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Messages - be cause

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 19, 2020, 12:37:29 AM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

Neven, I join many others in thanking you for hosting us and making all this possible, and thanking Oren also for his excellent moderation.  This is such a valuable service to us as individuals.  You provide vital leadership in spreading understanding of what is happening to our beleaguered planet.
I was looking for a place for years and luckily for me I found it - the ASIF.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 06:56:02 PM »
Whoops - corrected.
       Huh?  I'm still confused (not unusual in my case. Try it, you get used to it after a while).
     
       Here is the supposedly corrected statement at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg286733.html#msg286733
 
"Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

       I think the correct correction would be:
      "Average remaining melt freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 March 2021 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2."

      Is this right, or is there need to correct my correction of the correction?

      We nitpick because we care.  You only hurt the ones you love.  Ditto thanks to all the data providers for what has been a wild ride of a melting season.  I don't think Friv has even been so thrilled as he was this July.  At least somebody's happy!  And thanks to Oren we got through it with minimal umbrage and personal insults about our pet theories!

      I think there is truth in be cause's tag line:
"2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021"

      And I would add "+ 1 = 2022".  Seriously, the bus could be leaving the station.  The trend has been for changes to occur sooner not later than expected.  When's the last time you saw a climate change story about how things are evolving slower or less drastically than anticipated?   For those of you in the U.S., and everybody everywhere for your own elections, please vote and tell everybody you know to vote for climate rationality.  This infection has to be healed or it will kill us. (Sorry, I couldn't resist... I haven't had a good climate scream for awhile.) 

      Getting back to ASIF business, the path ahead for the coming freeze season, and especially the 2021 melt season, look to be "interesting" (in the Chinese curse sense of "May you live in interesting times", which we certainly are).   

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 08:39:22 AM »
As a testimony of the disruption ongoing on the Atlantic front, the extraordinary heatwave is still ongoing for the Russian islands of the Barents and Kara. For weather stations with such a long record, this is crazy. Up to the 15th of Septembrer, the mean of temperature (the mean...) is above the old monthly record of September. And it is raining, raining, raining.
For Ostrov Vize, with the exception of the 10th, every day since the 14th of August is a record, and the old monthly record of 2015 has been broken twelve days as of now... The month of September is for the moment the warmest month ever recorded, ahead of August 2020  http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069
For Ostrov Golomjanjy, every day of September has been a record, and the old monthly record of 2016 has been broken eleven times. http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20087

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 14, 2020, 01:11:08 AM »
Quote
Why should covid discussion revolve all the time around Trump?

Not all the time. Only when a person tries to shift blame to a mostly advisory health organization while giving a free pass to a world leader who actively and purposely sabotaged the C19 response.

I bring Trump up to see if you were trully upset against the people who lied and still lying to deceive into sucking covid 19 or if you were just scoring concern trolling karma. Your answer suffices for me to form an opinion. We can move on.

6
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: September 13, 2020, 06:25:22 PM »
Thank you wili. Beautiful. :)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 06:03:00 AM »
September 2-6.

2019.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 03, 2020, 08:00:12 PM »
It's hard to get Arctic field research to adhere to any kind of plan. Mosaic has just had one bad thing happen after another, from not being able to find a suitable floe back in October, unexpectedly rapid TransPolar Drift, seven weeks lost in a resupply snafu, time and sensors wasted in the Fram, abandoned instruments lost to ice motion, more resupply and repositioning delays and the most scientifically damaging of all, loss of the Polar5 and Polar6 spring and summer overflight campaigns.

https://tinyurl.com/y5dyk83u press release

Had these synergistic transects been flown (for atmospheric measurements, pressure ridge and melt pond lidar and ice thickness) the swath of the Polarstern would have been greatly widened. However the Svalbard airport was shut down to non-Norwegian aircraft until just a few days ago. A fall campaign has been started; no information is available on number and routes of flights.

Arguably, the most important thing the Polarstern has done is set out more buoys along its route over and beyond the north pole. While some types of buoys can be air-dropped, others need to be set into place after drilling and confirmed to be working as designed (ie not going sideways through fractures in pressure ridge as was seen in underwater ROV scenes).

Quite a few buoys are currently active in the Arctic Ocean basin, mainly from non-Mosaic projects. Uniq has located a lot of them and plotted their recent drift paths; those are put onto yesterday's AMSR2_AWI below.

The buoy map can only be produced currently relative to the 0 meridian so the Greenland-down AMSR2_AWI has to be rotated 45º. Only the final frame of Uniq's gif is shown. The trick in producing readable text in the overlay is combining 'darken only' over the ice and 'lighten only' over open water.

It's difficult to apportion ice pack edge changes on the Barents side into melt and movement contributions.  No question, lateral melt momentum has been going on steadily for months but per GFS nullschool, persistent and consistent winds are blowing the whole ice pack towards Alaska.

The PS has been stably moored to its current floe since Aug 23 (after leaving the pole on the 19th). This floe has drifted north and east (larger lat and lon) since then. Over the last 11 days, the ship has moved 89.5 km for a speed of 0.324 km/hr without any indication of dimensional melt or compaction in its vicinity.

Presumably the ice edge has been moving north at an even faster nominal rate because of contribution of disappearing peripheral melt there. However subtracting two small numbers of pixel displacements is fraught with error.

The Polarstern is just one point. OsiSaf potentially offers speeds of ice passing by all its grid points. Below, I isolated one grid cell close to the ice edge and chained up arrows over 8 days to get displacement there. The data comes with a 3x vector exaggeration. It is shown together with a display of ship GPS on google earth, jagged because Mosaic cuts off 3 dp from what it shares.

Note this melt season will have exceeded 53% BOE for over a month this year (based on pixel counts on a non-equal area projection). The associated loss of planetary refrigeration is discussed quantitatively in K Pistone et al 2019 "Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean":
Quote

• The complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice would contribute an additional solar radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 to the planet, equivalent to the radiative forcing from one trillion tons of CO2 emissions

• The added solar heating from complete Arctic sea ice loss would be an order of magnitude larger in the month of May than in the month of September


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 12:18:24 AM »
September 1 is one of the year-to-year comparison dates for the U Bremen ASI (from AMSR2) false colour concentration maps, see attached figure. Shown are this year, in the lower right corner, and seven of the previous low years. The other 8 recent years can be seen by clicking the link.

This year, the ice is unusually compact for the date.

When you say it is compact, have you taken all the clouds into account? Lots of cloud cover would give a false impression that the ice is compact, as it would show up with a dark purple colour.

10
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: September 02, 2020, 12:20:04 AM »
Face Shields, Masks With Valves Ineffective Against COVID-19 Spread: Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-shields-masks-valves-ineffective-covid-.html

Thanks for posting this.  Early in the pandemic, I got a box of N95s--with exhalation valve.  Pretty clearly, I've been protecting myself, but not protecting people I expose.  I'll be covering the inside of the vents with tape.  Glasses will fog up more.  Small price to pay for being socially responsible.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 08:46:20 PM »


Conclusion - Salinity, Atlantic and Pacific currents, isolation, bathymetry, turbulence (weather), latitude, and warm/cold landmasses (air masses) all play a significant and varied roll in every melt season. Add in the preceding freezing seasons and the volume/area/extent of the ice pack and maybe we could predict the ending point of each melt season.

(Need a big computer, better measurements, and brilliant programers and we are all set.)
" the volume/area/extent of the ice pack" - we don't even know the condition of the ice-pack. PolarStern proved that by chugging along at 5 to 7 knots at 88 North.

Look at this year - 2019 came in at #2, and the winter freeze was well above average. Conventional wisdom said a pretty ordinary 2020 melting season was in store. Huh.

but then again, UCMiami - you know that very well, you tease, you.

12
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 28, 2020, 03:59:18 AM »
Why is it that there are dozens of posters who have hard-ons for my posts and can recite all of my "pet theories" etc

Yet I can't remember a single contribution of any of them or even their names etc most of the time?

It is like there is a troupe of gypsies who would suck and steal all the thoughts and information from this place until there is nothing left, and then they would move on from the vacant husk, because they were never here to engage constructively to begin with.

Is it really surprising that seems to be what is now happening?

That entire comment speaks volumes about how much thought you put into what others say.... and you talk about people living in their bubbles.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 27, 2020, 11:15:21 PM »
In re my post to Lessons from Covid-19
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3025.msg281693.html#msg281693

Where people in the US state of Iowa who had been tested as negative 1 or more times - if they later tested positive on a subsequent test, it was backdated to their initial test date.

https://www.press-citizen.com/story/news/2020/08/27/iowa-covid-johnson-county-cases-deaths-coronavirus-update/5642618002/

Quote
State data showed a new high Thursday morning in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in Johnson County and across the state in a single day.

At 10 a.m. Thursday, Iowa was reporting an additional 1,475 cases of COVID-19 and 18 additional COVID-19-related deaths — including two in Johnson County — since the state's tally at 10 a.m. Wednesday, according to Coronavirus.Iowa.gov. The state was reporting 334 new cases in Johnson County.

Officials report a total of 1,079 people with COVID-19 have died from the disease across the state, including 26 in Johnson County. The deaths reported Thursday were the county's 17th and 18th in the last six weeks. Between June and the first part of July, the county had gone more than seven weeks without reporting a death related to the disease; the first death related to the disease was reported on April 4.

I watched the county next to lightly populated Iowa County very closely in May and June as to whether or not I could take my 89 and 95 y.o parents to their grandsons wedding.   Johnson County home of the Univ of IA and the State Hospital really dropped the numbers down successfully.   I do have to drive mentally challenged individuals the 3 hours to there at times for procedures and surgeries occasionally.

Short answer for the increase, college bars.

The only MD University in Iowa is in Johnson County - Iowa City - so for a region of the state that also includes the City of Davenport in Scott County with 350,000 people the numbers of beds is
 
Quote
Intensive care unit admissions related to the virus returned to levels not seen since April 23 Wednesday morning and remained there 24 hours later: 36 patients were being cared for in the region's intensive care units Thursday morning. The region hit a peak of 39 ICU patients on April 22.

According to the state website, the region has 307 general hospital beds and 64 ICU beds available for area coronavirus patients.

A total of 88 people incarcerated at Coralville's Iowa Medical and Classification Center and seven staff members are currently positive for the disease, a spike that was first disclosed early last week.
  64 ICU beds.   

And later in the article is the uncertainty if the backdating of new infections continues.   

Quote
*Given reports that the state's system had been wrongly back-dating COVID-19 test results by months, in some cases, the Press-Citizen is reporting a 14-day positivity rate based on its own tracking and not using the state's figure, which was 16.5% Wednesday. State officials have since claimed that the "glitch" had been fixed.

Appended is the Iowa city papers take from Aug 17 on the backdating of infections.

https://www.press-citizen.com/story/news/health/2020/08/17/iowa-coronavirus-numbers-skews-results-covid-19-data-glitch/3385665001/

Quote
“It’s one of the worst data errors that could be happening right now,” said Megan Srinivas, an infectious disease physician in Fort Dodge, Iowa. “We are making these policy calls based on completely flawed numbers and that needs to be acknowledged.”

She said the situation means Iowa’s prevalence of infection and the pandemic’s current trajectory is worse than people realize.

An Iowa Department of Public Health official confirmed the glitch in an email to Jones Friday. He said a system-generated date when test results are reported to the state stays the same when an individual later tests positive.

illogic is not logic.   You can not make up statements like the following.

Quote
“We recognize this is a problem and have been working on logic to handle it,” wrote Rob Ramaekers, the lead epidemiologist in the department’s surveillance unit. He added: “A similar situation is happening with the percent positive calculation. We have raised the issue and are actively working on fixing it.”

So my basic question is "Is the piss poor computer coding that was in effect on Aug 17 still happening to damp - er smooth - er smother down the new infections while we are in the midst of a gigantic spike?"  The answer for me is, "I have no idea." And if this is happening in Iowa, which was known to have decent state institutions for health, social services, etc compared to say Oklahoma or Mississippi or Alabama, think how skewed, no irretrievably broken it is elsewhere. 

 I have co-workers who have returned from Florida  - gone for the summer to finish up at the local small college who will be working with elderly and or fragile mentally challenged people.    Let's see how that works. 



14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 26, 2020, 02:09:07 PM »
Well Laura is now Cat 3 so our first Atlantic Basin 'Major' of the year!

She does appear to be 'bombing' presently so Cast 4 by local sunset is not out of the question...

She's still a little misshapen and the center keeps having trachoidal wobbles (like a spinning top does before it falls over?) so trying to pin down landfall 'by eye' is a tad tricky!

One to watch guys!!!

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 09:42:38 PM »
Wow, just wow! August has sure surprised me and from the looks of it I think melt is going to keep going at a fairly impressive rate. It's amazing to see how the Beaufort is really cleared out.

Thanks for noting that. I'm surprised at how many keep thinking Beaufort is not melting.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 04:01:05 AM »
This might explain the thin ice and melt ponds at the North Pole when the Polarstern arrived in August.

This chart helps to identify areas of densely packed isotherms (lines of equal temperature) indicating a front. Aside from this you can use the modeled temperature in 850 hPa (5000 ft a.s.l.) to make a rough estimate on the expected maximum temperature in 2m above the ground. However, this method does not apply to (winter) inversions.

'Temperatures further up in the atmosphere were less constrained by surface melting: the average temperature at the 850hPa pressure level was 6ºC over the North Pole in July 2020, more than 3ºC warmer than the previous warmest July value on record for this level and location.'

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:59:50 PM »
Thanks for the fine words folks, but let's focus on the ice.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 11:01:50 AM »
Does this count correctly? If so, how little solid ice remains in the Arctic.

19
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 23, 2020, 06:13:54 AM »
Dear All, Based on 7 years of following this site, I commend Neven and Oren on their moderation, and all the posters. I wince every now and then over a big ego display, pointless competitiveness, and rarely, over loose labels like trolls and denialists, but overall the Forum is brilliant. For recent users be aware that A-team is right at the top in terms of quality, but s/he doesn't post much these days. Many of us recall their luminary contributions. Please be gentle in comments about each other, after all how can we be more certain than the developing science we follow?   

20
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 22, 2020, 07:06:15 PM »

21
The rest / forums
« on: August 20, 2020, 03:47:49 PM »
What are other forums you know, especially those similar to asif on their scientific focus?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 09:50:19 AM »
silly question .. would the weather models have any concept of how wet the ice is atm ? If they see it like piomass sees it they may be surprised by developments .  b.c.

No they don't, sea ice is parametrized in the models with fixed constants. It would be way to complex to explicitly model the sea ice for a weather model running every six hours. And yes, models can be underestimating cyclogenesis, which is no news. But this is not only a problem with sea ice. Cyclogenesis is a complex process and is hard to forecast. But in the Arctic, with all the changes ongoing, this is worst, yes. As a side note, models are again forecasting explicitly thunderstorms above the boundary layer on the Atlantic and Pacific side. I did not fully check the models from 00Z today, but IFS or ARP are going on for over 30 millimeters of rain (and rain, no sleet or snow) in 24h for Franz Joseph Land this week-end ! This is crazy. And even up to 85°N, they are going with thunderstorms and a good 20 mm per 24 hours. Sea ice on the Atlantic side is going to be wash out.

For Beaufort Sea, as already said, the warm air advection on the flank of the anticyclone is going to be bad. Even though there is no deep low, there is enough pressure gradient for some significant winds (field of 15 - 25 kts), and with the help of Coriolis, with the fetch of open waters, etc... Waves are going to be pretty significant for the Arctic, from the south east to the south (wave period up to 6  to 8 seconds). This not a big event, but again locally and given the sore state of sea ice in this corner of the Arctic, and the fact that there is a lot to loss, etc... Beaufort Sea is likely to continue its nose dive in the coming days.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 05:40:25 AM »
Be safe be cause! The weather people I follow on Twitter are saying it is going to be pretty rough for you for the next few hours. 

I live in the Midwest US and know what tornadoes and high winds can do. I’ll be thinking about you tonight! If the wind sounds like a train then get down to the lowest place you can find ASAP!

Hopefully this storm will pass you by. Our thoughts will be with you tonight!

24
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »
I was lucky enough to get a PM to Blum before he left and was able to let him know I considered him a friend. He wrote and we ended our relations as friends.
 Blum was pretty far left and his perspectives kinda grated against someone like me who is basically a centrist which IMO is the most difficult placeto be . To be a good centrist you need to see issues through both liberal and conservative perspectives. So for me Blum was pulling harder to the left than I was usually comfortable with but comfort is always dangerous when balancing existential issues.
We deal with tough issues here on the forum, issues too easily swept under the rug for most people.
Here on the forum we have lots of left leaning members , some centrists , and a few brave conservatives. I would hope we could maintain enough grace around here to allow conservatives a voice on occasion because I need the challenge of considering two sides.
 Blum pushed my comfort zone and on occasion Walrus can make me work a little harder to justify where I am comfortable also.
 Thanks to all really but i’d appreciate a little peace for awhile.

25
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 19, 2020, 01:39:11 PM »
It is always better to wash one's dirty linen in private. As has been said already, any visitor reading the forum decorum thread would be likely to think - what the shit is all this?.

& don't be surprised if some of that stuff ends up quoted on an unfriendly website. There are, I am sure, not a few who would love to see the ASIF wounded or even destroyed.

So, is there any way a thread can be locked to restrict access to registered members only ?

It is is possible, I would do the same for the covid-19 thread, and probably as the US election gets near, a lot of the politics stuff. (& maybe the suggestions thread as well).


26
Blumenkraft you fuckin Apsie idiot get your sorry arse back on here.
Winding normies up the wrong way is just the way it is  for us
To pack a sad over some doped up normies delusions is just fucked in the helmet .

27
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 18, 2020, 03:38:30 PM »
As far as I am concerned, the situation is solved.

You shit-talk me, allow FG to shit-talk me and when i say i want proof of these unfounded accusations you say that.

Classy, Neven. Superb.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 10:08:39 PM »
I've long predicted this year would be exceptional, looks like it still will be.

(for me, that means being top 3 in at least 3 of the following 4 areas: extent, area, volume, eye test)

A top 3 rank for the September minimum is not exceptional at all.  In fact, most years were "exceptional" by your definition.  Five of the last 10 years had a top 3 minimum for both extent, area and volume at the time.  And 16 of the last 30 years.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 03:17:34 PM »
Mercator ocean shows a current at 100m running through the Nares strait and wrapping around the north coast of Greenland. The Coriolis effect turns currents with a northwards component to the right in the NH so the current is very likely a warm current running northeastwards through the Nares strait which then keeps turning right along the continental shelf of northern Greenland. The current maps for 30m and 0m show eddies, complexity and directional ambiguity but I'm confident that there has been some upwelling in areas where the ice has been transported away from the coast.
I very much doubt that there is a warm current flowing north through the Nares strait. There is a tidal current in the Nares, but the general flow is of cold water going south. See this paper for more details, "Propagation and Vertical Structure of the Tidal Flow in Nares Strait".

There is apparently a current flowing from the mouth of the Nares north-east along the Greenland coast. I have suggested that this is the northward pulse of the tidal current, similar to what I have experienced alongt he coast of Sicily south of the Messina strait, a narrow and periodic, but at times surprisingly vigorous, current.
I am currently reading a paper from 2015 link. Random extracts attached..
My take on it..
Ice Arches matter - none this year?
The main current is heading south, at the western edge when there is landfast ice, on the centreline when ice is mobile or non-existent..
A narrow current heads north.

With global heating+arctic amplification say goodbye to landfast ice for longer periods of the year?

But much better for people who know what they are talking about to comment.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JC011091
Modeled ocean circulation in Nares Strait and its dependence on landfast‐ice cover

Quote

Ice conditions typically alternate between landfast and mobile states that are associated with the formation and breakdown of ice arches across Smith Sound and northern Robeson Channel [Kwok et al., 2010]. In years in which neither ice arch forms, such as 2007, ice fluxes roughly 2–3 times those of a typical year have been inferred [Kwok et al., 2010] and modeled [Rasmussen et al., 2010].

The multiyear Canadian Archipelago Throughflow Study [CATS; Münchow and Melling, 2008] maintained a mooring array across southern Kennedy Channel (roughly 80.5°N, Figure 1) from 2003 to 2012.

In the annual mean, flow across most of Kennedy Channel is southward with a vertically averaged magnitude of about 7 cm s−1 on the western side of the channel. On the eastern edge of the channel (south of Franklin Island located at 80.8°N, 66.5°W), a narrow current heads to the north with a depth mean of roughly 4 cm s−1. Rabe et al. [2012] showed that the mean structure of the main southward current is markedly different under landfast and mobile ice conditions, with important implications for seasonal and interannual variability of freshwater transport through the strait.

30
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 16, 2020, 12:51:03 PM »
These are Neven's words:

Quote
The only scientifically oriented part of this forum is the one about Arctic sea ice. That was the intended goal of this whole thing. It's the only thing that makes this forum valuable. The rest is BS that can be found all over the Internet.

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued.

From: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg281066.html#msg281066

Neven. I have always admired your moderation style and decisions in the Cryosphere and the AGW section. However in the offtopic sections your moderation is one sided. That's why I barely visit them. It was very easy to get banned by disagreeing politically with you.

Now you are bringing offtopic style moderation to the AGW forum, more specifically the C19 thread.  To  prove your point you would ban people, demote mods and with kassy removing other posters rudeness but keeping yours make a very inappropriate and hostile environment for truth seeking. To prove your point you would trash the whole board.

31
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 15, 2020, 12:41:43 PM »
Unfortunately, in my humble opinion, this shows pretty well how inadequate our response to the huge crisis is, and will be. Our brain is dominated by emotions, specially when some risk, fear, or pain is menacing ourselves.
We are NOT doing enough to stop this huge crisis and some parts of the world are already feeling unhabitable. People living there can only think of survival. (If they still can do)

(Some in the forum seems to be suffering directly with the covid crisis and suddenly coming back to BAU is a priority, maybe for the total lack of collaboration)

As the world is falling apart due to climate change, obviously this forum will fall apart too. Until Internet stops working completely. That's just a natural progression of things.

People are having trouble handling problems, because expectations are too high. I mean - expectations and real life realities don't match each other. Better to accept that things at face value, and the brutal harsh cold truths as they say.

It is said that you can see the true face of people in times of crisis. Especially if people hit real trouble (food, water, money runs out, no power) I don't have an expectation that anybody is going to be nice. Heck, I myself would be immensely suffering and if the body is traumatized due to lack of food for example, brain wouldn't function properly any more either due to lack of vitamins. Which means bad judgements would occur. Again that's the nature of things.

Again the best one can do is to rationally analyze all these scenarios beforehand, accept, adapt, be prepared for worst case scenarios and how can you personally to respond.

You can think of it like that - if people lose their minds over comments on the internet, how are they going to behave when real trouble hits them in real life? You have to ask this and the answer may not be nice.

32
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2020, 12:46:07 PM »
Wow. So you admit that you are actively trying to get rid of the 1% you don't agree with?

No!
This I find a great, small example of how things get misinterpreted on this forum and what got out of hand on the Covid-19-thread: FlowerPower only expressed his lack of respect for the 1%, and it's interpreted as actively trying to get rid of the opposing 1%

Anyway, good to see Shared Humanity back again, even if mainly on reading mode.

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 14, 2020, 10:11:04 AM »

Members who don't understand this, who don't understand how the Internet works, and clutch their pearls and walk off indignantly when Neven says a minor virus doesn't deserve this amount of hype, are not valued. They need to stop putting me on a pedestal and extrapolating my work on Arctic sea ice to all my other opinions. I'm just some idiot.


The only reason why the things you say matter more than the things anybody else says is that you have a MOD tag and Mod power which you will use or treathen to use to win discussions. You are an authority here and authorities have real power. They walk away not because Neven offends them but because the MOD of this discussion has abandoned common good behaviour in favor of Trump like propaganda and argumentation.

It is an unwinnable battle because you can just delete, ban or demote those who oppose you. Thats how the internet works.

Kassy your job as a moderator was to moderate out bad behaviour, including Neven's. You are instead helping him and validating him. Soon he will be left only with those he agrees with, and then there will be nothing to learn for him. ASIF becomes a mirror that tells Neven exactly what he wants to hear.

34
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 12, 2020, 05:43:14 PM »
Maybe Tom and I are the only ASIF members who read the Tverbergs “ finite world “ blog on a regular basis. This month she opines that what we are doing re Covid isn’t working and maybe we need a new game plan for dealing with it without pancaking the rest of the economy. Ugo Bardi at “cassandras legacy” is another contrarian voice that rings familiar to Nevens current contrarian viewpoint.
 So people who have been contrarian voices are ringing alarms. I read through comment sections from groups of people politically quite different than those collected here on the forum. I am trying to figure out why people think like they do , or react so differently to what is obviously a shared threat. I have very good friends who are staunch conservatives and they are not reacting the same as my more liberal friends. It is all very baffling. It doesn’t make me angry however and if I can’t figure out why a good friend I have known for a lifetime is acting like a bunch of Mask protestors in Berlin I sure have no idea what inspires the Berliners.
 When times get very rough in our little house my wife likes to say “ the gods of Mt.Olympus are laughing at us “
 
 So many small changes are happening that are positive. So many people planted gardens and new fruit trees this year, so many people decided to get chickens, milage driven going down, people spending lots of time outside, and so maybe only an upside down world becomes rational . Sorry about all the service economy jobs going poof but not really. Well sorry it’s so painful but servicing our excess is hell on the environment.
Signed
Not a smarter denier

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 12, 2020, 01:13:16 PM »
Neven, I appreciate your post above. I think it is one of the clearest explications of the many (!) explaining where you are coming from.

I wholeheartedly agree that modern techno-industrial society is very brittle and lacks resilience. It is subject to collapse in the face of many different threats. I agree that it is primarily the greed of the few that has led us to this lamentable state. However, in your burning desire to point out the flaws in the system, you have oversold the point that the novel coronavirus is just a minor, inconsequential threat.  It is essentially irrelevant that a totally different, robust, healthy, well-balanced global human society might have shrugged this thing off. Who cares? It is barely worth talking about. I find the information here that delves into what the virus is doing within the world we actually live in to be more interesting, useful and relevant.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: August 10, 2020, 07:52:17 PM »
surely there is a paper on this somewhere

Some insignificant lateral movement 280km from the nearest coast  ;)
more details here

37
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: August 10, 2020, 12:04:46 PM »
A beautiful initiative to save victims of AGW&violence. These humans have a conscience and high morality  :-*
German Protestant church to send migrant rescue boat to Mediterranean
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/06/german-protestant-church-to-send-migrant-rescue-boat-to-mediterranean
  by Lorenzo Tondo in Palermo

 excerpts:
The German Protestant church will send a ship to the central Mediterranean to rescue migrants attempting to reach Europe from north Africa.

The mission, managed by United4Rescue – an initiative led by the Protestant church in Germany (EKD) and backed by more than 500 other organisations – is the result of a crowdfunding campaign launched a few months ago named #WirSchickenEinSchiff (“We send a ship”).

“We connect all social organisations and groups that do not want to stand by and watch thousands of people die in the Mediterranean,” United4Rescue says on its website.

One does not let any single human drown, end of discussion,” the head of EKD, Heinrich Bedford-Strohm, said during the ceremony. “This ship has to be out there, because European states do not intend, nor do they manage, to rescue people in the Mediterranean.”

“However, the ship is not only a rescue asset, but also a strong political statement against Europe’s deadly politics. It is a huge 60.8-metre sign of solidarity, sent by over 500 organisations, of civil society, with the church in the front row. It demonstrates that civil society, in Europe, disagrees with the fact that governments choose to let people drown, instead of allowing them to arrive at Europe’s shores.

The mission will also be joined by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).

“No human being should be left to drown, to sink beneath the waves. No human being should be forced to endure torture and suffering. Yet this is the consequence of criminal dereliction of duty by European governments,” said Oliver Behn, MSF director of operations.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:23:50 PM »
Really I am not surprised at the slow down in extent losses as there was a lot of aggressive preconditioned sea ice this season and much of that melted out quickly and completely in July leaving no easy melt remaining.  Subsequently we have seen aggressive melt and disruption of the Beaufort and Chukchi and disturbing weakness north and east of Peary Land to a degree I cannot recall seeing in prior years.  Almost looks like a channel may form across the Fram and up and east of the Morris-Jesup Plateau towards the pole.  Additionally the situation looks to be un-favourable along the Atlantic front ( if no more melt occurs there it is already not a good year ) or the CAA.

Thus I am surprised by commentary anticipating a continued slowdown in extent losses when it looks much more like losses are about to pick up again.

You're most probably on the wrong track and I am surprised that you cannot see what's visible with our naked eyes in addition to the many other parameters that were explained in detail.

Re-read the comment, all the way to the end. You are in agreement.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:36:56 AM »
I haven't seen anything about this on this forum, so:

Sorry, Killian, but if you haven't seen it in multiple places already, then you are clearly not paying attention. :P

40
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 08:33:41 AM »
OK, I missed something. Can I not go backpacking for a few days & return to "situation unchanged"? haha

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2020, 01:39:45 AM »
Just to confirm .. this is open for donations toward gero's computing needs ..

https://www.gofundme.com/f/geros-laptop/share

  virtual hugs and kisses to all donors .. and a promise of graphs and numbers a plenty to follow .. b.c.
That was an easy sell, love your work here Gerontocrat. With the goal exceeded by a country mile, buy a nice workstation rather than just a plain old laptop.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:47:21 PM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,

Matt

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:21:01 PM »
  .. or not ! .. I've got things covered .. I offered to cover Gero in circumstances like this a year or 2 ago so now i am .. however I'm delighted to see community in action .. b.c.

I echo the sentiment of others, G has been a tremendous resource - please let me (us) know what we can do - I have years of experience in data recovery, if needed.  (It sounds like the drives should be intact ... but whatever I can do to help).

 ::)

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:00:30 PM »
I do not post that much, but I'm here daily checking numbers.
Please, let me know where I can contribute toward a new laptop for Gero. His graphs are so essentials and truly missed.
Thanks everybody for all the work and love you put in this space.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 06:03:35 PM »
I'm good for fifty quid.

SB&N

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:45:05 PM »
My God gerontocrat! That's awful. I wish you have made backups.
Perhaps we from the forum could each give some money for you to buy a (2nd hand?) laptop.

I wish you strength with the sudden hole in your life/routine.
A virtual hug from me.
Good Idea,
All right, Nanning, if anyone opens a pot to help Gerontocrat, I'm in.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:37:51 PM »
My God gerontocrat! That's awful. I wish you have made backups.
Perhaps we from the forum could each give some money for you to buy a (2nd hand?) laptop.

I wish you strength with the sudden hole in your life/routine.
A virtual hug from me.

48
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:17:21 PM »

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:58:18 PM »
Below, is a visible satellite image from today for Northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean.

The source of the image is the Meteorological Service of Canada:

  https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html#hrpt

It provides a nice clear view of some of the rotten ice in the arctic, including the area north of Greenland discussed by uniquorn and friv, above. 

50
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:23:38 AM »
Feels really strange, but I had to put Neven on my ignore list after the really really bad comment about Herman Cain and his cancer. I had cancer myself two years ago and according to Neven it is OK if I die in case I get Covid 19 - as I will die with Covid and not of Covid.
Somehow I have a different opinion.

I can't stand his comments any more.

For me he is a lost case.....

.

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