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Messages - Feeltheburn

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 07:47:55 AM »
I know there is a lot of excitement on this board that this could be the year everyone's been waiting for: the "Armageddon" mentioned by Gerontocrat in the sea ice extent/area thread. It will be like the "second coming" if and when it happens.

That said, I'm going out on a limb to say I doubt we will see a record low this year. It will be like the past few years and disappoint.

Sorry to be a wet blanket. And sorry for not putting the next paragraph in the proper thread (since none exists on this site).

There is a cliff developing that WILL be Armageddon for the pharmaceutical companies. As someone who studies trends and technologies, the perfect storm is about to happen before our very eyes: (1) big money patents are expiring, (2) the maker of oxycontin is going to prison, (3) J&J and other big pharma face huge liabilities, (4) medical marijuana is becoming a reality, (5) the internet spreads information that cannot be suppressed.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: March 23, 2019, 05:16:00 PM »
So 7 of us correctly guessed the high for Jaxa between 14.125 to 14.375.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: March 15, 2019, 12:23:49 AM »

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 12:19:23 AM »
NSIDC max for 2019 so far: 14,883,000 on March 11
JAXA max for 2019 so far: 14,271,121 on March 12

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:18:05 AM »
The Perils of Projections.

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.43 million km2 (550k >2017's record low maximum).


We are going to need some slowing if my vote of 14.125-14.375 is going to stay in the money!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:09:57 AM »
Found a table of the recent maximum and associated date:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-second-lowest/

The table must have a 5- or 10-day moving average because March 4, 2014 was 15,007,000 according to the NSIDC spreadsheet.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 05:06:20 AM »
Jaxa:

Feb 22: 14,194,560 km2
Increase of 27,066
12th place

NSIDC:
Feb 21: 14,727,000 km2
Increase of 46,000 km2
12th place

Will NSIDC finally reach 15,000,000 this year? Last time was March 20, 2014.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 04:41:26 AM »
Travelling right now, couldn't release this earlier, sorry:

Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

Haven't I proven myself for the past 2 years? Can I please come out of detention?

<You haven't posted all that much. Anyway, I'm back now; N.>

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2019, 05:26:54 AM »

Curiously, I think there is still a significant probability we could see a new low max extent.

Not possible. Currently at 14,085,455 km2
Already exceeds the maxima for 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and likely others before it's through.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2019, 05:22:53 AM »
Feb 20:           14,085,455
Increase of            73,253
9th lowest on record
Might soon surpass 2012 to move into 10th place

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 29, 2019, 04:46:14 AM »
First time NSID over 14,000,000 km2 for 2019.

14,051,000

I wonder if it will be able to hit 15,000,000 for the first time in years?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:41:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,332,401 km2(January 24, 2019)

The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.30 million km2 (410k > 2018).


I suppose if one had voted that the high would be 14.125 to 14.375 they would be feeling pretty good! hehe

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 26, 2019, 05:32:10 AM »
This is one very back and forth freeze season. Lowest on record to 14th to 3rd to 8th and on and on and on

The wild fluctuations are as much the result of wild ups and downs of previous years as it is this year's ice. All such fluctuations might be actual wild swings in sea ice or they might be statistical noise resulting from large sections of ice crossing back and forth across the 15% threshold.

Extent numbers and maps of sea ice are based on interpretations of data and are not understood to be absolute.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 08, 2019, 05:01:19 AM »
Extent is 13,238 on NSIDC on 1-6-19, a daily increase of 140,000 km2, now surpassing 2011 and 2013-2018 for the same day.

Interesting that arctic ice in the last month extended significantly in both directions. Should be an interesting melt season, that's for sure.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2019, 03:25:44 AM »

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2019, 08:36:28 AM »
Anyone care to comment on the massive 1-day increase in ice extent of 282,000 km2 according to NSIDC? Is it a glitch caused by cloud cover, a whole bunch of ice forming in regions where it was just below 15%, or wind induced movement towards Svalbaard?


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 27, 2018, 05:39:34 AM »
So, judging by Wipneus' global sea ice graphs, is it safe to saw we've witnessed the second lowest maximum on record, for both extent and area?

The graphs also show that with Antarctic sea ice melt slowing down and arctic ice higher now than many previous years, 2018 has moved up to third lowest after 2016 (lowest) and 2017 (second lowest. In addition, the current low negative slope of the 2018 line shows a trajectory that might put it back into the pack, with a total sea ice level not particularly low compared to prior years.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 23, 2018, 05:01:48 PM »
14th place in extent according to NSIDC. Now past all of the following:

2003
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Closing gap with 2008 and 2004. No slowdown yet. Perhaps because Hodson didn’t freeze out yet we still have places that must keep freezing.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 22, 2018, 04:36:14 PM »
For completeness I note that NSIDC also puts 2018 at 13th place for Nov 21. It had been a couple notches higher than Jaxa. Good to see agreement now. At current pace 2018 will hold 13th position and maybe move up one or two before the end of refreeze. It should finish high this year because of extreme cold and other conditions. Colder than normal winter predicted by NASA report on sunspots.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 20, 2018, 08:09:59 AM »
The faster the ice refreezes, the less heat is released into the atmosphere. We will have to watch this one closely


I'm not sure I believe this. Ice freezes faster when the air is colder above it, not because the ocean is warmer (contains more heat) below it. Moreover, the sooner ice forms and the longer it continues to form, generally the thicker it gets.

On another front, the Chuchki sea is freezing more quickly and to a greater extent than last year at this time, which is very good news indeed. Now if only the Barents sea will get its act together.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2018, 05:16:13 PM »
For those who are impressed with rankings, 2018 just blew past 2015 in ice extent and is now in 11th place (per NSIDC) with no signs of letting up the impressive run. Lots of open areas that need ice may be getting ice soon.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 18, 2018, 05:10:22 PM »
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 17, 2018, 04:23:44 PM »
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.

Am I? I’m just trying to assimilate all the data available. Is name calling really conducive to enlightening discussion?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/amp/

<Any reply to this can go into a solar thread, thanks; N.>

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 17, 2018, 04:15:01 PM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

2018 has now passed up each of 2013, 2010, and 2007 as the trends suggested it would and is now in 10th place in NSIDC. Ice continues to impress.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 04:45:57 PM »

I agree, but it will take some really extreme weather to have the ice return to 2005-2006 levels. And when sunspots eventually go up again (assuming this short-term forcing negates all of long-term AGW), ice will melt with a vengeance.


Agreed. I don't think there would be any grounds for predicting extreme cold weather except for the low sun spot activity.

Still, you mention 2005-2006 levels as a good standard. According to NSIDC, 2018 just surpassed 2006 in ice extent for 11-12 and is not far behind 2005, 2003 and 2002!

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2018, 04:40:46 PM »
NSIDC stats for 11-12-18. Currently 2018 is 8th lowest, now surpassing 2017, 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2006. If current trends continue 2018 can "drop" to 11th lowest because 2015, 2013 and 2007 are stalling the next few days.

2018 - 9.559 km2 (8th)
2017 - 9.326 km2 (4th)
2016 - 8.649 km2 (1st)
2015 - 9.650 km2 (stalling next few days)
2014 - 9.827 km2
2013 - 9.575 km2 (stalling next few days)
2012 - 9.002 km2 (2nd)
2011 - 9.458 km2 (5th)
2010 - 9.521 km2 (7th)
2009 - 9.283 km2 (3rd)
2008 - 10.090 km2
2007 - 9.660 km2 (stalling next few days)
2006 - 9.500 km2 (6th)

Ice forming rapidly around edges all over east, west and Hudson with little propensity to slow.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean 'acidifying rapidly'
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:25:10 PM »
I read recently that there is not enough fossil fuel to create the necessary CO2 required to dissolve all the calcite at the bottom of the ocean. So rest assured the oceans ability to hold CO2 and buffer pH are intact. On the other hand if ocean temps are warming they will expel CO2 through a shift in solubility, which will raise the pH and form more calcite.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 03:16:27 PM »
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.


29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:06:57 AM »
Even with lower temps, more ice equals slower loss of residual summer heat accumulation.

I recently quoted you on this point you made last year when early freezing occurred rapidly. However, this year I drew a different conclusion: in 2018 the refreeze was the slowest on record, which gave the arctic more time to release ocean heat into the atmosphere. Therefore, the current faster trend of ice formation is consistent with less heat remaining in the water (even though air temps are currently above average).

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:00:38 AM »
In NSIDC, 2018 is now 7th lowest and possible about to surpass 2013, 2010 and 2007 if trends hold up.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 05, 2018, 08:20:04 AM »
I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.
Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 05, 2018, 08:06:57 AM »

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?


The rainfall in the arctic is so low as to be a desert. I wouldn't count on there ever being extreme rain sufficient to melt meters thick sea ice. To get rain there needs to be warm moist air colliding with cool air. That doesn't happen at the poles.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2018, 07:58:52 AM »
Thanks for that, I'd also like to know the last date that was between 1,000 square kilometers gained and 1,000 square kilometers lost.

I wouldn't worry about day to day changes, which can be statistical noise, but rather week to week. Counting pixels to arrive at what part of the arctic has >15% ice and <85% water is not all that exact. It may also depend on the location of area blocks containing what pixels.

That said, the refreeze this year is unusually slow. How that will affect ultimate ice extent is unclear.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2018, 08:04:02 AM »
I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago when ice was forming at record pace that that was a bad thing because it didn't permit heat to escape from the arctic ocean as well as open water. Therefore, the slower refreeze we are seeing now, being the very opposite, should be a good thing later in the season because more open water means more escape of heat from the arctic ocean.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2018 Arctic SIE September average: August Poll
« on: September 17, 2018, 06:05:38 AM »
I voted for 4.5-5.0. one person must not have understood the question (0.75-1.25)

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 31, 2018, 04:36:29 PM »
<snip; please, no concern trolling; N.>

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2018, 07:01:15 AM »
July 10 had 2 century drop from July 9. Let's see how this changes the rankings.

NSIDC in ascending order:

2012 - 8.130 (up from 3 to 1)
2011 - 8.253 (down from 1 to 2)
2016 - 8.418 (down from 2 to 3)
2014 - 8.534 (up from 5 to 4)
2007 - 8.583 (up from 6 to 5)
2017 - 8.591 (down from 5 to 6)
2010 - 8.611 (remains at 7)
2013 - 8.718 (remains at 8)
2006 - 8.811 (remains at 9)
2018 - 9.020 (remains at 10)
2009 - 9.030 (up from 12 to 11)
2015 - 9.048 (down from 11 to 12)
2005 - 9.197 (remains at 13)
2008 - 9.315 (remains at 14)
1995 - 9.477 (up from 16 to 15)
2001 - 9.481 (down from 15 to 16)


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Will we see it before it happens?
« on: July 10, 2018, 02:41:27 AM »
The best chance to obliterate ice is for there to be a huge wind storm as in 2008 that pushed the ice late in the season and likely had lasting effects, notably, lots of open water that needed to ice over, leading to younger ice.

I don't think warmth has been or will be the biggest determining factor. It will be wind.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2018, 02:38:13 AM »
The good times may not last, but July 8, 2018 is now closer to July 8, 1995 than July 8, 2017 according to NSIDC:

In ascending order:

2011 - 8.537
2016 - 8.559
2012 - 8.572
2017 - 8.681
2014 - 8.708
2007 - 8.722
2010 - 8.746
2013 - 8.909
2006 - 9.045
2018 - 9.201
2009 - 9.292
2015 - 9.304
2005 - 9.355
2008 - 9.450
2001 - 9.578
1995 - 9.672





40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Overdue for a 'monster' spring volume melt?
« on: July 01, 2018, 10:01:44 PM »
<snip, in how many more threads are you planning on posting exactly the same thing? N>

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2018, 09:57:13 PM »
Graphs are visually appealing, but sometimes raw data are also illustrative. I miss Espen's simple presentation of arctic sea extent data. To that end, here is the NSIDC arctic ice extent data for 30 June 2018 in descending order (for historical context). Interesting, ice extent in 2018 is barely lower than 2001 and 2005 on 30-06-18.

2010 - 9.257
2016 - 9.334
2012 - 9.335
2017 - 9.421
2011 - 9.532
2014 - 9.617
2006 - 9.820
2018 - 9.939
2007 - 9.952
2015 - 10.008
2013 - 10.015
2008 - 10.199
2005 - 10.211
2001 - 10.297
2003 - 10.624
1995 - 10.630
2002 - 10.767
2004 - 10.814





42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 09:49:16 PM »
Sometimes it's good (and encouraging) to just look at the facts/stats rather than engage in speculation and personal animus.

I miss Espen's simple presentation of arctic sea extent data without engaging in hyperbole. To that end, let's consider the NSIDC arctic ice extent data, which shows 2018 ice is holding up better than most years the past decade (so far). I decided to put the years in descending order so we can see better the historical context. Note also that the ice on 30 June 2018 is only 340 km2 lower than 6-30-2001, and 700 km2 lower than 6-30-1995. In addition, note well that ice thickness and compactness are higher than the past 15 years, which favors preservation.

2010 - 9.257
2016 - 9.334
2012 - 9.335
2017 - 9.421
2011 - 9.532
2014 - 9.617
2006 - 9.820
2018 - 9.939
2007 - 9.952
2015 - 10.008
2013 - 10.015
2008 - 10.199
2005 - 10.211
2001 - 10.297
2003 - 10.624
1995 - 10.630
2002 - 10.767
2004 - 10.814





43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Overdue for a 'monster' spring volume melt?
« on: June 30, 2018, 05:35:27 AM »
Given the dearth of posts I guess it's fair to say the spring melt off didn't deliver.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2018, 05:16:41 AM »
Compactness is quite high at the moment:





Where do you find this information? I made a few observations and guesses a month ago based on the DMI modeled ice thickness that melting would be slow. Compactness as shown on DMI map suggested melting around the edges, followed by a slowdown.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Overdue for a 'monster' spring volume melt?
« on: June 15, 2018, 07:31:07 AM »
I know this sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking, but as far back as April, when I noticed the DMI modeled sea ice thickness, I predicted (in my own mind) that melt would be fairly high early on when the easy ice in Baring straight melted out, then it would stop dropping because the rest of the arctic had relatively thicker ice than usual. Again, it would sound more prescient had I possessed the cajones to have posted it.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic sea ice minimum early prediction
« on: June 15, 2018, 07:27:37 AM »
Had I voted I would have guessed around 4th to 7th lowest. It is not likely to be a record this summer, and doubtful second lowest either.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 15, 2018, 07:25:42 AM »
Based on the current weather forceast and low ice volume (I've been very depressed over this since April) could we be ice free by the end of June?

If the DMI modeled ice thickness has any validity, you should be very happy since the ice volume is significantly higher than the past few years at this date. As a result, it is doubtful the arctic will be ice free this year (or any year in the foreseeable future). Also, the NW passage is not likely to open this year. Just my guess.

48
If the DMI modeled ice thickness has any validity, either as an estimate of actual ice thickness or as a predictor of the propensity for the ice to melt, I would guess this year will end up higher than last year and probably higher than the last few years. My vote is 4,5 to 5,0 km2.

49
Not sure how much credence the DMI modeled ice thickness is, but based on that I predict this year will not see a record melt. Had I voted, I would have predicted 4.75 to 5.25 km2.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 Melting Season - Predictions and Speculation
« on: March 23, 2018, 04:52:07 AM »
The next 6 months will be a fascinating test of models.

This year's SSW which came more than a month later than the SSW in 2013 should not have the same effects because of the timing, but, as everyone living in the U.S and Europe has noticed the weather this March has been different - very cold and very stormy. It's going to be very interesting to watch the atmospheric dynamics and its effect on sea ice this spring.

I'm beginning to see that predicting arctic ice extent is much like predicting the next roll of the dice based on the previous rolls--previous rolls don't affect subsequent rolls even though there is statistical probability that certain rolls will occur more often than others. I have concluded there is too much unpredictability and the models are not very accurate to form a certain prediction. But if I had to predict, based on the current low temperature in the arctic compared to last couple of years, coupled with extremely high amounts of snowpack, I'd say we are in for a ho hum melting season that will underwhelm those who are primed to see a record drop this year.

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