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Messages - be cause

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.


2
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: July 02, 2020, 02:43:00 PM »
Would it be possible to put all the COVID tread on one single place ? I find it quite problematic to have them in different parts of the forum.

Treads also have to be renamed if the subject changes. There is no reason to talk about air flow in a mask tread.

Thanks,

Etienne

3
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Zachariae Isstrøm / Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden / NE Greenland
« on: July 01, 2020, 05:36:19 PM »
Does the movement of the large slab in the Spaltegletscher area count as calving?

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=9&lat=79.78214&lng=-20.35217&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2020-06-30T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2020-06-30T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=1_TRUE_COLOR&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&gain=0.6

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:59:30 AM »
Quote from: be cause on July 01, 2020, 01:16:36 AM
There was a lift-off of the ice East of Alert around to the Nares enterance . It can be seen best on Worldview atm as you zoom in @ 50km/50ml a.. as you zoom closer the frame changes to showing cracking but the departure from shore is no longer clear .
  Lincoln is an amazing zone of shear , disintergration and melting of what looked like the safest ice in the Arctic only 2 weeks ago .
         +++             It's now gettin' ground up like salt in situ !  b.c.
As it happened. Click to run.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 09:14:16 PM »
Quote from: be cause on June 30, 2020, 08:56:58 PM
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned

It seems that the latest EURO forecast (Tuesday, June 30 12Z) is also showing a very strong High pressure system parked over the CAB for the next 10 days. 

As has been stated in the forum many times, any forecast beyond 5 days is highly uncertain.  But if GFS and EURO forecasts turn out to be even somewhat accurate, then the next several days will likely mean a significant hit to the ice.  (FRIV will probably have much more colorful language to characterize it that I look forward to reading.)

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 29, 2020, 10:58:52 PM »
The period between 2028 – 2032 still seems to me to be the most likely timeframe for the first BOE event based on the linear regression of the data.

I would love to get perspectives regarding the MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS that will drive the sea ice decline to less than 1,000,000 Km2.  From my understanding of the ASIF posts over the years, the following seem the top driving factors – and some FEEDBACK LOOPS among them – toward an Ice-Free Arctic.

1)   “Mechanical:”  That is, the flow of ice out of the CAB, primarily through the Fram Strait.  This factor would seem to generally become more prominent going forward given earlier breakup of the ice back and detachment of fast ice allowing the freer flow of ice for a longer period.    Thus, less overall ice remaining in the CAB that needs to thermally melt.

2)  “Bottom Melt:”  The impact of Atlantification, and to a lesser extent Pacification,  are slowly and steadily are warming up the arctic ocean and increasing bottom melt.   

3)   Albedo / Surface Melt:   The increasing ice melt is a positive feedback loop that enable the sun to further warn the arctic sea.  The degree of melt ponds and melting momentum that Neven cited in 2012 is an example.  But is seems with the breakup / fracturing of the ice since 2012, there doesn’t seem to be the same ability to have the degree of melt ponds as occurred in 2012.  Instead, it seems that there are now more Polynyas which warms the ocean around the edges of an icepack vs. a ponding situation where it would warm directly on the icepack.   (I look at Tealight’s AWP graphs as an indicator of greater potential and try to learn from it.)

4)   Weather: Specifically, looking the following aspects.   
(i) A major or consistent dipole that focuses winds that drive the ice out the CAB and into the Atlantic.   
(ii) GAC or similarly strong storms that breaks up the ice mechanically and also churn up the ocean water layers and bring the heat content from the mid-depths up to the surface that drives bottom melt.
(iii)  Higher pressure, thus sunnier weather to drive the radiative melting and increase the heat content of the ocean.
(iv) Air temperature / WAA.  Given the relatively low heat content of air vs. water or ice, this one seems to somewhat less impactful overall than the three above weather factors.

Would love to hear others’ thoughts.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: June 28, 2020, 09:46:48 AM »
If I may add, the ice distribution in Hycom is very weird, with all the thick ice up to 5m bunched very near to Greenland and the CAA, and the rest of the CAB at a measly 2-2.5m. I find it very hard to believe this represent a true gradient, and Cryosat-SMOS does not support this either.

It now occurs to me that an ASCAT animation, showing where the old ice is and covering the period leading up to mid-April, could be very useful here as well. There should some animations available that uniquorn has posted through the winter and spring, will look for a suitable one.

8
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 28, 2020, 03:57:01 AM »
As a long-time mostly-lurker, my 2 cents is: the only thing I care about here is the science. The rest is fluff, at best, and often just gets in the way.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 28, 2020, 01:31:28 AM »
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Surge By More Than 45,000 As States Roll Back Reopenings
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/27/us-coronavirus-cases-surge-by-more-than-45000-as-states-roll-back-reopenings.html



There were 45,255 additional Covid-19 cases reported across the nation on Friday, bringing the total to more than 2.46 million cases, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

As of Friday, the U.S. seven-day average of new cases increased more than 41% compared with a week ago.

Deaths caused by Covid-19 lag behind other data points such as hospitalizations, which lag confirmed infections as the disease can take weeks to fully develop in a person.

Hospitalizations due to Covid-19 were growing in 14 states as of Friday, according to a CNBC analysis of Covid Tracking Project data.

As of Friday, Texas reported a 57% increase in hospitalizations, based on a seven-day average, compared with one week ago. It's average number of daily cases grew by nearly 70%, according to John Hopkins data.

... Harris County, which includes Houston, moved to its highest Covid-19 threat level, signalling a “severe and uncontrolled” outbreak.

“The harsh truth is that our current infection rate is on pace to overwhelm our hospitals in the very near future,” Lina Hidalgo, the county judge, said at a press conference on Friday. “We opened too quickly.”

https://abc13.com/stay-home-work-safe-order-lina-hidalgo-coronavirus-texas-reopen/6270984/

As of Friday, Arizona reported a 36% increase in hospitalizations, based on a seven-day average, compared with one week ago. It's average number of daily cases grew by more than 42%, according to John Hopkins data.

Today, AZ hospitals statewide are filling up with patients, some critically ill. The state had more than 66,000 confirmed cases as of Friday, up from just over 20,000 on June 1. Thousands more are being reported each day, and 1,535 people have died.

More than 2,400 people are hospitalized with coronavirus this week, up from about 1,000 three weeks ago. More than 600 ICU beds were filled with virus patients this week, two-thirds of them on ventilators and sedated.

Arizona has just over 200 empty ICU beds, out of about 1,600 in the state. More are being added as hospitals brace for a flood of patients as newly infected people slowly get sicker. Traveling nurses are being hired from other states to back up overworked staff.

Some states, like Texas and Florida, have had to re-close some businesses while others, like Arizona, have put any further plans on pause.

Florida has broken its one-day record for new coronavirus infections for a second straight day with an additional 9,636 positive cases, the state’s department of health said on Saturday.

There were 76,129 tests conducted Friday, with a 12.7% positivity rate, officials said.

------------------------------

Meanwhile ...

Donald Trump’s motorcade has just arrived at Trump National Golf Club in Loudoun County, according to the White House press pool.

According to CNN senior congressional correspondent Manu Raju, this marks the 271st day he’s spent at one of his golf clubs and 363rd time at one of his properties in his presidency in the 1,254 days since taking office.

...  “a woman walking a small white dog nearby gave the motorcade a middle-finger salute”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/1276885817378684928



------------------------------------


10
Arctic sea ice / HYCOM
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:50:42 AM »
I think this model deserves its own thread. I was using another thread but I want to focus on this model. Some experienced users don't think it is very good but I want to follow it for a while and see. Because there is conflicting opinions on its value I decided to keep it off the main melting thread and it doesn't really fit elsewhere. To get started if you compare 2019 on 6/25 and 9/25 final area roughly conforms to anything black or thicker on 6/25. I would like to see if 2020 follows the same pattern. In a few days I will compare other years.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 24, 2020, 11:21:01 AM »
Quote from: kassy on June 23, 2020, 03:29:13 PM
Detailed mask discussions can be held in that thread.
The issue is not full protection but a little is better then none.

The rule I'm following for masks post is:

If it is about masks and their relationship to c19, the post goes here. If it is about masking alone (masking efficiency, proper mask use, etc) I use the masking thread.




12
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 22, 2020, 08:26:14 PM »
Quote from: Tom_Mazanec on June 20, 2020, 03:57:10 AM
Has any culture past or present been free of racism? Maybe the San, nanning? Any other possibility?
I think you need to watch this Jane Elliott experiment if you want to understand discrimination. We are all capable of it.

Quote
Blue eyes, brown eyes: What Jane Elliott's famous experiment says about race 50 years on

Elliot is best known as the teacher who, on April 5, 1968, the day after Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated, put her third-grade students through a bold exercise to teach them about racial prejudice. She divided the children, who were all white, by eye color, and then she told the children that people with brown eyes were smarter, faster and better than those with blue eyes. What happened next proved to Elliot that prejudice is a learned behavior. Which means, she says, it can be unlearned.

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/local/karinabland/2017/11/17/blue-eyes-brown-eyes-jane-elliotts-exercise-race-50-years-later/860287001


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 02:14:55 PM »
FG and all, I ask from now on to post only wide GIFs (>700 pixels) to this thread, rather than MP4. The reason is MP4 files load automatically, while GIFs require a click and thus can be avoided.
It is okay to post narrow auto-loading GIFs, but they must be very small, up to 500KB. This will enable wider readership and impose less hardship on those with limited data connections.

BTW, thanks to all who upload animations here, this takes quite an effort and can convey a lot of information that is not available otherwise.

14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 17, 2020, 03:28:46 PM »
Howdy folks,

Just to let you know, I'm back in the operator's chair here in Alert for another few months (likely until mid-October).  This will be my final tour in Alert, sadly, but I'll try to prod the next operator into logging in occasionally!

I saw plenty of ponding going on out the window of the plane on my flight up yesterday (we generally fly straight up the Nares), things are starting to melt quickly!

15
Developers Corner / Re: Test space
« on: June 16, 2020, 10:49:48 PM »
testing melt expectations for july15 based on uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh
intermediate colours show number of years (out of the 8 available) which had open water on 15 July
not by me

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 11, 2020, 02:41:12 AM »
Quote from: Freegrass on June 11, 2020, 01:16:53 AM
Quote from: Freegrass on June 10, 2020, 01:36:15 PM
Not looking so disastrous for the ice anymore. I think we dodged a bullet here...
I need to take this back. It's looking much worse again on the new forecast. And I'm just talking about the wind here! I'm not talking about the temperature. But I stand corrected. It's looking bad... That's why I'll shut up now on the forecasts and leave the interpretation to those who know what they are talking about...

I posted a new forecast with Wind @ Surface in the Nullschool thread.

That takes a real man.

The models are really bad.

Just look at the modis image above and you can see the only area not being crushed is under that vortex.

You can see the current heights, pressure, and temps aren't brutal.

But the response over the ice is relative to albedo.

Thanks to the boiling May things easily broke down.

And the models all show much warmer widespread sun on the way and it's already bad

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 11, 2020, 01:16:53 AM »
Quote from: Freegrass on June 10, 2020, 01:36:15 PM
Not looking so disastrous for the ice anymore. I think we dodged a bullet here...
I need to take this back. It's looking much worse again on the new forecast. And I'm just talking about the wind here! I'm not talking about the temperature. But I stand corrected. It's looking bad... That's why I'll shut up now on the forecasts and leave the interpretation to those who know what they are talking about...

I posted a new forecast with Wind @ Surface in the Nullschool thread.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Damming Bering Straits to Restore Sea-ice - Reduction in Warmer Atlantic Water
« on: June 08, 2020, 04:03:10 AM »
It's not that simple.
1. The reason water flows north is freshwater runoff raising sealevel 1/2m, this freezes at a higher temperature than seawater so you won't establish a seaice refuge without refreezing the bottom.

2. To give sea mammals a path works with sea lanes being freshwater flow that channeled next to shore so it doesn't melt seaice from below, which is why the Beaufort Sea is rotten ice vs 7-9yr old ice icebreakers couldn't steam through yet can now.

3. The thread doesn't present all the work nicely, will try to get images back up, the design keeps freshwater near shore, noccross-ocean traffic it's all confined 3-5km or less from shore.


The high Arctic is in "runaway greenhouse" mode without a precise fix, CO2 grew in rate-of-change in 2019 and is now the highest since the mid-Plioceene world with NO ICE, sealevel 74m/240ft higher.

Do these 4 things to nearly zero emissions enough fast enough, and with the Bering Strait Dam in place having a year-round seaice refugia it's a best try to slow it and maintain economies.

FIRST: Flip towns off-grid, its magnet motor for 1300hp/1-Mw is small, 2ft×7in/61×17cm, fits -=> cars, trucks, tractors, trains, aeroplanes & ships at sea.

This implies cars on up no refueling or recharging for the LIFETIME of the owner.

The 1300hp/1-Mw has a "half-century" warranty of 24/7 power, normal upkeep. Magnets -10%flux/1000yrs, it's the only power source to pursue.

So, a 17yr R&D; Belgian: bi . ly/2uzvMNc RF-5000, sparkless for use with explosives, military-spec, ships in a container, being adapted to aircraft.

Home•farm•ranch, panels can use as the inverter: 10kw•$15k, 5kw•$8k, 1.2-cents/kwh; '20-year warranty',1.2-cents/kwh; S. Korean: bit . ly/2tXG1dQ

The 5kw fits a pickup toolbox, quiet, no fumes indoors -> good for builders, $35/mo+int, both 24x7 power.

These are the ONLY machines ready for assembly-line, high-volume design & production I found in trade studies, you try.

They are a real path to a near zero-emission, tiny carbon-footprint motive power for all machines on the planet, any size.

SECOND: Use ALGAE to purify effluent at the sewage plant, same growers for home•farm•ranch, this emits O2 and removes CO2 before burning it.

Then, the oils & biomass can become biodiesel and derivatives, from a pilot study I did for Phoenix, AZ, a 10M-gallon/day plant can produce about 3M-gallon/day of biodiesel.

Gov. Jan Brewer and her EPA head were on board, Siemens & others, ASU & local labs used in R&D, we got shot down by her party, the GOP in the USA.

Too bad, eh? Sound familiar?

THIRD: Have ALL IC-Engine mfg's making motors use N.Tesla Tailpipes, new & used, it's a one-way air valve with no moving parts that nearly ZEROES emissions.

This eliminates soot from biodiesel 😊, scales to industrial smokestacks, it reduces back-pressure, improves performance.

And, he tied it to IC-Engines for this purpose 80yrs ago, time to use them.

FOURTH: It all boils down to dealing with Arctic seaice, HEAT GAINED in the 2007 retreat was 95,000-Twh over average.

Closing all Steam-age power plants 250Mwh and above is a one-time save of 36,000-Twh in emitted wasteheat.

That's 2•1/2-times too little to balance the gain vs the loss compared to the 1980-2000 average ice extent.

Losing the seaice is GAME-OVER on controlling the GAME-ON of genuine "Runaway" in the Arctic CH4 sources, this is what to me brings the extremes in weather vs assuming it'd get tropical to midwest farmers.

Also, the Arctic Ocean is at the aragonite saturation point, all that a local marine biologist saw flying over the newly opened water were jellyfish, millions of them.

There is no salmon fishery there as it becomes open water unless routed as below behind levees.

TODO: Install a weir dam at St. Lawrence Is. and polder north the entire Chukchi Sea to prevent wave damage and stratify the water to refreeze the bottom creating a year-round seaice refuge.

ALL SHIPPING confined within 3-4km of shore, NO cross-ocean traffic, this uses Dutch ships, materials & methods to start to create seaice polders, shoals & levees.

And, by building submerged "atolls" encircling methane vents that use the bubble flow to pull in colder bottom water we can refreeze them.

It all confines the freshwater runoff and most of all limits early melting from shore out to-sea in spring.

This reduces the 5-Amazons of warmer, fresher water to 1/100th of what is rapidly melting the seaice from below.

Fresher water freezes at a higher temperature so true seaice isn't formed at the surface on freezeup, it needs -2C/28.4F for seaice to last over ONE season.

This intends to prevent the Siberian jetstream from turning north & can be modelled, the N.Pacific is too warm so heats the airmass from below, with 'The Blob' in the Gulf of AK, it drives the circulation pattern needing change back to Holocene patterns.

So, the warmth sends rain to Anchorage in December and frozen oranges to Florida the routine now, started early, as that air cools it gets to low latitudes ONLY over LAND to balance equatorial overheating.

The concept has 47,500 views on a seaice forum and zero actions upon it [bit.ly/35Ly3BW].

It's the only geographic location on Earth with the ability to alter the Anthropocene jetstream paths back into N.America instead of going north.

I can't order it done, the people in the poop deck party think everything's fine with lifeboats in the water?

Expect flooding after early snow, cold ground for maximum runoff vs a normal Holocene year, or worse, it stays cold.

Welcome to the Anthropocene, CO2 won't go below 400ppm for >>120,000-years as oceans outgas their aragonite losses by reversing the carbonic acid cycle which acidifies fast and goes alkaline very slowly, a bio•geochemical hysteresis:
CO2 + CO3₌ + H2O ⇄ 2 HCO3-

It's a realistic reason to consider extinction with business-as-usual as a final result in 3,500-5,000yrs.

"The rate of acidification is 10-times faster or more than anything we have seen for the past 50-million years and perhaps over the last 300-million years.".  ICES ASC 2013 Plenary Lecture;
Dr Richard Feely, 7:40 into 1:01:08; 14:30 in CO2 vertical maps; bit.ly/2QKD7Cj

Very sensible and comprehensive of relevant fundamentals; "Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago: What it Means for Us";
Dr. Scott Wing, Smithsonian Museum of Nat' History; 1:44:14; bit.ly/2NlgcLL [Temp chart duration: Solomon et al., 2009, PNAS, 44:00; insect predation, 36:40, loss of nutrients from CO2, 37:30;]

Modelling climate, what a "carbon excursion" is to paleontology, 1st part awards, great talk, illuminating: We are too close to the total carbon of the PETM, about 3•parts per mil.
Emiliani Lecture: AGU 2012 Fall Mtg; "No Future Without a Past 'or' History will Teach us Nothing";
Dr. Richard Zeebe, Univ.of Hawaii; 52:57; bit.ly/36MXrIK

Dr. Peter Ward, UW paleontologist, short talk on the almost mammalian extinction, biomarker paleontology, and using hydrogen-sulfide for critical care as an evolved result in humans; 29:05; bit.ly/2TvotAB
Ymmv.

19
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 08, 2020, 12:51:23 AM »
9 of our 13 city council members here in Minneapolis announced their plans to dismantle the police department today...

Now all we have to do is dismantle racism ! :)

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 07, 2020, 10:22:32 PM »
New Zealand.
Zero new cases for sixteen days, zero community transmissions for two months,  one active case.
We will go back to normal life  this week.
As NZ is the only developed country to successfully eliminate the virus  we will retain boarder restrictions and quarantine new arrivals for fourteen days to keep your germs out.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 03, 2020, 08:44:35 PM »
Quote from: ArcticMelt2 on June 03, 2020, 06:43:11 PM
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0

By the way, it is funny that the area of snow in North America (without Greenland) (the last column) for the last week of May (22nd) is now the maximum after 2004... Maximum over the past 16 years. And someone else does not believe in the cooling effect from aerosols of bitumen oil extracted in Canada.  :)

Believe it or not, I still believe it is more linked to a shift of the Arctic ice volume center of mass location toward Groenloand that affects air masses patern accordingly. But I guess it will need more data to demonstrate this. ;) If it makes little sense, arctic ice melt should be slowed closer to Canadian archipelagio.
Perhaps both factor are to be accounted for..  more aerosols creates further precipitation, cooler temperature helps preserve the snow.


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 02, 2020, 04:50:18 AM »
We are somewhat going round in circles here. Is WAA important? yes. Does it prove DHACSOO? No, IMHO. I can understand how DHACSOO would arise when the basis of the hypothesis was watching the 2019 melting season, and imagining the surviving ice to be away from energy sources. But a look at the ice distribution in 2016 may have given rise to a completely different hypothesis.
Would you care to comment on this image, and what might explain it? What the heck happened at the North Pole? Where did the energy come from, and what's to prevent from it showing up again? And why did the ESS not bow to its proximity to a heat-advecting continent?
Compare to bathymetry and see if fits the SOO part. I think enough years show the perceived correlation to be almost a coincidence (except on the Atlantic border) - 2007 in the shallow Laptev vs. the deep ice-free CAB, 2011 and 2016 in the shallow ESS, most years in the deep but ice-free Beaufort.

My own explanation is that the ice is very mobile, and the shape of its distribution at minimum depends on prevailing winds and currents, with most years following the typical transport pattern from Siberia to Ellesmere/Greenland.



For comparison, here are the same-date images for 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2019:









23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 29, 2020, 12:54:02 AM »
Quote from: blumenkraft on May 28, 2020, 11:08:08 PM
Again, on the topic of the Kara sea. Here's a zoom in. 24./26./28.05.
       Thanks for those superb and highly informative images blumenkraft.  Am I correct that the reported Extent and Area values for that location on those three days is likely to show virtually no change?  Yet the change is dramatic when ice quality and thickness is considered.  That is the monster hiding under the bed for ASI loss.  It doesn't change much for a long time as it absorbs energy and rots out .... and then it falls prey to some intermittent melting event.

        A similar point (albeit in a far distant context) about smooth model projection tractories vs. the bumpy ups and downs of what actually happens is made in a short video by Peter Sinclair https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/28/new-video-breaking-bad-news-in-florida-keys/
 
       That may seem off-topic, but my point is that the same principle applies to Arctic melt and is becoming increasingly relevant as 2020 early season conditioning softens up the ice for a potential sucker punch later.  Because of the ways we measure/perceive changes, they don't make an impression until a threshold is exceeded and then change seems to erupt suddenly.  But it was building all along.

       Loss of MYI was strike 1 of 'below the surface' change.  Thickness decline leading to structural weakness, fracturing and increased mobility is strike 2.  Strike 3 is when the rot is no longer hidden.

       As Juan Garcia's tag line says, Extent losses mask the other dimension of Thickness loss which is not as intuitively apparent to our visually based monitoring.  Thus, an entire dimension of ASI decline is essentially hidden, and accumulates with less notice.  Then another GAC (or current forecast for large areas of clear sky within 24-->10 days before solstice, https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.prcp-tcld-topo) comes around and Wham!, a whole lot of built-up change potential suddenly becomes manifest, appearing as a dramatic new event even to folks who have been watching all along. 

       I'm preaching to the choir of course, and not revealing anything new to the people who come here.  But those pictures compelled me to comment on ice condition as an under-appreciated dimension, and as the defining characteristic of the 2020 melt season so far.  Call me Chicken-Little, but that ice looks dangerous.  And the records indicate that reaching that condition in May is anomalously early for the Kara Sea.

       All of which is a long-winded way of saying what A-Team (I think) once said.... one of these days... the ice will go "poof."  The nature of complex, interactive, chaotic systems is to not see change coming until it suddenly happens.

24
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: May 25, 2020, 04:39:24 PM »
The colonists also introduced agriculture whilst most Africans used to be hunter/gatherers.

well...

Ancient and Traditional Agriculture, Pastoralism, and Agricultural Societies in Sub-Saharan Africa 
Andrew B. Smith

African domesticated animals, with the exception of the donkey, all came from the Near East. Some 8,000 years ago cattle, sheep, and goats came south to the Sahara which was much wetter than today. Pastoralism was an off-shoot of grain agriculture in the Near East, and those herders immigrating brought with them techniques of harvesting wild grains. With increasing aridity as the Saharan environment dried up around 5000 years ago, the herders began to control and manipulate their stands resulting in millet and sorghum domestication in the Sahel Zone, south of the Sahara. Pearl millet expanded to the south and was taken up by Bantu-speaking Iron Age farmers in the savanna areas of West Africa and then spread around the tropical forest into East Africa by 3000 b.p. As the Sahara dried up and the tsetse belts retreated, sheep and cattle also moved south. They expanded into East Africa via a tsetse-free environment of the Ethiopian highlands arriving around 4000 b.p. It took around 1000 years for the pastoralists to adapt to other epizootic diseases rife in this part of the continent before they could expand throughout the grasslands of Kenya and Tanzania. Thus, East Africa was a socially complex place 3000 years ago, with indigenous hunters, herders and farmers. This put pressure on pastoral use of the environment, so using another tsetse-free corridor from Tanzania, through Zambia to the northern Kalahari, then on to the Western Cape, herders moved to southern Africa, arriving 2000b.p. They were followed to the eastern part of South Africa by Bantu-speaking agro-pastoralists 1600 years ago who were able to use the summer rainfall area for their sorghum and millet crops.

Control and manipulation of African indigenous plants of the forest regions probably has a long history from use by hunter-gatherers, but information on this is constrained by archaeological evidence, which is poor in tropical environments due to poor preservation. Evidence for early palm oil domestication has been found in Ghana dated to around 2550b.p. Several African indigenous plants are still widely used, such as yams, but the plant which has spread most widely throughout the world is coffee, originally from Ethiopia. Alien plants, such as maize, potatoes and Asian rice have displaced indigenous plants over much of Africa.

https://oxfordre.com/environmentalscience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389414.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389414-e-179


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 23, 2020, 11:47:29 AM »
Very interesting discussions going on here, and very relevant to the upcoming season.
Just please do not slip into a flame war, no one is cherry picking or bullying. There is also no need to be defensive of one's theories and expectations, as I said already the Arctic can fend for itself.
I remind that more detailed discussions can be had in other threads. Do we have a La Nina or El Nino? There's an 2020 ENSO thread. Status of Arctic rivers can be discussed in detail in the "River ice and discharge" thread.
Effects on the melting season are of course welcome here. I recall 2016's "melting success" was explained in part by the monster El Nino that year, but as far as I can tell neither La Nina nor El Nino have a direct predictable effect on sea ice.
Regarding rivers, I wonder if there is near-delta water temp data (and anomaly) for the various Arctic rivers, besides discharge data.
As for thickness/volume/winter temps, this is an unresolved question. I once tried to correlate regional PIOMAS thickness/volume at certain times with resulting sea ice area at later times of the season for the same regions, and surprising could not find much predictability there. It doesn't mean there isn't a correlation, just that I could not find it with my limited analysis.
I remind that the DMI N of 80 is a misleading chart, due to its peculiar weighting method. Each latitude slice gets the same weight, despite 80-81 being 60 times larger than 89-90. This means the DMI measure is heavily skewed towards the North Pole, and does not tell the whole story regarding the High Arctic in general, some of which is down even to 70deg in the Beaufort-Chukchi-ESS region.  FDDs are another interesting approximation but with its own limitations. PIOMAS does a much more detailed job of calculating energy transfers and ice movements, but it's not the holy grail, it has limited resolution and suffers from inherent data limitations. Cryosat and SMOS measure the ice directly, but with their own known limitations. Snow thickness is the biggest unknown for all of these methods.
This year was colder near the Pole as shown by DMI, but also had a lot of ice movement from that location both to the FJL-Svalbard region and into the Fram. So this may have reduced or negated the advantage of low winter temps.
I think it is quite safe to say that Beaufort ice is indeed thicker this year, and is also starting its movement and breakup (with the resulting area loss) rather late compared to the leading years. This could indeed have a strong effect later on. The other volume anomaly near Svalbard seems doomed, at least as of a month ago and given what we know has happened since then. Of course, there is no telling what will happen from here on.
I think it is also safe to say that summer variability in the Arctic - albedo preconditioning, temperatures, cloudiness, export - is much higher than winter variability, partly because of the diminishing returns of cold temps on further ice thickening. Thus a strong melting weather like 2007 and 2012, or a weak season like 2013 and 2014, makes much more of a difference than the wintertime effects. To wit, both 2013 and 2017 started the year with unprecedented low volume, but ended up with much higher ice than expected.
So it is obvious the season is still side open, with the ice enjoying some strengths and some weaknesses. Of these, the early preconditioning and the Beaufort "fortress" seem to be very important factors, but which of them will prevail depends on June and July.

Note: the source of "my" thickness maps is the PIOMAS April update.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 08:56:24 AM »
The solar altitude idea is quite interesting as well as the projection of ice remaining 80-90 degrees to the north until perhaps 2040 as a consequence of low solar angle in the high latitude. I have been looking at this issue from perspective of sea ice stability and sea ice variabilities. I suspect as the mobility is increasing, sea ice is pushed increasingly to open areas as sea ice scattering increases.

To resolve half way the above problem, we at Sea Research Society, would be grateful if someone with skills on spreadsheets and data could put out a graph which shows the minimum-maximum sea ice area on each day. The simplest this type graph would be to show each date's highest-ever and lowest-ever value and the relation of current year's reading (its place) against these two boundaries. This is a very primitive and not too helpful -- except for public purposes to show current years position in media. For the general public having a set of multiple curves is confusing and newspaper space limits the size of graph in print. If a graph of highest-lowest ever is made you can fit it in 1-2 inch graph in magazine, for newspaper there are a bit more options but generally I believe most people find extra curves confusing. They don't have scientific value, just informative one as printing space is limited.

A more useful graph for ASIF community would be one that shows 5 / 10-year moving average of sea ice area variability. This could give us projections how broad range of outcomes of sea ice scattering and melt would be in future. Walt Meier just wrote a paper on sea ice movement increasing 10% per decade. Suggested chart, I suggest, could provide indication how sea ice area variability has evolved in time: this changing variability unfolds future in case the moving averages reveal a widening outcome spectrum. I suspect huge fanning ahead in possible sea ice extents.

Unfortunately we at SRS are not able to do it as our strength areas are in marine archeology and anthropology where we are world leaders in a deep diving. Our teaching programme for deep divers for oil rigs is just 5th accepted centre of learning in whole USA (including US Navy). Thus we have had archaeological excavations conducted under 180 metres below sea surface from sea bed pressurised cabin. This makes us the only archaeological organisation to excavate former Palaeolithic sites at Last Glacial Maximum at 120-130 metres below sea level. But we are hampered with funding to our work.

Palaeolithic archaeological work is important for understanding how fast sea level rose in the past:

There is a worrying amount of sites where pots and pans are left behind that suggests huge displacement events by collapsing ice sheets that are not at all in current geophysical model. This imply that they simply must be wrong. Valuable items are never left behind if people can collect them! I have been warning at UK Houses of Parliament of various failings and overconfidence of geophysicists. This must remain SRS' focus to warn about problem geophysical models do not capture.

The other similar problem is the pulverising effect which is lacking in Pleistocene sites when it shouldn't. If sea level changes slowly, the waves excavate soils and pulverise even strong buildings. This has not happened in the ice Ages, and many buildings over large areas remain immersed intact in water (unless a by-passing trawler net has caught and damaged them). From geophysical point of view I've captured and offered explanation to above in my Parliament evidence giving most recently: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

I have not been contributing graphs here in ASIF last four years. The last one of mine being corrections to US Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite when its Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) data began providing erratic passive microwave brightness temperatures (and its derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products). President Trump then stupidly if not disgustingly trashed US$ 400 million US Navy replacement satellite on ground with his typical arrogant style thus wasting taxpayers money (much like ensuring coronaviruses to populate the US and reduce human emissions).

To resolve issues discussed here, we need a new type of graph that shows the changing variability of spectrum of sea ice area and extent outcomes. I expect this rainbow be widening and I don't believe sea ice remaining safe until 2040. I understand that the idea of ice remaining was flouted as theoretical idea rather than expected outcome knowing the decreasing barriers as ocean opens and ice has more space to move around, ultimately the islands left as the last constraint.

On geoengineering I've lobbied bridge suspension cabling with lower able pontoons with compressed air to be installed Ellesmere Island - Hans Island - Greenland to reduce ice flow on the Nares Strait and also between the Queen Elizabeth islands to hold sea ice back for shipping lane. So far, I have not gathered great interest on neither idea but they could be used to control southward ice loss.

Based on our experience, we expect Arctic Ocean sea ice loss be catastrophic for North Greenland's ice sheet. Initially the lake-snow effect of the Arctic Ocean (studied by Maurice Ewing and William Donn in 1950's as a potential cause for the ice ages), could lift enough snow from the Arctic Ocean to reverse for a brief moment the sea level rise, then followed by castastrophic collapses due to meltwater build up under and within the ice sheet - suddenly then pushing ocean water table up, with people running from their homes and thus leaving household valuables behind. We can still find these artefacts in original contexts indicating that at least in the Indian Ocean people had no time but just run away.

We do not hear from these just because few people dig Palaeolithic as there is 'no gold and silver' and the work in ocean depths is costly + dangerous with each additional metre of water. In Indian Ocean sites strong currents and no visibility deters divers exploring sites, plus the high cost of this type of deep diving work. The fact we don't hear about it, doesn't mean that the problem does not exist.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Sea Research Society, Vice President
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
Quote from: Frivolousz21 on May 22, 2020, 04:05:48 AM
Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.

27
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: May 19, 2020, 12:43:42 AM »
Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 17, 2020, 04:21:41 AM »
Quote from: Glen Koehler on May 16, 2020, 02:56:49 PM
Quote from: binntho on May 16, 2020, 01:59:26 PM
<snip>  "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."

      Question 1:  Do those dark areas really indicate low concentration ice or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite? 

The "swiss cheese" is famous for it's holes, not for any "dark areas". So my comment was only regarding the holes popping up in the ice all around the perifery, much more so than usual at this time of year, as per my feeble and increasingly decrepit memory. And definitely significantly more than 2019 as can be readily seen.

The "dark areas" are of course also much more prominent than usual, or so we seem to think, but I think I've learned the lesson some time ago not to take those too literally. Althogh one does wonder if some sort of Bluecheesefication is underway as well?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 16, 2020, 10:06:24 PM »
Quote from: uniquorn on May 16, 2020, 10:05:05 PM
Quote from: Frivolousz21 on May 16, 2020, 09:21:56 PM
But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.
Just an amazing start to this melt season
Friv, please divulge what is coming from the NA side. Atmo is not my strong point
The hammer is being dropped on snowcover. It looks like there is also a lot of warmth in the NW of the continent, but this could be curtains for the remaining extant snow extent over Quebec / Nunavut. When that goes, there is going to be no barrier between continental airmasses and the CAA / Greenland, besides the ice in Hudson Bay, which is now losing albedo fairly quickly.

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:12:48 AM »
Quote
Quote from: bbr2315 on May 15, 2020, 05:20:38 PM
Meanwhile in NY State we have a fascist Governor who has once again extended lockdown despite new cases and deaths etc plunging to near 0.

Fascists govern by decree, as do all dictators (& would-be dictators).

I have seen & listened to Gov Cuomo on CNN. Impressive as he has tried to tell his people exactly what's going on and why he has taken the actions he is taking.  It is obvious he is working with people, not over them.

If he is a dictator we need a few more like him.


31
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: May 15, 2020, 09:33:35 PM »
Middle school humor, it was for the art-class in home schooling.
The original version is in Luxembourgish.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 15, 2020, 11:46:10 AM »
Quote from: Freegrass on May 15, 2020, 12:58:02 AM
It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...
My take is that the dipole, high mslp over practically the whole basins area has persisted for long enough to force water out of Fram. The easiest fraction to move is the layer beneath that held still by the ice keels but that upper layer with the ice also seems to be moving generally towards Fram. The losses will be exaggerated by tidal forcings meaning that excess has to be replaced from somewhere so Atlantic waters deep through Fram and via Barents into St.Anna>Laptev and Pacific waters via Bering.
Some of the papers/presentations recently linked by Nukefix are relevant to this well worth the time.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 01:23:21 PM »
Quote from: Phoenix on May 11, 2020, 01:08:18 PM
Surface temps N of 80N stay close to zero because they are far away from the big heated rocks of Siberia and NA. That's why the ice remains there at the September minimum. Transporting enough heat over long distance to the surface of the CAB ice is not a trivial matter.

Transporting air from the south is not the only way the pole can warm up. High pressure areas, like the one being forecast now, causes sinking air, and air warms as it sinks. Which also increases the relevance of the 850 hPA air temperature, because that air is moving downwards toward the surface.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 10, 2020, 09:52:03 PM »
Quote from: pearscot on May 10, 2020, 09:24:32 PM
Has transport out of the Fram been higher than normal this year or lately? That's one part of the arctic I know little about.

It has had both fast and slow phases. Wipneus has an excellent chart for that in the PIOMAS thread.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 01:13:18 AM »
Quote
Please note, i am not asking to explain every little detail in this topic. I ask to use non-contradicting terms. Like, instead of "melt ponds confuse sensors" - say, for example, "technology limitations disallow reliable total Arctic ice volume measurement after mid-April based on those sensors". Like, instead of "SMOS stopped" say "SMOS measurements stop being used for calculating total ice volume mid-spring due to growing measurement errors which currently we're unable to remove". Etc.

If we'd be failing to avoid "contradicting per common sense of a non-scientist" statements here - even when such contradictions are in error de-facto - then what exactly this topic is for?
Thank you for the better description of SMOS cutoff for Cryosat, and other SMOS limitations. This is what should have been posted in the first place if you find the original poster was not accurate enough. Clarify, explain, bring more info, make better wording. And do not hint the cutoff is to hide something or that somebody was lying because they used inaccurate terminology.

Back to what this topic is for - bringing information, data, analysis and commentary about the Arctic sea ice melting season that is just beginning in earnest.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 08, 2020, 04:49:42 AM »
Quote from: Neven on May 06, 2020, 10:42:41 PM
And another very interesting video from the same source, with a Nobel prize winning biologist
Michael Levitt, right, that's the same brilliant mind who preached that lockdown was a mistake and predicted just 7 weeks ago that Israel won't see more than 10 deaths even without restrictions, and that Italy with 2500 deaths was halfway through the disease. Well Israel now at 240 after a severe lockdown and Italy at nearly 30k and that's just the official count. I guess there's better brainwashing to be had than by watching this self-congratulating interview.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/nobel-laureate-israel-will-have-no-more-than-ten-coronavirus-deaths-621407

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 10:13:00 AM »
Quote from: Neven on May 06, 2020, 09:59:18 AM
Must. Find. Something. That. Affects. The. Children. Fear. And. Guilt. Fear. And. Guilt.

The fear is only in your mind. We've always known there was a very small number of cases of children who can be in danger of C19. This gives us a sample of how it may look like. Information like this, however scary, may help inform clinicians who will start seeing cases more frequently in places that let the diseases progress to the level the UK did.

This is need to know information.

However, it is important that caveats are made that this is very rare. It will only become more common in places that let it run wild and only to clinicians.

Because masks are scary and uncomfortable, some countries will let some children bear this. They are not "first world".

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 27, 2020, 06:09:42 PM »
Quote from: Neven on April 27, 2020, 05:57:41 PM
Is it the novelty aspect that is the main reason that SARS-CoV-2 has a more severe impact than influenza?
In other words: Would influenza have an even larger impact if it were novel?
No. SARS-CoV-2 is 10-20 times more lethal than influenza, and requires maybe 20-50 times more hospitalizations, for the same number of true cases.
Yes. Novelty of an influenza strain certainly enhances its severity.

BTW Neven, do you think it was a mistake (or even a political conspiracy or whatever) to implement a lockdown in Italy? In Spain? The UK? New York City? Or do you think these lockdowns were scientifically and socially justified?

39
Consequences / Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
« on: April 25, 2020, 05:12:05 AM »
Quote from: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2020, 04:00:51 AM
Idaho farmer giving away potato crop due to lack of demand


There is something illogical about there all of a sudden being excess potatoes or milk etc. Presumably the net amount of food that people consume has not declined. So why the excess? Could it be that people are all cooking at home instead of eating out and that this is much more efficient and much less wasteful?

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 25, 2020, 12:06:58 AM »




41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 24, 2020, 04:33:18 PM »
Full of sarcasm. "natures way of culling our population". pfft. This was and still is completely preventable.

Honestly, there is very little I can say that will not be offensive. Those who know what is wrong with that line of thinking already know.  "Social Darwinism" is about as mild as I can put it. And saying it that way is a disservice to humanity and honor. Saying it the way it should be said gets one banned.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 22, 2020, 03:58:03 PM »
Kotelny Island reached +1.2°С today. Previous record of April was +0.3°С in 1967.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 20, 2020, 12:32:41 PM »
Quote from: Hefaistos on April 20, 2020, 12:07:57 PM
New research on C19 in the Stockholm region,

by professor of Mathematical Biostatistics at Stockholm University Tom Britton

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066050v1

Bottom line, he estimates that R0 is only about 1.7 and that between 33% and 50% of people in Stockholm have had COVID-19.

If this and similar reports (like the study on Santa Clara in CA) are even partly correct, it paints a radically different picture. 

These research results would imply that the extreme social distancing in place in most parts of the world is an over-reaction.  Or at least, that a quick return to somewhat normal economic activity is an imperative which should not result in significantly bad medical outcomes.
Of course without compromising the old and sick that are most at risk, they have to remain in lock-down for another year or so.

That's an R0 similar or slightly greater than flu.
With the difference that a 10% don't end up in ICU from two to, how many, ~10 weeks?, with respiration failure, renal failure, heart failure, if not death.

A back to 'normal' after contagions are under control, with extreme measures (masks, hygiene, distancing, massive teleworking, no flight unless very necessary) and without schools, bars, gyms of course is desirable. Say bye to normal summer.

People here should be so happy that oil is absolutely crushed due to extremely low demand. Now let's face the consequences and transition to a less consumerist world.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 20, 2020, 10:35:19 AM »
April 14-19.

2019.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 19, 2020, 10:42:47 PM »
Ice growth rates are not high enough to freeze all the way to the bottom. During a season new ice can reach maybe 2m, the thicker the ice the slower the growth. But ice floes being stood sideways due to pressure from the pack (and counterforce from the shore) can reach the bottom.

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 18, 2020, 08:55:30 PM »
Thanks again to vox_mundi for his excellent coverage work on covid-19, and to Sam for being a strong voice of reason and compassion.

Compassion is not an important word in an Arctic demise-centered Forum, but it is an important word for humanity, if you believe on it.

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 08:25:27 PM »
Quote from: Neven on April 16, 2020, 04:48:00 PM
Quote from: bluice on April 16, 2020, 03:14:06 PM
The psychological effect of this disease is much more dangerous than the disease itself.

Neven,

This is a basic and common error. Our society is conditioned to think in terms that put commerce as primary. It isn’t. It is essential. It is not primary.

The psychological effects of this disease are terrible. The impacts of those on commerce are great. More impactful is the disease itself.  It is not in any way the messaging or narrative that is the problem. That places commerce as the priority to resolve the crisis.

To resolve the crisis requires first understanding that the disease spread is itself primary. It leads. It governs all that happens. The impacts of the disease on psychology are secondary AND important.

The impacts on commerce are tertiary. And their impacts on employment, income, work, social life ... are feedbacks from that. They are all vitally important. But they are tertiary.

Focusing on those focuses on the wrong problem.

The narrative in media is quaternary, not even tertiary. But it is for most people the first thing they see. And between the primacy of that flow of information and the vital importance of economics to day to day survival, it is not in the least surprising to find people believing that to be most important and hence primary. It still isn’t. It also easily lends itself to memes, and to political campaigns focused on those aspects. That still does not make it primary.

The disease and its progression are and remain primary. They drive everything else.

Solving the crisis requires solving the disease spread. Solving the crisis requires focusing on that primary problem.

And there two major aspects. First is the disease itself. Treatments, drugs, herbs, vaccines and such are the primary weapons there. Second is the spread of the disease. That is dominated by human behavior. There is as yet no suggestion even of an animal or insect vector playing any role. Stopping human to human spread is the major control. That then goes to isolation through many means, blocking transmission with masks, sanitizers, hand washing, and behavioral interventions are the major tools.

This virus is as contagious as chicken pox. That is hugely contagious. Controlling it requires actions commensurate with that. And that means lockdown.

If - and this is a huge if - we could simultaneously stop everyone from moving around for five to six weeks, we would likely end the virus. Five to six weeks in very small groups would cause the disease to run its course and die out. Even a few somewhat larger groups, or limited movement of essential people provide pathways for the virus to continue.

And even a single contagion chain is enough that when that isolation is lifted - the virus resumes its rampage. The vast majority of people don’t have five to six weeks of food and essential supplies on hand. Medical and other emergencies still happen.

So, five to six weeks isn’t enough. It requires longer - a lot longer.

That then endangers the existence of small companies. It depletes individual resources or strains them to the breaking point. Accordingly, massive societal sharing (financial bailouts being one such) become essential.

But these are not one time things. They have to last as long as the contagion persists - requiring isolation and shutdown.

And how long that lasts is decided by how tightly we are willing to lock ourselves down (all of us), and by how effective we are at it.

If we do this badly, or even moderately well. The period required is extended indefinitely. And that then drives people bonkers psychologically which causes controls to fail.

But failure means ultimately infecting about 90% of the population. And that means killing circa 3-9+% of the population in the first wave. And if this virus only provides two year immunity as it appears to, it means killing something like 2-6% in a second wave, and 1-5% in a third wave etc...  Each wave depletes the society of older and vulnerable people, presumably lessening the impact of each wave. But over a decade, this likely sums to 12-15% of the population dying, unless massive controls are put in place, or successful treatments or vaccines are developed. That then might limit the dying to 4% over the decade.

However, even a single adverse mutation in all those quadrillions of quadrillion+ copies of the virus throws all of this analysis out. Now we deal with a more lethal disease that spreads faster, and kills more and different people. It perhaps then targets the young, or young adults, or those in middle age.

In time, that too dies out. Extremely lethal viruses are self limiting. They destroy the population in the process.

Focusing on putting business recovery as primary assures that the disease spreads farther and faster and that it kills more people. That raises the decades death toll substantially. AND it destroys more businesses. Focusing on saving business and commerce as primary kills business and commerce.

The problem is not the narrative about the virus. The problem is and remains the virus.

Sam


48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 09:39:16 PM »
Quote from: TerryM on April 14, 2020, 06:36:25 PM
Quote from: kassy on April 14, 2020, 05:51:51 PM
<snipped>
122 new death lower then 234 last week but this includes the easter effect.
<snipped>
Getting accurate fatality counts on easter weekend has proven difficult for milenia. ::)
Terry

Terry I appreciated your "joke" but I think it went over the heads of all the scientific people here ;)

49
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: April 14, 2020, 11:09:56 AM »
Quote from: Archimid on April 14, 2020, 09:13:44 AM
That's an even better solution. Now you can post and debate without having the authority of those 5 green lines exerting undue influence over others. You can still banish us from ASIF existence on a whim.
A. Authority is in the eye of the beholder. Those green things mean nothing, this is a scientific forum and the science is what dictates right and wrong. Just ignore this imaginary "rank".
B. Moderators cannot banish you, only Neven can do that, and he doesn't do that on whims anyway.

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2020, 09:11:27 PM »
Quote from: Archimid on April 13, 2020, 07:30:50 PM
Stop this El Cid. I instinctively "liked" your post.

it's the beginning of a beautiful friendship :-* ;D

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