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Messages - tzupancic

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 02:51:09 PM »
I'm no expert but it seems regardless of whether or not 2020 is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd it will be the year that is known for setting up the arctic to go poof.  Even if the Beaufort somehow hangs on it is only because of the massive export to it throughout the season.  It does look like it will go though.

The crack (which spurred me to finally sign up for an account here in 2015) has gotten bigger than ever and the bastion of MYI (CAA) is becoming open water and rubble almost to the pole.  Some previous years like 2015 show similar massive damage North of Greenland but 2020 seems more comprehensive.

It reminds me of 2007 in the way that caused such lasting damage.  I don't know where to find weather from 2007 but it did have some big losses in late August and early September.  It would be interesting to compare the 2007 weather with this years.

Just my thoughts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:13:46 PM »
Yes, 2012 was very exceptional in my understanding. I expect we will get a string of second places for a few years till the long term trend puts us below 2012 and the we are ****ed.

Succinctly put Tom. Extent will likely hold up/plateau for a while yet but each year the fraction of MYI gets less and less until there is near Arctic wide FYI and that wont stand a chance with a summer like this one (or 2012).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 12:17:28 PM »
A look at ice motion under the center of the storm.
Latitude line is 77.5°N
Needs click.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 08:47:16 PM »
My prediction of a remarkable slow down in ice extent reduction didn't seem very popular here.
I suspect it was less that you said it would slow down, and perhaps more your implication (perhaps not clearly indicated) as to  *why* it was going to slow down.

The slow down we see currently is not the result of a "good thing";  that's obvious when you look at the area numbers and see continuing century-break losses.

The storm and dipole are blowing up the ice, scattering the Beaufort and shoving CAB ice back across the Laptev.  A less ideal direction for ice movement would be hard to find. 

When the dust settles there will be more pieces, and smaller, and a lot of them will likely disappear in a hurry.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 09:06:40 AM »
I've softened some of Friv's comments above but left the Friv-binntho exchange intact as it saves me some speeches. While I fully agree with Friv's analysis of the melt momentum, and share his frustration with some of the comments on this thread, binntho is exactly right in his rebuttal - wrong people are wrong, not trolls, and by posting wrong opinions they are not derailing the thread. They are probably derailing their future reputation as ice forecasters, and showing that even on the famed ASIF people can be spectacularly wrong.

Please avoid continuing this meta-discussion on this thread, consider binntho's as the last word. I will continue editing if needed when posters make personal comments about other posters' character or intentions. Of course, feel free to comment about other posters' wrongness.

One thing I will not allow further without some references - the claim that ice in the middle of the ocean is ridged and stacked in the summer under a HP ("compaction") regime. While I know nothing much of the subject, this has been a recurring talking point (esp. Michael Hauber) with no proof presented, and under dispute by many other posters. So I ask further claims of this type to be made in a separate thread and scientific references be presented to bolster said claim.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 03:32:13 AM »

I'd like to preface this by saying that I don't even like to guess at where the season will finish, because it seems like an easy way to be wrong about one more thing in life. I have made some predictions about the end of the month, which are modest and based off of long term loss patterns for the various arctic seas. So I am not claiming to know about what position this year will finish in, and your belief in 3rd place or above is not really what bothers me. What I find slightly off putting about your posts is the degree of certainty you speak with, in spite of the fact that many long term observers on this forum have put forward evidence that should at least make you question your conclusions. Also, you never admit when called out on something (such as your comment about the open water being "mostly on the fringes").

As for your specific replies:

Why would it be just as likely that there is more area and not less given the record low extent? You're treating this as a logical problem (area could be either higher or lower, so there's 50% chance each way), whereas such a statement must be justified empirically.

I would like to compare to 2019, for example, but 2019 had a low pressure system over the arctic for almost all of July, so it's difficult to make comparisons for most of the ice. Clearly the Beaufort was in worse shape in 2019, but that's about all that is clear (other than that way more momentum has been built up this year due to insolation).

As for the ridging/rafting, no one was questioning that this happens, so your PIOMAS link offers nothing to the discussion. A paper was already put forward on the difference in the mechanics between rafting and ridging. The question was whether we could expect this to occur during melt season on structurally compromised ice, due to compaction. You haven't provided any new information on that question.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:38:25 PM »
Uh oh

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:36:52 PM »
Can you please provide evidence of ice stacking on top of ot self to maintain thickness???

Pressure ridges are all over but they are only a few meters wide.

Its truly astonishing how many different excuses you guys are coming up with to rationalize away the most prolific warmth(May-present) we have every seen in the arctic basin and the decimation its caused.

This idea that the ice is super compact is a joke that you can visibly dispel on worldview.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 06:49:37 AM »
There is a large area near Svalbard and in the Fram.  This ice is toast.  Guaranteed to vanish regardless of the sun and temps because its going into the Atlantic.

Same thing happens almost every year. With the exception of 2012 where the Atlantic side pushed into the CAB to 84N, the Atlantic CAB ice / water interface generally ends above the line which separates the shallow Atlantic shelves and the Nansen Basin at 82-82.5N.

No reason to expect anything like 2012 on the Atlantic side this year.

No one is expecting the Atlantic side to be like 2012.

That doesn't change the fate of the ice around Svalbard.

It's going to melt on its way into the Atlantic.

That's the point.

You brought up the volume of 2020 being to high to challenge for a record or near record year.

That's all that is being argued.

It feels like your response to this specific region of highly anomalous ice thickness in accordance with PIOMAS was simply moving the goalposts.

This ANOMALOUSLY THICKER than NORMAL ice helps 2020 have higher ice volume going into the summer melt season than 8 other years.  Not by very but that's what PIOMAS says.

However this chunk of ice is going to melt out one way or another. It's not going to be pulled back into the main pack.

You can essentially act like it doesn't exist.  Or another way is that it's artificially inflating the volume.  Of course it's not that simple but it's pretty obvious.

It's the last place you want thicker than normal ice in the Arctic if you want to see the ice retain volume during the summer melt season.

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