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Messages - skanky

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The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: January 06, 2017, 01:07:44 PM »

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: December 16, 2016, 11:01:47 AM »
The second part of this post will be of interest to people here:
I expect more details, and maybe even the talks, will be availble on the AGU site.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2016, 10:59:45 AM »
Some people might find the first part of this post interesting, and maybe worth following up there:

(the rest is interesting but OT in this thread)

Glaciers / Re: Himalayan glaciers
« on: December 14, 2016, 11:00:20 AM »
Using declassified spy satellite images to determine longer term glacier changes:

Consequences / Re: Climate Change and Landslides
« on: December 14, 2016, 10:46:38 AM »
Cross-posting from Alaskan glaciers.
Alaskan landslides' connection with glacial melt. Usual source. :),467.msg96613.html#msg96613

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: December 14, 2016, 10:43:45 AM »

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: November 10, 2016, 12:50:17 PM »
More on the above, again, from the same website:

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: November 02, 2016, 10:50:35 PM »
Not sure if this maybe could have its own thread, but thought I'd put it here.

Just caught the last 5 minutes of today's episode of this, and it looks pretty good:

Not sure how long it will run, and I realise only UK based people will likely be able to watch it. That said, it may be worth playing with get_iplayer if you have linux.

I intend to put aside some time to watch it all from the start (even if there are some bad bits, there will be stuff worth watching).

Glaciers / Re: Himalayan glaciers
« on: October 28, 2016, 10:58:26 PM »

Here it is from the horse's mouth, as it were:

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice free predictions and their uncertainty
« on: September 09, 2016, 11:39:40 AM »
Ed Hawkins runs this blog, for those who may want to discuss it with him:


Glaciers / Re: Himalayan glaciers
« on: September 07, 2016, 10:26:54 AM »
On July 17, 2016, a huge stream of ice and rock tumbled down a narrow valley in the Aru Range of Tibet. When the ice stopped moving, it had spread a 30-meter-thick pile of debris across 10 square kilometers. Nine people, 350 sheep, and 110 yaks in the remote village of Dungru were killed during the avalanche.
The massive debris field makes this one of the largest ice avalanches ever recorded. The only event of a comparable size was a 2002 avalanche from Kolka Glacier in in the Caucasus , explained Andreas Kääb, a glaciologist at the University of Oslo.
A multispectral imager on the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellite captured an image of the debris field on July 21, 2016. The Operational Land Imager, a similar instrument on Landsat 8, acquired an image on June 24, 2016, that shows the same area before the avalanche.
The cause of the avalanche is unclear. “This is new territory scientifically,” said Kääb. “It is unknown why an entire glacier tongue would shear off like this. We would not have thought this was even possible before Kolka happened.”

Not 100% sure this is the right thread, but it seemed close enough:

Shipping routes across the Arctic are going to open up significantly this century even with a best-case reduction in CO2 emissions, a new study suggests.
University of Reading, UK, researchers have investigated how the decline in sea-ice, driven by warmer temperatures, will make the region more accessible.
They find that by 2050, opportunities to transit the Arctic will double for non ice-strengthened vessels.
These open-water ships will even be going right over the top at times.


The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using CMIP5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic-transit shipping. By mid-century for standard Open Water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice – ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by mid-century, and 13 days faster by late-century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse-gas emissions have a larger impact by late-century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in RCP8.5, double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial inter-annual variability. Moderately ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late-century.

Paper here:;jsessionid=9081A604A661F8DA0DF0B9DE5E3CD1C0.f03t02

There might be a blog post appear at Climate Lab Book at some point, seeing as Ed Hawkins is an author:

Glaciers / Re: Alpine Glaciers
« on: September 06, 2016, 12:11:45 PM »
More than 400 pieces of Alpine ice have been moved to a giant freezer - a first step in their journey to Antarctica.

The seemingly strange plan to send ice to the coldest place on Earth is part of a scientific mission to "rescue" some of the world's most endangered glacial ice.

Bubbles in old, deep glacial ice are frozen records of our past atmosphere.
Scientists say their purpose-built Antarctic ice bunker will keep these safe for future research.

"What we know for sure is that the ice will not be here in 50 or 100 years time - any glacier below 3,500m altitude will be gone by the end of the century," explained Jerome Chappellaz from France's National Centre for Scientific Research, one of the leaders of the project.

"[In the Alps], we're trying to recover ice cores from one of the glaciers that is in danger."
That glacier is at Col du Dome - just below the peak of Mont Blanc. It is one of two that the team has chosen to provide their frozen library with "reference ice" for regions where information on past climate and atmosphere is lacking.


UK assigns climate skeptic to head climate change committee

UKIP to chair assembly climate change committee despite scepticism
Wales Green Party leader Alice Hooker-Stroud said putting a UKIP politician in charge of a climate change committee was "absolutely ridiculous".

"It makes a complete mockery of Welsh politics and today I am ashamed to be governed by a group that could make this decision," she said.

Sigmetnow, this story fortunately relates to the Welsh Assembly, not Westminster.

That said, anything is possible should the increasingly odious Andrea Leadsom become our next Prime Minister with the support of the climate sceptic right wing of the Tory party!

Wales, of course, is a country the size of, well, Wales😊. However, they did unlike England, get to the semi-finals of the EURO 2016 football tournament, just edging out the mighty Iceland in the process.

Good things sometimes come in small parcels, it seems.

In the post Brexit gloom here, just 35 miles from the Welsh border, we could do with some good things right now.

Things change quickly, but the latest is that, with May's new cabinet, DECC no longer exists and instead Energy has now become part of the Business department, while Leadsome is the Environment minister. Something tells me that neither of those will be positive moves. :/

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 14, 2016, 12:50:18 PM »
Sort of wonder if Dark Snow and Black & Bloom (see below) need their own thread, a la Icebridge, but as Dark Snow posts are in here....

Black & Bloom is a UK project that's working alongside (and with what appears some overlap) Dark Snow, on Greenland. Lots of info. and updates, etc. here:

h/t Peter Sinclair (

Update from Sinclair:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 12, 2016, 04:56:18 PM »
Sort of wonder if Dark Snow and Black & Bloom (see below) need their own thread, a la Icebridge, but as Dark Snow posts are in here....

Black & Bloom is a UK project that's working alongside (and with what appears some overlap) Dark Snow, on Greenland. Lots of info. and updates, etc. here:

h/t Peter Sinclair (

Consequences / Re: Climate Change and Landslides
« on: June 29, 2016, 01:48:59 PM »
I'm sure there are other sources on this topic  ;D

Landslides caused by retreating glacier:

They're calling it the world's first eHighway—a 1.2-mile stretch of road in Sweden that's being used as a test site for battery-powered trucks that are charged as they drive beneath overhead wires.

The technology, which has been developed by the German engineering behemoth Siemens in partnership with the Swedish truck firm Scania, is still very much in the trial phase, but it allows specially designed trucks to draw power using "an intelligent pantograph." The pantograph (the mechanism used to connect the vehicle to the overhead wire) uses a special sensor system allows it to couple and uncouple with overhead electric lines at speeds of up to 90km/h (56mph). The truck draws power as it moves, while putting out no emissions. Their hybrid drive systems then allows them revert to diesel power when back on conventional roads.


Siemens is also developing another eHighway trial in California on behalf of Volvo, aiming to start tests between Long Beach and LA some time in 2017.

In parts of South Korea meanwhile, OLEVs (OnLine Electric Vehicles) have been on the roads since 2014. Buses on certain routes are charged using technology embedded in the road. It's essentially a giant magnetic resonance wireless power transmission setup, beaming power to receiving equipment up to 17cm above the road surface. The main issue with this approach is that large portions of the road need to be dug up: you need a wireless power transmission unit every five to 15 percent of the road's length.

Consequences / Re: Climate Change and Landslides
« on: June 21, 2016, 11:18:11 AM »
Another one form the same site, on a paper about fatal landslides in Europe:

The trend is clearly upwards over time, sharply so in terms of the number of landslides from about 2009 onwards, with a significant increase in losses as well.  This was not clear in my global data, and we did not see this trend in Latin America either, so this is a very interesting result.  Haque et al. (2016) suggest that the increase is primarily the result of large numbers of fatal landslides in Italy and Turkey (see the red triangles on the map above) and in the Balkan countries.  The cause of this change is not clear, but the authors note that most of these landslides occurred in mountain regions with a humid temperate climate.  This hints at a possible role of climate change.

Consequences / Climate Change and Landslides
« on: June 20, 2016, 04:08:12 PM »
Obviously  there are a number of ways that climate change can affect landslide instance and magnitude - precipitaiton changes being the most obvious.

To kick this thread off though, here's an article about a paper studying rockfalls in the Alps through permafrost melt:

It is clear that there has been a remarkable increase in the description of rockfall danger over the period, and that most of this has occurred in the last three decades.  Whilst an aspect of this could be a increased sensitivity to risk. Temme (2015) is clear that the major factor is increased rockfall activity.  In the analysis he also looked at the correlation of this increased rockfall risk with various physical factors, and found that there was a strong relationship with slope aspect.  This is consistent with increased rockfall activity occurring on slopes with an eastern or western aspect, where the freeze-thaw effect is known to be strongest.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 11, 2016, 04:52:11 PM »
GST relative to "pre-industrial" (1850-1900 baseline):

From Ed Hawkins at Climate Lab Book

Breaking news, in today's budget, the UK chancellor...
...announces tax cuts for the oil and gas industry. Petroleum revenue tax is effectively abolished...


Quote freezing fuel duty. He says the move means a £75 a year saving for the average driver.

Which jars with their recently stated aim to cut emissions to zero later this century. I guess "later" being the operative term.  ::)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 08, 2016, 05:33:11 PM »
Antarctica, but still...
Sentinel 3 image. Click through for a description.

Ice cracked by European Space Agency, on Flickr

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 17, 2015, 12:56:56 PM »
UKMO's annual global temp. forecast:

Looks like they expect it to be the 3rd record in a row, or thereabouts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 08, 2015, 07:09:08 PM »
The Sierra Club, Environmental Media Association and RYOT launched today the first-ever virtual reality climate change public service announcement, which offers 360 degree panoramic shots that catapults viewers into the heart of the Arctic to explore frontline communities and melting glaciers.

Chairman of CBI (Confederation of British Industry) criticises UK government's cancellation of the renewables subsidy:

"We need all countries to pull in the same direction at the Paris Climate Summit (in November) to give firms the certainty and confidence they need to invest in the green economy for the long run".

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: September 25, 2015, 11:43:15 AM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: September 25, 2015, 11:42:02 AM »
Drax pulls out of CCS on cost grounds, due to government pulling renewable subsidy:

Consequences / Re: Will Climate Change Lead to Genocide?
« on: September 18, 2015, 05:37:20 PM »
Snyder has a book out on this subject, called "Black Earth".
I've linked to the US Amazon page as there's an interesting interview with him on there, as well as a potted biography and other useful links, etc.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 16, 2015, 07:17:31 PM »

Great article.

Thanks, yes. That site is one of my daily reads.

EDIT to add:


This year, the start of the melt season in May and June was relatively cool in most of the Arctic Ocean, similar to 2013 and 2014, due to a lack of the persistent southerly winds which characterised the early melt season in 2012, and probably also due to quite cyclonic conditions, which may have increased cloud cover, reducing the amount of sunlight hitting the ice.

However in July the weather changed and sea ice rapidly melted and loss during this month was the third highest on record.

In August stormy conditions helped the ice to become dispersed while in late August the ice edge retreated further and a weakening sun meant meltponds rapidly froze over. As September began, ice edge retreat stalled.

This melt season demonstrates the ongoing vulnerability of the thinning sea ice cover. The long-term decline in summer sea ice extent has been linked to warming winter temperatures, wind-driven loss of multiyear sea ice and earlier loss of snow cover in the land bordering the Arctic Ocean - all of which serve to increase the vulnerability of the sea ice to melt during the summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 16, 2015, 10:20:10 AM »
This year’s minimum is 1.81 million square kilometers (699,000 square miles) lower than the 1981-2010 average. Sea ice cover melted at a relatively slow rate in June, the month when the Arctic receives the most solar energy. However, the rate of ice loss accelerated in July, and faster than normal loss rates continued through August, a transition month when ice losses typically begins to slow. A big “hole” appeared in the ice pack in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas in August. The huge opening allowed the ocean to absorb more solar energy, accelerating the melting process. While weather conditions in September could change the minimum extent number or date, it is unlikely that the ranking as the fourth lowest year on record will change when final numbers have been tallied.

“Arctic ice cover becomes less and less resilient and it doesn’t take as much to melt it as it used to,” Meier said. The sea ice cap, which used to be a solid sheet of ice, is now fragmented into smaller floes that are exposed to warm water on more sides. “In the past, Arctic sea ice was like a fortress. The ocean could only attack it from the sides. Now it’s like the invaders have tunneled in from underneath and the ice pack melts from within.”

From EOB:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: what's new in Greenland ?
« on: September 15, 2015, 03:44:58 PM »
Don't know if this is the best thread for this, but ARS have a good interview with Marco Tedesco on the equipment they use to study Greenland:

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: September 03, 2015, 12:03:31 PM »
Probably closure of a large coal fired plant in the UK:

It's noticeable how the (local) news coverage by the BBC doesn't mention climate change. The TV discussion last night mentioned a policy to move to less CO2 emitting forms, but there was no context to that.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 02, 2015, 10:21:29 AM »
This article on NASA's issues from SLR gives an indicator to future problems. Magnify these issues across the country, with multiple civilian ownership and critical infrastructure, etc. and contrast that to a single, scientific and engineering agency planning, then also consider the same issues across many different countries.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 28, 2015, 03:18:01 PM »

We might see a couple century's the next 3 days.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 11, 2015, 06:10:18 PM »
I didn't mean the colour orange, but the fruit. Two days ago the comparison was apples to oranges. But now both maps are apples (because the same date).

Sorry for the confusion.  :)

Sorry for going further OT but:

Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: August 10, 2015, 07:22:19 PM »
Talking of Store, some people may find some of this of use:

The programme was pushed in a slightly hyperbolic way, but if you ignore that there is/was some interesting stuff in the programme one that's related to A-Team's post above (there was discussion of the undercutting and calving, as well as the melt water channels), as well as off-topic stuff. Programme two was about one of the Petermann bergs, so whilst interesting to watch, very off-topic in this thread.

If this post is considered too OT, please move it... :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 29, 2015, 10:40:47 AM »
Being able to average all of the GFS or ECWMF predictions (as I can with NCEP/NCAR for past data) would be invaluable.

See Wetterzentrale's "Ensemblemittel" panels

Or Weather Online's Ensemble pages.

Sorry, I should have been more clear, that is the median of the ensemble, I mean averaging the maps from current day to the last day forecast to give the average SLP pattern over the period.

Sorry - I was surprised that you "weren't" aware of those charts. Should have realised that you were and I'd misunderstood.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 28, 2015, 11:24:47 PM »
Being able to average all of the GFS or ECWMF predictions (as I can with NCEP/NCAR for past data) would be invaluable.

See Wetterzentrale's "Ensemblemittel" panels

Or Weather Online's Ensemble pages.

Arctic background / Re: Peter Wadhams in Murder Mystery?
« on: July 28, 2015, 06:35:52 PM »
Do you think Wadhams was specifically targeted for a character assassination piece and deliberately given the rope to hang himself?

Have you checked the Storify? That was my initial premise, and Mark Brandon (who had a bit of a barney with Prof. Wadhams not so very long ago) seems to think so too. As it was put to me on Twitter earlier today:

I don't endorse Wadhams, but Ben Webster has a history:

From your second link, JM's advice should probably be SOP for all scientists.

Arctic background / Re: Peter Wadhams in Murder Mystery?
« on: July 28, 2015, 10:24:24 AM »
In the latest news an article by John Vidal in the Guardian says that the Times say they have a recording of Ben Webster's interview with Prof. Wadhams, and the Telegraph interviewed him as well:

I'm reminded of this matter:

The media (and news aggregators) will steal stories rampantly without bothering to fact check or even re-check the original source. Even supposedly reputable outlets fall into this trap. Just as well he's taken a stand early, with how fast these things travel around.

[EDIT] Also worth noting how easily manipulated audio is.

See also churnalism.

As I said, it could have been worse.   :)

The big issue is that the whole issue is being looked at within the one department. Until the treasury gets involved it's, at best, minor solutions that may buy time until something serious is done. Hopefully this lot will prove us wrong, but breaths probably should not be held.

The insulation issue is a big one, but difficult in a lot of housing stock - I know from experience of trying to improve it in our '30s semi.

New "climate change minister" announced (could have been worse):

I like how the Harrabin states that the GWPF is a fossil fuel advocacy group (because it is).

Consequences / Re: CA Drought Emergency Declared
« on: April 24, 2015, 11:14:56 AM »
Here's a good source on water news, inc/esp California:

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