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Messages - longwalks1

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The rest / microwaves salt
« on: November 07, 2017, 04:36:13 PM »
I had a rude awakening once in court.  It turns out that a few drops of human blood had gotten onto the special cloth mesh on the microwave intruder structures on a nuclear missile silo complex in the Grand Forks missile silo field at the site near Larimore, ND. It was our 10th celebration of Martin Luther King's birthday in the Grand Forks Air Force Base  and missile field. 

They were going to have to replace some of them, cost of thousands of dollars because the salt in the blood had ruined them.  I had North Dakota sabotage charges  added onto the trespass charge.  So we have to know that microwaves and salt have been in the literature for a few years 

In the end, all charges were dropped. The first judge "Smiling" Frank Cassanda had severe Alzheimers and he was slightly delusional at arraignment and started talking about settling it with a fist fight after he told a co--defendant  three times she brought her child along 2 years before for our annual Martin Luther King day actions - wrong woman, we were getting help from the Univ of North Dakota law department about why weren't these charges federal, and 4 other counties districts attorneys were stating that they would not prosecute, let the feds do it. Judge Frank's petulant Alzheimers outburst ensured we would get a rational judge, case closed. And I went back to sheltering homeless war veterans.

Nearly 30 years later and veterans still die in the streets and U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico receive a substandard disaster response while those nuclear Auschwitz ovens on a  rocket receive lavish '"digs" and the Obama administration embarked on the most expensive retrofit of  weaponry outlawed by Kellog-Briand treaty in 5 decades.

peace out.   


Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: November 01, 2017, 07:33:11 PM »
  From Daniel B.
Sure, heat-related deaths have increased.  But at the same time, cold-related deaths have subsided.  That is similar to those railing against vaccines, because of the few negative results, while ignoring the decrease in mortality from the disease itself. 

As Neven counseled me once months ago,, "You posted that every 3 months you hide comments from one person to stay calm, you should do that for   "**"."  Done.   

There is a blog out there that is called "Not Even Wrong"   That snippet is beyond facile. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 27, 2017, 06:30:54 PM »
As far as elasticity goes, it was a part of the debate at TOD (TheOilDrum)  till it died.  I formed my views years ago.

For a review of the last 50 years of Tar Sands extraction from The Pembina Institute. (maybe someone posted the first part)

I find things like this via and but am being overwhelmed by caring for parents and their aging house and new job back in the usOfa.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 10, 2017, 09:35:47 PM »
I do hope to see more of the Norsk womyn (and men) and any others from CAGE on EGU videos again about Svalbard. To hear the evolution of young field scientists after a couple years in a complex developing fields is instructive and fascinating.  From the 11:00 minute on is about deep seepage creating a biological oasis. 

   It was previously posted. 

When I moved back south, I shredded many videos from before crossing border and did not back the big ones onto the cloud.  Off topic slightly, but I miss the video from a Pleistocence presentation where he goes into the data he has assembled and graph where he makes the case that a methane burp at the very beginning of agriculture can be shown and he pinpoints cattle and rice.  If anyone has it off the top of their head, I would like to review it.  Several years old.

This is the place to be looking at conflicting views in the science and scientists.  From the Ruppell paper I get that the ins and outs of the methane cycle has significant degrees of uncertainty, and they do their best.  And also that presently the largest methane emission by far today is cattle and rice production. 

From Semiltov and Shakhova etc. we now have a several year survey showing an increase and raw data to be applied to finding and making models  of the present day and models for the future. 
Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf 
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15872  previously posted here.

The CAGE survey around Svalvard is another example of raw data coming out, which is not at the caprice U.S. funding so much.  Yeah.

This is an evolving situation in the science and in the field.  I am reminded about the studies about winter pemafrost methane emissions and how they found a huge difference between wet and dry decaying permafrost emissions. 
Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget     doi/10.1073/pnas.1516017113           That is not so relevant for the previous discussion, it is just an example of how the studies on methane and methane emissions from the arctic is ongoing. 

Can we agree to disagree amicably.  I have not read the new stuff yet.  If anyone who has read it can post their opinions about differences that might occur with light versus dark with the photosynthesis portions;  what are the rate limiting presursors (sulfur compounds?) and what effects  these pathways would have on ph I would deeply appreciate.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 06, 2017, 04:53:29 PM »
Nice, however photosynthesis is limited some times of the year.   

The forum / Re: login broken
« on: September 13, 2017, 05:14:09 PM »
Similar.  The top left login dnw (does not work).  However the lower middle login does work.  No problems with logout.  No other glitches or major bugs noted.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 13, 2017, 05:36:41 AM »
I was so stunned with all the smoke I saw and smelt in Winnipeg last year during the Womens Fifa Soccer, much from Alberta.  Slightly amazed at the smoke I notice via the moon in northern Iowa this year from further afield. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: July 25, 2017, 07:54:52 AM »
Well, not nuclear power per se, but it might have some in common with security from outside groups for nuclear reactors.  In Germany,

and for the first time in a 21-year-long series of protests against the deployment of U.S. B61 thermonuclear bombs there, climbed on top of one large bunker used for nuclear weapons. After cutting through two exterior fences and two more fences surrounding the large earth-covered bunkers, the five spent more than one hour unnoticed sitting on the bunker. No notice of the group was taken until after two of them climbed down to write “DISARM” on the bunker’s metal front door, setting off an alarm. Surrounded by vehicles and guards searching on foot with flashlights, the five eventually alerted guards to their presence by singing, causing the guards to look up. The internationals were eventually taken into custody more than two hours after entering the base.

Good folk, over a century combined of nonviolence in living and in Khan-Ghandi-Kingian nonviolence usage and tactics. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: July 16, 2017, 12:54:51 AM »
in re life extension - Neutron embrittlement.  Also concrete does have a life span aside from radiation.  . 

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 11, 2017, 04:30:14 AM »
Wow, Not the most outgoing womens religious order, a little more conservative that Dominicans or Benedictines, but a strong commitment to peace and justice at the grassroots level, often involving education.  Having worked and/or  been arrested with a few sisters religious over the decades I am saddened with the language used; "nuns" to be me is a form of deprecation and distancing.  For the combination of shimmering vibrancy and stability that I have notices from friends and acquaintances who are sisters religious, I really detest the word "nun".

No water cannons or tear gas to be used on them (hopefully).  Will be intersting to watch how it unforlds.  Note - I will watch NCR - National Catholic Reporter if they have updates, none yet at 

The rest / Re: Jason Group - Earth Turning to Mars?
« on: July 03, 2017, 07:10:48 PM »
"On The Beach", "Alas Babylon" and "Not this August" and other dystopian novels are available as free ebooks via  I did enjoy working on the proofing on several.   All books on FadedPage are expired copyright via "death plus 50 years" and done in a similar method as Distributed Proofreaders, albeit via the independent entity of Distributed Proofreaders Canada.

More vetted sources that have shaped me are the early 1970's SciAmerican article on reactor safety with the final paragraphs opening up the possibility of sabotage or nuclear strike on reactors (they neglected the fuel pools),  the 1970's book Science in the Cause of Man by Gerard Piel (SciAm editor) about the consequences of a megaton warhead detonated at around 160 km, and the Science article from the early 1980's on nuclear winter would be a firmer foundation to a world view.  And more good reading would be the more recent paper by von Hippel et. al. on fuel pool safety which  you can get to the source via the UCS (Union of Concerned Scientists) web site "All Things Nuclear".

I did have 10 friends or acquaintances who went to Basra between 1995 and early 2003 and got the tour from a pediatric oncologist there.  It does appear that with the proper circumstances that oxidation of spent or depleted fuel  can result in particles that  exhibit Brownian motion.  Much disputation occurs about the details. 

peace out. 

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 21, 2017, 03:42:52 AM »
For a break and sailing off into the past, all the way to 1906 in the Arctic - before it becomes officialy open source   -

REPORT ON THE DOMINION GOVERNMENT EXPEDITION TO HUDSON BAY AND THE ARCTIC ISLANDS ON BOARD THE D. G. S. NEPTUNE [The Cruise of the Neptune] [Recovered for PP] (1906)       is available for "Smooth Reading."   

.epub, .html, pdf, .txt, etc. are available at the Smooth Reading page for Distributed Proofreaders Canada

You might need to sign up to download it.  Or you can wait a few weeks or months and get it when done at after it finishes post processing. It will also go to Gutenberg.  Only small request is to contact them if you see typos. 

peace out. 

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 23, 2017, 11:35:34 PM »
About doi:10.5194/bg-14-2283-2017  The origin of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf unraveled
with triple isotope analysis

A search of the pdf shows that the word clathrate is never mentioned.

Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: May 04, 2017, 06:52:39 PM »
I have been going with the 5 year as 86 (20 year 70?) for my cursory look.  So for a ball park figure of 1700ppm methane using 20 year models,, that would be 1.7 ppt methane time 70 yields 120  added to the CO2e.  I do go with the view that a large part of todays values is still highly influenced by rice farming and ruminants (cattle).  I saw some graphs of the last 10,000 years and the advent of rice farming and domestication of ruminants did cause a rise. 

I really can't speak for the models.  My hunch is that anything over a 20 year model for CO2e is not well grounded. 

Policy and solutions / Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« on: May 02, 2017, 02:47:40 PM »
It seems a bit of a stray lately in this topic.  Living next to Ontario (70 km), etc. I have liked the postings, but maybe elsewhere.

The mission of Independent WHO is to expose WHO’s failings whilst calling for WHO independence away from influence by the worldwide nuclear syndicate: According to WHO Independence’s Web Site: “The World Health Organization (WHO) is failing in its duty to protect those populations who are victims of radioactive contamination.”

Ms Katz worked inside the WHO for 18 years. She insists that WHO, in cahoots with IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), dangerously misrepresents the inherent dangers of ionizing radiation, an insinuation that smacks in the face with egregiousness galore.

Ms Katz’s April 2017 interview, which this article is based upon, can be heard in its entirety.

For the record, I have known John LaForge for years and read the Yaboklov book  where he resides in the woods off grid.  He is my friend.


Permafrost / Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« on: April 27, 2017, 01:41:46 AM »
From DeSmog Canada via David Suzuki foundation and St. Francis Xavier University

Scientists Find Methane Pollution from B.C.’s Oil and Gas Sector 2.5 Times What B.C. Government Reports
Using infrared cameras and gas detection instruments at over a thousand oil and gas sites during a three-year period, scientists from the David Suzuki Foundation in partnership with St. Francis Xavier University recorded fugitive methane emissions being released from facilities directly into the atmosphere on a perpetual basis.

The study estimates methane pollution from industry in B.C. is at least 2.5 times higher than the B.C. government reports. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with the warming potential 84 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20 year period

Original paper in process
Mobile measurement of methane emissions from natural gas developments in Northeastern British Columbia, Canada

doi:10.5194/acp-2017-109                   Open source   Primarily focused on the Peace Area of British Columbia, Canada.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:53:44 AM »
I took some notes on the Ruppel-Kessler review "interaction of climate change and methane hydrates"  mentioned much further above.  doi:10.1002/2016RG000534

Some of the acronyms are reused in the "Relic Gas Hydrate" article above   DOI: 10.2118/166925-RU   From my Ruppel-Kessler notes

GHSZ theoretical gas hydrate stability zone
BGHS  base of gas hydrate stability (BGHS)
AOM anaerobic oxidation methane   MOx aerobic oxidation methane
SRZ sulfate reducing zone
PAGH Permafrost Associated Gas Hydrates
D/O Dansgaard-Oeschger events warming of intermediate ocear waters.

Russian study
STGF South Tambey Gas Field

The Relic Gas Hydrate paper is from October of 2013. Nice work, Maybe I will use the authors and references  to finally get some decent kinetics disassociation of methane hydrates.   

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 19, 2017, 05:48:27 PM »
Probably should go into empire, but
1.  I did not pay taxes to US govt and therefore did not pay for nuclear weapons  when running homeless shelters
2.  I did not pay taxes to US govt when living and working with L'Arche Mobile Alabama
3.  I did and do not pay taxes to US govt when living and working with L'Arche Winnipeg in Canada.
4.  I have been voting against Rep. Steve King of Iowa via mail.  He is one very hard core racist. 

Yes, Trump is some sort of lethally evil mutant "son of a" windigo or golem - but for me, it was Obama who has been the worst in decades when it came to nuclear proliferation. 

For me reading the following was a good review and a distillation of my opinions about Obama's legacy and now Mr. Trump. Some of the more strident phrases against Obama are not as far as I would go however.

For me, the thing that bothers me the most about Trump is his back-pedalling on certain issues, abortion, etc. etc.  I remember once at church (Martin Luther on Dr. Martin Luther KIng Jr. Ave in Mobile Al).  I was the only caucasian member, it was the closest ELCA (moderate Lutheran) church to where I lived and I was very welcome. 39 y.o. Rev. Dianne who was AWESOME had recently died.  The 80 year old bench minister was quite good.  Ex. Governor George Wallace of Alabama who ran for U.S.  president on a very racist platform had just died recently also.  The pastor 2/3rds the way through the sermon started talking about forgiveness as a policy and talking about Wallaces run for the presidency.  Hairs were going up on everyones necks and the  stunned silence seemed deafening.  My initial thought was, no, it is not time yet, it was "Guv." Wallace's choice, not his belief to embrace racism after his first loses in the 1940's. 

However it was soon after that I was able to let out an "Amen, Henry Wallace, 1948 Henry Wallace of Iowa." The vice president for 8 years under F.D. Rooseveldt ran for President with a policy of detente  or living with the Soviet Union in 1948.  Everyone breathed and the hairs on peoples necks went down. People still remembered H. Wallace or their parents had talked about him.  Henry was anti-racist all his life.  (Myself, I had worked in the Henry Wallace builiding in a lab in the basement for 5 years). 

My rambling point is, that educated people who have been under repression often will despise and detest longer the actions of people who chose to align themselves with evil as opposed to people who start with and continue with it.  That for me is crucial to me for the flavour of my detest of Trump.  And Wallace and Trump have a similar flavour.  No, for true evil you have to go to the likes of George Wallaces running mate, General Curtis LeMay (especially the dams in Northern Korea which he said may have been 1 million civilians drowned) and Jefferson Beauregard Davis Sessions Jr. the US attorney general 

Obama, in the end, my belief is that he did not want to get shot like MLK Jr. or JFK. 

It is not what happens in the world - it is where you place your feet in every step and the direction of your heart. 

Policy and solutions / Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« on: March 14, 2017, 11:18:30 PM »
And a different take on small and modular reactors at the end of the article and in the middle an analysis of the standard large reactors

Small is beautiful?
The four Third Way / Breakthrough Institute authors argue that nuclear power must become substantially cheaper – thus ruling out large conventional reactors “operated at high atmospheric pressures, requiring enormous containment structures, multiply redundant back-up cooling systems, and water cooling towers and ponds, which account for much of the cost associated with building light-water reactors.”

following is a quote of a quote from Bull Atom Scient (the one that Sam Day used to edit decades ago)
“Without a clear-cut case for their advantages, it seems that small nuclear modular reactors are a solution looking for a problem. Of course in the world of digital innovation, this kind of upside-down relationship between solution and problem is pretty normal. Smart phones, Twitter, and high-definition television all began as solutions looking for problems.

Author is
Dr Jim Green is the national nuclear campaigner with Friends of the Earth Australia and editor of the Nuclear Monitor newsletter, where a longer version of this article was originally published.

Another one by Dr. Jim White

AGU 2014 Nye Lecture 
Abrupt Climate Change: Past, Present and Future
Space And Intelligence

Unfortunately it went into the wrong thread Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season Reply 2948 and little attribution given. Reply 2949 did not help.  Yes, mea culpa, I was out of line for comment 2973.  Thanks for starting this thread.

He also goes by Dr. James White.

The rest / Re: Deniers Vs Science
« on: March 09, 2017, 02:07:58 AM »
The  is based on an original source.

Going back to the "Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C?" page and a half letter in Nature Climate Change by James A. Screen* and Daniel Williamson Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK  - a lot can be gleaned out of their references.     doi:10.1038/nclimate3248     

1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement  FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 (UNFCCC, 2015);
2.   IPCC   Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
3.  Cohen, J. et al Nat. Geosci. , 627–637 (2014).
4. Wang, M. & Overland, J. E. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36,  L07502 (2009).
5. Boe, J., Hall, A. & Qu, X. Nat. Geosci. 2,  341–343 (2009).
6. Liu, J., Song, M., Horton, R. M. & Hu, Y. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110,  12571–12576 (2013).
7. Massonnet, F. et al. Cryosphere 6,  1383–1394 (2012).
8. Mahlstein, I. & Knutti, R. J. Geophys. Res. 117,  D06104 (2012).
9. Notz, D. & Stroeve, J. Science 354,  747–750 (2016).
10. Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 534,  631–639 (2016).

This is not the first paper (and this is actually just a letter) to arrive at dates in the middle of this century. 

FWIW at least they are not moving the goal posts and are using

when the Arctic first becomes ice-free at the end of summer; specifically, the first year when the average September sea-ice extent falls below 1 million km2.

No, I do not believe this paper will referenced much if at all 2 or three years hence.   However they do know a whole lot more about math than I do.        ##Dr. Screen     ##Dr. Williamson

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 08, 2017, 11:22:38 AM »
And for the above - for downloading just the audio from youtube (and one thumbnail image) and converting to mp3

youtube-dl --extract-audio --prefer-ffmpeg --audio-format mp3 --audio-quality 0 --embed-thumbnail  "URL"

works quite well in linux and BSD if you have an up to date youtube-dl

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: March 07, 2017, 01:50:39 AM »
Geese returned to Winnipeg, MB today.  Possibly call them French-Canadian Geese because these first few go to the Seine River.  Not that much earlier, I've seen them in colder and more deep snow on the 12th.  Peace out,

Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: 2017 PIOMAS Maximum Monthly Figure
« on: March 05, 2017, 04:25:57 PM »
How many significant digits is the data good for?

From the PIOMAS web site.
Model Validation and Uncertainty

PIOMAS has been extensively validated through comparisons with observations from US-Navy submarines, oceanographic moorings, and satellites. In addition model runs were performed in which model parameters and assimilation procedures were altered.  From these validation studies we arrive at conservative estimates of the uncertainty in the trend of  ± 1.0 103 km3/decade. The uncertainty of the  monthly averaged ice volume anomaly is estimated as ±0.75  103 km3. Total volume uncertainties are larger than those for the anomaly because model biases are removed when calculating the anomalies. The uncertainty for October total ice volume is estimated to be  ±1.35 103 km3 .  Comparison of winter  total volumes with other volume estimates need to account for the fact that the PIOMAS domain currently does not extend southward far enough to cover all areas that can have winter time ice cover.  Areas in the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence are partially excluded from the domain.  Details on model validation can be found in Schweiger et al. 2011  and (here). Additional information on PIOMAS can be found (here)

And from the PIOMAS web site cited paper on "Volume time series and uncertainties:"

Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume
Axel Schweiger, 1 Ron Lindsay, 1Jinlun Zhang, 1 Mike Steele, 1 Harry Stern, 1 and Ron Kwok 2
Received 25 February 2011; revised 27 April 2011; accepted 7 June 2011; published 27 September 2011.

In general PIOMAS,
relative to observations, appears to overestimate the thickness
of thin ice and underestimate the thickness of thick ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2017, 03:29:20 AM »
The 2014 Dr. Jim White youtube talk was to me worth listening to.  I am not going to view it again a second time at this point.  However, since he was maligned in this section, I post here a 2017 talk of his.

More climate based and less of the historical basis of ice cores and ice ages, move elsewhere if felt appropriate.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 01, 2017, 03:10:30 AM »
The end of "Clean Coal?"

In an apparent first salvo in a public relations campaign to shift blame for the Kemper power plant boondoggle away from himself and corporate management and onto state regulators, Southern Company chief executive officer Tom Fanning admitted this week that the Kemper plant is not economically viable as a coal-burning power plant.

When the PSC held hearings in October 2009 to determine if the state actually needed additional electrical power, the Sierra Club pointed out that Mississippi already had 12 natural gas plants that sat idle 85 percent of the time and could provide up to 7,995 megawatts of power. Many of these were so-called merchant plants that were for sale for $500 million or less.

$7.1 Billion US$ to build.   582-megawatt electric power plant

The plan - dig lignite locally, gasify via Integrated gasification combined cycle, and then  use CO2 to inject locally into older nearby oil fields.  Oh, and export the technology to Poland for their lignite reserves.   

And Chu on this - Dr. Chu was a big booster of this. 

More info     Kemper Plant   Info on the Integrated gasification combined cycle. 

I was down the road for another year in Mobile Alabama  2006-2007 and am well aware of the snake oil and corruption associated with Mississippi politics and the Haley Barbour clan.  Adding KBR and Southern Company to the mix makes a for one of the most perfect boondoggles ever on the planet. 

Antarctica / Re: Trends for the Southern Ocean
« on: February 26, 2017, 07:15:32 PM »
I stumbled over this one via the Carbon Cycle  thread and also the ocean acidification site

Southern Ocean Phytoplankton in a Changing Climate

Stacy L. Deppeler1* and Andrew T. Davidson2,3

1Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
2Australian Antarctic Division, Department of the Environment and Energy, Kingston, TAS, Australia
3Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

Predicting the net effect of multiple climate-induced stressors over a range of environments is complex. Yet understanding the response of SO phytoplankton to climate change is vital if we are to predict the future state/s of the ecosystem, estimate the impacts on fisheries and endangered species, and accurately predict the effects of physical and biotic change in the SO on global climate. This review looks at the major environmental factors that define the structure and function of phytoplankton communities in the SO, examines the forecast changes in the SO environment, predicts the likely effect of these changes on phytoplankton, and considers the ramifications for trophodynamics and feedbacks to global climate change. Predictions strongly suggest that all regions of the SO will experience changes in phytoplankton productivity and community composition with climate change. The nature, and even the sign, of these changes varies within and among regions and will depend upon the magnitude and sequence in which these environmental changes are imposed. It is likely that predicted changes to phytoplankton communities will affect SO biogeochemistry, carbon export, and nutrition for higher trophic levels.

It is a review and  not short.  It is not that difficult to read for the most part.  It goes into the major zones of the Southern Ocean - Permanently Open Ocean Zone, Seasonal Sea Ice Zone,  Marginal Ice Zone,  Antarctic Continental Shelf Zone. West Antarctica, East Antarctica and the phytoplankton environment in each..  The conclusions are heavily prefaced by the lack of data and the difficulty in getting ice thickness, and chlorophyll values from under the ice. 

I am still digesting it, but I like it enough that I will probably convert to .epub and import the illustrations.
Shut my mouth, it is already available for download as an .epub. 

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: February 24, 2017, 02:10:16 PM »
No, I am not familiar.  The EU passed a "resolution"  which is a wish.  The Bellona article does not mention any regulations.  Without major changes in how ships are built (S. Korea, etc) and the other major shipping countries (China, etc.) It will be moot.  Bellona could do a better job of posting upstream raw sources of it's news.  Bellona goes for incremental change and catalyzes enviromental and nuclear clean ups - especially in Russia.  The incremental part here is to start with the cruise lines, with a Norwegian company getting the most benefits for their environmental cruises.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: February 24, 2017, 02:41:09 AM »
Watching some of the canned livestream.  of NoDAPL. 

It was a much gentler scene in NoDak.for the nuclear missile civil disobedience (10 consecutive years) during the era of Governor Sinner of North Dakota (and at all the actions was his brother,Roman Catholic priest Fr. Sinner).  But ever since 911 everything has changed for civil dissent and the usofa police forces have been heavily militarized. 

Once in Missouri, in a state park near Whiteman AFB, over 100 of us were in a circle, doing the Lord's prayer, and as we came to "but deliver us from evil, up from the treetops arose 3 helicopters and we were triangulated.  They were sideways, gun door open, and the three "60s" had an airman in sunglasses touching the machine gun pointed upwards.  Afterwards it seemed we all thought we knew what they were thinking, "If they gave the orders, would I shoot."  And I believe that in 1991 some would not fire on unarmed people.

We all got into cars and caravaned to a missile silo, which had been stood down. The days of cutting open the chain on the fence of a nuclear missile site and 70 people going on site and none being arrested are long gone.  Welcome to the anthropocene. 

Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: February 24, 2017, 12:09:40 AM »
Yeah, I knew I had seen it, maybe should have posted it in early February - from Bellona  (a good site and not just good for nuclear and nuclear waste issues - one plucky Norwegian NGO.)

TROMSØ­—Bellona has called for a ban on the use of heavy fuel oils in shipping in the Arctic, and said the industry should apply best available technologies to offset costs.

The European Union echoed the sentiment on Friday, voting to adopt a resolution against heavy fuel oils in Arctic shipping lanes.

Yes, mostly amelioration
Right now, that’s bio-condensed natural gas, and hybrid and electric technology. There are others, but it’s important to take the first step – to ban the dirtiest and cheapest fuel – shipping companies must test and apply new technologies.”

Side note :  For the Arctic Frontiers Jan 25-27 that Bellona was part of - there are some science presentations that have pdf's to download.  But you have to dig to find the interesting ones.*Arctic%20Frontiers%20Science

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: February 20, 2017, 07:30:44 PM »
For a trip down Fram-Nansen memory lane. open source translations of Nansens "Furthest North" Vol. I and II.

Although neither the ship nor the sledges floated - walked to the actual North Pole, it was truly an monumental expedition. 

Hopefully the MOSAIC expedition will lead as charmed a life and bring back data and ideas. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 12, 2017, 08:33:26 PM »
Zizek, since I drive past it, if in Winnipeg at the UM  501 University Crescent.  If you live near any other sites in Canada     - stop by and say, "Hi."

Myself, when I research I can go too large for a focus.  Possible subsets of climate impacts on Canadian fisheries are 1.  species migration  and invasive species.  2.  Since plankton is the base, impacts on plankton.  3.  Focus on the West Coast changes or East Coast changes (cod, seals) or arctic basins. 4.  If you want to bring in something novel, maybe explore "the canaries in the coal mine" - usage of marine bird species populations as in indicator of overall health of ecosystems, marine birds as the litmus test.  Yeah, #4 is myself getting a little too carried away.

If you have a technical background, but not grounded in specifics, sites like  might serve as an initial search engine.   It is technical enough, but not rigorous, but does give you the direct sources.  Hey, good luck.

Dr. Barber has a new video up also about Arctic change.   

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 12, 2017, 05:34:46 PM »
A new study from the USGS on ocean bed methane release.  Study was received Aug 2016 and is online now. 

The Physorg version

Gas hydrate breakdown unlikely to cause massive greenhouse gas release

From towards the end

"Our review is the culmination of nearly a decade of original research by the USGS, my coauthor Professor John Kessler at the University of Rochester, and many other groups in the community," said USGS geophysicist Carolyn Ruppel, who is the paper's lead author and oversees the USGS Gas Hydrates Project. "After so many years spent determining where gas hydrates are breaking down and measuring methane flux at the sea-air interface, we suggest that conclusive evidence for release of hydrate-related methane to the atmosphere is lacking."

The source study online at AGU "Review of Geophysics" - non paywalled.

I am not sure, but I believe this is the first time I have seen the 84 times more potent than CO2 in the 20 year time frame (IPCC 2013) in a refereed journal.  Read in the first paragraph of the introduction. 

It is really large, large  and my shortest quick take away is that it is not disputing methane emissions from the ocean and especially the Arctic Ocean.  It ls laying some of the emissions onto submerged permafrost  - more research needed.

From the second paragraph of Conclusions.

At high latitudes, the key factors contributing to overestimation of the contribution of gas hydrate dissociation to atmospheric CH4 concentrations are the assumption that permafrost-associated gas hydrates are more abundant and widely distributed than is probably the case [Ruppel, 2015] and the extrapolation to the entire Arctic Ocean of CH4 emissions measured in one area. Appealing to gas hydrates as the source for CH4 emissions on high-latitude continental shelves lends a certain exoticism to the results but also feeds catastrophic scenarios. Since there is no proof that gas hydrate dissociation plays a role in shelfal CH4 emissions and several widespread and shallower sources of CH4 could drive most releases, greater caution is necessary.

From 6.3 Gas Hydrates in Glaciated areas. 

Figure 11 shows nominal conditions for permafrost evolution and gas hydrate stability beneath cold and warm-base ice sheets. Even where permafrost is lacking beneath warm-base ice, gas hydrate is stable at shallow depths in the sedimentary section for ice sheets a mere 500 m thick. Such shallow hydrates could form from microbial gas instead of the thermogenic gas thought to be sourcing many contemporary PAGH [Ruppel, 2015]. Anomalously shallow gas hydrates have been postulated for the Yamal Peninsula [Chuvilin et al., 2002] and invoked to explain some observations on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf [Shakhova et al., 2010a], as discussed above. Neither area was glaciated at the LGM, and the shallow gas releases on which the anomalous hydrate interpretation is based [Chuvilin et al., 2002] are common in permafrost areas during drilling and thought to be unrelated to gas hydrate dynamics. Even if proof for anomalous gas hydrates is eventually found, it remains uncertain how the pressure and temperature conditions at shallow depths (e.g., less than 100 m) could have been within the gas hydrate stability field absent recent glacial loading or a highly unusual mixture of hydrocarbons.

Intact arctic continental shelf gas hydrate certainly remains today within or beneath subsea permafrost, but distinguishing hydrate- from ice-bearing sediments based on geophysical data is nearly impossible without direct sampling.

Some will read this and think that the USGS is severely underestimating the methane emissions from the oceans and others will read the "conclusive evidence for release of hydrate-related methane to the atmosphere is lacking" and mentally black out "hydrate-related" and mentally scrub out methane impacts to CO2Equiv.  But for a quick read, my opinion is not a bad distillation. 

For me - it is not a counterpoint to the possibility of spiking methane emissions, but a caveat specific to methane hydrate emissions via the clathrate gun scenario.  Must read more..   

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: February 11, 2017, 04:45:48 PM »
Lots of interesting stuff.  I did not post  in freezing because it was way off topic.  Working a lot of hours.  But going back to the catalyst of this post, quote unquote, technically minded writers adding or subtracting 32 when they should only be multiplying for temperature differentials. 

I have no idea how to stop that all too common error. I have seen it all too many times, and I do not recall retractions. I would guess that it is singular to U.S. citizens trying to convert from the original Celsius.  That might also explain the lack of retractions for that mistake from that subset.  If Rep. Charles Grassley (later Senator and Finance Chair) had not basically singularly stopped the metric system in the US, we would not be having this discussion. 

I was going to do a silly question of at what point does Kelvin and Fahrenheit intersect because I was too lazy to do the math but   does.  574.5875

The rest / Re: Fukushima leak emergency: LIVE UPDATES
« on: February 10, 2017, 01:06:02 AM »
And others agree not really a spike.

This first sentence is extremely misleading in a number of ways. “Has reached a maximum” has given some readers an assumption that this reading is higher than previous readings for this location. That is not true. This is the first reading ever taken in the pedestal under the reactor vessel of unit 2. You have to have previous readings to claim this one is higher than previous readings. Since there are no previous readings there is no way to claim this is some form of an increase, a “spike” in radiation or in some way higher than before. This also would not be the highest reading since the meltdowns. Higher readings obviously took place, without some method of comprehensive recording there is no data of that to compare the new reading to. Ambiguous wordings seem to have led to a game of telephone where this morphed into rumors of a new problem at the plant.

I have been attempting off and on to find a technically based web site with updated Fukushima updates.  I had enjoyed all posts by Fairewinds and also those by the Union of Concerned Scientists.  but the pace slows down. 

I am pleasantly surprised at my serendipity at finding  with the above posts.  They give the original sources and nice graphics.  They also have a nice layout and  fast rendering of the html and css code

For me a nice find of graphics and data comparisions is their Fukushima and Chernobyl events. It is from 2013,but -

These estimate ranges are presented to give an idea of the broad range of official estimates and are not a specific scientific study. What these widely divergent estimates show is that there is a need for more honest and accurate study of this issue.

Fukushima Vs. Chernobyl
We looked at these two disasters since they are frequently compared to each other. The extremely high levels, all in petabecquerels are problematic even if there is a considerable difference between the two.

The rest / Re: Fukushima leak emergency: LIVE UPDATES
« on: February 09, 2017, 06:00:34 AM »
Please correct me if I am wrong, but these numbers are inside one reactor.  Nice to have something on FOX though.  530 Sieverts. Wow.  Would be nice to be able to compare that to recently removed fuel rods from USNavy reactors - their higher Ur235 initial levels and longer usage makes for a very intense mixture of radiations, heat and large numbers of transuranics. I am not going to hold my breath to get that number.     

So there is a 2 meter - 6 foot hole - not that surprising, I would guess it is downwards toward bedrock.  Any decent assumption on the event there involves TEPCO and the Japanese government delaying, evading, minimalizing and lying about raw data and the situation. The harebrained scheme to stem groundwater infiltration and the slow removal of the hanging fuel rods are to me greater concerns. 

What makes me petulant is not the slow dribble of data but the continued ranking of the Fukushima event as being less than the Chernobyl event.Yes, I read Yablokov and Nesterenko's  NYAcademy of Sciences #1181  at Nukewatch (they had it for sale) while visiting friends.  It is free to download on the web.  Yes, a lot of people died and people still die each day due to Chernobyl. 

Consequences of the Catastrophe for
People and the Environment

But being the pessimistic sort, I believe that the damage to the Japanese people, the Japanese ecology and the ecology of the Pacific ocean (many of fission products bio-accumulate) are at least on par with Chernobyl, if not today, well then in a decade. 

Silent on FOX news however was the fact that 20 plus similar GE "Mark I" reactors with the fuel pools high above the ground are still being utilized in the US.  Now to me  that is an emergency that can be reduced.  They  got 40 years production out of most of these prototypes.  They need to be mothballed and the fuel steel dry casked.   Don't hold your breath.  peace out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Slow Transition
« on: February 06, 2017, 06:48:09 AM »
Hmm ...

.  We  define  this  transition  period  to  start  when  the  30 year  mean  September 
Arctic  sea ice  area  in  a  particular  simulation  decreases  for 
the first time to an area that is 10% or more below the simulation’s  minimum  sea
ice  cover  during  the  period  1850–1900,  and  to  end  once  the  30 year  mean  September  Arctic 
sea ice area drops for the first time below 1 million km2  (see
table S1 for specific numbers).

Is this some sanity?  They are not using the 5 consequtive years definition.  i.e.,1559.0.html  and appear to be utilizing area and not extent. 

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 28, 2017, 08:44:51 PM »

So a Trump was coming regardless of the outcome of the last election.   ...  Thanks.  I proof and foof occasionally on the DistributedProofreadersCanada site on the 1946 War Crimes Trials.  Trump is no Hitler.  Some comparisons to "Il Duce" might be more appropriate.  I read something recently that was comparing him to the Caesars of history.  Bread and Circuses.  Bread and circuses until there is none. 

Vol 1   
Vol 2

To search on FadedPage (where DPCanada sends its finished books) use Various as the Author or search Major War Criminals.  Note - no restriction on the above to US - as it is "accordance with the direction of the International Military Tribunal by the Secretariat of the Tribunal, under the jurisdiction of the Allied Control Authority for Germany." imho. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 27, 2017, 01:17:41 AM »

About the Iowa leak.
"It's a big one — it's significant," Jeff Vansteenburg of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources
- Jeff is an o.k. guy. 

 I waded and pounded stakes into the creek bed  with Jeff VanSteenburg - It was for setting up an event based analysis of nitrates in some creeks once  Maybe 34 years ago.  UofIowa Hygienic lab and DNR collaboration.  Time flies. 

And noticed on the same page is the Dakota pipeline protests in Iowa, with my other alma mater, the Des Moines Catholic Worker is in the thick of protests at Branflakes - Branstads office and also on the Big Muddy.. 

Note, do not go limp when doing civil disobedience (Iowa national guard troops deployed to Central America) at the Iowa capital.  It was excruciatingly painful  in 1987 when I had my first introduction to pain compliance techniques  in the elevator at the hands of a Captain and Lieutenant of the State Troopers. 

Much nicer in Canada.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: January 22, 2017, 05:24:10 PM »
And I am blissfully unaware.  I only ignore 4 people.  When used with discretion, ignore is a useful tool. 

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: January 21, 2017, 08:28:40 PM »
I can't help but be sarcastic about the "US_final.pdf" part of the url.

Arctic Background / Re: Historic Arctic Expeditions
« on: January 21, 2017, 08:18:07 PM »
And  has several open source Arctic Books as well.  Death plus fifty is still alive and well in Canada.  Distributed Proofreaders Canada is their source.  Newest is]  I did proof and foof on it.  Also on the Richardson book on Franklin. 

If the Author (and translator) has been dead since 1966, it's  probably fair game for contributing scans and ocr to Distributed Proofreaders Canada. 

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 15, 2017, 05:21:39 AM »
JimD   Thanks.  A whole lot of gnashing of teeth and rending clothes for me when the Gulf War started, the first one.  I left sheltering the homeless and structured, loving nonviolent things at the missile silos after that. North Dakota dropped a few charges for January 15 MLK actions in the nuclear "fields" that the US federal government could have picked up.  I went from the nonviolent community of resistance and sheltering the homeless to living and working with the mentally challenged in another type of community also dedicated to nonviolence and faith. 

The one TRILLION(channeling Buddy) dollars allocated for nuclear weaponry modernization was Obama's cholce.  I am sorry, but it does not get much more evil than that.  Especially with several recent retirees of the highest level of "defense" in unison emphatically chorusing the mantra that all land based missiles need to go over the last few year prior to Obama'a decision.  To continue to compare how much more negative, or dangerous or evil is the American empire under Trump as opposed to previous flavours is moot. 

 . . . all of JimD's other examples.  Again, Thanks.

I still have friends getting arrested at nuclear weapons sites, drone facilities or nuclear manufacturing sites., Cathy Breen and Kathy K. fly off to Afghanistan and Syria regularly when not at the NY Catholic Worker or Chicago., Brian T. and John L. and sparrowhawk post at Counterpunch about,  empire.  I have been arrested about nuclear weapons with most of those, although it has been about 25 years.  30 years since I worked in a laboratory. 

So for me, the question, is how to live and proceed living near a floundering, wounded empire that is ratcheting up it's level of violence the last 7 decades.  Me, probably moving back south and being with my parents for a bit as they near their end and working with the mentally challenged.  And, as I did read "The Arctic Year" by Freuchen in 5th grade, I plan to continue to observe the Arctic and cryosphere, I am a creature of habit, but I do grow and learn. 

If you are Christian, you might like the book by Jean Vanier, that he finished in a retreat in Aleppo, Syria, "Drawn into the Mystery ... Through the Gospel of John. There are very few books about the Johanine gospel, and few good ones.   If you are not Christian, the Massey Lecture book called "Becoming Human" - also by Jean is a nice book. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: December 31, 2016, 06:17:52 PM »
And when the final numbers come up, after being double-checked and tiny data corrections -, I would just love for the correct number of significant digits to be used.  A piddling bête noire, but it is mine.  Mis-usage of sig. digits was the easiest way for anyone to lose points in physics and chemistry in my day.  After reading some of the papers (and a good AGU youtube)  listed on this forum on the technology of the satellite data acquisition - I feel the excess digits inflates peoples beliefs in the precision of the sensing. 

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: December 26, 2016, 11:33:23 PM »
I have liked Mr. Binoy  Kampmark's writing for years.  He is slighty away from his usual subject matter, but elegant as always.  Maybe I am just a sap for any "thanatos" mention.

As Greenpeace East Asia notes through the toxic cloud darkly, “Millions of people in China are breathing a hazardous cocktail of chemicals everyday.  These chemicals are caused by coal-fired power plants, factories and vehicles, and are responsible for heart disease, stroke, respiratory illnesses, birth defects and cancer.”
  actually a quote of a quote. 

And Mr. Kampmark's views on the new tax

These amounts, or details of the new law, are hardly being delivered from a unified front.  The bureaucrats are fighting acrimonious turf wars, from the State Taxation Administration to the Ministry of Environmental protection.  In this age, it will take far more than levies to reduce the pollution of cities, a problem that was even faced, albeit unsatisfactorily, in Han China and ancient Rome.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: December 18, 2016, 05:23:01 PM »
I can't lay my hands or eyes on the sources, but I am pretty sure that the splitting of methane in the atmosphere is rate limited by the hydroxyl radical. 

Found some
Ann. Rev. Phys. Chern. 1988. 39: 367-94

A R. Ravishankara Aeronomy Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Boulder,Colorado 80303

Shame it is not opensource   DOI: 10.1146/annurev.pc.39.100188.002055  Especially shameful as footnote one states
1 The US Government has the right to retain a nonexclusive, royalty-free license ...

Copy and paste not working on the pdf  Highlights  - 30% of the carbon monoxide is from CH4 oxidation.    The photolysis of methane is unimportant below the mesoshpere. 

Anyone finding a newer and or better distillation of methane atmospheric oxidation and posting it would be a stellar individual..  Possibly post into the Methane thread with the excitable name.  peace out

More on the Robert Tyler,  Boyler, Catherine Walker, Stephanie Schollaert Uz via FM16 press conference and youtube

Understanding how much heat is stored in the ocean is a key part of deciphering and predicting climate change. Measuring that heat, however, is difficult and currently relies on a scattered network of buoys and sensors. A novel method presented at this briefing aims to quantify ocean heat content by satellite, using tricks of Earth’s magnetic field. The impacts of ocean heat, including new results presented at AGU, range from melting ice to affecting the base of the food web.

I am watching now. 

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: December 08, 2016, 01:24:28 AM »
Finally, snow, but not the predicted 30 cm.  Still saw over 200 geese and also ducks last two days around the Red River and the Seine in Winnipeg, MB CA but that might be it until March or April when the first few geese return to the Seine. 

Ice finally starting on the Red, especially due to the snow dump after the warmest November here ever.  Please not frazil ice as we can't skate or ski on the river if it does.  Peace out. 

The rest / Slashdot effect
« on: November 23, 2016, 12:00:22 AM »
Meteorologist/journalist Eric Holthaus gives a shout-out to the Forum as "a fairly obscure message board of sea ice enthusiasts"

from The 2016/2017 freezing season  message Reply 946 message 94661   Sigmetnot

Well, we will see if we get a spike of new members with the increase in publicity. I remember when I started at Distributed Proofreaders via the post at /.  (Slashdot).    What a zoo for a few weeks with a boatload of new members at DP. Note- I like the utf8 formatting and life plus 50 copyright rules at Distributed Proofreaders Canada and Faded Page more these days, but I do reside in Canada.  And Rachel Carson has books there.  Along with more than a few books about Arctic exploration, old but good. 

It would be nice to get a few more excellent posters with strong signal to noise postings.  However it is also nice to not  be overwhelmed.    Neither of these will probably happen. 

For myself, I find  that adding a person to my ignore list about every two to three months works wonders for keeping calm here.  I am up to 4. 

To all those who post scientific papers, AGU or other quality videos - I deeply appreciate it.  I was spending lots of time sitting in hospitals and getting paid to be with friends who are mentally challenged.  Printing out a paper or two to take with on the bus ride in and time they were asleep was a counterpoint I enjoyed.  Peace out.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 18, 2016, 03:37:05 AM »
Slightly different version of earthquakes based on fracking - not based on the waste disposal but the hydraulic fracturing itself. 

Hydraulic fracturing has been inferred to trigger the majority of injection-induced earthquakes in western Canada, in contrast to the midwestern United States where massive saltwater disposal is the dominant triggering mechanism. A template-based earthquake catalog from a seismically active Canadian shale play, combined with comprehensive injection data during a 4-month interval, shows that earthquakes are tightly clustered in space and time near hydraulic fracturing sites. The largest event [moment magnitude (MW) 3.9] occurred several weeks after injection along a fault that appears to extend from the injection zone into crystalline basement. Patterns of seismicity indicate that stress changes during operations can activate fault slip to an offset distance of >1 km, whereas pressurization by hydraulic fracturing into a fault yields episodic seismicity that can persist for months.

Hopefully we will see more Canadian based studies now that Harpo is out. 

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