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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 08, 2020, 05:07:28 PM »
I bet the relentless reduction of ice in Laptev can be explained by atmospheric climate change without having to resort to the obscure hypotheses of Atlantic Water effects. Global warming effects on oceans is slow and often counterintuitive. Reserves for heat are enormous given the dimensions and the heat capacity. Characteristic times of change are of the order of hundred years.

The atmosphere and oceans form an integrated system, so I think arguing a solely atmosphere-based effect hypothesis for any changes in the Arctic (beyond short-term effects on the order of a week or a month) is perilous. Most of the extra heat that is trapped by our planet due to climate change is going into the oceans, and you are correct of course: that quantity of heat is enormous.

The effects of the this heating of the oceans may only show up gradually, but does it then follow that these effects are somehow not now showing up in the Laptev now, following at least a century of oceanic warming?  A warming effect can be gradual (as you state it is in the oceans) and it can then manifest itself rather dramatically through the medium of ice extent, since this phase transition is so dramatic to us. 

I am not expert enough to argue whether or not Atlantification of the Laptev is taking place. I am not denying that the extreme Siberian heat this summer did not have a profound effect on the adjacent seas, and particularly the Laptev -- that seems evident to me.  But I agree with aslan that taking a more holistic approach, and looking at trends over several years, including both atmospheric and ocean effects, is the more logical way to approach this.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2020, 11:04:12 PM »
Aslan, while I support your science position here, plrase avoid troll name calling. I will monitor what feels like a pet theory situation, but please leave it to me. Otherwise flames will go higher when they should go lower.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:23:40 AM »
October 27 - November 2.

2019.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 11:58:47 PM »
The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.
Agree to all the above.

Quote
It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)
Indeed I echo the sentiment, a computer enables much more effective contributions.

The rest I will take as constructive criticism. Yes, each community member can and should strive to do more. Yes, the stuff is doable. No, I don't think there is apathy. And I still encourage all to post, within guidelines. This is especially true for new users who are not sure if their contributions are worth as much as the very quality stuff posted here. My answer is yes, more participation is desirable, and initial posts are always the hardest. At worst, posters could get some flak, but don't give up. If posts don't fit I can always move them elsewhere. The other threads mentioned above are certainly useful and appropriate for various types of posts, and feel free to practice there.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 07:05:49 PM »
Here is a possible new daily product -- hourly observational sea surface temperatures from a few Laptev buoys. One looks stuck in ice. A daily graph might be excessive effort but a simple table for the week might be within reach. It is right there as quick text at IABP but sometimes needs a few edits as the data is just the buoy calling Iridium, no one looking at it.

204760  79.08770    74.03980  0.72  305.6  31 Oct

 204761  74.49920  120.31750  -1.52  305.6  31 Oct

 204762  76.09440  125.53490  -0.08  305.6  31 Oct

 204763  76.70450  111.47850  -7.36  305.6  31 Oct

 204764  79.35490  128.56040  -0.24  305.6  31 Oct


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 03:03:04 PM »
Quote
the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have
Right. Where and why did "peak gains" occur, how might that location data be interpreted, what will the gains be tomorrow? Does not daily extent trivia belong on the extent forum?

I see zero interest in endlessly boring copy/pasting off the NSIDC site followed by droning on and on in October about maybe-records next March and Sept 2021. One-day records don't adequately characterize the situation in the Arctic to begin with, plus we don't have the slightest basis yet to predict what will happen.

Maybe we need a separate forum for the actual freezing season. Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

There is a tremendous amount to do given three very informative NEW sources of data on top of the usuals. Analysis is just a click or two away but only a few will take those clicks. Many hands make light work: it doesn't get any easier than plotting sea surface temperatures from buoys, it's high school complexity.

Tracking the unprecedented nature of the current freezing season is essential to understanding why it happened, what consequences are likely to follow, and whether it is one-off weather or beginnings of an annual trend. The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification, not a word about it here.

The first, attribution, has seen hand-waving -- but no apportionment -- about early melt, high insolation of resulting open water and winds mixing ice, combined with a Siberian heat wave and overall temperature anomaly. Some aspects of this are newly doable. The second, eg mapping rate of regional growth of ice thickness, is newly feasible from observables. The last needs a global model perspective so best we can do there is find the better journal treatments.
A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader. However, I must make some moderator comments here:
* Posting "boring" data gathered from various sites may not be glamorous or interesting to some, but it is an important contribution to the forum nonetheless, appreciated by many readers.
* Various extrapolations and discussions of extent data belong in this thread, while the data itself belongs in the data thread. Admittedly current extrapolations to 2021 min (or max) are IMHO meaningless, but they are still allowed and some readers appreciate them.
* Not all users are as analytically or scientifically capable, or have available time, or priorities, or confidence, to contribute as much as others. I know I am quite capable with Excel and some charts but lack both time, ability and inclination to deal with Panoply, netcdf and various other related matters. Tried and failed. So I consume what others produce, I appreciate, I thank, I even press "Like" which might be meaningless to most. But that's all I can do at this present time.
* I think the uptake of these data new sources is slowly growing, and the educational efforts are paying off. More users are joining the heavy analysis bandwagon. However, results take time and patience.
* I encourage users to post their best opinion even if not backed up by hard science or rigorous data (as long as posts are limited in number and length, so as not to drown the thread(s) in noise). Wide participation is an important value and promotes a higher readership in the long term.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 09:42:03 PM »
As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

Agreed.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 07:50:55 PM »
As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:59:50 PM »
Thanks for the fine words folks, but let's focus on the ice.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:07:20 PM »
A tad off subject, but I would like to give credit to Oren, for his handling of the Moderator position during this melt season. I am sure at times he may have felt that Neven handed him a stick of dynamite. At times the comments this season have been fair contentious, but I think Oren has reigned with the required fairness and discipline.

Thank you Oren.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 12:51:28 PM »
Updated version (improved colour scheme) of the comparison between the extent and concentration changes for the first 3 weeks of August.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 10:29:12 PM »
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
I think you need to keep in mind that for each of us participating - or even just reading - these forums, there are additional side conversations taking place that reach thousands of other people.

"Getting the numbers right" as you say adds credence to the argument many of us are making to influence other people to action.

It is empowering many of us to say to people who while not necessarily doubting, but may rather be dragging their feet, "It is past time to talk; it is in fact past time to act.  You must take action."

Individually the effect is small.  Collectively, we are creating (hopefully) a critical mass of people determined to cause change.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:24:39 PM »
Unless some huge technology advancements come along we will burn every reachable energy carbon we can.


If u wish to hope for something.

Hope and pray the release of truly monumental levels of methane from clathrates, permafrost, and permakarst isn't really likely.

Has there been any reports of major methane release in the Kara or Laptev.

The Laptev has 6-9C SSTs over the area that is 8-20M depth...

The Kara has 8-13C SSTs over the same depth.


In 2011 that Russian methane guru and his wife toured the Laptev in early September.

They remarked at how wild it was that the surface was 3-4C but the sea bed at the 15M depths was also 2-3C water.

And that region had the largest methane bubbles they had ever seen in the Laptev up to that point
..
This year truly nutty SSTS  have been in the laptev, Kara, barents, and Hudson Bay.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:08:11 AM »
The ice is already DOA.

So why cry over spilt milk???

There is nothing to solve.  Just observe the horror.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:09:39 PM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

If you want to contribute to the new Laptop for Gerontocrat >> https://www.gf.me/u/ym3z5b

The dog killed the old one and he needs a new one. Some members asked for a GoFundMe campaign so i set one up at the link above.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:30 AM »
... I think I will read posts in future and not write.

Sometimes Friv might be a trifle 'trigger happy' with all those guns he is touting but his postings make interesting and informative reading.

We cannot all be so knowledgeable as Friv and sometimes just feel the need to express our 'opinions', so keep posting  :)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 04:38:38 PM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.


Just to be on the save side, I'm sure you see this the same way, I don't think the problem is to come up with false assumptions and stuff like that from time to time, the tyring part is the stubbornly insisting part despite all that point into another direction and is shared by those who have seen many seasons in the past. It would be a pity if the discussions became overstreamlined because that as well does not expand the horizons and thinking patterns.

Excellent points.  Open minds, open discussions, continuous learning, evidence-based reasoning

-- NOT ideological stances, I-thought-of-it-so-it-must-be-right, or unwillingness to concede that other evidence-based reasoning may have validity.

Learning arises from continually correcting one's own mistakes.

I really enjoy this forum BTW.  And the whole atmosphere and approach has improved greatly from when I first joined.  Thanks to all moderators and fellow participants.   :D

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 03:52:18 PM »

Please continue the Arctic flights discussion in a new thread. Point made, a good point indeed, but the details belong elsewhere.

Good moderating Oren, all the way around. Thank you

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »
So, as a non-expert, let me see if I have got this straight...

The current anticyclone over the pole looks set to compact the ice and warm the Arctic generally.
 
a. It will compact the ice pack by 'pulling' ice inwards (really the Coriolis Effect), probably producing much more open water in the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev, and maybe in the Beaufort too.  This is already happening.

b. The extra areas of exposed seawater will then soak up a whole lot of near-maximum 24/7 Arctic insolation, warming their surface waters.  The warm water will remain at the surface because of its low density.  (Upwelling may also occur in places, bringing warm, saline water to the surface in places.)  All this seems probable, especially with the forecast clear skies.

d. Compaction will probably make for dramatic extent losses, but not necessarily in and of itself be terrible for the ice in terms of ice volume, since overall melting will be reduced when all the ice is together.

The rest is more speculative.
Pagophilus, I'd rather this discussion take place in another thread. However a quick answer is needed to avoid misunderstandings by other readers.
The HP both compacts and warms the Arctic. Compaction is due to the anti-cyclone and Coriolis. Warming/enhanced melting is due to higher insolation (caused by less clouds) and warm air sinking (I hope I am getting this correctly).
Compaction per se does not bring more energy to the ice, as it just shifts ice area from one place to another. If anything, it may make the ice more protected as it is bunched together and in a higher latitude. Of course, a low that then disperses it could undo this process.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 07:04:51 PM »
If anyone is wondering where their responses to Phoenix's surface temps issues disappeared, it's all been banished to the basic melting physics thread.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 04, 2020, 03:00:48 PM »
Tom, the issue if what happened in past millennia is OT for this thread, and usually elicits responses, so should be avoided.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 04:02:47 AM »
This is what Zack had to say, and I know most people on here trust him.

I’m done now, but please don’t pick on the new people.  If you want to fight with the trolls and the old timers who have questionable theories I’m good with that.  But, let the new people have a chance to feel involved and to learn.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 08:24:05 AM »
VAK, while I appreciate your posts, you must remain on-topic in this thread. This discussion/speculation of ice shelves and lake snow effect belongs elsewhere. I will have to take more drastic measures if this continues.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 09:02:00 AM »
June 2-6.

2019.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:23:35 AM »
Phoenix, this has to be said:

It would do you well with a bit more humility and a bit less confidence. You have latched onto your theory like it's the gospel. I have taken the time to patiently explain some of its shortcomings in the DHACSOO thread, to no avail it seems.

Specifically I have explained the DMI N 80 data is heavily weighted around the pole itself, and is not a true measure of temperatures north of 80. And that the added energy from AGW gets soaked up by the ice and is not showing in temperature readings, this does not mean AGW is irrelevant. And that the data shows Inner Basin volume during the melting season does matter, and the CAB is not the only thing we should care about, due to melt progress, ice mobility and other factors.
I am fine with people expecting crashes and with people expecting recoveries. However I am not fine with your excessive preaching that can intimidate others from posting, others who may dislike confrontation, dislike harsh criticism and feel less sure of their insights and contributions. Be warned I am losing my patience. And the numerous moderator reports I have received say my instincts are justified.

BTW, 2020 could be a recovery year, this wiill not mean your theory was sound.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:17:31 AM »
Oren, congrats on being the new moderator! I tried to get you to do it last year, and you and Neven shut me down.

Anyway, you are doing a terrific job moderating in a fair way. I got so frustrated over the melting thread last year that I just quit contributing.  I think others might have too.

However, I always lurk to see what Friv and others are saying.

Thank you for your terrific work in moderating these forums.  The melting season has just begun, and things will get crazy.  But, I can once again read the forums without getting pissed off over the nonsense.

Thanks again,
A Lurker.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 03:24:20 AM »
Rob Dekker had/has a model predicting the outcome of melt seasons using the continental snow anomaly. I always thought the model too simplistic, but there's certainly a correlation there. Whether the causation is obvious (albedo and other feedbacks) or not so much (warm weather affecting both land snow and sea ice) is another matter.
Just don't start a continental snow/WAA crusade, this can be discussed in more depth elsewhere/in your own thread if so desired.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 06:20:12 AM »
A better approach would be to limit the amount of posts hashing the same postulation. This is not the first time somebody came up with the idea that the rate of loss will be slower, and you are not a lone voice in thinking that, rather you are a lone voice in voicing it so much.
Wait for new data, or find old data and present it originally. In the meantime, don't try to respond to any and every post that differs from your opinion. If you must respond, do so in one such post per day. If you prefer to post endlessly on your favorite subject, feel free to open a new thread where it will not disrupt.
Using the quoted example, S. Pansa came up with an interesting fact relevant to the thread's subject - Slater's model's prediction is nosediving. The late Slater's model is well known hereabouts and did not need much explanation. Whether its prediction is good, bad, wrong or right doesn't matter. Your response, OTOH, did not provide any new information. Do I think the model is the holy grail? No, the opposite. Did I respond? No, I did not have anything new or interesting to contribute on the subject.
If you believe most people here come for the drama and are ice doomers, you believe wrongly. Most readers of this thread come here with an open mind, have no preconceived notion of what is going to happen, If they have one they change it monthly, and are humble enough to realize the Arctic is greater than them and is always full of surprises.
Maybe you have not read Friv for enough years to realize he is the first to throw a wet blanket on people's new record expectations, as soon as the evidence points in that direction. His personal wishes and love of drama notwithstanding, science is the judge.
From what I have seen so far, it seems you have built a preconceived notion of how the season will end, and constantly look for various reasons to support this conclusion. You are not being reprimanded because of your claims or opinions, but because of the way the discussion is being held. Take a breath, stick to the science, follow up on your claims and items of interest from time to time, bring new perspectives, and keep an open mind.
If you think current Beaufort volume or extent or whatever predicts Beaufort extent at season's end, why not analyze this quantitatively using past data?
If you think extent correlates with continental temperatures, why not quantify past temperature data of various weather stations, correlate with CAA and Beaufort ice, and compare to the current year so far?
I hope I have made this clear enough. You are a prolific poster with a good scientific approach, which is why I took the time to write such a lengthy post of explanation. But you must make some changes, as outlined herein.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:18:47 PM »

Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.

It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...

LOL. The ice apocalypse is a cottage industry. I'll take the over.  8)

PS - There's a dedicated thread for Slater and another dedicated 2020 prediction thread.
Phoenix, I will not tolerate more such posts with no content and inflaming language that stirs up this thread for no good reason..

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 01:13:18 AM »
Quote
Please note, i am not asking to explain every little detail in this topic. I ask to use non-contradicting terms. Like, instead of "melt ponds confuse sensors" - say, for example, "technology limitations disallow reliable total Arctic ice volume measurement after mid-April based on those sensors". Like, instead of "SMOS stopped" say "SMOS measurements stop being used for calculating total ice volume mid-spring due to growing measurement errors which currently we're unable to remove". Etc.

If we'd be failing to avoid "contradicting per common sense of a non-scientist" statements here - even when such contradictions are in error de-facto - then what exactly this topic is for?
Thank you for the better description of SMOS cutoff for Cryosat, and other SMOS limitations. This is what should have been posted in the first place if you find the original poster was not accurate enough. Clarify, explain, bring more info, make better wording. And do not hint the cutoff is to hide something or that somebody was lying because they used inaccurate terminology.

Back to what this topic is for - bringing information, data, analysis and commentary about the Arctic sea ice melting season that is just beginning in earnest.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 28, 2020, 04:50:24 AM »
The new moderator's long-winded stream-of-consciousness position about this thread is:
* Off-Topic comments, jokes and other "nonsense" are always welcome on the forum in appropriate threads, but not on the melting season thread, one of the highest-rating threads that is home to many lurker readers.
* Personally-charged comments and slights of honor should be avoided (even when justified...), as they necessarily create back and forth posts and increase clutter. And are of course impolite.
* Comments about comments, i.e. meta-discussion, should be minimized. Not necessarily avoided, but reduced and used with care. Use "report to moderator" or PM me about posts that you believe should be dealt with, but be aware that I am monitoring this thread continuously.
* General long term predictions about the season ("I think a BOE is impossible this year") are better off in a separate thread, and I am happy that such a one was recently opened. The exception is extrapolations of current data and situations ("I think the high CAB thickness precludes a meltout, based on average melting patterns").
* Deep discussions about scientific issues, which certainly could impact the melting season, should be held in separate threads. For example, contrails and their effects on sea ice, aerosols or lack thereof, La Nina, the Blob, soot from China or the fires soon to be in Siberia, etc., while a few comments on each such issue are welcome on this thread. Once it becomes heavy and arguments are flying around, or various papers posted, move it elsewhere. Here it will be lost and will disrupt the news flow.
* This thread is mainly about actual developments happening during the melting season, and comparisons with previous melting seasons.
* Comments about the data posted by JCG and Gero in the data thread should be posted in this thread, rather than in the data thread itself.
* Posters wishing to thank others for exceptional contributions (of which we happily have many) should consider using the Like button for most occasions.
* The moderator will use moderation in moderating, so as to avoid creating dissent and hurt feelings, and in consideration of his inexperience in such matters, but will act as necessary to ensure smooth and fruitful discussion.
* Often sporadic or borderline comments will not be dealt with to avoid disruption by the moderator, but similar comments might get the edit later when something becomes a repeated phenomenon.
* Should you undergo a moderation edit, please don't take this as a personal attack or as a hint that your contributions are unwelcome (unless specifically stated.....)
* If you are a lurker and are afraid or hesitant to post because of all these rules, be aware that new posters are treated more gently and are very welcome in their initial posting efforts. Bear in mind there is a "stupid" questions thread where you can ask most anything.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:05:46 PM »
Freegrass, best continue this dicussion in the NH snow cover thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.msg259533.html#new

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 04:12:04 PM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Neven has been overworked for years. I have always felt a deep debt of gratitude that he has spent so much of his life on this. There are a lot of people here who I respect a great deal. Oren is one of these people. Moderation can only improve with several persons like him/her here.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »
Well moderated Oren

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 09:01:12 AM »
Thank you oren for your moderation in moderating. Much appreciated.

"nanning" is my first given name. Is "oren" your first name? Just nice to know.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 08:50:55 AM »
I've decided to let #269 stand, in all its dubious glory, as I'm more concerned with denialism of science than with silly insults. However TB is on my radar screen, should this continue.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 08:26:23 AM »
Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.

I thought that as well!

The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.

Thanks Oren.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 07:15:05 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!

Oren may have a little more moderating to do.  See comment #269 upthread.  BTW, oren, good to see you as moderator.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 12, 2020, 06:05:30 AM »
Good moderating there Oren!

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:02:48 PM »
I was wondering when you guys were going to wake up at the tail end of this season :) it's very interesting. What's up with those geo heights? I'm very curious about the upcoming PIOmas. Also looks like some of the heavy activity in the North Atlantic with heavy winds blowing right into the Norwegian currents has died down a bit.

Really need a good freeze season along the CAA and N Greenland. Gyre will shove some CAB into it, but its dwindled last few years into barely any thickness at all.

The meriodional anomaly up the Bering that's been persistent could be an influential factor

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »
Where is the best place to find ICE VOLUME for last few years

See the PIOMAS thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg226663.html#msg226663

To summarise:





Plus of course Andy's animations:




42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:30:02 AM »
The more scientifically inclined amongst us might be interested in taking a look at this news received via Don Perovich:

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

At long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four at the MOSAiC expedition.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:10:11 AM »
+1 to Jim Hunt and all the other seasoned commentators here who share their expertise and make this space such an informative place for the vast bulk of us lurkers. Please keep it coming!

et al.

Thanks for your kind words.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:08:29 AM »
Has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year?

This one you mean?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,238.msg228062.html#msg228062

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:02:47 AM »
The scientific people can have their own place as well then

Like in the good old days you mean, when the "melting season" discussion sometimes turned to scientific journal articles?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg31507.html#msg31507

Quote
Summer sea-ice cover can recover quickly in models when the climate cools into the following winter, because thin ice grows more rapidly (Notz 2009), and with diminished icecover, excess heat is more rapidly transferred to the atmosphere and radiated to space (Tietsche et al. 2011) (both are negative feedbacks). However, if cloud cover increases after summer sea-ice loss, then this could act as an insulating blanket in autumn–winter restricting sea-ice recovery (positive feedback) and potentially creating multiple stable states (Abbot et al. 2011).

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:56:37 AM »
The 2019 melt season is on the verge of surpassing  2016.

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now down to 4.03 million km². The 2016 minimum was 4.02.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:38:01 AM »
Oddly satisfying ice drift forecast for 23.09. via Mercator.

The second pic the todays ice drift model.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:51:39 AM »
I'm not 100% sure about the 3rd parcel of tropical air reaching & holding the North Pole in September.  Maybe only two this month.  But,  I have been expecting a change in pattern since February and it hasn't come yet.  Maybe I should accept that the AO is just dropping and will continue to fall in strength over the next, what, 3-15 years?

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 07:38:19 AM »
Very interesting to watch the HP centered over the pack compact the ice, undoing the dispersion that we saw from the LP in August... jaxa might get under 4 million after all.   Just more proof of how mobile, fragmented and unstable the pack is.

I’m worried what will happen if we get a long term +DA this winter.  The ice is more vulnerable than it has ever been, and a bad pattern could quickly export a ton of what little MYI is left.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 06:15:04 AM »
if high atmospheric heights in anticyclonic parcels located directly over the North Pole are a problem for freeze up, there are 2 more to come in September.

between the ocean heat and the polar cell failing we could see a later than usual minimum.

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