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Messages - Rippleillusion

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Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 08, 2018, 09:17:40 PM »
Numb to it all now. It seems California is toast. Makes my fire-prone British Columbia look tame in comparison.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 19, 2018, 03:22:16 AM »
Highly optimistic as usual IMO. More and more feedbacks kicking in at a faster rate should have us at 4 C well before then no? Not to mention economic shocks will take out the cooling effect of aerosols.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 18, 2018, 12:59:30 AM »
Every bit of the previous post is pretty dead on. Our near future is science fiction material without a happy ending.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 02, 2017, 12:43:19 AM »
18z GFS ops.  The models are having no shortage of extreme disaster scenarios, and this is the worst one yet.

Oh my word...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 01, 2017, 07:43:03 AM »
Again it's just one operational run and one solution of many to come over the next 10 days from multiple models, but the 0z GFS would strike a crippling blow on the US.  It takes a cat 4 with circa 140 mph winds and a giant surge up the Chesapeake Bay.  The Navy base in Norfolk would be wrecked (although the fleet would be sent to sea), and there would be significant damage and disruption in DC, Baltimore, Philly and NY, and points inland with a likely large wind field and battering waves and surge along the coast.  Thankfully this solution is unlikely to verify.

If Harvey doesn't become the straw that breaks the camels back, I would put my money on that one. Holy cow. As you say, its unlikely. But wherever this thing ends up theres going to be trouble.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 11:04:43 PM »

"Governor, again, thank you very much," Trump said. "We won't say congratulations. We don't want to do that. We don't want to congratulate. We'll congratulate each other when it's all finished."

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 09:08:06 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

It took years to accomplish, but in 2015, President Obama signed a regulation that "required public infrastructure projects that received taxpayer dollars to do more planning for floods, including elevating their structures to avoid future water damage and alleviate the burden on taxpayers."

Trump repealed it two weeks ago.

Trump rolled back federal standards to flood-proof infrastructure projects a few weeks before Harvey hit

I just don't even know what to say anymore.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 08:06:15 PM »
I've heard many people opine that humanity won't wake up until a real disaster hits a major city. I disagree with them personally, because I think that has happened multiple times already with no response. but for sake of argument I would say that if this doesn't do it, nothing will.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 17, 2017, 08:10:45 PM »
You guys see the Steve Bannon interview? This just gets more delicious with each passing hour! Honestly I wonder if his team actually looks at each other, let alone talks about what they want to do. This is downright pathetic honestly.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 11, 2017, 07:19:48 PM »
Haha sorry guys, its a common tongue in cheek way to refer to our area, but I realize posters from around the world obviously wouldn't be versed in our colloquialisms. Glad I cheered somebody up, because its brutal over here! The smoke is giving everybody headaches. Apparently we might get some rain this weekend, but overall this summer is just part of a trend of droughts in a traditionally very wet area.

Meanwhile, in Chicago, we are continuing a seemingly endless string of gorgeous weather today, 27C, partly cloudy, light breezes from the north.

Last year Vancouver fluked out a nice summer. Enjoy it while it lasts! This summer has been a dungeon.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 11, 2017, 03:30:33 AM »
Not that we don't deserve it, but were sucking in wildfire smoke here in Western Canada that's making the air worse than Beijing. The Wetcoast has received less than a mm of rain since June 18. Unbelievable. (but not really)

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: November 15, 2016, 08:13:16 PM »
We chose this path and it is a very hard one.  We have passed the point where we could have avoided disaster so disaster it is going to be. Dig in and try and deal with it for if you don't deal with reality it will deal with you.


While I agree that there is no point in crying over spilt milk, nevertheless part of preparing oneself for the hard times to come is to continue reaching out for the greater good.


Ok.  I suppose that is true.  But who gets to define 'the greater good'?  Unfortunately there does not seem to be a single answer.

A great link on this subject lies below.  Illargi can be pretty articulate at times.  His emphasis is pretty much totally towards the financial and he is a little weak on climate change and such.  But what he posted is just about the best I have seen.

While I do agree that he articulates the political situation far better than most that I've seen, does his refusal to mention the climate emergency not invalidate his basic premise? I'm beyond frustrated seeing people far more intellectual than I refuse to acknowledge the situation. We're on a different planet now. It's an unpredictable, and quite possibly a soon uninhabitable place. To talk about self sufficient communities without even mentioning the incredible challenges they (we) will face from mother nature's revenge seems pointless to me. Why waste his and everybody's time? Are we all under some unspoken rule that we shall assume some incredible best case scenario, since planning for an apocalyptic future seems relatively pointless?

Putting that aside for a second, I have to agree with whomever said that Trump's appointments seem to squash the argument that Trump is going to be the President for "all Americans". This situation is entirely unpredictable, and to assume that he is going to compromise and become more moderate seems like a random and hopeful guess at this point. We will see of course.

The rest / Re: Presidential poll for US citizens on the forum
« on: November 10, 2016, 02:08:02 AM »
This is quite something now, isn't it. I personally suspect the Donald will be fairly quickly cast aside and be the first "outsider" president. I suppose not much different than Dubya. A puppet for the Republicans, exactly the opposite of what his supporters supposedly voted him in for. But not much better for the rest of us. We'll see if that's where things go. Either way it's about to get real hot in here, and I'm very curious at what point will we see them budge on their ridiculous CC stance.

Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: November 05, 2016, 11:09:30 PM »
Thank you to all for your kind welcome and golden advice! Like many here I do believe that logically, despite our circumstances it is wise to try to live life as fully engaged as possible. Pursuing songwriting/music with vigour (user name is my band name) and in conjunction with my current feelings about the near term future (my opinion being unavoidable NTHE). Being lucky enough to live in Vancouver, I also enjoy hiking, although the extent to which going out in the wild is a distraction for me is quite miniscule. I'm quite observant on the changes happening out there.

However I find that my greatest escape is simply coming on here and reading the brilliant comments. Those smart (and courageous) enough to continue to study the arctic even as it must be gutting for them. By those with creative solutions. You all inspire me and quite often keep me entertained and therefore sane, and able minded enough to continue to educate, protest, change my lifestyle, etc, even though in my heart I believe our condition is very much fatal. So thank you for that!

One thing I am doing is I'm keeping vigilant to detect any physical health consequences that may happen in my west coast habitat. First thing I really noticed was the summer of 2015 contained significant waves of wildfire smoke that choked the oxygen out of the air. This past summer we had an algae bloom that broke records and turned the water a slimy green. Surely that affected the health of our remaining coastal ecosystem. So far people haven't collectively noticed in any significant way. It's truly bizarre.

Welcome to the other side. Some of my colleges engaged in climate change and adaptation work call it the "awakening" or "rock bottom". Put the food and drink down. Go outside and get some exercise and enjoy nature where you find it. I find being outside and walking/riding/running/whatever the best distraction and being in better shape has never hurt anybody. Then get up and do something about it. Anything. The more there are of us working on a solution or adaptations to climate change, the better our chance of avoiding or reducing the most horrific consequences. It may not be possible to change our course at this late stage of the game, but I'll be damned if I don't try.  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2016, 09:12:39 PM »
Thank you all for the eye-popping charts and updates. I have quite a deficit of Sea ice knowledge and understanding relative to all of you, but I really haven't seen any recent evidence to support an earth that doesn't become Venus 2.0 within this century. We've got all the energy we need and more to make it happen. That flood website is astounding. Guy Mcpherson looks more like a genius every day. If only this was some other planet that we didn't also happen to rely on for survival...  :-\ Question is, how much time do we have? Do we measure in years, months or days? Who knows at this point. All we can do is keep watching and see what the arctic has in store for us next.

Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: October 09, 2016, 11:58:24 PM »
First post! I wanted to weigh in on the health factors I've noticed the last couple of years.

In the summer of 2015, we were hit here in Southern BC by Smoke waves from surrounding fires. This past summer it's an algae bloom that has found its way into our seafood chain. We've had less rainfall events, meaning the air is smoggier here in the city. And most devastatingly of all, some people had to stop watering their lawns   ;D

Personally my biggest health effect(that I've noticed anyhow) has been emotional. If I don't distract myself significantly, its on my mind 24/7. I've had dreams about AGW. I drink and eat more. I'm less productive and driven. I know these are all choices and feeling sorry for oneself is not the answer, but these are very unique circumstances which I don't think anybody is emotionally prepared for.

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