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Messages - Cato

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 04:03:54 PM »
Surprise is a personal thing, just like confirmation bias.

Sometimes that latter must be overcome in order to accept the former.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2017, 02:07:31 PM »
Surprise is a personal thing, just like confirmation bias.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 07, 2017, 03:01:14 PM »
It's "surprisingly cold" over the Arctic, in spite of temperatures obviously higher than the average... What is surprising is they're only "slightly" higher than the average compared to what we've been used to see (DMI over-80 graph is quite telling). From a synoptic point of view a further cooling is to be expected in 48 hours, especially over Beaufort, Chuckchi and ESS. This should help accelerate freezing in the mentioned areas.

On a more general basis it will be interesting to see how the volume will react to these temperatures, as sea surface temperature is approaching -40C over a rather vast area between the CAB and CAA. I'm getting off-topic I know, better stop here ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 04:01:20 PM »
Thanks Jim, very interesting points! Guess the inflection point where the extent increase slows down (and the envelope becomes 'thinner' as a result) more or less coincides with the freezing of ESS and Chuckchi, right?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:48:05 PM »
+ 200 k  :o

Which metric went up 200k?

JAXA today gives 6,776 for 18th October which makes about 187 k up from 17th? Unless I'm mistaken of course...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2017, 11:31:36 AM »
+ 200 k  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2017, 01:51:42 PM »
FWIW, the 10-year average daily SIE increase from now through the end of the month has been 119k; in fact, the third week of October has historically seen the largest daily increases of the year, with a 10-year average of 136k. So if 2017 starts seeing sustained growth larger than that, I'll agree that something fundamentally wacky is going on. But so far, at least, growth since minimum has been right in line with normal, and the last two days have seen fairly sluggish growth.

Thanks Jim, fully agree with you: the normal sounds unusual to me just because I've got used to expect the worst about arctic ice...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 12, 2017, 01:47:23 PM »
Because confirmation bias are stronger than anything else, including laziness ;D

Personally I prefer to make my synoptic analyses and test them against reality than just watching a simulation. But I get your point: that map is simply fantastic!! :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2017, 02:24:38 PM »
Temperature anomalies over Chuckchi and Bering are quickly decreasing and if the synoptic charts are confirmed, in the next 7-10 days a major extension increase could be achieved in the mentioned areas and over ESS due to dispersion and quite lower temperatures.

In the meantime the ESS and Baffin Sea anomalies have been replaced with average or even lower than average temperatures. Ice surface temperatures are lower than -20C over a significant area between the CAB and the northern side of CAA, thus contributing to ice thickness increase. This ice surface cooling will be further enhanced due to the thermal HP which is forming over the CAB and will have a significant impact over weather conditions for the whole Arctic in the next days.

Ok nothing really unusual up there: it's October and all of this is normal. The problem is, what used to be "normal" is now a breaking news considering the status of the Arctic, but I'll take it anyway as a good news for the ice, and nothing more than that. As long as it lasts...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2017, 05:32:51 PM »
5.72 Mkmq vs. 5.59 Mkmq = +130,000 kmq ca.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2017, 12:02:27 AM »
Pavel you got a point here, but on the other hand surface sea temperature anomalies tend to decrease quickly if weather conditions are cold and windy. Anomalies are there, and are big, but the real driver in my humble opinion

In the next days a thermal HP will be settling over the CAB and heat loss through radiation will increase massively as a result. It also looks like the HP pulsation in the Pacific won't be able to push warm air from the ocean into the Arctic. Strong winds will be blowing over Chuckhi and Bering, and I expect a quick reduction of positive anomalies up there. Models are changing a lot from run to run,  but based on today's maps I'm fairly optimistic for the next few days, while of course I can't make any sensible forecast for the whole winter. I guess it's just a wait-and-see pattern, as usual ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 07, 2017, 08:35:39 AM »
+ 156,000!?  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »
Thanks Jim  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 05, 2017, 09:28:54 AM »
Hi everybody, nice to join you here. Well done Neven! :)

Just one question: is Jim updating JAXA data on a daily basis, or is this left to the initiative of anyone in a "common effort" as proposed in the previous thread, same subject?

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 04, 2017, 10:53:25 AM »
For October 3, JAXA SIE comes in at 5,187,695 km2, up by 47,447 km2

6th lowest as per the attached graph.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 04, 2017, 10:45:45 AM »
Tigertown thanks for your contribution.

Personally, and for what it's worth, I agree with keeping this thread alive and provide daily updates even without a graph, just by mentioning extension, difference with previous day, and possibly the ranking for the date. No need to attach a graph necessarily.  It would be a collective effort without putting the burden of a daily update on anyone in particular.

Personally I'm available to give my contribution as needed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 28, 2017, 10:28:46 AM »
Espen, thanks for what you've done so far. Your posts have been a "must read" every early morning for me, for such a long time. I'm sorry you're giving up, hope to see you back here soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 21, 2017, 02:09:24 PM »
Pavel I take your point and on a general basis I agree that in the long term this bump will be absorbed within the general descending trend which remains there, crystal clear. In the short term I agree that the SST positive anomalies will slow down the refreezing, but I reckon this is part of the "new" norm, whereby the early melting of ice leaves wide portion of sea exposed to extra-heating in summer. Otherwise we would fall back to the "old" norm whereby refreezing was quick, massive and associated with free fall in the average temperatures. The ice is still much less than it used to be, and everything comes together, also in terms of how the refreezing happens.

Regarding the next few days, instead, I'm convinced that the persistence of a big LP with very low values for the GP and associated strong winds and precipitations, will help reduce significantly the SST anomalies over the arctic. It's still too early to get all the benefits from thermal HP which help release huge quantities of heat through radiation... this normally happens at a later stage of the season I guess...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 21, 2017, 10:34:22 AM »
Most likely it will get to the 3d lowest in several days. I also expect slow October and November freeze up because of high SSTs in the peripheral seas - one of the consequences of the last melting season
A highly...questionable forecast in my humble opinion. Nothing suggests such an evolution in the short term, especially from a synoptic point of view. Positive SST anomalies in peripheral seas are absorbed quickly at the beginning of the re-freezing season, especially under synoptic conditions like the current ones, with very strong and cold winds and associated snowfalls. I can see it only go up, from now on.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 18, 2017, 04:13:30 PM »
I'll join the discussion to make my very humble point. In my opinion the minimum has been set and will not be updated. My assumption is based on the synoptic charts available today which, in spite of some compaction on chukchi and beaufort in the next few days, show an overall considerable temperature drop in many other sectors of the Arctic. Moreover some dispersion towards Kara, Barents and Laptev will be achieved after the action of the LP forming in the next few hours.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 15, 2017, 07:24:41 AM »
This sucks so much!  I, like all on this forum, need ZERO ice!  Those damn denialists have to be proven wrong!  Our earth is going to go ice free and they have to pay!!
Life's hard, but we need to go on in a way or another...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 02, 2017, 08:40:02 AM »
There was a lot of compaction in my view due to the persisting action of an HP on beaufort sea. This is also causing a sisignificant temperature drop though. As usual in this part of the season we're probably having refreezing on the CAB and melting/compaction of peripheral ice. They will tend to offset each other as we move towards the minimum...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2017, 07:40:02 AM »
I think you mean the equinox is approaching, not the solstice. I mean, yes, the solstice is approaching, just not as soon as the equinox.  :)
Ahahah good point gregcharles! I meant equinox but solstice is acceptable as well I reckon  ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2017, 12:08:15 AM »
It cannot happen. Refreezing will be starting very soon, if it is not already happening. Synoptic configuration is causing some compaction but also a significant temperature drop in the next days, with no significant wind and plenty of clear sky that with solstice approaching will help release significant quantity of heat by radiation. It won't happen in my view, no doubt about it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 22, 2017, 10:29:43 AM »
Guys, sometimes the easiest explanation is the most reliable: it's the principle of the Razor of Occam at the end of the day. The summer has been rather cool over the arctic and this is fact. There was no significant pre-conditioning, and this is another fact. The synoptic configuration has been quite benign so far, and this is another fact.

For a couple of months I've been stating that synoptic configuration was favorable to ice preservation: lack of strong winds, plenty of clouds in July and August, lack of significant cyclones at the end of August. Nobody should really be surprised by a slowing down of the melting rate in this period.

I think that nobody is immune to confirmation bias: we all know that the trend is clear and is to ice decrease both in extension and volume. This doesn't imply, however, that every year, and every month of that year, there will be a new record-low, or an exceptional melting or something has never been seen before.  2013 should have thought us something in this regard. As Neven has explained very well, 2017 has just dodged a canonball. There is no such thing as "hidden warming", forest fires or whatsoever: summer 2017 has just been very benevolent to the ice in terms of weather and temperatures, that's it. But the trend is clear and is to the low.

Whatever the end of this race, be it a 2nd place or a 5th place, this is not going to change anything in the long term, unfortunately. Which is the only thing that really matters.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 21, 2017, 12:18:49 PM »
No way in my humble opinion a process like ice melting going on for months can be stopped due to some smoke. In theory, one effect of forest fires is that black soot particles are deposited over the ice thus leading to extra-melting (reduction of albedo). But overall, it is obvious to expect that clouds are much more effective than smoke itself in reducing radiation. And clouds have never been missing in the last few weeks, thus helping to contain the melting.

IMHO the factors which helped avoiding a catastrophic melting have been the following: 1) Cloudy weather 2) Lack of GACs 3) Lower-than-average temperatures in July and August 4) Lack of pre-conditioning due to snow accumulation.

Not necessarily does this flattening of the curve anticipate an imminent and anticipated minimum. On the other hand, the synoptic configuration doesn't look like a catastrophic decrease in ice extension is to be expected, apart for some further and physiological compaction over the CAB. The season is almost over, and even a strong LP wouldn't make such a big damage in a couple of weeks' time, as temperatures are going to decrease significantly and precipitations would be mostly in the shape of snow.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 05, 2017, 10:19:32 AM »
Lots of compaction due to the action of rather strong winds from bering towards caa and cab. One or two more days like this, then dispersion should gain momentum IMHO. Interesting end of season I do quite agree.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 01, 2017, 05:48:01 PM »
Thanks Shared Humanity for your interesting post. IMHO the LP will not significantly impact the ice extension as it is forecast to affect an area where ice is rather compact. 2012 ice conditions were terrible at this same time over Beaufort and Chuckhi, and more vulnerable as a result.

Generally speaking I don't expect a major ice extension decrease in the next 7-10 days based on the synoptic configuration.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 24, 2017, 11:07:41 PM »
Hi guys I don't think a -10 k makes such a big difference honestly. If we think in terms of average decrease, I guess the last 10 days have seen an average decrease of about 90 k which is not surprising at all if we consider the synoptic configuration and the average temperatures on the Arctic. Temperatures have been in line with the average or below for the last 3 months almost.

As I stressed in previous posts, it's difficult to get better synoptic charts than the current ones at this moment of the melting season: plenty of clouds, dispersion and not too deep LPs are extremely beneficial in terms of ice preservation. In the next days we will see a more intense intake of warm winds from Pacific Ocean which will be bringing more clouds and precipitations as well.

Difficult to make forecasts at this point of the season honestly. But so far the synoptic analysis has worked quite well. In my very humble opinion, close as we are to the end of July, I believe the momentum for a major melting has probably been lost. But it's nothing more than an barely-educated guess...Just need to wait and see, there's not so much more to wait actually...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 21, 2017, 10:59:34 AM »
Fully agree with Neven's point about the impressive extent decrease in spite of cooler-than-usual conditions over the Arctic for quite a few weeks so far.

I guess the next 10 days will decide most of the final outcome in terms of minimum extent: conditions will be cool, cooler than today, with significant areas of the Arctic below 0C and associated snowfalls. No significant inflow of warm air is forecast, just some quick "injections" of warmer and wetter air from Pacific due to the H+ block forcing LPs to enter the Arctic, a typical late-summer synoptic pattern.

Regarding precipitations I'm attaching the maps of accumulated snowfalls over the next 6 days (ECMWF). Wait and see, it's an exciting end of melting season indeed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 05:49:13 PM »
As I expected, the trend is now showing early signs of a slower decrease rate. The synoptic configuration for the next 7-10 days is definitely not bad for the ice. Yet, if confirmed by the next few runs, it would lead in my opinion to a further flattening of the curve. The maps are quite interesting indeed: persistence of LP systems in the absence of too big gradients. In other terms, conditions conductive to ice scattering and preservation due to cloudy skies, some precipitations and no inflow of warm winds from lower latitudes....
The chaps on the 2017 melting season thread have a totally contrary view on the way things are going. I also have looked at various weather sites and have seen nothing to tell me that climatic conditions are going to change soon to promote increased melting.
I agree here

Guys, I'm not an expert in sea-ice, and therefore I'm very reluctant to make my point in front of so many experts in the field, writing on this great forum. If the chaps you are making reference to are basing their analysis on the conditions of the ice, well, I don't have the basic knowledge to oppose their view.

But if their analyses are based on synoptic configuration only, well, I can very well reinstate my point and confirm that weather conditions (based on the current model runs) are not conductive to melting. Or better, to bigger-than-average melting. Those maps are very clear to me. It is difficult to get better conditions for ice preservation than the ones depicted in the latest runs.

Even the temperature forecasts at sea level (though quite variable from run to run and not so reliable in general) show a clear temperature decrease over rather vast areas in the next few days. And it's not so normal (especially in this extremely warm period we're living in) to see below-zero temperatures over rather vast areas as you can see from the latest model runs.

And then, as usual... only time will tell.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 11:55:26 AM »
As I expected, the trend is now showing early signs of a slower decrease rate. The synoptic configuration for the next 7-10 days is definitely not bad for the ice. Yet, if confirmed by the next few runs, it would lead in my opinion to a further flattening of the curve. The maps are quite interesting indeed: persistence of LP systems in the absence of too big gradients. In other terms, conditions conductive to ice scattering and preservation due to cloudy skies, some precipitations and no inflow of warm winds from lower latitudes.

This is even more relevant in consideration of the fact that this is a key moment of the melting season and "fresh" conditions now would probably determine the outcome of the whole melting season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 13, 2017, 02:12:33 PM »
IMHO the weather forecasts are all right for the ice in the next 7-10 days. With the obvious premise that they need to be confirmed in the next runs. Lots of clouds, some precipitations, low-gradient LP systems... Considering that this is the most challenging period for the arctic ice, if today's runs are confirmed, I  would tend to be optimistic about 2017 minimum. Moreover, temperatures have been normal or slightly lower than normal for many weeks so far, which obviously helps.

I would not be surprised if 2017 didn't end up in the top-three. But only time will tell.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 10, 2017, 11:48:50 AM »
As I expected, the decrease rate has slowed down due to an anticipated melting in the Hudson in the previous weeks. Fully agree with Neven that next few days will be conductive to melting especially on Beaufort and Chuckchi due to very warm air being sucked-in from the Pacific.

On the other hand, it seems to be a relatively quick event, as a huge LP with low gradient is going to settled down after about 72 hours, a condition relatively beneficial to the ice. Let's see what happens... I expect a few days of century declines followed by a new flattening of the curve.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 05, 2017, 03:52:41 PM »
Interesting the extremely low extension of ice in Hudson compared to the average. This could help flatten the curve in the next few days, considering also that synoptic configurations seem to be rather benign (to the ice) so far... Wait and see, as usual...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 18, 2017, 10:56:01 PM »
Jim, it's the difference between being contrarian on the stock exchange and dilapidating your savings at the casinĂ² I guess ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 18, 2017, 11:25:21 AM »
I like contrarian strategies on the stock market therefore I agree with feeltheburn :) synoptic configuration has changed significantly and current conditions are much more favourable to ice preservation. Melting ponds evolution is quite encouraging as well.

Record lows remain the most crowded trading by far, but real big money is made on unpopular tradings :) :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 01, 2017, 10:42:03 AM »
A "normal" start of melting season I'd say. Where "normal" refers to the last decade unfortunately. I'm not too much impressed by the performance so far: 2017 is not leading for the moment, but this does not imply that the melting season will be gentle with the arctic ice, as we all know. The volumes are small and this is just worrying.

The extension has been sustained by colder-than-usual conditions over the Barents which as usual have been associated with transport. The synoptic conditions have been fairly decent so far: the persistence of HP systems have prevented inflow of warmer and more humid air from the oceans. But in June this pattern can be associated with melting in-situ and formation of melting ponds, and therefore a "gentle" start of the melting season could turn easily into something much less gentle unfortunately.

It looks like in the next few days LP systems will start entering the arctic and persisting. This could help with temperatures as a persistence of the HP pattern in June would have compromised the rest of the season due to pre-conditioning. At least in my humble opinion.

There's a whole story to be written. I guess it will be the usual story of decreasing ice extent and volume, but so far there are not especially worse conditions than usual in terms of snow cover, synoptic patterns and even sea surface temperature (positive anomalies on Barents have decreased significantly). If it is true and evident that the ice is thinner, on the other hand a higher extension would help in terms of albedo, especially on the Beaufort sea, compared to one year ago.

Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. A cloudy June could avoid a major disaster in terms of ice melting, fingers crossed...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 04, 2017, 09:52:24 AM »
Fairly normal in my view: ice extension deficit was concentrated over peripheral areas like st Laurence bay or okhotsk where typically ice melts very early. Which explains why we're now 3rd in the ranking, with the additional dispersion over barents after the unusually cold conditions in the past two weeks.

This melting story is all to be written and as usual synoptic conditions over the arctic in May will be essential to make an educated guess about what is to come in the next few months...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 28, 2017, 11:01:51 AM »
It's a really mixed situation: if on the one hand the (probably) umpteenth lowest maximum just confirms a trend which is crystal clear in itself, on the other hand significant reduction of export from the Fram, very low temperatures over CAA and Beaufort and thicker ice transportation towards Beaufort and Chuckchi are good news for arctic ice in realation to the incoming melting season...

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 27, 2017, 11:31:07 AM »
As anticipated in my previous post, extension has come to a stop due to a less favourable synoptic configuration over several peripheral areas of the Arctic. In particular, compaction is ongoing in the Fram (thus reducing export which has been massive in the  last few weeks). Okhotsk is experiencing very mild conditions, and it will just get milder in the next days. Barents does not show much potential for extension increase as well. Therefore I would not be surprised if the maximum had already been reached last week, in line with my expectations.

On the other hand it is worth mentioning that temperatures have significantly decreased over the Arctic. Ice temperature, in particular, in the last few weeks has been significantly lower than one year ago over vast areas of the Arctic, in particular CAA and CAB. Conditions will be extremely cold over CAA and part of Beaufort for the next 7-10 days, thus helping with ice thickening especially in areas like Beaufort where thickness is currently very low.

IMVHO in spite of a one more record-low maximum possibly already achieved, synoptic conditions are not the same unfavourable in terms of distribution of multi-year ice and thickness over critical areas of the Arctic. Of course summer weather conditions will be key to any outcome, including a new summer record-minimum, which remains highly probable in my view. But there are also reasons for a quite cautious and moderate optimism which I'm not willing to disregard.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 20, 2017, 10:22:30 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if the maximum was made in the next one-week time. It would be another low maximum, needless to say. Bering is getting warmer every day from now on, and Barents will get milder in a few days as well. Potential for ice growth only for Okhotsk and some dispersion in Davis / Newfoundland. Temperatures will be low over the CAB and especially CAA, where increased ice thickness could delay the NW passages opening this year. A lot of transportation ongoing through the Fram, and for the next 4-5 days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 15, 2017, 11:42:23 AM »
Everything as per the forecasts which, by the way, confirm very low temperatures in Bering, and persistence of low temperatures over Barents as well, where there's space for major extension increase after persisting conditions favourable to compaction in the last weeks. What is more, temperatures close to the seasonal average values will persist over much of the arctic for th next 7-10 days (which is a big news, considering the current trend..)

As usual freezing comes with dispersion, amplifying the overall effect. There's a price to pay though, as transportation through the Fram will probably be massive, due to the combination of persisting strong winds and presence of thick ice north of the strait.

Summarising, I don't see 2017 ending up with a record-low maximum, but in the meantime I remain pessimistic about the overall status of arctic ice, considering the massive volume deficit shown by PIOMAS.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 13, 2017, 02:48:37 PM »
As anticipated by Neven, very cold conditions forecast for Bering for the next 7 days or so. Colder over Barents as well. There's space for a significant extension increase in the next days. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised at all if 2017 maximum was not a new...minimum.

The real issue is about volumes though.. As we've seen from the PIOMAS the situation is just horrible. Temperatures have been "less abnormal" than usual over the Arctic for the last few weeks, and for the next few days there will even be lower-than-average temperatures over several areas, due to a compaction of the PV. Just hope that this will help increasing the volumes over beaufort, Chuckchi and ESS which would somewhat help during melting season.

It is worth noting that there is much more ice in the NW passages than one year ago, as the ice is significantly thicker up there. Winter temperatures have been fairly normal over that area, and they'll keep being low in the next days (between -35C and -42C currently). Just a few drops of good news in a sea of bad ones.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: February 07, 2017, 03:08:58 PM »
Conditions favourable to compaction in Barents persisting until the end of this week, followed by general cooling. Increasingly colder on Chuckchi and Bering in the next few days, with associated ice extension increase. Very cold over CAA and Beaufort for the next few days.

In this period I'm more interested in the effect of synoptic conditions in terms of ice surface temperature, rather than ice extension. As we've seen from Neven's PIOMAS outlook, IMHO the biggest issue is not just with ice extension but rather with volumes which are really terrible. Cold conditions over the arctic are vital to accumulate some more reserves with a view to the incoming melting season, much more than a few kmq of more extension in peripheral areas which will melt down at the first ray of sun.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 31, 2017, 11:45:24 AM »
Just to be clear, do you think there will be a drop sometime in the next 7-10 days, or that the total extent figure 7-10 days from now will be lower than it is today?

Hi Greg, it's just an educated guess, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a total extent figure lower than the actual, in 10 days' time. The split of PV is really massive and, if on the one hand very cold air will be moving to Canada, the USA, Russia and Europe, on the other hand very big areas of the Arctic will be affected by warm air advection from Atlantic and Pacific side.

In particular, southerly winds will be blowing over Barents for quite a few days, at least 7 days starting from tomorrow, due to the concurrent action of a very active LP in northern Atlantic, and the opposition of a Scand+ high pressure system. The ice recently formed in Barents will be easily compacted and moved northwards with significant extent reduction in that area.

Also Bering will be heavily hit by an advection of warm Pacific air due to a strong HP system in Alaska, even though temperatures will not be exteremely high due to thermal inversion. And Okhotsk will not be any better, due to the action of LP systems bringing warmer air, winds and rough sea conditions.

The only sectors which will remain cold are the CAA, which has been rather cold for quite some time so far, and the coast of Newfoundland and Davis Streit, but I can't see how this could reasonably offset the massive atlantic advection over Barents and the growth slow-down in the other sectors.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 30, 2017, 01:52:18 PM »
Very unfavourable synoptic conditions for arctic ice in the next 1-2 weeks due to a major split of the PV and inflow of warm air from both Pacific and Atlantic. Warmer on Okhotsk as well. I expect a  reduction in ice extension over the next 7-10 days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 25, 2017, 02:35:41 PM »
In the next few days there's space for some further upside in the okhotsk and bering area, and barents as well starting from tomorrow. In one week time, though, major changes in the synoptic configuration could bring warmer air to the pacific side and barents as well, with the polar vortex more active on canada-newfoundland: a configuration which is especially negative for ice extension.

I agree that volumes and thickness are more important now than extension, which provide limited information on the overall condition of arctic ice.

In particular, it is interesting to note that so far winter has been warmer than usual on Hudson and Newfoundland, and colder than one year ago on CAA and Beaufort, when the gyre was very active.
Distribution of ice shows thicker ice in CAA, CAB and part of Beaufort and ESS, and thinner in Chuckchi. Thinner ice on Hudson as well. Overall, apparently, a more favourable distribution of ice thickness compared to one year ago, even though transport from the Fram seems to be much more relevant this year.

As usual, only time will tell.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 21, 2017, 11:15:25 PM »
If only someone made the effort of reading my previous posts before raising discussions about the meaning of the word "recovery", so many words would have not been spent uselessly. "This of course does not challenge the long term trend, which is quite clear. But I would not be surprised if there was a temporary recovery in ice extension and volume, from now on and for the next one-to-two years." I thought this sentence was clear enough. Recovery to me means, for example, passing from the last position to the second-last. Is that clear enough now? It's honestly tiring sometimes, and disappointing being forced to add a disclaimer to any discussion like "I don't mean to say that ice won't disappear, or the like". And references to tea parties and Fox news then... For an Italian like me :)... it sounds just like complete and unwillingly funny nonsense.

I'll take Neven's request to close this senseless argument and focus on more sensible issues. I have the greatest respect for his work, his professionalism and intellectual honesty as I've been following his blog for the several years, and I beg your pardon if my post led someway to this senseless off-topic discussion. It was not my intention.

Regarding the recent JAXA extension increase, I maintain my opinion that with such low temperatures in Bering area, freezing is just what one should expect. There's -25C in Savoonga and -27C in Mekoryuk as we speak. Dispersion IMHO is in most cases associated with cold air advections and therefore it's a difficult and probably useless exercise to try separating the two issues which generally tend to act concurrently. For example, the LP currently forming in the Pacific will activate strong, and cold winds from Alaska to Russia, thus leading to extension increase for both advection of colder air, and dispersion of the existing ice offshore Alaska.

The same has happened recently for Barents, where cold air from the CAB has moved to Svalbard and Kara Sea. Again, combination of two concurring factors: colder air moving southwards and dispersion. The same typically applies to Hudson as well, associated with cold westerlies moving from Manitoba or Nunavut to the Atlantic. There is therefore not much point in justifying the current extension increase with "dispersion" only. Dispersion and advection of cold air just tend to act concurrently in most cases.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: January 20, 2017, 10:45:26 PM »
I didn't mean to sound revolutionary mentioning that sea gets frozen with temperatures of -25C. I understand, though, that anything which goes against the narrative of the "death spiral" and so on and so forth is seen as a threat. I can't see any threat in mentioning that ice is forming in bering because it's cold, however revolutionary this concept might sound.

Regarding the use of the word "recovery", well, free to choose anything sounding more adherent to the narrative of the dying and hopeless patient, I'm OK with it, honestly. Especially considering I'm not a mother tongue English speaker...

For the rest, I watch the thickness maps from dmi and I see much more ice than one year ago in CAB, CAA, part of Beaufort and ESS. And less ice in Hudson, Chuckchi and Barents. I watch the maps and I see low temperatures and favourable synoptic configurations for the arctic ice in the next 7-10 days, and I feel more optimistic for a recovery... sorry... for a dead-cat-bounce than I was one year ago. And if the Nino has been a hot topic for the last two years, I cannot understand why it should sound so heretic to expect a decrease of temperatures over the arctic now the enso is neutral again.

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