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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 23, 2021, 02:58:43 PM »
British scientists already had concluded that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30%-70% faster than the previous dominant coronavirus strain in the U.K.
That range is expanding downwards. I've yet to see a robust analysis showing its changed, but its hard to explain how low R is under lockdown with B.1.1.7 dominant unless its at or below the lower end of that range. 50-70% was pretty robust for December, and it still looks pretty robust for Denmark, but I haven't seen a decent analysis of UK data in January that says anything other than the data has got messier.
Possibly the main advantage B.1.1.7 has is reducing or reversing the advantage adult spreaders have over children so closing the schools has drastically reduced its relevance. Thats the hypothesis I'm looking to disprove at the moment. I think greater mobility than April is roughly balanced by greater immunity from infection than April, but same R as April needs something that affects B.1.1.7 in particular.