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Messages - BenB

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1
assuming correlation of the rough overlay. From left to right
2 is shallow at 0-10m
1 and 4 at 10-20m
3 and 5 at 20-30m
5 at 30-40m

thanks for checking :)
6 is not on the map but looks like 0-10m (close to New Siberian islands)

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 08:34:41 PM »
Ascat with NSIDC ice age overlaid at 20% transparent, mar21-aug12. Not the cleanest animation but here attempting to highlight Oren's comment about first year ice upthread.
The ice age product is weekly and has been duplicated so that the dates should match (edit: except for this week). When this week's ice age map is released I'll try an overlay with amsr2 which should be cleaner.
ice age colours are altered slightly by the transparency

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 11, 2019, 11:21:49 PM »
Correlation Coefficients between pre and post day 212

Piomas: -0.32344182
High Arctic: -0.227528106
Arctic Basin: 0.042631957
CAB: 0.724407856


Graphs attached.

4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 08, 2019, 07:25:03 AM »
The ice cap (I think that's what this is?) north of the 79N glacier is melting pretty strongly. This is from a few days ago. Note the melt water accumulating around the edges as well as flowing into the channels. These all eventually drain into a big lake.

Is the whole thing a transparent ice cube ??

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 02:13:44 PM »
A simple technique to visualize 1-week changes in the pack was used before by others, consisting on using only two images (in this case UH AMSR2 Jun 25 and Jul 02) and smoothly transition from one to the other, ignoring the real variations.

6
Hey All
Re waves, ice and such: if I may offer a real-world analogy... floating breakwaters. There's youtube videos out there, I bet. I will search for links when not working from a phone. They are larger versions of pontoon marinas, and they have some similar characteristics to ice in the path of oncoming waves.
This is a bit simplified I know, but there are enough similarities to make it relevant,  I think.
Waves have a period, a height and a length. Floating breakwaters dispel energy for short waves at low periods, but not above 5 seconds. Low period waves splash off the pontoon face, onto or over the deck. Higher period (longer) waves cause pontoons to gently rise and fall, with minimal energy dissipation. Short fetch = short length / low period. Long fetch and long, strong winds = long wavelength & higher period waves. Within a marina basin, if waves are short, water is calm. Long waves = boats tossed about. But in neither case does water transmit past the pontoon to any meaningful degree. Wave height only determines amount of splash or tossing, depending on period...
Hope this is helpful.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:33:25 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 11:36:44 AM »
I found a paper called:

Sediment transport by sea ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas: Increasing importance due to changing ice conditions?
...
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/40de/e8b9d38feb5d9cfc74ad898d904892a87ac7.pdf

A really great find! Of course, the sedimentary origin of the discoloration has never been in doubt as far as I am concerned until slow wing pointed out that algae growth on the underside can cause the same effect.

But according to the abovementioned paper, the discoloration in the Chukchi is apparently caused in the following manner along the Alaska/Canada shore.

Over shallow waters, preferably 20 - 30 meters but up to 50 meters, turbulence caused by strong winds can lift sediments from the sea floor, at the same time as frazil ice is formed on the surface. Throughout winter, strong offshore winds can create temporary polynia where the process can repeat itself, thus continuing to catch sediments throughout winter.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 07:50:45 AM »
"400 gallons of diesel has 15MW of energy "

Wait, what ? MW is power. MWH is energy. H is hour. MWH is 1 megawatt for 1 hour. As i just finished explaining, power and energy are related by time.

1 Joule is 1 watt for 1 second. 1 watt is 1 Joule per second. 1 megawatthour(MWH) is 1e6watt for 3600 seconds=3.6Gigajoule.

1 gallon of diesel has 150 MJoule energy. If you burnt 1 gallon of diesel in 10 seconds you would generate 150MJoule/10sec=15MW of power. For 10 seconds.

If you really want to see 15MW up close (not recommended at all, you will lose hair, perhaps skin, or more) toss a gallon of diesel on a roaring bonfire.

400 gallons of diesel has 400x150 = 60000 MJoule energy. Or 60 GigaJoule. Thats roughly 15 MWH, is that what you meant ? But your next sentence leaves me flummoxed again

"5MW of distance"

say what ? MW is power. Distance is distance.

How fast do you wanna burn  ? that will tell you power output.

Divide energy by time to get power. Multiply power by time to get energy.

Lets say you burnt 400 gallon fast enuf to get 15MW out. Thats a gallon every 10 seconds, it would take 4000 seconds to burn 400 gallon diesel, or 67 minutes. Whatcha driving, a dragline ? cargo container at hi speed, capn wants to water ski ?

sidd

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 20, 2018, 11:30:43 AM »
Do you have a faint glow in the dark Terry?
Faint - very faint. As my eyes get older it hardly disturbs my sleep now.
Terry

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 17, 2018, 07:44:02 PM »

I would like to nominate George. He won't commit securities fraud. He won't accuse anyone of being a pedophile. He won't give unhinged interviews. He won't make impossible promises. He won't nepotistically acquire failing companies. He will only improve employee moral. How do I get in contact with Tesla's board to let them know? Twitter the official channel?

We should pursue this proposal doggedly.

12
Obviously petrol and diesel cars might one day catch up, but for the moment it's a bit unrealistic to consider them serious competitors to EVs.  ;)

Hi Ben. "Carnot" gonna happen.  ;D
--
Cheers,
Lodger

13
Quote
Shouldn't we quit the attacks on incrementalism and start working on how to make the steps larger/faster?

Why is it an 'attack' when someone says that incrementalism is not going to work and will most likely lead to civilisational collapse? Why isn't one allowed to say this, without being branded a 'radical' 'conspiracy theorist' 'doomer' engaging in 'magical thinking'?

You cannot greenify the supply side, while doing nothing on the demand side, in other words, without making systemic changes to the way western society is set up.

It is set up the way it is because concentrated wealth needs to grow at an exponential rate. And this is for a large part achieved through a consumerist culture that makes sure we do not "quit smoking, quit over drinking, lose weight, get more exercise, watch less junk TV and do something educational, invest for our retirement, get our oil changed on schedule", and so on.

As long as there's no cap on concentrated wealth in ever fewer hands, human beings and the environment will be sucked dry for all they're worth, with all this 'value' forcefully created out of thin air to be siphoned off to those mountains of concentrated wealth. This is what drives the system.

And you can't make that sustainable. Period.

I have a problem with the argument that there is no alternative and so I must shut up. Especially if I'm being told in a condescending way.

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