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Messages - be cause

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 23, 2021, 02:58:43 PM »


British scientists already had concluded that the variant, known as B.1.1.7, spread between 30%-70% faster than the previous dominant coronavirus strain in the U.K. 


That range is expanding downwards. I've yet to see a robust analysis showing its changed, but its hard to explain how low R is under lockdown with B.1.1.7 dominant unless its at or below the lower end of that range. 50-70% was pretty robust for December, and it still looks pretty robust for Denmark, but I haven't seen a decent analysis of UK data in January that says anything other than the data has got messier.

Possibly the main advantage B.1.1.7 has is reducing or reversing the advantage adult spreaders have over children so closing the schools has drastically reduced its relevance. Thats the hypothesis I'm looking to disprove at the moment. I think greater mobility than April is roughly balanced by greater immunity from infection than April, but same R as April needs something that affects B.1.1.7 in particular.

2
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:27:24 PM »
Amanda Gorman was AWESOME!!!! 🙂


3
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 06:35:25 PM »
Dear Tom,
You wrote:
'be cause & gerontocrat:
I notice that the most cogent arguments you can make against my linked article are, basically, to foam at the mouth
.'
While it is true that you have engendered a certain amount of gnashing of teeth and foaming at mouths, the reasons do not include acknowledgement and frustration by the devastating strength of your argument.
Indeed, quite the opposite.
I draw to your attention the concept of Logical Fallacies, linked here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
In the interests of saving time, I direct you to the fallacy of 'False Equivalence:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence

Equating BLM protests against extra judicial killings of an identified group with a mass insurrection based on anger against a legal election is an example of a false equivalency.

It is an easy trap to fall into, one that you are regularly ensnared by, but the moderators of this forum have wisely requested we do not take it up with you.

Regards,
Sebastian

4
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: January 10, 2021, 01:46:34 AM »
John.....
You make a wild ass guess then make some sort of point based on said wild ass guess.
And you wonder why I don't take your points seriously.

And given you have preconceived ideas, all you needed to do from that point was find information to back up your own thinking.

Fauci lied about some things. What you are not taking into consideration about those lies is the context he was doing it in. Namely, Trump wanted the entire thing ignored and Fauci wouldn't do that. Fauci wanted to remain in the public eye to try to get as much information out as possible without being fired. This is a context that needs to be considered when looking at why he lied. Also, he remained (for the most part) within the ranges stipulated, he just shifted the range he talked about upwards when he felt the public and Trump could deal with it.
Clearly it failed given the current situation.

I don't care about Dore's politics, he is not providing a clear picture of events, or he cant see them, or he simply wants to make a video that people will watch and create a public discussion so he can get paid. He lacks context in this case.

Just because I am from Australia, doesn't mean I cant care about other places around the world. Fauci matters in the US, and the discussion was started by you and I replied. I saw a lack of context in the video that you provided as some sort of evidence about something.
This is an international forum, it talks a lot about the US.
If you don't understand that people can care about other countries, maybe that is a reflection  that the US citizen really doesn't care much about anything outside of the USA. Most of the rest of the world actually know a lot more about other countries than your average run of the mill US citizen. So, I can actually care about the US while living in Australia.

And yes, Australia does have their own experts, and our politicians (for the most part) listen to them. Have you looked at the differences in the Covid results between each country and wondered why they are so radically different? Maybe the US should look at how Australia is doing it and learn a few things.... except they are so caught up in their political bullshit that acting based on science is pretty much impossible.
Let the US machine keep working for the benefit of those with money and power, what are a few hundred thousand extra deaths this year to them so long as the capitalistic machine keeps working for their benefit.

5
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 09, 2021, 10:02:43 PM »
Yep kassy, if you want to talk solutions to global warming you can't avoid politics.

But some political issues have no impact on GW, so those are perhaps best left out.

The website owner(s) get to make the rules, at any rate. Like 'em or lump 'em. There's tons of other places around teh interwebz to bicker over these things.

Personally, I like how things are done here, better than most, and I'm extremely grateful for the "walled garden" that is the Cryosphere sub-section.

6
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 09, 2021, 09:21:30 PM »

7
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: January 08, 2021, 09:11:34 PM »
I refuse to click such sites - but taking a peek on the Internet, I think he's wrong. Murders are up because of rising social anger, thanks to the Orange Idiot on the one hand and the Covid crisis on the other hand. Masks are annoying and uncomfortable but do not lead to increased murders, or else the East Asians would have murdered themselves to death already.

8
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 04, 2021, 11:31:11 PM »

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2021, 12:29:43 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more on 2020

2020 had the lowest average daily sesa ice extent in the satellite record.

The simple daily average daily sea ice extent for the year was 9.674 million km2.
This was 42k less than in 2016, and 285k less than in 2012.

Put in another way, in 2020 there was on average 42k less ice and 42 k more open water for every day of the year than in any other year.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 02, 2021, 08:49:55 AM »
The local Health Dept. phoned about an hour ago giving us (wife and me) appointments to receive our first Moderna vaccination shot, tomorrow mid-day.
:)

The nurse, working at 8 pm on New Year's Day, chuckled when I answered the phone (not knowing who it was) with a cheery "Happy New Year!"

Forecast is for rain all day, maybe some lightning, so appointments could get cancelled...
 :-\

Didn't know that rain or lightning made vaccination impossible. In my country they usually administer it indoors
 :):):)

11
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 01, 2021, 04:21:50 PM »
kassy, you may not understand this but blumenkraft is a friend of mine. Yes, abstract as all of you are. Still, I will act on my well-developed-but-not-perfect senses and do the right thing. Hell, what is this about kassy? I repeat my question; Do you have a heart?


edit: typo

12
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 30, 2020, 12:01:53 AM »



13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 24, 2020, 03:46:15 AM »
It appears that some people think Australia is in permanent lockdown with a Govt keeping us under firm control.

Truth is this.... for 4 months one city was in lockdown for about four months. It was not fun, people complained, but we did what was needed. It worked. Melbourne has had zero community transmissions for 55 days in a row and 1 case that came into Melbourne from the cluster in Sydney because the person drove here a few days ago.

The only restrictions we have now are wearing a mask while doing things like supermarket shopping. For the most part, our economy is almost fully open and recovering.

Sydney has targeted lockdowns because of its cluster. It is hard and fast, it will almost certainly work, and within the coming week or two, Sydney will be mostly fully open as well.

This is hardly a dictator state or country, in fact, we are almost back to normal and nobody is dying from Covid and the cases are very, very low.

Not bad for 4 months of misery.

Compared to places likes the US, where Trump bloody mindedly did everything he could to let it rip through, with thousands of deaths per day, an economy that is struggling, job loses, hunger increasing, people living in unstable housing due to rent non payment and a hospital system that is all but collapsed and getting worse, I pick the four months of lockdown every single time.

For the people who think Covid isnt much of a thing, a common cold, or no worse than the flu, if any of those people can provide any evidence of any kind that shows them doing what Covid is doing right now, please present the evidence for us to see. Any information at all will do.

Shit, give any information from the US only... find the worst flu season in the last 100 years and compare it to what is happening in the US right now.
You can even present finding from the 1914 flu if you want as that is the closest you will probably come to Covid.

Melbourne fought hard to remove the virus. Lockdowns are needed, so are masks, testing, tracing and strong political leadership. But it was temporary and no longer in place.
And here is the funny thing, the people in Melbourne are prepared to do it all again should it be required. Most people are aware that when our winter comes around next year we may well have to do it again, and that is okay with most people here because the results show that it is worth it.

I just wanted that to be clearly stated.

I would like to see evidence of a worse disease than Covid to see what pops up.... something that has gone global and has done what Coivd is doing.
MERS and SARS might appear as counters to this, but given MERS and SARS were relatively easy to beat, and isn't global, it isn't really a fair comparison. Ebola isn't either. All three of those diseases could have gotten a lot worse and still been brought into containment as they are today because they only spread with symptoms.

So, please, present the findings of how the flu has done what Covid has done to health care systems globally, show the real number deaths, the real organ damages, lets compare them properly.

If it can be shown that Covid is, in fact, no worse than the flu, then I will change my mind. Until then, if you think Covid is no worse than the flu, either front up with researched evidence or stop saying it.

Rant over.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 20, 2020, 03:47:50 PM »
First interesting news of the freezing season.

JAXA, December 18, 2020

Extent: 11,562444 km2
Gain of 144,467 km2

5th lowest in the satellite record. Could only last a day. Could move down to 6th.

2016:  11,295,762 km2
2017:  11,546,507 km2
2019:  11,553,665 km2
2010:  11,548,406 km2
2020:  11,562,444 km2
2018:  11,564,084 km2

<FTB, haven't seen you in a while, it seems tendency for cherrypicking has remained. Am approving this post on a one-time basis but will not tolerate on an ongoing basis. O>

Aluminium’s animation shows that the prevailing winds bringing coldness from Alaska and inducing very strong ice drift over the Chukchi sea explain the recent increases in extent (mostly)

The guys at MOSAIC thread are documenting what’s going on with the anticyclonic drift basin-wide very nicely. Go have a look.

Also the strong high pressure dome has displaced cold air to the periphery in particular to Kara, that was late in refreeze and is quickly picking up.

If you find this event the first interesting news from the freezing season, you have not been following or you are quite ill intentioned as oren suggests.

15
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: December 09, 2020, 04:04:16 PM »


@realDonaldTrump is a petulant child with 70 million idiots behind him that all believe in the power to walk on water.

Reality (science) is not for religious nutcases!

America is getting destroyed by religious extremism and the complete void of reason and believe in science.


He is not religious at all but pretends to be to reach out to those guys to vote for him.

This doesn't take anything away from what you said, just added an important detail as to he being religious. ( a true believer )

Most so called religious people got stuck in the old testamont and are far away from being christian in the meaning of being forgiveful, tolerant and love to love you fellow humans like themeselves.

Most religious people are cherry picking from their appropriate guides (Bible, Quran etc.) To justify their evil doings.
Even some real believers tend to get nasty in the name of god if things or someone doesn't function their way.

In short, he is a pharisee at best and certainly a hypocrite which are kind of synonyms.

16
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 09, 2020, 10:55:51 AM »
Excellent summary of the mad saga of Brexit so far: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/08/codpieces-zeppelins-best-brexit

"David Cameron’s referendum on EU membership was intended to “settle the issue for a generation”. Since then, Britain has been trapped in a midsummer night’s scream that has lasted four and a half years, and has not technically actually even begun. We must hope the way to the sunlit uplands is via shit creek – because that’s certainly the direction we took. Still, as we sit and wait for deal or no deal, let’s take a look at Brexit’s best bits.

At one point, Michael Howard threatened war with Spain. On another occasion, a Ukip leader wrote to the Queen to inform her she had committed treason when she signed the Maastricht treaty. A thinktank suggested the Irish border issue could be resolved with zeppelins – the only problem being, they were insanely expensive and entirely weather-dependent. During one of the “meaningful votes” – sorry, no idea – an MP intoned to parliament: “This is a turd of a deal, which has now been taken away and polished, and is now a polished turd. But it might be the best turd that we’ve got.”

Preposterous people became a thing. Throbbing forehead vein Mark Francois compared a mild letter from the Airbus CEO with Rommel’s Atlantic wall defences. Steve Baker uttered the words: “Everybody knows I’m Brexit hardman Steve Baker.” Boris Johnson uttered the words “Fuck business.”

It was announced that a “major Hollywood studio” was turning Arron Banks’s Bad Boys of Brexit book into a $60m, six-part TV drama, which would have made it one of the most expensive shows then on TV. Kevin Spacey was tipped to play Farage. (Probably worth going back to him now.)
...
"

Satire is dead.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 07, 2020, 02:39:49 AM »
It's kinda sad. Neven would never accept someone posting a youtube of some random scientist from a field not related to climate who down played that crisis... of evidence of, well, anything--except what we already know: even 'scientists' can be idiots, especially when they start pontificating about stuff outside of their field. The guys a diet specialist, and that field barely qualifies as science, anyway.

Bring me the considered judgment of epidemiologist, and ideally organizations of epidemiologists, who say the thing this nitwit is saying, and then maybe I'll start to listen.

Why do some people's standards of evidence get thrown out the window, when they know form experience with climate denial that the opinions of any one random dude, even one with some random advanced degree, is basically worthless, especially when it so flagrantly goes against the considered judgment of people who actually know what they're talking about, against the overwhelming evidence, and against, well, just ... the obvious

:::::::::::

Meanwhile, Giuliani has just been admitted to the hospital with covid (and Barr, by the way, is reportedly considering resigning).

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 06, 2020, 06:30:04 PM »





19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 05:07:04 AM »
A good article about the challenges the Victorian Govt, Australia, had during the second wave in Melbourne.

In essence, the right wing Murdoch media attacked him throughout the event, lied, made false claims and wanted the economy opened up the entire time.

Worth a read.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/11/27/how-dictator-dan-defied-a-dangerous-murdoch-media-and-led-australia-to-covid-victory/

20
The rest / Re: When will post-pandemic normalcy return?
« on: November 27, 2020, 08:14:29 AM »
Normal for whom?
Here in NZ it is normal. Catching Covid is not a risk for almost all of us  here .
The only difference from  normal life ?
We don't have tens of thousands of tourists cluttering up the place.
But.
Kiwis usually spend  as much being tourists overseas as tourists bring into our economy so that hardly matters.

Today I even confirmed  my attendance  at the usual yearly social gatherings over Christmas for the extended family's on both sides ... no problems, no issues, no risks.
I will spare a though for all you poor buggers living is less well run country's as I crack a cold one and burn dead animal bits  on the BBQ as we traditionally do for the seasons celebrations in NZ.

21
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 24, 2020, 05:36:35 AM »
Hello, on November 20th an ice storm, maybe the same one mentioned above hit Changchun city, Jilin Province, China (were I am) and much of northern china.  There were of branches of trees everywhere broken off with the weight of the ice and the wind.  This was followed by quite heavy snow.  It has been sunny for several days now.

I can tell you travelling to work on the bus (the light rail did not work) took hours.  I have no idea how the bus drivers managed to drive on the ice and snow covered roads that were lined with broken trees.

22
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 22, 2020, 12:40:14 PM »
An unusual ice storm occurred in Vladivostok on Nov. 20. Massive layer of ice was deposited on all surfaces, with severe damage to trees and wires. Most of trees are severely damaged, and the ground is covered with broken off branches.

Parts of city still have no electricity, water and heating. Two high voltage transmission line towers collapsed under the added weight of ice, causing blackout in part of city. It's still unknown when the power will be restored.

A separate big concern is for birds who lost access to seeds, an important food source this season.




Ice that formed on the wires:


More photos at: http://kirr.homeunix.org/nature/2020-11-20-Vladivostok-Ice-Storm/.

I've no idea if such events are getting more frequent or more severe with the changing climate.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 17, 2020, 01:59:03 PM »
A small visual analysis of possible years for state change using Wipneus' piomas modeled ice thickness (Zhang and Rothrock 2003). I think there are data and charts that show roughly the same thing though limiting the observed area to that of the thickest remaining ice near the september minimum may be instructive.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:17:34 AM »
Here's the September anomaly map from Climate Reanalyzer.  I'll be interested to see Octobers when it turns up, and Nov. after that to see if my hunch is borne out.

wait no more:

25
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: November 12, 2020, 03:45:58 PM »
I get the feeling b.c. meant it cynically, because the Orange Idiot is gonna steal another term so there will not even be a Biden's presidency.  The "coup de twat".

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 06, 2020, 11:13:13 PM »
Kassy, You can’t simply silo every thought and make issues clearer. Politics and Covid are very much intertwined here in the U.S. and more so in Europe as things drag along.  Covid has already been pulled from the list of recent posts on the forum so you need to have enough interest to search “consequences” to read up on the latest. So too most political threads. What does it matter if people commingle them?

27
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 06, 2020, 07:20:09 PM »
Trouble is, even if he loses as now seems very likely, that fucker will be entitled to and demand to be addressed as President to his dying day.

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2020, 10:12:33 AM »
Good morning.

This was posted by Alexander555 in the COVID-19 thread:
(bolding by me)
"We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed[sic]"

This was allowed to stand . . . . . . .
But I cannot stand it being allowed to stand as someone who has posted in the George Floyd thread and stands firmly with the oppressed. I'd thought that I was not alone.

If this still stands tomorrow, I'll make a stand and will peacefully protest by not participating for a while. If I can find the motivation again.

kassy I believe that you are the moderator of the COVID-19 thread. Your level of morality and justice shines through in your moderating acts. I find it shocking that you think that the quoted sentence is okay on this forum. In this way YOU select the forummembers. The moaners and flames stay and the silent good ones leave. This has nothing to do with my appreciation of the other efforts you put in as moderator and contributor. I don't think that you're bad as a person, nothing like that is intended.

See how a couple of emotionally- and personality-challenged members are taking up so much of your time (and ours) and effort and lower the general tone, readbility and quality of the forum by doing that. When someone is on a third try, I would be much harder on them and not allow any transgressions or it is into the corner again. Why not ask Neven for help with moderating issues? He's experienced here and you could learn from him.

Without naming them as trolls specifically (but I believe they are, difficult to explain here), their behaviour is very succesfull in destabilising the site and dragging the fiends-feelings down; invoking emotions and people taking sides and more.

I'm still disgusted by Alexander's post.

29
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:48:36 AM »
^ Then we can start the American Civil War II thread  ::)

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 04:46:29 PM »
<snip> The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification,
     My understanding is that Arctic amplification is primarily due to less ice Extent --> albedo decline --> more sunlight energy absorption by dark open water --> warmer water --> more ice melt --> less ice Extent.  With very little sunlight reaching the Arctic at this time of year, how is it that fall is "peak Arctic amplification"? 
 
     I suppose more open water also creates more moisture in the air and thus a thicker insulating blanket to retain heat emitted by the open water, thus another reinforcing feedback.  But albedo change seems to be the most important forcing change caused by Arctic warming, and that change in net forcing should decline to near nothing in the fall.  So I don't understand how fall could be peak amplification unless "amplification" is a noun that refers to the observable impacts, not as a verb that describes additional forcing contributions.

     Thanks to Oren for "moderating."  I'm one of the 1783 ASIF members with no training in Arctic science or climatology.  I come here to learn and see what's happening in what is arguably the most consequential observable event in human history - the degradation of the Arctic sea ice.  I do work with weather and crop pests, and one of these days I suppose I could learn how to work with netCDF files, but it will never happen.  I have a colleague who does that.  But he doesn't know much about managing insects and diseases that attack crops.  So we each do our part.  We can't each do everything.  It's better if I let him handle the netCDF programming so I can focus on keeping up with the biological developments from my reading of the relevant information from about 1% up to maybe 2%. 

     The world is a complicated place.  It's great that we have access to so much information.  But it is also overwhelming, so we have to pick our spots.  Adding buoy analysis is not the right move for me or for bettering the world.  Scolding me about it is not going to change that. 

     I wish we had 1.7 billion people in the ASIF watching and worrying about the Arctic, whether or not they ever post any data analysis.  ASIF plays an important role in raising awareness, which is a necessary prerequisite for solutions.  I know at least one prominent journalist aware of the ASIF, and I'm sure there are many others.  I hope ASIF remains an open conversation that welcomes all and brings attention to the climate crisis. 
     
     And it IS a crisis even though for political purposes it seems to move too slow to meet that definition.  The faster that train rolls the less we can do about it.  It's already moving, and 30 more years of acceleration is already baked into the cake. It's like Dr. Fauci said about COVID-19, if you think you are here (low on the curve), you are really here (farther along and higher on the curve).  So you have to act accordingly.  Our house is on fire.  We need to support each other in whatever capacity we each have to attack the problem, not each other.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 11:29:36 AM »
Our non-stop, never-data climate change minimizer!

How do you know it's an accurate prediction of the future if there is no supporting data (given the future isn't here yet)?

Mixed layer enthalpy speculation .. do you even know where the data for that is located? It takes less than a minute to look at it. It's at an all-time record high for the date for the Siberian side.

The Laptev won't be next: buoy surface temperatures in Laptev are still far from freezing, as are SSTfnd. Five-day temperature at 80º 140º are forecast moderate; ice pack edge is still stalled on AMSR2_AWI. Next: Chukchi-Beaufort northern edge, Wrangel arm towards ESS per OsiSaf trend, historical patterns, GFS weather forecast. Then Laptev. Chukchi by Bering Strait last (Dec/Jan).

32
The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: October 30, 2020, 10:51:07 AM »
I clicked 12-16% yesterday. That's more than the polls - but the long early voting lines suggest a huge disproportionate voter turnout on the Biden side. First I thought I might be too optimistic and the early voter lines were overhyped, but now here is this:

Quote
Texas Leads Nation In Early Voting At 8.5 Million Cast – 94% Of 2016 Turnout
[...]
Texas trails only California in total votes cast by 30,000 – though California has over 10 million more people – but leads the nation in percent of 2016 turnout, ahead of Hawaii at 87%, Montana at 86%, New Mexico at 83% and Georgia at 82%.
[...]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/29/texas-leads-nation-in-early-voting-at-85-million-cast--94-of-2016-turnout/

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 28, 2020, 06:47:10 PM »
Herd immunity is not only evil, but also ridiculous.
Show me one virus of the class coronaviridae where we have developed herd immunity against.

34
winter will have forgotten it's visit to the states by election day ...

In the lower 48 snow starts to melt tomorrow and Nov 3rd looks like a really pleasant day

35
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: October 22, 2020, 10:08:00 AM »
Sorry I don't eat rats, mice,  possums, or magpies.
I kill the many invasive species that infest NZ and will continue to do so  in the name of the ecology of my country. If we don't cull such animals NZ will lose many of the unique  species found here.

New Zealand  has an official policy to eliminate introduced Predator mammalian and marsupial species.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predator_Free_2050


 Your view of nature is divorced from the hash reality of the real world.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 21, 2020, 06:02:30 AM »
I agree. Late freezing season is a definitive event in the future year. Those only focus on the year maximum and minimum sea ice extent value cannot see the whole thing.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2020, 11:01:22 AM »
Thank you for the stimulating discussion points everyone. A-team, its good to see you post in these threads, I follow you closely on the MOSAIC thread.

Reminds me of an article I wrote last year for my uni's student mag. I struggled to pitch it to a correct level and tie it up in so few words, but they really liked it and put it in their print edition too.

https://the-gist.org/2019/10/the-problem-with-arctic-amplification/


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2020, 08:16:36 PM »
CMEMS sea ice forecast shows almost no growth over the next week. Should it come off, record lows, and by huge margins, should be expected soon.

Below is a comparison between 2012 and 2020, with AMSR2 data to the 7th for 2020, and CMEMS for 8th to 14th.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2020, 12:48:31 AM »
There is still a massive amount of oceanic heat
Agreed.
amsr2, awi dev v103 overlaid onto mercator 0m ocean temperature, sep4-oct5

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:46:10 AM »
September 27 - October 1.

2019.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 29, 2020, 01:00:54 AM »
This is quite creative use of the last week before heading for port, in some ways more interesting than just studying a single possibly unrepresentative floe. The Polarstern can do CTD casts, ice thickness, and water temperature while on the move.

With periodic stops on the the 86º transect, the various teams can go out and take cores, water samples and weather parameters in the boundary layer and above. The new twist is going back and forth across the marginal ice zone (ice edge) to study conditions allowing new ice formation (which as usual takes place laterally along the periphery of the existing ice side.

The "position buoys" that coordinate with the Polar5/6 overflight campaign haven't been mentioned before. Normally, the teams out on the ice try to coordinate with the time of the overflight but that could not happen this year as access to the base airport in Svalbard only became available at the last moment (because of virus).

Update 1: 81.6  11.6 20-09-29 14:00  14m/s -2.9ºC. The ship has left the ice edge for good and is heading down the Fram to study the position buoy floes before heading to the destination fjord in Svalbard. FOMO is showing engine room pictures again. The wind up the Strait is strong but there is no ice above it to be imported.

Update 1: 81.7 1.6 20-09-30  09:00 12m/s -5.7ºC. The PS is in the middle of the Fram west of Svalbard doing another 24 hour constant-latitude transect to synergize with Polar 5/6 flights earlier this month. Winds are still blowing north at near gale force..

By AWIPEV, they mean the joint German-French portion of the large research station at Ny-Ålesund, Alfred Wegener and Institute Paul Emile Victor (a Greenland explorer). Some eleven countries do field and lab work there on the ocean, ice tundra, glaciers, troposphere, stratosphere, magnetosphere where there is a benefit (or necessity) to be so far north at 79º.  It's not clear what's involved with Mosaic to 'exchange material" with AWIPEV.

The links below describe some of the research going on. One study is looking how to protect GPS accuracy at high latitude from ionosphere disturbance.

https://www.awi.de/en/expedition/stations/awipev-arctic-research-base.html
https://www.awipev.eu/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AWIPEV_Arctic_Research_Station
https://www.ursi.org/proceedings/procGA20/papers/YSASummaryJin.pdf
https://www.andoyaspace.no/the-grand-challenge-initiative/
https://www.grandchallenge.no/project-cusp/

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 26, 2020, 09:02:44 PM »
The final 2020 extent graphic from Jim Petit: (A click will enlarge, but go to the on-line image to see it better.)

(Other of Jim's data presentations will continue, I'm sure.)

43
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2020, 05:20:03 PM »
Oren:
I was being antagonistic to the position of A-Team, not the person, since he uses his expertise in the area to construct “express science” pictures of very alarmist scenarios. Many posters swallow his paintings as if it was ex cathedra truth. It is not. He complains of slow science sometimes (and of bothersome contributors, and of a thousand things more, he’s basically a “victim”) but the truth is, slow science is rigorous and true and at the end will save our skin, all the noise here will not, including his beautiful constructions.

I hoped you would have not touched my post, but it’s ok.

A-Team gives numerous references to back up his main points and to educate those of us who want to dig into the details. He is not just dazzling us with beautiful graphics. The "alarmist scenarios" are possible outcomes that are consistent with the data and models at hand. To date, scenarios once presented as most likely by the IPCC have been replaced by ones that are more "alarmist".

Your use of the word "alarmist" makes you sound like a right wing troll. Your abusive comments about posters do as well. Have a nice day.

44
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 25, 2020, 01:39:54 PM »
How is DMI N80 heavily skewed?

As I understand it, not all areas N of 80 are equally weighted in their "average."  Weighting increases as you approach the pole.  I can't fathom why it was set up this way.  But having started with this algorithm, it needs to be continued to enable direct year-to-year comparisons.

It was done to relate temperature to equal measures of latitude, instead of area.

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 24, 2020, 11:06:19 AM »
Can you suggest any ways that eradication can happen in a democracy?

Absolutely. All you need is the "demos"  in democracy to be informed about the dangers and how to end them. Most people want to live long an healthy lives and will do what is necesary to accomplish so. A few weeks of sanitary dicipline is within reach of most people.

However, if the people are being systematically deceived, they will not react correctly to the threat. Instead of attempting to avoid disease their confused minds accept the disease with the hope that the confusion and pain this causes will go away. The misinformers even give them placebos like HCQ to encourage them to act againts their best interest.

Being blissfully deceived is not democracy. It is tyranny.

46
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 22, 2020, 01:05:10 PM »
What is the causal mechanism for such a rate reduction under prochoice Administrations?

Expansion of birth control, expansion of sex ed programs, introduction of plan B, expansion of planned parenthood services, etc

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 19, 2020, 12:37:29 AM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

Neven, I join many others in thanking you for hosting us and making all this possible, and thanking Oren also for his excellent moderation.  This is such a valuable service to us as individuals.  You provide vital leadership in spreading understanding of what is happening to our beleaguered planet.
I was looking for a place for years and luckily for me I found it - the ASIF.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 06:56:02 PM »
Whoops - corrected.
       Huh?  I'm still confused (not unusual in my case. Try it, you get used to it after a while).
     
       Here is the supposedly corrected statement at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg286733.html#msg286733
 
"Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

       I think the correct correction would be:
      "Average remaining melt freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 March 2021 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

      Is this right, or is there need to correct my correction of the correction?

      We nitpick because we care.  You only hurt the ones you love.  Ditto thanks to all the data providers for what has been a wild ride of a melting season.  I don't think Friv has even been so thrilled as he was this July.  At least somebody's happy!  And thanks to Oren we got through it with minimal umbrage and personal insults about our pet theories!

      I think there is truth in be cause's tag line:
"2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021"

      And I would add "+ 1 = 2022".  Seriously, the bus could be leaving the station.  The trend has been for changes to occur sooner not later than expected.  When's the last time you saw a climate change story about how things are evolving slower or less drastically than anticipated?   For those of you in the U.S., and everybody everywhere for your own elections, please vote and tell everybody you know to vote for climate rationality.  This infection has to be healed or it will kill us. (Sorry, I couldn't resist... I haven't had a good climate scream for awhile.) 

      Getting back to ASIF business, the path ahead for the coming freeze season, and especially the 2021 melt season, look to be "interesting" (in the Chinese curse sense of "May you live in interesting times", which we certainly are).   

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 08:39:22 AM »
As a testimony of the disruption ongoing on the Atlantic front, the extraordinary heatwave is still ongoing for the Russian islands of the Barents and Kara. For weather stations with such a long record, this is crazy. Up to the 15th of Septembrer, the mean of temperature (the mean...) is above the old monthly record of September. And it is raining, raining, raining.
For Ostrov Vize, with the exception of the 10th, every day since the 14th of August is a record, and the old monthly record of 2015 has been broken twelve days as of now... The month of September is for the moment the warmest month ever recorded, ahead of August 2020  http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069
For Ostrov Golomjanjy, every day of September has been a record, and the old monthly record of 2016 has been broken eleven times. http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20087

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