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Messages - Gray-Wolf

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Massive Release of Methane Gas from the Seafloor Discovered for the First Time in the Southern Hemisphere

The data was collected during three offshore expeditions in the South Atlantic Ocean in 2011, 2013, and 2014 and have recently been processed and modeled at Linnaeus University, which resulted in the publication of an article in Nature Communications.

Location map and acoustic imagery of gas flares.

Marcelo Ketzer et al. Gas hydrate dissociation linked to contemporary ocean warming in the southern hemisphere, Nature Communications (2020).

... Our multi-disciplinary and multi-scale investigation of a bottom simulating reflector (BSR) outcrop on the southern Brazilian margin allows an investigation of gas hydrate dynamics and ocean interactions over long- (millennial) to short- (decadal) scales and provides the first robust evidence from the southern hemisphere of hydrate destabilization related to contemporary climate change.

Geochemical and geophysical data, including the first autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV)-borne sub-bottom profiles of a BSR outcrop, allow us to document a massive advective flux of methane through the feather edge of the GHSZ, resulting in the formation of an elongate pockmark field associated with hundreds of water column gas flares.

The pockmarks record long-term degassing, possibly in response to stable post-glacial water temperatures, while the observed BSR outcrop is in thermodynamic disequilibrium with bottom water temperatures and the present-day edge of the GHSZ, consistent with ocean warming over several decades. Our results add to growing evidence that gas hydrate dissociation and sediment degassing related to contemporary ocean warming is a global phenomenon.

The advective flux of methane through the feather edge of the GHSZ is three orders of magnitude greater than background diffusive flux and cannot be entirely consumed by anaerobic oxidation in the sediment, challenging the assumption that the sulfate filter prevents methane from reaching the seafloor. Nonetheless, gas bubbles are inferred to dissolve within 50 m of seafloor, consistent with methane oxidisation in the water column before reaching the atmosphere.

Estimated methane leakage rates at the edge of the GHSZ on the Brazilian margin are lower than those in the northern hemisphere, and indicate that hydrate dissociation may be an important process in the global carbon cycle and the Earth’s climate in a long-term (e.g. 103 years) perspective.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 01:46:22 PM »
IF GFS has got it right, the remains of Hurricane Laura will be entering the Central Arctic next Thursday.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 01:05:30 PM »
DMI 80 still going up. Melting season is getting longer before and after it seems.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 27, 2020, 05:35:23 PM »
Congratulations Gray-Wolf! :) Very glad for you to be able to (this quick) realise your goal and dream I guess because now you can start another path. A path full of other people and personal exploration and satisfaction. May your boat steer into good waters.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 12:29:48 PM »
Talked to my guardian today.
His daughter dodged a hit northeast of her.

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: August 27, 2020, 11:45:35 AM »
New paper is available now, feel free to ask any question about it.

High overall rates of permafrost cliff retreat, coupled with spatial variability, have been accompanied by increased uncertainty over future landscape dynamics. We map long‐term (>80 years) retreat of the shoreline and photogrammetrically analyze historic aerial imagery to quantify the processes at a permafrost coast site with massive ground ice. Retreat rates have been relatively constant but topographic changes show that subsidence is a potentially critical but often ignored component of coastal sensitivity, exceeding landward recession by over 3 times during the last 24 years. We calibrate novel passive seismic surveys along clear and variable exposures of massive ground ice and then spatially map key sub‐surface layers. Combining decadal patterns of volumetric change with new ground ice variation maps enables past trends to be interpreted, future volumetric geomorphic behavior to be better constrained, and improves the assessment of permafrost coast sensitivity and the release of carbon‐bearing material.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 08:33:49 AM »
Landfall at 150 mph according to the NHC:

100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020


LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W

Plus the associated power outages have begun:

There are 109,811 outages across Louisiana at the moment.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 03:18:50 AM »

With winds of 150 miles (241 kilometers) per hour, Laura is just 7 mph short of the most powerful storm category possible, and it’s matching the previous record breaker Lost Island Hurricane of 1856. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches the northwest U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast overnight, the National Hurricane Center said. It’s coming with more power than Hurricane Harvey had when it made landfall in Texas in 2017.

The stretch of coastline that will feel Laura’s impact accounts for about a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity and half of North America’s production of ethylene, a key plastic raw material, according to Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, not to mention newly built liquefied natural gas export terminals. The rapid growth of petrochemical facilities over the past decade, fueled by the U.S. shale boom, has raised the potential for fatalities, as well as vast financial and environmental damage.

The storm could cause as much as $25 billion in damage and economic losses, Watson said. The destruction to refineries could cost $5 billion alone.

One major concern is that violent wind and storm surge could inundate Superfund sites, dislodging contaminated soil and spreading toxic deposits throughout the nearby communities.

About 64 crude oil and refined product tankers are in the western U.S. Gulf waiting on Hurricane Laura to pass, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 27, 2020, 12:52:27 AM »
:thumbs up:

Cruel Ways to Troll Guitar Center: Bass Guitar Edition at  Paranormal Guitar Channel


Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 27, 2020, 12:11:19 AM »
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.
A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.

That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.

I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.

I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 26, 2020, 01:46:21 AM »
There is a problem on the ASIF Forum, like most forums on the internet from the use of Standard English, working class peasants like myself get hassle on the scientific/political debates on forums due to there Standard English posts like they should not even bother posting, usually from want to be middle class forum members, as the real middle class will usually be reasonable on the forum. It is not ignorance lack of knowledge is they do not know mostly.
I seriously doubt that's true. My English is a lot better than most, but I don't look down on others who don't express themselves as well as I can.

How can I? A lot of people on this forum are using English as their second, third, even fourth language. I'm only fluent in one. I have enormous respect for people who go out of their way to make life easier for me :)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 25, 2020, 05:50:55 PM »
Thanks for the Jurassic Park reference, GW...Jeff Goldbloom is a gem!

Even short of a new mutation, it is pretty clear that kids above 10 years old can transmit the disease, even when it doesn't often kill them. And of course the adults that supervise the kids will also be coming together in buildings that are often poorly ventilated. And all are going back to homes, often with people with even greater risks.


Tom wrote: "Maybe September will start fairly good then deteriorate?" Quite likely, with case surges preceding death surges by a few weeks, though with this population and with better treatment, etc, the death surge should be a bit shallower proportionately than earlier waves.

We had 27 cases clearly traceable back to the motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota a few weeks ago. So to in other states around SD. That was about half a million jerks, errr, people. :)

And they were mostly outside, where it is much harder to transmit this virus.

How many millions of kids, young adults, and their teachers, custodians... will be hording into poorly ventilated indoor spaces in the coming weeks in the US?

Our local university just announced that they are canceling earlier plans to have some classes at least partly face to face (hybrid model) in favor of all online, at least for the first few weeks of class.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 25, 2020, 02:29:30 AM »
This is an amazing place and I have no idea why we have all gone bonkers lately.
Could it be stress from the Lockdowns and other crises this year?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 24, 2020, 06:22:36 PM »
An article that at least says that there are more known unknowns than known knowns.
Hi Gerontocrat!

I take it you listened to our medical officers reassuring parents that going back to school will not be an issue for the kids?

Again I have to ask why we would not expect this 'hard to infect' demographic to force mutations that aid infection in minors to become the main strain circulating in that community?

Of course the 'Powers that Be' wouldn't lie to us would they?
I listened but did not hear the words an issue for most of the kids. Teachers, cleaners, teaching assistants? I heard no words at all. *******

I read somewhere that there are 4 main variations on the theme floating around the world already. Viruses are really good at mutating.

I cycle past the youngsters queuing outside the current in "pubs" on Friday Saturday evening in our local town. If that's social distancing then....

At the moment even if they get it most youngsters will not suffer too badly. But when they get home.....?

Our "Powers That Be" never lie to us, though they have been known to be "economical with the truth".

I was sad to read about your devastating personal experience with H1N1. There are no words.
On all things educational I strongly recommend the following..
The education secretary’s handling of the A-levels results has all the hallmarks of Johnsonian government. He’ll probably get promoted

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: August 22, 2020, 06:12:39 PM »
It took our walnut tree 6 years, but this year it is bearing nuts for the first time. Only four or five, mind you, and we have no idea whether they are any good. A friend of ours gave the tree as a sapling, having sprouted near an adult walnut tree.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 20, 2020, 02:34:37 PM »

Bow to your god

Interesting to see what Santa gets up to in the off-season.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 19, 2020, 11:43:56 PM »
The forcing that our unfettered capitalism (under the neolib elites) is placing upon both Society & the Virus might lead to us finally freeing ourselves from that yolk (due to the unnecessary losses we are suffering..... so their stocks/shares don't?) and so may have a chance at the scale of changes needed (across our World?) to best mitigate against both AGW and the Novel Virus?

Hope springs eternal eh?

I've replied to this part in the Lessons thread.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 10:36:13 PM »
A moderator should put a stop to your abuse.

I agree, I've snipped the last few posts.

To go back on topic, ie Forum Decorum:

everyone should be moderated , without exception

I agree. Moderators should be able to moderate me, given that I often fail to moderate myself when writing in a bad/depressed mood. In the COVID discussion, I could have been moderated when lashing out at Blum, Archimid and Martin Gisser (Florifulgurator), even though it was a reaction to stuff they could have been moderated for as well.

What should not be moderated - I feel - is stuff that goes against the grain. I know that there's a broad agreement between politics, media and a large part of the educated population with regard to SARS-CoV-2 and policy surrounding it. That doesn't mean that when I or anyone else criticizes aspects of it (the fear-inducing, the exaggerated amount of attention, the consequences of lockdown, the erroneousness of incomplete data, etc), this should be automatically moderated. If only for the fact that many things are very much unknown, and so there's a wide range of possible opinions.

I know I'm walking a fine line when it comes to SARS-CoV-2, but I don't feel that I have crossed it to the point where some 'truth commission' or 'factchecking team' needs to step in and start erasing stuff. This is dangerous for the simple fact that we know that vested interests have an enormous influence over official narratives , and subsequently over the boundaries of accepted debate.

Where I do go wrong, is when I'm writing in anger and lash out at people. If someone moderates that, I will most certainly not take away their mod powers.

Either way, I'm not posting in the COVID-thread any longer. Maybe that's some kind of trade-off, even if I deem Blumenkraft's dramatic exit entirely unnecessary.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 19, 2020, 07:54:57 PM »
Quote from: Gray-Wolf
as an aside I lost my Father & Son to H1N1 [Swine Flu] in 2010 & 11' and I was left with this barsteward 'Post Viral Syndrome'
Jesus! Those were bad times Gray, you have my sympathy. I wish that your syndrom is not too debilitating and disabling. To add, I think your posts are of a high quality. Nice to see you posting more.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:59:26 PM »
Polarstern seems intent on taking a close look at the North Pole in the near future:

Didn't take them long ...

Scientists on Arctic Mission Make Unplanned Detour to Pole

BERLIN (AP) — A German icebreaker carrying scientists on a year-long international expedition in the high Arctic has reached the North Pole, after making an unplanned detour because of lighter-than-usual sea ice conditions.

Expedition leader Markus Rex said Wednesday the RV Polarstern was able to reach the geographic North Pole because of large openings in sea ice that would normally make shipping in the region above Greenland too difficult.

“We made fast progress in a few days,” Rex told The Associated Press. “It’s breathtaking — at time we had open water as far as the eye could see.” ...

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 19, 2020, 04:14:28 PM »
Just to echo gerontocrat's appreciation for Blumenkraft . No one cared more for the ASIF and it's continued success at informing and recording . This was why he stepped up when Neven called for help and again for Gerontocrat .
He did make the mistake of thinking everyone should be moderated , without exception .
Blumenkraft thought Neven needed moderation . He pm'd his fellow mods , an unwise move . I feared the outcome would be exactly as happened .
There were no goings-on behind Freegrass's back .

  As others have said , everyone and the forum lost ..


The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 19, 2020, 01:39:11 PM »
It is always better to wash one's dirty linen in private. As has been said already, any visitor reading the forum decorum thread would be likely to think - what the shit is all this?.

& don't be surprised if some of that stuff ends up quoted on an unfriendly website. There are, I am sure, not a few who would love to see the ASIF wounded or even destroyed.

So, is there any way a thread can be locked to restrict access to registered members only ?

It is is possible, I would do the same for the covid-19 thread, and probably as the US election gets near, a lot of the politics stuff. (& maybe the suggestions thread as well).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:09:22 AM »

The fundraising was very successful! I never imagined we can pull this kind of thing off, but here we are. I want to thank everyone. You folks are just awesome! Of course, the GoFundMe page will stay up for a little since it's not even up for 24h (we are not even around the globe with this).

I will hand over the campaign page to Gero later for him to withdraw the funds.

When the GoFundMe site is offline and you still have some spare bucks, please follow Juans advice and donate to the forum.

I'm humbled and honored to be a part of this awesome community.

Special thanks to Be Cause and Greylib!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 06:10:17 AM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,

Gerontocrat: Congratulations that you got a new laptop & it is great that you accepted the gift. The ASIF would not be the same without you!

An now, I invite everybody to think on Neven. He has been running this place and the ASIB for 10+ years. I don't know how much it has cost, but I am sure that it has been expensive to develop and maintain.

To donate, you have to go to Neven's ASIB and click on "Support & donate" on the circle on the right side.

Thanks! We are a great team!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:47:21 PM »
I am overwhelmed and touched by the generosity of spirit of so many of you.

The fund has reached its goal.

I hope you will see me posting again pretty soon.

Thanks again,


Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 24, 2020, 12:51:00 PM »
A key question is how much hysteresis the arctic will exhibit. Is there an amount of melt, early enough in a given season, past which the system cannot recover? Can enough ice melt, exposing enough open water to insolation, and giving the opportunity for mixing to bring heat up, such that the next freeze season simply can't repair the damage?

If a BOE is a fleeting phenomenon for a few days in September, and the following freeze season can essentially reset the system, then a BOE is just a point on a continuum of damage. (The slow transition theory postulates that so much heat would be lost to space during the arctic night after a big melt season that the system can robustly reset after a big melt). If a BOE for a few days represents a hole out of which arctic ice cannot climb, then it is a tipping point.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: July 20, 2020, 04:51:57 PM »
Andrew Dessler understands that it is not alarmist to be alarmed about something that is alarming (like the potential for an 'Ice Apocalypse' this century):

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 12, 2020, 06:32:31 PM »
“A spectacular cosmic display of C/2020 F3, Comet #NEOWISE in the early morning, predawn sky.”
Photo below.  Others at the link.
East-Northeast pre-dawn sky from the mid-Atlantic U.S. coast area. This was taken around 4am ET.

Starting Sunday, stargazers will be able to see it in the evening. After sunset, look for the comet toward the northwest, just below the Big Dipper.

How to see Comet Neowise, now visible to naked eye, according to AccuWeather - 6abc Philadelphia
Stargazers are in for a treat -- a newly discovered comet is visible in the July night sky.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: June 29, 2020, 02:54:35 PM »
Most of the Gulf of Mexico is at 27.5-28C which is kinda average for this time of year. Not yet at a temperature likely to promote extreme rapid intensification. Similar temperatures exist along the Atlantic coast from mid-Florida up to NC.

My Florida peeps have been complaining about the heat and the local waters are reflecting that. The Eastern third of the Gulf has increased by 1C+ in the last week. There is now a 30C path from the western Dominican Republic to Tampa Bay.

The Gulfstream is also warming considerably on the east coast. Any storm near Florida would have plenty of heat to work with.

Some small disturbances with low probability of development are about. Nothing noteworthy at this point. The drying impact of the Saharan dust should be abating.

Ada Monzón (@adamonzon)6/22/20, 8:30 AM
8 am: Preliminary measurements from #SaharanDust in #PuertoRico are between 350-380 ug/m3 (PM10) and AQI estimated 173-237: VERY UNHEALTHY.
According to Dr. Olga Mayol, @UPR_Oficial this is a historic event in PR, unseen in 50-60 years. Image from #Villalba Osvaldo Burgos. 

Massive Sahara Dust Plume Headed for Southeastern US, Could Bring Sensational Sunsets

A large cloud of Saharan dust will blanket the southeast next week, making for dry weather and beautiful sunsets.

.. Right now the cloud is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to drift over the U.S. by next Tuesday, the Houston Chronicle reported. It will most likely sap some of the humidity from the air, the Chronicle said.

... "The dust is the visible part of the reduced tropical development potential area," Myers said. "It is the dry air and additional vertical wind shear along with the dust that are the driving factors in limiting tropical storm development."

"The dust signifies a very dry layer in the atmosphere, and hurricanes don't like dry air," reports Michigan's MLive.

Moreover, the dry spell could linger for a week or so after the cloud disseminates, MLive said.

The forecast through next week is for a series of high-pressure systems over the Gulf and Atlantic to act as a conveyor belt, steering the dust into Texas through the June 19-21 period

'I've never experienced this before. It's a disaster'

Extreme storm in Calgary, Canada.

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: June 12, 2020, 07:39:27 AM »
From the ASLR thread:

The linked reference indicates that:

"… current estimates of additional global warming from the permafrost carbon feedback are too low.

J. C. Bowen, C. P. Ward, G. W. Kling and R. M. Cory (09 June 2020), "Arctic amplification of global warming strengthened by sunlight oxidation of permafrost carbon to CO2", Geophysical Research Letters,

Once thawed, up to 15% of the ∼1,000 Pg of organic carbon (C) in arctic permafrost soils may be oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2100, amplifying climate change. However, predictions of this amplification strength ignore the oxidation of permafrost C to CO2 in surface waters (photomineralization). We characterized the wavelength dependence of permafrost dissolved organic carbon (DOC) photomineralization and demonstrate that iron catalyzes photomineralization of old DOC (4,000‐6,300 a BP) derived from soil lignin and tannin. Rates of CO2 production from photomineralization of permafrost DOC are two‐fold higher than for modern DOC. Given that model predictions of future net loss of ecosystem C from thawing permafrost do not include the loss of CO2 to the atmosphere from DOC photomineralization, current predictions of an average of 208 Pg C loss by 2299 may be too low by ~14%.

Plain Language Summary
The thawing of organic carbon stored in arctic permafrost soils, and its oxidation to carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas), is predicted to be a major, positive feedback on global warming. However, current estimates of the magnitude of this feedback do not include the oxidation of permafrost soil organic carbon flushed to sunlit lakes and rivers. Here we show that ancient dissolved organic carbon (> 4,000 years old) draining permafrost soils is readily oxidized to carbon dioxide by sunlight. As a consequence, current estimates of additional global warming from the permafrost carbon feedback are too low.

the consequences of our little 72 hour storm over the weekend have been serious . This week the sky has been filled with the cries of the rooks swirling manically . I guessed there must be trouble . I passed under the trees yesterday and where there were 43 busy nests full of half grown young there is nothing but the remnants of 2 empty nests . The dog that harvested the bounty falling from the skies may not survive either .. 100+half feathered chicks would test anythings constitution .
  Too late to start again , it is the first time i have known a rookery to have a total fail . this has likely been repeated throughout the country . b.c.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 21, 2020, 11:48:38 AM »
Midland, Michigan and more:

Aging Dams, Changing Climate: A Dangerous Mix | Weather Underground
The failure of two dams near Midland, Michigan, led to a flooding catastrophe Wednesday—one that highlighted the U.S. peril from the neglect of hundreds of aging dams coupled with the rise in intensified precipitation extremes from human-produced climate change.

falta manutenção

Many years ago I worked in an extremely impoverished ex Portuguese colony. Things often didn't work. When asked why, the standard answer was, yes, you've guessed it "Lacks Maintenance".
The country got loads of multilateral development assistance - but not one cent for maintenance. e.g. Shiny air-conditioned new schools, but no money for electricity, and no money for books.

In the US ageing dams can now be added to the "falta manutenção" list, that includes:
- roads,
- bridges,
- public hospitals,
- public schools,
- flood defences,
- gas pipelines,
- water systems,
- electricity grid.

Taxes in mainland Europe are much higher than in the USA, but not purely to give the undeserving poor handouts. Some goes to maintaining the infrastructure on which the economic, physical and social well-being of countries depend. The UK in recent years has done its best to catch up with the US in implementing "falta manutenção".

There is now loads of blah blah about developing resilience to combat the effects of climate change, and the opportunity for a post-covid green new deal. The dam failures are just another example of the way climate change is going to expose to daylight the rotten state of so much of that on which we depend.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 06, 2020, 11:18:02 AM »
The fear is only in your mind.

Listen to me, our children may die if they contract COVID-19. Isn't that enough? Next, you'll be providing more context, explaining how chances are extremely rare and that there are hundreds of other diseases our children may die of every day, if they're extremely unlucky. That's not going to help us take this catastrophic crisis seriously, especially you know, 'those people' that are always selfish. And don't you care about those poor children who get it?

Saying that the fear is in my mind. Tsk. In the last 24 hours two persons died from/with COVID-19 in Austria! That's the first thing they tell me on the news every day. This disease is ferocious, you hear? Fear the second wave! It'll be a silent tsunami of corpses!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 29, 2020, 02:33:37 PM »
It will be interesting to see if area drops below 2016 over the next few days, which considering how much vulnerable ice there is in peripheral seas, shouldn't be hard.
Interesting indeed, but needs to be observed in conjunction with data about ongoing cloud cover (or lack of) over said peripheral seas. There are two factors we expect to play a big role in the process - vulnerable state of ice and clean air, and yet they both are minimized when/where there is no sunlight present over any given peripheral sea, roughly speaking. Thus i'd say it's not just "if" area drops or not, - it's "if" area drops in those seas which are any well soaked in direct sunlight.

And to me it's also very interesting to see if we'll have more such areas than usual. Current weather / vortex effects of course overrides, but there is now that general effect of way less nuclei in clouds - so bigger water droplets / snowflakes, means precipitation should deplete clouds faster.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 17, 2020, 01:46:33 PM »
The over-reaction was fine, I've said it before. But now there is more data, and efforts must be made to reduce the over-reaction. Because the narrative of death, fear and panic is very dangerous on a psychological level.

Mind you, there is a difference between Europe and the US, given the difference in timing. Never mind the fact that the US is a third world banana republic which is facing much larger problems than the clown in the White House.

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 12, 2020, 05:08:00 PM »
Welcome on board, dear new Moderators. I wish you all the best and I fully trust and support you. You can reach me if necessary.

Of course I was Member 1 on this forum. First I wrote some lines, and I still do about expeditions and crazy people venturing up there in the North, but now I'm mainly a reader - when I'm not overwhelmed with information.

I only manage the technical stuff (smart and cheap solutions only, usually work on their own...), and every time I was asked or tempted to moderate I would probably have messed things badly - Neven always made good and wise decisions.

Most of us had guessed that Neven would get tired some day. Life, family, work... things move on and we all have to change and adapt. I'm very grateful and admirative and thankful for the huge work he has made in this place, a second home for many of us. Again, thank you Neven - you made the right decision. And, just enjoy being quiet!

Dears members, dear readers, it's not an end - just a new start. Enjoy this forum, enjoy life, vita brevis!

(and I confirm that only Neven and I can see your IPs. But I'm an expert on Privacy, so it should be ok)

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 09:08:19 PM »
I haven’t commented, in a way, because I am shocked with the news.

The true is that I don’t have the time to offer myself to take Neven’s job, nor the knowledge. So, I will not offer myself to do it, not even as part of a group. But I am sure that there are several people here that can take control of the ASIF.

Neven. We thank you for all the work you have done. You did it Great!!! I also think that you should stay as the administrator, not as only a member. Even if you don’t do any work for several months and/or years.

Thanks a lot!!!

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 04:40:51 PM »
Well .. 3 big cheers for what Neven has accomplished with ASIF and another 3 big cheers for him being prepared to hand over the reins .
Been here myself since 2013 , having been banned for standing up for nature elsewhere :) . ASIF became my go-too every day very quickly . I've always cared to be informed and (rarely) to inform . It has been my door to most other sites I visit .
while I felt Neven a bit too tolerant , I would be happy to volunteer to ensure BL was not too intolerant :) . I have no idea of how else I might help but am certainly willing to ..

I would suggest that the political threads might be hived off and someone like GSY take rein there .. they deserve a life but I for one would be happy to see them gone .. or not .

There are and have been many who would be capable of group management of this wonderful little realm we have forumed ( :) ) between us all  .. b.c.

ps .. welcome back gandul .. :)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 08, 2020, 02:24:40 AM »
Here is why Jacinda Ardern is one of my heroes.

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it.

It is possible to beat this virus. Doing so requires wisdom and diligence. New Zealand is now one of the few success cases.

The US due to the actions of many though not all the States has greatly reduced the growth rates. New York and Washington in particular have made great strides. These are as yet far from success. But they are better. That shows up as the current confirmed infection count now being five days behind my projection based on the rates two weeks ago. Those rates will likely slow more.

However, this is only a slowing. This is in no way success. Once the people tire enough of the restrictions and begin to venture out more, the viral transmission will again rise. This will cause the infections to continue for the long term, requiring ongoing shelter in place for month after month after month, destroying the economy in the process. And the longer this goes on, the greater the chance that the virus mutates into an even more virulent and/or an even more lethal form.

If this problem is to be solved, either solutions like those used in China, New Zealand, or possibly South Korea (though that is less successful), OR herd immunity will be required. Achieving herd immunity while not overwhelming the hospitals means that we stay under the current restrictions for at least another year, and possibly as long as two years. That means economic suicide for businesses large and small, for individuals, and for the nation.

Worse though, achieving herd immunity means that a tremendous number of our neighbors will sicken and die.

Just how long will it take our moron in chief to understand this? That’s a rhetorical question. He is entirely incapable of ever understanding or accepting that. Neither is he able or likely willing to understand the necessity of following the path Jacinda has lain out. Moreover, there is no way in hell that he will follow a woman’s lead. So we are stuck here until he is out of office. And that means an ongoing large death toll month after month until then.


.... and it begins.

A ‘Liberty’ Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders

Stupid is as stupid does.     This is why we can’t have nice things.

But then on the success side of the ledger...

China lifts 76-day lockdown on Wuhan as city reemerges from coronavirus crisis

Eleven weeks of lockdown - then recovery.

Addenda: This is not going to resolve as Dr. Fauci thinks or wants to optimistically believe. He is being foolish or self-deluded. This bug is as contagious as Chicken Pox. If we fail to eradicate it or totally contain it, it will immediately come roaring back. This is an extremely dangerous biosafety level 3 agent.

Under current strategies. Schools will not reopen in the fall. Neither will businesses.

The models are wrong in showing a peak then a decline to zero. They only go to zero, because the modelers included on-going highly effective controls in their models. You only get a decline to zero if you achieve herd immunity, or you maintain conditions that prevent transmission sufficiently to accomplish the same AND you do extensive contact tracing and isolation BEFORE releasing controls. Do anything less and it comes right back.

Worse, we do not yet know how long immunity to this bug lasts. The history from SARS1 suggests two years on average with a weak immunity in year three. But, some people exhibit a weaker immune response and can contract it again almost immediately.

This thing is not going to just “be around” as Dr. Fauci suggests, it is a violent virulent predator waiting for us to let our guard down in the least to devour people and ravage the nation - again.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 07, 2020, 08:07:14 PM »
I'm fine with discussing conspiracy theories, but can we drop the silly 'communist this and that'? I know that left-leaning people are conditioned to go hysteric about Russia, and right-leaning people have to do the same now when it's about Chinese commies, but it's all a circus. If there really is a common enemy to be had, concentrated wealth is the only serious candidate.

Seriously though, I don't think "Earlier pandemics caused economic disruption" is a particularly compelling refutation of my thesis, which is "Rampant globalism has made the world economy more vulnerable than one with simpler, more local supply chains." I, for one, sincerely hope that relocalization is part of the recovery process from this pandemic (as the Le Monde piece stipulates). You can continue to root for more globalism and consumerism.

The Lessons from COVID-19 thread was created for discussions of this kind.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:00:37 AM »
This is a horrible pandemic.
We must look back to the 1918 influenza to grasp its severity. 

And, our focus should be on the science rather than the blame.

We may never forget those who've failed,  but we must also move on, and right now. 

Support your local healthcare workers if you can.   If the doctors die... what have we???

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 02:46:55 AM »
Thanks Sam , even for your outrage . Here we have our own nightmare .. Boris 'butcher' Johnson with Dominic Cummings all over him , advising that the loss of a few pensioners would be no bad thing . Result .   b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 01:32:26 AM »

I won’t upstage you by posting the links to the breaking news stories. Actually I am steaming just a little too much to do it. ....

The chief turd after two months of delay and denial, deflection, insults and harangues, and a near endless stream of self serving lies now finally tells the US today to prepare for a terrible two weeks, and potentially 100k-240k deaths.

As you all here know I have been projecting far worse than that for quite literally months now. This wasn’t a surprise. This wasn’t unexpected. This wasn’t unavoidable. This is a Trumpian induced catastrophe. It took Trumpian levels of gross incompetence to kill this many Americans. Other nations have their own equivalents.

I am disgusted in the extreme. I said before that the data and numbers would ultimately tell the tale. Well, we are nearly there. And even now, finally saying the catastrophe will be enormous, they are still grossly downplaying the reality, the horror, of what is about to happen.

Worse, they are gaslighting everyone by showing their pretty (but entirely wrong) Gaussian projections of 1.5 - 2.2 million deaths (that they never shared before) flattening out to 100k-240k with the implication that they did great things to reduce the death toll. But they cannot even keep their story straight. Dr. Birx stands in front of that chart. And separately another chart with a fat right tail from the actual (but still horribly wrong) models. Those wrongly show the case counts going to zero sometime in June or early July.

What is it? Two weeks? No. 30 days? No. Two months? No. Two and a half? Still No!  They cannot even keep their gaslighting story straight.

Fuck you Donald Trump. You did no such thing. Any reduction came from the States acting on their own independently of you and your stooges, with daily and even hourly opposition, stonewalling, deflection, and impedements from you personally and from your administration, fighting you every fucking step of the way. 

And yes, even now, at this very last moment they could save millions of lives if they would just face the truth honestly and act swiftly. They cannot do it. They cannot bring themselves to do it. All they know how to do is double down on PR and lies. Burn in hell bastards.

Be safe everyone. Keep your loved ones and friends safe, safe as you can. Duck. Duck now. The shit is beginning to hit the fan in a big bad way.

For any of you who are first responders or critical staff in any role - THANK YOU! in advance for the risks you are takling for all the rest of us.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 12:40:51 PM »
Let's see how this herd immunity thing works out for him.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 05:52:39 AM »

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.

It was the numbers coming out of NYC that shattered whatever preconceptions I'd had.
I hate to admit it but I don't remember where you're from. The perspective from a state which is locked down is probably very different than the view from an open state that hasn't taken much of a hit yet.

When I hear of Musk making great progress here or there I'm forced to remember that he'd be jailed here for the same actions. I don't expect much from Florida, Texas or Nevada - but California should be standing up, shutting him down, and fining him for every minute that he's putting people's lives in danger.
He's a multiheaded Typhoid Mary.

My friends locked up their shops because it was the right thing to do, and because they'd be in big trouble if they didn't. Pandemic Profiteer has a nice ring to it & it is alliterative.

If the US and Europe hope to survive this more or less intact they need to enforce national laws that can break the back of this, or similar diseases. One scofflaw that breaks ranks can ruin a multi Billion dollar quarantine.
The Americans have RICO Laws in place and a frankly terrifying history of asset seizure. I'm unsure if Europe or German law has anything similar.

Stay Isolated. Stay angry at those who negate your efforts.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 02:57:01 AM »

No down side. I am now having to advise friends who have tested positive and who are running 102.5F fevers to bloody well get to the hospital.

There are vastly more people symptomatic in the US than the confirmed numbers show. The US is in the deep end of the muck. Trump brought the swamp to DC with him, and his swamp creatures are killing us.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
.. ^^^ maybe a few floods here 'n' there ?  b.c.
I've got a chainsaw. Shall we start building?

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