ice apocalypse is a cottage industry. I'll take the over.  8)

PS - There's a dedicated thread for Slater and another dedicated 2020 prediction thread.
Phoenix, I will not tolerate more such posts with no content and inflaming language that stirs up this thread for no good reason..

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 01:13:18 AM »
Quote
Please note, i am not asking to explain every little detail in this topic. I ask to use non-contradicting terms. Like, instead of "melt ponds confuse sensors" - say, for example, "technology limitations disallow reliable total Arctic ice volume measurement after mid-April based on those sensors". Like, instead of "SMOS stopped" say "SMOS measurements stop being used for calculating total ice volume mid-spring due to growing measurement errors which currently we're unable to remove". Etc.

If we'd be failing to avoid "contradicting per common sense of a non-scientist" statements here - even when such contradictions are in error de-facto - then what exactly this topic is for?
Thank you for the better description of SMOS cutoff for Cryosat, and other SMOS limitations. This is what should have been posted in the first place if you find the original poster was not accurate enough. Clarify, explain, bring more info, make better wording. And do not hint the cutoff is to hide something or that somebody was lying because they used inaccurate terminology.

Back to what this topic is for - bringing information, data, analysis and commentary about the Arctic sea ice melting season that is just beginning in earnest.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 28, 2020, 04:50:24 AM »
The new moderator's long-winded stream-of-consciousness position about this thread is:
* Off-Topic comments, jokes and other "nonsense" are always welcome on the forum in appropriate threads, but not on the melting season thread, one of the highest-rating threads that is home to many lurker readers.
* Personally-charged comments and slights of honor should be avoided (even when justified...), as they necessarily create back and forth posts and increase clutter. And are of course impolite.
* Comments about comments, i.e. meta-discussion, should be minimized. Not necessarily avoided, but reduced and used with care. Use "report to moderator" or PM me about posts that you believe should be dealt with, but be aware that I am monitoring this thread continuously.
* General long term predictions about the season ("I think a BOE is impossible this year") are better off in a separate thread, and I am happy that such a one was recently opened. The exception is extrapolations of current data and situations ("I think the high CAB thickness precludes a meltout, based on average melting patterns").
* Deep discussions about scientific issues, which certainly could impact the melting season, should be held in separate threads. For example, contrails and their effects on sea ice, aerosols or lack thereof, La Nina, the Blob, soot from China or the fires soon to be in Siberia, etc., while a few comments on each such issue are welcome on this thread. Once it becomes heavy and arguments are flying around, or various papers posted, move it elsewhere. Here it will be lost and will disrupt the news flow.
* This thread is mainly about actual developments happening during the melting season, and comparisons with previous melting seasons.
* Comments about the data posted by JCG and Gero in the data thread should be posted in this thread, rather than in the data thread itself.
* Posters wishing to thank others for exceptional contributions (of which we happily have many) should consider using the Like button for most occasions.
* The moderator will use moderation in moderating, so as to avoid creating dissent and hurt feelings, and in consideration of his inexperience in such matters, but will act as necessary to ensure smooth and fruitful discussion.
* Often sporadic or borderline comments will not be dealt with to avoid disruption by the moderator, but similar comments might get the edit later when something becomes a repeated phenomenon.
* Should you undergo a moderation edit, please don't take this as a personal attack or as a hint that your contributions are unwelcome (unless specifically stated.....)
* If you are a lurker and are afraid or hesitant to post because of all these rules, be aware that new posters are treated more gently and are very welcome in their initial posting efforts. Bear in mind there is a "stupid" questions thread where you can ask most anything.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:05:46 PM »
Freegrass, best continue this dicussion in the NH snow cover thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.msg259533.html#new

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 04:12:04 PM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Neven has been overworked for years. I have always felt a deep debt of gratitude that he has spent so much of his life on this. There are a lot of people here who I respect a great deal. Oren is one of these people. Moderation can only improve with several persons like him/her here.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »
Well moderated Oren

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 09:01:12 AM »
Thank you oren for your moderation in moderating. Much appreciated.

"nanning" is my first given name. Is "oren" your first name? Just nice to know.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »
I've decided to let #269 stand, in all its dubious glory, as I'm more concerned with denialism of science than with silly insults. However TB is on my radar screen, should this continue.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 08:26:23 AM »
Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 07:15:05 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.  BTW, oren, good to see you as moderator.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 06:05:30 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:02:48 PM »
I was wondering when you guys were going to wake up at the tail end of this season :) it's very interesting. What's up with those geo heights? I'm very curious about the upcoming PIOmas. Also looks like some of the heavy activity in the North Atlantic with heavy winds blowing right into the Norwegian currents has died down a bit.

Really need a good freeze season along the CAA and N Greenland. Gyre will shove some CAB into it, but its dwindled last few years into barely any thickness at all.

The meriodional anomaly up the Bering that's been persistent could be an influential factor

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »
Where is the best place to find ICE VOLUME for last few years

See the PIOMAS thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg226663.html#msg226663

To summarise:





Plus of course Andy's animations:




28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:30:02 AM »
The more scientifically inclined amongst us might be interested in taking a look at this news received via Don Perovich:

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

At long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four at the MOSAiC expedition.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:10:11 AM »
+1 to Jim Hunt and all the other seasoned commentators here who share their expertise and make this space such an informative place for the vast bulk of us lurkers. Please keep it coming!

et al.

Thanks for your kind words.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:08:29 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year?

This one you mean?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,238.msg228062.html#msg228062

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:02:47 AM »
The scientific people can have their own place as well then

Like in the good old days you mean, when the "melting season" discussion sometimes turned to scientific journal articles?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg31507.html#msg31507

Quote
Summer sea-ice cover can recover quickly in models when the climate cools into the following winter, because thin ice grows more rapidly (Notz 2009), and with diminished icecover, excess heat is more rapidly transferred to the atmosphere and radiated to space (Tietsche et al. 2011) (both are negative feedbacks). However, if cloud cover increases after summer sea-ice loss, then this could act as an insulating blanket in autumn–winter restricting sea-ice recovery (positive feedback) and potentially creating multiple stable states (Abbot et al. 2011).

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:56:37 AM »
The 2019 melt season is on the verge of surpassing  2016.

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now down to 4.03 million km². The 2016 minimum was 4.02.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:38:01 AM »
Oddly satisfying ice drift forecast for 23.09. via Mercator.

The second pic the todays ice drift model.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:51:39 AM »
I'm not 100% sure about the 3rd parcel of tropical air reaching & holding the North Pole in September.  Maybe only two this month.  But,  I have been expecting a change in pattern since February and it hasn't come yet.  Maybe I should accept that the AO is just dropping and will continue to fall in strength over the next, what, 3-15 years?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 07:38:19 AM »
Very interesting to watch the HP centered over the pack compact the ice, undoing the dispersion that we saw from the LP in August... jaxa might get under 4 million after all.   Just more proof of how mobile, fragmented and unstable the pack is.

I’m worried what will happen if we get a long term +DA this winter.  The ice is more vulnerable than it has ever been, and a bad pattern could quickly export a ton of what little MYI is left.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 06:15:04 AM »
if high atmospheric heights in anticyclonic parcels located directly over the North Pole are a problem for freeze up, there are 2 more to come in September.

between the ocean heat and the polar cell failing we could see a later than usual minimum.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:54:08 AM »
Regarding the 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season, has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year? This is the persistent chunk that appears to be attached below the sea surface. It has had an amazing history of surviving. It will be interesting to see if this arctic sea ice survives in 2019.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:36:54 AM »
It has been extremely interesting to observe the late season reduction in Arctic Sea Ice extent that has been occurring over the past few days. While it appears that this event is being driven by a high pressure weather system over the central arctic that is concentrating the ice, as a long term follower of the forum it was surprising that there has been so little discussion of this very interesting event that has been occurring. It has been particularly surprising that essentially no one is posting on the geophysical mechanisms involved. If this event is being driven by the high pressure system presently in place over the arctic, it would appear that there could be a late season minimum this year; perhaps going below 4 million.
 

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:38:57 AM »
Be careful with answering Jim Hunt, you seem a candid poster and he's the worst troll if he wants to.
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain. If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Jim Hunt is one of the top contributors here. I learn a great deal from his posts, far more than I learn from your daily postings of weather gifs. And this site is about sharing real insight into AGW, not getting likes.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 12:24:01 AM »
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain.

Apart from this one?

Quote
Absolutely!

Quote
If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Did it ever occur to you that the majority of those 4000+ messages were written before the "like" feature was added to the forum software?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:58:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ? if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers. So, to quote Dorothy Parker:-

Resumé

Razors pain you;
Rivers are damp;
Acids stain you;
And drugs cause cramp.
Guns aren’t lawful;
Nooses give;
Gas smells awful;
You might as well live.

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