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Messages - Matt

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2019, 09:19:32 AM »
@Killian

Both really, i like to see what is required to reach certain milestones compared to what is currently unfolding on a daily basis with the extent numbers. Then cross reference that requirement with the average melt curve that genocrat provides. It allows for a very easy analysis of the current melting situation (on a purely numerical perspective -of course because that is what this thread is about).

 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2019, 08:04:16 AM »
Killian,

For people like myself who just don't have the time to do these numbers, i thank you very much for your efforts, it puts the data provided by Garcia and Gerontocrat into extra perspective. After all, is this not the thread where we are supposed to be analysing the "area and extent data"??? :P ;D

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 04:40:10 AM »
A prediction of sorts  ;D
As our weather systems are driven by temperature differential and we have not yet seen a major low pressure system this season, i am guessing that temperatures across the basin are fairly consistent? (I think a few contributors here have mentioned a positive 2°C temp across large areas?)
The GAC of 2012 which occurred in early August was surely enhanced by the open water and increased surface temps that this provided relative to the remaining ice pack?
I think this year due to the amount of heat still currently in the arctic and the vast area of open water on the pacific side, i wonder if the conditions are primed for a similar event to take place once the excessive heat is removed from what is left of the ice pack, albeit slightly later in the season.
So my very amateurish prediction is for a very deep low pressure system to form in the second half of August somewhere in the Chukchi/ESS/ Beaufort sea areas.  ::)
Currently looking at the 10 Day GFS model, high pressure still dominates the latter half of the forecast across almost the entire arctic.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:45:28 AM »
Isn't this as simple as Neven was commenting to Jaxa data and Alphabet Hotel's chart is NSIDC data? or do i have this completely wrong  ::)
 
Edit: sorry in reply to post 1553  :)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 15, 2017, 06:01:30 AM »
Wow where did that come from??? :o

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Walking the walk / Re: On the individual level? A mea culpa
« on: February 25, 2013, 04:49:08 AM »
Misfratz,

I sympathise with your situation...
Although not in your situation, I have also had the torment of being stuck in a situation where i wanted to become more carbon neutral, but in my case unable to afford to do so.
It has taken my family 4 years now to finish renovating our old home and sell (the market here in Aus is woeful) in order to remove our debt so we can now afford to go "off the grid" with solar in our new home.
the irony for us was a major part of the problem we had was the massive service bills (power being the worst) limiting our capacity to progress on being self sufficient.
Unfortunately our government (and opposition) are owned by the mining and fossil fuel sector, so relatively easy affordable schemes to put everyone onto solar are not being implemented (and won't be for the foreseeable future).
 

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The forum / Re: Thanks for setting up the forum
« on: February 25, 2013, 03:34:28 AM »
Agree with all posts above! ;D
Thanks Neven for setting up the forum. I have been reading the Blog for the past year, but have have virtually no luck getting a login or posting comments!
This new forum is great for letting us, less science minded people comment in areas closer to our fields of expertise  :P
I am forever endebted to the wonderful contributions in the sea ice blog for teaching me so much about not just the arctic, but climate change in general.
I have given up my silence in debating the issue (to keep the peace) as the issue is just too important for the future of my children, and using forums like this (and the links i use from it) are an essential weapon to defuse the bulls##t bombs in conversation before they have any effect  :D

8
Terry,
I would agree that insurance payouts are quite a good indicator. Insurance is an issue i constantly use when confronted with the "its all a conspiracy" bulls##t. Rather than payouts i use premiums as an example and indicator. Insurance premiums are a great one to measure for a few reasons. 1. the cost of providing customer service is maintained very well. 2. The payout figures on claims (like for like) can be scaled for inflation 3. The re-insurance costs for providers are generally reported in company financial reports and again can be easily comaped to inflation/growth rates.
When people whinge about their carbon tax (here in Australia) i ask them why they don't complain about the increase in insurance premiums. I actually find that the penny drops for more people when i talk about the relationship between premium costs and extreme weather events, than actually talking about the science of AGW.... Sad really.....

9
Bob,
The graph you have posted, i believe really sums up why so many people are pessimistic about our future.
I have been absolutely fascinated by Nevin's blog for over a year now, and through links and moving off on a tangent from those links came across the works of Prof. Kevin Anderson. In this presentation he explains that graph, and what the world as a collective must do to reach these goals.
Unfortunately i don't believe there is a snowballs chance that we will meet even the best case scenario depicted in the graph.
I have read the contributions in Neven's Blog with amazement at how knowledgeable the contributors are (i have had to teach myself and research some of the comments just to understand in some cases). However now we have this forum, and can discuss areas more akin to my areas of expertise.
Unfortunately i believe our biggest problem in trying to solve the AGW crisis, is the state of democracy in many of the worst polluting countries. In my country of Australia for example, we basically run as a two party communist system  (a bit like the US), the only difference being the power of money (advertising to the 80% of politically brain dead voters) ensuring who is elected, instead of a gun. As the fossil fuel industry holds the most cash, they also hold the power over government decisions. A prime example of this occurred in the US with the emergence of the Tea party and subsequent hammering of Republican senators who wanted to act on climate change.
I believe that social revolution will occur before meaningfull action on carbon reduction and that massive consequences of climate change will have to become commonplace before the social revolution. By that time..... too late. :o

Do i have the title of the most negative now  ;D

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