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Messages - wallen

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2020, 10:55:26 AM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December

From their twitter page.

Our service will be stopped from Sep. 4th 12:00 JST  to 7th 12:00 JST by planned electrical  outage for legal inspection.
We sincerely apologize for inconveniencing you for a long time.
2:47 PM · Sep 1, 2020·Twitter Web App

A legal inspection?   The outage may have been beyond their control

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: September 06, 2020, 07:18:41 AM »
You'd need to be exceedingly adventurous to try it!
[/quote]

I agree it would, but Worldview is an interesting view

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: September 06, 2020, 02:26:43 AM »
Looking at Worldview today, it appears the main northwest passage would be passable

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 01:45:52 AM »
I am wondering if the surging ice stream from the Vavilov Ice Cap has been reason for the delayed melting of the sea ice in the Severnaya Zemlya region. What impact would this have had on the salinity levels in that area.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 02:07:20 PM »
A tad off subject, but I would like to give credit to Oren, for his handling of the Moderator position during this melt season. I am sure at times he may have felt that Neven handed him a stick of dynamite. At times the comments this season have been fair contentious, but I think Oren has reigned with the required fairness and discipline.

Thank you Oren.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:37:44 AM »
I understand that the Sea Ice Extent is based on a there being 15% or less ice per square kilometer. This is a very conservative figure and I believe under estimates how low the Sea Ice Extents actually are.  Has anyone actually worked out the Extent using a higher figure, EG 30 or 40% ?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »
Why are people more excited at the ice disappearing and getting their figures right than the disaster the planet now faces because of this?
When we are all looking at the side effects of the melted Arctic will some people be saying well at least my JAXA prediction was right.

Would suggest that most are so tired of trying for years to get those in power, to put the right policies and steps in place to address the issue.  Sadly, nothing that goes on from the science side is likely to have the required impact, unless there is an 'Armageddon" like event. So maybe the sooner the better. FRIV alluded to this, earlier in the season.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 10:27:50 AM »
To put it in other terms John, as the tide is not much different than years past, this doesn't sound like a sufficient explanation by itself.

Could it be as simple as a strengthening of the flow from the Atlantic. Causing more warmer water up the Greenland side ?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 05:11:15 AM »
Not sure if it just my system, but Corrective Reflectance 7,2,1 doesn't seem to open up past the East Greenland coast, today.

 I am wondering about the pending Fram export during the freeze season. My understanding is that more sea ice exports during this time, but given there virtual no strong fast ice along the coast to help retard the sea ice as it moves.
But looking at the pitiful condition of the ice above Greenland, I think this would further hinder any slowing of Fram export, till deeper into winter.

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 09, 2020, 09:16:31 AM »
Given how fragile the ice is, I will looking at how much it impacts in opening the Lincoln Sea over the next 30 or so days. Rather than export volume.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:52:49 AM »
Surprised no-one has mentioned the resolute nature of the ice on the southern side of Severnaya Zemlya. Also a close look on the ice caps there, the layered nature of them would seem to indicate how badly they have been impacted this season. Have had to go back to 2011, to find something similar, though hard to see through the cloud.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 05, 2020, 01:29:12 PM »
What is the causing the rich Aqua like blue color in the Barents sea. Is obvious a very large area, seen easily on Worldview today. Could it be an Algae Bloom??

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:48:02 PM »
Curious to know if anyone uses the Geographic view on Worldview  to look at the Arctic. The different angle frequently gives a spectacular view that is often obscured by cloud from the Arctic view. The view for 2/8 was a great example. It showed many holes in the ice pack that were otherwise difficult to see.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 02, 2020, 01:50:59 PM »
When looking at Worldview as it opens on a daily basis, if one adds the corrected reflectance 7,2,1, more of the image opens in the clockwise direction. Why??

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 01:12:04 PM »
Thawing Thunder I think your quadrilateral needs to be smaller on the Atlantic and Siberian side.

Just looking at that, the entire Eastern hemisphere could be ice free up to 80 degree Lat, well before the end of August

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:24:16 AM »
Thank you for that reply Friv.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:26:49 AM »
Tend agree with Friv, about 2020 not finishing 3rd or higher. Given the state of the ice and the considerable extent lead it still has over the previous years. Gerontocrat's assessment that as at 29/7 (For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  20.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.), I believe gives credence to this.

This aside, I am curious as to what would be the worst specific scenario(Weather wise) for the ice from now to the end of the melt season.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:07:51 AM »
Seen several mentions of MYI. Except for the odd floe, seems to be next none of it left.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 11:23:31 AM »
This doesn't look like healthy ice at all. Admittedly other low years had a lot of open water in this region by this date, but I see no reason to believe this will not be open water by September.

Agree, I think Lincoln Sea is a great example of this. Last season there were a considerable number of large floes being sucked down the Naires Strait drain. There were frequent guesses as to where a floe would break up, jam in the strait, etc. Naires has been very late to open this season, but where are these floes this year?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 04:59:56 AM »
The number of people here  that appear to be suddenly jumping off the record melt band wagon. The high that hung around for ever and a day has moved and Jaxa finally had a sub 100k day. 99k(Shock horror) .

Meanwhile 2020 as at 21/7 was still 626k lower than any other year. Looking at  the AMSR 2 image for 22/7, I wont be surprised if it jumps up again, as the ESS appears to have vanished over night.

 Gerontocrats data(As at 21/7) shows that just average melt will still see an extent of 3.29million km2 . For it to finish 4+ million km2, it would have to have 24% less than average melt.

The heat built into the waters particularly on the Russian side, most certainly isn't going to disappear in a blink.

While the weather patterns aren't showing a super doom high. It hasn't backed off to non melting conditions. Don't know what temperatures are occurring in the various regions, but the anomalies look to to be reasonably high.

I certainly am no scientist of any type, but even to a blind Freddie like me, it is likely to take something special to stop the rest of this melt season in it's tracks.

Whether it breaks 2012 is to be seen, but it has a been a season to remember, with a lot to learn from and still a long way to go.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 02:53:14 PM »
At this rate, there will be next to no sea ice left south of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?

After proof reading and correcting my previous post, a further look would suggest that arc will almost extend from 0 degrees to 150E by the end of July.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:44:03 AM »
At this rate, there will be next to no sea ice left south of 80N and the arc between 90E and 150E, by the end of July. Wonder when this last happened ?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 02:59:17 PM »
And here is the whole picture SST wise. Click to play.

Would appear that a swag of warmer water is headed through the Bering strait and quite rapidly. Will watch with great interest.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 07:52:20 AM »
At this rate any thoughts of several large polynas opening well inside 80N and added impact?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2020, 08:11:13 AM »
Mmm interested in knowing how much of this is from Hudson Bay. JAXA seems to show quite drop there from 6/7 to 7/7.  Bit obscured by cloud, but Worldview doesn't show the same level of drop, IMO.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 04, 2020, 07:24:23 AM »
Beaufort Sea ice should be fine at the end of the season. Everywhere else...  :-\
However the bottom melt in the Beaufort sea will continue well into September and even October. It's not the safe place to store the extra volume.

Added to that the decimation of the other seas that are adjacent to the Beaufort Sea, what impact that may have.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 12, 2020, 03:11:15 AM »
Worldview today, shows Barrow strait starting to break up.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 03:09:30 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.

No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 12:55:09 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 19, 2020, 08:09:30 AM »
It's certainly too early to begin melt ponding in the Arctic Basin. And I can't recall any source that tracks melt ponding quantitatively, though looking at Worldview shows a telltale bluish color when melt ponding is widespread.


With so much multi  directional cracking deep in the CAB, can this impact on the occurrence of melt
ponding ?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 16, 2020, 01:35:45 PM »
I know am a novice at this, but cracking in various directions to this extent deep in the CAB, I would think is very concerning, this early in the melting season. See Worldview 16/4 towards the pole from the ESS.  Would ad a pic but not good at this...yet.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:15:58 AM »
When you look at Worldview and see the "Blackout " area extending daily, is this the extending limit of 24 hour darkness or a visual limitation of the satellite as the Arctic progresses toward winter.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: September 14, 2019, 09:00:50 AM »
Could some please explain why recent images of the North pole on Worldview, are very bright, with an almost yellowish tinge.
                                     Thanks.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 01:55:34 AM »
I don't care what the extent, area, volume or any data readings show, looking at the Worldview of the Pole today, it is pitiful to see it in such a sad state. Would this be as bad as anyone has seen it before at this stage of the season ???

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 03, 2019, 06:12:46 AM »
Think it is going to need the Bering Strait and Svalbard and possibly FJL to be ice free at the start of the melt season. Which isn't that far fetched.

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:44:07 AM »
Wow, looking at Lincoln Sea. No floes left that you could cork a bottle of wine with, let alone the Nares Strait

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 07, 2019, 06:51:49 AM »
When your going down the highway at 100mph and another vehicle goes past you at 150mph. :o

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 05:52:03 AM »
With approx 40 days till the end of the melt season, all cards are still on the deck.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:13:45 AM »
If I am not being presumptuous, it is well worth viewing the Arctic on Worldview using the Geographic Projection. Gives an amazing perspective of how bad the state of the ice pack is.

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 02, 2019, 11:21:17 AM »
All ice is bits and pieces in Lincoln. As long as there is a current, we'll lose a lot of ice this way. But IMHO summer export is not the unusual figure here. The real harm was done last winter.


I would not underestimate the impact of Nares Strait, going forward. With so little MYI left, the longer it continues to pull ice out of Lincoln Sea, the poorer any winter recovery will be.  Actually a poll on when Nares strait stops flowing this year could  be very interesting. That is , IF it does stop flowing.

41
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 02, 2019, 02:52:40 AM »
A viewing of the West side of Greenland on Worldview with corrective reflectance (7-2-1) The sheer volume of melt and I would image runoff is staggering.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2019, 02:09:18 AM »
GRAPHS Last bits and pieces..

Okhotsk - finished,
St Lawrence - will NSIDC mask out the last artefacts today (July 1), or will they survive until Aug 1?

Hudson - slightly faster melt than 2018 and very much at 2010's average. No big deal. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks

Baffin - impressive melt this year. Will be near-as-dammit finished in 3 weeks? 



Of these, the early melt of Baffin I think would be the most concerning. I would have thought that a warmer Baffin, aside from melting out the Nares Strait rubble faster, would impact on the possible opening of the NW passage
 

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 01:15:00 AM »
End of June set up 2019/2016/2007 comparison, unfortunately, 2012 data missing.
One big difference is that the Beaufort polyna disappeared very early this year. Have got to wonder what impact this may have as the seasom progresses.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 03:54:08 AM »
The ice around the entrance to the Nares Strait has just come free from cloud with today's (June 17) Worldview images.  This ice is looking mighty blue (see below).

I was surprised at this blueness of the ice.  I went back through Worldview images for the June15-17 period as far as 2001.  (I looked at each year over a three day window to avoid the risk of being fooled by clouds over the ice.) The only years where the ice was comparatively as blue in this area, to my eye, were 2012 and 2016.   In both of those years, the northern end Nares Strait seemed to be pretty much blocked by ice.  This year, entrance to the Strait is comparatively free. 

I am not sure what this might mean, but it the blueness of the ice and the openness of the Strait does seem to be an unusual combination of features.


Has the impact on the Western CAB  by an open Nares Strait been underestimated this season. Not unreasonable to expect it to remain open and become more damaging, since most of the MYI has now gone.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 07:42:50 AM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

Can add to that Bolshay Udina volcano in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Looks like it will erupt. It's postion relative to the Bering strait is more interesting.

47
Assuming this remains opens, would be interested to hear of the impact it may have, over the rest of the melt season.

48
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 10, 2019, 07:27:04 AM »
BOOM!

To me , this is the best image of the season. I love doing jigsaws of unusual images. This would be brilliant.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 05:23:12 AM »
 A simple viewing of Worldview, show many, many cracks across the basin. Amid these cracks are a great number of holes in the ice (Mini polynas ??) What is the possible impact these may have as the season progresses and no, a lot of them are still there day after day.

50


And for Miami ? Is the land sinking or rising? (Louisiana is sinking, Scotland is rising)

As the man said - Miami Real Estate? Rent, don't buy. Sell if you can, or accept that definitely one day it will be worthless..

From what I hear Miami is stuffed,even if they build walls and try to pump the water out. Apparently the place is built on porous limestone, so the water table will rise as the sea rises

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