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Messages - Killian

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1
You are all much more polite about this than you were about my El Nino/ASIE theory.

 ;)

I  suggest overlaying the EN's over the AO and extent and see what you get. ICYMI, my theory was that an EN has a negative impact on ASI within two summers of the EN, which would usually equate to between a few months and something less than 18 months.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 12:09:03 PM »
Another big increase will turn further years into bin "A". Maybe March 1st for the start of the melting season thread should be delayed...
Thanks Stephan.
Indeed, March 1st was predicated on a lack of rebound, while a rebound we did indeed get. Back to waiting.

BTW, kudos to those who predicted the rebound by looking at the weather.

Broken clocks and all that, but seems to have been a good call at the moment.

I think with 170k added back on in two days, leaving 140k to a new peak, that peak seems somewhat likely. Yes, the AO indicates some increased temperatures as the circumpolar weaken a bit, but neutral isn't an indicator of melt, I'd think, so we may see a slowing in ice re-growth - but that is expected to be followed by colder conditions as extrapolated from a strongly positive AO.

All this predicated on the AO doing what is roughly indicated. It doesn't always do that.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 27, 2021, 04:57:57 AM »
Unless there is some rebound (or an additional crash), we will change over to a melting season thread on March 1st.

March 1 might be a bit early.

Given the predicted AO, and that we only need +50k for five days, I can pretty easily see a new peak well into March. Put another way, less than 18k/day till March 12 would give us a new peak. Then, again, the AO is supposedly headed to neutral over the next days.


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 26, 2021, 05:38:28 AM »
Regardless, with the AO possibly going positive +3 through mid-March, the chance of a higher peak is still pretty good.

Would you expect that to affect the low hanging fruit in the Barents?

Data to 23rd:

I have no opinion on that. That sort of narrowly focused question is for the numbers folk, not me, a systems/trends guy.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 26, 2021, 05:30:12 AM »
I used JAXA to do an eyeball analysis and no other year in their record has a pre-peak decline this long or this deep, at least not in the same rough time frame. Several have fairly deep declines, but no more than about 2/3 as deep, but none has a decline this long; they are all around half as long or shorter.

Interesting or just an anomaly?

Regardless, with the AO possibly going positive +3 through mid-March, the chance of a higher peak is still pretty good.

Another slight decline today. A comparison with some other low max years:

OK, so I just went through comparing 2021 with every other year head-to-head. Turns out there were a couple I underestimated, but the central fact is still true: None equal this year. Significantly, just two years ago there was a 280 sq km pre-peak decline.

We now stand at roughly 310 for JAXA.

I think we are seeing a form of "wobbling" (re chaos) in the climate system.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 25, 2021, 07:32:29 AM »
I used JAXA to do an eyeball analysis and no other year in their record has a pre-peak decline this long or this deep, at least not in the same rough time frame. Several have fairly deep declines, but no more than about 2/3 as deep, but none has a decline this long; they are all around half as long or shorter.

Interesting or just an anomaly?

Regardless, with the AO possibly going positive +3 through mid-March, the chance of a higher peak is still pretty good.

Another slight decline today. A comparison with some other low max years:

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 09, 2020, 04:58:38 AM »
Francis and Wu are investigating early northern Arctic terrestrial snow melt as helping *slow* late summer sea ice melt.

Video:

Paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047

8
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 29, 2020, 10:54:25 PM »
Wrt the importance of hydrate/clathrate destabilisation, Semiletov and Shakhova have been running field campaigns like this for over a decade. Every few years we hear dramatic reports of the most methane ever bubbling out of shallow Siberian seas, and social media is set off in a panic over the clathrate gun hypothesis.
So far though, the reality is that there has been no significant increase in methane emissions over the Arctic (at least up to 2017)

Three years ago? You've noticed the extreme heat in the Arctic the last 2 years, no?

Quote
and nearly every major study that's looked at the topic in detail disagrees with the clathrate gun hypothesis too.

Not germane. We don't need a clathrate gun for very dangerous climate change.  Between the clathrates and the permafrost, I believe there is something like 4 to 5 times the amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere. Everything is falling apart at a little over 400 and started falling apart, by my estimate, at just over 315. (The first signs of extent losses started in 1953 according to the graphs. Between lag time and CO2 ppm at that time, I estimate it started, or the effects were first triggered, just after 300ppm, around 1920-1930.) Say we lose 20% of that CH4/CO2, that's 250 to 300 more ppm, and perhaps a lot faster than most people think. And, I repeat, things are already at emergency levels on human time scales.

Quote
That's not to say I'd personally rule the hypothesis or the significance of the current field observations, but they definitely require some context.

In my opinion, the wrong context. I have been saying for a decade or so, the mid-range of the science is not what the scientists need to be talking to the public and policy people about, it's the risk. The focus has been on not saying what is not proveable rather than focusing on the risk of what is. And the risk, dear friends, is the collapse of society. We're already triggering a mass extinction (if the lack of bugs doesn't have you waking with the screaming meemies, you may not fully understand what's going on with the ecosystem.)

It does not matter exactly how much CH4 is getting released today; what matters is the risk that rapid emissions could doom us to a future where we just can't decarbonize at all.

It's all well and good to talk science, but it is not ok, at all, to ignore the risk of the results of the changes nor to claim a crystal ball that says, well, by golly, based on today, it's all still there! Should we worry so much? Nah... That the clathrates are almost certainly being perforated at all indicates they may become perforated extensively and that a rather rapid increase in CH4 is entirely plausible.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 29, 2020, 10:33:59 PM »
Winter is supposed to be "off-season" for ASIF, when we twiddled our thumbs and waited for the next melt season.  Freeze season is not supposed to be this "interesting."  Now the refreeze race to a depleted maximum is almost as interesting as the annual September minimum derby.

However, completely expected, at least in terms of the trend. I spend most of my "climate" talk time over at RealClimate. One of the observations I made over there in previous years was that the trend for later refreeze and the effects of that in less ice volume and weaker ice: Less time for freezing should lead to thinner ice and less extent, at least in trend, and ice age definitely affects density and resilience.

This was a couple years ago, I believe.

And, of course, the slower the freeze, the more energy input into the ocean/seas, the faster it melts in summer and the greater area the area exposed to insolation, and the later it melts and... round and round we go.

Bifurcations-R-Us.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: July Poll
« on: September 17, 2020, 11:21:58 AM »
Scenario 3: Poor ice retention conditions ease up in a week or two and we get the same post-2012  pattern of good to very good conditions for ice retention the rest of the summer. 3.5 ~ 3.9.

And so it was.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:39:33 PM »
Cheers, SH!

With today's near double century drop, the thought of reaching the 2012 minimum begins to seem a little less far fetched.
If we follow the melt of 2010, we'll end up just 125k off 2012...

Interesting factoid: Extent decrease from Aug 13 to Sept 1 in '12 and '00? Exactly the same according to JAXA.

 :o

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 02:40:10 PM »
Speaks for itself.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 05:33:16 AM »

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

With respect, I challenge the idea, at this stage in the 2020 melt season, that stats are great and that patterns matter.

The stats are not representing an accurate picture and patterns only matter up to the point of a paradigm change in a sequence of events. I suggest that 2020 represents that paradigm change.

Thanks for repeating what I said.

;-)

(That post was pithy. I have made greater explanations previously. The idea is more general: Trends and patterns matter, too.)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 07:22:21 PM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

7th

Quote
2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th

7th. Oops.

Quote
then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Now this should be interesting... Seeing 50k, can I get a 60? Going once, going twice...

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

As for the rest of the season, Friv said "Tomorrow 2020 is going to drop below 2019 on JAXA and it won't be passed up again until after the minimum." So, I looked at some of those stats and 2020 needs to average 19k+ per day to be lower than 2019 on Sept. 17th. 2019 averaged only 11.11k/day in September.

Hmmm....

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:18:15 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

7th

Quote
2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th

7th. Oops.

Quote
then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Now this should be interesting... Seeing 50k, can I get a 60? Going once, going twice...

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:31:13 AM »
I haven't seen anything about this on this forum, so:

Last Canadian ice shelf goes bust.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canadas-last-fully-intact-arctic-233003096.html

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 09:59:25 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

Nailed. Not important, perhaps (ah, but patterns do matter...), but fun.

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th, then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Looks like I might be a bit early on 2019.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 09:09:52 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th, then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Rationale: The compacting of the ice makes it difficult for extent to change other than at or slower than averages, though area may fall significantly, particularly if extent increases. However, 2019's curve flattens over those time periods, also.

We knew the low extent numbers would allow weird things to happen. The ice-saving compaction is one of them: Put stuff in a gyre and it accumulates to the center, creating a negative feedback for melt rates.

Nothing you all don't know, just me playing with trends and patterns and putting myself on the line because, why not?

Anyone care to join in?

Holding up.

I saw the responses. Area is far more important than extent, of course, but extent has that easily understood visual element.

I think that *in general* conditions turning toward the more ice-preserving modes of the years since 2012 is very interesting. However, I've not had time for several days, so if there has been a shift back to high export and high insolation, ignore what I just said.

:-)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 11:55:53 AM »
Prediction:

2020 crosses 2012 by August 10th, most likely between Aug. 6th and Aug 8th.

2020 crosses 2019 sometime between Aug 9th and Aug 13th, then crosses back into 2nd lowest territory between Aug 13th and Aug 21st.

Rationale: The compacting of the ice makes it difficult for extent to change other than at or slower than averages, though area may fall significantly, particularly if extent increases. However, 2019's curve flattens over those time periods, also.

We knew the low extent numbers would allow weird things to happen. The ice-saving compaction is one of them: Put stuff in a gyre and it accumulates to the center, creating a negative feedback for melt rates.

Nothing you all don't know, just me playing with trends and patterns and putting myself on the line because, why not?

Anyone care to join in?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 06:46:41 AM »
Made a table of 2020 extrapolations with some particular dates set as sort of "mile markers" for a quick reference to how the ice is doing. I think these three options bound outcomes pretty well.
   Thanks Killian.  Those are very interesting comparative extrapolations.  I find them more informative than the debate about the degree of compaction.  The fact that your extrapolation from 5 low melt years stills ends up at 3.6 M km2 is remarkable and well below the straight line trend...

    Taking 2012 out of the "Worst case" scenario yields an estimate similar to the "Bad case" scenario at ca. 3.4-3.5.  That reinforces a final estimate of around 3.5.  That would still leave 2012 in 1st place, but not by much.

Thanks for the feedback. I think the patterns are vital. There is too much focus on data points here - and everywhere, frankly. I'm a permaculturist, so looking at things "from patterns to details" is default. Both sides tell you something, but the patterns give the details their overall shape and form.

By their nature, the details will engender more conversation, but I'd like to see more noticing of the patterns. Those two huge drops in 2012, e.g. One we know, but what about the first? Nobody seems interested, but that could be a vital clue into potential early season melt risks. Without that first one, 12's drop isn't nearly as astonishing.

E.g.

Quote
I wonder how warm water melt momentum in 2020 is still unexpressed in the real time measurements.  And with warmer water the chance of cyclone is also lurking in the wings.

That's THE question: How energy has entered the system? How much was already there?

I fully believe we hit a climate shift sometime in the last 2 to 5 years, or else the last two years don't really make sense globally and in the Arctic. Patterns.

We shall see.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:25:38 PM »

I have a quibble with these sorts of projections: They don't take into account the patterns of melt. <snip>

I largely agree.
<snip>
We are in uncharted territory here, but there's no harm is playing with the data a bit!

Indeed.  We are in fact wrestling with a "sum of sums" problem.


What stuff like BFTV does is give us limits inside which our "fractal equations" play out.


I wasn't complaining, I had spent the evening doing some of my own before seeing that posted, ironically. I was wishing for from-the-trend extrapolations, too. I had done that a couple days ago but thought they were too rough to post. But, hey, I just did. Someone with more skill can do better ones.

Cheers

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:15:51 PM »
Made a table of 2020 extrapolations with some particular dates set as sort of "mile markers" for a quick reference to how the ice is doing. I think these three options bound outcomes pretty well.

Here's a really rough attempt to extrapolate 2020 from the July trend.


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 09:10:54 PM »
Made a table of 2020 extrapolations with some particular dates set as sort of "mile markers" for a quick reference to how the ice is doing. I think these three options bound outcomes pretty well.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 08:12:07 PM »
Latest simple projection has 7 of the last 20 melt seasons causing a record low, and the 10 year average melt gives a low of 3.53 million km2. Slowest melt (2001) gives a low of 4.39 million km2.

I have a quibble with these sorts of projections: They don't take into account the patterns of melt. Virtually every season rather closely follows a few overall patterns, and virtually every melt season has the specific pattern that the slope of the line in the first half of July continues into mid- or late August. Just tagging on the melt from this point on onto the end of 2020 is not likely to capture the actual potential outcome.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 10:40:26 AM »
Quote
Quote
Quote
When did the negative AO affecting ASI become a thing? I remember being roundly criticized for saying this in past years - though I've been saying so since at least 2011 or 12.
It isn’t, although it has a small impact, it is really not much compared to more major happenings, the arctic atmosphere patterns, NAO included only represent
Correlation analysis reveals that none of these patterns explain more than 10% of the variance in sea ice melt as defined here (explains 5%, 10%, and 10%, respectively)

Well, then it's *a* thing, just not *the* thing.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 07:26:30 PM »
What numbers do we get if we use the most konservative numbers from now and onward?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 06:09:06 PM »
The negative AO seems will last at least until end of July. I think that is enough to weaken the ice. I have to say this summer is bad for the ice. The ice seems to be not disturbed by the storm. No storm, heat is still stored in the ocean. No storm, the ekman pumping does not begin. But the storm will be gradually strong in August. Stronger storm with thin ice, horrible!

When did the negative AO affecting ASI become a thing? I remember being roundly criticized for saying this in past years - though I've been saying so since at least 2011 or 12.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 05:58:20 PM »
Latest projection has 7 of the last 20 years beating 2012, and the 10 year average melt reaching a low of 3.56 million km2

But that's only if you attach the curves as they occurred in those years. If you first match those curves to the slope of 2020, because all but three years maintained their slopes from early July through mid-August, and those three didn't vary greatly, you get far worse numbers.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 18, 2020, 05:14:36 PM »
Apart from an obstinate lump of solid looking ice on the West side of the New Siberian Islands, sea ice in the Kara Sea is basically kaput. But this sea never completely melts out. This year?
I don't think NSIDC area will ever reach zero unless they apply a mask in the Gulf of Ob and the Yenisey Gulf. The NSIDC algorithm thinks ice is present there year-round.

Of course it will if things continue as they are, just maybe not in your lifetime.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:18:41 PM »
If 2020 holds the pattern...

Do you have an estimate where that projection would land us towards the end of the melt season? Does it dip sub 3.00? Would also be cool to see a metric of how closely previous years follow the trend! (Though idk if that is more work than it is worth)

That's why I posted it. Just look at the yellow line: By mid-August, it's a new record. By the end of the line, it's a very healthy new record, with 2 to 5 weeks of melt season left. We have to pray this summer is absurdly anomalous such that the last 2 to 3 weeks are completely out of the ordinary and we then get a much cooler and calmer August than we've seen in many a year.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

And currently 15%+ above average.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 16, 2020, 07:43:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 15th, 2020:
     6,965,917 km2, a century drop of -151,088 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.

-381k

Just a week ago I thought -298 by the 24th would be bad news.
 :o
 :(

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 07:25:08 AM »
I was looking at JAXA ASI Extent and a pattern caught my eye. (I know there is data essentially showing this, but I'm more visual and prefer patterns to data sets and numbers.) Essentially, what is happening in the first half of July keeps happening through mid- to late August. The exceptions are not dramatic.

If 2020 holds the pattern...

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 05:15:10 AM »
WOW!!! The last few weeks have been incredible. I don’t have the way with words that Friv has, but this has been fun to watch!

Below is a map posted today on Twitter by Rick Thoman that I think will be very important to watch as we go forward and think about a possible record.  It shows the sea ice rankings for this day in each of the Arctic seas.

Worth keeping in mind that Greenland Sea number is actually worse the bigger it is as it indicates export out of the Arctic basin. At that high a number, it's kinda equivalent to a 1~3.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:06:26 AM »
This is where I think the minimum will be.

The thinner white line it's my operational prediction.

The hazy white is where I see potentially low concentration  ice left.

I feel very confident about this.   And that's crazy.

That line does not seem to correlate well with the ice concentration. So what are the specifics behind the line?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:02:26 AM »
Is there anything in play that indicates a shift in winds that would halt this constant flow of ASI directly into the lion's mouth of Fram Strait? I mean, if this keeps up like it did in 2012, we're likely in big trouble, no?

So, anything in the dynamics looking to act as a hysteresis on the winds/ice direction? Anything at all?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 07:57:58 AM »
The odds of finishing >4 mil sq km are very low IMO.

Agreed, as per my prediction on the July September minimum thread. What really scares me if the extent is 300k sq km or more into record territory in mid-July and the high melt conditions persist for the summer, I don't see how we avoid a new low.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 07:51:47 AM »

Just average for the five lowest extent years puts 2020 298 sq km. below 2019 two weeks from now. Hold on to your hats.

So you take the lowest value for the date (this year) and extrapolate from there the biggest losses, and you get a new record low? Who would have thought?

 :) ;)
Yep, it's not a great mathematical surprise but thinking about it, what are the odds 2020 is not among the top five loss years for the rest of the month? Or the rest of the season?

CO2e forcing is stronger every year, 3 out of last 5 years are among the top five and 2020 has certainly proven to be a strong melt season.

But as we all know, since 2012 the mid and late summers have turned positive for max ice retention and that could happen again. But the lower the ice extent at any given marker, the more likely better conditions later don't avoid a new low. Two of those years were in the 80k range. That's nothing spectacular, yet we still end up with a large new low record anomaly.

That said, I am of the opinion the climate is having or has had a phase change the last couple of years, and change, in general, has jumped to a faster rate of warming. My primary logic for this is that there is no unexpected or unusual forcing in play the last two years, yet look at global temps. Where is all that energy coming from? So... yeah... perhaps not so surprising with the hindsight of how this season has gone.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 07:42:24 AM »

Just average for the five lowest extent years puts 2020 298 sq km. below 2019 two weeks from now. Hold on to your hats.

So you take the lowest value for the date (this year) and extrapolate from there the biggest losses

That is not what I did. I didn't check which years had the biggest losses, I just took the years with the lowest ultimate extent. For any 2-week period, virtually any year could be "the biggest loss." 2018, e.g., averaged 104. If I'd wanted to cherry-pick, I could have, and would have.

Quote
you get a new record low? Who would have thought?

 :) ;)

I thought it was an interesting point as the 100 sq km+ melt days do not have to continue, do they? Just an average of those otherwise random years still results in a wider gap than exists at present. That bodes ill to my mind.

Your mileage clearly varies.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 09:06:43 AM »
These are the daily average ASI extent reductions for the five lowest years in the record for the next 15 days:

2012 July 9 - 24 =   93.33

2019 July 9 - 24 =   88.66

2016 July 9 - 24 =   80.00

2007 July 9 - 24 = 108.66

2015 July 9 - 24 = 108.66

The daily average for the 5 is 479.31/5 = 95.86. Over 15 days, that totals 1473.93. The current record low on the 24th is 6620. Current extent is 7760. 7760 - 1437.93 = 6322.07.

Just average for the five lowest extent years puts 2020 298 sq km. below 2019 two weeks from now. Hold on to your hats.

40
My difficulty with this poll is my prediction (scenarios, preferably) is based on a little data point that comes up in July but not before the end date of the poll!

I went with 3 - 3.5 as a worst-case scenario based on current conditions. I won't be able to change my poll vote, but will update in comments sometime before 7/15 .

Scenario 1: Ice keeps flowing out Fram, melt conditions remain close to ideal, a significant dipole develops, maybe a nice big cyclone. 2.9 ~ 3.25m.

Scenario 2. Ice keeps flowing out Fram, melt conditions remain close to ideal. 3.25m - 3.5

Scenario 3: Poor ice retention conditions ease up in a week or two and we get the same post-2012  pattern of good to very good conditions for ice retention the rest of the summer. 3.5 ~ 3.9.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 11:47:00 AM »
I do believe compaction in the CAB is better for the ice longer in the melt season than dispersion would be. You only need too see 2016 how dispersion can affect things and actually arguably give a misleading extent total.

I don't think the lowered extent is misleading if one bears in mind context. The same extent with very dispersed ice on one hand and compacted ice on the other are not the same. I understand what you meant by misleading, but it's just not the most accurate way to talk about it, maybe?

I think you mean a low extent due to compactions is good better overall than more dispersed ice with a higher extent. Not misleading, just different animals.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 08:50:09 AM »
Just a quick observation that this graphic of ice movement has pointed straight down the throat of Fram Strait every time I have looked at it this season. That has been sporadic, which also means it has been random, but I have seen it look no other way this season.

That's 2012, folks.

Worse, I have noticed anything mentioned about dipoles setting up, but in 2012 it was the dipole phenomenon that dominated the rush of ice out of Fram Strait, iirc.

That's not 2012, folks, yet here we are watching it flow out into oblivion.

I was certain of a new 2nd lowest record this year as of a bit more than a month ago. Now? I'm wondering if it might not just be a new record, period.

All this speaks to my contention we hit a phase shift in recent years and that phase shift is an overall increase in warming. What else explains the temps and events we're seeing?

And that so much of the melt is over the ESS is disconcerting at best.

If someone has a whisker of a hope as to why the summer will shift to the typical favorable low melt conditions we've seen pretty much every summer since 2012, please share them. If this season is as bad as it seems to be shaping up to, that canary is good and dead.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?
« on: November 06, 2019, 07:09:35 PM »
If this model has the accuracy claimed, expect a new low/near new low in the 2020-2022 period.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-163608017.html

Per many discussions over the years, and particularly this past summer, I think we can generally agree on a couple/few points:

1. Weather matters.
2. Insolation in June is really important.
3. Export via Fram is THE big driver of losses in-season.
4. Bottom melt is THE big driver over time.
5. Powerful storms, at the right time, matter.
6. Pacific heat and humidity affect ASI.

Debatelable: El Nino matters. But:

EN in 2015-16 = new 2nd low in '16.
EN in 2018 = new 2nd lowest in '19.

I suggest a big EN in 2020 - or any EN in 2020, will have a new 2nd lowest within the two summers. It's pretty simple: You drag a bunch of heat up out of the deep Pacific and unload it on NA/SA, some of it's going to end up in the Arctic.

Of course, we could get '07 and '12 wind patterns before then and get a new 2nd or - unlikely ('12 truly was a massive outlier) - a new low, but I'll put my $$ on the next EN to get us closest or past 2012.

Cheers

44
I think simple applies here, and is what I was going to say before reading (most) of the thread:

1. If it gets cold enough, ice forms.

2. If it gets warm enough, ice melts.

3. There is no issue of whether or not 1 and 2 are true.

4. I was of the impression everyone understood we'd still have ice at the poles unless or until it gets *really* warm. (<-- I speaks science. ;-) )

5. *Really* warm here is almost certainly past the point of supporting anything like current civilizationm, so the point is only of scientific interest, relatively moot wrt policy.

FYI, 6. there was a paper a year or two ago re Antarctica that, as an aside within the paper, an instantaneous return to 260 (iirc) ppm was modeled. The poles began stabilizing "within decades."

Ergo, 7. no matter what you think of sea ice and bifurcations, the only thing that matters is returning to sub-300 ppm saves an awful lot of hurt in the future. --> Mitigation is key.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:24:42 AM »
Final JAXA outcomes?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:00:10 AM »
Some August data breakdowns and comparisons. PM me if you want the spreadsheets.


47
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 31, 2019, 05:11:48 PM »
Or do they coddle their citizens, churning out obedient comfortable potatoes of humans with no real thoughts or passions or drives on their own, while relying on hordes of immigrant laborers who are simultaneously destroying their societies from the inside out?

This sort of thinking makes engagement a complete waste of time. It represents very deep ideological underpinnings, most typically from an Authoritarian type thinking style, which i not amenable to alternative input.

That's a polite way of saying I find it both very much in error and unpalatable.

Interesting that some of the happiest of industrialized nations are demonized like this, no?

My thoughts on all this later.

48
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 31, 2019, 04:44:44 PM »
Where is the evidence for societies working well with "less skewered wealth distribution"? In essence this means everyone is poor.

With an extremely limited concept of "poor," yes. With a sophisticated one reflecting the best of being human, no.

At this time "rich" or even "comfortable" means:

* Inequality
* Living close to personal (self, family) collapse
* Debt
* Wealthy people making the rules, e.g. 70% of laws favoring the wealthy previous 3 to 4 decades in the U.S.
* Wealth of the richest rising vastly for 4 decades
* Real income of the bottom 97% or so stagnant last four decades.
* Destruction of the environment via waste > pollution
* Destruction of the environment by direct alteration
* Destruction of the environment by increasing heat stress
* Billions hungry
* Billions living in wretched conditions

And on an on.

Being "poor" means, in intact regenerative (the only ones are aboriginal) communities:

* Enough to eat
* A home
* Cooperation
* Personal autonomy
* Virtually no hierarchy
* Egalitarian decision-making
* Sharing > Commons, so no rich, no poor, and no sense of those words in the way you use the concept here
* Few to no mental health issues
* Rare, if any, punishment for behavior
* Little directed/organized education; learning in situ
* Happy, intelligent, confident children and people

Etc.

You may want to reconsider what you think "poor" means considering the future that is coming.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2019, 04:02:46 PM »
...It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.
Oh look you are back at a convenient time yet you are still wrong, nothing has changed!

How can you say they are wrong on a forwardlooking statement? And, I essentially agree, though I'd put it more likely to be the 30th or 31st. Just look at the trend.

Worth noting, 2019 fell to 3rd the very same day, the 26th, making weatherdude correct and bbr wrong.

I, of course, was very wrong in being four days late with my guess. However, JAXA extent is tied for 3rd on the 30th (according to the graph and ignoring gerontocrat's 0.3k which must be well withing any error bars for the data), which I had predicted to occur on the 30th or 31st, so 1 out of 2 ain't bad.  ;) :P ::)

Careful with predictions... for or against.

And, it's not always raw data that tells one what they need to know. Trends, patterns matter.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 28, 2019, 04:43:22 AM »
I cannot access the ADS-NIPR (JAXA) page.

4.37, most likely.

The last three conversions were correct. None of the 10 NSIDC to JAXA conversions are off by more than 30k. 4 are correct, 2 are off by 10k, 2 by 20k, 2 by 30k.

Of the JAXA to NSIDC conversions 4 are correct, 2 are off by 10k, 2 are off by 20k, 1 by 30k, 1 by 40k.


Recent JAXA <-> NSIDC Conversions

                 NSIDC                     NSIDC          5-D -     NSIDC 5D         JAXA -->
                      5-D       JAXA      Daily         JAXA      --> JAXA         NSIDC         
08/16/2019   4.96        4.70      4.90          0.26           4.69               4.98
08/17/2019   4.92        4.63      4.87          0.29           4.66               4.89
08/18/2019   4.89        4.56      4.79          0.33           4.59               4.85
08/19/2019   4.85        4.53      4.76          0.32           4.52               4.86
08/20/2019   4.81        4.51      4.73          0.30           4.49               4.83
08/21/2019   4.77        4.47      4.72          0.30           4.47               4.77
08/22/2019   4.73        4.44      4.63          0.29           4.42               4.74
08/23/2019   4.70        4.41      4.65          0.29           4.41               4.70
08/24/2019   4.68        4.39      4.67          0.29           4.39               4.68
08/25/2019   4.67        4.38      4.68          0.29           4.38               4.67
08/26/2019   4.66                     4.65                           4.37           

                     

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