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Messages - Michael Hauber

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 29, 2018, 04:57:18 AM »
The soil and rock below us cannot absorb as much water as the ocean, but it still can absorb quite a lot.Brown Ocean effect

Trivial correction: Should presumably have been "as much heat" and not "as much water".

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 17, 2018, 08:42:48 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,248,792 km2(August 16, 2018)

For those who do care a flying whatsit, herewith some more extent data.

Just to add to Juan's post...

- Extent is now 84 k km2  (1.6 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- and 112 k (2.1%) above 2017 (which is about to start a series of below average extent losses) ,
- Extent loss to date is now 286 km2 (3.2 %) below the 2008-2017 average, with 89.6 % of the average melting season done.

Resulting minimum from average remaining melt is  4.21 million km2, (excluding 2012 from the average gives 4.24 million km2 - an insignificant difference). Range of results from last ten years remaining melt is 3.96 to 4.58 million km2 - also a narrowing range. For a minimum at 2nd lowest remaining melt needs to be about 14% above average. For a new record low remaining melt would need to be 2.07 million km2 as opposed to the average remaining melt of 1.03 million km2, i.e 1.04 million (100 %) above the average. Not feasible.

Of interest (?) is that in 2012 melt from this point was just 0.26 million (25%) above the average remaining melt.

That 2017 feeling wanes and waxes- extent losses are only slowly (or not at all) catching up on the slow melt to date and NSIDC Area losses have slowed significantly. There is, on average, just 10.4% (27 days) of further extent loss to go. Could the melting season last a bit longer than that - Yes.  On the other hand, could extent loss sharply reduce? Yes.

A September minimum in the range of 4.00 to 4.50 million km2 seems probable, with the result of least drama at 0.2 million km2 above 2nd place, 0.2 million km2 below 2017 and about 1 million km2 above the 2012 outlier.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 03, 2018, 05:08:36 PM »
NCEP Reanalysis temperature data for June (since 1948):

Arctic: 6th
Atlantic: 46th or thereabouts
Siberian: 1st (more than 1° C higher than previour record)
Pacific: 12th
Canadian: 37th or thereabouts

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 21, 2018, 03:25:35 AM »
The image just provided uses Fahrenheit while the one above it uses Celsius.

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