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Messages - steve s

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Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: August 09, 2019, 05:24:20 PM »
There is (appears to be) a valve that opened in the crack at the bottom of that GIF.   What are 'you' letting out ...OR... What have you unleased on the world?  :o

While methane emissions from past, present and projected future human bodies, is a minor source of GHG in the atmosphere, it is still interesting to note that it is increasing nonlinearly through at least 2100:

Daniela Polag et al. (2019), "Global methane emissions from the human body: Past, present and future", Atmospheric Environment,
Volume 214, 1, 116823,
You forgot the plain language summary AbrubtSLR:

Methane from farts is increasing faster than human population rise alone would indicate. While the article does not speculate on the reasons for increased fartification, it does point to the importance of considering all factors when assessing fart rates.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: March 29, 2019, 12:24:03 PM »
The ice-free days project by Tealight's Avatar Nico Sun also shows so well the marked change in Antarctica over the last 4 years.

(I wish I had a computer half as good as his.)

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 23, 2019, 09:30:35 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,425,076 km2(March 22, 2019)

In the last week extent gain has been at or below average.

Extent GAIN of 68k, 0 k  different from  the average gain of 68 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 1,000 k, 728k (42%) less than the average of 1,728 k by this day,
- 10.6% of the freezing season done, with 178 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.76 million km2, 300k less than 2017 (record low max year).
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 21, 2019, 02:52:21 PM »
Hi gerontocrat!
My take on the sudden turn around in extent/area around Antarctica was always a two pronged assault with both ocean/surface and upper trop/strat boundaries in play?

The upper atmospheric level was tied into the forcings that low ozone placed there and the ocean/atmosphere was a matter of 'tweaked' Naturals ( Tweaked by the asian dimming since the early 90's)

So are the changes temporary or for good?

Well .for me, a bit of both!

The Ozone hole will ( hopefully ) continue to mend and so that portion of the forcing that brought about that 1% increase in extent per decade is now ending.

The flip of the naturals will surely flip back at some point but ,again, the portion that was driven by asian dimming is now also passed its maximum impact as China forges ahead with its clean air initiatives?

As such I now expect us to rapidly catch up with the modelled losses we saw in the 80's/90's with the 'odd' exceptional year of ice growth in among the steady drops.

To me the issue has to be the ability of the ice to transfer swells to the coasts/shelfs behind? In the Arctic ships have witnessed 1m ice put up no obstacle to swells passing through it so will the same apply in the Southern Ocean?

If shelfs now have to face year round 'waggling' from wave and tide it must take more of a toll on them than a 3 or 4 month window of waggling does?

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