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Messages - Zeug Gezeugt

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:02:48 PM »
I was wondering when you guys were going to wake up at the tail end of this season :) it's very interesting. What's up with those geo heights? I'm very curious about the upcoming PIOmas. Also looks like some of the heavy activity in the North Atlantic with heavy winds blowing right into the Norwegian currents has died down a bit.

Really need a good freeze season along the CAA and N Greenland. Gyre will shove some CAB into it, but its dwindled last few years into barely any thickness at all.

The meriodional anomaly up the Bering that's been persistent could be an influential factor

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »
Where is the best place to find ICE VOLUME for last few years

See the PIOMAS thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg226663.html#msg226663

To summarise:





Plus of course Andy's animations:




3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:30:02 AM »
The more scientifically inclined amongst us might be interested in taking a look at this news received via Don Perovich:

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

At long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four at the MOSAiC expedition.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:10:11 AM »
+1 to Jim Hunt and all the other seasoned commentators here who share their expertise and make this space such an informative place for the vast bulk of us lurkers. Please keep it coming!

et al.

Thanks for your kind words.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:08:29 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year?

This one you mean?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,238.msg228062.html#msg228062

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:02:47 AM »
The scientific people can have their own place as well then

Like in the good old days you mean, when the "melting season" discussion sometimes turned to scientific journal articles?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg31507.html#msg31507

Quote
Summer sea-ice cover can recover quickly in models when the climate cools into the following winter, because thin ice grows more rapidly (Notz 2009), and with diminished icecover, excess heat is more rapidly transferred to the atmosphere and radiated to space (Tietsche et al. 2011) (both are negative feedbacks). However, if cloud cover increases after summer sea-ice loss, then this could act as an insulating blanket in autumn–winter restricting sea-ice recovery (positive feedback) and potentially creating multiple stable states (Abbot et al. 2011).

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:56:37 AM »
The 2019 melt season is on the verge of surpassing  2016.

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now down to 4.03 million km². The 2016 minimum was 4.02.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:38:01 AM »
Oddly satisfying ice drift forecast for 23.09. via Mercator.

The second pic the todays ice drift model.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:51:39 AM »
I'm not 100% sure about the 3rd parcel of tropical air reaching & holding the North Pole in September.  Maybe only two this month.  But,  I have been expecting a change in pattern since February and it hasn't come yet.  Maybe I should accept that the AO is just dropping and will continue to fall in strength over the next, what, 3-15 years?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 07:38:19 AM »
Very interesting to watch the HP centered over the pack compact the ice, undoing the dispersion that we saw from the LP in August... jaxa might get under 4 million after all.   Just more proof of how mobile, fragmented and unstable the pack is.

I’m worried what will happen if we get a long term +DA this winter.  The ice is more vulnerable than it has ever been, and a bad pattern could quickly export a ton of what little MYI is left.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 06:15:04 AM »
if high atmospheric heights in anticyclonic parcels located directly over the North Pole are a problem for freeze up, there are 2 more to come in September.

between the ocean heat and the polar cell failing we could see a later than usual minimum.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:54:08 AM »
Regarding the 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season, has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year? This is the persistent chunk that appears to be attached below the sea surface. It has had an amazing history of surviving. It will be interesting to see if this arctic sea ice survives in 2019.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:36:54 AM »
It has been extremely interesting to observe the late season reduction in Arctic Sea Ice extent that has been occurring over the past few days. While it appears that this event is being driven by a high pressure weather system over the central arctic that is concentrating the ice, as a long term follower of the forum it was surprising that there has been so little discussion of this very interesting event that has been occurring. It has been particularly surprising that essentially no one is posting on the geophysical mechanisms involved. If this event is being driven by the high pressure system presently in place over the arctic, it would appear that there could be a late season minimum this year; perhaps going below 4 million.
 

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 02:38:57 AM »
Be careful with answering Jim Hunt, you seem a candid poster and he's the worst troll if he wants to.
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain. If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Jim Hunt is one of the top contributors here. I learn a great deal from his posts, far more than I learn from your daily postings of weather gifs. And this site is about sharing real insight into AGW, not getting likes.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 12:24:01 AM »
He sure is. He's never ever once replied to one of my messages, other than to complain.

Apart from this one?

Quote
Absolutely!

Quote
If you write over 4000 messages, and people like less than 200 of them, maybe it's a sign...

Did it ever occur to you that the majority of those 4000+ messages were written before the "like" feature was added to the forum software?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:58:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ? if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers. So, to quote Dorothy Parker:-

Resumé

Razors pain you;
Rivers are damp;
Acids stain you;
And drugs cause cramp.
Guns aren’t lawful;
Nooses give;
Gas smells awful;
You might as well live.

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