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Messages - Sebastian Jones

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1
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 16, 2020, 02:56:32 AM »
I really did not need to read that Vox, but I knew all along it was true. The evidence just keeps piling up. While still mourning the rapid deterioration of the Yukon River salmon runs, today we learn that a protected (federally listed as endangered), caribou herd in a national park in Canada has been extirpated because park managers value tourism revenue over preserving endangered species.
We do not deserve this beautiful planet.
https://www.rmotoday.com/lake-louise/jasper-caribou-herd-wiped-out-of-existence-2713961

2
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: September 15, 2020, 12:55:47 AM »
Scientists Find Gas Linked to Life in Atmosphere of Venus
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/14/scientists-find-gas-linked-to-life-in-atmosphere-of-venus

Phosphine, released by microbes in oxygen-starved environments, was present in quantities larger than expected

Astronomers detected phosphine 30 miles up in the planet’s atmosphere and have failed to identify a process other than life that could account for its presence.
..........................................
The presence of even a few parts per billion of PH3 is completely unexpected for an oxidized atmosphere (where oxygen-containing compounds greatly dominate over hydrogen-containing ones).

Twitter, at least one corner of it, has been noting that penguin guano can emit phosphine, and that maybe penguins colonized Venus....
However, given the terribly hot conditions, it is more likely that Pernese dragons have been visiting, and leaving traces of Firestone.
https://pern.fandom.com/wiki/Firestone

3
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 11, 2020, 08:55:27 PM »
Alaska's Salmon Are Getting Smaller
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/08/shrinking-salmon-alaska-fish
.......

E. P. Palkovacs, et.al., Recent declines in salmon body size impact ecosystems and fisheries, Nature Communications, 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17726-z

As a commercial salmon fisher on the Yukon River (in Canada) since 1984, I, and all other fishers, have been acutely aware of this phenomenon since the 1980s.
Because we, both indigenous and non-indigenous fishers alike, typically had low levels of academic qualifications, our observations were resolutely discounted and disparaged by fisheries scientists for years and years.
We are still being ignored: It has always been obvious to us that the prime driver of the loss of the larger salmon has been size-selective fishing, undertaken of multiple salmon generations.
And yet, in this article, fishing is not identified as a driver because they had insufficient data.
They could have set a precedent and asked fishers.
Fishers selectively harvested the largest salmon for all the reasons that the largest salmon are identified as being important in the article.
This effect on salmon size is, in human life terms, permanent.
We have not only literally decimated the stocks, we have driven a permanent phenological change.
We could so easily have taken action, and fishers did, on multiple occasions, propose fishing methods to reverse the trend, before it was too late, but the proposals were not deemed sufficiently science based.
Unlike the scientific management that is driving the stocks to extinction.
We call it #ManagingToZero.

4
Pretty clear from that chart that Great Lakes ice cover is in a long steady decline.

What chart?
The chart in post 75 by Wdmn.

5
Judging from this summer's ice movement, the last of the arctic ice will be in the Beaufort.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 31, 2020, 08:15:29 AM »
(USA) Zalets and Padilla at usatoday: 90% of hospitalizations have preexisting health problems

"nearly 90% of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the US had one or more underlying diseases. "

"most common were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). These conditions were even more prevalent in deceased COVID-19 patients, according to data released by Louisiana, New York and New Jersey."

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2020/04/15/coronavirus-risk-90-patients-had-underlying-conditions/2962721001/

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

94% of deaths have contributing conditions:

"he top conditions contributing to deaths involving coronavirus disease:

    Influenza and pneumonia
    Respiratory failure
    Hypertensive disease
    Diabetes
    Vascular and unspecified dementia
    Cardiac Arrest
    Heart failure
    Renal failure
    Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
    Other medical conditions"

https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/new-cdc-report-shows-94-of-covid-19-deaths-in-us-had-underlying-medical-conditions/

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

sidd

This is Fox News doing their propaganding thing to undermine the seriousness of Covid.

To me, 6% of the deaths happened to people who were perfectly healthy. That is troubling, not something to feel good about.
Yes, and the deniers-here is now trumpeting that 94% of Covid deaths reported were not in fact Covid deaths at all, and that the death  number in the U.S. should therefore be only 6% of the latest number (about 187K), i.e. only 9,000 or so. Of course, to believe that, you have to accept a massive conspiracy of thousands of MDs and epidemiologists....

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 30, 2020, 01:51:42 AM »
I mostly go to Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for daily Covid stats.
I recently noticed that (to use today's figures) they have recorded 18,323,793 cases with an out come, i.e. patients either recovered or died. Of these 18 odd million people, 17,478,273 recovered and 845,520 died. In other words, 5% of casualties died. Is this the Case Fatality Rate that many have spoken of up thread? Or the Infection Fatality Rate? or something else entirely? 5% fatality seems to be much more deadly than most statistics I have heard.
Ummm, maybe this should go into the Stupid/Smart Questions thread...

8
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: August 28, 2020, 12:22:59 AM »
I've read a tiny bit about "retrogressive thaw slumps"  and was aware of how fast a multi-meter thick area (volume) of recent permafrost can mobilize, flowing into streams or the sea ("mud flows," we used to call them). 
........................


The one on Peninsula Point formed as the Laurentide ice sheet was retreating, so the ground was freezing but there was loads of subsurface meltwater flowing and freezing too. it may have been up to 20 m thick at one stage.

The number and growth of thaw slumps are crazy. This study from the nearby Banks Island, showing a 60 fold increase in their numbers since the mid 80s

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09314-7

I have some cool pics and animation of the slumps too. I'll post them up tomorrow if I get the time. You can literally watch them developing just standing there.

We have a community science thaw slump monitoring project on the Dempster Highway- the road that leads (most of the way) to BFTV's study area.
I'd love to read the entire paper, is there a way to get it out from behind the paywall? SciHub does not have it yet.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 27, 2020, 11:43:24 PM »
I attended an annual US hydro conference a few years back. 4 years ago? ........One thing they all agreed on was building new dams in the US was a nonstarter. ........
 

Just in case we need an example of new large hydro that is not needed, not viable, not affordable, and, it appears, not even possible, we have Site C on the Peace River in British Columbia, Canada. Yet nonetheless, it proceeds. At least for now.
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/08/24/Horgan-Folly-We-All-Pay/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=082520-2&utm_campaign=editorial

10
Thanks FreeGrass, for drawing our (mine anyway) attention to this really interesting idea. I am one of the CCS sceptics, simply because I don't think most Carbon capture and storage schemes will really permanently store carbon- pumping CO2 into oil fields to wring the last drops of petroleum out is the most common method touted, with zero guarantee that the CO2 will stay down there.
So, a method that locks carbon into a solid stable form is far superior.
Will it work? Maybe!
What could go wrong? Haha! Lots, of course- I can just imagine getting the sums wrong and over achieving and sucking CO2 levels down to 180ppm.....BBR's vision of re-glaciation could even come true!

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 27, 2020, 02:28:58 AM »
I'd like to commend BornFromTheVoid on their stunning 3 day slow gif upthread. It is mesmerizing to watch the ice drift and fade, almost like being there in real (but sped up) time. Clearly you have taken a tremendous amount of time and considerable skill and talent to produce this. I don't want to be greedy, but this is exactly how I'd like to view retrospectives of melting seasons.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 07:37:17 AM »
Pearscott: I really appreciated the GIF of the Nares and N. Greenland. The fast ice breaking off in N. Greenland and floating off- down the Nares?- was particularly compelling.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 21, 2020, 09:43:55 PM »
Adding to the illustrations of just how infectious this virus can be is the report contained within this article about Alaska, where a 99 out of 135 employees of a fish processing plant are infected.
https://www.ktoo.org/2020/08/21/covid-19-cases-grow-at-north-slope-oil-fields-anchorage-pioneer-home-as-state-confirms-86-positives/

14
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 21, 2020, 07:09:49 AM »
Firefighters are in short supply in California as the state continues to face hundreds of fast-spreading blazes.

SNIP
The difficult job is made even harder this year by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Many of the incarcerated laborers relied upon to fight fires are out of commission due to outbreaks in prisons across the state. Prisoners are crucial in the state’s fire response plan, fighting fires in exchange for wages as low as $2 per hour and reduced sentences.

SNIP

Really? Americans have penal labour battalions fighting fires? Do they work in chain gangs? Or individual ball and chain set ups? Are most Americans OK with this?

15
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 19, 2020, 07:55:16 AM »
Oops.  :o

A car-size asteroid flew within 1,830 miles of Earth over the weekend — the closest pass ever — and we didn't see it coming
Quote
A car-size asteroid flew within about 1,830 miles (2,950 kilometers) of Earth on Sunday.

That's a remarkably close shave — the closest ever recorded, in fact, according to asteroid trackers and a catalog compiled by Sormano Astronomical Observatory in Italy.

Because of its size, the space rock most likely wouldn't have posed any danger to people on the ground had it struck our planet. But the close call is worrisome nonetheless, since astronomers had no idea the asteroid existed until after it passed by. ...
https://www.businessinsider.in/science/news/a-car-size-asteroid-flew-within-1830-miles-of-earth-over-the-weekend-the-closest-pass-ever-and-we-didnt-see-it-coming/articleshow/77603002.cms

To place how close this is into some context, Low Earth Orbit, where most man-made objects orbit, is anywhere below 1,200mi. So, had it's approach path and speed been different, it could have been captured by Earth's gravity and become a new moon!

16
The post-solstice weather pattern shows that this year the snowfalls have been occurring more thoroughly through summertime across highest elevations, and the map is supported by the Canucks and EOSDIS. There are likely substantial areas at highest elevations in NE Eurasia, the Himalayas, and the NW Rockies that retained snowcover through summer 2020.
OTOH, it appears we dodged the impending glaciation centred in Labrador/Quebec again; all the snow there seems to have melted. Phew!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 14, 2020, 03:27:53 AM »
Would the closure of the passage be related to the garlic press sending ice down the channel between Victoria and Prince of Wales islands? I think this ice flow was what trapped Franklin's ships, but I  suppose we shall never know that for sure.

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: August 12, 2020, 04:42:33 PM »
What is the large black splotches on the webcam ice? Rock/dirt on the bottom of the glacier? In that case I didn't realize the valley was so shallow. Or is it just a dirty ice layer of the glacier?
I would say this is dirty old ice and not the bedrock beneath it.
You can zoom into the photograph by clicking on it:
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/
This is almost certainly dirt (silt) left behind by water that had pooled on the glacier until it suddenly drained away.

19
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 09, 2020, 08:14:49 AM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=382.0;attach=279778;image

Nellie the icelephant , anyone ?
Yes...especially with the N. polar eye!
However, judging by the modest ears, it is probably a mammoth.
Perhaps the ice cap is signalling a looming extinction.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 09, 2020, 08:00:34 AM »
Is this projection right? Tune in next winter:
A Second Wave of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths This Winter
https://covid.us.org/2020/08/07/a-second-wave-of-covid-19-cases-and-deaths-this-winter/
Quote
... And I’ve come to a conclusion: Covid-19 is seasonal. It is like the human coronaviruses that cause colds, in which the number of cases in winter is much higher than in summer. And this means that the number of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. in winter will be much higher than July.

I came to the same conclusion. We are likely going to have a dreadful winter in the US and Europe with an uphill struggle Sisyphus would envy
Yes, we are struggling with distancing in summer when we are outside a lot. It will be tough to keep the bug from spreading when people are indoors most of the time. Perhaps the South of the U.S. will do better, given its mild winters.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 09, 2020, 07:57:56 AM »
Tracking the Real Coronavirus Death Toll in the United States

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

Quote
Nationwide, 200,700 more people have died than usual from March 15 to July 25, according to C.D.C. estimates, which adjust current death records to account for typical reporting lags. That number is 54,000 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. Higher-than-normal death rates are now widespread across the country; only Alaska, Hawaii, Maine and West Virginia show numbers that look similar to recent years.
Alaska, Hawaii, Maine are all in the bottom 5 states for number of infections, W. Virginia is 9th least.
I suspect that is affecting the stats in the short term. While I'm not sure about the rest, my neighbour state of Alaska has an out of control epidemic of community transmission, so it would not surprise me if the death rate jumps soon.

22
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:59:02 PM »
Early Mars was covered in ice sheets, not flowing rivers, researchers say

...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803120154.htm

Hmmm. Eskers? If Mars were once covered in an ice sheet, and rivers flowed under the ice, one would think there would be other evidence of this ice- moraines probably and eskers for sure. The article did not rule this out. Maybe nobody looked yet....

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:02:52 AM »
What will happen to Northern Hemispheric weather when the Arctic Sea ice melts completely?
As Oren indicated, nobody knows for sure, but, stick around and you'll be among the first to know.

24
Obviously conspiracy theories, forms of denialism and pseudo-science do show up on the Forum from time to time.

If a thread gets too wacky, I ignore it for a while until it settles down, or the contributor gets banned.

I've not used the ignore button that I've heard suggested as a tool, but if our excellent moderators should prove unable to control a wild poster, I'm prepared to do so.

I voted NO, I don't want to see crazy stuff on here. The story of the ice is crazy enough for anyone.

25
The rest / Re: Port of Beirut Explosion
« on: August 05, 2020, 01:44:05 AM »
Bellingcat has some additional details, disagrees with the quantity of Ammonium nitrate by a factor of ten.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/08/04/what-just-blew-up-in-beirut/

26
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2020, 07:39:43 PM »
Agreed Walrus. I just noticed that this discussion morphed into something perhaps better taken place in the Wildlife thread....https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,434.0.html

27
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2020, 07:07:33 PM »
It appears that Walking Hibernation was a hypothesis found to not exist.
"Using the body core temperature as a measure of metabolic activity (the more the bear was eating, the higher the active metabolism and the higher the temperature), the research team found no sudden temperature changes, which would have otherwise hinted at a bear entering the suggested state of “walking hibernation.” "
"ll evidence points to the fact that polar bears possess no special trick to help them survive lengthy periods without food. Instead, they lose weight just like any other starving mammal. To survive long-term, polar bears need a good platform of sea ice from which to hunt seals. In short: no sea ice = no polar bears."
https://polarbearsinternational.org/news/article-polar-bears/polar-bear-questions-do-polar-bears-undergo-walking-hibernation/

28
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2020, 06:49:46 PM »
I was responding to this bolded sentence from your post
The seal issues always seems to rear its ugly head, whenever the polar bear discussion arises.  Yet, polar bears do much worse when there is more sea ice, as there is no place to hunt for seals.  When the polar bears awaken earlier, the sea ice has already begun to break up, making for optimal hunting.  The article makes numerous assumptions that are not support by the data.
I admit that I'm not a Polar bear biologist, so that I've never heard of "walking hibernation" is perhaps not surprising. Gonna have to do some research! Fortunately I do know some top Polar bear bios.

You indicate that too much ice is tough on bears. Do you know what is the optimal amount of ice, and when? Knowing this we should be able to predict where Polar bears are doing well, and to project where they will thrive into the future.

29
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2020, 05:33:53 AM »
Dear Walrus,
I'm not sure where you get your Polar bear biology.
Polar bears don't hibernate.
They actually fatten up in winter when they hunt seals through the ice.
They lose weight in summer because they cannot catch seals.
The longer the ice free season, the fewer calories they can get.
This is why there are no polar bears in California, despite there being an abundance of seals and sea lions.

30
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 30, 2020, 02:42:13 AM »
It appears that the growth-at-all-costs folk at Bloomberg are concerned that too few social supports is affecting the reproduction rate of Americans. Many of us are probably of the opinion that we already have sufficient Americans.However, if this viewpoint gets some traction, Americans might start to get some of the things that all other developed countries take for granted.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-29/coronavirus-pandemic-americans-aren-t-making-babies-in-crisis?utm_content=businessweek&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-businessweek

31
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 26, 2020, 06:32:14 PM »
If the thinking of this young adult author is as mainstream as they indicate, the population of humans may start to decrease sooner rather than later.  But I agree with Oren, the per won't come next year. Regular denizens of this forum are aware of the phenomenon of momentum. What we are seeing now is massive pre-conditioning....
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/jul/25/why-a-generation-is-choosing-to-be-child-free

32
Right now Hurricane Hanna is at around 973 mb and 80 kts. The Beaufort low is predicted to bottom out around the same central pressure but the predictions I see are for perhaps 40 or 45 kts.

Why the difference?
Wind velocity is a factor of the pressure gradient rather than the absolute pressure. Crudely, the closer the isobars, the faster the potential wind. Meteorologists will likely jump all over me....

33
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 26, 2020, 06:01:37 AM »
IMHO, is very important to change the way we look at animals, specially about their minds.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/mila.12302

....

Cybernetics explores this question as well. In my opinion, very few of the scientists have lived and worked with animals in a natural (as opposed to lab or other controlled) environment. It is obvious to those who regularly work with animals that there is no sharp difference between how human minds and other minds work. Even second order thinking (thinking about thinking) which is horribly difficult to rule in or out in animals occurs on a spectrum, as we regularly observe in people.

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 17, 2020, 09:18:11 PM »
Through reading through some of the posts here I cannot help but conclude that the general consensus of a number of the members here seems to be that eventually, the virus will go away.

Alternatively, the opinion is that through control measures it will be eradicated.

What I fail to see is an acknowledgment that it has an R0 value of some of the most virulent pathogens humans have ever dealt with.

The CDC published a paper indicating the R0 value in crowded places is nearly 6.0 (95%CI of 4-9)

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

That's almost higher than Smallpox.

You cannot eradicate a virus this easily spread in droplets/air without a vaccine, 100% mask wearing, or extreme lockdown measures.   

Oh, but what if everyone wears masks, and socially distances themselves - I hear the devil's advocate saying.

Oh yeah?  You expect us to just wear masks for the rest of our lives?  Americans certainly won't and as long as international travel is possible, Americans will spread the virus everywhere else.  It's also now endemic in Brazil, China, and India and South America in general.

The virus is permanent, and our lives are permanently changed.  With an R0 value as high as smallpox, and a 10%+ hospitalization rate, our way of life is possibly over.

Yes, the Pandemic has probably changed things for ever, but that does not mean that there are not huge areas, and large swathes of the population where the virus is not endemic, yet, and could be eliminated. In that case, where most countries eliminate Covid, there will emerge two worlds, one where borders are very tight, hand hygiene is vastly improved and masks are worn indoors and where distancing is not possible, but otherwise life is relatively normal. Elsewhere....well, we are seeing how that is unfolding in America. Sickness, death and mayhem, but otherwise, no distancing requirements, no masks and gloriously dirty hands!

35
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:48:27 PM »
Very cool! I wonder what the night sky looked like back then? With stars so close we could exchange asteroids?

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: July 16, 2020, 06:07:47 PM »
Lessons from Covid-19 in my view have been the following:

* ecological crisis - from which corona ultimately derives from - has firmly hit the entire industrial civilization and nobody can say with a straight face any more that global problems don't affect them. Well, theoretically of course they *could* say, but deep down they would know it's not true.
TRUE

* the era of uncertainty has been properly kick-started. A year ago nobody would have predicted covid-19, but here we are. Let's see, what will be happening a year from now onwards, etc. There won't be a "rest" for humanity any more. Just more and more problems keep coming with each passing year to deal with.
NOT TRUE- Johns Hopkins led three major pandemic preparation scenarios. They were so prescient that some think this pandemic is a conspiracy...

* fragmentation of the world has sped up. This has been a "test" or "warm-up" of countries locking themselves in, going into isolation, etc. We will see more and more of each country protecting themselves due to mounting global problems, with international order gradually breaking down.
TRUE

* I don't think we have seen full economic effects yet as they keep mounting, but the gradual process of dismantling the global industrial civilization has started.
TRUE The pandemic has exposed the fragility of the just-in-time global economic model.

* as far as humans are concerned, they are hopeless as ever in grasping the implications of the situation, so nothing to see there. The majority of population think that "soon we will go back to normal and from there onwards it would be good life again". Well, they will be repeating the same thing after every climate and ecological problem we face literally till death.
PARTLY TRUE.  Many people- here for example- are fully aware that the world has changed.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 15, 2020, 07:23:52 AM »
If they used 0 as the base line you can just imagine the usual suspects and "look over there it's a chunk of sea ice in the artic"so we are not there yet and scientists are just alarmist bullshiters

That's part of it of course, but as I recall 1M was chosen because it was reckoned that that was the threshold at which the Arctic Ocean would start to behave like an ocean rather than like a frozen pond. Wind driven Eckman pumping mixing up the layers of water, for example.
1m km2 is considered a tipping point.

38
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 03, 2020, 01:44:12 AM »
The Hidden Magnetic Universe Begins to Come Into View

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-hidden-magnetic-universe-begins-to-come-into-view-20200702/

"Astronomers are discovering that magnetic fields permeate much of the cosmos. If these fields date back to the Big Bang, they could solve a major cosmological mystery."
"Primordial magnetism might also help resolve another cosmological conundrum known as the Hubble tension — probably the hottest topic in cosmology.

The problem at the heart of the Hubble tension is that the universe seems to be expanding significantly faster than expected based on its known ingredients. In a paper posted online in April and under review with Physical Review Letters, the cosmologists Karsten Jedamzik and Levon Pogosian argue that weak magnetic fields in the early universe would lead to the faster cosmic expansion rate seen today."

39
My apologies everyone.
Of course the melting down of nuclear power plants, unless they were to detonate like a nuclear bomb, would not trigger a nuclear winter.

I clearly confused "Stupid" questions with dumb answers.

I shall not do that again.

40
If everybody dropped dead tomorrow, GHGs would increase until all those leaky fracked wells ran out of methane. But that might be balanced out by dozens of nuclear power stations melting down and the ensuing nuclear winter.

41
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 23, 2020, 10:55:58 PM »
At the risk of oversimplifying things, Racism can be thought of as Prejudice + Power.

42
Science / Re: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: June 23, 2020, 09:12:30 PM »
It will be interesting to see if methane concentrations decrease later this year since much of the US and Canadian fracking decreased in May and looks to be reduced through 2021 with the oil oversupply and Covid recession demand destruction.

Considering methane leaks are a feature of fracked wells, and considering that the frackers have even less free cash than usual for properly abandoning their wells, I  do not expect methane pollution to drop appreciably.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Bering Strait
« on: June 23, 2020, 09:08:10 PM »
For an entertaining series of posts regarding the Bering Strait, I might suggest TM Mallard and his thread on damming the straits in order to refreeze the Arctic Ocean, raise global albedo and arrest global warming:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.0.html

44
Here is a “stupid” question:
Why are the 48 contiguous states AGW Houdini?
Whenever I see a map of AGW I see swaths of red, brown and maroon with a white or even pale blue blob in the CONUS. We haven’t had a summer like 1988 since, well, 1988. If it were hotter here it would be easier to convince us of AGW.
Several places are warming faster than the global average, many others are not. A few are even cooler. Aside from ocean currents, changes in polar albedo and the myriad of other factors that can have local effects, changes in agriculture can also have an effect. I read recently, I'll try to find the article, that crop changes in the upper mid west- sort of the Dakotas etc, have changed the evaporations-transpiration rate so dramatically that it feels wetter now even though precipitation has fallen.

45
Per the linked article it may soon be easier to develop Canadian oilsands than was previously the case:
Title: "Oilsands projects approved by AER would no longer need final stamp from government under new red tape reduction legislation"

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/oil-sands-projects-approved-by-aer-would-no-longer-need-final-stamp-from-government-under-new-red-tape-reduction-legislation/wcm/14ab51c9-ab5e-4276-8ca9-d011187c96c7/

Extract: "Oilsands projects that get the green light from the Alberta Energy Regulator will go ahead without a final stamp of approval from cabinet if an omnibus bill tabled by the UCP government passes."


Maybe. Maybe not. The First Nations on whose lands the bitumen mines would be dug have a constitutional right to be consulted, and that consultation has to be government to government, in addition to a company or an independent regulator. If Alberta tries to short circuit this process through provincial legislation, it could wind up with a much slower process.

46
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: June 13, 2020, 07:36:04 AM »
................

Why then, does the Democratic Party consider itself the party of the poor?

A political party that concerns itself with poverty reduction will govern a region with lower poverty....and vice versa

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 05, 2020, 06:41:58 AM »
Alaska should, could have been the poster child for avoiding Covid, as  the northern territories of Canada have.
Unfortunately, they are a Red state, and have a Trumpian government.
Despite his having defunded the ferries to the rest of America, and despite Canada closing the border to America, they have managed to have 513 cases thus far, and ten deaths.
But, they do not count migrant workers in these numbers, even if they are American.
Alaska is a big fishing state, and as the fishing season ramps up, hordes of seasonal workers arrive, some to fish but mostly to work in fish processing plants.
The community of Whittier, whose residents all live in two buildings had been able to remain Covid free, but were seriously concerned about the arrival of fish plant workers.
The processors told them that they would screen everybody, and the Governor decreed fish plant workers as essential, and then erased most of the Covid related health and social restrictions.
Now, we hear, 11 of these workers have been diagnosed with Covid
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/06/04/whittier-sees-11-cases-of-covid-19-among-seafood-processor-workers/
Much of the fish caught in Alaska is by massive sea raping trawlers, with 100 plus people on board- a bit like a cruise ship, but fewer amenities.
Unsurprisingly these too have proven to be as efficient incubators as cruise ships.
92 out of 126 crew on one trawler have come down with the virus.
https://www.kucb.org/post/positive-covid-19-results-grow-92-aboard-factory-trawler
The crew on a second ship, subsequent to a crew member getting sick are being tested now.
https://www.americanseafoods.com/media/1692/release-6320-american-seafoods-testing-crews-on-two-vessels-final.pdf
Dozens more have gotten sick at small communities along the coast, but I think I have conveyed the idea.
Industrial profits Trump health and welfare every time.

48
From my experience, living close to this kind of environment, I have observed the difference in break up of ponds and lake to be dependent on:
  • The thickness of the ice which is dependent on the depth of the water and the presence of ground water flow
  • The size of the water body

But mostly it depends on if there is any water flow through the pond.
 Moving water erodes/melts ice much faster than still water.

49
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 04, 2020, 07:43:52 AM »
I'm guessing that the cause of this spectacular event is the active layer detaching from underlying ice rich permafrost. June is rather early for this, but possibly a rain event deepened the active layer.
I thought to place this in the permafrost thread, but considering what happens to the houses, here seems more appropriate.


50
.....

Isn't UBI just giving people a minimum paycheck for doing bullshit work?

Nope.
UDI is by definition not tied to employment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

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