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Messages - Archimid

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"Surely, the smart thing should control the dumb thing, but actually it's the dumb thing that controls the smart thing." - E. Musk

The whole conversation is very much on topic. Lex Fridman's channel is fantastic too.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 10, 2019, 10:41:26 PM »
More on Tesla's approach to Neural Networks and self-driving. This 11-minute talk has loads of great information.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 09, 2019, 10:06:00 PM »
Global warming hasn't stopped. In many ways, the entire globe is going through a cold phase. Soon the record hot cold phase will become an even more record hot hot phase. Rinse and repeat.

Since 2007 the date of the first BOE has been getting closer and closer. Then it stopped at 2032 for the last few years.

Global warming is not stopping any time soon, why should the melt stop? Can fall snow lower albedo enough to counteract the warm oceans and wobbly polar vortex? Has winter ice hit a new minimum due to a very fast ice extent allowing more time for thickening? For how long? CO2 is still up there making everything warmer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 08, 2019, 11:52:00 PM »

 I can see how ASI refreeze declines could slow as diminishing ice cover allows more ocean heat to escape to the atmosphere during the winter. 

 More open water means more time for heat to escape but it also means more heat gets into the oceans.  It seems to me that as long as there is significant ice in September the ice extent will grow, sometimes furiously fast and heat will be trapped in. The top layer of the ocean, when frozen, keeps the heat in.

Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: November 08, 2019, 11:39:46 AM »
First native Zika cases in Europe confirmed as experts warn climate change could bring more

While Europe dealt with hundreds of imported cases during the outbreak of the virus three years ago, it never had a native case -- where local mosquitoes developed and spread the virus -- before now.
All three patients developed symptoms within a few days of each other, the ECDC said, meaning they were likely part of the same transmission cycle. They have recovered, and the risk to residents and travelers to the region is low, the organization added

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:55:06 AM »
Sure GSY. Whatever you say.

To others,

Brute Force Algorithms:

Brute Force Algorithms refers to a programming style that does not include any shortcuts to improve performance, but instead relies on sheer computing power to try all possibilities until the solution to a problem is found.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:45:37 AM »
You say this several times without any explanation, unless you mean that because they send "packets of data" that is not the approach.

See the Karpathy link I posted.  But yes, he uses the fact that Tesla only collects small packets of data as proof that they do not have sufficient data for a brute force approach. He is right that Tesla does not collect enough data for a brute force approach, but he is wrong about Tesla using a brute force approach.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:41:21 AM »
Could Tesla be the Palm Pilot of self-driving EVs? I had one in the day, now it is all iPhone and Android.

That would be a best-case scenario where Tesla accelerated the advent of the electric car to such a level that a different maker can accelerate the transition even faster than Tesla. Let's hope for it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 07, 2019, 10:29:20 PM »
There must be some good research that settles the question nicely. I can't find it. In the meantime, some clarification.

First-year ice most certainly is more prone to melt than multi-year ice.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 07, 2019, 10:11:25 PM »
a little Twitter gold:

This is true, but not the way GSY thinks. This kind of drivel will produce gold for Tesla and long term investors.

The best proof of that?

$TSLAQ, this will be my final thread

The guy is completely sure Tesla will lose, but he is calling quits. Believe him if you want.

I'll even be nice to you and tell you why is that person is wrong, knowing full well that people fallen victim to the negative propaganda campaign can't emotionally understand this, regardless of how intelligent. The same thing happens to climate change deniers.

So here goes nothing:

This is an autopilot thread
The rest of this thread is about what neural networks are, in layman's terms, and why $tsla is fucked 

I have no problem with the guy explanation of what a neural network is and how they work. The explanation is good enough for twitter. The problem is that he makes the wrong assumption about Tesla and from that wrong assumption he inferred the wrong conclusion. Quite typical, once you are deluded.

Here is his wrong assumption:

Why will $TSLA self-driving fail?

First, because they're trying a brute-force neural network, which won't work.

A brute force approach would be to take all the data the car can collect and transmit, feed it to a Neural net and use those results. In theory, that approach should work but given data and computing power restrictions it would take too long and be too expensive. Tesla is most certainly not taking a brute force approach.

Because Tesla is not taken a brute force approach all his inferences break down. Look.

They don't store the video data on the car. They don't transmit the data out of the car. $tsla is not in the race for autonomous driving. They lost.

They store and transmit packets of data, but not nearly enough that a brute force approach would be successful. But that is not a problem because Tesla is not taking a brute force approach.

B) Even if they were getting enough data, a brute-force neural network will demand a computer way more powerful than what's on the cars today. We're talking at least 20x-30x, probably closer to 100x

The cars drive themselves today with 5 year old off the shelf hardware. Newer cars have a custom-built chip. It is mostly a software problem now.

But the core thesis is this:
$TSLA has a fundamentally flawed approach to autonomous vehicles

Tesla does not use a brute force approach. They use a data-intensive approach, and I'm sure some elements of the stack require brute force methods, but the premise of the author of these tweets is simply wrong.

@elonmusk has driven away all the talented AI and ML engineers that told him this.
25/ And thus $TSLA is left with second-tier computer scientists trying desperately to do what they know is impossible.

Hmmm. Andrej Karpathy designed machine learning at Stanford. He is in charge of AP.

Here he is talking about his approach. Quite an excellent talk.

The AP chip was design by Jim Keller. See his background:

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 07, 2019, 05:34:42 PM »
The area is also important when answering the question. The larger the area the more the thin floe will break, increasing surface area, albedo and melting. So an apples to apples comparison requires a fixed area too.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 06, 2019, 09:46:31 PM »
i thought GSY was delirious, but wow, philopek, poor guy...

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 06, 2019, 03:53:33 AM »
I think the hiatus is clear and obvious from Gerontocrat's graphs. Without the hiatus the Arctic would've been about ice-free by now.

The reasons for the hiatus are also relatively clear.

During summer the thick ice is gone so there isn't much easy volume to lose. The remaining volume of ice is in the Central Arctic Sea, protected from maximum irradiance and WAA by the oldest ice in the Arctic.

During winter, thin ice thickens faster than thick ice making the Arctic ice behave more like Antarctic ice.

And that's where we are. At least two heatsinks must be saturated before the march towards the first BOE can continue.

Given human made, CO2 induced global warming. Given Arctic Amplification. Given permafrost and methane activation, local to the Arctic. Given the disturbances in atmospheric currents inducing WAA. Given the lowered Albedo of Arctic Ocean. Given the Greenland crack.

 I don't think it will take long before the hiatus ends.

About the only thing working in our favor is the fall snow increase slightly lowering continental albedo.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 05, 2019, 12:36:18 PM »
I don't think Isaac Asimov's 3 laws of robotics have a chance.

No, they don't. They are meant to protect humans from AI, not from humans controlling AIs.  AIs are more dangerous as tools of the powerful than as self-aware algorithms.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 04, 2019, 02:13:13 PM »
I like to compare engine wear to battery degradation.  Manufacturers recommend an oil change every few thousand miles. This is just a recommendation. Often cars can be driven thousands of miles past the recommended oil change with no noticeable near term consequence. However, go too many miles past the recommendation and you break the car. Go some miles above the recommendation often enough and you lose engine life.

EVs do not require oil changes but good charging habits will prolong the lifetime of the battery. It is a certainty that some people will use their cars just like you describe, but it won't be a significant number of people. Most people will follow the recommendations, especially because at very low  SoC(high DoD) the cars accelerate worse than ICEs. At least Teslas do.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 04, 2019, 12:28:37 PM »
Solar Electric Air Heater! (100W 12V) - 100W Solar Panel runs it! - PV space heating!! Ez DIY

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 04, 2019, 11:27:02 AM »
Thanks for the correction. I should've used SoC instead of DoD. My point remains tho. At a low SoC  the BMS can protect the battery from significant damage.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: November 03, 2019, 06:25:27 PM »
Giant water battery helps university cut energy costs by 40 per cent

A giant chilled water-battery is using the solar energy generated by 6000 solar panels on top of roofs at the University of the Sunshine Coast to chill water and save 40 per cent of airconditioning costs.

The idea has been so successful it will cut the airconditioning costs of the entire university and save $100 million within the next 25 years, while reducing emissions.

The details are sparse but the technology sounds intriguing.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 03, 2019, 05:46:58 PM »
From NeilT link:

Battery degradation does depend on Depth of Discharge, but it also depends on power input/output and temperatures

A BMS ensures that the degradation that occurs at low SoC is minimized by managing power and temperatures.

A Tesla that is always driven from 0% SoC to 10% SoC, would be a very slow car that can barely hit 25 MPH at the lower end of the charge.  Because the power draw and temperatures are highly limited, the impact on the number of cycles is minimal.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 03, 2019, 03:10:59 PM »
Hacking my Tesla Model S for an Emergency 12v Power Source

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 11:30:27 PM »
Terry describes reality. Of course, Havana doesn't have the pesky problem of winter.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 11:16:47 PM »
Yes, the higher latitudes get less solar during winter. You can compensate in two ways. Overbuild the panels and/or add wind power if available.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 10:36:58 PM »
What can people in cities who live in 'poor' neighbourhoods in high rise flats do?

What to do you propose? Should we ignore this solution because it is not a solution for everyone? Is there a general solution?

The minorities, what can they do?

I'm not sure what being a minority got to do with it.

Simply said, what can people without money to spend do? I think I am representing the large majority here.

you mean the global 95% or the 95% of rich nations? Different solutions to different problems.

I would imagine that to the true poor, the one that knows hunger, these technologies will be revolutionary. They don't need much and they make due, so even a small array will make a huge difference in their lives.

Are we solely thinking about the USA? The world is a bit larger with most people living outside it. What can they do?

Nope, we are talking about the world. Most of the world have higher power cost and more sunlight. The transition will be even faster there.

If they, when able to afford, start copying this off-grid behaviour, an exponential increase in resources will result. On a finite Earth with little habitat left. And dwindling resources.

We need to massively recycle everything we use. Trash should be too expensive for anyone to create. Recycle everything. Batteries must have a life in cars, a second life in homes or grid applications and then most of the materials be recovered and reused.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 04:55:32 PM »
I'm just glad the technology exists and there are people getting it. The more people get it, the better.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 03:58:50 PM »
Can You Survive Off-Grid with Tesla Solar & Powerwalls?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 02, 2019, 02:25:42 PM »
NeilT. Degradation is not just about the depth of discharge. Power input, output, and temperatures also play a huge role. It is true that closer to the max/min battery capacity degradation gets stronger exponential and asymptotically to the max/min theoretical voltage of the battery but only if power and temperature are held constant. If the temperature is managed and power output reduced a significant amount of degradation can be avoided.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2019, 03:10:18 PM »
The extent growth in the Kara and the Laptev is impressive, even if expected. In Aluminium's animations the role of bathymetry, shoals and the geometry of the sea ice is evident. Volume figures should be spectacular, given how fast thin ice grows.

 Warm sst's seem to be overpowered by ice growth when temperatures are low enough.  That extra energy will go somewhere, but it now has to pass through ice if it wants to go up. I expect air temperature anomalies to remain above average until at least February, depending on WAA.

It's not a coin. It's an n sided dice, where n is given by the n-pole anomaly and its interaction with oceans and land.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 30, 2019, 09:21:39 AM »
Glory or Failure?

Porsche Taycan Turbo S vs Tesla Model S: DRAG RACE, FULL REVIEW AND VMAX | Top Gear

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 28, 2019, 01:56:18 AM »
we're expecting it to be roughly in line with where Model 3 is coming out of our Fremont factory.

To me, this means high margins while production is ramping up and whatever margins are possible after the ramp. They must sell as cheap as possible to increase the market share (the more Model 3 the more demand), but not so cheap that the long term plans are affected.

If my memory serves me well, Giga 3  comes with tax strings attached. Tesla must pay a minimum amount of taxes over the next few years, so margin goals will also be affected by taxes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2019, 02:43:32 PM »
In my current understanding the why would be:

 A very shallow ocean has exhausted the heat acquired during summer, the ess.


That space is almost surrounded by ice, improving the conditions for ice formation.


It is record late in the season thus this freezing is happening with even less solar input than usual. I expect more of this fast extent growth soon. The thickness will depend of the fdd's we get after the ocean is covered.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 27, 2019, 01:27:31 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Performance vs Rivals: M3, C63 S & Giulia QV (EXTENDED) | Top Gear : Series 27

If I asked you to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

Let me rephrase the question. If I asked your society to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

At a society level, how do you ask a whole society to relearn a measuring system? If a law was passed today that banned the use of the metric system and required all new measures to be imperial how would that society?  What do you do with all your metric tools, rulers and books? 

And about neuroplasticity, you go ahead ask an older master in any field you like to change the basic units they work with and see what happens.

I agree that it needs to be done tho. The international system is clearly superior. How many good people are not maximizing their potential because they can't add or subtract fractions when simple decimals do nicely.

If I asked you to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

Just in case, the metric system is the superior system and should be adopted internationally, I just don't know how a society would go about doing that in an orderly fashion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2019, 03:15:40 AM »
Exactly the area around the Greenland crack as talked about in the following thread:,2839.msg232576.html#msg232576

An awesome image of the area I'm referring to, as posted by uniquorn in the above thread

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 25, 2019, 05:07:51 PM »
Tesla has lost about $7 Billion in its history. Thus there is $7 Billion less stuff than there would have been without Tesla.

That's all?

Still, 7 billion in losses for its history, looking at 24B of revenue this year seems like a pretty good deal to me. Not to mention factories, stores, supercharger networks and last but not least, software.

To be fair, the company Tesla does exist as a result of these $7B in losses, which is currently valued at like $45B $56B

There, fixed it for you buddy.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 25, 2019, 02:45:27 PM »
Any source that links the wiring system to the Y? It seems to me that such a change is likely to be implemented in every new vehicle.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2019, 11:32:52 PM »
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 24, 2019, 05:13:10 PM »
This is temporary no matter what.

If the fires continue, then it wasn't the power lines. Services will be restored to places that didn't burn.

If the fires stop, then fires are worse than power outages. The grid becomes unfeasible, energy independence will become the financial priority it really is. Californians will solve the problem.

That said, I think the fires will continue, and they'll find some other thing to blame so they can all feel better.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 04:37:37 PM »
A few months ago, during the record floods that delayed the planting season,  I saw a video where they interview an Army corps of engineering official in charge of the levees of some flooded place. When asked a similar question that I asked KkK, was he rebuilding at 20th century standards or was he preparing for the future, the coward said, "that is not my expertise". The guy designing the levees is so afraid of even talking about climate change that he is ignoring climate change in his calculation. People will die because of his cowardice induced dereliction of duty.

That KkK prefers to ignore the question is nothing. That decision-makers are also ignoring this question is the makes everything worse.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:19:19 PM »
Should we just fix the decades-old levees or should we pretend that stronger waters are expected?

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:12:45 PM »
Yeah, in general, the more they source locally, the higher the margins (CO2 benefits are just bonus). But because the body and the batteries will be sourced and made locally, the import of motor and inverters may fall within the definition of "locally manufactured".

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 24, 2019, 02:54:52 PM »
Giga 3 is much more than just an assembly plant because it has stamping, paint, and battery pack assembly. Battery cells are locally sourced.  Importing the motors might be a big win if transportation economics make sense.

But in many ways, Giga 3 is a giant assembly plant to build a Model 3 at a price that can reach as many Chinese customers as possible.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 24, 2019, 02:25:07 PM »
 The efficiencies produced by technological efficiency gains could be very significant(>5%). We've seen patents for automated cabling, impressive stamping presses and I'm sure battery pack assembly is evolving quickly. The quest for the alien dreadnought is not over yet.

 But I think that most of it comes from economies of scale. Fremont is now producing 6.1 k Model 3 a week on the same line they were producing 3k Model 3 a week on Q3 2018.

As an example, motors:

 In the conference call, they mentioned that the front motor of the old model S/X was a drag on profits, so they switch that motor for a Model 3 motor  for increased power and range and decreased cost. At the same time, they increased the economic efficiency of the Model 3 motor line.

 Back during the ramp it was mentioned that motor production speed was quite excellent.  Model Y very likely uses the same motors as Model 3, so the initial CAPEX for the Y motors is already done and economies of scales induced by the Y will further improve the 3's margins.
 It may be that Tesla exports motors from Giga 1 to Giga 3 for a further efficiency increase, but transportation may offset that difference.

Another example is software. The price of FSD has gone up significantly, but most of that revenue is not recognized. The release of the smart summon feature allowed them to recognize part of that revenue increasing margins. There is much more FSD revenue to be recognized in the future both deferred and potential.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 23, 2019, 04:31:46 PM »
Oren, I may have the rare opportunity to correct you. The transfer switch is an almost trivial component of an on-grid solar installation. If the panels are on the grid, they can be safely cut off from the grid with a simple switch. So I don't think grid protection has anything to do with why panels are not used directly.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 23, 2019, 02:25:25 PM »
Would it be possible for me to put up some solar panels on the balcony?

That is entirely up to your landlord.

How large do you think the panels must be for generating 500W in this situation?

Probably larger than would comfortably fit on your balcony. But let's say the landlord has foresight and decides to sell to his tenants back up power for their refrigerators and lights. Then the rooftop of your apartment coupled with wind, batteries and very efficient refrigerators and lights should provide you the back up you need to keep your food from spoiling and your toes from hitting the side of the door at 3 in the morning.

I guess $1000 can be split over several poor households if they cooperate in blackouts. One has to open their house for sharing the fridge space and perhaps cooking. It could be fun if you don't have stressful jobs.

In my experience, under emergency situations, cooperation starts spontaneously and it goes viral. I hear that competition is the same way but in the opposite direction.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 23, 2019, 02:13:14 PM »
Is this because of the terms of contract with the utility, and/or the way the solar is hooked up?

My understanding is that it is a technical problem. Solar energy from the panels is too variable to rely on it for large loads relative to the capacity of the panels. I believe there exist inverters that can provide some power without batteries, but they only reduce the variability problem. Starting the refrigerator motor on a rainy day will probably damage your device.

Batteries fill that gap very nicely.

 To KiwiGriff's point, each Powerwall has 13.5kWh of usable power. That's a heck of a lot of power for many households. Small homes and apartments can easily get away with far fewer energy requirements if they only need to power the refrigerator, especially if good refrigerator discipline is kept.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 23, 2019, 04:50:15 AM »
How long does that take? How many years for it to take effect? Will all houses be like that?

If humanity decides to do this? Inside a decade every new building should have some sort of energy independence, and retrofits will be common. The grid should still exist but power distribution should be very different.

What can poor people do next year to prepare for the backouts? Buy candles? How do they cook their food? The fridge?

1. For lights, rechargeable flashlights provide some light for little money. Candles are inefficient and dangerous.

2. For food preservation in the refrigerator, they should freeze as many water bottles as possible before the blackouts. This ice will keep the food cold for longer. But the cold won't make it past 48 hours during hot days. Energy independence is needed for secured refrigeration.

After Maria a popular item was a "solar refrigerator kit", basically a few solar panels, a few lead batteries, inverters, and switches. This is enough to power the refrigerator, lights and other small appliances.  But a few thousand dollars are out of reach of what I would call poor people.

3. For cooking, small propane stoves can be very cheap and they work perfectly fine.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 22, 2019, 02:05:51 PM »
What can they do?

Wait until prices are low enough. The more rich and middle-class people buy these systems, the cheaper they will become.

  If we are talking about homeowners living in poverty, once these systems become so good that they become part of the house like water heaters the initial cost of the system will be included in the mortgage.

 If we are talking about renters or people that live in government housing, once again the problem is on the people owning the housing, wether it is government, corporation or other not so poor people.

That is precisely the reason I cheer for Tesla with all my heart. If they succeed the chances that I, a relatively poor person, can achieve energy independence increase exponentially. Once energy is secured the most important layer of security against climate change is covered.

CO2 benefits are just the cherry on top.

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: October 22, 2019, 01:48:47 PM »
We know that if we block solar radiation in the Arctic summer we reduce the melting. Easy peasy.

But how do we increase freezing during winter?

Large floating platforms (in the hundreds or thousands of KM^2 scale) that will lower albedo, gather snow and dampen waves. The idea is to simulate land fast ice in the middle of the ocean to "seed" sea ice. Once the sea ice is seeded the polar night takes care of the rest.

This will allow the open ocean to close as early as possible giving it as much time to thicken as possible.

Like all geoengineering solutions, this must be done at the same time as CO2 is reduced, forests are regrown and pollution is eliminated.

Time is running out, maximizing the life of the Arctic will buy us some time.

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