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Messages - Gray-Wolf

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 17, 2020, 05:35:50 PM »
I appreciate your feelings for the vulnerability of our young ones.

The Youth Journal is a nation-wide highly praised newsprogram for children and they wouldn't put anything inappropriate on for children.
I have to say though, that I think you underestimate children and I think it is important to tell the truth of the matter and not disneyfy it. Children can handle a lot if it is introduced and put in a clear context and shared with others.
The images I have seen on the Guardian are not too disturbing for children I think.

Abuse is something totally different in my understanding.

Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: January 17, 2020, 06:05:45 AM »
We have high temperature superconductors. What we need is room temperature superconductors.

Room temp is the holy grail, but at least one of the articles mentioned very high temperatures.
If this process is cheap and easily reproducible it's a gigantic game changer, if they can raise the temperature to 0C, the world changes damn near overnight.


The linked editorial reminds us how fragile the Thwaites Glacier is, given that the subglacial cavity at the base of the Thwaites Ice Tongue lost about 13bn tonnes of ice within a three-year period; and the article notes that: "Thwaites will surely now deteriorate faster."

Title: "The Guardian view on an ice-sheet collapse: threatening the world’s coasts"

Extract: "The rate of Thwaites’s disintegration has alarmed scientists for good reason. In a handful of decades it could retreat to the point that collapse becomes inevitable and irreversible. That would lock us into a future sea level rise of far more than half a metre or so. The reason is simple: today, Thwaites is a brake on large inland glaciers. Lose Thwaites, and those it holds back will follow. Over centuries perhaps, they would add fully 2m to sea level rise.

Nearly 100 scientists and support staff recently arrived at Thwaites, a place as inhospitable as Earth can muster, for an urgent and ambitious field expedition. Among the British and American teams are scientists, engineers and technicians who have set up tents on Thwaites ice shelf, the slab of glacier that has slipped off the Antarctic bedrock on to the sea. They have now set up a hot water drill to bore through the 600m shelf into the frigid waters beneath. It is a process that takes days, with small teams working nonstop around the clock.

Why drill down? With the borehole open, the researchers will winch down a torpedo-shaped robotic submarine called Icefin. It will slip into the depths and make for the grounding line, where the base of the glacier lifts off the land. There it will inspect a grim discovery that Nasa scientists made some months back. Flying over the glacier on a plane fitted with ice-penetrating radar, they spotted a gigantic hole at the base of Thwaites. At 4km wide and 10km long, it is two-thirds the area of Manhattan. The 350m-tall cavern formed over three years when 13bn tonnes of ice melted away. Water had found its way between the glacier’s rough base and the bedrock to melt it, unnoticed, from below. Thwaites will surely now deteriorate faster.

It is a stark reminder that for all the observations and sophisticated climate models that scientists produce, nature can still serve up unwelcome surprises. The fact is that we are ill-equipped to model precisely a global system as devilishly complex as the climate. If we don’t know every detail – every process, every threshold, and the direction and strength of every feedback loop – we must always expect surprises. This might be the lesson of Thwaites glacier. In both the US and the UK – the countries behind the expedition – science is in peril. The Royal Society warns that Britain is losing top scientists amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. In the US, the administration has set itself against science, particularly in environmental disciplines, and scores of researchers have quit their posts. If Thwaites tells us anything, it is that we need more science, not less, to survive the climate crisis. Without it, we will not understand the full threat we face, nor be well placed to mitigate its most dangerous consequences. If we want to avoid more unwelcome surprises, we must not let our guard down."

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 15, 2020, 04:03:29 PM »
Mississippi River expected to rapidly rise as dam threatens to fail
By Jamiel Lynch and Steve Almasy, CNN - Updated 7:35 AM ET, Wed January 15, 2020
According to National Weather Service forecasts, the Mississippi River is expected to reach flood stage at the Arkansas City, Arkansas, and Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez, Mississippi, gages by mid-January.

Extensive rain has extended flood warnings down the banks of the river about 700 miles. Daily rainfall records were broken Tuesday in Jackson, Meridian and Vicksburg, Mississippi. Jackson saw 4.5 inches, breaking the previous record of 1.48, Meridian had 2.06 inches breaking a 1.13 inch record and Vicksburg received 3.5 inches of rain after a .94 inch record.

The Oktibbeha County Lake Dam in eastern Mississippi is in imminent danger of failing and officials are warning residents to be ready to leave, county emergency management Director Kristen Campanella said Tuesday.
2019 had significant Mississippi River flooding, and it looks like 2020 may be a repeat.

To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

This bit about the Australian fire season seems relevant to this thread

"Another contributing factor has been a “rare phenomenon called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that took place in Antarctica”, noted the Times. Back in September, “winds circling the South Pole about 30km high in the stratosphere went into reverse causing the temperature of the stratosphere to rocket by 40C”, the article explained.

This “added to the hot dry conditions by shifting the westerly winds, which usually lurk over the Southern Ocean, up onto the continent”, said ABC News.

SSW events, which also occur in the northern hemisphere, are “rare in the southern hemisphere with only one major event ever identified, in 2002”, noted another ABC News piece."

Source:, 7 January 2020
Media reaction: Australia’s bushfires and climate change

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:37:50 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 01:36:24 PM »
If they lied about climate change to preserve their profits, they need to pay. If they never engaged in denial or even better, they are looking for solutions, then they are innocent.

The problem of making the world sustainable is no one's fault because it is everyone's fault. However, those that delayed the transition through deceit and for-profit must pay. I have no problem with those who profit without deceit, as they are just playing by the rules or those who deceive without profit because they are just useful idiots.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 12:57:38 PM »
Liars who profited from their lies about climate change and officials with sworn duties who lied to their people about climate change need to face justice, like Nazis. An example must be made.

So utterly exhausted by alarmism.

I'm much more exhausted by the increasing disasters. They will only get worse. It's like compound interest in reverse.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 12:15:27 PM »
It's not going to kill everybody on the planet

Tell me, what makes you so sure of it? I would really like to know. From my perspective, there is nothing holding a habitable climate together, other than accumulated luck of a favorable climate for a long time.

We are changing that luck induced climate in ways no one can possibly understand.

99.9999% of all species ever have gone extinct. What makes you so sure we are different? Why should a climate change of a magnitude greater than all mass extinctions before of us not result in the extinction of humans? Have you considered the wars this will bring in your calculations?

It is 100% reasonable to fear for your personal life in the face of climate change. It is the logical, and natural response.  Is it cool, reassuring or comfortable? NO. And it shouldn't be. Fear is what activates the human defenses and fear of climate change is 100% acceptable as long as you follow rule number one. Don't Panic.

That said, being glad for what climate change will indiscriminately bring is just really bad karma. Like Tom said, Freegrass, you are using the internet. Like all of us, you are guilty of exerting too much change over the world. So if we judge you by the same measure as you judge these people. we should be glad when climate change hits you too. I won't be. Like almost everyone else, you are a victim of the circumstances.

The people who are to blame are people who profited from lying about climate change (fraud) and officials who grossly neglected their duties by hiding climate change from the public. they must be used to set an example out of them and launch every other living person on this planet on a path to climate change action.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 19, 2019, 04:58:22 PM »
Wednesday set another record.
Ryan Maue on Twitter: "Preliminary Australia continental high temperature was 107°F (41.7°C) Wednesday. That's the hottest on record, again. Data from Australia Bureau of Meteorology. I make maps.
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 17, 2019, 12:27:52 PM »
When your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks very much like a nail.

Could we expect anything else from the House Armed Services Committee?

Faced with problems of how to feed the poor, improve education, or build highways, the Armed Services Committee will undoubtedly find a solution that requires additional military funding.  :P

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: December 15, 2019, 08:26:48 PM »
The next COP25 is scheduled to be held in Glasgow.

With a new Conservative government, on record as committing to carbon neutral by 2050 and with a manifesto pledge to reform courts that have dabble in politics, expect legal moves to stop these kinds of protests.

Although Scotland runs under a different legal system to the rest of the UK.

I doubt it will be allowed to paralyse Glasgow the way they did London.

What would be even more ironic is that Scotland is already carbon neutral for electricity generation and will ban new FF vehicles from 2030.
Ban protests,
Start to kill Public Service Broadcasting,
Restrict the power of the Judiciary,
Reduce the power of Parliament to obstruct the Government.

Straight from the Dumbo's Guide to a Dictatorship?

Carbon neutral by 2050?
Either a genuine commitment or a good way to kick the can a long, long way down the road.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: December 15, 2019, 12:21:05 PM »
The next COP25 is scheduled to be held in Glasgow.

With a new Conservative government, on record as committing to carbon neutral by 2050 and with a manifesto pledge to reform courts that have dabble in politics, expect legal moves to stop these kinds of protests.

Although Scotland runs under a different legal system to the rest of the UK.

I doubt it will be allowed to paralyse Glasgow the way they did London.

What would be even more ironic is that Scotland is already carbon neutral for electricity generation and will ban new FF vehicles from 2030.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:09:31 PM »
So - 1.5 C by 2030, unless things continue to speed up?

That's going to take some amazing mitigation. Thank god we've such wonderful politicians to lead us through these perilous times. ;)
The Uk Metoffice reckoned there might be a year or two of +1.5 in the 2020's - outliers due to temporary climatic conditions

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:22:14 AM »
Hi everyone:

We are celebrating the Independence of México, so I will not be posting today.
Having fun with friends.  :)

If someone else makes the post. Thanks!

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: August 24, 2019, 01:55:48 AM »
For years, scientists have tried to pinpoint which volcano caused a spell of global cooling in the 6th century A.D. They've finally found the culprit.

Colossal volcano behind 'mystery' global cooling finally found
The eruption devastated local Maya settlements and caused crop failures around the world.
The ices of Greenland and Antarctica bear the fingerprints of a monster: a gigantic volcanic eruption in 539 or 540 A.D. that killed tens of thousands and helped trigger one of the worst periods of global cooling in the last 2,000 years. Now, after years of searching, a team of scientists has finally tracked down the source of the eruption.

The team’s work, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, lays out new evidence that ties the natural disaster to Ilopango, a now-dormant volcano in El Salvador. Researchers estimate that in its sixth-century eruption, Ilopango expelled the equivalent of 10.5 cubic miles of dense rock, making it one of the biggest volcanic events on Earth in the last 7,000 years. The blast was more than a hundred times bigger than the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and several times larger than the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. It dealt the local Maya settlements a blow that forever altered their trajectory.

“This is the largest eruption in Central America that human beings have ever witnessed,” says lead study author Robert Dull, a geologist at California Lutheran University. “The importance of the event is even greater, both how the Maya overcame it and how it impacted what happened next.”

The new work helps solve a longtime geologic mystery. Historical accounts that date to 536 describe a dark fog that dimmed the sun and ushered in a wave of crop deaths. Until recently, scholars were open to the idea that these clouds were the remains of an asteroid or comet. But modern data confirms that the event was volcanic—and that it was two volcanoes up to four years apart, not just one. ...

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 09:10:41 PM »

Gabe Brown is all over the net, this is just one article:

As for carbon:

"By 2010, Brown stopped using synthetic fertilizers and today, his crop yields are 20 percent higher than the average yields in his county. He’s also seen water-infiltration rates skyrocket—from one-half inch per hour, back in 1991, to one inch in nine seconds in 2015. Carbon-retention rates have risen dramatically, too. “On our home place, where we’ve done in-depth, significant testing, our soils have 96 tons of carbon per acre in the top 48 inches,” he says—compared with the 10 to 30 tons of stored carbon typically found in conventionally farmed soils of the Northern Plains."

Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:56:44 PM »

I posted a question on stupid questions noting that early and heavy snowfall is probably a good way to heat up the planet as it does a very good job of insulating against heat loss that would otherwise have been going on.

Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: August 12, 2019, 09:44:01 PM »

Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: August 12, 2019, 09:25:49 PM »
You make it sound as if it's somehow connected?

You're not one of those believers in butterfly wing flapping are you?

The FSM is the only true Flying God, and He's a jealous SOB (Spaghetti over Bratwurst)
Begone with the fashionable frippery that stands between The Provided Truth and this thing called Math.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 10:01:36 AM »
I’m really surprised that the lightning strikes 300 miles from the North Pole yesterday did not cause more discussion on the forum. 

The scientists on climate Twitter could not find any instance of lightning so far north.

It was a strange, and in my opinion important, event.  The arctic is changing!

This is from work, so no one has seen the following pictures... The IFS 0.125° for the 11th at 00Z, wet bulb potential temperature at 850 hPa, vorticity at 850 hPa (above 16, step 4), SLP, thickness 500 (Z500-Z100). There is  a front with a ribbon of vorticity to the North, stretching from the low over Barents to the Chucki sea, with low and mid level clouds, as visible from sat pictures. But associated with the low over Laptev, to the west of the head of the low, there is a maximum of vorticity. Sounding show mid level instability from ~800 hPa to ~250hPa with ~100 to ~200 J/Kg. Marginal, be with good forcings enough for TS.
As Rod said, this is significant.
For one part, this is an illustration of the evolving Arctic. Again, CBs were probably not directly linked to the crazy warm SST, but it is definitively showing that Arctic is warming. The warm air advection was extreme, and was able to carry a potentialy instable airmass up to 85°N. Mid level CBs at the head of a thermal wave are not a thing of the Arctic, up to today...
For the other part, this also means that cyclogenesis is on the move on the Arctic. This low had some characteristics of a warm seclusion with a slight max of temperature, TA and wind around 850 hPa - 900 hPa. Cold, pure baroclinic process are loosing a bit of grip and now warm core process and moist instability is starting to play a role. For the second point, it was of course more evident with the low over Beaufort at the start of the month for example. Here a lone CB will not make any meaningfull difference of course. But next year it could be 10 CBs, then etc... And on the end it will change the cyclogenesis process. It could also be noted that Laptev sea being shallow, it could quickly warm without sea ice. With Siberia snow free earlier and earlier, this could mean a quick increases of moist instability with a warming Arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 04:50:08 AM »

Public Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
800 PM AKDT Sat Aug 10 2019

...Lightning Detected within 300 Miles of North Pole Today...

A number of lightning strikes were recorded between 4pm and 6pm
today within 300 miles of the North Pole. The lightning strikes
occurred near 85 degrees north, 120 degrees east, which is about
700 miles north of the Lena River Delta of Siberia. This lightning
was detected by the GLD lightning detection network which is used
by the National Weather Service. This is one of the furthest
north lightning strikes in Alaska Forecaster memory.



Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 05, 2019, 12:26:31 PM »
Wouldn't that be a good thing for overpopulation? Just turn the power off for a few days and come back to 50% less people!  ;D

It would be most effective when done where you live, but I don't think you would find that very funny. To be entirely dependent on a sick system, to be both victim and accomplice, isn't a laughing matter.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 04, 2019, 06:22:18 PM »
while thinking about painted ladies yesterday one landed beside me .. 5 years since I last played host to a few . In 2009 I watched thousands arrive in NE Donegal from Scotland  .. on 31st May .. b.c.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 02, 2019, 07:40:00 PM »
On a more positive note we , here in the UK, are in a bit of a 'Painted Lady' invasion!

Numbers were up in spring/early summer in the parts of Europe they come from so we are in a 'decadal' spike in numbers

My buddleia is earning its nickname this summer!!!
What a coincidence. This morning a painted lady (distelvlinder, Vanessa cardui) sat sometime on my windowsill and I have taken a nice photo.
This is in the North of the Netherlands.

I think the Baltic still freezes in winter because there is still a lot of polar ocean sea ice. The Baltic doesn't seem to me to be a good metaphore for what'll happen when most of the arctic sea ice is gone. The Baltic doesn't make NH weather and polar jets.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: July 27, 2019, 02:34:44 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :   16,064,379  km2(July 26, 2019)

In the last week massively below average extent gains (including 2 days of estent loss) followed by modestly above extent gains. It seems to happen more frequently as maximum ice extent approaches, probably due to the perpetually violent weather** and storms that can shift large amounts of thin ice at the fringes about.

2019 is now lowest in the satellite record for the 81st day this year.
Extent is , just 62 k below 2017 and 174 k below 2018.

- Extent gain on this day 64 k, a variation of 41 k from the average gain of 104 k on this day.
- Extent gain from minimum is 13.640 million km2, 0.216 million km2 (1.6%) less than the average of 13.855 million km2 by this day,
- 87.3% of average extent gain done, with 52 days to the average date of maximum (16 Sept).

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of the last 10 years gives a max of 18.10 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.04 million km2 greater than 2017 (the record low maximum year).

This is still a significant upwards change in extent from the end of June.  Still a large chance of significant change - either way. ______________________________________________________________________

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 01:13:07 PM »
I'll need a few days to get up to speed. But given that this is probably the only thread that is worth reading on the Internet, I would kindly ask everyone to stay as much on-topic as possible and/or keep it short.

Edit: Getting up to speed a bit already today, and just two words for now: Lord Almighty...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 12:40:25 PM »
Take your pick. dmi, hycom jul3-25 and piomas jul3-15

Is there any chance to measure sea ice thickness (at least at some points) by ships/expeditions in the CAB and to compare the measured data with the modeled data and (maybe) adjust the models to the reality?
Measure - yes. Compare - no. See, the measurements are being done all the time. Problem is, for some reasons publishing those measurements - is not possible for any modern times. Historical measurements - pre-2000 - are easily available, as mentioned, for example, here.

I have just returned from Croatia. Thanks to everyone for the condolences. In coming days, I'll try and get things in order here on the Forum.
It is great to see you back and to see your spirit strong, man! But you sound still grim. I understand. Been there, 28 years ago... Please, do always remember: he's not dead yet - as long as you are alive and your memories of him are alive, he is in a certain and very real way still alive. Nothing mystical, pure neuro-biology here. I'm sure you can see how it works if you'd think about it. Salute!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 02:37:49 PM »

We know why Neven is away and you want him to come back to this???

Take a chill pill, kiss and make up .and lets move on please?
Yep, i concur with Gray-Wolf 100%. Everyone just calm down for Neven's sake, please!

P.S. If someone missed what it's about - it's extraordinary circumstances currently, for Neven: he's enduring through much stressful, very obligating and major family matter, at this time. This is what keeps him away and very busy, for now. Lots on his shoulders now, as it is - and we can help by at very least staying civilized in the forum here.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 03:57:21 PM »
Thankful that this heat wave is passing through in  just a few days. A week of this would be .....

Climate change is still just a precocious child. Showing off. The reaction to the Great Acceleration is just beginning to show up. Puberty is going to be a bitch.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:00:57 PM »
GFS max 2m temps for the next 10 days are 2-3C where most of the ice is located. Average temps are obviously lower. Enough to keep melt going steadily, but nothing epic as far as I can tell.

Wouldn't the ice peg the surface temperature to around that level regardless of how much melt is going on? Since melting ice absorbs heat energy from the surroundings. I think something like 850hpa temps are more indicative of the actual stress the ice experiences.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 18, 2019, 06:09:25 PM »
I rarely post but regularly read this site. You have built a great community and do a great job leading it. Your ethics, patience and integrity are astounding. I have no doubt that your parents were phenomenal people as judged by just one facet of their life, you. My condolences.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 15, 2019, 08:03:47 PM »
If the BOE were to persist throughout the Arctic winter, then a comparable amount of heat would be lost during the cold, dark months, due to the lack of ice cover.  This could exceed the heat gain, as the Arctic winter tends to have less cloud cover than the Arctic summer.  The Arctic temperature will drop rapidly, resulting in a greater mid-latitude to pole temperature gradient.  This will cause the polar stream to accelerate, tightening its rotation about the pole.  This will lead to warmer mid-latitude winters and colder Arctic winters.  This has not occurred in recently years, as both have warmed.

Consequently, a summer BOE is highly unlikely to result in a year-round BOE, as the large heat loss that would occur during an Arctic winter, would cause the temperature to fall significantly below freezing.  However, a year-long BOE might be preferable to a seasonal BOE, as it would allow substantial heat to be lost, slowing the global temperature rise.

If the Arctic is no longer an ice desert in winter, but a maritime environment, then there may be much more cloud formation which acts as a "blanket" reflecting back outgoing radiation before it escapes to space. This is how a BOE could possibly sustain over the dark winter months. The most recent research has shown that the autumn season is becoming more cloudy as the ice retreats.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2019, 12:45:19 PM »
I didn't realise Rich was paying to be here . I hope his riches enrich us all . b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2019, 12:33:22 PM »
My issue with the way the data is presented is that it is somewhat dissonant with the interests of the customer base.

I assume you have done a survey?

The data is freely available. If you believe there's a better way to present it, then do it. Don't pontificate, do something.
heavy sigh...

The data is organised into 3 sections because that is the way it looked to me.
Tealight's High Arctic analyses also use the same 7 seas. That is really useful- being able to match extent, area and volume, to AWP.

I sometimes use other ways of looking at the data, e.g. the Atlantic Front, the Pacific Gateway, the Canadian Seas, the 3 Central Seas when it seems appropriate.

Wipneus's inner basin uses 5 seas. (excludes Kara and CAA?) and he uses AMSR2 high res data, but that only goes back to 2012.

For the sake of consistency it is better to continue as is for my standard daily postings even if it is a sub-optimal solution at different times of the year. And anyway, my clapped out old laptop (and my brain) is already having problems in coping with 60 megabytes of somewhat complex interlinked spreadsheets.

Customer base?
Gosh Neven, better stop while I am still being polite.

Follow this link at your own risk....,1860.msg213578.html#msg213578

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 15, 2019, 07:14:00 AM »
There maybe links to this elsewhere but this Just Have a Think episode on BOE, linked below, provides some relevent material.

Consequences / The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: July 13, 2019, 09:06:18 PM »
I have been finding it difficult to find information on the wider global impacts of a Blue Ocean Event, outside the likes of Paul Beckwith. Peter Wadhams and an odd few extremely reticent/conservative academic papers. Hopefully this topic will help bring together what knowledge there is. Impacts from the materials that I have been able to find have included:

- A collapse of the polar cell and ferrel cells with a resulting equible Northern Hemisphere climate
- A "polar cell" centred on Greenland (until that melts out) with very static jet streams and little seasonal variability
- A maritime environment in the Arctic that produces large precipitation on permafrost areas, which will then accelerate CO2/CH4 emissions
- Massive storms in the North Atlantic as the more rapid melting of Greenland creates a bigger, more intense, "cold blob" that contrasts with the warmer waters around it
- A general acceleration of climate change due to much lower Northern Hemisphere reflectivity
- More rapid melting of the Antarctic due to the climate "see-saw"
- Northward movement of the ITCZ rain belts greatly changing rainfall patterns (plus and minus) for some areas
- etc.

This is a paper I wrote on the subject a couple of years ago and its amazing how little research has been published in the interim.

Seems to generally be "the Northern Hemisphere is f***ed" with a BOE. I have started looking at real estate in Ecuador (Cuenca seems to be very nice) and the Paraguay highlands! Others insights would be much appreciated.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:07:32 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 11:56:06 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.

"Top surface melt" season has reached its peak for sure, but "bottom melt" season is only just beginning and often chews through a lot of ice in late July and in August. With such open water between the ice floes in the past 2 weeks or so, a lot of solar energy has been soaked up by the upper ocean layer, so everything is in place for an intense "bottom melt season" in the Beaufort...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 09:53:51 PM »
Neven, the daily extent drops show two consecutive double-century drops. Is the latest one a record? (Graph from Alphabet Hotel above)

Consecutive double centuries happen every now and then. The most recent was July 27th to 29th last year, with with drops of 211k and 253k.
2014 had one too, between the 27th and 29th of June, with 228k and 275k

Welcome back BFV. I missed your special updates you used to provide earlier related to severity of melting seasons.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 10, 2019, 12:15:51 PM »
Breaching a 'carbon threshold' could lead to mass extinction

Daniel Rothman, professor of geophysics and co-director of the Lorenz Center in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, has found that when the rate at which carbon dioxide enters the oceans pushes past a certain threshold—whether as the result of a sudden burst or a slow, steady influx—the Earth may respond with a runaway cascade of chemical feedbacks, leading to extreme ocean acidification that dramatically amplifies the effects of the original trigger....

...What does this all have to do with our modern-day climate? Today's oceans are absorbing carbon about an order of magnitude faster than the worst case in the geologic record—the end-Permian extinction. But humans have only been pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for hundreds of years, versus the tens of thousands of years or more that it took for volcanic eruptions or other disturbances to trigger the great environmental disruptions of the past. Might the modern increase of carbon be too brief to excite a major disruption?

According to Rothman, today we are "at the precipice of excitation," and if it occurs, the resulting spike—as evidenced through ocean acidification, species die-offs, and more—is likely to be similar to past global catastrophes.

"Once we're over the threshold, how we got there may not matter," says Rothman, who is publishing his results this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Once you get over it, you're dealing with how the Earth works, and it goes on its own ride.

The Paper itself

Characteristic disruptions of an excitable carbon cycle

The history of the carbon cycle is punctuated by enigmatic transient changes in the ocean’s store of carbon. Mass extinction is always accompanied by such a disruption, but most disruptions are relatively benign. The less calamitous group exhibits a characteristic rate of change whereas greater surges accompany mass extinctions. To better understand these observations, I formulate and analyze a mathematical model that suggests that disruptions are initiated by perturbation of a permanently stable steady state beyond a threshold. The ensuing excitation exhibits the characteristic surge of real disruptions. In this view, the magnitude and timescale of the disruption are properties of the carbon cycle itself rather than its perturbation. Surges associated with mass extinction, however, require additional inputs from external sources such as massive volcanism. Surges are excited when CO2 enters the oceans at a flux that exceeds a threshold. The threshold depends on the duration of the injection. For injections lasting a time ti≳10,000 y in the modern carbon cycle, the threshold flux is constant; for smaller ti, the threshold scales like ti−1. Consequently the unusually strong but geologically brief duration of modern anthropogenic oceanic CO2 uptake is roughly equivalent, in terms of its potential to excite a major disruption, to relatively weak but longer-lived perturbations associated with massive volcanism in the geologic past.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 08:20:20 PM »
Where Piomas showed 2m thick ice on the Siberian shore a week ago (@ 160E ) , today there is fast melting remnants looking thinner than the ice under the climate protesters .. I hope Piomas has not been so badly fooled everywhere .
  I am pleased at least to see the cracks N. of Greenland .. I wasn't sure there was any ice left with the structural integrity to crack .. b.c.

p.s. I see post 3538 up the page shows 2m ice @ 160E today ! .. take a peek on Worldview .. if that's 2m thick  then so am I ..

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 02:13:50 PM »
A big P.S. also to my post, beyond the fact that June 2019 was abysmal, I wanted to show also, even though it was not explicitly state, that Sun input is increasing bigly in Arctic, with an increase of 1 W/m² in June every four years. It could perhaps have been better to wait MERRA, but the topic was brought again in this discussion so go. But even more importantly, no matter if 2019 is at record or not, we are witnessing the effect of increase Sun input, with Chukchi, Beaufort and Bering running like bats out of hell after records. Of course, it is a progressive state change, but I fear we are nearer and nearer to the point that Bering sea will be perennially open, and even Chucki sea looks to be already in bad state for a good refreeze this winter. If ocean is warm enough, I think that it could supply enough moisture to create a positive feedback with longwave radiation. The warmer, the moister, the moister, the less heat can escape to space. And the warmer, the longer it takes to cool down, and if heat is not able to radiate back to space, it will take even longer. And if a melt season can give hand to the next like it was almost the case last three years, Sun input in summer is going to go trough the roof, etc... Up to now, Arctic was more or less able to erase its memory of the latest melt season during winter, but when I see the SSTs going trough the roof and Arctic pounded by relentless warmth and sun, and the last 3 years, I fear we are reaching the point where it is no longer the case.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 03:28:45 AM »
Most of the southern ESS, from the coast to about 200 - 300km towards the pole, is now a mass of loose floes, in some places with significant open water.   And then a close-up.   Top image unaltered, bottom pushed for contrast on Photoshop.  It seems to be happening scarily fast.

Off (and off-line) to the mountains for a few weeks... back in Sept.  May the ice be with us...

Hey, I can see maybe 4 white pixels in north Quebec at the end.  You quitter, you!  >:( :o ::)

OK, the insult worked. Just for you a gif. Needs a click.
"watch it very carefully, I will play it only once"

ps: I will continue to produce a gif when there is no snow. Watching something that has no change can be restful.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:17:24 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck

It's always so hard to compare any year to pre-storm 2012.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 12:09:51 PM »

I've had a look at the June data in the context of longer-term trends.

The September volume minimum has been declining at a linear trend of around 320 km3 per annum. The 2010's average minimum volume is just under 5,000 km3. Assuming
- 5,000 km3 as the 2010's midpoint value (i.e. 2004),
- and an average loss rate in the following 5 years of 320 km3 per annum,
then in 2019  the minimum volume would be 1,600 km3 less, i.e. 3,400 km3. This is just 100 km3 more than the result from assuming an average volume loss from now to minimum.

Then one could say that the result of the major volume loss in June was mainly to make it more likely to get the September minimum back a bit below trend. The data obviously has no view in whether remaining volume loss will be above, below or at average.

2) TEALIGHT'S HIGH ARCTIC (or the 7 Central Seas of Kara+Laptev+ESS+Chukchi+Beaufort+CAA+CAB)

High Arctic volume is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Area is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Average thickness is 2nd lowest in the satellite record - 2017 being the lowest. This is simply because 2017 area was around 500,000 km2 more than 2019 at the end of June.

What really matters is that on volume and thickness 2019 is below 2012 and 2016.
What also matters is that 2019 Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic is also highest.

So Albedo joins volume and thickness to suggest, that in the seas that matter from now to minimum, record low volume, thickness and area is more likely.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:27:02 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Click for larger pictures, helps reading the tiny fonts.

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