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Messages - budmantis

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 02:53:53 PM »
Friv, yeah the weather is warm, would that be considered ridging for the later part of the forecast or not high enough pressure?
However, please refrain from quasi insulting other contributors, being harsh isn’t going to make them change their minds and it’s just going to produce more drama.


The topic/discussion is/was over, moded and resolved, why adding more and more fuel to the fire that was already more or less extinguished. Most really nasty outcomes in forums come from everyone thinking he/she has to to throw in his/her own support or bashing or opinion on personal conflicts. just let it be good, everyone can lose his/her temper for once over time, no big thing and the main trigger has been modded by Oren immediately.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 02:01:19 PM »
So I speculate that the ice thickness may be being maintained due to ice floes stacking on top of each other as they are compacted, and you demand some that I prove it with evidence, even though it was only speculation.

The primary means that sea ice thickness grows beyond the 2-3 m limit imposed by its thermal insulating characteristics (depends on air temp) is through Wintertime leads and ridges:

Quote
Hopkins, Mark A., Jukka Tuhkuri, and Mikko Lensu. "Rafting and ridging of thin ice sheets." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 104.C6 (1999): 13605-13613.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999JC900031

That is how the oldest ice in the Central Arctic Basin was able to grow to 10 or even 20 m in thickness. However, this effect due to leads + ridging does not occur during the Summer melt season, so is not a factor at this time.

Summer rotten sea ice is too weak to survive mechanical compression due to winds which, during the Winter, would lead to slabs overiding each other to form ridges, and eventually thickening of the entire ice floe via bottom melt/refreeze (which flattens the ridge and spreads out the ice, and thus even out the thickness of the entire floe).

Cheers!

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:06:00 AM »
The channels of the CAA wil get a steam cleaning over the next 10 days southeasterly and southerly winds are going to drive ice out of the north side of the channels into the Arctic while the southern sides of channels melt out completely. This pattern is worse for the CAA than Greenland because of the persistent warm southerly winds.

The ice just north of the CAA already looks like a fallen mirror shattered into tiny fragments. We'll get to see how thick it is after 10 days of getting blasted by s subcontinent sized blow dryer.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 05:00:36 AM »
I suspect that melt ponds lasted later in July before the year 2000. The thick multiyear ice would have kept its below -1.5C temperatures longer into the melt season supporting melt ponds later into the year.

I think that explains the paradox of 80N temperatures being lower after Y2k than prior to it. Melt ponds support warmer surface temperatures. An saltwater ice mixture supports negative 1.5 C temperatures at the surface.  The effects of solar heating and atmospheric heat may lead to a higher 2m temperature. The paradox is that melt ponds over thick ice support higher 2m temperatures than drained melt ponds over ice that's almost melted out.

Observe that there has been a significant dip in temperatures the past few days, but 80N to the pole is still above freezing on average.



Yes, I'm sitting in a dining room chair in North Carolina. It has been sweltering here but today we got relief from a cold front that passed through. I am very frustrated by the paucity of data out of the Arctic. I know that my hypotheses could be wrong and would like more data.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 11:52:51 PM »

You shouldn’t post here if you can’t emotionally handle being wrong.
Others have also posted images showing much rubble where the DMI model shows high sea ice thickness, certainly at odds with other models.

But, I’m sure ur just gonna reply with ur usual logical fallacies. Truly childish and rude.
Psst, Seaicesailor (edit: I mean, Mr. Potty), you just accidentally used your other handle - 'sailor' -  in your second reply. Just thought I'd let you know.
Enjoy your continued denialism of the photographed evidence. ;D ;D ;D

Troll, please don’t post on this forum anymore.

Multiple ppl called you out and pointed out images showing you that ur wrong, that DMI is performing very poorly on thickness, and your only responses are name-calling and logical fallacies.

Really not sure what your problem is, but it’s not in the spirit of collaboration on this forum. Worse is that you take advantage of the fact that Neven is absent.
ok, Mr. Seaicesailor. Your irrational tirade started just after Neven announced, so perhaps you are the one taking advantage. But you are right Sailor. I won't post here ever again Mr. Potty.
Bye.
Thomas Barlow

6
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: September 25, 2018, 09:39:48 PM »
More winning .......  ;)

U.S. Budget Deficit Swells to $898 Billion, Topping Forecast


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-13/u-s-budget-deficit-swells-to-898-billion-topping-forecast

*  The actual deficit for the first 11 months of the fiscal year is greater than the budget deficit for the entire year.

*  The actual budget deficit is 1/3 higher than the first 11 months of the prior budget year.

All that winning .......  ;)



7
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: September 17, 2018, 07:27:51 AM »

Whatever you call him, Litesong has a point.

This all started with this claim by litesong :

Quote
The Washington Post has documented 4229 lies by "don'T rump", as of Aug. 1, 2018, at a rate of 7.6 lies per day. At that given rate extrapolated to today, "don'T rump" should have lied 4571 times. However, the Washington Post reports "don'T rump" lies are up to 5000, showing that "don't rump" is getting nervous.

Which comes from here :
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/08/01/president-trump-has-made-4229-false-or-misleading-claims-in-558-days/?utm_term=.d2da3ded2a68

Which you attacked right away by questioning the credibility of the Washington Post about the war in Iraq (without giving any reference) and not addressing the subject of the comment.

If you dispute that Trump told 4229 lies as of Aug 1,2018, than please present some counter evidence that shows the Washington Post is wrong.

I checked around a bit, and Trump's record is abysmal. Here is politifact's overview :
https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/
Only 5% of his statements analyzed are labeled 'true'.

Another Psycho Troll too stupid for words.

I do try to practice Desiderata but Rob (and Litesong) make it impossible to do so.
"and listen to others,
even the dull and the ignorant;
they too have their story."
which is always a dull and the ignorant story not worth hearing, ever. Please go tell your mother, your priest or your therapist instead. I am not interested in your stupid fantasies, your ignorance, your time wasting, nor your trolling BS.

That's Lurk at his best. You should see him at his worst.

Quote
Since Hillary first appeared on the international news in 1992 I have known she lies as easily and as often as she breathes. I'm no genius but I knew Trump was a hyper-salesman, a sophist and a compulsive liar and a manipulator par excellance - his word never to be trusted - long before he ever ran for office.

If you knew that Trump was a compulsive lier, then why do you drag Hillary into your argument ?

Hillary scores a whopping 5X higher on the politico scale in telling the truth than Trump does :
https://www.politifact.com/personalities/hillary-clinton/

In fact, I challenge you to find ANY politician speaking the truth more often than Hillary Clinton.
Use politico or any other fact-checking service as your evidence, please.

Your fact-free rant about the WaPo ignored, but noted.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 18, 2018, 01:01:04 AM »
<snip, no need for sarcasm or insults; N.>

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 05:07:45 AM »
bbr, if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, against the wishes of many here who are clearly more knowledgable than yourself, shouldn't you at least post ensemble forecasts instead of operational? Not that it would make that much difference in the relatively remote likelihood that the 10-day forecasts verify, even when there is some agreement between EPS, GEFS, etc.
I didn't post 10 day forecasts, I posted intermediate imagery and included D10 as well. <snip; I have a lot of work, bbr2314, and I'd prefer to spend time with my family than on snipping your posts; N.>

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 01:09:15 AM »

Large fires create heat but they do not form in vacuums so that is not what I said, I said they are more likely to occur in extant warm / hot airmasses and then add further to their potency via lofted plumes of burning carbon, but thanks for putting another OT post in the thread trying to get the last word via misquoting me (again).

Well I may have misunderstood this comment:

I've never understood that forest fires in Siberia or elsewhere could be a knockout blow for Arctic ice. In fact, I doubt this could be the case.
Forest fires occur because of extant heat / dry conditions. They then loft enormous plumes of burning carbon into the atmosphere at extremely high temperatures (in fact they can create their own surface weather). When occurring en-masse I see no reason why plumes of smoke wouldn't compound continental heat cannons over the high Arctic where they act to enhance insolation (over areas that are by then open ocean) and reduce albedo when deposited onto the surface on the bits of ice in between.

"... compund continental heat cannons ..." ? What does that mean anyway?

In Iceland, with 10.000 km2 or so of vegetated area, a wildland fire occurs every few years (usually in moss and shrubs rather than forests since we don't really have any). This happens at fairly low temperatures, but most importantly, after prolonged dry spells. So smoke plumes from Iceland might indicate a fire burning in an air temperature of  10-15 degrees C in dry moss or shrubs.

Siberia does have vast forest much further south than Iceland. These burn as well, every now and then, and the temperature is probably quite high when this happens, but as Tor has pointed out, the smoke itself doesn't say anything about the eventual temperature of the air.
Compound continental heat cannons = make them even worse than they would be if they didn't pick up the plumes of carbon and then deposit them over the High Arctic. Heat alone is bad, as the papers cited in previous posts prove, when plumes contain smoke, they absorb even more insolation.

Also: back to the melting season, the models are now beginning to show increasingly widespread snowfalls across the northern tier of Canada and the CAA. I think something important that occurred this summer is that the CAA held up remarkably well, with thick ice remaining even in Foxe Basin (and there is even ice remaining next to Quebec's NW tip in Hudson Bay, though it is dwindling).

Combined with the soon-to-be entirely open waters of the Chukchi, Beaufort, ESS, and Laptev, this is going to focus the PV into the CAA / Northern Canada as snows begin falling. This may actually result in a delay in refreeze for the aforementioned peripheral seas now open, as the PV could become "trapped" in Northern Canada, while each successive cold shot S into North America will ultimately drift over the ATL, lofting even more oceanic heat into the High Arctic. This could translate into an early end to the melt season for parts of the CAB and the CAA, an extended melt season for all parts of the Arctic already open, and a very early winter for parts of the continents, particularly Canada.



Note how as the PV falls into Nunavut, the pinwheels of ridging / oceanic warmth into the High Arctic (Laptev in particular) are only projected to worsen. This could result in a late minimum, as the Laptev / ATL front are usually where refreeze first begins. This year, that is unlikely to be the case (it will first occur over CAA and adjacent areas of the CAB).



The EURO also agrees fairly closely with the new GFS.






11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 09:58:18 PM »
Well I think he came up with the idea that large fires warm the air, and the resulting extra warm air mass can be discerned by the smoke. But as Tor says, this belongs elsewhere.
Large fires create heat but they do not form in vacuums <snip; just stop already. JP> they are more likely to occur in extant warm / hot airmasses and then add further to their potency via lofted plumes of burning carbon <snip; just stop already. JP>

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 08:27:47 PM »
Sorry about my post. I was trying to reference A-Team's animation, and obviously got it wrong...newbie that I am

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 07:45:51 AM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

14
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 22, 2018, 05:51:23 PM »
In a leaked tape, Benjamin Netanyahu boasts about making Trump pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal. This will not make the evening news:

Actually, it did make the news. You are so ready to condemn Democrats you won't pay attention to what mainstream news reports, unless it's on one of those fringe sources you prefer.

In your defense, a lot of the better mainstream TV news is embargoed for days before it is released in Europe.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 08:24:44 AM »
The 00Z is quite interesting.

Definitely would be a game changer

16
The rest / Re: I'm a fool
« on: June 28, 2018, 07:41:12 PM »
Yes, you are a fool. It is you and your scarcity consciousness, that makes you pessimistic. Ten years, and nothing will happen. Ice gets smaller and ice gets bigger, and you feel yourself more and more stupid :)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 05:04:29 PM »
Meanwhile,

NSIDC data at 24th June says area loss has almost stopped, down to just 9k on the 24th.

Indeed total area is now just shy of half a million km2 greater than the average of the 2010's  on this date . Half a million km2 is a lot of ice, no matter how thick, with the annual average melt approaching 50% done.


That's definitely caused by spread.

fascinating ...


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 18, 2018, 06:15:36 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

Who are you? and what have you done with our Frivolous?

It's just not gonna happen. 


The models are now showing a very favorable pattern for ice retention.

With the current forecast half the ice pack will be seeing essentially no surface melting and endless cloudy skies and this is during the solar maximum.

We have never seen major ice loss with sustained like pressure over the CAB

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: June 17, 2018, 11:58:10 AM »
As expected the fast ice has reappeared in the Laptev Sea. The "torching" expands to the ESS, where some curious scribbles can now be seen. Frozen leads was the best explanation if I remember correctly.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2018, 05:53:41 AM »
JAXA Extent 10,236,731 km2(June 15, 2018)

Again,just to add to Juan's post ( I like the table, Juan):
Thanks, gerontocrat  :)
___________________________________
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

June 16th, 2018: 10,169,264 km2, a drop of -67,467 km2.
2018 is the fifth lowest on record.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 17, 2018, 03:29:35 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 16, 2018, 10:57:30 PM »
Those are albedo. Thickness GIF below. I would describe 2018 as "catastrophic". It has none of the buffer that even years like 2016 had. Everything that normally contains the cold within the CAB will be obliterated by mid July.



While #s may seem lackluster at the moment I would argue that the sequential nature of melt and the state of the current high Arctic argues that the CAB will endure a *longer* melt season than normal with *much* more oceanic heat at disposal and *much* less extant ice buffer. Things look like they are setting up to easily surpass 2012.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 06:05:04 AM »
Albedo projections from Copernicus would validate the idea that the pack is splitting into two. The uptick in extent is probably part of this happening. It will be catastrophic for volume in the short term and extent/area imminently.

By 8/1 I find it exceedingly unlikely that the two primary red remaining areas of thick ice are still a coherent mass.

I would also think that despite area #s being technically above 2016, the total amount of high-latitude ocean exposed in 2018 seems much greater (as Hudson and Kara are holding up numbers as well). This would likely lend itself to continued momentum longer in the season for critical high-latitude CAB ice given the open ocean's propensity for accumulating heat.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 04:37:39 AM »
The smos thickness is totally bunk.  It's not debateble. 

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 01:41:55 AM »
The exact details of the metrics are not important unless you are in a boat trying to avoid sea ice. What's important is how the ocean/ice/atmosphere/biosphere system is changing as GHGs add planetary heat. We are arguing over fine details about sea ice extent that are insignificant to the big picture. The amazing Greenland vortex we have seen this late spring is a very anomalous feature which our discussion is ignoring while we argue over details about extent and area that will be wiped out in a few weeks time.

The 90 pattern of winds and currents has been very efficiently transporting cold water into the Labrador sea, followed by deep convection as it mixes with warm Gulf stream water. This weather/current pattern is speeding up the rate of transport of Gulf Stream water across the temperate north Atlantic then up the coast of Norway. There has been a stunning anomalous amount of northwards heat transport in the north Atlantic over the past 90 days that will affect the Arctic for many months.

A lot of attention on Russian side of arctic but I am for one am watching the CAB for a route to sail through (and cheering for the melt).

Looks like BBQ weather has has finally arrived on the northern coast. Yes!

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:09:53 AM »
Are you saying this cyclone dropped 1000mm of precip in parts of the Arctic?  No freaking way.

Also while this is a very powerful intrusion of warm air still a large part of the Canadian Arctic Basin will stay in clouds and cold weather.

The areas most affected so far is the chuchki, ess, and now laptev is being smoked.

While the models are impressive with showing the ESS/Laptev getting totally hammered. The warm intrusion the next 2-3 days gets shunted away from the central pack before another push from the Kara/Laptev region is modeled to press poleward.

But it also gets shunted away from the CAB.

The models have picked up on a massive land based WAA event + sunny ridge over the CAA in a few days.


The ridging is still kept from the Beaufort and cab.

Things can still change.

2015 proved July can almost make up for June.

But we have essentially already parted ways with record breaking mins this year by the CAB and Beaufort seeing no surface melt essentially intoid June

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 04, 2018, 11:32:57 PM »
Meanwhile on the oceanic heat front, Mr Atlantic seems to have hit the nitrous. We have a very coherent and rapid Gulfstream flow hitting speeds near five thousand km per month. I've not before seen its like. Could be the start of a much feared but rarely mentioned superfast Gulfstream pulse that some scientists claim to have identified in the paleo record associated with major melt pulses coming out of the ice ages. Maybe there will be no Arctic winter this year.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 04, 2018, 06:37:46 AM »
Eh. We'll have the satellite data soon enough!

CMC agrees with GFS, which means we should be "game on" since it is way more reasonable re: heat. And even then, it is an absolute torch.




30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 02, 2018, 09:58:17 PM »
Not to be rude but DMI is clearly on crack. The thickness comparison with HYCOM (which has seemingly improved its algorithm/data) is beyond absurd. DMI shows 2-3M ice NE of Svalbard when satellite confirms HYCOM is clearly correct. DMI also shows no Laptev bite whatsoever.




31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 21, 2018, 06:23:59 PM »
I think the ^ images show something interesting / possibly confirm a differential in 2018 vs. the major melts of yesteryear like 2012.

2011 and especially 2012 were driven by early melt-outs of continental snowpack in conjunction with some oceanic warming. But the early melt of continental snowpack was critical, especially across North America in 2012, in allowing airmass-driven melting to begin across the Arctic far earlier than normal.

2018 is very different from these years. Our numbers are lower, but the continental situation this spring has been a literal climate away from 2011 / 2012. Forgetting comparisons versus "normal", volume of SWE and snow extent were both *massively* above 2011 and 2012. But Arctic sea ice was even lower than both of those years!

I think this has important implications as we head deeper into the melt season because the way melt is now progressing is changing. We are now seeing some muting of airmass-driven melt (at least prior to solstice, this is likely to change as continental snows melt out by July). But melt driven by increasing oceanic heat has MORE than made up for this deficit. And, surprisingly to some, this has been most apparent in areas of the pack that are very close to 90N -- namely, both the Bering, and the high ATL seas (Barents/Greenland).

The GFS et al have been far too aggressive in their depicted warmings over the Arctic in recent weeks and I think this is because snowpack has been surprisingly resistant to melt (again, this will change). But perhaps the trend so far this spring and the comparison / contrast vs. 2011 / 2012 indicate that we are likely to see much more cyclonic activity this fall, in keeping with the ever-increasing oceanic heat content? The contrast with relatively cooler continental airmasses vs the other years could mean that the gradient is even worse in 2018 / cyclones are stronger.

32
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: May 19, 2018, 09:52:51 PM »
6/1 approaches... solstice 23 days from 5/28... yet the cold remains across Quebec!

Perhaps it will take the second annual insolation spike in mid/late July to fully melt the rest out.





And perhaps Hudson Bay will retain substantial ice coverage into mid or late August? I think early August is all but guaranteed. This could also artificially inflate total sea ice #s later into summer vs normal.

SWE is now roughly double vs. normal once more, extent also high, but SWE is what's making a huge difference ATM RE: albedo as high Quebec/NWT are still *exceedingly* white looking at satellite imagery, with the only recent comparison being 2009 (IMO). HB is also still very snow-covered vs. normal.



I like 2009 as an analog / perhaps firms the chances of a moderate-strong Nino as we head into fall and 2019.

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland ice sheet retreat
« on: May 14, 2018, 10:45:40 PM »
It seems to me that the behavior of the NEGIS during the Holocene Optimum ~7.8 – 1.2 ka, provides a point of concern as to how much ice mass loss may occur for this key marine terminating ice stream in the coming decades:

Nicolaj K. Larsen et al. (14 May 2018), "Instability of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream over the last 45,000 years", Nature Communications, Volume 9, Article number: 1872, doi:10.1038/s41467-018-04312-7

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04312-7

Abstract: "The sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to prolonged warm periods is largely unknown and geological records documenting such long-term changes are needed to place current observations in perspective. Here we use cosmogenic surface exposure and radiocarbon ages to determine the magnitude of NEGIS margin fluctuations over the last 45 kyr (thousand years). We find that the NEGIS experienced slow early Holocene ice-margin retreat of 30–40 m a−1, likely as a result of the buttressing effect of sea-ice or shelf-ice. The NEGIS was ~20–70 km behind its present ice-extent ~41–26 ka and ~7.8–1.2 ka; both periods of high orbital precession index and/or summer temperatures within the projected warming for the end of this century. We show that the NEGIS was smaller than present for approximately half of the last ~45 kyr and is susceptible to subtle changes in climate, which has implications for future stability of this ice stream."

34
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: May 13, 2018, 11:05:24 PM »
Model output 28 days from solstice is..... STILL COLD


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