Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - BornFromTheVoid

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 01:55:35 PM »
The CCP designed COVID in a lab. 
More idiocy. Getting tired reading your rants.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:51:39 PM »
New ice formed over the open waters south of Mackenzie King Island overnight between 18th and 19th September.

Estimated area of about 4.2 km2. GIF needs a click to run.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2020)
« on: September 20, 2020, 12:16:15 PM »
Changes from August 31.

Chukchi ... -100%
Beaufort ... -32%
CAB ... -6%
CAA ... +14%
Greenland ... +12%
Baffin ... +43%

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2020, 04:53:56 PM »
Bravo Samuel, beautiful. Thanks for all your efforts! :)
What ana says.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 01:01:16 PM »
AMSR2: Some recent days of 2020 compared to 2012
Rough overlay of 2012 vs 2020 using awi amsr2 v103, aug20-sep15 (am/pm)

gimp grain extract, the years were slightly different sizes so there is a small scaling error

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 16, 2020, 06:27:37 PM »
AMSR2: Some recent days of 2020 compared to 2012

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 07:50:55 PM »
As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 11:59:22 AM »
I think especially at this point in time where the melting season turns to the freezing season your graphic is incredibly useful BFTV. Because usually there is freezing and melting at the same time in different regions which the raw extent number can't describe. But your graphic/animation gives a clear overview where it is happening. Thank you for making them, especially now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 02:04:26 AM »
Gerontocrat's stats say 99.8% of the melt season is over , today is the last day of an average melt season . Already some have ceased to update their stats as others head for the 'real' excitement of an election . Putting this season to bed so early may turn out to be a mistake .
   This is not an average melt season . It has been one of record breaking warmth . The ice , as Polarstern bears witness , is in a mobile , weak state . The damage done by the depression N. of the CAA was remarkable . As BFTV has remarked above , and A-team elsewhere , ice retreats with little resistance N. of Laptev ; and warm winds continue in the coming days
  Warm water , wind and waves are in wait , and will be for another week or two .  If a real storm enters the basin and stays a few days , volume and area could come crashing down  , extent may too . b.c.

   warming up for winter ?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 12, 2020, 03:05:51 PM »
Probably not. We haven't had the teasing ups and downs yet.
mercator 0m temperature(SST) with amsr2-uhh sic overlay, jun1-sep11

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 12, 2020, 04:54:12 AM »
But these MOSAiC people in charge aren't stupid. They are control freaks right down to their misogynistic dress code. They did have bad luck concerning the virus, and they deserve to be cut some slack about that, but cutting off normal internet communications while the pandemic was ongoing was a brutal and insensitive thing to do to people concerned about aging parents and children at home.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 06:06:22 PM »
The Polarstern from above on "Sunday morning", via the MOSAiC Twitter feed:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 03:30:33 PM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st

That is a great representation of the melting season. Even better to examine than animations, I think. Thank you so much! (and Freegrass as well for his daily forcast graphics)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 03:13:26 PM »
Today's images an animation. Those gains are easily balancing out the losses now, with the fracturing of ice in the centre of the pack a clear effect from the storm.
(larger animation on twitter)

That picture from the Polarstern that A-Team posted indicated the snow has fallen and melt ponds beginning to re-freeze nearer to the pole. But I think the increased concentration on the ice edge facing the East Siberian Sea is still mostly ice being moved around more than refreezing ocean. We will see. Your daily graphics and animation are wonderful, thank you.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 01:13:58 PM »
Nsidc has data back to 1972.

But they don't use them in their charts.

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..

The satellite is really American.

But the American organization itself does not seem to trust them. Therefore, the standard should be data from the University of Bremen, which is more accurate with data.
The NSIDC (& JAXA) record from 1979 is consistent. i.e. they ensured the data from replacement satellites is consistent with data from earlier satellites. That meant NOT using the increased resolution possible with new technology.

The latest sensors are more accurate but their data cannot be used for comparisons with data before, e.g, 2012.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 11:57:55 PM »
amsr2-awi dev v1.03 latest
amsr2-uhh, sep8 for comparison.
awi dev possibly using later swaths.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 09, 2020, 10:03:19 PM »
A fairly extensive and detailed new feature of mid-concentration ice has opened in the CAB well above Ellesmere in this morning's AMSR2_AWI. It was too foggy to confirm on WorldView but seems correlated with a rather localized cyclonic weather feature shown on nullschool at the time.

Given weather artifacts, this wouldn't be worth mentioning except for the appearance and unexpected persistence of the mega-crack along the CAA and the opening between Greenland and the North Pole. These showed how little we really know about the current condition of the ice, even within the CAB. If real, this feature will stay visible in future days.

We don't actually have a swath timing map to coordinate better with 3-hr GFS weather maps and other satellites. That conceivably could be derived from the orbital map for GCOM-C if that indeed is the satellite carrying the AMSR2 sensor that Jaxa data is taken from for AMSR2_AWI. The period is 140 minutes but how the final image is actually built may require QGIS.

update: uniq has found a clear channel in the visible that confirms the AMSR2_AWI concentration break-up, below enhanced and with land mask and distance scale. It's always a good idea to check all the visibles because they are at different times and the clouds sometimes clear. The nh_20200909PM_SIC has not yet come onto the AWI server but should also confirm; the AM/PM should be posted 12 hrs apart at predictable times but currently are not.

This was not an epic cyclone though it attained low gale force winds that persisted over 42 hrs. The CAB ice is really in a vulnerable state, far worse than anyone had imagined or modeled. Just like the NP at the time of the Polarstern transit.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 09:45:44 AM »
Hello everyone!
I have been lurking this forum since December 2018 (I discovered this website through a Paul Beckwith video) and I want to thank you all for the high quality content posted here everyday by the ASIF community.

I wanted to share my findings regarding some questions that were asked about the Bremen sea ice extent numbers:
-In their website, it is stated that
Since July 3, 2012, AMSR2 data is displayed which is adapted with the same parameters as its predecessor AMSR-E. The fit parameters are not deduced by comparing it during an overlap period to another time series. Hence, the data ought to be treated with caution until confirmation by independent sources.
therefore if I've understood this well there's no reason we couldn't compare the (future) September 2020 sea ice extent minimum with 2012's.
-Moreover, I've found Bremen's 2012 September daily minimum here :, It was reached September 15th with a value of 3,274,138.00 km², today's daily value is 3,318,268.00 km²,, so for 2020 to beat 2012, by that measure, it would need an extent loss of at least 44,131 km². If it happens, it will surely be by the end of the week.

I hope you found my post informative and useful. I have nothing else to add for all I know about sea ice I have learnt from here. I shall now return lurking in the shadows.  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 12:29:47 PM »
Today's images and animation.
Thanks BFTV.
It appears like widespread surface and open water freezing within the pack, while some of the edges continue to melt. Some of the new ice could be artifacts but I doubt such an effect would be across the entire pack.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 03:33:33 AM »
Sentinel-1 animation of the Lincoln Sea. Nares Strait export has renewed since Aug 29th, with one of the large floes sloshing around for the last two months about to go out the door.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 02:14:05 PM »
Today's polarview S1 to complement BFTV's analysis. 08:00 UTC  08:23:33 UTC
There's still some low concentration areas beyond the ice edge despite the constant 'compressional drift'

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 01:56:21 PM »
The 85o North barrier is broken through from 45o to 75o East.
The nice thing is that a clean ice-edge means there can be no dispute.

I guessed a few days ago from 30 to 75 degrees East. 2 out of 3 ain't bad - given my previous efforts it's a B+.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 09:50:32 PM »
From NSIDC most recent post wrt Arctic sea ice and Atlantification: "Atlantification continues
As discussed in a recent paper in the Journal of Climate led by colleague Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska, the process of “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean, first noted in the Barents Sea, is continuing, with significant effects on the sea ice cover during the winter season in the Eastern Eurasian Basin. The relatively fresh surface layer of the Arctic Ocean is underlain by warm, salty water that is imported from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The cold fresh surface layer, because of its lower density, largely prevents the warm, salty Atlantic waters from mixing upwards. However, the underlying Atlantic water appears to have moved closer to the surface in recent years, reducing the density contrast with the water above it. Recent observations show this warm water “blob,” usually found at about 150 meters (492 feet) below the surface, has shifted within 80 meters (263 feet) of the surface. This has resulted in an increase in the upward winter ocean heat flow to the underside of the ice from typical values of 3 to 4 watts per square meter in 2007 to 2008 to greater than 10 watts per square meter from 2016 to 2018. Polyakov estimates that this is equivalent to a two-fold reduction in winter ice growth."

Further reading: Polyakov, I. V., et al. 2020. Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 33, 8107–8123, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0976.1.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 02:19:54 PM »
I realize there have been some false alarms for storms developing from the Atlantic side over the last several weeks, but this is only Day 4 and is very similar on GFS and ECMWF. A little weaker on the Canadian forecast model. That would be a important late season stirring if it happens. My hunch is there is still a lot of melt potential.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 01:02:40 AM »
That's really great BornFromTheVoid, many thanks.

Unfortunately I don't have time to do the animation this evening. But hopefully an image will suffice for now!

BFTV, I think that the graphic you created is great.  It is very informative to see the progression of the melting for each time period during July and August.   Thanks again for your great contributions to the Forum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 08:02:48 PM »
whoi itp114 in the Beaufort. Microcat1 is mounted at 5m depth. Peaked at -0.665C today, avg closer to -0.75. Position is roughly centre of the worldview image.

Last buoy status on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : temperature = -0.8125 °C, battery = 10.423 V
Plot of ITP Buoy Status
Last position on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : 74.6377° N, 136.6473° W

2020  244.20834   -0.7900   26.4626   5.963
2020  244.21876   -0.7863   26.4580   5.967
2020  244.22918   -0.7592   26.4432   5.968
2020  244.23959   -0.6650   26.4070   5.963
2020  244.25001   -0.7083   26.4379   5.964
2020  244.26043   -0.7417   26.4465   5.962
2020  244.27084   -0.7502   26.4250   5.960
2020  244.28126   -0.7843   26.4523   5.956
2020  244.29168   -0.8026   26.4560   5.962

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 03:26:35 PM »
Today's images the slow animation covering 25th to the 30th. The a slightly larger version of the animation on my twitter page too.

BFTV....I would like to thank you for these images and GIFs. They are amazing.

If you look at the GIF at the end of your comment, the activity on the Atlantic side suggests to me that 1st place is still not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, I have no idea what I am talking about.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 27, 2020, 01:13:37 PM »
Yep, so it seems the Bremen data is the odd one out. Though the updated extent has moved more inline with the other two.


OSI SAF service message #2112
Sent on Thu, 27/08/2020 - 11:27 UTC

Title : Corrupted product Global Sea Ice Concentration (AMSR2) OSI-408

Message :

Dear OSI SAF Sea Ice Concentration User,

Due to an anomaly in the processing chain the product with timestamp
"202008261200" for the Northern Hemisphere is corrupted and will be removed.
We are working on solving this issue. We apologize for any inconvenience.
Best regards,


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 26, 2020, 05:47:26 PM »
Here's todays maps, and a slow animation of the last 3 days.
Still haven't had much time to work on the new colour schemes, hopefully this weekend!

Dont burn yourself out, you are doing great work

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 26, 2020, 04:13:22 AM »
Another animation of the Chukchi and Beaufort, this time using the Bremen AMSR2 regional maps over the last 3 weeks. Judging by the way the process progressed in the Chukchi, and by the bad state the Beaufort ice appears to be in, it certainly seems possible that the Beaufort could still clear out or at least drop sharply before the minimum, although Worldview gives me a different impression.
Not much long to wait...


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 25, 2020, 02:43:05 PM »
This is an amazing place and I have no idea why we have all gone bonkers lately.
Could it be stress from the Lockdowns and other crises this year?

I kinda agree with this take Tom?

Across the internet I've seen folk appear to mentally explode (or implode?) due to the 'personal stresses' these 'interesting times' has placed on them?

Obviously anyone watching such 'odd' episodes from once respect posters (where ever it occurs?) is unsettling & can drive further outbursts from others in some perverse domino effect?

Maybe we should redouble our efforts to be more caring for those around us & more understanding that we are all different & that the way 'Mad 2020' is impacting us will vary from person to person?

Be Well Comrades!

Be Nice Comrades!


Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 25, 2020, 01:43:34 PM »
The new AMSR2 product can from now on be found here. Thanks for all the feedback!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 23, 2020, 09:15:41 PM »
awi amsr2(dev) histogram pixel count, 1-99% concentration to highlight smaller curve differences. Just a hint of harmonic at 50

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:59:50 PM »
Thanks for the fine words folks, but let's focus on the ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 11:13:35 PM »
Nice graphic and the best representation of the retreat of the Atlantic front along a very long line. Because it is retaining the same shape and retreating at almost identical speed from Greenland to Asia it is easy to miss when the significant loss on a daily or even weekly view is small - seeing the final 3 week difference is eye opening.

On a separate point - talk of a paradigm shift in 2020 is a tad hyperbolic - there was certainly such a shift either in 2007 or 2012 whichever year you prefer but it is difficult to identify the next one until we have the perspective of following years to see whether this year is a continuation of a trend or has actually created some new state of arctic ice.

Currently this year is tracking within the range of previous years and exhibits fluctuations similar to previous years based primarily on the vagaries of weather. There has been a clearly identifiable trend in terms of decreases in older ice, extent, area, and volume over this past 15 years, but as of yet nothing exceptional this year. Should the melt season throw surprises into the last month it might represent something new and different - a late minimum, a sudden crash, or even just a long string of near century drops this late are all possible surprises.

I just think the use of terms like paradigm shift are injudicious as they can be turned into meaningless arguments to discredit or obfuscate the undeniable science.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 10:39:13 PM »
First 3 weeks of August.

I agree with grixm regarding the contrast between cyan and green. I am happy with WHITE Land Mass, GREY Sea and RED Ice Loss.

Never-the-less, side by side synchronized graph and visual - it just keeps getting better! What a technique this would be for a comparative of all of the metrics.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 10:28:54 PM »
Thoughts on this as a new colour scheme?

Honestly it's not so good on the eyes, I think. The contrast between cyan and green is unpleasant. And also dark gray ocean is not intuitive either, I associate gray with invalid or irrelevant data such as land in the case of ice, not the value 0.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: August 22, 2020, 07:15:51 PM »
Panopticon: Facebook Wants to Help Build AI That Can Remember Everything for You [... and About You]

... Mike Schroepfer, Facebook's chief technology officer, hopes this work, though early stage, could eventually power products like a pair of smart glasses to help you remember everything from where you left your keys to whether you already added vanilla to a bowl of cookie dough. In short, he wants to perfect AI that can perfect your own memory. [... all you have to do is surrender your privacy]

... But Schroepfer's goal could depend on the company convincing people to trust Facebook to develop technology that may become deeply embedded in their personal lives — no small feat after years of privacy controversies and concerns about how much personal information the social network already has from its users.

And in order to turn these AI systems into the sort of memory machine Schroepfer envisions, you would have to wear a pair of sensor-laden augmented-reality glasses, which have so far struggled to gain much traction. Facebook, like other tech companies including Snap and reportedly Apple, is working on AR glasses.

... Facebook's latest AI research builds upon an existing open-source environment simulator that the company introduced in 2019 called AI Habitat, which is meant to enable AI researchers to quickly train AI systems in realistic-looking digital replicas of real spaces, like a kitchen or living room.

Over time, this kind of AI research could be used for robotic assistants, which are still in the early stages of understanding and navigating indoor spaces.


Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 22, 2020, 04:44:41 PM »
I piss on 'pecking order'  :)
One doesn't take it serious but deals with it.

And I second the graphics compliment above.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 21, 2020, 11:34:28 PM »
Here's the title:
Massive Ice Control on Permafrost Coast Erosion and Sensitivity.

It will be in GRL. A lot of it is from my PhD research,though I'm further down the author list as more senior people take the main authorship positions:(. This one is primarily based on our use of passive seismics to detect and map out variations in subsurface layers of ice. This was used with DEMs and historical shoreline analysis to describe how these ice layers alter the variations in shoreline retreat rates and vertical mass loss at our field site. Being able to detect where and how thick these ice layers are is important for determining how much carbon is in the soil too. Lots of ice = less carbon. Little ice = more carbon.

Congratulations on being published!  I'm looking forward to reading it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 10:17:21 AM »
Latest daily sea ice change

Some ice has re-appeared in the Chukchi sea.
That ice is certainly there. This kind of foam ice appears to be giving grief to the satellite algorithm.
Click to enlarge.

Changes from July 31.

Laptev ... -100%
Barents ... -100%
Hudson ... -100%
Kara ... -91%
Chukchi ... -72%
ESS ... -63%
Greenland ... -61%
Beaufort ... -37%
CAA ... -28%
Baffin ... -22%
CAB ... -16%

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:55:40 AM »
August 13-19.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 08:24:39 PM »
Some pretty incredible news from the North Pole today!

Below, is a photograph taken from the Polarstern at 12:45 pm on August 19, 2020 as the ship reached the North Pole. There are lots of melt ponds, and the ice that is left looks very thin.

”Based on the satellite imagery, at first we weren’t sure whether the loose ice cover was due to wind and currents, and were concerned that, if it was, a change in weather conditions could compact it again. Then we would have been caught in a mousetrap, and could have become trapped in the ice,” reports the MOSAiC Expedition Leader, who had previously reached the North Pole on board a research aircraft, in 2000. Once in the region, however, they found that much of the sea ice truly had melted away, and hadn’t simply been broken up by the wind.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 03:41:43 PM »
Blumenkraft saved the day for me so I'm biased.

As regards the debate(?) (and thus debase a good word) above...
No-one won.
The forum lost.

and that is definitely all I'm going to say about that.

PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated to day 228 (15/16 August). Calculated volume on that day is 5.14 [1000km3], which means a third lowest place before 2012 and 2019.

Here is the animation for August thus far.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 18, 2020, 09:13:46 PM »
NSIDC Graphs...

Looks like the Chukchi has realised resistence is futile & given up.

The CAA continues to confuse, area losses continue steadily while extent losses dither.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 18, 2020, 05:18:44 PM »
perhaps it's time to remove forum decorum from the info centre

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 18, 2020, 04:04:25 PM »
NSIDC Daily Area: August 17

Arctic Sea ice area: 3,005,325 million km^2.

Change from yesterday:  23,405 km^2

(2020) Area daily: 3.005                            Extent daily : 4.957       

NSIDC: September daily area minimum     NSIDC: September daily extent minimum

(2012) 2.241                                             : 3.340  <<  Sep  16
(2016) 2.477                                             : 4.145         Sep   7               
(2011) 2.940                                             : 4.333         Sep   8
(2019) 2.960                                             : 4.166         Sep 18
(2017) 3.020                                             : 4.635         Sep 13
(2007) 3.050                                             : 4.155         Sep 18
(2008) 3.120                                             : 4.586         Sep 19
(2015) 3.160                                             : 4.387         Sep   8
(2018) 3.270                                             : 4.630         Sep 21

Pages: [1] 2 3 4