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1
Quote
.. a trace of frost this morning ..
Oh, how exciting.  Lets all gather close and breathe on it to see if it grows!  ::)
It works for fire ...   :P

Tallahassee might get some frost next week.  Some nearby areas had a touch of frost a 6-8 weeks ago, but I haven't yet brought my orchids in, but will this weekend.  [70F=21C; 60F=15.5C; 50F=10C; 40F=4C; 30F=-1C]
Meteoblue

2
Antarctica / Melt lake on Nivlisen Ice Shelf
« on: January 10, 2020, 06:34:29 PM »
Noticed this cool lake on Worldview, and thought I'd make a thread even if it may not be of any particular significance.

There is a surface meltwater lake growing on the Nivlisen Ice Shelf in Queen Maud Land. By now the main lake is almost 5km wide. It formed on around the 26th of December from rivers of meltwater originating dozens of kilometers further up the shelf.

I had a quick browse through worldview and I couldn't find any other year where the lake was this big. Most years a proper lake doesn't even form at all on this shelf. Also I think this might be the biggest meltwater body on the Antarctic right now.

Here is the coordinates on worldview: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=224464.63410371373,1972163.5070182374,715984.6341037138,2225091.5070182374&p=antarctic&t=2020-01-10-T17%3A02%3A46Z

And here is a Sentinel picture from four days ago. The deep blue color is gorgeous, I think:


3
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 09, 2020, 11:55:42 AM »
In addition to all the above: northern locations in Canada and Russia will become warmer and thus maybe more livable in theory, but when permafrost ground turns into a soggy bog and all housing and infrastructure built on it is damaged, I doubt the local inhabitants will thank AGW.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 07, 2020, 11:05:51 PM »
Posting this in the hope that the thread gets more hits
and

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:30:06 PM »
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

https://go.nasa.gov/39PbQGg

6
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: January 06, 2020, 06:12:47 PM »
"If you still want to close your eyes to the consequences of the climate crisis: With a little imagination, the forest fires in australia look like three waving friends. #Cute"

7
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 06, 2020, 07:50:46 AM »
1000 Words

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 23, 2019, 03:34:24 PM »
It is going to get really really cold in Alaska. GFS has it at  20-30c below average on Climate Reanalyzer. :o

 This is the first time in years in winter, I see most CAB in "solid blue" in mid range forecast, for an extended period of time. I don't know though will it hold or not, but it is certainly nice to see, at least.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2019, 11:11:00 AM »
Hmmm

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »
Animation with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges onto the Barentz shelf, that water having come from due south[+/-] is moving faster than the earths tangential surface speed so once on the shelf very little returns the same way, instead it flows into the basins and points east. That in turn forces deeper water to flow out through Fram, to a similar magnitude. The tidal inflow is periodic and variable but the outflow tends to be self similar and I suspect acts like a flywheel in that it will continue to pass water south despite tidal forcings. In this way Atlantification accelerates.

11
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 19, 2019, 02:25:04 PM »
Goes with a beard and is beneath the nose.  ;)

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
ArcticMelt2 this is a great resource for looking at relationships

https://ecm.um.maine.edu/reanalysis/monthly_correl/index.php

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: December 17, 2019, 07:27:44 PM »
^ I remember posting it back in May

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1833.msg200946.html#msg200946

... Ting and Kossin, along with Lamont researchers Suzana Camargo and Cuihua Li, used model simulations to examine the effects of climate change on hurricanes in the United States. The group found that these hurricanes will be affected in two different ways. As earlier studies have shown, rising sea surface temperatures will lead to an increase in hurricane intensity. But this study was the first to find that rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will weaken the vertical wind shear along the East Coast which will, in turn, enable further intensification of hurricanes that make landfall in this region.

"Once the natural protection is eroded by greenhouse gas warming, we may experience unprecedented hurricane intensification along the East Coast that can lead to stronger landfalling storms and higher storm surges in the future," Ting explains. "This is on top of the stronger tropical cyclone strength expected from the warmer sea surface temperature that we are already aware of. Home owners and policy makers have to take this into account when planning for coastal development and protections."

Although climate change is typically a slow process, the models point to the possibility of these anthropogenic effects emerging quickly. One of the models with a larger number of simulations indicated that these effects could start to be seen around the year 2040. A timeline like that only gives us about 20 years to try to change course by taking actions to reduce climate change and, at the very least, prepare for more extreme weather events.

Open Access: Mingfang Ting et al. Past and Future Hurricane Intensity Change along the U.S. East Coast, Nature Scientific Reports (2019)

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Biomass issues
« on: December 17, 2019, 06:09:52 PM »
Whether we are talking compost, mulch, bio char or just letting things rot naturally we can expect different emissions of CO2 ,methane and Nitrous oxides, depending on the temperature and moisture of the remineralization process.
 Feedstock is IMO hugely important . Trees take a long time to grow but algae or crops like Azolla can result in higher biomass production very quickly.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-fern-that-cooled-the-planet-do-it-again/
 Sinking carbon
  I am a farmer so I have a use for compost or mulch and although it helps my crops and provides benefits to fungi and soil biota most of the carbon returns to the atmosphere pretty quickly. Forests are deeply rooted and carbon sequestered deep in the soil stays there a little longer. BioChar longer still   but how do we farm a fast growing crop like Azolla and then sink the largest amount of carbon for the longest amount of time with the least amount( ideally none )  of fossil fuel energy consumed in the lifecycle process.
 So if I were to design a farm around sinking carbon. Grow Azolla , use it to do three things.
1. Compost to keep soil heathy
2. Feed livestock for food and beast of burden.
3. With thousands of other cooperating farmers send millions of tons of Azolla into ocean anaerobic basins. Somehow remove the phosphorus for reuse before you sink it along with the carbon.
 If a farmers job was sinking carbon farms and farm plans would look very different. Crops would look different . If society designed efficient ways to sink carbon they would figure out how to pay for carbon sinks . We currently pay to pump them, burn them ,mine them , and till them .
 
Carbon credits should go to farms/ aquaculture that can produce carbon that can be weighed and efficiently sunk. Although this isn’t being done it isn’t a total fantasy either. There are all the required parts of the proposal within fifty miles of my farm. Boats and a harbor, an anaerobic basin, farmland and freshwater resources, infrastructure to connect the farms with the ships/ barges .

Nanning , If communes were designed around carbon efficiency or ideally around the moral tenets of yeoman carbon farmers I’d be all in. For now I will feed the pigs on the thirty tons of winter squash I gleaned, a few hundred pounds of acorns  and the ration of barley I have to buy. That is I could feed quite a few humans with my current forage activities but it might be rather a bland diet. The tax man would still want his tally.

 

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 16, 2019, 08:25:26 PM »
from B_'s link (above - Change of Shifts at the North Pole):
Quote
Leg 1 of the MOSAiC expedition in numbers:

To date, the Polarstern has drifted 200 kilometres toward the North Pole. Thanks to its zigzagging course, the total distance travelled is 720 kilometres.

The highest drift speed – 1.4 km/h – was reached on 16 November 2019. On this single day, the ship drifted more than 20 kilometres.

Some of the research stations on the ice were moved up to 600 metres by processes in the ice.

There have been 8 days with gale-force wind speeds exceeding 15 metres/second (54 km/h). During the most powerful storm, on 16 November 2019, wind speeds of up to 100 km/hr were clocked.

There have been polar bear sightings on 9 days, including sightings of lone bears, and of mother bears with one or two cubs each.

As a result of these sightings, or approaching storms, the ice floe has been evacuated at short notice roughly half a dozen times. And there were other days on which the presence of bears or storm conditions made it impossible to go out on the ice at all. / made the ice off limits.

To date, MOSAiC participants have spent roughly 500 hours working on the ice.

Temperatures bottomed out at minus 32 degrees Celsius; the ocean temperature is currently minus 1.5 degrees Celsius at the surface.

More than 5 kilometres of roads were created on the ice’s surface.

The research camp on the ice floe consists of ca. 100 tonnes of equipment.

Ca. 20 terabytes of data have been gathered.

The researchers and crew have consumed 12.7 tonnes of food.

125 buoys, which serve as autonomous monitoring systems and can transmit their data directly by satellite, have been deployed.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: December 12, 2019, 10:47:10 PM »
Finally, Greta's climate summit speech (for what she criss-crossed the Atlantic).


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 29, 2019, 10:26:31 PM »

Hippocrates once said, you cannot walk the same Arctic sea ice transect twice ... 

I think you're paraphrasing Heraclitus, actually.  Rivers, though, of course.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 16, 2019, 01:20:46 AM »
So nice that he could fund his youtube yachting escapades through such hard work in the oil industry
I also worked in the petroleum industry. And the truth is that I miss the pay!  :'(
I don't know about him, but in some cases, you need guts to leave that job.

19
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 13, 2019, 10:05:27 PM »
^^
I've spotted the very camera shy Nessy. Who knew that she'd been hiding in Venice!
Terry

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 13, 2019, 01:13:12 AM »
Quote
Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) 11/12/19, 6:02 PM
So happy to say I'll hopefully make it to COP25 in Madrid.
I’ve been offered a ride from Virginia on the 48ft catamaran La Vagabonde. Australians @Sailing_LaVaga ,Elayna Carausu & @_NikkiHenderson from England will take me across the Atlantic.
We sail for Europe tomorrow morning!
https://twitter.com/gretathunberg/status/1194389911639642115
Photo at the link.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 12, 2019, 04:21:55 PM »
Well, RAMMB is already done updating. Stuck at GMT 0:42.  :'( :(

22
Arctic Shifts To a Carbon Source Due to Winter Soil Emissions
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-11/nsfc-ast110819.php

A NASA-funded study suggests winter carbon emissions in the Arctic may be adding more carbon into the atmosphere each year than is taken up by Arctic vegetation, marking a stark reversal for a region that has captured and stored carbon for tens of thousands of years.

AAAAAARGH. Carbon emitted from thawing permafrost has not been included in the majority of models used to predict future climates.

"These findings indicate that winter carbon dioxide loss may already be offsetting growing season carbon uptake, and these losses will increase as the climate continues to warm," said Woods Hole Research Center Arctic Program Director Sue Natali, lead author of the study. "Studies focused on individual sites have seen this transition, but until now we haven't had a clear accounting of the winter carbon balance throughout the entire Arctic region."

Researchers estimate a yearly loss of 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon from the permafrost region during the winter season from 2003 to 2017 compared to the estimated average of 1 billion metric tons of carbon taken up during the growing season. ... "The warmer it gets, the more carbon will be released into the atmosphere from the permafrost region, which will add to further warming," ... . AAARGH

For the full quote not maimed by Aaargs hit the link.

Once i lived in a world where we had some time to stop emitting before we lost the Amazon and many other forests. Just the idea of the arctic being a source instead of a sink was stuff for the latter part of this century. Same goes for all the crumbling in the Antarctic which is really neatly documented with gifs and discussions in the subforum.

I was already wondering if we would see sinks fail before the arctic ice technically did and how to phrase that question and in which subforum it should be posted but we can skip that now.

Press F to pay respect.

The world we knew has died because all the overshoot we add now just makes it worse.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: November 06, 2019, 06:43:37 PM »
That risk recedes but does not go to zero as the distance from the Polarstern to the ice edge and open leads rapidly increases. Their staged response involves flares, blasts from the ship's horn, remote guard stations, night vision goggles, trip wires, bear prints in snow, shotguns for scientists, mausers for on-duty guards and so on. The polar bears though are accomplished ambush predators that can, like grizzly bears, outrun a wolf and tear open flimsy shelters. So it is a tough call for the bridge either way, especially with multiple isolated groups responding to a tripwire flare.

Some scientific Arctic expeditions also require a rescue swimmer to accompany people walking away from the ship. It is not possible to self-rescue once bulky clothes are wet and the timeframe is very short. The guard rope around the big CTD hole (above) is unsatisfactory but then it is well-lit so close to the ship. Otherwise, they have safe walking routes established and flagged.

Ridges and leads can form very suddenly but the effect is mostly stranding. Falling through melt pond drains or thinning ice is an issue more for late spring. It's never fully safe but then a motorway is even less safe.

I have not seen mention of a laser interferometer network that would provide better guidance on regional internal ice stress and incipient deformation than the virtual buoy GPS grid that uniq has been building. In past years, we have seen massive leads open up overnight from the easternmost tip of Banks Island (a repeat boundary condition) all the way to the New Siberians, ditto from Morris Jesup. We calculated a lower bound on crack propagation of 45 km/hr.

This is more of a factor mid-winter when the ice is thick and more brittle from the cold. Right now, the very extensive new ice that has formed between the summer minimum and the Siberian shore is incapable of resisting ongoing rotational shear. So it does not participate in that now but it will later as it becomes rigid.

In the vast subject of differential equations, people have been talking for centuries about complications introduced by abstract boundary conditions. In the context of Arctic sea ice, that is meant literally: fixed land encircling the basin and constraints it imposes on ice motion.

When an irresistible force (strong winds blowing against 7.1 m sq km of ice) meets an immovable object (like Kotolny Island), something has to give. And it's not the island. Up to a point, solid ice in the Laptev will inhibit the kind of ice motion we have seen the last week. Beyond that, enormous brittle fractures will become more frequent, putting equipment, people and the Polarstern itself at some risk.

There's a golden opportunity right now because of the unusual persistence and uniformity of ice pack rotation, to determine what (possibly non-unique) arrangement of high and low pressure gives rise to it. Simplistic notions such as the signature of the NAO pressure pattern are wholly inadequate to explain what we are seeing; it will require a more synoptic view of winds and the non-intuitive response of the ice to it that was already noticed on the voyage of the Fram.

Conversely, any theory of ice pack rotation will have to explain cases when the proposed pressure pattern does not result in rotation (or in ccw rotation). Indeed, one of the stated goals of Mosaic is a predictive model 5 days out for ice motion.

This is an instance of a truly massive body rotating nearly frictionlessly like a spinning ice puck near the axis of a rapidly rotating sphere where the coriolis and centrifugal forces are strong, so is different from familiar mid latitude air cyclones and the like.

For example, if the earth were rotating clockwise as seen looking down at the north pole instead of the 4 billion years of ccw, would TransPolar Drift reverse direction? And what about the AMOC:

https://www.livescience.com/62405-what-if-earth-rotation-reversed.html
https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/news/focus-on-overview/retrograde/

24
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: November 06, 2019, 12:15:30 PM »


Someone elsewhere asked is there any plausible scenario where british people are not totally stuffed without even a reasonable chance of recovery within 3 years.

Hmm, what do we need:

Hung parliament
BoJo no confidence
Corbyn no confidence
Swinson puts together a deal accepting labour policies on brexit and a few other areas
Corbyn (not done a suitable deal and too old to fight next election) resigns
A50 extension for negotiations and referendum
Customs Union brexit negotiated
CU brexit or Remain referendum, Remain wins
Country and Tories accept will of people in latest referendum
BoJo steps aside so Remainer can lead party
New Labour leader falls out with Swinson leading to No Confidence
Sensible general election result

Oh yes, the question required plausible .....

Does some complicated comprehensive calculation to estimate probability of these 12 things happening being around 0.002%

Well maybe that probability estimate is somewhere around plausible ?  :P :-[ >:( ;)

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 06, 2019, 02:32:29 AM »
I was working on a paper on climate change with the senior climate lawyer for a given country and they saw no issue with flying themselves and up to 20 others to climate meetings in places like Fiji etc. Stunning intentional ignorance. I bet they fly business class given the distance to be travelled.

Greta should just stay where she is and use Skype, during which she should lambast all the physical COP25 attendees as complete hypocrites (she could borrow a few points from Kevin Anderson). Of course she could have done that rather than take that billionaire's racing yacht across the Atlantic.

Or grab a ride on Air Force One if Trump is going to Europe and act pissed all the way across while sharing via twitter and instagram.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: November 03, 2019, 03:08:41 PM »
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, north CAA/Greenland, 2012-2018 (some missing data)

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Recycling to Reduce Oil Consumption
« on: November 02, 2019, 01:45:56 PM »
Yes, makes sense for sure. and what will happen to all the microplastic when these roads get heat, cold and rain? Yes, goes into the soil. very clever indeed.

All plastics should be banned

28
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 31, 2019, 05:04:40 PM »
The pigs I raise are a rare breed and the genetics available can not be imported from countries with ASF. I have recently spent extra money to improve my herds genetic diversity by buying a few more boars and sows from different breed lines  because when ASF makes it to the U.S. I will have to restrict my breeding program to the animals on my farm. This is called a closed herd.
 Because all the pigs in Southern Calif. are slaughtered at one slaughterhouse the chance of vectoring a bad disease is centered on that facility. The trailer I haul pigs in is washed and Clorox sprayed on the tires every time I visit . There is a chance some rare breeds may go locally extinct as whole herds get slaughtered when exposed to ASF.  Most small farmers can’t afford to keep a closed herd because it requires keeping so many breeding animals . Most of the genetics for Mangalitza pigs in the U.S. is held by less than a dozen farms and if those farms get hit there wouldn’t be enough genetic diversity to keep the breed going here in North America.
 Diversity in livestock breeds is wholly an individual choice as there is no program in the U.S. industrial meat industry that promotes diversity. Same in U.S. vegetable seed stocks, only small farmers bother with heirlooms and keeping the seed bank viable. Only small farmers bother to save seeds or grow exotic breeds of livestock . From a farmers perspective the world is shrinking.
 

29
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 26, 2019, 06:44:45 PM »
New Research on Giant Radio Galaxies Defies Conventional Wisdom
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-giant-radio-galaxies-defies-conventional.html

Conventional wisdom tells us that large objects appear smaller as they get farther from us, but this fundamental law of classical physics is reversed when we observe the distant universe.

Astrophysicists at the University of Kent simulated the development of the biggest objects in the universe to help explain how galaxies and other cosmic bodies were formed. They expected to find that as they simulated objects farther into the distant universe, they would appear smaller, but in fact they found the opposite.

Professor Smith said: "When we look far into the distant universe, we are observing objects way in the past—when they were young. We expected to find that these distant giants would appear as a comparatively small pair of vague lobes. To our surprise, we found that these giants still appear enormous even though they are so far away."

Professor Smith said: "We already know that once you are far enough away, the Universe acts like a magnifying glass and objects start to increase in size in the sky. Because of the distance, the objects we observed are extremely faint, which means we can only see the brightest parts of them, the hot spots. These hot spots occur at the outer edges of the radio galaxy and so they appear to be larger than ever, confounding our initial expectations."

Michael D Smith et al, The morphological classification of distant radio galaxies explored with three-dimensional simulations, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (2019)

----------------------------------

Strange 'Methuselah' Star Appears Older Than the Universe
https://www.space.com/how-can-a-star-be-older-than-the-universe.html

For more than 100 years, astronomers have been observing a curious star located some 190 light years away from Earth in the constellation Libra. It rapidly journeys across the sky at 800,000 mph (1.3 million kilometers per hour). But more interesting than that, HD 140283 — or Methuselah as it's commonly known — is also one of the universe's oldest known stars.

In 2000, scientists sought to date the star using observations via the European Space Agency's (ESA) Hipparcos satellite, which estimated an age of 16 billion years old. Such a figure was rather mind-blowing and also pretty baffling. As astronomer Howard Bond of Pennsylvania State University pointed out, the age of the universe — determined from observations of the cosmic microwave background — is 13.8 billion years old. "It was a serious discrepancy," he said.

... Matthews believes the answers lie in greater cosmological refinement. "I suspect that the observational cosmologists have missed something that creates this paradox, rather than the stellar astrophysicists," he said, pointing to the measurements of the stars being perhaps more accurate. "That's not because the cosmologists are in any way sloppier, but because age determination of the universe is subject to more and arguably trickier observational and theoretical uncertainties than that of stars."

30
If I asked you to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?
<snip>
It's easy I think for our forumfriends from the USA:
 There are some calculations involved converting from one to another unit,
 but if you start doing it every time you encounter a non-SI context,
 with doing the calculations in your head (they are simple calculations),
 you get better and better at it.

And some point you'll be SI metrics 'fluent' :).

It is how learning works (neuroplasticity). I know you are able to do it. Please try and put in some effort. It'll add to your 'toolbox' :).

31
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 25, 2019, 08:24:52 PM »
I get that message a lot.

The mice must really hate me  :-[.

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 25, 2019, 07:21:06 PM »

WHAT? THAT IS INSANE.


No I'll tell you what is insane.  VAG, BMW and Mercedes spending 100bn over the next 10 years, on which they will see virtually no return other than not going bust, compared to today's operations.

Why? Because they ignored the whole situation until it was almost too late and let Tesla take an unassailable lead.

7bn to enter a business worth around $1tn a year and take a niche lead? Peanuts.

Ford and GM spend this kind of money regularly.  The only reason they don't show a loss is because their business is big enough to absorb it.

Tesla is now reaching that critical mass and will be able to self fund everything somewhere in the decade to come.

Of course GSY, you shout and yell and stamp your foot, call us idiots and fools with mental deficient IQ.

All the fools and morons need to do is wait.  Because the fools are aware that, year on year, Tesla proves us correct.

When was it Tesla was going to crash and burn again?
When were they going to run out of cash?
What was the number of Model3's it was going to be impossible to produce?
Gigafactory3 was never going to be built, let alone produce a single car.
The list goes on.

Don't you get tired of being proven wrong?

For 2020, we have the pleasure of your

Model3 is a fraud
Semi is a fraud
Roadster 2.0 is a fraud

To look forward to also being destroyed. 

Not by faith,  dear me no.  Just by waiting for Tesla to do it.

We'll be here.  Don't wait up.

33
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 25, 2019, 07:01:49 PM »
B_,
Relax, the mice in the inter-tuby-thing can only run so fast.  :P

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: October 22, 2019, 02:26:17 PM »
But but but ... if what you are saying was true, slow-wing, then calm ocean surface should start freezing at less than -2 degrees Centigrade. And it doesn't.

The reason being that as the surface layers cool, they start sinking and warmer waters start rising from below. So even in calm weather, there will be quite a lot of vertical movement of water due to turbulence caused by heat loss at the surface.

Anecdotal evidence (which has been repeatedly discussed in this forum) indicates that calm ocean surface starts freezing at an air temperature of around -11C, indicating that this is the level at which sinking of cooled-down waters at surface is not fast enough to avoid freezing.

35
In la la land the snow falls thick as ice cream off a lolly stick
and every year an ice age starts , denied again by some old farts

while forecasts come and forecasts go , we only mention those with snow
all the others we ignore 'cause sunshine's such an effing bore.
+5000  ;D

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 17, 2019, 11:52:04 AM »

https://translate.google.co.il/translate?hl=en&tab=rT1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.globes.co.il%2Fnews%2Farticle.aspx%3Fdid%3D1001303895

Quote
Tesla is examining the Israeli car market for the possibility of direct entry into marketing in Israel
...
Automotive industry sources have said in recent months that Tesla's European division has been reviewing the conditions of the local car market, among others, the country's charging infrastructure and their engineering conformity to Tesla's rapid charging stations modeled by Superchargers and dedicated to the company's vehicles. In addition, various logistical options and conditions for activity in the country were examined, and inquiries were also made to managers in the automotive industry for the purpose of examining the possibility of a transaction in Tesla's administrative and operational system, if and when the activity begins here. It should be noted that so far no official approval of the company has been granted.
...
It should be noted that until recently, Israeli transport regulations prevented the possibility of importers / manufacturers not registered as an Israeli company importing vehicles into Israel; However, amendments that are currently included in the traffic regulations will soon allow a vehicle to be imported into Israel by a company / importer owned by a foreign corporation registered abroad.

Finally (though just rumors at the moment).
Israel is very small, quite flat, and very crowded with lots of stop-and-go traffic. Fuel is very expensive. EVs are a no brainer, especially considering taxes.
Israel has a ~70% import duty on ICE vehicles, but only 10% on mass market BEVs, very few of which are actually imported. The tax is planned to go up in the next few years, with the expected rise in sales.
Unlike the US, most Israelis live in high rise buildings so don't have their own garage. However, many buildings have underground parking lots with access to electricity.
The car market is very robust, a lot of which has to do with insufficient public transport. To add insult to injury there's no public transport on the Sabbath. Local politicians are hell-bent on doing evil, so solutions for actual problems are always late and partial.
In addition, there's a large hi-tech sector, relatively well-to-do and open to innovations, and a lot of awareness to environmental issues.
I expect Tesla to find quick success in Israel.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 01:06:46 AM »
… but all we have to do is wait & see (just a few years).
I definitely don't like the "wait & see". I am concerned about passing no-return points. If we look at volume, we lost almost 1/3 on 2000-2009 and almost 2/3 on 2010-2019, against the 1979-2000 average.

That is too much!

The 2007, 2012 and 2019 are outliers when you see NSIDC extent figures, but not with PIOMAS volumes. I also don't like monthly averages on extent. 2016 was a terrible year, but because it had an early refreeze, doesn't look that bad. 2017 was also a terrible year looking at volume the whole year. It was just ok around September.

IMO, 2020-2029 will be pretty bad, even if we only have 2 or 3 years like 2012. We don't need a BOE, if Greenland ice and permafrost accelerate their melt.

P.D. Of course, following the events on the ASIF, I am on the "wait & see". But I am becoming more an activist also.

38
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: October 09, 2019, 02:16:29 PM »
Salinity data needs to be taken from the dat files and added to the data frame first,
 tdata$salinity <- as.numeric(txdata$Salinity)
in the .dat import loop, same place temperature is added, then replace color = ~tempC with color = ~salinity in the plotly setup (it takes columns from the data frame specified at the start)

One problem I'm running into is that you can only use one colorscale per plot, still trying to hack my way around that, until then not sure how to display both data, maybe as circle lines, or offset slightly in one direction to make a two sided curtain..

I made the bathy work on ITP 116 which is floating around the north pole and just crossing the Lomonosov ridge, you can see the buoy got stuck for a while in spot where there's an almost 2km vertical cliff / cutout in the ridge. Takes a bit to load but worth it:

 https://rpubs.com/macid/ITP116_TempC_Bathy (hover over a bathy point to see depth in meters, not to z-axis scale..)


39
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: October 09, 2019, 01:21:20 PM »
Good progress. I got stuck attempting to change the temperature bar to salinity but my R plotly knowledge is zero. I couldn't see how to change the variable. :( Is it possible to show temp and salinity on the same scene?
I'm also wondering about using your 2d version for the mosaic iatb buoys http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html though manual download is a bit laborious.

40
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: October 08, 2019, 02:41:39 AM »
I changed my username here too.. still think it's dying but less obnoxious

first attempt at adding bathymetry, http://rpubs.com/macid/ITP119_TempC_Bathy
was stuck most of the evening on assigning a separate color scale to this layer but have to do with height as indicator for now. Also intend to add some wind, air temps and ice tendencies indicators as information blobs above the curtains

And I forced x,y ranges to equal dimensions in the new script, else the buoys path was getting stretched in on or the other direction, most paths created yesterday had fairly even x/y range, so not much of an issue but good to get right.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 03, 2019, 02:45:45 AM »
Hello A-Team! Your posts are always welcome. Astounding visualization.

I was wondering if Mosaic might make their thickness measurements available. I am more interested in the many floes they skip, rather than the one floe they finally select (if they even manage to find a suitable one). I see this a a very rare opportunity to compare direct local measurements to SMOS remote sensing and to PIOMAS modelling.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 03, 2019, 12:06:18 AM »
Mosaic is a fantastic endeavor that will provide a massive amount of observational data via an incredible array of modern instrumentation (relative to the last go-round, SHEBA, of 1999). Results will dominate the scientific literature on the Arctic Ocean for years to come because the interior basin has heretofore largely gone un-instrumented.

Mosaic will greatly improve the interpretability of satellite imagery and provide a reality check on model predictions never regularly confronted with observation. Just having real weather assimilated into daily ECMWF initializations is a huge step forward over meagre shoreline inputs, for example measured 2m winds responsible for icepack motion and export.

Ice-atmosphere couplings (eg radiative balance, boundary layer turbulent flux, cloud properties) depend on location and weather, not on the floe selected. While the Polarstern provides the center of observation, the secondary deployments go out a radius of 40 km. With drift, this generate a swath of measurements nearly a degree of latitude wide (111 km) wide, rather than point data (mooring) or line data (buoy).

The second study component is the ice itself. It has not yet proved possible to determine ice mass balance issues (thickness, bottom growth, melt ponds) year-round with any accuracy from remote sensing, much less modeling, so the comprehensive thicknesses will be a real breath of fresh air.

The third focus is water column under the ice. The anticipated drift across the Eurasian Basin does not seem ideal for the study of encroaching Atlantification (like N-ICE2015 or the PS's recent visit to the upper Fram), though the northern Laptev is an area of very active concern for mixing of thermal and saline stratifications.

It's never been clear what provides the vast volumes of return water to the East Greenland Current because the Waddell Sea and points north have been under thick ice for ages. Mosaic has an acoustic tomography experiment going relative to new moorings that can address this.

Mosaic planners knew from the outset that finding a suitable floe would be mission-critical. They allocated a full week for that search; as I write, the ship has been at N 85°12' E 134°18' for eight hours. They are looking for 1.2 m or thicker ice, a port-side mooring for logistics, and a large enough floe so that electricity and LAN data lines can reach remote instrumentation.

The safety issues involve pressure ridges heaving experimental set-ups, leads opening suddenly, nearby floes over-rafting, patches of very thin ice, strong swells from remote storms, aggressive penguins walruses and bears, plus working long hours in cold, dark and possibly very windy conditions. (The PS serves alcohol at two on-board bars.)

I am skeptical -- based on the multi-satellite September time series below -- that they will find the perfect floe at 85ºN because the Laptev is in such poor condition but if they go much farther towards the Pole, there may not be notable net drift towards the Fram.

The gif below shows Osisaf, Ascat and Smos embedded within a novel differential AMSR2. The complex palette is provided in the lower left corner. The Polarstern search wedge, called a spherical rectangle or section double frustrum, is shown as an overlay (map adornment) for each satellite. The base resolution is 6.25 km/pxl for AMSR2 unchanged from archive.

With so much data coming in so many forms, synchronized integration becomes increasingly important in science-retaining visualizations. While this one was easy enough to make, it doesn't roll forward because of the differencing wrt a fixed final day, 30 Sep 19.

44
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 24, 2019, 04:25:18 PM »
  Boris is not quite the pro. rogue he thought he was .   ..  b.c.

Boris the un-pro. rogue ?

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 24, 2019, 12:26:51 AM »
Walrus - 1; Russian Navy - nil

Walrus Attacks Russian Navy, Sinking Inflatable Boat
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/walruses-attack-russian-navy-sinking-inflatable-boat/

Last week, a Russian Navy rescue tug—the Altai from the Northern Fleet—dispatched a rigid inflatable boat to Wilczek Island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago, which is an Arctic island chain occupied only by wildlife and Russian military personnel. Aboard the boat were sailors and scientists from the Russian Geographic Society, and as they attempted a landing at Cape Geller, their boat was attacked and sunk by a female walrus, "[which] she probably did fearing for her cubs," an RGO news release noted.

While the boat sank, the crew leader managed to get the boat close enough to land for everyone to get ashore safely, according to the RGO's spokesperson.

No walruses were harmed, according to the Northern Fleet


46
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 22, 2019, 05:11:34 PM »
An analogy to what is going on seems to be like a DDoS

A distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack is a malicious attempt to disrupt normal traffic of a targeted server, service or network by overwhelming the target or its surrounding infrastructure with a flood of Internet traffic.

This efforts may, or may not be malicious, but the outcome is the same. It 'cools' participation by the other users in the forum.

Other users may look upon this as sniping, bullying or whining.

What it really is, is an expectation by all users to a level of moderation, and respect for the other users.

Monopolizing the forum is simply deliberate bad forum etiquette, especially if the issue has already been brought to one's attention. Linking to climate denial sites is also not appreciated.

If you can't meet that minimum, then lurk.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:43:56 PM »
Hi.

Longtime lurker who has just registered to echo the other posts.

Thank-you so much gerontocrat, Juan and all the other myriad posters who post and analyse the data to help us mere mortals understand what is happening up north.

As a primary school teacher in the UK I try my best to educate the young minds and possible future leaders of our county. Your data and explanations help me provide the evidence of what our civilization is doing to the planet and help shape the thoughts of the next generation.

Just posting to give my thanks... now back to lurking and not cluttering up threads :)

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 05:19:02 PM »
Sorry, about 4th lowest?  I keep forgetting about 2007.
NSIDC
Yes. It seems wrong that NSIDC keeps 2019 above 2007. It doesn't match with what we see on ADS NIPR (JAXA), even that we know that NSIDC has less accuracy on their measurement.

If you look at the daily data rather than Chartic, which is a running average, you'll see that 2019 is below both 2007 and 2016 minima.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:24:44 AM »
September 13-17.

2018.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:08:47 PM »
I got no reaction to that...
Not everything one posts is important enough for a reaction...

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